The Tape

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The Week That Was

The S&P and the Nasdaq both printed records Tuesday, then spent the next two sessions handing them back with the 10-year sitting near the highest yield it has carried since 2002. Thursday did the damage. Iran stepped up its tanker attacks, a storm shut in Gulf production, crude ripped to 93.20 and the Nasdaq took the worst of the selling. Friday the long end backed off after Thursday’s solid 30-year auction, the dollar slipped, and everything got bought, gold hardest of all.

ES is 7861, on 7859.25, Friday’s POC, and under 7866.75, the ceiling the week put on its value. Tuesday ran 7897.50, just shy of the 7906.25 high August made, and two days of selling dragged it to 7783 Thursday, on 7782, last week’s ceiling. Friday bought every bit of Thursday back, and nothing has traded over 7874.25, October’s value ceiling, since Tuesday.

NQ is 31111.75, a little over 31080, Friday’s POC, and under 31250, the POC this week shares with October. Tuesday printed a record at 31616.50 and by Thursday it had sold to 30792, back into last week’s value under 30840. Friday’s whole session traded under the week’s POC, with 31282.50, last week’s record, parked just over it.

CL is 91.92, a few cents over 91.89, where this week’s value ends, after Tuesday opened on the week’s 87.13 low and Thursday ran it to 93.20. The week built its volume down at 89.50, so Friday closed on top of everything it built, standing on 91.50, a POC Friday and October share, with last week’s 91.44 just under it. That’s a week of headlines that ended with crude agreeing on a price.

GC is 4216.20, closing Friday a few dollars off its weekly high and over 4213.70, the VAH last week left. Wednesday flushed to 4091.20, just over 4079.20, the low August made, and its value came in lower than last week’s, 4104.20 to 4189.10. Friday opened over all of it and never traded back in, so the close says buyers and the profile still says sellers.

Cross-asset read: ES, crude and gold all closed at or over the upper edge of the value their week built, and NQ is the one that closed under its own week’s POC. Last week NQ was the only chart that closed over everything its week did. This week it’s the only one with its week’s volume sitting overhead.

Positioning (October 6 data): The S&P crowd added shorts again and sits net short better than 129,000 contracts, in a week ES finished green. The Nasdaq crowd bought back most of the longs it dumped the week before and covered shorts too, net long about 57,000 as of Tuesday, the day NQ printed its record. Two sessions later NQ was trading back inside last week’s value.

Vol: VIX went out at 14.84, its lowest close of the week and under last Friday’s 15.31. That’s protection priced for a quiet week, and the next five sessions have the banks, a monthly expiration and two mornings of 7:30 data in them.

The Calendar

The banks talk first, the 7:30 prints talk loudest, and TSMC Thursday morning is the only read on the chips.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Wednesday at 7:30. The last inflation number before the end-of-month rate decision, and it lands on a VIX that just went out at the low of its week. The banks report the morning before, so the quarter already has a first draft by 7:30 Wednesday.

2. ES 7866.75. The week and Friday capped their value two ticks apart, 7866.75 and 7867.25, with 7874.25, October’s ceiling, right behind them. No session has closed over that shelf since Tuesday’s run to 7897.50 got sold, so this is where Friday’s repair either keeps going or gets sold the same way.

3. NQ 31250. Two timeframes put their POC on it, this week and October, with last week’s 31282.50 record just over it. Over it, Tuesday’s 31616.50 is the only number left on the map, and under 30978.25, the week’s value floor, last week’s range is next.

4. Crude’s 91.50. Friday and October left their POC on the same price with last week’s 91.44 a few cents under, and crude closed the week standing on all three. Lose it and 89.50, where this week actually traded the most, is the next real volume.

5. Gold’s gap. The hole between last week’s 4259 high and the 4279.50 low before it still hasn’t been touched. Friday closed over last week’s VAH, and that gap is where the buyers find out if Friday was real.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES is 7861, standing on 7859.25, the price Friday traded most, and the trigger is the shelf right overhead, 7866.75, where the week capped its value with Friday’s 7867.25 ceiling two ticks over it. Twice this week the market went over that shelf and got sold, Tuesday from 7897.50 and Friday from 7870.50, so the sellers get the benefit of the doubt until something closes over it. Take it and 7874.25, October’s ceiling, is the gate, then 7886 where August topped its value. Over those it’s 7897.50, Tuesday’s high, and 7906.25, the high August made, and past that pair the chart is empty. What argues for the buyers is 7824, where this week and October both traded the most, sitting under price instead of over it. Lose 7841.75, Friday’s value floor with 7841.50, August’s POC, a tick under it, and 7824 catches first. Under it 7807, the week’s value floor, has 7808, September’s ceiling, stacked on it. Then 7783, Thursday’s low, sits on 7782, the line last week capped its value at. Give up that pair and 7775, last week’s POC, is the last real volume in front of 7743, the POC September built.

NQ:

NQ is 31111.75, a little over 31080, Friday’s POC, and that print is the line, with the real work overhead at 31250, the volume shelf for the week and the month, and last week’s 31282.50 record stacked over it. Friday’s whole session traded under that shelf, the only day this week that stayed entirely below it, and that’s the problem with the long side. Take 31250 back and 31282.50 is the first test, then 31400 and 31411.50, the two value ceilings, week and month. Over those 31616.50, Tuesday’s record, is the only thing on the map, and past it the chart is blank. What NQ does have is a floor that already got tested, because Friday’s 30991 low held right over 30978.25, the bottom of the week’s value. Lose 30978.25 and 30840, last week’s VAH, catches first, then 30792, Thursday’s low. Under those 30625, last week’s POC with September’s 30623.25 ceiling on it, is the gate, then 30521.25, last week’s VAL. Below that floor 30356.75, the low last week made, is all that stands in front of 30216.50, the gap that’s been open since September.

CL:

Crude is 91.92, over the 91.44 to 91.50 stack, last week’s POC under the one Friday and October share, and that stack is the trigger. Three timeframes landing inside one dime after a week that ran from 87.13 to 93.20 is crude telling you where it wants to be. What argues against it holding is 89.50, where the most contracts changed hands this week, which leaves everything over 91.89 as a market that only spent two sessions up here. Two sessions is a visit, and crude hasn’t paid any rent over that line yet. Hold 91.50 and 92.00, September’s POC, is the first work, with 92.30, October’s ceiling, the gate right over it. Clear those and 93.01, last week’s ceiling, and 93.20, Thursday’s high, are next, then 95.70, the high last week made. Lose 91.29, Friday’s value floor, and 90.66, Friday’s low, catches, then 90.20, last week’s floor. Under that 89.58, September’s floor, sits right over 89.50, the POC the week built. Below 88.69, the week’s value floor, it’s 87.13, the low Tuesday opened on, and then nothing until 83.42, the low September made.

GC:

Gold is 4216.20, over 4213.70, last week’s VAH, with Friday’s 4214 POC printed right on it, and that pair is the trigger. Friday opened over all five sessions’ worth of value and never traded back into it. The problem is the week itself, which built its value lower than last week’s, 4104.20 to 4189.10, so one good session is sitting on top of a profile the sellers still own. Hold it and 4221.70, the week’s high, is the first job, then the 4259 to 4279.50 gap, last week’s high to the low the week before it, that nobody has traded since September. Fill the gap and 4318, September’s value floor, is the next real volume, with 4380.70, where August’s value starts, behind it. Lose 4207.80, Friday’s value floor, and 4190, last week’s POC, catches with the week’s 4189.10 ceiling on the same shelf. Under that shelf 4165, October’s POC, sits over 4161, last week’s VAL, and 4143.10, the low September and last week share, is the gate. Give up 4143.10 and 4140, this week’s POC, is the last volume before 4104.20, its floor. Under that it’s 4091.20, Wednesday’s low, and 4079.20, the low August made, with nothing under it.

The White Van Stuff

The weight in the books moved this week. The semiconductor book dropped from the 99th percentile of its own year to the 36th and the Nasdaq-100 ETF from the 93rd to the 67th, while the S&P book went from the 69th to the 94th and the Dow’s from the 25th to the 76th. Into Friday’s monthly expiration the S&P book still carries about two puts for every call and the tech book closer to four for every three, while crude’s runs more calls than puts and gold’s runs close to three calls for every put.

ES: The cap on this book came down to 7925 from 8000, and the biggest number in it is 7900, right under the cap with 7890 and 7875 stacked below it. The pivot moved up to 7835 from 7745, so price closed over it, with 7850 the nearest line underneath and the put floor still 7700. Price is 7861, over the 7850 and under the 7875.

NQ: The cap jumped to 31500 from 31000, and last week’s cap is now the heaviest line in the whole book, 31000, sitting under price with the 30980 pivot right beside it. Overhead it’s 31250 and 31400 before the cap, then a ladder from 31600 out through 31800. Price is 31111.75, over the 31100 and under the 31250.

CL: Crude’s cap came down to 95 from 100 and the pivot dropped to 89.75 from 91.50, so the whole cage stepped down under a price that closed the week higher. Most of the interest sits at 90, with 90.50 over it and the 89 through 87 ladder underneath, and overhead it’s 92, 92.50 and 93 before the cap. Price is 91.92, under the 92 and over the 90.50.

GC: Gold’s pivot fell to 4195 from 4295, so price closed over it, and the weight is at 4225, a few dollars over Friday’s close with 4220 and 4230 packed around it. Overhead it’s 4250 through 4325 and then nothing until the 4510 cap, with 4150 and 4120 under the pivot and the put floor still 4050. Price is 4216.20, over the 4215 and under the 4220.

Be the ball, Danny.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Tape

ES is 7841.75, inside the value the night built from 7836.75 to 7851 and a few points under the 7847.25 print, so the whole overnight auction happened above everything Thursday called value. The night ran Thursday’s 7850 high and couldn’t keep it, which leaves September’s high, Thursday’s high and the night’s top all piled into one five-point lid. Value moving up a full shelf is the buyers’ argument, a rejected high sitting right on top of it is the sellers’, and nobody has settled that yet. Hold 7836.75 and the 7847.25 print opens the lid, with 7879, October’s ceiling, the next real volume through it. Lose 7836.75 and 7827.25, Thursday’s open on Thursday’s ceiling, catches, with 7824, where this week and the month both did their volume, right under it.

NQ is 31190, sitting on the night’s 31193 print after buying back most of Thursday’s slide to 30792. Thursday did its business at 31235 before the sellers took it apart, and that print sits on the 31234.25 open with 31250, the week and October POC, right over it. Until NQ trades through that shelf the overnight rally is a rebound inside Thursday’s damage, and I’d want to see it hold up there before I believe it. Take 31250 and the night’s 31266.50 high comes next, with 31369.75, Thursday’s top, the only thing over it that matters. Lose 31073, the floor of the night’s value with September’s high a few ticks under it, and the next shelf is the night’s low on Thursday’s value floor at 30953 to 30949.25.

CL is 91.24, over the overnight value from 90.34 to 91.01 and a hair under last week’s 91.44 print. The night ran Thursday’s 90.25 low out to 90.01, found nobody home, and bought every bit of it back, which is a failed breakdown until somebody proves otherwise. Thursday sold from the open all day, and every price it sold from is still overhead, so this bounce has a lot of tired sellers to walk through. Hold 91.01 and clear 91.44, and 92.04, October’s ceiling with September’s print on it, is the next stop. Lose 91.01 and Thursday’s 90.92 POC catches first, then the low the night already bought back at 90.01.

