The Tape

ES opened 7716.25 Thursday, ran 7755.75 and closed 7741.25 right on its 7741.75 print with value from 7720.50 to 7745.25. The overnight opened 7733.75, kept a 7727.25 low, built 7734.75 to 7747.50 on a 7740 print and stopped at 7755, just under the high it was chasing. It trades 7755.75, up through that shelf at the open, but the night left its print at 7740 under Thursday’s and the week built its entire value 7661 to 7713, so there is no volume base anywhere near where price is now. Hold 7755 and 7775 August’s print is the next job with 7810 the ceiling above that. Fail back under it and 7747.50 catches, then 7745.25 and 7741.75, with 7734.75 and 7720.50 Thursday’s value low beneath them.

NQ opened 29524.25 Thursday, ran 29704.25 and closed 29692 near the top of the day on a 29575.50 print with value from 29503 to 29630.75. The overnight opened 29635.50, tagged 29707.25 early and slid the rest of the night, building 29595 to 29654.50 on a 29605 print. It sits on 29683.50 last week’s ceiling, back at Thursday’s close and working the overnight high it could not hold in the dark. The print it built on landed just over 29600, now last week’s POC, August’s and July’s, three months on one price, so the night did its business on top of that shelf instead of under it. Clear 29683.50 and the 29708 stack is the only thing left over it; lose 29600 and 29578.25 the low of the night catches, then 29575.50 and 29503 the floor of Thursday’s value.

CL opened 82.52 Thursday, ran 84.26 and closed 83.63 with the print stranded down at 82.70 and value from 82.01 to 83.56. The overnight opened 83.67, made 83.77 early, built 82.79 to 83.32 on an 83.10 print then fell out the bottom of all of it, with the pit doing 82.25 to 82.67 since. It trades 82.65, holding over 82.34, the heaviest price of the week and the heaviest of August on the same tick. It already poked 82.25 under that number and came back, so the shelf is getting tested rather than lost, and what I do not have is anybody defending it with volume yet. Hold 82.34 and 82.70 Thursday’s print is first with 82.79 and 83.10 over the top, and under 82.34 the 82.01 base of Thursday’s value catches, then 81.99 the low, with 81.25 the week’s floor beneath them.

GC opened 4648.20 Thursday, sold to 4616.20 for the lowest trade the week has seen and closed 4662.70 near the top on a 4665 print. The overnight ran 4667.90, dumped to 4623 and bought all of it back, building 4640.30 to 4666.20 on a 4650.10 print. That print landed on the exact tick where this week’s value bottoms out, and two nights running gold has sold into the 4616 to 4623 pocket and had every bit of it bought back, which is a failed breakdown that has now happened twice. Gold trades 4660.10, back inside Thursday’s value and leaning on 4662.70 where August’s value tops out and Thursday closed, so it has repaired the damage without clearing anything yet. Take 4662.70 and 4666.20 with 4667.90 stacked above it is the work, then 4671.20 Thursday’s ceiling, and under 4650.10 the 4640.30 floor catches, then 4638.40 Thursday’s value low and 4623 where it bottomed.

The Calendar

Friday, August 28 (all times CT):

- 8:45 Chicago PMI for August

- 9:00 The Fed chair’s keynote from Jackson Hole

- 9:00 Michigan consumer sentiment final, with the inflation expectations that ride with it

- 9:00 Preliminary annual revision to payrolls

- 11:30 Another policymaker speaks

- 12:00 Weekly rig count

The 9:00 keynote owns the morning. Everything else on that list is filler next to it.

The Plan

ES:

ES is up through 7755, the shelf the night stopped on, and through Thursday’s 7755.75 sitting on it, two runs at one price in two sessions and it took both at the open. What it does not have is anything underneath, because the week built its value 7661 to 7713 and the night left its print down at 7740. Hold 7755 and 7775 is the print August built with 7810 its ceiling above that, then 7824.50 last week’s high and 7838.50 the highest August has traded. Fail back under 7755 and 7747.50 the top of the night’s value catches it first, then 7745.25 Thursday’s ceiling with 7744 last week’s stacked on it and 7741.75 the print. Those open 7734.75 and 7720.50 where Thursday’s value bottoms, then 7713 the week’s ceiling and 7690 the week’s print with August’s value low on it.

NQ:

29600 is the number, and it is three months of heaviest volume on one price now that August has settled its print there alongside last week and July. NQ built the whole night just over that shelf on 29605, which is the first constructive thing it has done at this level all week. Above, 29654.50 caps the overnight and 29683.50 last week’s ceiling is the next job, then the 29708 stack where the week high, the overnight high and Thursday’s all land on one shelf, with 29931.50 August’s ceiling in clean air over it. Lose 29600 and 29595 goes with it, then 29578.25 the overnight low and 29575.50 Thursday’s print. Under those 29503 the bottom of Thursday’s value opens 29455.20 the week’s ceiling, then 29424.25 the low and 29292.20 where last week’s value began.

CL:

Crude is holding just over 82.34, and that tick is the fulcrum because this week’s heaviest price and August’s heaviest landed on it together. That agreement is why the 82.25 poke this morning got bought back instead of extended. Hold it and 82.70 Thursday’s print is first with 82.79 the floor of the night’s value over it, then 83.10 the print itself and 83.32 its ceiling, with 83.56 Thursday’s and 83.77 the overnight high above them. Clear all of that and 84.36 where last week’s value began is the real gate, then 85.03 the week’s ceiling. Lose 82.34 and 82.01 Thursday’s value low catches with 81.99 the low right under it, then air to 81.25 the week’s floor, 80 July’s print and 79.85 where August’s value begins.

GC:

4650.10 is where the night left its print and it is the exact tick this week’s value bottoms on, which makes it the line. Gold has defended the 4616 to 4623 pocket two nights running and bought back everything both times, and that is a failed breakdown twice over. Above, 4662.70 is the double where August’s value tops out and Thursday closed, then 4666.20 and 4667.90 the high of the night, with 4671.20 Thursday’s ceiling over them. Clear those and 4690.40 last week’s high and 4695 the week’s print are the work, then 4713 and 4755. Lose 4650.10 and 4640.30 catches, then 4638.40 where Thursday’s value bottoms and 4623, with 4616.20 the low of the week under it and 4614.30 where last week’s value topped out below that.

The White Van Stuff

Both index books rebuilt higher overnight and both parked their same-day lids over price, which is the opposite of where they sat midweek. Crude’s book tightened right on top of where price is trading and gold’s structural marks are stranded so far under the market they stopped meaning anything a month ago. Equity vol is the quietest of the four by a mile.

ES: ES took out 7750 at the open and the ladder above it stacks tight, 7760 and 7780 with the same-day lid at 7775 buried in the middle of them. The floor this book gives it today is 7700, a long way under anywhere anybody is trading. Price is 7755.75, over the 7750.

NQ: NQ has three separate marks landing on 29620 today, the pivot, the standing floor and the same-day floor, all on one price and all sitting under the market. Above it the nearest thing is 29700, then the same-day lid at 29800 and the top of the day’s band at 29950.83. Price is 29693.25, under the 29700.

CL: Crude’s band runs 81.32 to 85.76 and price is down in the bottom quarter of it after the overnight rolled over. The 84.00 same-day lid never came into play and the pivot underneath sits at 81.25. Price is 82.65, under the 83.00.

GC: Gold’s structural cap is 4510 and price left it behind weeks ago, so this book has nothing real overhead until 4800. Today’s pivot is 4650, and price is holding over it.

Great, kid. Don’t get cocky.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Tape

ES opened 7678.75 Wednesday, spent the whole day inside a 7671 to 7705.75 box and closed 7692.25 on a 7690 print with value from 7681.75 to 7696.50. The overnight opened 7722, dipped 7706.75 once, built 7718.25 to 7734.50 on a 7726 print and ran 7741.25 for the high of the week. It trades 7711.75, out the bottom of that value and back inside Wednesday’s range. It took the week’s high, printed there exactly once and has already handed back every bit of the night’s work, so this is a pop that has not stuck. Reclaim 7726, the print it built on, and 7734.50 is the first work, then 7741.25 with 7744 last week’s ceiling stacked over it; give up 7718.25 and the night’s low at 7706.75 opens 7696.50 Wednesday’s ceiling with 7693 August’s value low under it.

NQ opened 29174.50 Wednesday, ran 29368.50 and closed 29297.75 on a 29280 print with value from 29207.75 to 29307. The overnight opened 29499.50 already above Wednesday’s high, built 29504 to 29634.25 on a 29619.75 print and tagged 29661.75, the highest trade the week has seen. It trades 29528.75, under 29600, and that number is last week’s POC and July’s POC printing on the same price. When two separate months leave their heaviest volume on one tick that is not a coincidence, and the night walked straight up to it and quit, but what I do not have is the volume following it because the whole cage got built underneath at 29504. Take 29600 back and 29634.25 is the job with 29661.75 over it; under 29504 the low of the night at 29402.50 opens 29368.50 Wednesday’s high and 29307 its ceiling.