GC is 4206, in the bottom half of the overnight’s value, 4195.80 to 4223.70, every tick of it above Thursday’s 4170.70 high. That is a full migration, Thursday’s entire session left behind in the dark, with 4218.80 the price the night agreed on sitting over the market. The one thing it has not done is hold the top, it tagged 4233.70 and has been leaking back toward the floor of its own value ever since. Hold 4195.80 and 4218.80 comes back first, then 4259, last week’s high and the month’s, is the ceiling. Lose the shelf where last week’s 4190 print meets the night’s floor and it is thin down to 4170.70, where Thursday topped out.

The Calendar

Friday, October 9 (all times CT):

- 9:00 Michigan Consumer Expectations - Prelim (Oct)

- 9:00 Michigan Current Conditions - Prelim (Oct)

- 9:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim (Oct)

- 9:00 Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations - Prelim (Oct)

- 9:00 Michigan Inflation Expectations - Prelim (Oct)

- 12:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count

- 2:30 CFTC Crude Oil Speculative Net Positions

- 2:30 CFTC Nasdaq 100 Speculative Net Positions

The Plan

ES:

The whole read is 7836.75, the floor of the overnight’s value, all of it over Thursday’s. Hold it and the 7847.25 print is the first work, then the lid where September’s high, Thursday’s and the night’s top all live, and it takes acceptance through 7853.75 to get anything done up there. That opens 7879, October’s ceiling, and 7897.50, the month’s high. Lose 7836.75 and ES is back inside Thursday’s day, with 7827.25 to 7824 the first shelf, Thursday’s open and ceiling on the month’s print. Under that, 7808 is the one that matters, Thursday’s POC on September’s ceiling, and the last stop is 7783.50, Thursday’s value floor with last week’s 7782 ceiling under it.

NQ:

NQ is sitting on the night’s 31193 print with the shelf Thursday’s sellers built right over its head. 31234.25 to 31250 is Thursday’s open and POC with the month’s print stacked on them, and NQ needs acceptance over 31250 before a long has anything to stand on. Through it, the night’s high and last week’s sit at 31266.50 and 31282.50, and the bigger target is 31369.75, where Thursday topped out. Lose 31073 and September’s 31065.50 high under it, and NQ is back in Thursday’s afternoon with 30949.25, Thursday’s value floor, the first catch. Under that, 30840 is last week’s ceiling, and below it Thursday’s flush stopped at 30792.

CL:

Crude is over the night’s value and under last week’s 91.44 print, and that print is the trigger. Clear it and 91.76, the night’s high, is the first test, then 92 to 92.04, September’s POC on October’s ceiling. Thursday’s 92.30 ceiling and 92.42 open sit right over that pair, where Thursday’s whole selloff started, and 93.01, last week’s ceiling, is as far as the card goes. Lose 91.01, the night’s value ceiling, and 90.92 Thursday’s POC goes, then 90.58, the night’s print. Under 90.34 the last floor is 90.20, last week’s value low, with the 90.01 low the night bought back sitting under it.

GC:

Gold’s decision is 4195.80, the bottom of the value it built over the top of Thursday. Hold it and 4207.50 to 4218.80 comes back, the high of this week’s day sessions and the night’s print, then 4233.70, the night’s high. 4259, last week’s high, is the ceiling, and over it 4318, the floor of September’s value, is a long way up. Lose 4195.80 and the 4194.30 to 4190 shelf goes with it, October’s ceiling on last week’s print, and below that the night only passed through on the way up. That leaves 4174.40, this week’s value ceiling, and 4170.70, Thursday’s high, then 4165, October’s POC.

The White Van Stuff

The index books put the day’s lids right on top of where price is parked, ES on Thursday’s high and NQ on the shelf Thursday’s sellers built, so the book and the profile agree on where the work is. Gold’s book says the night already spent most of the day’s room before anybody woke up, and crude is sitting in the middle of its band with nothing leaning on it either way.

ES: The same-day lid is 7850, on Thursday’s high to the point, so both maps put the ceiling in the same spot. 7860 is the next mark over it and the day’s band ends at 7885.50, with 7840 the closest mark under price and 7830 the pivot under that.

NQ: NQ is parked just under 31200, the nearest interest overhead, with the 31250 heavy mark and the 31300 same-day lid stacked over Thursday’s shelf. Today’s pivot is 31100 and the floor the book gives it for the day is 30900.

CL: Crude is under 91.50, today’s pivot, and over 90.50, the nearest interest beneath it, close to dead center of the day’s band. 93 is the same-day lid and 89.50 the day’s floor.

GC: Gold is already over 4200, the same-day lid, and a few dollars under 4211.50, the top of the day’s band. 4220 is the nearest mark over price and 4195 the nearest one under it.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Plan

ES: ES is under Tuesday’s low at 7860 and stuck between that and the overnight low at 7832. Back over 7860 puts Tuesday’s value from 7872 to 7887 back in play. Lose 7832 and there’s air down to Friday’s VAH at 7790.

NQ: NQ gave back the whole overnight and is about 200 points under Tuesday’s low. Friday’s high at 31283 is the first reclaim line. Under the overnight low at 31206 you’re back in Friday’s value, 31163 and then 31060.

CL: Crude’s trading over all of Tuesday’s range. Tuesday’s high at 89.85 is the line. Over the overnight high at 90.61, Monday’s high at 91.31 and Friday’s POC at 91.44 are next.

GC: Gold dropped about a hundred bucks off Tuesday’s close and it’s sitting on the overnight low at 4097, with nothing on the profile under it. It has to reclaim 4152, Monday’s low and Friday’s VAL, before Tuesday’s value means anything.

The White Van Stuff

ES: Gamma is positive on ES, so the options book leans against moves inside the band. 7820 is today’s pivot and the expected low on the same print, and the first call stack overhead is 7854.

NQ: NQ is sitting right on the biggest put interest at 31254. If it holds, the calls from 31456 to 31582 are overhead. If it goes, the next real put stack is 31002.

CL: Gamma is negative on crude, so moves can stretch instead of getting absorbed. The put floor at 89.81 is right under price and the call ceiling is up at 92.90.

GC: The first call interest overhead is 4117. The 4063 put floor is the biggest put stack under price, and today’s biggest put strike is lower at 4008.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

ES is 7767.25, just over 7765 where Friday’s value ended and under 7775, the one price Friday, last week and October all did their business at. The night went looking both ways, poked 7793 over Friday’s ceiling, dropped to 7760.50 under its floor, and settled on a 7770 print right back in the middle. That is a market that tested both edges of Friday’s value and accepted neither, and now it’s sitting under the POC three timeframes share. Take 7775 back and 7782, last week’s VAH, is the first job, then 7793 where the night already got turned away once. Lose 7760.50, the night’s low, and 7754 is Friday’s low, the last shelf before 7743, the POC September built.

NQ is 31009, sitting on the floor of the value the night built and a hair over Friday’s 31004.50 value low, one session after printing 31282.50 for the highest trade it has ever made. The night ranged from 31221.25 down to 30974.75, under Friday’s 30988 low, and never got back near the record. The record sits on one day of value, because the week did its business all the way down at 30625, and the night already put a foot through that floor. Get the 31059.25 to 31060 shelf back, October’s value high and Friday’s POC, and 31163, Friday’s ceiling, is the next stop. Lose 30974.75 and the profile is empty all the way down to 30840, last week’s value high.

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The Week That Was

The October rate hike the market was pricing a week ago is off the table, and it took two soft numbers to get it there. Wednesday’s inflation read came in lighter than expected and Friday’s jobs report finished the job, with unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. The Nasdaq went out green on the week with Nvidia printing a record, while the S&P and the Dow both went out red. The 10-year closed every session over 5.2 and the dollar finished the week stronger, and gold ate both, falling out of last week’s range Monday and never trading back into it. Crude ran to 96.54 Sunday night with the Strait of Hormuz still shut, sold to 88.58 by Wednesday, ripped Thursday when China’s refiners halted fuel exports for October and more US forces headed for the Middle East, then gave it back Friday on an emergency reserve release. OPEC+ met this morning and left November output where it was.

ES is 7779 and went out red on the week after opening Monday under last week’s 7804.50 close, sitting on 7775 where the week, Friday and October all put their POC. Thursday it got sold to 7672.75, under the floor of September’s entire value, and Friday took every bit of it back to 7810.25 before stalling right on top of 7808, the ceiling September’s value built. Sit out the whole week and you missed four sessions of selling and one of repair, and still finished about where Monday opened.

NQ is 31070 after printing 31282.50 Friday, the highest price it has ever traded, and it closed over everything its week built. The catch is the week did its business down at 30625, under last week’s 30740 POC, so value slid lower while price went higher and only Friday’s session lives up here. Monday’s 30356.75 low still left the 30216.50 gap from two weeks ago sitting there unfilled.

CL is 91.10, under 91.44 where the week and Friday both left their POC. It went 96.54 Sunday night to 88.06 Friday and built its value from 90.20 to 93.01, right inside the 90.21 to 93.80 box last week built. For all the noise, the week never built value anywhere last week hadn’t already built it.

GC is 4162.60, sitting on 4161, the floor of the value this week built, after Friday ran 4259 and sold the whole run back into the close. Monday flushed it through 4279.50, where last week bottomed, before the pit opened and on down to 4143.10 after it did, and the rest of the week never made it back up there. That’s three straight weeks of lower value, and this one built entirely under the last one.

Cross-asset read: NQ is the only one of the four that left the room. ES and crude both spent the week rebuilding last week’s value on top of itself, and gold built its whole week under last week’s low and couldn’t get back. One index printing records while ES closes red is a rally riding on the chip names.

Positioning (September 29 data): The S&P crowd added close to 11,000 shorts and trimmed longs again, taking the net short from 112,000 to better than 127,000 going into a week the index finished red. The Nasdaq crowd dumped about 9,500 longs and sits net long around 46,000, three sessions before NQ printed its record. The short crowd finally got paid and the Nasdaq longs sold too early.

Vol: VIX went out at 15.31, up from last Friday’s 14.87 after a 16.39 close Thursday. Protection got a little more expensive and is still cheap for a tape with the 10-year over 5.2.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. The long end. The 10-year closed every session last week over 5.2, and this week it has to clear a 3-year auction Tuesday, a 10-year Wednesday and a 30-year Thursday. A sloppy takedown at any of the three puts the rate argument Friday’s jobs number just settled right back on the table.

2. ES 7775. Three POCs on one print and last week’s 7771.50 a few ticks under it. Over it ES is a market waiting on somebody to pay 7808. Under 7743, September’s POC, it’s back in the chop that ate the whole month.

3. NQ 31060. Friday’s POC, printed right on 31065.50, last week’s record. Over it NQ is somewhere nobody has traded before. Give back 30950 and everybody who bought the record is holding the bag inside last week’s value.

4. Crude’s box. Two weeks, two value areas, 90.20 to 93.01 and 90.21 to 93.80, one stacked on the other. A close outside either edge is the first thing crude has done in two weeks that counts, and 88.06 and 95.70 are where the edges get real.

5. Gold’s gap. 4259 to 4279.50, Friday’s high to last week’s low, untouched all week. Until gold trades back into that hole, every bounce is happening underneath a market that already left.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES is 7779, standing on the 7775 shelf where this week, Friday and October all did their business, with last week’s 7771.50 POC a few ticks under it, and that stack is the trigger. Two straight weeks trading on the same shelf is a market that likes its price and is waiting on a reason to leave. The reason isn’t coming from the buyers yet, because Friday ran to 7810.25 and quit just over 7808, the ceiling September’s value built, then closed back down on the shelf. Hold 7775 and the first work is 7790.50, where Friday topped its value, then the 7808 and 7810.25 pair that turned Friday around. Clear that pair and 7824, last week’s value ceiling, opens 7841.50, the POC August built, with 7848.50, the high last week and September share, sitting right behind it. Lose 7771.50 and 7765, Friday’s value floor, catches first, then 7743, the POC September built. Under 7743 it’s 7723, where the week’s value began, and then the 7672.75 low Thursday printed under September’s entire value area. Below that low the map is empty to 7610.50, the low August made.

NQ:

NQ is 31070, a few points over 31060, Friday’s POC, and that print sitting right on 31065.50, last week’s record high, is the line. The old high turning into the price Friday did its business at is what a real breakout looks like, at least for one session. The problem is everything underneath, because the week built its volume at 30625, below last week’s 30740, and a record with no volume under it has nothing to land on if it fails. Hold 31060 and 31163, the top of Friday’s value, is the only thing between price and 31282.50, the record it printed Friday. Past 31282.50 the chart is blank, and any number I give you up there is made up. Lose 31004.50, the floor of Friday’s value, and 30950, where last week capped its value, catches first, then 30840, this week’s value ceiling. Under those the gate is 30625, where this week and October both left their POC with September’s value ceiling printed alongside them. Give up the gate and 30356.75, Monday’s low, is all that stands in front of 30216.50, the gap from two weeks ago that still hasn’t filled.

CL:

Crude is 91.10, under 91.44, the week’s POC with Friday’s sharing the number, and the whole plan hangs on that print, with 92.00, where last week and September both put their POC, sitting right over it. One headline after another dragged it from 95.70 down to 88.06 and the week still built its value inside last week’s box, two value floors sitting on 90.20 and 90.21. What argues for the downside is Friday, which printed the week’s low and closed under the POC, so the sellers had the last word going into the weekend. Take 91.44 back and 92.00 is the gate, then 93.01, the week’s ceiling, with 93.24, October’s, right over it. Through those, 93.80, last week’s ceiling, opens 95.70, the high this week made, and 96.78, last week’s. Lose 90.20, where both weeks’ value bottomed, and 89.58, September’s floor, catches, then 89.19, Friday’s. Under 88.06, the low Friday printed, there’s no volume on the map until 83.42, the low September made, with August’s 83.40 high sitting on it.

GC:

Gold is 4162.60, a hair over 4161, the floor of the week’s value, with Friday’s 4165 POC printed over it, and that pair decides the week. Friday’s run to 4259 got sold all the way back into the close. A week spent entirely under last week’s low, with its one real rally sold before it could touch it, is a chart the sellers are still running. What it has going for it is 4143.10, the low Monday’s flush printed, because Tuesday and Friday both went back toward it and neither got through. Hold 4161 and 4190, the week’s POC, with October’s 4200 right over it, is the first work, then 4213.70, the week’s value ceiling. Clear those and 4259, the week high, is the gate, with 4279.50 the top of the gap this whole week never touched. Over the gap it reads 4318, September’s floor, and 4320, last week’s POC, the shelf gold traded on before Monday. Lose 4153.80, Friday’s low, and 4143.10 is the gate, the low September and this week share, and under it the map is empty to 4079.20, the low August made.

The White Van Stuff

The weight in the books is parked where it has been the last three weeks, the semiconductor book at the 99th percentile of its own year, the Nasdaq-100 ETF at the 93rd and Meta and Microsoft in the 90s, while the banks sit at the 9th and small caps and gold at the 14th and 13th. Into Friday’s expiration the S&P book carries close to two puts for every call and the tech book about one and a half, while crude’s nearest books went from close to four puts per call a week ago to more calls than puts. Gold’s book runs dead even, and its whole cage stepped down with price, the cap from 4725 to 4510 and the put floor from 4250 to 4050.

ES: The cap on this book jumped to 8000 from 7830, and the heaviest line is still 7750 with the 7745 pivot printed right under it. Price closed 7779, a few points over the 7775 and under the 7825, inside a week band that runs 7638.75 to 7919.25.

NQ: NQ closed over its own 31000 cap, and the heaviest line in the whole book is 31250 right over price, with a ladder from 31300 out through 31750 stacked behind it. The pivot moved up to 30690 from 30090, and under the cap there’s nothing with weight until 30800. Price is 31070, over the cap and under the 31100.

CL: Crude closed under its own 91.50 pivot, with 90.50, the biggest number in the book, sitting right under price and 88.50 and 88 behind it. Overhead it’s 92.50 through 93.50, then 96 and the 100 cap, inside a week band of 84.87 to 97.33. Price is 91.10, between the 90.50 and the pivot.

GC: Gold’s heaviest line is 4150, just under Friday’s close, with 4125 and 4120 behind it and the put floor at 4050. Overhead there’s nothing until 4225, and the pivot is way up at 4295, over the top of the 4036.40 to 4288.80 week band. Price is 4162.60, over the 4160 and the 4150.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Tape

ES is 7761.25, sitting on the overnight POC at 7760 after the night rebuilt value above last week’s 7749.25 floor. Thursday sold from 7729.75 to 7672.75 and recovered to 7726, so the day was a failed selloff instead of a clean trend-down day. Globex never traded below 7723.25 and pushed to 7765.75, with value migrating up behind it instead of price wandering alone. Acceptance over 7765 opens 7771.50, last week’s POC, and 7786.25 at the week high, but a poke with no volume is the oldest trick in the book. Lose 7760 and the first real shelf is 7749.25, then September’s POC at 7743.

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The Tape

ES is 7742.75, sitting on 7743, where September’s POC and this week’s POC share a price with the 7742 overnight print right on top. The most traded price of the whole month is exactly where October starts, which is a polite way of saying September settled nothing. Wednesday built its value up at 7770 and sold to a 7713 close, so everybody who bought that print is underwater, and the night rallied to 7767.75 and quit just under it, which is those same longs selling the first chance they got. That shelf is theirs until something proves otherwise. Over 7752, Wednesday’s value floor, the shelf gets tested again, and below 7725.25, last week’s low, 7709.25 is next.

NQ is holding over Wednesday’s 30906 high at 30931.75, tucked under 30944.75, the ceiling of the value the night built. It’s the only one of the four that took out September’s high, ran 31151.50 in the dark and handed most of it back before my alarm went off. The night did its business way down at 30830, so that run was price going exploring with no volume behind it, and value that doesn’t follow price is a probe I don’t trust. What argues the other way is NQ holding over Wednesday’s entire range while ES can’t even get back to Wednesday’s POC. Hold 30906 and 30944.75 is the gate, lose it and 30873.75, Wednesday’s value ceiling, is the first catch.

CL covered more ground overnight than Wednesday did all day and landed at 91.48, a hair over 91.35, Wednesday’s POC. It swept 88.79, through last week’s 89.47 low, found nobody home down there, and ripped to 92.90, a failed breakdown with a big receipt. The night did its business at 92.47, sitting over the 92 where September and last week both built their POC, and a slow drift back under all that volume hasn’t proven anything to anybody. Hold 91.35 and 91.67, Wednesday’s value ceiling, is the gate back to that shelf. Lose 90.80 and the night’s 90.49 value floor catches.

GC is sitting below everything last week built at 4205.90, parked on 4206.60, where the overnight’s value topped out. This week’s 4251.10 high never got back to last week’s 4279.50 low, so there’s an untouched gap overhead that this week never got near. Underneath, three sessions left their volume on the same couple of dollars, the week’s 4188.80 POC, Wednesday’s 4189.50 and the night’s 4190, and three sessions agreeing on one price is the closest thing to a floor gold has had all week. The catch is the night ran to 4222.80 and stopped a dime under Wednesday’s 4222.90 value ceiling, so the sellers still own that. Clear 4210.60, this week’s value high, and the fight moves up there, lose 4188.80 and 4169.40, the overnight low, is next.

The Calendar

Thursday, October 1 (all times CT):

- 4:30 Challenger Job Cuts (Sep)

- 6:45 Fed’s Kashkari Speaks

- 7:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 26)

- 7:30 Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 19)

- 7:30 Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average (Sep 26)

- 8:45 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

- 9:00 Fed Waller Speaks

- 9:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

- 9:00 ISM Manufacturing Employment (Sep)

- 9:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices (Sep)

- 9:00 ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Sep)

- 9:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (Sep 25)

- 10:30 8-Week Bill Auction

- 10:30 4-Week Bill Auction

- 12:30 Fed’s Governor Jefferson Speaks

- 2:00 Fed’s Bowman speech

- 2:30 Fed’s Governor Cook Testifies

- 2:30 Fed’s Williams Speaks

- 3:30 Fed’s Balance Sheet (Sep 30)

- 3:30 Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks (Sep 30)

The Plan

ES:

7743 is September’s POC and ES is on it, so the first job is watching which side of it volume picks. Over 7752, Wednesday’s value floor, with 7749.25, last week’s value floor, just under it, ES gets a crack at 7762.75, this week’s VAH. Clear that and 7767.75 to 7771.50 is the shelf, the night’s high, Wednesday’s POC and last week’s POC stacked together, and the people who bought Wednesday’s top get to break even up there, so I want to see what happens before I trust anything over it. Lose 7725.25, last week’s low, and the week’s 7713.75 value floor and Wednesday’s 7709.25 low are one shelf, with the overnight low right behind it. Lose that and 7696.50, September’s value floor, is the last stop before 7575, September’s low.

NQ:

NQ has to hold 30906, Wednesday’s high, for the overnight run to mean anything, and nothing is decided between there and 30936.25. Over 30944.75, the overnight VAH, everything overhead is an old ceiling, 30950 last week’s value top and 30980.75 from Sep 22, places sellers already won once. Get through those and 31013, the Sep 23 high, opens the trip back to 31065.50, September’s high, with 31151.50, the overnight high, the last thing on the map, and this time I want volume following price up there, because last night it didn’t. Lose it and Wednesday’s 30873.75 value ceiling and 30850 POC are the first catch, with 30830, the night’s print, right under them. Under that, 30785.25, Wednesday’s value floor, opens 30740, last week’s POC, and 30724.75, where the overnight’s value bottomed.

CL:

Crude’s first job is 91.67, Wednesday’s value ceiling, with 91.35 underneath it the level that has to hold. Over it, 91.96, Wednesday’s high, is the doorstep to 92, September’s POC and last week’s on one price, with the night’s 92.47 print sitting on top. That’s the most agreed-on price on crude’s chart, so clearing it and the 92.90 overnight high opens 93.80, last week’s value top, with 95.70, this week’s high, the last of it. Lose 90.80, Wednesday’s value floor, and 90.49 to 90.21 is one shelf, the overnight value floor sitting on last week’s. Under that, 89.99, this week’s value floor, is all that stands in front of 89.58, the bottom of September’s value.

GC:

4206.60 and 4210.60 are stacked right over gold, the overnight value ceiling and this week’s, and gold has to get through both before a bounce counts. Clear them and 4220.80 to 4222.90, Wednesday’s open and value ceiling, is the first wall, the same spot the night stalled, with 4251.10, Wednesday’s high and the week’s, behind it. Over that, the gap up to 4279.60, last week’s value floor, hasn’t been traded all week, and 4318 to 4320, September’s VAL on last week’s POC, is the far end of it. Lose 4188.80, the week’s POC with Wednesday’s and the night’s on the same couple of dollars, and 4181.50, Wednesday’s value floor, goes first, then 4169.40, the overnight low. Under that, the only level left on the map is 4163.80, the floor of this week’s value.