CL opened 80.66 Wednesday, ran 83.30 and gave it all back into an 81.93 close with the print up at 82.24 and value from 81.26 to 82.80. Ugly session. The overnight sold right back to 80.66, the exact Wednesday open, then climbed all night to 82.81 and built 81.44 to 82.43 on an 81.55 print. It trades 82.67, through the week’s 82.34 print, and two nights running crude round-tripped this same range and gave it all back while this one has held onto it, which is the difference between repair and somebody actually wanting the price. Stay over 82.43 and 82.81 is the gate to 82.80 Wednesday’s ceiling and 83.30; drop 82.24 the print and 81.55 is next, then 81.44 and 81.26 where Wednesday’s value began.

GC opened 4685 Wednesday, could not hold any of it and closed 4648.90 near the bottom of a 4638.20 to 4690 day with the print stranded up at 4653.20. Weak close. The overnight ran 4697.70 back into the week’s value, dumped to 4618.90 and rebuilt down low, value 4646.40 to 4685 on a 4650 print. That break took out 4638.20, Wednesday’s low and the lowest the week had traded, and bought every bit of it back before the pit ever saw it, which is a failed breakdown. It trades 4639.70, already under that floor and under 4644.40 where Wednesday’s value began; take 4646.40 back and 4653.20 Wednesday’s print is where it starts, then 4666.50 the week’s value low; stay under and 4638.20 opens the gate to 4618.90.

The Calendar

Thursday, August 27 (all times CT):

- 7:30 Weekly jobless claims and continuing claims, with the advance goods trade balance and the wholesale and retail inventory numbers alongside them

- 9:30 Weekly natural gas storage

- 10:00 Kansas City Fed manufacturing and composite indexes for August

- 10:30 Four and eight week bill auctions

- 12:00 Seven year note auction

- 3:30 Fed balance sheet

The seven year at noon is the only thing on here that reaches the long end, and the symposium out west says nothing until tomorrow.

The Plan

ES:

7718.25 is the floor the night built its whole cage on and ES has already given it up. Reclaim 7726, the print the night built on, and 7734.50 the ceiling of that value is the first work, then 7741.25 where the week topped out with 7744 last week’s value ceiling stacked right over it. Clear that shelf and 7775 the POC August built is the next thing with real volume behind it, with 7818 August’s ceiling over that. The honest problem is that all of it happened while nobody was awake and 7741.25 printed exactly once, so nothing up there has been ratified. Give up 7718.25 and 7706.75 catches, then 7696.50 Wednesday’s ceiling and 7693 August’s value low, with 7690 the print and 7681.75 where its value began under them, and 7657.75 last week’s low and 7611 July’s ceiling beneath that.

NQ:

29600 is one price carrying two timeframes, last week’s POC and July’s POC on the same number, and NQ has already been up to it and come off. Take it back and 29634.25, the ceiling the session built, is the job, then 29661.75, the highest the week has traded. Clear that and 29683.50 last week’s value ceiling is all that stands under 29931.50. Buying it here is buying a shelf the night already tried and failed to hold, with the entire cage built underneath at 29504, so the volume is below price and not through it. Under 29504 the low of the night at 29402.50 opens 29368.50 Wednesday’s high and 29307 its ceiling, with 29292.20 last week’s value low, 29280 the print and 29219.20 the base August left beneath them.

CL:

82.34 is the print the week built itself around and crude has cleared it, running 82.81 for a fresh overnight high. Hold 82.43 the night’s ceiling and 82.80 Wednesday’s is the gate, then 83.30 the high it made. Above those, 84.37 the week’s ceiling and 84.36 last week’s value low are the same shelf, with 86.16 August’s ceiling over it. Two nights running crude has made the identical round trip and settled back near where it started, so I want somebody to actually accept a price before I trust the repair. Drop 82.24 Wednesday’s print and 81.55 catches, then 81.44 and 81.26 where Wednesday’s value began, with 80.80 last week’s low sitting on 80, the POC July left.

GC:

4646.40 is the floor of the value the night rebuilt and gold has already lost it, trading 4639.70 with 4638.20 Wednesday’s low right underneath. Hold 4646.40 and 4653.20 Wednesday’s print is where it starts, then 4666.50 where the week’s value begins and 4685 the night’s ceiling. Clear those and 4690.40 last week’s high with Wednesday’s 4690 stacked on it is the gate to 4695 the week’s print and 4721.20 its ceiling. The break under 4638.20 failed and got bought, which is the bull case, but the week’s entire value still sits above price and every push at it since Monday has been sold. Break 4646.40 and 4644.40 goes, then 4638.20 is the gate to 4618.90 with 4614.30 last week’s ceiling under it, and nothing structural beneath that until 4545 the POC last week built.

The White Van Stuff

Both index books rebuilt overnight on the back of one earnings number and the same-day lids ended up underneath price on both of them. Crude’s book is the tightest of the four, and gold’s structural marks are stranded so far below the market they may as well not be there. The equity cage moved up a floor while the two commodities kept theirs exactly where it was.

ES: ES cleared 7720 in the night and has come all the way back through it, which makes that number the whole fight this morning. The lid this book gives it today is 7750 and the pivot is 7695, so price is between them with nothing close on either side. Price is 7711.75, under the 7720.

NQ: NQ is over 29500, the same-day lid, after spending all of Wednesday underneath it. The heaviest mark in this book is 29600, the same number the structure read lands on, and price has already been turned away there once. Price is 29528.75, over the lid and under the 29600.

CL: Crude took 82.25 back overnight, the pivot in this book, and has kept going. 83.00 is the lid for the day and 81.00 the floor, and price is working the top half of that cage. Price is 82.67, under the 83.00.

GC: Gold’s structural marks are stranded a long way under the market, the cap at 4510 and the magnet at 4340, so only the same-day levels are doing any work today. 4675 is the pivot and gold sits well under it, with 4650 the heaviest mark in the book now overhead. Price is 4639.70, under the 4650.

Cheers. and remember..

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES put in a rotation day yesterday, two-sided the whole session, and closed 7691 in the top third with the POC at 7686.75 and value 7679.25 to 7691.50. The overnight respected all of it, built value 7680.75 to 7690.50, popped 7698.50 late, and gave the pop right back. It trades 7685, pressing 7686.75 yesterday’s POC, and the 7680 shelf under it is the whole reason I lean long: yesterday’s value low, last week’s value low, and the overnight’s all printed on top of each other there, three separate auctions refusing to go lower. My problem with the long is the pop that didn’t stick; the night tried 7698.50 and nobody followed. Over 7686.75 the ladder runs 7690.50, 7691.50, 7698.50, 7701.25; under the shelf there’s nothing that matters until 7670, then 7663.25 yesterday’s low.

NQ is the weak one and it isn’t hiding it. Yesterday ran 29414.75 in the first hour, sold the rest of the day into a 29270 close, and left the POC stranded at 29225 with value 29207.25 to 29287.25. The overnight slid to 29095.50, bought all of it back, gave it up, and took it back again; it keeps crossing 29225 and going nowhere, and chop on a stranded POC is a market with no opinion yet. It trades 29222.75, fighting right at the stranded POC after taking the 29207.25 value low back. Hold above it and the night’s ceiling at 29277.75 with 29287.25 behind it is the job; lose 29181 the night’s floor and 29095.50 is back in play.

CL finally cracked: one try at 83.30 early, then a trend day straight down to an 81.12 close with value migrating the whole way, POC 82.34, value 82.05 to 82.59. The night piled on and built entirely new value 79.81 to 80.50, prices Tuesday never traded, with the low at 79.62. Then it took the whole cage back; it trades 81.77 now, up through 81.28 the night’s high and back inside Tuesday’s range. That’s a real repair, but the volume still lives down at 80.30 where the night did its business, so this is price without acceptance until value follows it up. Over 82.05 the 82.34 print is the gate, the one the week and yesterday both built on, then 82.59 and 83.30; back under 81.10 and the cage at 80.50 to 79.81 is waiting, with 79.62 the low that counts twice, night and week.

GC closed 4723.40 on the highs, the three-month top, with the POC at 4695.90 and value 4677.20 to 4715. The overnight wanted no part of it: 4730.90 first, then a straight sell to 4668.80 and new value built 4673.60 to 4706.80 on a 4684 print. The sellers won the night, they moved the whole value area down off a three-month-high close, but the morning already ran the breakdown once: through 4668.80 down to 4653, just over the week’s low, where it found nobody and came all the way back. It trades 4677.6, climbing back at 4677.20 yesterday’s VAL after the night’s 4673.60 floor held. Take 4684 back and 4706.80, 4715, 4723.40 return; lose 4673.60 again and it’s 4668.80, then 4651.80 the week’s low, the one the morning couldn’t reach.

The Calendar

Wednesday, August 26 (all times CT):

- 7:30 Core PCE for July with the headline PCE index, personal income and spending, durable goods for July, and the second estimate on Q2 GDP

- 9:30 EIA crude inventories

- 10:30 17-week bill auction

- After the close NVDA reports

The Plan

ES:

The trade is the 7680 shelf and the plan doesn’t get more complicated than that. Buy-side, the tell is 7686.75, yesterday’s POC, trading and holding above it. That turns the ladder up: 7690.50 and 7691.50, then 7698.50, with 7701.25 yesterday’s high the gate to 7714 and air to 7744, last week’s VAH, over that. If the shelf goes, 7670 is the catch, the week’s POC with the overnight low at 7670.75 sitting right on it. Under 7663.25 yesterday’s low it’s air to 7657.75 and 7655, the two week lows, then 7611 where July’s value begins.