The White Van Stuff

Both index books put their same-day lid right over the shelf the profile already flagged, which is the book and the chart agreeing for once. Crude’s book is upside down, with the same-day floor sitting over price, a few ticks from where the night did its business. Gold’s crams today’s pivot, the floor and the lid into one tight pile right overhead.

ES: ES is between 7745, the pivot, and 7730, today’s pivot. The same-day put floor at 7725 sits on last week’s low and the 7775 lid sits just over Wednesday’s POC, so the book and the profile agree on both ends. Price is 7742.75, under the 7745.

NQ: NQ ran through 31000, the same-day lid, and even printed over 31110.50, the high end of the day’s band, before coming back under all of it. 30900 is the nearest mark under price and the floor for the day sits way down at 30500. Price is 30931.75, between the 30900 and the 31000 lid.

CL: Crude’s same-day floor is 92.50, over price and a few ticks above the 92.47 print the night built, with the 93.50 lid just past the band’s upper end. Under price it’s 91, the pivot, then 90.75, today’s pivot. Price is 91.48, between the 91 pivot and the 92.50.

GC: Gold’s book stacks 4220, 4225 and 4230 right over price, the nearby mark, today’s pivot and the same-day put floor on one number, and today’s cap, with the first two sitting on Wednesday’s open and value ceiling. Under price it’s 4180, then 4150 for the put floor and 4132.50 at the bottom of the band. Price is 4205.90, between the 4180 and the 4220.

It’s a trap!

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES is 7733.75, back on Tuesday’s 7732.50 close and 7731 POC after losing the entire overnight value, and 7731 is the line that decides it. Tuesday could not keep 7758.50, then closed 7732.50 on a 7731 POC. The overnight built above that close, but the trip from 7756.50 back to 7732.50 erased the whole audition. Reclaim 7741.25, the base of overnight value, and 7745.25 is the first proof before 7752.50. Lose 7731 and last week’s 7725.25 low catches before Tuesday’s 7722.50 value floor.

NQ is 30593.25, parked between 30586.75 overnight VAL and the 30600 overnight print, a shelf that has to pick a side at 30600. Tuesday could not keep 30725.50 and closed 30617 on a 30615 POC, so the day did its business well above current price. The night ran 30737, then dumped to 30539.75 and left price clinging to the bottom of the value it built. Take 30600 back and buyers run into Tuesday’s 30615 POC, with the 30617 close sitting on it. Give up 30588.25, the September VAH, and 30557.25 catches before the 30539.75 overnight low.

CL is 90.31, sitting on Tuesday’s 90.34 POC after the overnight bought back above its own 89.88 value ceiling, and that is a reclaim with exactly zero room for victory laps. Tuesday ran 91.76, then closed 89.35 near its 89.29 low. The night swept 88.58, and put value back above 89.05 before the rebound. Hold 90.34 and the 90.64 overnight high is the gate, then 90.76 Tuesday open. Lose 90.21, last week’s value floor, and 89.99 catches before the 89.58 September VAL.

GC is 4215.40, holding over 4210 overnight VAL after opening the night above Tuesday’s 4207.20 high, and that is the cleanest location of the four. Tuesday settled 4180.70 under its 4182.60 value floor after failing at 4207.20, then the overnight ignored all of it. Globex traded around 4216.13 VWAP, built its 4227 POC upstairs, and has kept the 4197.60 low away from current price. Hold 4210 and price works into 4227 before the 4234 overnight high. Lose 4210 and Tuesday’s 4207.20 high is the gate to the 4197.60 overnight low.

The Calendar

Wednesday, September 30 (all times CT):

- 7:15 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)

- 7:30 PCE Price index (MoM) (Aug)

- 7:30 Core PCE - Price Index (YoY) (Aug)

- 7:30 GDP Price Index (Q2)

- 7:30 Goods Trade Balance - Prelim (Aug)

- 7:30 PCE Prices (Q2)

- 7:30 Real Personal Consumption (Aug)

- 7:30 Core PCE Prices (QoQ) (Q2)

- 7:30 Real Consumer Spending (Q2)

- 7:30 Personal Spending (MoM) (Aug)

- 7:30 GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

- 7:30 Core PCE - Price Index (MoM) (Aug)

- 7:30 PCE Price index (YoY) (Aug)

- 7:30 Personal Income (MoM) (Aug)

- 8:45 Chicago PMI (Sep)

- 9:00 Dallas Fed PCE (Aug)

- 9:30 EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks (Sep 25)

- 9:30 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (Sep 25)

- 9:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Sep 25)

- 9:30 EIA Refinery Crude Runs (Sep 25)

- 9:30 Crude Oil Imports (Sep 25)

- 9:30 EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (Sep 25)

- 9:30 Crude Oil Inventories (Sep 25)

- 2:25 Fed’s Governor Cook Testifies

- 3:05 Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks

- 5:00 Fed’s Kashkari Speaks

The Plan

ES:

ES is 7733.75, sitting on the 7732.50 Tuesday close with the 7731 POC underneath, and the job is proving this shelf has buyers. Acceptance above 7741.25 overnight VAL puts 7743, the September POC, back in play before 7749.25 prev week VAL. Clear the 7756.50 overnight high and 7757.50 Tuesday open and August’s 7763.25 value floor is the first prior-month paper overhead. Break 7731 and last week’s 7725.25 low catches before 7712.25, where Tuesday and this week both bottomed. Under that shelf the 7691.75 September VAL opens August’s 7610.50 low, then 7575 where September bottomed.

NQ:

NQ is 30593.25, barely over 30586.75, where overnight VAL and the August high land on the same price, and that stack means something with September’s 30588.25 ceiling on top. Take 30600 and the first test is the 30615 Tuesday POC, then the 30625 week POC. Acceptance through 30650 opens last week’s 30658.25 value floor and the 30675.25 overnight VAH. Lose 30588.25 and the 30557.25 Tuesday VAL catches before the 30539.75 overnight low. Below 30504.50 the map thins to 30221.75 August VAH on the 30216.50 prev week low.

CL:

CL is 90.31, balanced between Tuesday’s 90.34 POC and last week’s 90.21 value floor, and the catch is how many ways this narrow spot can make somebody look smart after the fact. Hold 90.34 and the 90.64 overnight high is the gate before the 90.76 Tuesday open. Acceptance above 91.22 brings the 91.76 Tuesday high and 92, the prev week and September POC. Lose 90.21 and the 89.99 Tuesday VAL opens 89.58, September’s value floor. Under the 89.35 Tuesday close, this map has no prior-month paper before the 83.40 August high and 82.35 August VAH.

GC:

GC is 4215.40, holding 4210 overnight VAL over Tuesday’s 4207.20 high, and that is the cleanest shelf on the board even though buyers have not cleared the night’s volume. Hold 4210 and price works into the 4227 overnight POC before the 4234 high. Acceptance there opens 4279.60 prev week VAL, 4320 prev week POC, then 4324.70 September VAL. Above that, 4367.60 prev week VAH and 4380.70 August VAL are the upper paper. Lose 4210 and the overnight low opens the shared POC at 4187, then Tuesday’s close at 4180.70.

The White Van Stuff

The white van parked both index cages right on current price and left everyone arguing over a few ticks like adults. Crude has heavy paper stacked above it, while gold has a clean floor nearby and enough space overhead to make the duct tape nervous. Completely normal market behavior.

ES: ES is under 7750, where today’s pivot and put floor landed on the same number, with 7760 the lid buyers have to clear. The first marks below price are 7725 and 7720, while the band stretches to 7672.50. Price is 7733.75, caught between 7725 and 7750.

NQ: NQ has 30600 sitting just overhead and today’s 30540 pivot underneath, so current price is already inside the smallest useful cage. The floor for the day is 30300 with the 30285.25 band low on it, while 30750 is today’s cap. Price is 30593.25, under 30600 and over 30540.

CL: CL is back over 90, the floor for the day, but still under 90.50, the nearest mark above price. The upside stacks the 91.75 pivot under today’s 92 cap and the 92.06 band high. Price is 90.31, over 90 and under 90.50.

GC: GC is over 4200, where today’s pivot and put floor share one number, with 4220 the first mark overhead. Today’s cap is 4235 and the band high is 4272.90, while 4157.10 leaves real room underneath. Price is 4215.40, over 4200 and under 4220.

Tradingview Enjoyers, its time to grow up and realize your indicators suck, are not based on real volume and tick data, and can be reverse-engineered in an hour. It’s not that deep.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES is 7761.5, nine points off the 7770.75 overnight high and holding over 7751.25 overnight VAH after reclaiming Monday’s 7746.25 close and POC. The night ran 7716 through last week’s low and bought every tick back, a failed breakdown that found buyers early and kept going. Hold 7751.25 and 7763.75 September POC is the first real argument, then 7765.50 Monday VAH and the 7770.75 high. Lose 7751.25 overnight VAH and 7746.25 catches, then 7743.75 the night’s print before value gives way at 7735.25.

NQ is 30677.0, sitting right on the 30675 Monday VAH after clearing 30658.25 prev week VAL overnight, with the 30707 overnight high 30 points up. It took back Monday’s whole value area, so the reclaim is done and the question now is whether it accepts up here. Hold 30675 and 30707 gets tested first, then 30718 Monday open with 30740 prev week POC behind it. Give up 30658.25 and 30638 Monday POC catches, then 30592.75 overnight VAH with 30567.50 Monday close waiting below it.

CL is 91.27, three ticks under 91.30 Monday VAL and sitting on the 91.25 Monday low after the night flushed to 90.80 and bounced. It is out the bottom of Monday’s value with the 92.00 POC shared by September and last week 73 ticks overhead. Reclaim 91.30 and 92.00 becomes the fight, then 92.22 overnight VAL and 92.58 Monday POC put 93.80 prev week VAH back in play. Lose 91.25 and 90.80 overnight low catches before 90.22 September VAL.

GC is 4187.4, six bucks under the 4193.30 overnight high and over the 4180.40 overnight VAH. Monday reached 4203.80, failed to keep the open, and closed down after sellers owned the afternoon. The night built its POC at 4166, walked back through the top of value, and capped out just over here. Clear 4193.30 and Monday’s 4199.70 open comes before the 4203.80 high. Fall back under 4180.40 and 4177.20 catches first, then the whole reclaim is in trouble at 4166.

The Calendar

Tuesday, September 29 (all times CT):

- 8:00 House Price Index (MoM) (Jul)

- 8:00 S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Jul)

- 8:00 S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Jul)

- 9:00 JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)

- 9:00 Consumer Confidence (Sep)

- 9:30 Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Sep)

- 10:00 Fed’s Bowman speech

- 10:30 52-Week Bill Auction

- 11:40 Fed’s Barr Speaks

- 12:00 Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks

- 1:00 Fed’s Williams Speaks

- 2:00 Fed Waller Speaks

- 3:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (Sep 25)

The Plan

ES:

ES is 7761.5, a few points under 7763.75 September POC and holding above Monday’s close after printing 7770.75 overnight, which means the reclaim has legs if it accepts here. Acceptance over 7763.75 opens 7765.50 Monday VAH, then the 7770.75 overnight high with 7771.50 prev week POC stacked right on it. Once that shelf gives, 7786.25 Monday high comes before 7814.75 September VAH. Back under 7751.25 overnight VAH, 7746.25 Monday close meets 7743.75 overnight POC, the first place sellers have to prove the break was real. Below 7735.25 Monday VAL, 7729 overnight VAL then 7725.25 prev week low are the last real catches before 7691.25 September VAL.

NQ:

NQ is 30677.0, a couple of points over 30675 Monday VAH with the prev week VAL and Monday POC already behind it, a reclaim that now has to hold value instead of chase it. Accept over 30675 and 30707 overnight high comes up first, then 30718 Monday open and 30740 prev week POC before 30950 prev week VAH. Give back 30658.25 prev week VAL and 30638 Monday POC catches, then 30592.75 overnight VAH and 30567.50 Monday close before 30507.50 Monday VAL. Under 30507.50, the bottom of the wider map is 30440 overnight POC sitting over 30419 overnight VAL.

CL:

Crude is 91.27, three ticks under 91.30 Monday VAL and a couple over the 91.25 Monday low, so it is hanging off the bottom of Monday’s value after the overnight flush to 90.80. Reclaim 91.30 and the 92 POC shared by September and last week is where the fight starts, then 92.22 overnight VAL and 92.58 Monday POC put 93.80 prev week VAH back in the auction. From there 94.00 overnight POC and 94.14 overnight VAH lead to 94.36 Monday VAH. Lose 91.25 and 90.80 overnight low catches first, then 90.22 September VAL where the month’s value ends. Below that, 89.47 prev week low and 83.42 September low are the distant catches.

GC:

Gold is 4187.4, 70 ticks over 4180.40 overnight VAH and a few dollars under the high of the night, so the reclaim is real but unfinished. Hold the value edge and 4193.30 gives way to 4199.70 Monday open, where sellers already won once. Clear 4203.80 and 4279.60 prev week VAL is the next real shelf, with 4380.70 August VAL above the whole stack. Slip under 4180.40 overnight VAH and 4177.20 Monday VAH catches before 4166 overnight POC. Below 4166, the 4143.10 September low is the last session level before 4079.20 August low.

The White Van Stuff

Both index books have more weight stacked above current price than immediately below it, and NQ is already trading through the first of it while ES sits between its 7755 pivot and 7800. Crude trades under its same-day floor while gold is pressing the upper end of its daily band. Four books, four different arguments, very helpful.

ES: The book puts 7755 at today’s pivot, now just under price, with 7750 and 7745 the next marks below and 7730 the same-day floor underneath, while 7800 is the first thing above. Price is 7761.5, over the 7755 pivot and under the 7800.

NQ: NQ has 30675 as today’s cap and is trading two points over it, with 30750 the next stop above and 30600 and the 30590 pivot underneath. Price is 30677.0, over the 30675 cap and under the 30750.

CL: Crude is 73 ticks under 92, where the same-day floor sits, with 90.50 the nearest mark below it and 93 carrying today’s pivot above. Price is 91.27, under the 92 floor and over the 90.50.

GC: Gold is pressing the top of its daily band with 4200 as today’s cap and 4204 as the expected high, while 4175 is the nearest mark underneath. Price is 4187.4, over the 4175 and under the 4200.

Wax on, wax off.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES is 7766.75, sitting on 7769, the overnight POC, with 7763.25, the floor of August’s value, right under it and nothing decided in between. The night sold Friday’s 7804.50 close all the way to 7757, so Friday’s entire value from 7779 to 7812.75 is overhead and everybody who bought it is underwater. It is still inside what last week built and a few ticks under 7771.50, last week’s POC, so for now this is a pullback that hasn’t broken anything. Take 7771.50 back and 7778.25 to 7779 is the next shelf, the overnight VAH on Friday’s VAL, with 7803.50, the POC Friday closed on, behind it. Lose 7757 and Friday’s 7752.75 low goes with it into 7749.25, the bottom of last week’s value, then 7711.50 where September did its business.

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The Week That Was

The 10-year touched 5.23 Friday and settled 5.18, and the 30-year went out over five and a half. The S&P still put up its first winning week in three with the Nasdaq leading, and the Dow finally snapped a three week losing streak. The AI names did the lifting again, Microsoft ripped Friday on a software announcement, and Xi came and went from Washington with chip export controls left off the table entirely. Crude sold to 89.47 Tuesday when Saudi Arabia got its East-West pipeline pumping again, then ran to 96.78 Thursday on a rumor the White House wants a ninety day diesel export ban. It gave all of it back Friday when word got out that US and Iranian negotiators are working on a phased deal to reopen Hormuz and lift the port blockade. Gold sold four straight sessions with the dollar at a two month high and the odds of another hike in October moving from a coin flip to seventy percent. Wednesday morning’s inflation number and Friday’s payrolls are the two prints that set that number before the next meeting.

ES is 7804.50, sitting on Friday’s 7803.50 POC, in the upper half of the week’s value and above the 7787.25 ceiling September’s value built. The week gapped over everything last week did and ran 7848.50 Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday it fell back to the 7708.75 to 7715 shelf where last week and September both left their POC, and Thursday’s overnight went to 7707.25, kissed it and turned. Buyers took the whole thing back in one Friday session. A week that gaps up, gets sold for two days and closes near the top is a week where the dip buyers are still running it. The number they bought is the number I’ve got the whole month hanging on.

NQ is 30891.50, over every price August built and over September’s 30467.25 value ceiling, sitting on Friday’s 30912 POC under the 30950 ceiling the week put on itself. It gapped from 29916.25 to 30222 on Monday’s open and never went back, then printed 31065.50 Wednesday for fresh highs. The two session hit that followed bottomed at 30370 in Thursday’s overnight and got bought right back into Friday’s close. The Monday gap at 30216.50 is still open. Every dip this week held above it, which makes this either the strongest chart on the board or the most crowded one, and I think the positioning data below says both.

CL is 92.24, sitting on 92.00, where the week’s POC and September’s POC print on the same price with Friday’s 92.20 POC stacked over them. It opened the week 93.70, sold to 89.47 Tuesday, ran 96.78 Thursday and finished right back where it started. All of that happened under the entire range last week traded. Three timeframes leaving their volume on one number after a week like that means the auction agreed on 92 and disagreed on everything else.

GC is 4321.30, on the week’s 4320 POC and under September’s 4341.90 value floor, after selling four straight sessions from 4405.60. Thursday printed 4279.50, a new low for the month under last week’s 4293, and Friday bought it back to the POC and stopped. Third down week in four, and it gave back the whole reclaim it made last Friday in one Monday session.

Cross-asset read: The indexes closed above the volume their week built and the commodities closed sitting exactly on theirs. ES and NQ went to their shelves Thursday and bought them, crude and gold went to new lows for the month and only got back to their POCs. Same rates, same dollar, opposite results, and I don’t have a clean story for why.

Positioning (September 22 data): The S&P crowd went from net short 83,000 to net short better than 112,000 in a week the index gapped up and held. They dumped close to 25,000 longs and added shorts besides. The Nasdaq crowd did the opposite again, adding longs and covering close to 13,000 shorts to sit net long better than 52,000. One crowd leaning against the tape and the other leaning with it, on two indexes that closed the week in the same place.

Vol: VIX went out at 14.87, the same number it printed the Friday before, with the 10-year at a nineteen year high and payrolls five sessions out. Nothing in that number says anybody’s worried about Friday.

The Calendar

Eleven speaking slots in five days and two prints that matter. Everything between them is noise with a time stamp.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Friday at 7:30. The September jobs number lands with October hike odds sitting at seventy percent, and every read below this line is conditional until it prints. Wednesday’s 7:30 inflation number gets to set the mood two days early.

2. ES 7711.50. September’s POC, with last week’s 7708.75 POC and its 7715 ceiling stacked on it, and Thursday’s 7707.25 overnight low printed right underneath the pile. Everything above that shelf is a market that bought the dip. Under it, Wednesday and Thursday were the start of something.

3. NQ’s Monday gap. 30216.50 is the week low, August’s 30221.75 value ceiling sits on it, and nothing has traded there since Monday’s open. As long as that gap stays open the breakout week stands. Fill it and NQ is back inside August with a lot of people offside.

4. Crude on 92. The week, the month and Friday all left their POC on the same number. Whichever edge of Friday’s range goes first, 93.29 or 91.54, gets the next leg, and 96.83 is where last week’s value begins while 90.21 is where September’s ends.

5. Wednesday’s quarter turn. Month-end and quarter-end land on the same session as the inflation number, with the memory chip report after that close. Thursday prints new monthly opens on all four charts and everything I call September in this brief becomes last month overnight.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES is 7804.50, standing on Friday’s 7803.50 POC with 7771.50, the week’s POC, and August’s 7763.25 value floor stacked underneath, and that stack is the trigger. What the week proved is that the 7708.75 to 7715 shelf, where September and last week both left their POC, has real buyers on it, because Thursday’s overnight went to 7707.25 and turned around inside one session. What it hasn’t proved is that it can hold above 7824, the ceiling its own value built, since Tuesday’s 7848.50 got sold for two straight days. Hold 7771.50 and the first work is 7814.75, Friday’s high, with the week’s 7824 ceiling right over it. Through 7824 the target is 7841.50, August’s POC, where the summer put its actual volume, and 7848.50, the double top the week and the month share. Past that pair there’s nothing on the map until 7886, where August topped its value, and 7906.25 its high. Lose 7771.50 and the first catch is 7752.75, Friday’s low sitting on the week’s 7749.25 floor. Under that it’s 7725.25 the week low and then the 7711.50 shelf, the gate for the whole read. Give up 7708.75 and the next real volume is 7668.25, last week’s value floor, and 7661, September’s.

NQ:

NQ is 30891.50 and the line is 30740, the week’s POC, because the whole breakout lives above it and price hasn’t closed under it since Monday’s gap. Above price the map is short: 30912 Friday’s POC, 30950 where the week and Friday both capped their value, and 31065.50, the high the week and the month share. Clear 31065.50 and there’s nothing, it’s price discovery, and I’ll be watching the overnight singles it leaves behind rather than guessing a number. The argument against chasing it is where the week actually did its business, because 30740 sits well under the close and Thursday’s overnight already went to 30370 once. Lose 30740 and 30684, Friday’s low on the week’s 30658.25 floor, catches first. Then 30586.75, the high August made, is the gate, because under it this week’s breakout is back inside the old month. Below the gate it’s 30467.25, September’s value ceiling, and then the 30216.50 week low with August’s 30221.75 ceiling printed on it, the Monday gap that never filled. Fill the gap and the map is empty until the 29903 shelf, where last week’s ceiling and August’s POC print together, and 29739.25, September’s POC.

CL:

Crude is 92.24 sitting on 92.00, and that number is the whole plan, because the week’s POC, September’s POC and Friday’s 92.20 POC all landed on it. It went 93.70 to 89.47 to 96.78 and back in four sessions, so the profile is a fat middle with two failed excursions, and nobody who bought the Thursday rip or sold the Tuesday flush is happy tonight. That’s a rotation week, and 92 is where the market agrees until one edge of Friday’s range goes. Take 93.29, Friday’s ceiling, and 93.80 the week’s is right behind it, then 94.23 Friday’s high. Through 94.23 the work is 95.53, last week’s low, then 96.83 where last week’s value began with the 96.78 week high sitting on it. That pair is the gate back into a market that traded 100 two weeks ago. Past the gate it reads 97.44, last week’s POC, then 99.95 its ceiling and 100.58 where September’s value tops. Lose 91.54, Friday’s low and value floor on one print, and 90.21 catches, the floor the week and September share. Under 90.21 it’s 89.47 the week low and then nothing, the profile is empty down to 83.42, September’s low, with August’s 83.40 high sitting right on it.