NQ:

The wall is 29277.75 the night’s ceiling, 29287.25 yesterday’s VAH, and 29292.20 last week’s VAL, all stacked. NQ has to take the whole stack to change anything; through it, 29310 and 29414.75 yesterday’s high are the only stops before 29480.50 the week’s high and 29550, August’s POC. It hasn’t earned that yet. Downside, 29181 the night’s floor is first, and losing it puts 29095.50 right back in play. Under that, 29087.50 the week’s VAL, then air to 28946.80 the week’s low, with 28448.20 July’s VAL the last mark that matters.

CL:

Crude’s already doing the work: it took 81.10 and 81.28 back this morning and trades 81.77, inside Tuesday’s range again. The gate is 82.34, the print the week and yesterday both built on, with 82.05 yesterday’s VAL the doorstep. Through the gate, 82.59 the value ceiling and 83.30 the high are next, with 84.36 last week’s VAL above them. The catch is acceptance; the night’s volume lives at 80.30, and until value rebuilds up here the move is only price. Back under 81.10 the cage waits, 80.50 to 79.81, then 79.62, the low the night and the week share; below that, nothing until 76.22 July’s VAL and 73.10 the August low.

GC:

The whole fight is 4673.60 to 4684: the night’s floor, yesterday’s VAL at 4677.20, the week’s VAL at 4681.40, and the night’s print stacked in one zone. Accept above 4684 and the repair runs 4706.80, then 4715 yesterday’s ceiling, with 4723.40 and 4725.70 the prices that made the top and 4755 the week’s high behind them. The counter-argument is the night itself; sellers moved value down off a three-month-high close, and that’s not what strength looks like. Lose 4673.60 and 4668.80 goes with it, then the 4659.60 shelf where August’s VAH and yesterday’s low sit together. Under 4651.80 the week’s low, it’s air to 4614.30 last week’s VAH and 4545 its POC, where the run’s real volume lives.

The White Van Stuff

The equity books are still positive and call-dominated while the two commodity books carry the whole story: crude’s cage rebuilt below price after the war premium came out of it, and gold’s band is wide enough to hold everything the night just did.

ES: ES is working 7680, the same-day pivot, with the 7685 magnet a few ticks over it. The cap is 7750 and the band runs 7631.45 to 7750.05. Price sits right on the magnet at 7685.

NQ: The pivot and the magnet share 29225 and NQ is fighting right at it. Same-day floor 29050, lid 29400. Tight cage for an earnings-print day, and the tape sits 29222.75.

CL: Every same-day mark in this book is still overhead: pivot and magnet at 82.50, lid at 84. The band floor is 79.03 and the night found 79.62. Crude trades 81.77, over the 80.50 with the 82 shelf the first thing in its way.

GC: The same-day floor and pivot share 4625, a long way under where the night landed. Lid 4975, band top 4790.99. Gold sits 4677.6, climbing off the bottom of the fight zone.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES leaked lower again Monday, 7686.50 down to 7655, and closed 7669.50 in the bottom of its own value. The night fixed that: sold 7660.25 early, then built value the other way, 7667.50 to 7698.50 on a 7674.50 print, tagging 7714 along the way. It trades 7704.25 now, out the top of the night’s value and over this week’s 7703.25 high, with the session VWAP at 7687 left far underneath. Only the 7714 overnight top stands upstairs before 7744 where last week’s value begins. Below 7687 the staircase runs back through 7674.50 and 7670 to 7667.50, with Monday’s 7655 low underneath.

Read more

The Tape

ES did nothing Friday, 7676.50 to 7714, and closed 7691.75 inside its own value. The night gave it one look at 7703.50, sold the whole thing to 7664.25, then thought better of it and crawled back inside value before the open. The night’s business got done

Read more

The Week That Was

The long end of the bond market ran the whole show. The thirty-year printed its highest yield since 2007 on Tuesday, the national debt crossed forty trillion, and the indexes bled for four straight sessions while the Treasury stepped in to double its long-term buybacks. By Friday yields had stopped climbing and everything on the board bounced at once. Crude put in its second straight up week as Washington moved from airstrikes to open economic warfare on Iran, with the actual sanctions package due Monday. Gold got flushed into the 4390s midweek, reversed the whole thing in a day, and finished at its highest price in three months on the weaker dollar and the debt math.

ES opened the week at 7803 and closed Friday at 7691.75, with all the damage done Tuesday through Thursday. The two-week shelf both prior weeks built near 7770 gave way in one session and price never came back to it. The week put its volume at 7725.50 and closed below it, resting on its own value floor at 7682.75.

NQ opened at 30219.25, tagged 30286.75 Monday, and closed Friday at 29396.25 after a five-session slide that bottomed at 29202.50 Thursday. The week did its business at 29600 and price finished under it, standing on a floor where the week’s 29311.50, July’s 29300 POC, and August’s 29295.25 all landed together.

CL rolled to the new front contract midweek, so every crude number in this brief is post-roll, read them fresh. On the new contract it opened the week at 82.16, ran to 87.46, and closed at 86.65, dead on its own week POC at 86.60. Second straight up week, and unlike the last one it closed on top of the pile instead of under it.

GC opened the week at 4450.90, got flushed to 4392.30 Tuesday, and closed Friday at 4674.70 after printing 4690.30 on the high. The week’s volume sits way back at 4549 and price finished nowhere near it. It ended the week above every structure on the chart except its own Friday high.

Cross-asset read: Last week the indexes closed on top of their volume while crude and gold closed under theirs. This week the split flipped sides: ES and NQ finished below the value they built, the commodities finished sitting on or above it. Four charts swapped ends of the same trade in five sessions.

Positioning (August 18 data): The trader crowd on the S&P flipped net long at the top two weeks ago after leaning against the rally all summer, and by Tuesday it had dumped the longs and gone back to flat-short. The Nasdaq crowd finally collected on its short lean and covered most of it into the slide. Gold’s long crowd sits on about 220,000 contracts and got the week it was built for, while the crude crowd is carrying less than thirty thousand into the second up week in a row.

Vol: VIX closed at 15.13, up on the week even after Friday’s bounce knocked it back. Protection is still cheap for a week with this much on the schedule.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Wednesday, both ends of it. The inflation print at 7:30 reprices September in the morning and Nvidia reprices the growth trade after the close. If those two disagree, Thursday gets violent.

2. The 29300 shelf on NQ. The week’s value floor, July’s POC, and August’s value floor all stacked together, and Friday’s bounce started there. Everything above it is repair. Everything below it is a broken month.

3. The auctions. Two-year Tuesday, five-year Wednesday, seven-year Thursday, the first coupon slate since the long bond cracked and the Treasury started buying back its own paper. Weak takedowns restart the whole problem.

4. The Friday keynote. The new chair has spent his first summer saying as little as possible, and September is priced at about one in three. A first Jackson Hole speech is the one stage where even saying nothing moves markets.

5. Crude with the package pending. The sanctions detail lands Monday and crude opens tonight parked at 86.65, right on the shelf that decides its week. Tanker traffic through the lane is still running at a fifth of normal.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES goes into the week standing on 7682.75, its own value floor, with Friday’s 7684.50 floor printed right on top of it. That is the trigger. Hold it and the repair work reads 7700 Friday’s value ceiling, 7713.75 where August bottoms its value, then 7725.50 the week POC, the line my whole lean hangs on. Over 7725.50 the stack thickens: 7743.50 last week’s floor sitting against 7745.75 the week’s ceiling, 7770 August POC, 7805.25 last week’s value top, and 7838.50 the August high to finish it. Lose 7682.75 and the first stop is 7658.75 the week low, and under that the chart goes hollow: 7627.25 July’s high, 7615 July’s value ceiling, and then nothing with real volume until 7546 July POC.

NQ:

NQ closed at 29396.25 with a three-timeframe floor directly underneath: 29311.50 the week’s value floor, 29300 July POC, 29295.25 August’s value floor, one shelf wearing three names. That shelf is the trigger. Hold it and the repair runs 29534.25 last week’s floor, 29600 the week POC, then 29701 the week’s value ceiling into 29760, where August and last week put their POCs on the same tick. Through 29760 the air opens to 29932 August’s value ceiling, 30286.75 the week high, then July’s 30311 ceiling and 30356.50 high, the pair still capping everything. Lose the shelf and 29202.50 the week low is the only thing left, and below that the chart is empty to 28457.75 July’s value floor and 28313.25 the August low.

CL:

Crude closed at 86.65 sitting on 86.60, where the week and August share a POC, and that shelf is the trigger. Above it the room is thin: 87.18 Friday’s value ceiling, 87.39 the week’s, then 87.46 where the week topped with August’s ceiling printed on the same price, and 88.07 the July high with nothing but open air past it. Below 86.60 the first catch is 86.13 Friday’s low, then 85.08 July’s value ceiling and 84.37 the week’s floor. Lose 84.37 and it falls into 82.31 July POC with last week’s 82.33 high right on it, the gate for the whole rally. Under the gate it reads 81.35 the week low and 80.82 August’s value floor, with nothing else until 76.11 July’s floor.