GC:

Gold is 4321.30 on the week’s 4320 POC, under September’s 4341.90 value floor, and 4320 is the trigger because it’s the only price this week where buyers and sellers agreed on anything. It sold from 4405.60 Monday morning to 4279.50 Thursday, a new low for the month under last week’s 4293, and Friday’s bounce got it back to the POC and stopped. Four straight sessions of business under the month’s value with the dollar at a two month high is a chart that has to prove something before I’m interested from the long side. Hold 4320 and the first job is 4341.90, September’s value floor, with Friday’s 4345.30 high printed over it. That’s the reclaim that puts gold back inside its month. Over it the work is 4367.60 the week’s ceiling and 4380.70 where August’s value began, then 4397.90 last week’s ceiling. Through those the 4408 September POC with the 4407.80 week high printed on it is the gate. Above the gate 4427.60 last week’s high and 4442.70 August’s POC are the only volume left overhead. Lose 4320 and 4306.50, Friday’s value floor, catches, then 4293, where last week’s low and value floor print together with Friday’s 4289.20 low under them. Give up 4279.50 and there’s nothing, no volume on this contract until 4079.20, the low August made.

The White Van Stuff

The weight in the index books is parked in the same corner it was last week, with the semiconductor book at the 98th percentile of its own year, the Nasdaq-100 ETF at the 91st and Microsoft and Meta in the 90s, while small caps sit at the 9th, the banks at the 16th and the long bond at the 16th. The S&P book swung from the 94th percentile Monday to the 58th Wednesday and back to the 81st Friday, which is a book chasing the tape instead of leaning on it. Into Friday’s expiration both index books carry better than two puts for every call, crude’s nearest book carries closer to four, and gold’s is the only one running even.

ES: The cap on this book is 7830, sitting right over the 7824 ceiling the week’s value built, so the options crowd and the profile drew the same line. Underneath, the heaviest interest in the book is 7750 with the 7755 pivot stacked on it, and the 7700 put floor lands on the same shelf the profile calls the gate. Price closed on the 7800 line, between the two, with the week band running 7664.75 to 7944.25.

NQ: The tech book has 31000 as its cap with 31100 and 31250 stacked right behind it, all of it inside the week band, and nothing under price with real weight until 30800 and 30750. The pivot in this book is all the way down at 30090 with 29000 the first floor under it, which tells you the options crowd built this cage before the Monday gap and hasn’t caught up. Price is 30891.50, over the 30800 and under the cap.

CL: Crude’s book has 95 as its heaviest line and it sits right over price, with the 100 cap the only thing above it that matters. Under price the 91.50 pivot is the first line, then 90.50, then a hole to the 87 and 86 cluster with 80 the last thing the book owns. Price is 92.24, under 92.50 and sitting on the pivot, with the nearest expiration carrying close to four puts for every call.

GC: Gold’s book is the only one on the board with its heaviest interest under price: 4275 and 4300 are the two biggest lines and both sit below Friday’s close, with the 4250 put floor right under them. Overhead the pivot is 4330 and then a ladder from 4350 through 4400 into a 4725 cap that hasn’t mattered since August. Price is 4321.30, under the pivot and over the 4300.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Tape

ES is 7783.25, a tick under 7783.50 where Thursday topped out on the ceiling of September’s value, and back under 7790, the print the night built its whole session around. The night stacked its value from 7769.75 to 7800.25 right on top of Thursday’s, and buyers don’t build a box like that by accident. What it hasn’t done is get through 7800, the same-day lid in the options book, sitting on the 7800.75 overnight high with 7824 over it where this week’s value topped out. That 7824 is the reoffer spot if all of this turns out to be a bounce. Stay under 7783.50 and the next shelf is Thursday’s POC at 7770, with this week’s print stacked on it at 7770.75.

NQ is 30875.75, back under 30888, the print the night built on, and hanging on to 30870, the top of this week’s value, by a few points. The night ran 30999.50, two ticks under the 31000 same-day lid, and got turned back right there. I hate the big round numbers, it’s so dumb, and the market clearly agrees because that’s where somebody sold it. Buyers still built value the whole way up overnight, 30789.75 to 30999.25, so this wasn’t a thin poke through the highs. Under 30870, Thursday’s ceiling is the catch, 30819 up to the 30827.50 high.

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The Tape

ES is 7726.25, back inside last week’s territory after the night sold straight through Wednesday’s 7758.75 low and didn’t stop until 7707.25, right on 7708.75, the POC last week built, with September’s 7711.50 print sitting on top of it. When last week and the whole month leave their volume on the same few points, that’s where somebody defends, and they did. What buyers haven’t done is get back over 7743, where the night built its value before sellers took it lower, and 7743 to 7750 is where sellers already won once, so assume they’re still there. Take 7750 back and 7758.75 to 7763.25, Wednesday’s low with August’s value floor on it, is the line that says Wednesday’s selloff is done. Lose 7718.25, the floor of the night’s value, and 7708.75 to 7711.50 has to hold a second time, because under 7707.25 the map is empty to 7668.25, where last week’s value starts.

NQ is 30448.25, sitting on 30440, the print the night built its session around, after selling from 30813 to 30370 and leaving Wednesday’s whole 30657.25 to 30783.50 value area behind it. It also gave back 30586.75, August’s high, the level this week’s rally ran through on the way to 31065.50, and that’s the one that bugs me. Value built at the bottom of the night, so sellers weren’t just running stops down here, they stayed and did business. Take 30586.75 back and 30657.25, Wednesday’s value floor, is the first real test with 30689.75, the top of overnight value, right behind it. Lose 30370, the night’s low and value floor on the same tick, and there’s nothing until 30221.75, where August’s value topped out.

CL is 93.70, up near the top of an overnight value area that runs all the way from 91.26 to 93.83, and over Wednesday’s 92.18 close. It ran 94.69 in the dark, the highest crude has traded all week, and gave some of it back before Chicago woke up. The volume doesn’t back it up, because the night did its business at 91.55, way under price, so the move up here is running on thin trade. Get through 93.83 and 94.69 comes first, then 95.53, last week’s low and the floor crude fell through to start this week. Lose 92.89, Wednesday’s high, and 92 is where it lands, Wednesday’s POC and September’s on the same number, with 91.55 the night’s print under it.

GC is 4294.20, right back on 4293, the low of last week and September both, after the night broke it, flushed to 4278.30 and bought the whole thing back. Breaking the month’s low and taking it back in one night is a failed breakdown only if it sticks, and gold hasn’t cleared 4301 yet, the floor of the value the night built up at 4323.50. It’s down from 4351.40 Wednesday morning and 4558.50 earlier this month, so I’m not going to pretend one reclaimed low turns that around. Take 4301 back and 4311.50 to 4314.50, Wednesday’s low and value floor, is the shelf it has to chew through before 4320 and 4323.50, the two prints. Lose 4278.30 and the map is blank all the way to 4079.20, August’s low.

The Calendar

Thursday, September 24 (all times CT):

- 7:30 Jobless claims, initial and continuing, with building permits for August

- 9:00 New home sales for August

- 9:30 Nat gas storage

- 10:00 Kansas City Fed manufacturing

- 12:00 7-year note auction

The Plan

ES:

ES has to get back over 7743 and 7750, where the night built its value before sellers took it lower, before there’s a long worth talking about. Over that, 7758.75 to 7763.25 is the real line, Wednesday’s low with August’s value floor on it, and acceptance back inside puts 7771.25, the POC Wednesday closed near, and 7779.25, the night’s high, in play. 7787.75 to 7789, September’s value high on Wednesday’s, is the ceiling after that. Under 7719.75, last week’s high, the night’s 7718.25 value floor and 7715, last week’s value high, are one shelf, then 7708.75 to 7711.50, where last week and September both did their business, already held once at 7707.25. Lose 7707.25 and it’s air to 7668.25 and 7661, where last week’s and September’s value start.

NQ:

NQ is sitting on 30440, the night’s print, and 30586.75 is the level that matters, August’s high, the one this week’s rally ran through and the night just gave back. A breakout level that gets handed back overnight is a failed breakout until it’s reclaimed, so I’m not trusting the bounce off 30370 on its own. Take it back and 30642.75 to 30657.25, Wednesday’s low and value floor, is the first shelf, with 30689.75, the top of overnight value, sitting right on it. Clear that stack and 30740, Wednesday’s POC, and 30783.50, its value high, are next, with 30813 the night’s high above them. Lose 30370, the night’s low and value floor on one tick, and 30221.75, August’s value high, is the next real volume, with 29938.25 and 29903.75, September’s and last week’s value highs, stacked under it.

CL:

Crude is trading between 92.89, Wednesday’s high, and 93.83, the top of overnight value, and it needs to get through the upper one before the week’s bounce off 89.47 means anything. Through it, 94.69 is the night’s high, and above that 95.53, last week’s low, is where crude fell through to start this week, so that’s where last week’s sellers are waiting. 96.70 to 96.83, September’s value high and last week’s value low, sit right above it. Lose 92.89 and 92.15 to 92.18 is Wednesday’s value high with its close on it, and 92, Wednesday’s POC and September’s on the same number, is the real floor. Under 92 it’s the night’s 91.55 print and 91.12, Wednesday’s value low.

GC:

Gold is at 4294.20, back on 4293, last week’s and September’s low, and still under 4301, the floor of overnight value. One night back over the month’s low doesn’t buy gold much credit after the week it’s had, so the long case starts at 4301 and not a tick lower. Take 4301 back and 4311.50 to 4314.50, Wednesday’s low and value floor, is the first shelf, then 4318.60 to 4320, Wednesday’s close and POC, with the night’s 4323.50 print right above them. Clear those and 4330.20, Wednesday’s value high, opens 4335 to 4337, last week’s POC with the night’s value high on it. Lose 4278.30, the night’s low, and the profile is empty to 4079.20, August’s low.

The White Van Stuff

The overnight took ES and NQ through the bottom of today’s expected range and pushed gold under its floor for the day, and all three bounced right off the line, which is either the book doing its job or the white van boys running everybody’s stops on schedule. Three of the four books put their pivot or heaviest strike on the exact price Wednesday did its business at, 7770 on ES, 30740 on NQ and 92 on crude, so the book and the profile finally agree on something. Gold is the outlier, with its pivot way up at 4350, at the top of Wednesday’s range.

ES:

ES is 7726.25, in the bottom third of a band that runs from 7708.50 to 7837, and the night stopped at 7707.25, the bottom of it almost to the tick. 7700 is the floor for the day and 7735 the nearest interest over price, with 7770, the heaviest strike, and 7790, today’s pivot, stacked on Wednesday’s POC and value high.

NQ:

NQ is under 30600, its floor for the day, so the book already got run over once, and the night’s 30370 low went through 30414.25, the bottom of the band. 30400 is the nearest interest under price and 30300 the put floor, with 30740, today’s pivot, sitting right on Wednesday’s POC.

CL:

Crude is 93.70, over the 93.50 interest and between 92.50, today’s pivot, and the 95 cap, with 95.76 the top of the band. 92 is the floor for the day and the heaviest strike on the same number, and it’s Wednesday’s POC too, so the book and the profile agree on where crude’s floor is.

GC:

Gold broke 4285, today’s put floor, overnight, got to 4278.30 and came back over it, and now sits at 4294.20 right under 4300. 4268.40 is the bottom of the band with 4275 and 4260 the heavy interest around it, and 4350, today’s pivot and heaviest strike, is way up at the top of Wednesday’s range.

See you at 8am CT

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES is 7822, sitting a quarter point under Tuesday’s 7822.25 low after the overnight auction reached 7818.75 and bounced. Tuesday rotated around 7832, but that print and the close are both overhead now, so yesterday’s balance has turned into today’s first reoffer zone. Take back 7826.75 and the climb through 7830 to 7832 can start repairing the break. Hold above that shelf and buyers get another shot at the stacked ceilings around 7839 and 7841.50. Lose 7818.75 and the next real volume does not show up until September’s 7771.50 ceiling.

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The Tape

ES is 7838.5, boxed between the double POC at 7835.75 and August’s 7841.50 print, which is an impressively stupid place to force a trade. Monday was a real trend-up day, running from 7758.25 to 7847.25 and closing at 7833.25 with value parked near the high. The overnight could only reach 7843.75, held a tight cage above 7830, and kept returning to 7835.75. Acceptance over 7841.50 gets another shot at 7843.75 and Monday’s 7847.25 high. Lose the shared print and 7833.25 to 7830 catches first, with the overnight low waiting at 7810.50.

NQ is 30772.25, sitting under the 30780 overnight print and Monday’s 30784.25 close after the night gave back a fresh high. Monday was a runaway trend-up session from 30216.50 to 30862.75, with the 30805 POC confirming buyers did business upstairs instead of poking and leaving. Globex cleared that high to 30916.50, then slid back inside value and under its own VWAP at 30815.48. Reclaim 30784.25 and the reoffer runs through 30805 toward 30862.75. Break 30752.75 and the overnight low is the first test, followed by August’s old high at 30586.75.

CL is 90.43, right on the 90.32 overnight print after trading both sides of Monday’s entire range. Monday sold from 93.76 to 91.19 and left its 92.37 POC near the close, which was ugly before Globex made it uglier. The night ripped to 93.84, puked to 89.16, and built its volume around 90.32. A bounce into 91.19 and 91.48 is where sellers get another chance, while 92.20 is the reclaim that makes the washout matter. Lose 89.17 and September’s value floor is next, then the chart gets very thin below 88.50.

GC is 4364.2, holding above Monday’s 4360.30 low and the 4349.50 overnight value floor after the night bought the whole disaster back. Monday was a trend-down session from 4407.80 to 4360.30, with value sliding lower and the 4388 POC abandoned by the close. Globex tried 4414.10 first, failed, then flushed to 4327.60 before crawling back near the middle of its value. Hold 4349.50 and reclaim 4373.70 to 4374.10, and the failed low has a case. Break the overnight value floor and 4335 is the only real shelf before another look at 4327.60.

The Calendar

Tuesday, September 22 (all times CT):

- 9:05 Fed’s Williams Speaks

- 9:20 Fed’s Governor Jefferson Speaks

- 12:00 2-Year Note Auction (Aug)

- 12:00 Fed’s Barkin speech

- 3:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (Sep 18)

The Plan

ES:

ES is 7838.5 under the 7840.75 trigger and pressed against August’s 7841.50 POC, so this little box gets watched until somebody wins it. If buyers build above that print, 7843.75 and Monday’s 7847.25 high come first, then 7886 where August’s value topped. Clear that and the next structural stop is the August high at 7906.25; fail here and the shared 7835.75 POC catches before Monday’s 7833.25 close. Acceptance below 7830 opens the overnight low at 7810.50, then Monday’s value floor at 7793.75. Under there, September’s 7768.75 ceiling sits on August’s 7763.25 floor, and the last shelf is the prior-week high at 7719.75.

NQ:

NQ is 30772.25 under the 30780 trigger and Monday’s 30784.25 close, right where a huge day can either rest or start giving itself back. Take the close and 30805 is the first magnet, followed by Monday’s 30862.75 high and the overnight ceiling at 30873.50. Hold above that ceiling and 30916.50 is the next test; lose 30752.75 instead and the overnight low at 30670 gets the vote. Below it, August’s 30586.75 high leads to Monday’s 30513.75 value floor, then the 30222 open. Break the 30216.50 Monday low and the next volume is way down at September’s 29938.25 ceiling beside the prior-week 29903.75 ceiling.

CL:

Crude is 90.43 right on the 90.32 overnight print, and that location says the giant round trip has solved absolutely nothing. Reclaim the 91.19 Monday low and 91.48 starts its value, with the overnight ceiling at 92.20 above it. Acceptance there brings the 92.37 POC back into play, then Monday’s 93.76 high and last week’s 95.53 low. Lose 89.17 and September’s floor at 88.50 is the trapdoor, with August’s 83.40 high below it. Under that, the staircase runs through 82.35 and the 78.23 print toward the August low at 69.48.

GC:

Gold is 4364.2, holding above the 4360.30 Monday low and over the 4349.50 overnight value floor. Stay above that floor and 4373.70 to 4374.10 is the first shelf, followed by August’s 4380.70 value low. Clear the 4383 overnight print and the 4388 POC is the magnet under Monday’s 4394 ceiling. That ceiling opens the road toward last week’s 4397.90 value high; fail back under 4349.50 and the prior-week 4335 POC catches first. Lose it and the overnight low at 4327.60 is the gate, with last week’s 4293 floor before the August low at 4079.20.

The White Van Stuff

The equity books are stacked closest to price after Monday’s rip, while crude’s map is upside down and gold has the widest room to wander. Nothing here fixes the lack of a read. It does tell us where the weird little white van might be parked when price arrives.

ES: ES is under today’s cap with heavy interest packed above it, while the pivot and put floor sit well below the overnight range. The nearest marks are 7860 overhead and 7830 underneath, so price is squeezed between the lid and the first floor.

NQ: NQ sits between nearby interest at 30750 and 30800, with today’s cap still above at 31000. The expected band leaves plenty of room both ways, but right now the book is pinning price near 30750.

CL: Crude is just over the 90 mark and miles below the 92.75 pivot, while the listed put floor is somehow sitting above price at 92.50. That is either useful tension or the white van getting lost again. The nearest honest bracket around price is 90 to 91.

GC: Gold is under today’s 4370 pivot and the 4375 mark. The 4350 level sits beneath it, with the expected low beside 4325. The book gets interesting only if this bounce can keep its head above 4350.

What will my next project be? You’ll find out soon.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES is 7764.00, wedged between August’s 7763.25 value floor and the overnight ceiling at 7770.25 after clearing everything Friday and last week built. Friday was a rotation day that closed right on its 7712.50 POC, then the overnight auction moved the entire conversation upstairs. Value followed the move and built around 7760, so this was more than one lonely poke above the old highs. Hold the August floor and buyers get another shot at the 7771.25 high, where the profile gets thin in a hurry. Fall back through 7760 and 7758.25, and the next clean structural catch is 7743.75.

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The Week That Was

The Fed raised its target range Wednesday to 3.75 to 4.00, the first increase since 2023, and 16 of 18 policymakers put at least one more on the board before December. Everything sold into it. ES printed 7575 Wednesday, NQ printed 29053, gold printed 4293. Then Thursday and Friday the whole board turned around at once as the long end backed away from 5 percent and crude fell apart, which took the inflation argument off the table for a couple of days. The Nasdaq was the only major index green on the week while the Dow lost better than a percent and a half. Friday was September expiration on top of the whole thing.

ES is 7712.50 with the week’s POC at 7708.75 and September’s at 7711.50 printed underneath it, three timeframes leaving their volume on one shelf. It traded 7575 Wednesday and went out Friday at the top of the week, so the hole filled in two sessions. What it has not done is take 7715, the ceiling its week built, and that number sits directly on top of the close.

NQ is 29916.25 and it closed above every piece of value its week made, over the 29903.75 ceiling with August’s 29903.25 POC printed on the same shelf. Wednesday it took 29053, where the week low and September’s landed together, and bought it. Started the week in the hole, finished it at the week high, the only one of the four that can say that.

CL is 96.19 and it is the one chart that finished below the value it built, with 96.83 the floor it lost and 97.44 the POC the week and September both landed on. It opened at 100.15, ran 102.69, and handed the whole move back the moment the Saudi repair headlines started landing. September’s value area on this thing runs from 88.23 all the way up to 102.68, which is not a market that has agreed on anything yet. It goes into tonight standing on the shelf Friday built, 96.24 the session POC with last week’s 95.99 right under it.

GC is 4425.30, back over the 4408 and 4405 pair where September and last week both left their POC, after spending Monday through Wednesday underneath the pair. The week put its volume way down at 4335 and printed 4293, September’s low to the tick, before Thursday and Friday took the whole range back. That ends two straight lower weeks on a session that closed at the high.

Cross-asset read: Three of the four closed on or above the volume their own week built and crude is the one sitting underneath it. NQ and GC both went to their September lows midweek and finished at their week highs, which is the same trade twice on two charts that usually argue with each other. Crude went the other direction and gave back the premium both of them were reacting to.

Positioning (September 15 data): The S&P crowd walked into the meeting net short better than 83,000 contracts, trimming both sides but cutting longs harder, leaning against this tape for another week. The Nasdaq crowd did the opposite and covered close to 14,000 shorts to sit net long into it. Every one of those numbers is Tuesday’s, which means none of it has the decision in it yet.

Vol: VIX closed 14.81, lower on the week. Rates went up for the first time since 2023 and protection got cheaper, which tells you exactly how seriously the option market is taking the second one.

The Calendar

Nine speakers in five days and no inflation print to argue with them. The information this week comes out of the auctions and out of Thursday.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. The coupon slate. Two-year Tuesday, five-year Wednesday, seven-year Thursday, the first real test of demand since the target range moved. The 10-year is 4.94 and a bad takedown puts 5 percent back on the screen, which reprices every chart in this brief off one number.

2. ES 7708.75 into 7715. The week’s POC with September’s 7711.50 and Friday’s 7712.50 stacked on it and 7715, the ceiling the week put on its value, right over the top of all three. Price closed inside that shelf. Everything above it is repair and everything under it is Wednesday again.

3. NQ 29903. Where the week topped its value with August’s POC printed alongside it, and Friday closed above the pair. It is the one chart that already has permission, which also means it is the one with the most to lose Monday morning.

4. Crude’s 97.44. September and the week left their POC on that same price and Friday finished under it. Take it back and the flush was a shakeout inside the range. Fail it and 95.53 is the only thing standing between price and the 91.64 shelf.

5. Thursday in Washington. The whole conversation is chips and export licensing, and the semiconductor book is sitting at the 95th percentile of its own year while small caps sit at the 9th and the banks at the 20th. One headline gets to move the exact index everybody is already crowded into.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES closed at 7712.50 standing on 7708.75, the week’s POC, with September’s 7711.50 and Friday’s own 7712.50 printed on top of it. Three timeframes putting their volume on one shelf is not a coincidence, that is where the market had its conversation about a rate hike and decided the answer was nothing. What it has not done is take 7715, the top of the week’s own value, with 7717.75 Friday’s ceiling and 7719.75 the week high right behind it. Clear that stack and 7742.50, where last week capped its value, is the first real work. Behind it is 7758.25 September’s ceiling with August’s 7763.25 floor printed on it, the pair that decides whether this month is a pullback or a lower high. Above those it reads 7785.50 last week’s high and 7834.25 September’s, with 7841.50 August’s POC where the summer put its actual volume. Lose 7708.75 and 7689.75 where Friday bottomed its value catches, then the 7668.25 and 7666.25 pair where its week floor landed on last week’s POC, and 7661 September’s value floor is the gate beneath the stack. Below 7653.50, where last week’s value floor and last week’s low print together, the chart goes quiet until 7610.50 August’s low and 7575 the week’s.