GC:

Gold is in open air. It closed Friday at 4674.70 with exactly two prints above it on the whole chart, 4676.30 Friday’s value ceiling and 4690.30 the week high, and past those there is nothing but whatever it builds next. The line underneath is 4640.90, where August tops its value, with Friday’s 4640 volume printed on it, and that is the trigger. Hold it and the discovery continues. Lose it and the steps down read 4629.80 Friday’s floor, 4566 the week’s value ceiling, 4549 the week POC, then 4502.40, the top of the old run and the gate for the whole move. Under the gate the unwind runs 4450 where last week and August share a POC, 4405.50 the week’s floor on last week’s 4403.70, and 4392.30 the week low, with 4253.20 the July high the last thing on the board.

The White Van Stuff

The books that spent two weeks pinned at the top of their yearly range let go. The S&P book unwound to the bottom half of its year and the tech book is near the floor of its own, while the weight moved to the other side of the board: gold’s book is up near the top of its year and energy sits heavy. Nothing on the equity side is pinned going into the report.

ES: The book followed price down: the cap that sat at 7900 all month is 7800 now, the floor is 7600, and the magnet at 7725 lands square on the week POC, options and structure agreeing on one line. Price closed at 7691.75, under the magnet, with the band running 7624.60 to 7750.90.

NQ: The tech book hollowed out on the way down: the cap fell to 30000 with the expected top printed on it at 29985.24, the magnet sits overhead at 29500, and below 28950 there is one line at 28500 before the 28000 floor. Price closed at 29396.25, below the magnet.

CL: Crude’s book is the only one leaning bullish outright: the heaviest interest stacks 86.50 through 88 right on top of spot, the cap is 90, and the band runs 84.23 to 89.05. The magnet at 80.75 is a leftover from the price crude quit trading two weeks ago. It closed at 86.65, inside the heavy stack.

GC: Gold’s book chased harder than anything on the board: the cap moved from 4510 to 4750 in one week and the interest ladder rebuilt itself 4575 through 4725 around spot. The 4340 magnet and the 3900 floor have not caught up and mean nothing this week. Price closed at 4674.70, pressed against the 4675 to 4700 cluster.

Stops? Where we’re going, we don’t need stops.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

ES opened Thursday at 7698, ran to 7720, and sold the rest of the day to close 7665.50, under its own value low at 7678.75 with all of its volume stranded up at the 7703.75 POC. The night opened 7669, dipped to 7661.25, and walked it back to 7704.75. It trades 7698, back inside Thursday’s value, but the overnight built its own volume down at 7668.25 and never brought it up here. Bull case is 7694.50 overnight VAH holds as a floor and 7713.50 August VAL comes back, with 7720 right behind it. Bear case is 7686 week VAL cracks and the ladder runs 7678.75 Thursday VAL, 7668.25 overnight POC, then 7657.75 the low of the week.

NQ closed Thursday at 29307 for a fifth straight red session, in the bottom half of its own value with the day’s business done at 29300. The night opened 29327, put the low in at 29274, and ran the whole thing to 29539.25, clear of Thursday’s 29470.25 high. The part that matters is where the volume went, because the overnight POC printed at 29525 on the way up instead of staying down at the lows, and it trades 29498.25 just under it. Bull case is 29358 overnight VAL holds and the stack at 29536 to 29550 goes, where overnight VAH, last week’s value low and August POC all print together. Bear case is 29358 fails and it runs 29300 Thursday POC, 29289 Thursday VAL, then 29274 where the night bottomed.

CL did nothing Thursday, worked 85.68 to 87.01 and closed 86.60 sitting right on its own POC. The night pushed it to 87.52, a tick under the 87.69 that has capped the whole week, and handed it straight back. It trades 86.72, inside Thursday’s value and inside the overnight’s, with session VWAP at 86.61 underneath it. Bull case is 86.92 overnight VAH goes and 87.01 then 87.52 come back into play, with 87.69 capping it. Bear case is 86.31 Thursday VAL fails and it works 86.07 overnight VAL, 85.79 the low of the night, then 85.08 July VAH.

GC opened Thursday at 4522.20, printed its low in the first hour, and never went back there, closing 4584.90 near the high with value dragged up to 4580. The night kept going, 4565.30 up to 4661.90, which is the most anybody has paid for gold this quarter. It trades 4640.10, above every level Thursday built, inside a fresh value area that runs 4603.60 to 4661.60. Bull case is 4620 overnight POC holds and 4661.90 goes, and above that there is nothing left on the chart. Bear case is 4603.60 loses and it works back to 4597.20 Thursday’s high, 4580 the POC, then 4565.30 the overnight low.

The Calendar

8:45 AM CT. S&P Global flash manufacturing, services and composite PMIs

12:00 PM CT. Baker Hughes rig count

The PMIs land fifteen minutes after the bell, and they are the only thing on this list that gets to reprice the open.

The Plan

ES:

ES has to hold 7694.50, where overnight value ends, for this reclaim to be worth anything. Above it the work is 7704.75 the overnight high, then 7713.50 August VAL, then 7719.50 Thursday VAH with 7720 the high printing on top of it. Take those and 7725.50 week POC is next, with 7743.50 last week’s value low behind it. Below 7694.50 the first thing to lose is 7686 week VAL, then 7678.75 Thursday VAL, then 7668.25 where the night did all of its business, with 7665.50 the close and 7662.25 overnight VAL stacked under it. Lose 7657.75 the week low and there is nothing worth naming until 7611 July VAH and 7546 July POC.

NQ:

NQ is the one that actually did something overnight and 29358 is the line it did it from. Above 29358 the whole thing gets decided in one stack, 29525 overnight POC then 29536 overnight VAH, 29539.25 the overnight high, 29540 last week’s value low and 29550 August POC all printing on top of each other. Clear that pile and 29600 is next with the week POC and July POC on the same number, then 29699.20 week VAH. Below 29358 Thursday’s entire range is underneath, 29300 the POC then 29292.80 August VAL and 29289 Thursday VAL, with 29278.50 week VAL and 29274 the overnight low stacked beneath them. Lose 29202.50 where Thursday’s low and the week low print together and the map is empty until 28448.20 July VAL and 28258.20 the August low.

CL:

Crude is back inside everything it built and 86.92, the top of overnight value, is the trigger. Above 86.92 the first work is 87.01 Thursday’s high, then 87.52 the overnight high, then 87.66 August VAH with 87.69 where the week and the month both topped right on it. Through 87.69 and 88.07 July’s high is the last thing standing before open air. Below 86.92 it works back through 86.60 Thursday POC and 86.53 week VAH, then 86.31 Thursday VAL and 86.07 overnight VAL, with 85.79 the overnight low under those. Lose 85.79 and the ladder is 85.08 July VAH, then 84.38 where week POC and August POC print together, then 83.56 week VAL with 82.02 last week’s VAH beneath it.

GC:

Gold is trading above everything and 4603.60, the low of today’s value, is the only number underneath it that means anything today. Above where it sits, 4646.40 the session high is first, then 4661.60 today’s value high with 4661.70 the week and August high and 4661.90 the overnight high all on the same print. Through 4661.90 there is no structure left, which makes anything up there a discovery move and not a level trade. Below 4603.60 the catch is 4600.70 August VAH, then 4597.20 Thursday’s high, then 4584.90 the close and 4580 the POC, with 4565.30 where the night bottomed under them. Lose 4565.30 and it runs 4545 week POC and 4542.60 Thursday VAL, then 4473.10 last week’s VAH and 4450 where last week’s POC and the August POC print on the same number.

The White Van Stuff

Everything the crowd owns is in commodities right now and almost nothing is left in paper. Oil positioning sits at the very top of its own year with energy right behind it, gold and silver up near theirs, while the S&P, the Nasdaq, small caps and bonds are all parked in the bottom fifth of where they have been for twelve months. That is why the metal keeps running and the index bounces keep stalling at the first shelf they reach.

ES

ES is sitting exactly on the magnet at 7700, which is also today’s pivot, so the whole thing is balanced on one number. The lid is close overhead, 7720 today’s cap then 7725 nearest above, and the band tops out at 7731.90. It trades 7698, a tick under the pivot.

NQ

NQ ran all night and stopped dead on today’s cap at 29500. The magnet at 29370 and today’s pivot at 29240 are both underneath it now, which is the other side of where they sat yesterday morning. It trades 29498.25, right on the lid, with the band running up to 29706.64.

CL

Crude cleared today’s cap at 85 and has stayed above it, so that number works as a floor now instead of a lid. Today’s put floor at 86.50 is right under where it trades and the heaviest interest on the board is up at 88, with 88.70 the band’s high just past it. It trades 86.72, between the 86.50 floor and 87.

GC

Gold is above its structural cap at 4510 and it is not anywhere close to it anymore. It spent the night pushing into the top of the expected band at 4643.18, and the heaviest interest below is 4600 before it thins out down to 4550. It trades 4640.10, at the top of the band with 4650 the first thing above it.

Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

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Trading the open on NT Live with the boys this am. Tune in.

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The Tape

ES sold Monday from 7803 down to 7766 and closed 7768.75, underneath its own value low at 7776. The night opened right on that close, poked 7770.75, then spent the rest of the session building value between 7720.50 and 7741.50 with the volume settling at 7730. It trades 7732.50 now, under last week’s low at 7738 and under August value at 7742.25. Bulls need 7741.50 back to argue anything, and above that 7766 and Monday’s 7776 value low come into play. Bears have 7716.50 as the trigger, and under it there is nothing structural until 7611 July VAH and 7546 July POC.

NQ opened Monday at 30219.25, never got going, and closed 30091 right on its value low at 30079. The night gave it one push to 30121.25 and then took it apart, running to 29680.75 and leaving overnight value stretched from 29732.50 up to 30032.25. It trades 29703.25, outside that value to the downside and under August POC at 29750. The bull case starts with 29732.50 back overhead, then 29880 prev week POC and 29982 where the night did most of its business. The bear case is 29680.75 giving way into 29600 July POC, 29540 prev week VAL, and 29466 August VAL.

CL ran Monday from 82.09 to 84.88 and closed 84.65 near the top, a trend day with value dragged up to 82.69 through 84.86. The night never gave any of it back, opening 84.98, holding 84.61 as the floor, and printing 85.68 before settling into value between 84.90 and 85.30. It trades 85.33, above the 84.05 August VAH, with 84.50 July POC the first real support underneath. Bulls want 85.68 taken out with 86.87 the August high above it. Bears need 84.61 to fail, and under that 84.05 August VAH and 83.74 week VAH are the first two stops.

GC rallied Monday off 4433.40 to 4486.50 and closed 4475.70, building value from 4461.40 to 4485.10. The night took it up to 4493 and then walked it all the way back to 4441.40, parking value between 4442.50 and 4460.80. It trades 4447, under Monday’s value low and just under 4450, the price that is simultaneously the week POC, last week’s POC, and the August POC. Bulls need 4460.80 and 4461.40 reclaimed before 4471.70 week VAH and 4493 matter again. Bears want 4441.40 gone, which opens 4439.60 week VAL, 4422.30 week low, and 4403.60 prev week VAL.

The Calendar

7:15 AM CT. ADP weekly employment change

7:30 AM CT. Housing Starts, Building Permits, Import and Export Prices, NY Fed Services Activity

8:15 AM CT. Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Production

9:00 AM CT. Pending Home Sales

3:30 PM CT. API crude stock change

The Plan

ES:

7741.50 is the line, the top of overnight value with August’s value low stacked on it at 7742.25. Above 7741.50 the first work is 7743.50 prev week VAL, then 7766 where Monday bottomed and the night opened, then 7770.75 the overnight high. Reclaim 7770.75 and Monday’s 7776 value low and 7794.25 POC come back on the board. Below 7741.50 it stays heavy and 7730 overnight POC is the first thing to lose, then 7720.50 overnight VAL. The whole read breaks at 7716.50, the overnight low and the low of the week, and under it there is no structure worth naming until 7611 July VAH and 7546 July POC.

NQ:

29732.50 is the line and NQ already lost it overnight. Above 29732.50 the reclaim starts with 29750 August POC, then 29880 prev week POC, then 29982 where the overnight volume actually sat. Take 29982 and 30032.25 overnight VAH and 30079 Monday’s value low come back. Below where it trades, the only thing holding the tape up is 29680.50, the low of the week set overnight. Lose 29680.50 and there is air underneath into 29600 July POC, then 29540 prev week VAL and 29466 August VAL.

CL:

85.30 is the line, the top of the value the night built. Above 85.30 crude works the 85.40 opening high and then 85.68, the overnight high and the only thing standing between here and the August high at 86.87. Clear 85.68 and there is nothing structural until 86.87, and behind that 88.46 July VAH. Below 85.30 the first stop is 85.00 overnight POC, then 84.90 overnight VAL. The trigger that ends the run is 84.61, the overnight low and the price Monday’s rally launched from, and under it sits 84.50 July POC, 84.05 August VAH, 83.74 week VAH and 83.48 prev week VAH.

GC:

4450 is the whole thing on gold, the week POC, last week’s POC, and the August POC all printing at the same price, and it trades just underneath. Above 4450 the reclaim runs 4460.80 overnight VAH and 4461.40 Monday’s value low together, then 4471.70 week VAH and 4473.10 prev week VAH stacked, then 4474 Monday POC. Get through those and 4485.10 and the 4493 overnight high are live again. Below 4450 the first support is 4442.50 overnight VAL and 4441.40 the overnight low. Lose 4441.40 and it runs 4439.60 week VAL, 4422.30 week low, and 4403.60 prev week VAL, under which the map is empty down to 4314.90 August VAL and 4276.20 July high.

The White Van Stuff

The crowd is packed into tech and semis at the top of their one-year range, and packed into crude almost as hard. Bonds are the mirror image, sitting at the very bottom of that same range with the position flipped negative. Gold is the only one of the group sitting in the middle of its own.

ES

ES is trading underneath today’s put floor at 7750 before the bell, which flips it from support to the first thing in the way. The magnet at 7755 and today’s pivot at 7780 are both overhead now. It sits 7732.50, still inside the expected band.

NQ

NQ opened the morning under today’s expected low at 29734.01, the loudest thing on its options map. Everything else is overhead, including today’s put floor at 30000 and the magnet at 29990. The only level underneath is the 29500 put floor.

CL

Crude cleared today’s cap at 85 overnight and trades above it, the one name on this list where the crowd is on the wrong side. Today’s expected high is 86.68 and the structural cap does not show up until 90. Underneath, today’s pivot and today’s put floor stack together at 82.

GC

Gold’s nearest level above is 4450 and it trades right underneath it. Today’s expected high is 4535 and today’s expected low is 4411.20, so there is room on both sides before anything gets decided. The magnet sits down at 4340.

I want to touch grass but my grass is dead on the inside and outside like me. Heres to not going back to the 9-5.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

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The Week That Was

Two inflation prints landed Tuesday and Wednesday and neither one was hot, which took a September hike from a coin flip down to about one in three, and the S&P used it to clear 7,800 for the first time. Then Friday the retail number came in at down six tenths against a forecast for a small gain, and the rally stopped right there. Crude ran about five percent on renewed pressure over the Strait of Hormuz, so the one chart nobody wanted to own two weeks ago turned into the best trade on the board. Gold went to 4502.40 Wednesday, found out what air smells like, and gave most of it back. The Russell printed a fresh record Friday while the Nasdaq spent the day going nowhere.

ES opened the week at 7773 and closed Friday at 7805.50, and in between it printed 7838.50, the highest price the contract has traded. Value settled at 7773.75, sitting almost exactly on last week’s 7765.75, so two weeks running the market did its business in the same handle. Friday closed dead on 7805.25, the ceiling the week built.

NQ opened at 29805.50 and closed Friday at 30144.25, and it spent the week doing the one thing last week’s plan asked for: it went back and cleaned up the 30074 print nobody had touched. The high is 30280.50 and it went in Friday, which leaves July’s 30311 ceiling and 30356.50 high as the only two things overhead. Value built at 29760, right on top of last week’s 29750, and price closed nowhere near it.

CL opened at 79.73 and closed at 82.40 after tagging 83.62, the best week crude has had since the spring. The odd part is where the volume went. The week POC printed 83.19, above where price finished, and August’s POC printed there too, so the market built its value at the top of the range and then closed under it.

GC opened at 4387.70, ran to 4502.40 midweek, and closed at 4431.30, which is a gain on the week and does not feel like one. Value came in at 4450, above the close, the same shape crude drew. Friday held a tight range from 4427.20 to 4454.80 and finished at 4431.30, right underneath its own value floor at 4432.30.

Positioning (August 11 data): The trader crowd on the S&P finally quit, adding almost 17,000 longs and covering better than 12,000 shorts to go net long after weeks of leaning against the rally. The Nasdaq crowd did the opposite and put on another 9,200 shorts. Gold’s long crowd added 26,000 contracts at the highs while the crude crowd was cutting longs into the best week it has had all summer.

Vol: VIX closed at 14.25, lower again. Protection is the cheapest it has been all month going into a week whose only scheduled event is a set of minutes.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Wednesday at 1:00. Two cool prints already knocked September down to about one in three. The minutes tell you how close the argument actually got, and that is the whole week in one release.

2. NQ 30311 and 30356.50. July’s value ceiling with July’s high stacked right behind it. NQ cleaned up the 30074 poor high last week, and this pair is the only structure left between price and open air.

3. ES 7773.75 on 7765.75. Two weeks of volume in one handle. Holds and the record is a base. Loses and the whole thing was a blowoff that took two weeks to admit it.

4. Crude’s own 83.19. The week put its volume above where it closed. Reclaim it and the move is accepted. Fail that number and the whole rally reads as a retrace inside a broken market.

5. The retail slate. Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s and Walmart all report onto a consumer number that just fell the most in over a year. Four chances for somebody to say out loud what Friday’s data already said.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES has built two straight weeks of volume on the same handle, 7773.75 this week sitting right on top of 7765.75 last week, and that stack is the whole plan. Over that stack the map runs 7797 Friday’s value floor, 7805.25 where the week topped its value, with Friday’s 7805.50 close right on it, then 7813 where last week capped its value and 7820.25 last week’s high. Take out 7830.75 Friday’s high and 7838.50 is the record, with nothing overhead but whatever gets built up there. Below 7773.75 the first catch is 7743.50, the floor of the week’s build. Lose 7724.25, where last week’s value bottomed, with August’s 7724.75 sitting right on it, and the two-week shelf is gone. Under that there is a real gap before 7627.25 July’s high and 7615 July’s value ceiling, with 7546 July POC where the month put its actual volume.

NQ:

NQ did what last week’s plan asked and went back for the 30074 print it left hanging, then kept going to 30280.50 Friday. The line now is 30105.25, where the week topped its value, and Friday closed above it. Hold there and the only structure left is 30311 July’s value ceiling with 30356.50 July’s high behind it, and above that pair there is nothing on the chart at all. Below 30105.25 the first catch is 30067.25, where August tops its value. Lose that and the drop runs to 29760 week POC and 29750 last week’s POC, the same handle two weeks running and the gate for this entire read. Under 29750 it steps 29534.25, the week’s own floor, then 29467 where last week’s value bottomed, with August’s 29471.75 stacked on it, then air down to 29300 July POC and 28457.75 July’s value floor.

CL:

Crude had its best week of the summer and still closed under its own volume. 83.19 is the week POC and August’s POC on the same price, and Friday finished at 82.40, underneath it. Reclaim 83.19 and the move gets accepted, with 83.34 the week’s ceiling, 83.45 August’s, and 83.62 the week high right above it. Clear that shelf and 84.50 July’s POC is the real target, then 88.48 July’s value ceiling and 93.51 the July high a long way behind it. Fail at 83.19 and the first catch is 81.33, the floor the week drew, then 79.17 the week low and 78.12 where last week capped out. Lose 77.04, where August’s value bottoms on top of July’s 77.03, and the whole rally was a retrace, with 75.75 last week’s POC and 74.44 last week’s low underneath.

GC:

Gold made the high of the run at 4502.40 and spent the back half of the week handing it back, and it closed under its own volume too. 4450 is the week POC and the line that decides whether the run is still a run. Over 4450, the number 4460.80 caps what the week built, then 4502.40 where the week topped, with August’s 4502.70 ceiling right there with it, and past it there is no structure at all. Below 4450 the first step is 4435, Friday’s volume, then 4432.30 its value floor, which price closed just underneath. Lose 4403.70, the floor the week set, and 4375 the week low is the gate. Under 4375 it runs 4363.60, last week’s ceiling, then air down to 4304.70 where August bottoms its value and 4301 where last week put its POC, with 4253.20 July’s high the last thing on the board.

The White Van Stuff

The equity books are back at the top of their one-year range, the S&P near the ninetieth percentile and the tracking book on tech at ninety-seven, which is the setup that pins price until something big enough shows up to unpin it. The long end carries the opposite, sitting at the very bottom of its own year. Energy is stacked as heavy as equities while the metals books are dead center, so gold is still running on buying rather than positioning.

ES: The structural cap on ES is 7800 and price closed above it Friday, so the book got run over on the way to the record. Overhead the interest stacks 7825, 7850 and 7875 into the 7900 line. Underneath, the magnet at 7745 sits right on the bottom of the expected band.

NQ: The whole tech book is stacked overhead. Every heavy line but two sits above Friday’s close, running 30250, 30400 and 30500 into a shelf from 30600 up to 30800, with the cap parked at 31000. Below price there is 30100, 30000, the magnet at 29890, and then nothing until 28000.

CL: Crude closed inside the densest part of its own book, with 82, 82.50 and 83 all sitting within reach of the settle. The ladder above runs 83.50, 84, 85 and 86 with no gap anywhere in the stack, and the cap is still 90. The magnet is 80.50.

GC: Gold’s cap is 4510 and the week high stopped underneath it, and the book has not moved the number since. Overhead the lines run 4450, 4480, 4525 and 4550. The magnet is way down at 4340, below everything the week traded, and the 3900 floor is a leftover from a different price.

If you use 45-minute candles, feel free to yell at me in the chat this week. I am man; I’m 40.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

ES printed the highest price it has ever traded yesterday and then spent the entire night between 7820 and 7829.50, which is a strange way to celebrate. Gold sank to 4365.60 in the dark and bought the whole thing back, crude tagged 83.00 and fell out of the bottom of its own overnight value, and the indexes just sat there watching. I lean long ES while 7823.25 holds and I want NQ to keep 30215 under it.

The Tape

ES opened 7793.25 Thursday, ran 7838.50 for the highest print this contract has ever made, and closed 7823.25 right on its 7823 POC with value from 7807 to 7829.25. The overnight opened 7825, kept a 7820 low and a 7829.50 high, and built value 7823.25 to 7827.75 on a 7824.50 print. It trades 7827.75, at the ceiling of that overnight value and under Thursday’s 7829.25 ceiling. Hold 7823.25 and 7829.25 with 7829.50 stacked on it is the first job, then 7838.50 and clean air. Lose 7823.25 and 7820 the low of the night catches, then 7807 where Thursday’s value began with 7794 the week’s ceiling under it.

NQ opened 29910.25 Thursday, ran 30272.75 for the highest trade of the month, and closed 30194.50 under a 30215 POC it could not hold, value 30159.50 to 30259.25. The overnight opened 30210.75, took 30124 out early, then climbed the rest of the night with value 30157.25 to 30238.75 on a 30200 print. It trades 30255, back above the POC it lost and into the high end of Thursday’s value. Hold 30215 and 30259.25 with 30262 the overnight high on top of it come first, then 30272.75 and nothing structural until 30463 July’s high. Lose 30215 and 30200 the overnight print catches, then 30157.25 and 30124 where the night bottomed, with 30076.20 July’s ceiling under them.

CL opened 81.22 Thursday, ran 82.74, and closed 81.27 on an 81.15 POC with value from 80.11 to 81.98. The overnight built the whole thing upstairs, 81.68 to 82.93 on an 82.79 print under a 83.00 high, then fell out of the bottom and printed 80.69. It trades 81.72, sitting at the base of a value area it spent all night building above. Hold 81.68 and 81.98 Thursday’s ceiling and 82.14 the week’s print are the work, then 82.74 and 83.00. Lose 81.68 and 81.46 August’s ceiling catches, then 81.24 the week’s floor and 81.15 the print, with 80.69 and 80.09 Thursday’s low beneath them.

GC opened 4443.30 Thursday, could not hold any of it, and closed 4406.20 under its own 4410.90 value low with the POC stranded at 4413.80. The overnight sold to 4365.60, a tick over the low the week already had in, and bought every bit of it back with value 4367.50 to 4405 on a 4385 print. It trades 4407, back at Thursday’s close and right where the night’s value topped out. Hold 4405 and 4410.90 with 4413.80 the stranded print above it is the first job, then 4419.50 and 4432.30 last week’s ceiling. Lose 4405 and 4385 the overnight POC catches, then 4382 where August and the week both did their business, with 4367.50 and 4365.50 under it.

The Calendar

Friday, August 14 (all times CT):

- 7:30 Retail sales for July, headline, ex autos and the control group, with business inventories alongside

- 8:00 Fed speaker

- 9:00 Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary, with the inflation expectations that ride with it

- 12:00 Weekly rig count

The 7:30 number sets the open and the 9:00 survey gets the back half of the morning.

The Plan

ES:

7823.25 is where the overnight value bottomed and it is stacked on 7823, the print Thursday closed on. Above it 7827.75 the overnight ceiling and 7829.25 where Thursday’s value topped out come first, with 7829.50 the top of the night sitting on that pair. Clear them and 7838.50 is the highest price ES has ever traded and there is nothing structural over it. Lose 7823.25 and 7820 where the night bottomed catches, then 7807 where Thursday’s value began, with 7794 the week’s ceiling and 7785.25 Thursday’s low under them. Those open 7775 the POC August built with 7773.75 the week’s stacked on it, and beneath that shelf 7765.75 last week’s POC and 7749 the week’s value low are what is left.

NQ:

30215 is the POC Thursday stranded at the close and NQ has taken it back trading 30255. Above it 30259.25 Thursday’s ceiling and 30262 where the night topped are the first work, then 30272.75, the highest trade this month has printed. Clear that and there is nothing between it and 30463, the high July made. Lose 30215 and 30200 the overnight print catches, then 30157.25 where the night’s value began with 30159.50 Thursday’s on the same shelf. Under that 30124 the overnight low opens 30076.20 July’s ceiling, then 30015.20 last week’s and 29965.20 August’s, with 29942.50 the week’s ceiling sitting over 29880, the POC this week built.

CL:

81.68 is the floor of the value crude spent all night building above and it trades 81.72, right on it. Hold it and 81.98 Thursday’s ceiling is the gate, then 82.14 the week’s print and 82.74 Thursday’s high with 82.79 the overnight POC on it. Clear those and 82.93 and 83.00 top the overnight range, with 83.92 the week’s ceiling and 84.50 July’s POC over them. Lose 81.68 and 81.46 August’s ceiling catches, then 81.24 the week’s floor and 81.15 the print Thursday left. Under that 80.69 the overnight low and 80.09 Thursday’s low are the gate, and there is nothing structural underneath until 78.73 last week’s ceiling and 76, the POC August and last week both built.

GC:

4405 is where the night’s value topped out and gold trades 4407, a hair over it. Hold it and 4410.90 the value low Thursday closed under is the gate, then 4413.80 the POC it stranded and 4419.50 the high the night made. Clear those and 4432.30 last week’s ceiling, 4441 Thursday’s and 4460.30 its high are what is left under 4463.20, where the week’s value ends. Lose 4405 and 4385 the overnight print catches, then 4382 where both August and this week did their business with 4380.30 the week’s floor on it. Under that 4367.50 and 4365.50, the low of the week, are the gate to 4301 last week’s POC and 4300 August’s floor.

The White Van Stuff

Both index books are as stacked as they have been all month and both cages tightened up overnight, which is most of the reason ES and NQ sat still while the other two did all the traveling. Crude is the one that got through its own lid and stayed over it. Gold’s book is the loosest of the four and its band was wide enough to hold everything the night just did.

ES: ES is over 7820, today’s pivot, with the heaviest interest in the whole book sitting at 7825 where price already is. The same-day lid is 7850 and the structural cap is 7900. Price is 7827.75, through the pivot and under the lid.

NQ: NQ’s same-day floor moved all the way up to 30230, a few ticks under price, and its lid overhead is 30300. That is a narrow cage and price is inside it. Price is 30255, over the floor and under the lid.

CL: Crude cleared 81, its same-day lid, and it has held over it all night. 83.00 is the heaviest mark in the book and the top of the day’s band sits right on it at 83.13, which is exactly where the overnight run stopped. Price is 81.72, over the lid.

GC: Gold’s overnight low at 4365.60 came in just over 4346.71, the bottom of the day’s band, so the entire dump and recovery happened inside the range the book gave it. 4350 is the heaviest mark under price and 4450 is the next one over it. Price is 4407, back over the 4400.

Hold on to your butts.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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ES opened 7791.75 Wednesday, printed 7794 and spent the session giving it back into a 7769.75 close, leaving a 7773.25 POC and value from 7766.50 to 7776.25. The overnight opened 7770, put its 7764.25 low in early and then built the entire night back up, value 7774.50 to 7787.50 on a 7784.25 print. It trades 7787.25, above everything Wednesday built. Hold 7774.50 and 7787.50 where the overnight value topped out and 7790.25 its high come first, then 7793.50 August’s ceiling and 7794 the high Wednesday made. Lose 7774.50 and 7773.25 Wednesday’s POC catches, then 7766.50 where its value began and 7764.25 where the night bottomed.

NQ opened 29991.25 Wednesday, printed 30001.50, and sold the rest of the day into a 29852.75 close that finished under its own 29859.25 value low with the POC stranded at 29907. The overnight opened 29826, took 29780.50 out underneath it, then spent the night climbing back with value 29831 to 29883.25 on a 29872 print. It trades 29872, back inside the bottom of Wednesday’s value and nowhere near the POC it abandoned. Hold 29831 and 29883.25 the top of the overnight value and 29907 Wednesday’s POC are the work, then 29923.25 its value high with 29924 the high of the night sitting on it. Lose 29831 and 29818.50 Wednesday’s low catches, then 29780.50 the overnight low, with 29750 this week’s POC and 29738.20 its value low under them.

CL opened 83.01 Wednesday, ran 83.47 and closed right back at 83.01 with its POC on the same number and value from 82.80 to 83.26. The overnight opened 82.70 under all of it, tried 83.30 once, then fell out of the bottom, printing 81.08 and building value 81.23 to 82.27 on an 81.55 POC. It trades 81.25, under the 81.46 floor of the week and the only one of the four sitting below a level with real meaning behind it. Hold 81.23 and 81.46 the week’s floor and 81.55 the print are the first job, then 82.27 the overnight ceiling and 82.80 where Wednesday’s value began. Lose 81.08 and there is nothing structural until 80.84 August’s ceiling, then 78.73 last week’s and 77.32 July’s floor.

GC opened 4467.80 Wednesday, ran 4502.40, and closed 4473.90 on a 4490 POC with value from 4471.60 to 4495.20. The overnight took the month out at 4509.10, then reversed the whole way to 4420.30 and rebuilt its value down low, 4425.10 to 4465.90 on a 4460.70 print. It trades 4456.20, under Wednesday’s value entirely and under the 4469.60 ceiling this week built. Hold 4425.10 and 4465.90 the top of the night’s value and 4469.60 the week’s are the work, then 4471.60 where Wednesday’s value starts and 4490 its POC. Lose 4425.10 and 4420.30 the overnight low is the gate to 4382 the POC August built, with 4381.80 its value low underneath.

The Calendar

Thursday, August 13 (all times CT):

- 7:15 Fed speaker

- 7:30 Producer price index for July, headline and core, with weekly jobless claims alongside it. Already out.

- 7:40 Another speaker

- 9:30 Weekly natural gas storage

- 12:00 Thirty year bond auction

The price number is already on the tape and the auction at noon is the only thing left that reaches the long end.

The Plan

ES:

7774.50 is where the overnight built the base of its value and that is the number ES has to keep. Above it 7787.50 the overnight ceiling and 7790.25 its high are the first work, then 7793.50 August’s ceiling and 7794 the high Wednesday printed. Clear that pair and 7798 the week’s high is all that is left under 7819.25 last week’s ceiling and 7820.25, the highest trade of the month. Lose 7774.50 and 7773.25 Wednesday’s POC catches first, then 7766.50 where its value began and 7764.75 the floor of the week sitting on 7764.25, the low of the night. Under that shelf 7756.50 Wednesday’s low is the gate to 7738 the week’s low and 7733 August’s floor, with 7719 last week’s value low opening the air down to 7611 July’s ceiling.

NQ:

29859.25 is the value low Wednesday closed underneath and NQ has taken it back trading 29872. Hold it and 29883.25 the overnight ceiling is the first mark, then 29907 the POC Wednesday stranded and 29923.25 its value high with 29924 the high of the night stacked on it. Clear that cluster and 29933.20 August’s ceiling comes before 30001.50, the print that failed yesterday, with 30015.20 last week’s ceiling above it. Lose 29859.25 and 29831 the overnight value low catches, then 29818.50 Wednesday’s low and 29780.50 where the night bottomed. Under those 29750 this week’s POC and 29738.20 its value low are the gate to 29600 July’s POC and 29520 where last week did its business.

CL:

81.46 is the floor of the week’s value and crude trades 81.25 underneath it, the one chart that gave up a level with meaning behind it overnight. Reclaim 81.46 and 81.55 the overnight print is the gate, then 82.27 its ceiling and 82.40 Wednesday’s low with 82.80 where Wednesday’s value began above them. Clear those and 83.00 the POC and 83.26 its ceiling sit under 83.47, the high Wednesday made, with 84.13 the week’s ceiling over that. Lose 81.23 and 81.08 the low of the night opens 80.84 August’s ceiling, and there is nothing structural under it until 78.73 last week’s. Below that 77.32 July’s floor and 77.07 the low of the week sit right on 76, the POC both August and last week built.

GC:

4469.60 is the ceiling this week built and gold sits 4456.20 under it after running the month’s high overnight and handing all of it back. Reclaim 4469.60 and 4471.60 where Wednesday’s value starts is the gate, then 4490 its POC and 4495.20 its ceiling with 4499.30 August’s above them. Clear those and 4502.40 Wednesday’s high and 4509.10, the highest trade this month has seen, are what is left. Lose 4460.70 the print and 4432.30 last week’s ceiling catches, then 4425.10 the overnight value low and 4420.30 its low. Under that pair 4382 the POC August built sits on 4381.80 its value low, with 4373.90 the low of the week and 4301 last week’s POC beneath them, and nothing structural under that until 4175.30 July’s ceiling.

The White Van Stuff

Positioning on the equity side is about as stacked as it gets, which is why both index cages sat still overnight while the two commodities did all the traveling. The crude book is heavy too and its floor for the day moved up to 82, the one level it has already lost. Gold’s book is the loosest of the four and it has the widest band to prove it.

ES: ES cleared 7770, the pivot for the day, and is working into 7800 where the cap and the same-day lid sit on the same number. 7826.97 is where the band ends above that. Price is 7787.25, through the 7780 and under the cap.

NQ: NQ is back over 29790, the pivot and the magnet on the same number, after losing it yesterday. 29900 is the next mark with 29975 the same-day lid and 30000 the cap behind it. Price is 29872, under the 29900.

CL: Crude lost 82, which was both the same-day floor and the magnet, and it kept going. 81.50 and 81 are the two marks under price now with 80 the next one and 79.98 the bottom of the band sitting right on it. Price is 81.25, between the 81.50 and the 81.

GC: Gold ran 4509.10 overnight, straight through the 4510 cap, and came all the way back inside its band. 4450 is the heaviest mark under price with 4405.14 the bottom of the day’s range beneath it. Price is 4456.20, back between the 4450 and the 4460.

You’re gonna need a bigger boat.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES opened 7791.75 Tuesday, printed 7792.50 and sold the rest of the day into a 7749.75 close, leaving its POC stranded at 7783 with value 7752 to 7786.75. Today’s session based 7748.50, built value 7750.75 to 7772.25 on a 7770 print and has run 7788 since the number. It trades 7784.25, clear of today’s value and back over 7783, the POC Tuesday abandoned. Hold 7783 and 7786.75 Tuesday’s ceiling and 7788 today’s high are the work, then 7792.25 the week’s ceiling and 7798 its high. Lose it and 7772.25 today’s value high catches, then 7770 the print and 7766.75 where the week’s value begins.

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The Week That Was

Monday opened the month with a rip and never really gave it back. Friday’s jobs report showed the economy lost 23,000 of them in July with unemployment at 4.1%, and the tape took that as good news, because a labor market going backwards makes it a lot harder to argue for another hike in September. Crude went the other direction all week after Washington called off the strikes on Iran and started talking about opening the shipping lane, and the war premium came out of the barrel in about two sessions. Gold ignored every bit of it and kept making highs anyway. VIX finished at 14.90.

ES opened the week at 7550 and closed Friday at 7778.25, spending Wednesday through Friday building value in a band it never lost. Value for the week settled at 7765.75 and the whole build sits above July’s high, so the entire prior month is underneath price now. Friday was a tight rotation inside 7743.50 to 7787.

NQ opened at 28565 and closed Friday at 29834, and the whole move happened Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday tagged 30074 and nothing has been back there since, which leaves a poor high sitting up top and July’s 30356.50 waiting behind it. Value for the week built at 29750 and Friday closed on the right side of it.

CL opened the week at 80.10, got taken apart Tuesday when the strike got called off, and bottomed at 74.44 Wednesday before crawling back. The week put its volume way down at 75.75 while Friday’s value rebuilt up at 77.54 to 78.44, so the recovery is real and it is standing on thin ground. It trades 78.72 tonight, back inside July’s value.

GC opened the week at 4083.40 and closed Friday at 4403.10 after tagging 4432.40. Value for the week centered at 4301 with a value area running from 4090.30 to 4363.60, which is what a market in full price discovery looks like on a profile. Friday built a tight shelf at 4393.30 to 4416.70 and it opened this week right back on it.

Cross-asset read: Equities and gold ran together all week, which means the market bought the growth story and the debasement story at the same time and did not feel weird about it. Crude was the only one of the four pricing a calmer world. Three charts at or near records and the fourth sitting back inside last month’s value is not a set of prices that all stay right.

Positioning (August 4 data): The trader crowd went into last week’s rip net short on both indexes, and on the Nasdaq they stacked on more shorts while barely touching the long side. Anybody leaning against this tape has been getting carried out. There is still fuel in that if it keeps running.

Vol: VIX closed at 14.90. That is priced for a quiet week, and last week’s range on all four of these says otherwise.

The Calendar

Monday: Bill auctions, nothing else. Light day.

Tuesday: NFIB small business at 5:00 AM CT, existing home sales at 9:00 AM CT, 3-year note auction at 12:00 PM CT.

Wednesday: CPI at 7:30 AM CT. Crude inventories at 9:30 AM CT, 10-year auction at 12:00 PM CT.

Thursday: PPI and jobless claims at 7:30 AM CT, Hammack and Barkin speak midday, 30-year auction at 12:00 PM CT. Applied Materials reports after the close.

Friday: Retail sales at 7:30 AM CT, Michigan sentiment at 9:00 AM CT.

No big tech reports this week. Wednesday 7:30 is the one that reprices everything.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. CPI Wednesday. The whole week is a coin flip until this lands. Every level below is a plan, not a prediction.

2. NQ 30074. Wednesday’s high, untouched for two sessions, and it went in without a taper. Poor highs get revisited before they get respected. July’s 30356.50 is the one behind it.

3. ES 7724.25. The floor of last week’s build. Everything above it is a market that broke out of July and held. Below it is a market that faded a breakout, and those two read very differently on Thursday morning.

4. CL 77.03. July’s value low. The bounce off 74.44 is either a real base or a dead-cat inside a broken market, and this is the line that answers it.

5. Gold’s 4301. Where the week did its business. Price is well above it and price discovery moves fast in both directions. Nothing structural until it gets back there.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES spent three sessions building a shelf and closed the week standing on top of it. 7765.75 is where the week did its business and the line the whole plan hangs on. Above it the first stop is 7787 Friday’s high, then 7813 week VAH, then 7820.25 the week high where the auction quit. Clear 7820.25 and there is nothing overhead but price discovery, because July’s whole range is underneath. Below 7765.75 the first catch is 7761 Friday VAL, then 7743.50 Friday’s low. Lose 7724.25 week VAL and the shelf is gone, and the slide runs into 7627.25 July’s high and 7615 July VAH stacked on top of each other. Under those two the real volume is at 7546 July POC, with 7541 the prior week’s high stacked right underneath it.

NQ:

NQ did all its work Monday and Tuesday and has been sitting still ever since. 29750 is the week’s volume and Friday closed above it. Above there 29960.25 week VAH is the first cap, then 30074, the high nobody has been back to since Wednesday. That print has no taper and no excess on it, so treat it as a magnet before you treat it as a wall. Clear it and 30311 July VAH and 30356.50 July’s high are the next two. Below 29750 fails and 29690 Friday VAL catches the first leg, then 29564.25 Friday’s low. Lose 29467 week VAL and there is air underneath down to 29300 July POC, then 28726 the prior week’s high and 28457.75 July VAL where the real volume sits.

CL:

Crude got taken apart Tuesday and has been rebuilding ever since, and it goes into the week standing on 78.12, last week’s value high. Above 78.12 it works to 78.50 Friday’s high, then 80.65 the week high where the breakdown started. Through 80.65 and the real target is 82.18 prior week VAL, then 84.50, where both July and the prior week parked their POC. Below 78.12 fails and 77.54 Friday VAL is the first catch, then 77.03 July’s value low. Lose 77.03 and 75.75 week POC is the magnet, with 74.73 week VAL and 74.44 the week low underneath it.

GC:

Gold is in price discovery and there is nothing above it except the number it prints next. 4363.60 is last week’s value high and the line that keeps this thing vertical. Above it Friday’s 4416.70 value high is the first shelf, then 4432.40, the week’s high and the record. Over 4432.40 there is no structure at all, only whatever the auction decides to build up there. Below 4363.60 fails and 4301 week POC is where the volume actually sits. Under 4301 it gets fast, because the week’s value area ran all the way down to 4090.30 with almost nothing in between, and the first real structure is 4253.20 July’s high, then 4148.70 July VAH.

The White Van Stuff

The book on the S&P is sitting at the top of its one-year range and the Nasdaq is not far behind it, so positioning is stacked heavy enough to pin these things until something big enough shows up to move them. Bonds are carrying almost none of that, down near the bottom of the year. Gold, silver and crude are all sitting mid-range, which means the metals move is running on actual buying instead of positioning.

ES: The cap is way up at 7900 and the interest between here and there is stacked thick, so the path higher is heavy without being blocked. Underneath, the book thins out fast. The next real shelf below price is the magnet at 7605.

NQ: The put floor is 29750, which is exactly where it closed the week, so the whole book is balanced on the line price is standing on. The cap is far away at 31000 and the interest thins out badly above 30250. Below 29750 the next real shelf is 29200.

CL: Crude is parked right on its magnet at 78.50, which is the most honest thing on the chart tonight. The band runs 74.34 to 79.82 and the cap is still up at 85, so the book has not written off a move back up. The floor is 74.

GC: The cap is 4510 and price is already inside reach of it, which tells you how fast this move outran its own book. The floor at 3900 is a leftover from a different price and does nothing this week. The live line underneath is the magnet at 4340.

Let’s work the problem, people.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES opened Wednesday at 7809.75, printed 7820.25 in the first stretch, then sold the rest of the session to close 7747.75 on a 7765.75 POC with value 7746 to 7795.75. The overnight opened 7756.75, put its low in at 7747.75 on the exact number Wednesday closed at, tagged 7770.75, and built value from 7755.75 to 7764.75. It trades 7759.50, riding the 7759.48 line the session has worked around all night. Hold 7755.75 and 7762 the print the night parked on and 7764.75 its lid are the first work, with 7765.75 Wednesday’s POC on the same shelf. Lose it and 7747.75 is the overnight low and Wednesday’s close on one price, with 7746 its value floor a tick under and 7635 where August’s value starts below all of it.

NQ opened Wednesday at 29975, printed 30074, and sold every hour into a 29606.50 close on a 29772 POC with value 29693 to 29946.75. The overnight opened 29569.50, failed at 29679, and went to 29364.75 before the morning bought it back, parking value from 29441.25 to 29579.25. It trades 29445.50, right on the base of that value after reclaiming it. Hold 29441.25 and 29500 the night’s anchor is the first test, then 29521.93 where the session has traded and 29579.25 the ceiling the night made. Lose it and the gate is 29364.75, with nothing built between there and 28944.20 where August’s value starts.

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The Tape

ES opened Tuesday at 7657.5, never looked back, and closed 7764 on a 7774 POC with value 7710 to 7785.75. The overnight opened 7772, based 7771, and ran 7805.5, and it trades 7801.75 with overnight value from 7783.25 to 7799.5. That puts price above yesterday’s high, above the night’s value, and above every price August has printed. Hold 7799.5 and this is price discovery with nothing overhead. Lose it and 7791 the night’s POC catches, then 7786 Tuesday’s high and 7783.25 where overnight value starts.

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