NQ:

NQ is the only one of the four that closed above everything its week built, going out 29916.25 over the 29903.75 ceiling with August’s 29903.25 POC sitting on the same shelf. What makes that shelf worth anything is Wednesday, when it printed 29053, where the week low and September’s landed together, and bought it. Above price the work is 29922.50 where last week’s value topped, then 29938.25 September’s with the 29937.75 week high riding it, and 29991 September’s high behind the pair. Take those and the map turns into August’s, 30221.75 the value ceiling and 30586.75 the high, with nothing structural in between. The argument against it is where the week actually did its business. September left its POC at 29739.25, last week left its at 29742.25, and the week and Friday both printed 29730. Four timeframes saying the real volume sits a long way under Friday’s close. Lose 29903 and that four POC shelf is the destination, then 29693.75 the floor Friday drew, 29555 August’s, and 29462.25 September’s. Under 29346.25, the floor the week drew, it is 29053 or nothing.

CL:

Crude closed 96.19, under 96.83, the bottom of the week’s value, and under the 97.44 POC the week and September both printed, and that pair is the whole plan. It opened 100.15, ran 102.69, and gave every bit of it back once the pipeline repair started showing up in headlines, so everything overhead is work crude has to earn a second time. The honest problem with any of it is that September’s value runs 88.23 to 102.68 on this contract, so being inside value here tells you almost nothing about what happens next. Reclaim 96.83 and 97.44 and 98.79 Friday’s ceiling comes next, then 98.99 last week’s and 99.42 Friday’s high, with 99.95 the ceiling the week built capping the whole repair. Past 99.95 there is nothing until 102.68, where September topped its value on the 102.69 high. Underneath, price is sitting on a shelf it built itself Friday. That is 96.24 the session POC with last week’s 95.99 and Friday’s 95.97 value floor stacked right under it, and 95.53 the week low is the gate beneath the pile. Lose 95.53 and the profile is empty down to 91.64 where last week’s value bottomed, then 88.23 September’s floor and 87.76 the low last week made.

GC:

Gold went out 4425.30, back over the 4408 and 4405 pair where September and last week both left their POC, and that pair is the line this whole read hangs on. It spent Monday through Wednesday below both and printed 4293, September’s low to the tick, before Thursday and Friday took the entire week back. Hold 4408 and the next job is 4427.60, the high Friday and the week share, then 4442.70 August’s POC, the shelf that decides whether two lower weeks were the pullback or the start of something. Over that it reads 4447.70 last week’s ceiling, 4468.30 September’s, 4479 last week’s high, and 4558.50 the high September made. What I do not have is a single session of real business up here, because the week printed its volume down at 4335 and price closed nowhere near it. Lose 4408 and 4397.90 the ceiling the week drew catches, then 4392.50 Friday’s POC. Under those is the 4385.90 and 4385.80 pair where Friday’s value bottom and last week’s landed on one number, with 4380.70 August’s floor and 4376.50 September’s beneath it.

The White Van Stuff

The September book cleared out Friday and what rebuilt underneath it leans the wrong way for anybody hoping the quiet holds. The S&P’s Friday expiration carries better than two puts for every call and the tech book runs closer to two and a half, both of them shaped to push a move along instead of soak it up. Underneath that the weight is stacked in one place: the semiconductor book sits at the 95th percentile of its own year with the megacap names right behind it, while small caps sit at the 9th and the banks at the 20th.

ES: The magnet and the put floor are the same number on ES, 7700, and price closed just over the pair. Everything the book owns above is the 7750 through 7800 ladder into the 7900 cap, and under 7700 there is 7675 and then a walk down to 7625. The week band runs 7591.25 to 7833.75.

NQ: NQ closed on the single highest line its book has underneath it, 29900, with everything else it owns stacked overhead from 30000 up through 30500 and the cap out at 31000. Below that one line the next thing carrying weight is the 29490 magnet. The band runs 29249.50 to 30583.

CL: Crude’s book is upside down against the tape, with the 100 cap the only real line overhead and the entire ladder from 93.50 down through 90 sitting under price. It closed on the 96 line, the second heaviest number in the book, and the magnet is down at 92.25.

GC: Gold’s heaviest line is 4450 and it sits right above Friday’s close, with 4435 printed under it and the two of them wrapping the settle. Under price the book steps 4415, the 4390 magnet, then 4375 and 4365. The 4725 cap has not been relevant since August.

I will not get bear amnesia this week. I will not get bear amnesia this week.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES sits at 7722.25, inside the overnight value area of 7713.75 to 7738.00, just above Thursday’s VAH. The night opened low and ran high to 7739.25 before settling into that cage, while Thursday sold off from 7713.50 to a 7680.50 low before closing back up at 7707.25. Price is currently testing the upper half of the overnight range, with the 7734.25 POC acting as the immediate magnet overhead. Below, the 7713.75 floor holds the line against Thursday’s close. If it loses 7713.75, the path opens to 7708.75, then 7694.25.

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The Tape

ES is back in the 7680s with the night’s volume built at 7686, right on top of 7680, the POC Wednesday gave up on the way to a close under its value. Wednesday printed a 7575 low and closed down near it, and the night dipped to 7617.50 and bought all of that back, so that’s a failed breakdown, and building value up here instead of down by the lows says the buyers aren’t only covering. What it hasn’t done is print over 7690.75, and 7698 to 7699, Wednesday’s value high and high, is Wednesday’s ceiling. Take 7699 and hold it and 7719.75, this week’s high, opens 7742.50, last week’s value high. Lose 7680 and 7662.50, the overnight value low, catches with 7659, September’s value low, under it, and under 7623.25 it’s air to 7575.

NQ is up in the 29500s, the only one of the four trading over Wednesday’s whole range after the night ran through the 29549.75 high and this week’s 29604.50 to print 29614. The night still did its business back down at 29450, next to Wednesday’s 29460 POC and September’s 29449.25. Three POCs stacked together is where this market actually traded, and a push that hasn’t built anything up here is a push until value follows it. Take 29614 back and 29668, the bottom of last week’s value, is the gate with 29742.25, last week’s POC, behind it. Lose 29546.25, Wednesday’s value high, and 29524.75 goes quick, then the 29449.25 to 29460 stack is the real test.

CL is the one that didn’t get bought, still down in the bottom of a night that sold from 102.47 and took out Wednesday’s 100.97 low and this week’s 100.79. The night built its volume right down here, a 100.65 POC with value from 100.38 to 101.61, so the sellers are doing business at the lows instead of running stops and leaving. Under it is the 100 handle with last week’s 100.05 POC sitting on it, the one shelf this whole move hasn’t tested yet. Take 100.97 back and 101.26, Wednesday’s value low, is the gate, then 101.50, where this week and September left the same POC. Lose 100.33 and 100.05 catches, and under 100 the map is thin to 95.70, last week’s value low.

GC is chopping on 4363 to 4365, the overnight value high and Wednesday’s 4364.50 low, after flushing to 4294.50 right on top of 4293, September’s low, and running back to 4379.70. Buyers showing up on the month’s low is a real failed breakdown, but the night built its volume at 4325, way under here, so this bounce is running ahead of any value behind it. Overhead, 4375.40 to 4388.20 stacks September’s, August’s, Wednesday’s and last week’s value lows under Wednesday’s close, and the 4379.70 overnight high already stalled in the middle of that. Take 4388.20 back and 4398.70, Wednesday’s value high, opens 4405, where last week did its business, right on Wednesday’s high. Lose 4363.70 and 4333, last week’s low, catches with 4325, the night’s POC, right under it.

The Calendar

Thursday, September 17 (all times CT):

- 7:30 Jobless claims, plus Philly Fed manufacturing and the whole survey stack that rides with it

- 7:30 Housing starts and building permits for August

- 9:00 Pending home sales and the leading index for August

- 9:30 Nat gas storage

- 10:30 4-week and 8-week bill auctions

- 12:00 10-year TIPS auction

- 3:30 The Fed’s balance sheet

The 7:30 stack is the only one with teeth for all four.

The Plan

ES:

Price is sitting on 7686, the overnight POC, so this is a jump ball until something moves off it. I want to see 7690.75 taken and held before longs make any sense, because 7698 to 7699, Wednesday’s value high and high, is the first thing a push runs into. Take that shelf and 7719.75, this week’s high, opens 7742.50, last week’s VAH, with 7746.75, September’s POC, right behind it. Under 7680, Wednesday’s POC, the read is short and 7662.50, the bottom of the night’s value, catches first, then 7659, September’s value low, on 7653.50, last week’s. Under that pair it’s 7623.25, Wednesday’s value low, and then the profile is empty to 7575.

NQ:

Everything on NQ runs through 29546.25, Wednesday’s value high, because holding over Wednesday’s whole range is the only thing that makes this more than a stop run. Over it, 29614, the overnight high, is the gate, and 29668, last week’s VAL, has 29742.25, where last week built its volume, behind it. The honest problem is volume, the night did its business at 29450 and nothing has built up here yet. Lose 29546.25 and 29524.75, the overnight value high, goes quick, then 29449.25 to 29460 is three POCs stacked together and the real test. Under that stack 29386.75, Wednesday’s open, sits on 29338, the overnight value low, and the map thins out to 29270, Wednesday’s value low.

CL:

Crude is working around 100.65, the POC the night built, and that’s the trigger. The read stays short while it’s under 100.97, Wednesday’s low, because the night sold through that low and built its value down here instead of bouncing off it. Take 100.97 back and 101.26, Wednesday’s value low, is the gate, then 101.50, this week’s and September’s POC on the same print. Clear 101.61, the top of the night’s value, and 102.43 to 102.47, Wednesday’s POC and the overnight high, is the ceiling. Lose 100.33 and 100.05, last week’s POC, is the last thing on the 100 handle, and under 100 the map is thin to 95.70, last week’s VAL.

GC:

The trigger is 4363.70, the overnight VAH, and gold is chopping right on it with Wednesday’s 4364.50 low sitting on top. Holding over that pair keeps the bounce off September’s low alive, but 4375.40 to 4388.20 is four value lows and Wednesday’s close stacked on each other, and the 4379.70 overnight high already stalled in there. Take 4388.20 back and 4398.70, Wednesday’s value high, is next, then 4405, where last week’s POC sits on Wednesday’s high. Lose 4363.70 and 4333, last week’s low, is the first shelf with 4325, the night’s POC, right under it. Under 4293, this week’s and September’s low, the map is blank to 4079.20, August’s low.

The White Van Stuff

The overnight ran ES and NQ right up into the top of what the options priced for today, ES on 7689 and NQ under 29620.25, so the room the book gave the upside is mostly spent before the bell. Crude is already over its band and gold is pinned on the upper edge of its, so all four are trading at the edge of the book instead of the middle of it.

ES: ES is stuck under 7689 to 7690, the top of today’s band with today’s pivot on the same spot, and 7700, the magnet, is right behind them. The nearest floor is 7675, and the band runs down to 7555 with 7600 and 7575 stacked as interest on the way.

NQ: NQ ran through 29500, the cap, overnight and is sitting under 29600, today’s cap, with the top of the band at 29620.25 right over it. Today’s pivot is back at 29460 with 29410, the magnet, under it, so everything the book has is below price.

CL: Crude is already over 100.53, today’s expected high, with 100, today’s cap, and 99.75, today’s pivot, right under it. Above price there’s nothing until 102.50 and 103, and the band runs down to 94.07.

GC: Gold is sitting on 4365.40, today’s expected high, with 4365 on the same number. Today’s pivot at 4400 and the 4390 magnet both sit above where the band ends, and the nearest floor is 4325.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick