The Tape

ES ran up to 7610 early Monday and leaked the whole thing back, closing 7563 on a 7563.5 POC with value stacked 7553.75 to 7593, a session that gave away its highs. The overnight drifted a tight 7544 to 7575 and sits 7555 now, back under Monday’s POC and pinned to 7547, the shelf June built its volume on. Reclaim 7563.5 the POC and 7575 the overnight high and 7588.5 last week’s POC opens, then 7593 Monday’s upper value. Lose 7544 the overnight low and 7546 the developing value floor, and 7532 is the gate, where last week and July both bottomed their value. It sits 7555, on the June line.

NQ was the ugly one Monday, tagging 29752 and getting sold all day to close 29466 near the low on a 29500 POC. The overnight bought it back, running from 29490 up to 29670 and sitting 29630, pressed right on 29663.75, Monday’s value ceiling. Through that and 29670 the overnight top, 29700 June’s POC is the first real test, then 29752 Monday’s high with 29900 July’s POC above. Lose 29600 the developing POC and 29500 the Monday POC gives, then 29469 the value low and 29393 Monday’s low. It sits 29630, nose against the top of yesterday’s range.

CL went vertical Monday, running from 73.43 to 78.46 and closing 77.66, a trend day that left its 74.7 POC far behind. The overnight kept pushing, gapping to 79.78 and tagging 81.27 before settling to sit 79.76 on top of the whole range, today’s volume building at 80.3 over a 79.55 shelf. Above 80.3 and 81.27 the overnight peak it is thin air, nothing built overhead until June’s spike zone. Below 78.83 the overnight base, 78.46 Monday’s high flips to support, then 77.56 the value high and 74.7 the Monday POC underneath. It sits 79.76, the highest crude has printed in weeks.

GC pushed to 4075.5 Monday and got sold all day, closing 4009.3 near the low on a 4015 POC. The overnight steadied it, holding 4020 to 4040 and sitting 4036.9 back at Monday’s 4033 value, and this is the chart the safe-haven bid is supposed to lift and instead keeps getting sold, a full shelf under last week’s 4111. Through 4039.5 the value high and 4040 the overnight top opens 4066 July’s floor, then 4075.5 Monday’s high. Below 4020 the overnight base, 4015 Monday’s POC gives, then 3996 and 3993 the value base and session low, with air to 3975 June’s low under it. It sits 4036.9, back at Monday’s upper value.

The Calendar

Tuesday, July 14 (all times CT):

- 7:30 CPI, the print the whole tape is frozen for

- 9:00 Fed Chair Warsh testifies on the Hill

- 11:40 Fed’s Barr, then Goolsbee at 12:00, Cook at 12:30, Bowman at 1:55

- 3:30 API crude inventories after the close

CPI at 7:30 and a brand-new Fed Chair on the mic at 9:00 back to back are the whole morning. Everything before the open is just positioning for those two.

The Plan

ES:

ES is pinned to the June shelf at 7547, the price the whole prior month built its volume on, with 7555 the developing session sitting on top of it. Above 7558 today’s POC the first job is 7563.5 Monday’s POC and close, then 7575 the overnight top. Reclaim those and 7588.5 last week’s POC opens, then 7593 Monday’s value high and 7604 last week’s value ceiling, with 7610 Monday’s high the extension. Below 7546 the developing value base and 7544 the overnight low, the tape gives to 7532, where last week and July stack their lows. Lose that and there is air to 7469 last week’s low, then 7451 June’s floor.

NQ:

NQ has repair to do after Monday’s flush, sitting 29630 with the overnight bounce pressing 29663.75, Monday’s value ceiling. Above 29670 the overnight high, 29700 June’s POC is the first real test, then 29752 Monday’s high, with 29900 July’s POC the level that says the flush is done. Hold above 29600 today’s POC and the bounce keeps its base. Below it, 29500 Monday’s POC gives, then 29469 Monday’s value floor and 29393 Monday’s low. Under the low there is 29369 the July shelf, then 29350 where last week and the month built their heaviest volume.

CL:

Crude is the only chart moving and the game is whether it holds the breakout. 79.55 the developing value base over 78.83 the overnight base is the shelf, and above it the run stays alive with 80.3 today’s POC and 81.27 the overnight peak the first targets. Through that peak there is open air, nothing built overhead until June’s spike zone. Below 78.83 and 78.46 Monday’s high, the gap starts to fill toward 77.56 Monday’s value top, then 74.7 Monday’s POC where the volume actually sits. Under that it is 73.44 Monday’s value low, then 72, where last week and July both parked their volume.

GC:

Gold has to prove Monday’s fade was an overreaction. 4033 Monday’s value ceiling is the shelf it is testing this morning, and clearing 4040 the overnight high puts 4066 July’s floor back in reach, then 4075.5 Monday’s high. Above there, 4097 last week’s floor is the proof the down move got repaired. Below 4024 today’s POC and 4020 the overnight low, 4015 Monday’s POC gives, then 3996 Monday’s value base and 3993 the session low. Under the low there is air to 3975 June’s low.

The White Van Stuff

This is a headline tape, not a yields-and-dollar tape, and the positioning is chasing crude while it runs away from everything else. Oil cleared its entire options structure overnight, so its whole cage now sits underneath spot as support, while the equity books stayed tight and quiet into the print. Gold’s protection is stacked above a market that keeps sinking away from it, the one book on the screen pricing fear that price refuses to pay for.

ES: The equity band is tight, priced for a quiet session if the number lets it be one. Price sits under the 7630 same-day cap with the bulk of the interest stacked overhead into the 7700 structural cap, and the 7550 magnet is the shelf right under it. The put floor for the day is 7540 with the expected low at 7496.

NQ: NQ carries the wider book, priced for more than three times the broad index’s move. Price sits between the 29540 magnet under it and the 30000 same-day cap overhead, with a thin ceiling until that round number. The downside interest builds from 29300 down to the 29000 put floor, the expected day running 28986 to 29965.

CL: Crude’s book is the loudest on the board and price already blew through the top of it. The old 78 cap flipped to support underneath, and the whole structure from there down to 72 now sits below spot, so that shelf is the floor. Overhead there is almost nothing until the 81 same-day cap, then the 82 expected high and air to 83.5.

GC: Gold’s structure is stacked above a market falling away from it, and price just nudged over its 4025 same-day cap. The 4066 expected high and the 4095 magnet sit overhead into a wall of interest from 4100 up, and the 4020 pivot is the line the fade keeps pressing. Under it the real interest thins to the 4000 floor, then 3950 and the 3945 expected low.

Trust your prep. See you at the top.

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The Tape

ES put in a trend-up session Friday and closed on the highs, value stacked up top with the point of control at 7623 and the value low at 7596. The overnight faded that strength on the chip selloff, opening at 7607 and grinding down to 7587 where it sits now, right on the shelf where last week and the whole month built the most volume near 7588. Above 7594 and 7596 puts overnight value back on the table toward Friday’s close at 7620. Below 7588 and the next real volume doesn’t show up until 7552 Friday’s low, then 7547 where June did its business. It sits 7590, pinned to the line the month built.

NQ is the one that got hit. Friday closed strong near 30037 with value between 29898 and the 30050 point of control, and the overnight erased all of it on the chip flush, dragging price to 29727 before it steadied. It sits 29765 now, coiling just above that overnight low and well below Friday’s value. Reclaiming 29815 puts it back inside the range it lost with 29900 the July peak the bigger test above. Below 29727 opens 29700 where June built, then 29674 Friday’s low, then air toward 29492.

CL is the mirror image, gapping up hard overnight while everything else bled, clearing Friday’s entire range and parking at 74.15. Friday was a base down around the 71.25 volume shelf, and the overnight tore through 73 and topped at 74.65 before settling into a tight hold above 73.61. As long as it stays above 73.14, Friday’s high that flipped to support, the breakout stays intact with 74.65 and then open air up to 76.08 last week’s high. A slip back under 73.14 fills the gap and puts 72 back in the conversation where last week and the month agree. It sits 74.15, holding the highest prices in weeks.

GC is the odd one out, fading while oil rips on the same headlines that usually put a bid under it. Friday held value up near 4111 and closed at 4116, but the overnight sold it through Friday’s low to 4069 and it sits 4077 now, underneath everything Friday built. Reclaiming 4080 and 4082 gets it back toward the 4090s and last week’s floor at 4097. Losing 4075 and the 4069 overnight low opens air down to 4042 where June found value, then 4032 last week’s low. It sits 4077, below Friday’s entire range.

The Calendar

Light day on the data front. No top-tier prints, so the overnight headlines carry the tape. Two Fed speakers are on the docket, Bowman in the early morning and Waller around 11:30 CT, and either can nudge rates and equities if they say something new. The Treasury budget statement lands at 1:00 PM CT and rarely moves anything. The real override today is the overnight headline tape, not the calendar.

The Plan

ES:

The whole month built its volume at 7588 and that is the line again this morning, last week’s point of control and July’s sitting right on top of where value bottomed overnight. Above 7594, ES gets back 7596 Friday’s value low and 7602 the overnight value high, and reclaiming those opens 7615 the overnight high and 7620 Friday’s close. Through there, 7623 Friday’s volume peak and 7627 Friday’s high are the targets, with 7647 June’s value high the extension. Below 7588 fails and 7587 the overnight low is the first crack. Losing that and 7552 Friday’s low is the gate, then 7547 where June did its business, then 7531 last week’s value low and 7520 July’s value low underneath.

NQ:

NQ has the most repair to do. The line to reclaim is 29815, where value bottomed overnight, and getting back above it puts price inside the range it lost, with 29890 the overnight volume peak and 29898 Friday’s value low stacked just above. Clearing 29900 the July peak is the real tell the flush is done, and through it 30034 the overnight value high, 30037 Friday’s close, and 30050 Friday’s volume peak come back into play. Below, 29727 the overnight low is the shelf, and losing it opens 29700 where June built and 29674 Friday’s low. Under Friday’s low there is air down to 29492 July’s value low, then 29350 last week’s heaviest volume where the real trade sits.

CL:

Crude cleared its whole prior range overnight and the game now is whether it holds the gap. 73.61, the base of the overnight range, is the line, and above it the breakout stays alive with 74.37 the overnight high of value and 74.65 the overnight high the first targets. Through the overnight high there is open air up to 76.08 last week’s high and then 78.81 June’s value high, the levels that come into range if the bid keeps building. Below 73.61 and 73.18 the overnight low, price falls back to 73.14 Friday’s high, the last line before the gap fully fills. Under it, 72 is where last week and the month both built the most volume, then 71.57 Friday’s close and 70 where June did its business.

GC:

Gold has to prove the overnight fade was an overreaction. 4080, the overnight volume peak, is the first reclaim, and above it 4082 July’s value low and Friday’s low, then 4090 the overnight value high and 4097 last week’s floor come back into reach. Getting back to 4103 Friday’s value low and 4111 where July and Friday both peaked would mean the whole down move got repaired. Below, 4075 the overnight base and 4069 the overnight low are the gate, and losing them opens air. That air runs to 4042 where June found value, then 4032 last week’s low and 4026 July’s low underneath.

The White Van Stuff

This isn’t a yields or dollar story, it is a headline story, and the positioning is scrambling to catch up to price. Crude ran clean above its entire options structure overnight so the whole cage now sits underneath spot as support. Equities carry heavier downside interest on the tech side than the broad index, and gold’s protective structure is stacked above a market that keeps sinking away from it.

ES: The equity band is tight, calling for a quiet day if the headlines let it be one. Price is pinned just under the 7600 same-day cap with the bulk of the interest stacked overhead from 7630 up to the 7700 structural cap. The support shelf underneath is thin until 7545 where the bigger magnet sits.

NQ: NQ is where the fear is priced, the band four times wider than the broad index. Price is sitting right on the 29770 magnet that has been pulling it all night, with the same-day cap way up at 30500 and a thick wall of interest from 30000 to 30300 capping any bounce. The downside interest builds from 29500 down to the 29000 floor.

CL: Crude’s band is the loudest on the board and price already blew through the top of it. The entire options cage now sits below spot, from the 73.37 line it cleared down through 72, so that whole shelf flips to support. Overhead there is almost nothing until 75 and the 76 structural cap.

GC: Gold’s structure is stacked above a market that keeps falling away from it. The 4085 magnet and the 4090 same-day cap sit just overhead with a wall of interest from 4150 up, and the expected low near 4051 is the line the fade is pressing toward. Under 4051 the only real interest left is the 4000 floor.

Something new is coming from me and the boys. Stay tuned.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

The ceasefire died Tuesday night, three tankers got hit, and the president confirmed it from a podium, and that one headline wrote every chart’s week. Crude put an entire war premium back on in a single overnight and spent the rest of the week handing it back. The indexes flushed hard Wednesday morning and then did the thing nobody was positioned for: bought all of it back, ES finishing on its weekly high and NQ over the round number. Gold got sold into a shooting week because expensive barrels feed the same rate math that has been squatting on this tape all summer, and with the ten-year camped near 4.6 the metal could not keep a bid. The chip tape got sold out of Asia early, ended the week carrying the index anyway, and the biggest foreign listing ever hit the Nasdaq Friday to a bid. One headline, four charts, and only one of them is still trading it.

ES opened the week at 7565 and closed 7621, higher on the week and out the top after touring the whole map in between: through 7594 Monday, back under it Tuesday, flushed to 7469 Wednesday, back through it Friday. The week’s volume settled at 7588, right under the line it kept fighting over.

NQ went 29836 to 30037 on the week, its first Friday close above 30000, by way of a 29034 flush that broke everything first. The volume never followed the recovery up; the week built its base at 29350 and left it behind.

CL opened 68.28 pinned to the floor it spent two weeks dying on, ran to 76.08 by Wednesday, and closed 71.57 after three straight sessions of selling, to the tick on 71.60, the top of the old range. The streak of lower weeks is over; what replaced it is a spike nobody trusted past lunch.

GC opened 4168 and closed 4117, lower on the week, rejected at 4192 for the second week in a row. It flushed to 4032 midweek, clawed back to the 4111 week POC by Friday, and that double lid overhead now runs the chart.

Cross-asset read: The headline that was supposed to sink equities got them a Friday close at the top of the range, and the only chart still trading the conflict is crude, which cannot hold its own rallies for more than a session. Gold falling on a week like this with yields up tells you what the market is actually afraid of: the rate math, not the missiles.

Positioning (July 7 data): The trader crowd is still net short both the S&P and the Nasdaq, third report running, and it spent another week as bounce fuel while the tape ground higher. The barrel crowd flipped back to the long side right as the shooting started, the right side for about one session before the spike got sold. Gold’s long crowd never left and is still loaded, which cuts both ways at a two-week lid.

Vol: The VIX sat at 16 through all of it, so protection on the index side still costs next to nothing. Crude’s book never got the memo, and gold’s is jumpier than the metal’s chart looks.

The Calendar

EARNINGS SEASON IS SO FUCKING BACK.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Tuesday morning, all of it. The June print at 7:30 CT, five banks before the bell, the chair testifying at 9:00. The rate path, earnings season, and the whole recovery reprice in one session.

2. NQ 30000. First close above it in five tries, with the volume base left behind at 29350. Acceptance opens 30250, the price last week anchored on; another rejection and 29700, the summer shelf, is back in play.

3. ES 7594, round three. Monday’s breakout failed, Friday’s gets the retest. If it holds there is only 7647 and 7694 left overhead from this year’s structure.

4. Crude at 71.60. The spike round-tripped to the exact top of the old range. Above it the new range builds from the 72 shelf; below it the rest of the premium unwinds toward 70.

5. Gold’s cage. Two weeks, two rejections at 4192, while the floor stack holds underneath: the floor of this week’s value at 4097 with the options crowd’s magnet sitting on the same shelf at 4095.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

The whole week distilled to one line: 7594, last week’s high with July’s value ceiling built on the same price. ES broke it Monday, lost it Tuesday, flushed to 7469 Wednesday, and took it back Friday with value following, closing 7621 with the week’s volume parked at 7588 right under the line. Hold 7594 and the breakout is working: 7627 the week high first, then 7647 June’s value ceiling, and past that 7694, the June high, the only structure left overhead. Lose 7594 and the fight resumes: 7588 the week POC goes first, 7556 last week’s POC under it, then 7532, where the week’s value bottoms, the gate that says the breakout failed twice. Below that it is 7497, last week’s floor of value, and 7469 the flush low, then 7451 June’s value floor with air underneath to 7307, the June low.

NQ:

NQ finally closed over 30000 at 30037, first time in five sessions of knocking, but the week’s volume never followed it up: the base built at 29350 during the flush and price left it behind. Acceptance above 30000 targets 30094 the week high, then 30250, last week’s POC and the first price overhead with a real argument in it, then 30356 the July high and 30438 last week’s value ceiling. Through 30600, where last week topped, there is nothing but air to 31100, the June record. If 30000 fails again, 29900 the July POC catches first, then 29700 June’s POC, the shelf the sellers camped on all summer. Under that it is 29620 where last week’s value bottomed, 29350 the week’s volume base, and 29034 the double bottom, with 28506 under everything.

CL:

Crude did the whole war trade in one week: glued to 68 Monday, gapped through everything to 76.08 by Wednesday, then sold for three straight sessions to close 71.57, sitting to the tick on 71.60, last week’s high. That line is the edge between the new picture and the old one. Hold above 71.60 and the range builds: 72.00 the week POC is the first fight, 73.56 the week’s value ceiling next, and 76.08 the spike high is the cap until a fresh headline says otherwise, with 78.81 June’s value ceiling past it. Lose 71.60 and the unwind is on: 70.14 last week’s value ceiling, then 70.00 where June parked its volume on the round number. Under 70 it is 68.30 last week’s POC and 68.06 where this week bottomed, then 67.43 with nothing under it until 65.

GC:

Gold’s week was a rejection at 4192, the same price that capped it last week, and that double lid now runs the chart. It flushed to 4032 midweek when the rate math took over, then spent Thursday and Friday climbing back to close 4117 on the 4111 week POC. Reclaim 4125, the top of last week’s value, and the lid gets its third test: 4163 July’s value ceiling, 4182 the week’s, then 4192 itself, with thin trade above it all the way to 4365, the June POC. Lose 4097, the bottom of the week’s value, and 4082, July’s floor, is the gate. Under that the stack at 4042, June’s value floor sitting on last week’s POC, is the real decision, then 4022 and 3976.

The White Van Stuff

ES has a book that chased the breakout: the heavy interest that sat below price all month is now stacked overhead from 7625 to 7690, with the cap at 7700 right behind it. The magnet got left at 7545 and the put floor is all the way down at 7500. It closed 7621, trading into the stack.

NQ has the biggest single line in its book at 30000, and Friday was the first close on top of it. Above, the interest clusters 30100 to 30300 and then thins out fast to the 31000 cap; below, the magnet waits at 29770 and the put floor at 29000. It closed 30037, a hair over the line.

CL never calmed down and still owns the loudest book on the board, the densest interest packed 71 to 73 right where price sits. The cap at 76 is where the spike died, and the floor is 70. It closed 71.57, under the 72.25 magnet.

GC carries the heaviest put lean of the four books, and the floor side is a staircase: the 4095 magnet, then interest every few dollars down to the 4000 put floor. Overhead the band from 4165 to 4195 sits under the 4300 cap. It closed 4117, leaning on the 4115 shelf.

Enjoy your weekend. See you Tonight for SundayTicks Live on everything 8pm CT.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Tape

ES put in a repair day Wednesday, opening 7507, flushing to 7469 early, then grinding back all session to close 7526.75 right on its 7527 POC. The overnight held every bit of that, built value 7530 to 7553 around a 7552 POC and ran to 7558 before settling to sit 7546. That puts it back above yesterday’s value and pressed under the 7552 to 7567 band, the overnight POC stacked on last week’s and this week’s volume line. Reclaim that band and 7594, the wall it lost Tuesday, comes back into range. Lose 7527 and the shelf gives to 7500 yesterday’s floor, then 7497 last week’s floor, then 7469 the low that has held twice.

NQ was the engine Wednesday, opening 29202, knifing to 29034, then running the whole session to close 29457 on a 29400 POC, a full V off the lows. The overnight extended it, tagging 29735 and parking value up around a 29620 POC, and it sits 29699 pressed against 29700, where June built its entire floor. Above 29735 the overnight high there is air to 30029 July’s value high, with 30250 last week’s POC and 30356 July’s high stacked past it. Below, 29620 the overnight POC sits on 29619 last week’s value floor, then 29495 the overnight base and 29350 the week’s volume line. Under 29350 it is 29265 June’s value low, then the 29034 double-bottom under everything.

CL spiked to 76.08 Wednesday on the overnight headline and gave the whole thing back to close 74.07, right on its 74 POC, a blowoff and a fade in one session. The overnight did it again in miniature, popping to 75.13, flushing to 72.37, and clawing back to sit 73.95 on the same 74 line. That keeps it pinned to the price everything is deciding at, with 74.60 the overnight ceiling and 75.13 guarding 76.08 the high above. Hold the 73 shelf and the new range builds 73 to 76. Lose 72.37 the overnight low and there is nothing built until 70.47 the week POC and 70, where June parked its volume on the round number.

GC bounced Wednesday, dipping to 4032 and recovering to close 4090, but it stayed capped under 4101 all day. The overnight is where it woke up, ripping from 4073 clean through that lid to 4127 and building value up at a 4115 POC, the safe-haven bid I said had no pulse showing up a day late. It sits 4122, back above its whole recent range and pressing 4125 last week’s value high and 4127 the overnight top. Clear those and 4157 this week’s volume line opens, then 4162 July’s value ceiling and 4192, the double-print high that has capped every push. Lose 4083 yesterday’s POC and the reclaim is a fake, back to 4063 the overnight low and 4041 last week’s POC underneath.

The Calendar

Thursday, July 9 (all times CT):

- 7:30 Initial jobless claims

- 8:00 Fed’s Williams speaks

- 9:00 Existing home sales for June

- 9:30 EIA natural gas storage

- 12:00 30-year bond auction

- 12:30 Fed’s Logan speaks

The Plan

ES:

ES is coiled 7546 under the 7552 to 7567 band, the overnight volume line sitting on last week’s and this week’s POC in one spot. Accept above 7552 and the repair runs 7567 the week POC, 7578 last week’s ceiling, then 7582 July’s value high into 7594, the wall it lost Tuesday, with 7600 and 7602 the week high on top of it. Hold 7530 the overnight value floor and the bounce keeps its base. Lose it and 7527 yesterday’s POC goes, then 7512 July’s value low and 7500 yesterday’s floor, with 7497 last week’s floor the gate. Under 7497 it is air to 7469 the low that held twice, then 7451 June’s value floor.

NQ:

NQ is pressed 29699 into 29700, the June POC and the roof on this two-day bounce. Through 29735 the overnight top there is nothing but air to 30029 July’s value high, then 30250 last week’s POC and 30356 July’s high above that. Hold 29620 the overnight POC, sitting right on 29619 last week’s value floor, and the bounce stays intact. Lose it and 29495 the overnight base gives, then 29350 the week POC is the magnet. Under 29350 it is 29265 June’s value low, then 29034 the double-bottom where the whole move started.

CL:

Crude is digesting the spike right on 74, the yesterday and overnight POC in the same spot. Accept above 74.60 the overnight ceiling and the push runs 75.13 the overnight peak, then 75.29 yesterday’s value high and 76.08 the high, with 78.81 June’s value ceiling the only real structure above that. Hold the 73 shelf, 73.40 yesterday’s value floor over 73.24 the overnight base, and the range holds. Lose 72.37 the overnight low and it is air down to 70.47 the week POC. Then 70, June’s POC on the round number, with 68.56 June’s value low under it.

GC:

Gold took its whole range back overnight and sits 4122, pressed on 4125 last week’s value high and 4127 last night’s high. Clear that pair and 4157 this week’s volume line opens, then 4162 July’s value ceiling and 4192, the double-print high that has been the lid on every rally for two weeks. Hold 4115 the overnight volume line and the reclaim has a base. Lose 4083 yesterday’s POC and the overnight rip was a trap, back to 4063 the overnight low and 4055 yesterday’s value floor. Under that it is 4041 last week’s POC on 4032 the low, the bottom of the whole range.

The White Van Stuff

The books split hard overnight. Equity protection stays cheap even with headlines crossing the wire, the S&P band under a percent while the Nasdaq runs half again as wide with price right under its ceiling. Gold is the mirror of Tuesday: it cleared its ceiling and tagged the top of its expected day, the only chart on the board trading over the line instead of under it.

ES opens just below its whole same-day stack, the 7550 to 7575 shelf of interest overhead with the cap on top of it. The 7525 pivot and the 7500 put floor are the lines underneath, and the expected day runs a tight 7470 to 7587. It sits 7546, pressed under the book.

NQ carries the loud book and it is sitting right on the fight: the cap at 29700 is the exact line price is pressing, the same number as the ceiling on the standard map. The 29460 pivot and the 29000 put floor sit well below, the expected day near a percent and a half wide. It sits 29699, nose against the line.

CL owns the loudest book and the most two-sided one after the round trip. The 75 and 76 caps stack the ceiling, the 72 same-day floor and 70 put floor anchor the bottom, and the expected day is wide at 71 to 76. It sits 73.95, mid-band between a cleared spike and the 75 line.

GC is the standout, the only book trading over its ceiling after clearing 4113 overnight and running to the 4131 expected high. The 4083 pivot and the 4064 floor are under price now, flipped from resistance to support. It sits 4122, stretched to the top of its band.

Protect yourself at all times. Survive and advance.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES never got going Tuesday, opening 7580, failing at 7588 early, and bleeding all session to close 7553, back under the 7594 wall it had just broken out over. The overnight held the close for a few hours, then dumped with the headlines to 7468 and built its value low around a 7486 overnight POC before bouncing. It sits 7508, under last week’s POC at 7556 and standing almost exactly on 7497, last week’s value floor. Hold 7497 and the recovery attempt runs 7512 the session VWAP, 7541 where overnight value tops out, and the stack from 7545 to 7556. The overnight already traded through July’s old floor at 7479, so losing 7468 opens 7451 where June’s value bottomed, with 7409 behind it.

NQ bounced to 29686 in the first hour Tuesday and spent the rest of the day giving it back, closing 29395 on a 29540 POC. The overnight snapped the shelf, trading through 29274 last week’s low and 29266 the June value shelf in one move, bottoming 28910 before buyers finally showed up. It sits 29144, under everything that mattered this month, with overnight value built all the way down at a 29000 POC. Get back over 29185, the overnight value ceiling, and the buyers get to attack the broken band between 29210 and 29274. Stay under it and 28910 is the only print between price and 28506, June’s low.

CL was already the story before the president spoke, running a trend day Tuesday from a 69.13 open to a 71.88 close with the buying stacked into the bell. The overnight gapped it to 72.37 and ran it to 75.30, the premium everyone spent two weeks selling out of it back in one night, and it sits 73.65 right on its VWAP with overnight value parked at a 74.00 POC. Above, 75.30 is the only print, and the next real structure is 78.81, June’s value top from the war months. Below, 72.69 the overnight value floor guards 72.51 Tuesday’s high, the edge of everything that traded before the headline. Everything above 71.60 last week’s high is acceptance of the new picture.

GC got rejected at the double print again Tuesday, tagging 4192 in the first hour and breaking to a 4102 low before closing 4125, its first real down day since the pattern started. The overnight kept selling to 4050, and the V-trade that bought every one of these flushes last week did not finish the job this time, stalling at 4080 where it sits now, under its 4100 overnight POC. No safe-haven bid on a war headline. The rate story owns this chart right now, not the fear story. Reclaim 4100 and 4125 for a repair toward 4145 week value, lose 4050 and it is 4041 where last week’s POC and June’s floor of value stack, then 4012 and 3976 underneath.

The Calendar

Wednesday, July 8 (all times CT):

- 9:00 Wholesale inventories for May

- 9:30 EIA crude inventories

- 12:00 10-year note auction

- 1:00 FOMC minutes

The Plan

ES:

The morning question is 7497, last week’s value floor, the shelf price is standing on. Accept above 7512 the session VWAP and 7541 the overnight value top, and the repair runs 7545 Tuesday’s value floor, 7553 the close, and the 7555 stack where the overnight high sits on last week’s POC. That stack is the line between a bounce and a real repair, and above it 7567 Tuesday’s POC and 7580 Tuesday’s value top bring the 7594 wall back into the conversation. Hold 7497 without reclaiming 7555 and the day is a low rotation, rallies getting sold into the stack. Lose 7497 and 7486 the overnight POC goes first, then 7468 the overnight low, and under that the July profile is finished: 7451 June’s value floor, air to 7409 last week’s low, and 7307 June’s low under everything.

NQ:

NQ broke its month overnight, so the plan is about the shelf it broke: 29210 the week low, 29266 June’s value floor, and 29274 where last week bottomed, all stacked in one band. Reclaim 29185, the top of the overnight profile, and that band is the fight, with acceptance back inside it targeting 29329 Tuesday’s value floor, then 29395 the close and 29447 the overnight high. Above those it is 29540 Tuesday’s POC and 29596 Tuesday’s value top, with 29700 June’s POC the roof on any repair this week. Fail at the band and the sellers stay in control, rotating back through 29000 the overnight POC. Lose 28910 the overnight low and there is nothing on the profile until 28506.

CL:

Crude rewrote its chart overnight and the profile has to catch up, so the map is simple. Hold 72.69 the overnight value floor and the new range builds between there and 75.30 the overnight high, with 74.00 the overnight POC the pivot inside it. Accept above 74.00 and a push through 75.30 finds nothing local, with 78.81 June’s value top the next real structure on the chart. Lose 72.69 and 72.51 Tuesday’s high is the gate, the edge of the old world. Under that the unwind gets real: 71.81 the overnight low, 71.60 last week’s high, then 70.47 Tuesday’s POC and 70.00 where June parked its volume, the month POC and the round number in one spot.

GC:

Gold’s line is the 4100 stack: the overnight POC, July’s value floor at 4097, and Tuesday’s 4102 low all within a few dollars, and price is under all of it. Reclaim 4100 and hold it, and the climb back runs 4119, then 4125 where Tuesday’s close sits on last week’s value top. Above 4125 the broken range comes back one level at a time: 4145 the week’s value floor, 4157 the week POC, 4178 Tuesday’s POC, and the 4187 to 4192 double print that started this slide. Stay under 4100 and bounces are sales into the stack. Lose 4050 the overnight low and 4041 catches it first, last week’s POC sitting right on the bottom of June’s value, then 4022 and 4012 under it, and 3976, June’s low, the floor of the whole summer.

The White Van Stuff

Every book on the board got run over from a different direction overnight: crude closed above its whole map, gold fell out the bottom of its band, ES woke up under its entire same-day stack, and NQ flushed its floor and crawled back over it.

ES opens under its whole same-day book for the first time in weeks: the 7545 pivot, the 7550 same-day cap, even the 7525 same-day floor are all overhead. It sits 7508, just over the 7500 put floor, with the expected floor at 7496 right under it.

NQ finally got the test its put-heavy book kept pricing: the overnight traded through the 29000 floor, the same number on both the standard and same-day maps, and came back over it. The 29370 pivot is lost overhead and 29600 is the sellers’ line on the map. It sits 29144, holding above the floor it flushed.

CL cleared everything: the 72.50 same-day cap and the 72.12 expected top are both under price now, and the map above is one line, the 76 cap. It sits 73.65 between a cleared book and the last ceiling anyone drew.

GC is the mirror image, trading under the 4088 same-day floor and under the 4090 expected low, the only market on the board below its band. The 4133 pivot and the 4163 same-day cap stack overhead. It sits 4080 with only thin interest at 4063 and 4038 between it and the 3988 put floor.

You do not need to trade every single day. Go outside.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Week That Was

The whole week turned on one number. Payrolls landed at 57k, soft enough to put the tightening talk on ice, and the indexes that got sold all last week ripped right back while the Dow closed the half at a record. The money leaving the chips kept landing on gold, and crude spent the week scraping its lowest prices since winter as barrels keep coming back.

ES opened the week at 7398 and closed 7557, with Thursday’s 7593.75 high sitting right under last week’s 7599 print. Two weekly highs on top of each other is the wall the new quarter opens against.

NQ opened 29282, ran to 30600 by Tuesday, and the chip selling dragged it to 29328 Thursday before the half-day bought it back to 29901. Higher on the week, ugliest chart of the four getting there.

CL bled to 67.04 Thursday, its lowest trade since February, and finished 68.78. Fourth week lower in a row, and every bounce died at the same line just over 69.

GC flushed to 3962 on Tuesday, a fresh 2026 low by less than a point, then went one direction into a 4187 close. Two weekly lows at the same price in two weeks, both bought.

Cross-asset read: Indexes took the soft print as relief, gold took it as fuel, and crude ignored it completely because its problem is supply, not the rate path. Rotation, not distribution, until the floors start breaking.

Positioning (June 23 data): The holiday pushed the updated report, so this is the same picture as last week, and it played out exactly like bounce fuel does. The short crowd got squeezed out, not converted.

Vol: The VIX closed at 16 and change, books everywhere are priced for a quiet summer, and thin tapes cut both ways.

The Calendar

The minutes are the only thing on here that can really move it, the first look inside the new chair’s first meeting. No Mag7 this week, the banks kick off earnings season the week after.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. FOMC minutes Wednesday 1:00 PM CT. The tape spent four sessions deciding the hawkish turn was overdone. If the minutes read like the committee meant it, the whole rip is offside.

2. ES 7594 and 7599. Two weekly highs stacked overhead. Acceptance above opens 7632, the June high, with nothing traded higher this year.

3. NQ 30000. Holding above it points the bounce back at 30600 where Tuesday died. Losing 29328, Thursday’s flush low, says the chip selling is not done.

4. Gold through 4216. The double floor at 3962 is in and the week closed at the highs. Through 4216, last week’s high, the air gets thin for a long way up.

5. Crude at 67.04. Lowest trade since February with no recent volume underneath. Either the low keeps holding, or it breaks and price discovery does the rest.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

The new quarter opens at 7557 staring at the paired highs at 7594 and 7599, and that is the whole decision. Through 7599 it’s 7632, the June high, and past that nothing on the chart from this year. Hold 7524, Friday’s low, and dips stay entries; lose it and 7480 then 7398 decide whether the rip was real, with 7357 and 7232 waiting below.

NQ:

NQ closed 29901, right in the middle of the week’s fight at 30000. Above it, 30320 then 30600 where Tuesday’s run died, and through there 30968 is the top of the entire structure. Lose 29522 then 29328, the gate, and under that it’s 29160 with air to 28228, the June low.

CL:

Crude closed 68.78 under the 69.25 line it failed at all week. Reclaim it and 70.19, 70.75 and 71.60 are the bounce steps, with nothing above until the stranded structure at 78.96. Lose 68.08 and 67.04 is the gate, the lowest trade since February; below 67 it’s discovery toward the 65 round.

GC:

Gold closed 4187 with only 4208 and 4216, last week’s high, between it and a new recovery leg. Through 4216 the trade is thin all the way toward 4541, the June high. Hold 4134, Friday’s floor, and the V keeps its shape; lose it and 4062 then 4022 come first, with 3962, the double floor, underneath.

The White Van Stuff

The books came out of the holiday pinned: ES inside its densest interest shelf under the cap, NQ sitting on its magnet, crude’s flush caught by its floor, gold pressing its upper band. Nobody is paying up for protection anywhere, which is exactly how quiet weeks stop being quiet.

ES sits at 7557 inside the heavy interest from 7530 to 7580, the 7600 cap directly overhead, the 7510 magnet the landing spot below, and the put floor a long way down at 7400.

NQ closed parked on its 29810 magnet with the put side crowded, interest packed from 29300 down to the 29000 floor. First wall overhead is 30000, the cap a long climb away at 31000.

CL owns the loudest book on the board, compressed into the 66 to 72 window. Thursday’s flush ran straight into the 67 put floor and held, with the magnet at 70 and the cap at 76 on top of everything.

GC ran its reversal straight into the upper interest band, 4192 and 4212 pressing with the 4286 cap on top of them. The floor at 3987 is where the book drew its line, and the 3962 flush poked under it and snapped right back.

Still on vacay so will ease back in this week. The screen will be there tomorrow. Cheers.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES put in its second green day Tuesday, opening 7500, running to 7567, and closing 7545 near the highs on a 7555 POC. The overnight did the opposite, rotating back to the floor of that value, coiling 7510 to 7550 around a 7526 POC, and it sits 7530 just under Tuesday’s 7531 value low. That puts it back at the lower edge of the two-day rip, still holding the bulk of it but slipping off the 7545 close. Bull case is 7519 the overnight floor holds and the reclaim runs 7540, 7545, then 7555 the POC and 7567 the high. Bear case is 7519 fails, 7510 the overnight base and 7495 Tuesday’s low give, and 7474 the week floor opens with 7444 last week’s POC beneath it.

NQ was the engine again Tuesday, opening 30047, knifing to 30599, and closing 30513 on the highs with a 30529 POC. The overnight gave back a chunk, fading to 30299 and parking value at the 30435 VWAP, and it sits 30360 right on 30357 Tuesday’s value floor. It rode the two green days to the top edge of June’s whole value area and is now testing whether that floor holds as support. Bull case is 30357 holds and 30504 the overnight POC and 30513 the close come back, then 30529 the POC and 30599 the high. Bear case is 30299 the overnight bottom gives and 30015 the week POC is the first magnet, then 29890 last week’s recovery high and the 29700 shelf below it.

CL rejected 71.6 Tuesday and closed 70.09, then the overnight took it apart, knifing to poke 68.22 under the floor before bouncing to sit 69.14. That drop rebuilt value all the way down at 68.73, below Tuesday’s entire range, with round 70 lost overhead and the 68.55 multi-month floor right underfoot. It sits pinned between the two, having tested below the line the prior week and the month both bottomed on and recovered it. Bull case is 68.55 holds and the reclaim runs 69.51 Tuesday’s POC, 69.77, then round 70 and 70.51 the Tuesday value top. Bear case is 68.55 cracks with sellers behind it, 68.22 the overnight low.

GC ranged under its POC Tuesday, closing 4030, then flipped the script overnight, dumping to 3973 and ripping the whole move back to sit 4045. That V-shape rebuilt right over the 4041 to 4042 cluster where Tuesday’s POC, the week POC, and June’s value low all stack, the safe-haven bid I wrote off last week suddenly back. It sits pressing the overnight high with the only clean air of the four sitting just above. Bull case is 4042 holds and 4049 the week top and 4051 Tuesday’s value top open the run to 4078 the high, then 4106 last week’s ceiling. Bear case is 4042 fails and 4030 the close, 4025 the week floor, and 4012 the week low give back into the overnight zone toward 3975.

The Calendar

Wednesday, July 1 (all times CT):

- 6:30 Challenger job cuts for June

- 7:15 ADP private payrolls for June

- 8:00 Fed Chair Warsh speaks at the ECB forum in Sintra

- 8:45 S&P Global manufacturing PMI, final

The Plan

ES:

ES rotated back to the floor of Tuesday’s value overnight and sits 7526, coiled on the overnight POC with 7531 Tuesday’s value low right on top. Hold 7519 the overnight value low and the two-day rip keeps its base. Above 7540 the overnight ceiling and 7545 Tuesday’s close, the reclaim runs at 7555 the Tuesday and week POC, then 7567 Tuesday’s high, with 7599 last week’s high and 7647 June’s value top stacked in the air above. Lose 7519 and 7510 the overnight low gives, then 7495 Tuesday’s low is the gate. Under 7495 it is 7474 the week’s value low, then 7451 June’s value low sitting on 7444 last week’s POC where the sellers lived all month, then 7408 last week’s floor before 7307 June’s low.

NQ:

NQ gave back a chunk of the rip overnight and sits 30360 right on 30357 Tuesday’s value floor, the lower edge of the two green days. Hold 30299 the overnight bottom and the base under the rip holds. Above 30389 the overnight value floor and 30504 the overnight POC, the repair runs at 30513 Tuesday’s close and 30529 Tuesday’s POC, then 30553 the overnight high and 30599 Tuesday’s high, with the air above open to 31100 June’s high. Lose 30299 and 30015 the week POC is the first real magnet, then 29890 the prior week’s value high is the gate. Under 29890 it is 29700 where the prior week and the whole month parked their volume, then 29392 the prior week’s value floor, 29265 June’s value low, and 28506 June’s bottom where the month did its business.

CL:

Crude broke down overnight, knifing to poke 68.22 under the floor before bouncing to sit 69.14 on the overnight line, the last of the premium bleeding out as the Doha talks resume. Reclaim 69.51 Tuesday’s POC and 69.77 the overnight ceiling and round 70 comes back, the line last week and June both built their volume on, then 70.51 Tuesday’s value top and 70.91 the week POC ahead of 73.06 last week’s value top. Hold 68.55 where last week and the whole month bottomed and the floor keeps a base under it. Lose 68.55 and 68.22 the overnight base is the last shelf, and under that there is no profile left, just discovery toward 67 the next round number.

GC:

Gold put in the overnight reversal, knifing to 3973 and then ripping the whole thing back to sit 4045, pressing the overnight high and back over the 4041 to 4042 cluster where Tuesday’s POC, the week POC, and June’s value low all stack. Hold 4042 and the safe-haven bid that vanished last week is back in the room. Above 4049 the week top and the overnight high, 4051 Tuesday’s value top opens the air up to 4078 Tuesday’s high, then 4106 the prior week’s ceiling with 4365 June’s POC stranded well above. Lose 4042 and 4030 Tuesday’s close gives, then 4025 the week floor is the gate, then 4012 the week low, 3981 the prior week’s low, and 3975 where the prior week and June share a bottom sitting on 3973 the overnight low.

The White Van Stuff

ES owns the calm book again, the expected day under a percent wide and price sitting between the 7505 pivot below and the 7550 shelf of interest overhead. The 7600 same-day cap is where the sellers are stacked and the 7483 expected low is the mark a real fade has to reach, with the 7400 put floor the deep line beneath.

NQ carries the loud book, the expected day near 1.5 percent wide with the volatility still cranked and positioning tilted the most bullish of the four. Price sits over the 30300 pivot with the 30600 same-day cap the first wall overhead and the 30977 expected high the stretch, the 29000 put floor the deep line well beneath.

CL is the book pressing down into its floor, the 70 pivot lost overhead and the 71.11 expected high a full dollar above where price is trading. The 68 to 68.50 interest shelf is the near support the options crowd drew, the 65 put floor the deep line if the 68.55 structure lets go.

GC book turned with price, the overnight reversal reclaiming the 4029 pivot from below and pushing up under the 4084 expected high. The interest thins out fast above with the 4109 shelf the next real mark, while the 3962 expected low and the 3984 put floor sit stacked under the rebuilt overnight value.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES put in a trend-up day Monday, opening 7457, dumping to 7409, then grinding the whole session back to close 7497 right on its 7495 POC. The overnight did nothing but hold the gain, coiling between 7482 and 7501 around that same 7494 POC, and it sits 7495 still pinned to Monday’s close. That puts it back above the 7475 line last week’s sellers defended and on top of the 7444 week and month POC it spent all of last week beneath. Reclaim stays intact above 7460 Monday’s value floor, and through 7505 Monday’s high the air opens toward 7551 June’s value top. Lose 7460 and 7444 the month POC gives, then 7408 last week’s floor sits right on 7409 Monday’s low.

NQ was the engine Monday, opening 29645, knifing to 29274, then running the entire session to close 30047 on the highs with a 30015 POC. The overnight extended just enough to tag 30086 before settling to 30033 on a 29980 POC, holding everything it took. It sits 30033 back above the 29700 wall where the prior week and the whole month parked their volume, the line every bounce died at until Monday took it. Above 30069 Monday’s high and 30086 the overnight high, the repair points at 30499 June’s value ceiling. Lose 29960 the overnight floor and 29890 last week’s recovery high catches it, then 29700 flips to the gate with 29655 Monday’s value low beside it.

CL built a quiet up day Monday, ranging 69.88 to 71.15 and closing 70.52, though its 70.91 POC sat up near the high where the volume clustered. The overnight gave it back in slow motion, fading to 70.11 and parking value tight at 70.3, and it sits 70.36 just under Monday’s whole value with the war premium long gone and crude’s worst quarter since 2020 nearly in the books. Round 70 is right underfoot, the line the prior week and the month both built their volume on. Reclaim 70.37 Monday’s value low and 70.91 the POC and 71.15 Monday’s high opens the path toward 73.06 the prior week’s value top. Lose 70 and 69.88 Monday’s low gives, then it is the 68.55 floor June and last week keep sharing.

GC kept sliding Monday, opening 4058, fading to 4012, and closing 4030, back under the 4041 POC. The overnight took it apart, knifing from 4032 down to 3955 before bouncing to sit 3978, below Monday’s entire range and the whole June value shelf. That drops it right onto 3976 where the prior week and June share their low, the safe-haven bid still nowhere while stocks rip. Reclaim 4008 the overnight value and 4025 Monday’s value floor for any push back toward 4041 the POC. Lose 3962 the overnight value low and 3955 the overnight low and there is nothing built underneath, just 3950 then 3900 the round numbers.

The Calendar

Tuesday, June 30 (all times CT):

- 8:45 Chicago PMI for June

- 9:00 JOLTS job openings and Conference Board consumer confidence

- 9:30 Dallas Fed services index

- 10:30 6-week bill auction

The Plan

ES:

ES sits 7495 pinned to Monday’s POC and the overnight POC, the reclaim holding right where the week’s sellers used to live. Hold 7460 Monday’s value low to keep the bid in control. Above 7503 Monday’s value top and 7505 the high, the upside opens 7551 June’s value ceiling, then 7599 last week’s high and 7693 June’s high in the air above. Lose 7460 and 7444 stacks the week and June POC together as the first real test, then 7409 Monday’s low sitting on 7408 the prior week’s value low. Under there it is 7354 June’s value floor, then nothing built until 7307 June’s low.

NQ:

NQ sits 30033 holding the gap back above 29700, the wall last week and the month built their volume on and every bounce died beneath until Monday took it back. Hold 29960 the overnight floor and the reclaim stays a base, not a fade. Above 30069 Monday’s high and 30086 the overnight high, the repair runs to 30499 June’s value ceiling, then 30968 last week’s high and 31100 June’s high stacked above. Lose 29960 and 29890 last week’s recovery high gives, then 29700 flips back to the gate with 29655 Monday’s value low beside it. Under 29700 it is 29392 the prior week’s floor, then 29229 June’s value floor before 28506.

CL:

CL sits 70.36 just under Monday’s value with round 70 right underfoot, the line last week and the month both built on. Hold 70 and the base stays intact. Reclaim 70.37 Monday’s value low and 70.91 the POC and the path opens to 71.15 Monday’s high, then 73.06 last week’s range top where the supply waits. Lose 70 and 69.88 Monday’s low gives, then 68.56 stacks last week’s and June’s value floor together right on 68.55 the low they keep sharing. Under 68.55 there is no profile left.

GC:

GC sits 3978, under Monday’s whole range, dropped onto 3976 where last week and June share their low after the overnight knifed it to 3955. Hold 3976 and the prior-week and month floor still has a base under it. Reclaim 4008 the overnight value and 4025 Monday’s value low, and the bounce targets 4041 the POC, then 4045 Monday’s value top. Through there 4106 the prior week’s high and 4365 June’s POC sit stranded a long way up. Lose 3955 the overnight low.

The White Van Stuff

The whole screen is still leaning short into a tape that just ripped. The put side stays loaded under both indexes even after Monday’s rally, and gold gapped clean under its own floor overnight, the positioning chasing the downside it already traded instead of the upside in front of it. Crude is the one book pressing into its cage from below, the volatility bled out of it now that the premium is gone.

ES owns the calm book again, the expected day under a percent wide and price sitting just beneath the 7525 same-day cap. The 7460 pivot is the line underneath and the 7569 expected high is the mark a continuation has to clear.

NQ carries the loud book, the expected day pushing 1.58 percent wide with the volatility still up. Price sits just over the 30000 shelf with the 30500 same-day cap overhead and the 29900 pivot below.

CL is the one trading up into its book, the 71 put floor flipped overhead after price slid under it and the 74.50 same-day cap the next real wall. The expected day runs a tight 69 to 72.49 and price sits 70.36 leaning on round 70.

GC gapped clean under its own floor overnight, the 3984 put floor a line overhead now instead of under price. The 4083 expected high caps a bounce and the 4178 magnet sits well above, the 3962 expected low right where price is already pressed.

Last day of the month. Can’t hold anything back now. Watch out for the close this afternoon.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES spent Friday rejecting its own bounce, opening 7380, tagging 7459, then selling the whole thing back to close 7380 right at the low on a 7422 POC. The overnight gapped up off the Sunday reopen and ran back to 7455, parking value tight between 7423 and 7440 around a 7435 POC, and it sits 7435 now. That puts it back inside Friday’s value but pinned under the 7442 to 7444 shelf where Friday’s value top and the week and month POC all stack, the same wall that capped the bounce. Reclaim 7444 and the upside opens through 7459 Friday’s high toward 7475 last week’s value ceiling. Lose 7408 the Friday and prior-week value floor and 7380 the close gives, then 7360 the shared low with June’s 7307 floor under it.

NQ took the worst close of the week Friday, opening 29362, running 29716, then knifing to 29182 and finishing 29312 near the lows on a 29550 POC. The overnight bought it back, lifting to 29684 just under the wall before settling to 29487 on a 29500 POC. It sits 29487 under Friday’s POC and a long way beneath 29700, the line where last week and the whole month parked their volume and every bounce has died. Reclaim 29700 and 29716 Friday’s high opens the repair toward 29890 the prior week’s value high. Lose 29440 Friday’s value floor and 29392 last week’s floor and 29229 June’s value low is the gate, with 29183 the shared low and 28506 June’s bottom beneath it.

CL put in another down day Friday, ranging 70.56 to 68.55 and closing 69.51 on a 69.25 POC, with that 68.55 low matching the June and prior-week floor. The overnight finally bid it back, lifting off 69.32 to 70.98 and sitting 70.21, above Friday’s whole range and back over the round 70 last week built its volume around. The war premium is fully gone now, and crude is trying to decide if 68.55 was the bottom or just another shelf on the way down. Reclaim 70.98 the overnight high and the air above runs to 73.06 last week’s value high and 73.20 June’s POC. Lose 70 and 69.25 Friday’s POC, then 68.55 the floor June and the prior week keep finding.

GC was the one green close Friday, opening 4059, running 4111, and finishing 4086 in the upper half on a 4100 POC. The overnight handed it right back, fading from 4101 down to 4062 and sitting 4079, back under Friday’s value and the 4100 POC. That is the tell on the screen this morning, gold fading while stocks bounce, the safe-haven bid still nowhere with the rate-hike crowd in control. Reclaim 4082 today’s value edge and 4100 Friday’s POC for a push toward 4107 the top of the prior week’s value and 4111 Friday’s high. Lose 4069 the overnight floor and 4050 Friday’s low and 4049 June’s value floor opens, then 3976 where last week and June share a bottom.

The Calendar

Monday, June 29 (all times CT):

- 9:30 Dallas Fed manufacturing index for June

- 10:30 3-month and 6-month bill auctions

Light board to open the week. The Dallas Fed number is second-tier and the auctions are routine, so nothing with teeth forces the open. The morning trades the levels and last week’s damage, not the data.

The Plan

ES:

ES sits 7435 on the overnight POC, coiled just under the 7442 to 7444 shelf where Friday’s value top and the week and month POC all stack. Reclaim 7444 and 7459 Friday’s high and the overnight high come first, then 7475 last week’s value high, with 7559 June’s value high the bigger target in the air above. Hold 7423 the overnight value floor and the bounce keeps its footing. Below 7408 where Friday’s and the prior week’s value floor stack, 7380 Friday’s close goes, then 7360 the low it shares with last week. Under 7360 there is nothing built until 7307, June’s low where the month did its real business.

NQ:

NQ sits 29487 on the overnight POC, under Friday’s 29550 and a long way below the 29700 wall where last week and the month stacked their volume. Reclaim 29700 and 29716 Friday’s high turns the bounce into a real repair toward 29890 last week’s upper value, then 30547 June’s value ceiling well above. Hold 29440 Friday’s value floor and the dip stays buyable. Below 29392 last week’s floor and 29377 the overnight value low, 29229 June’s value floor is the gate, then 29183 the low Friday shares with last week. Under 29183 the air opens with nothing structural until 28506, June’s bottom where the month’s volume base sits.

CL:

Crude reclaimed the round 70 overnight and trades 70.21, back over the line last week built its volume around with Friday’s whole range beneath it. Through 70.98 the overnight high there is open air up to 73.06 where the prior week’s range topped out and 73.20 June’s POC where the real supply waits. Hold 70 and the base builds from here. Lose 70 and 69.85 the overnight floor, 69.25 Friday’s POC catches the first leg, then 68.55 the floor June and the prior week keep finding. Under 68.55 there is no profile left, just the round numbers down to 67.

GC:

Gold faded back under value overnight and sits 4079 on the overnight POC, under the 4082 value edge and the 4100 Friday POC it lost. Reclaim 4082 and 4100 and the bounce targets 4107 last week’s recovery high, then 4111 Friday’s high, with the air above stranded all the way up to 4365 June’s POC. Hold 4069 the overnight floor to keep a base under it. Lose 4062 the overnight low and 4050 Friday’s low, 4049 June’s value floor opens, then 3981 last week’s lower shelf. Under that 3976 where the prior week and June share a bottom is the last shelf before the slide reopens.

The White Van Stuff

The whole screen is still positioned for the downside it just traded. The put side stays loaded across both indexes and gold gapped back under its floor overnight, the surface tilted defensive even as the chips try to bounce. Crude is the one book pressing up into its cage instead of falling out of it, the expected day a tight 67 to 71 now that the volatility has bled out with the premium.

ES owns the calm book of the four, the expected day barely a percent wide and price sitting just under the 7450 interest shelf. The 7460 same-day cap and the 7475 expected high are the marks a bounce has to clear, the 7400 put floor the first real line beneath.

NQ carries the loud book, the expected day pushing 1.74 percent wide and the volatility still cranked. Price sits on the 29500 pivot with the 29750 same-day cap overhead and the 29900 magnet above it, the 29000 put floor the deep line beneath.

CL is the one trading up into its book, the 71 put floor flipped overhead after the overnight reclaim and the 75 same-day cap the next real wall. The expected day runs a tight 67.44 to 71.02, and price sits 70.21 pressing the top of the band.

GC gapped back under its own floor overnight, the 4100 put floor a line overhead now instead of under price. The 4157 expected high caps a bounce and the 4195 magnet sits well above, the 4035 expected low and the 4000 put floor the marks beneath.

Deep breath, calm mind. Have fun out there.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

Tech bleeding and gold bidding on the same tape is the tell of the week. Crude was off in its own funeral, third week lower with the war premium fully gone, answering to supply instead of the rate path. Four sessions of selling in the indexes, one violent reversal in gold, and all of it walks into a jobs report that got pulled forward into a holiday-shortened week.

ES opened the week at 7573 and closed Friday at 7380, lower on the week and out the bottom of its own value. The week POC built up at 7444 with the 7408 value floor sitting above the close, the first weekly close back under value since the recovery rolled over. Sellers leaned on every bounce the entire back half.

NQ took it the hardest. It opened 30822, tagged 30968 early, then the chip worry took the wheel and it bled to a 29182 low and a 29312 close, the 29700 week POC a ceiling now. The chip-led group that carried the tape all spring is the one dragging it lower.

CL kept doing what it has done for a month. It opened the week near 74, lost the 73 shelf by midweek, and closed 69.51 sitting on the 68.55 week low, the whole pre-crash structure stranded up near 80 and the spring’s value a different planet entirely. The barrels-are-coming-back trade has pulled price clean out of three months of value.

GC was the comeback story. It opened 4225, flushed to a fresh 2026 low at 3975, then reversed hard and closed 4086 back above the 4030 week POC. The metal that bled all spring is suddenly catching every dollar that runs out of tech, and it did it with the ten-year still going the wrong way for it.

Cross-asset read: One hawkish reset, two opposite trades. The indexes sold the rate scare and the growth worry on the same tape, while the rotation out of tech handed gold the bid it could not buy for itself all spring. The metal is up with yields up, which is not supposed to happen, and that divergence is the cleanest read on the board. Crude answers to supply and the talks, not the rate path, so it is in its own world at the lows.

Positioning (June 23 data): The trader crowd walked in leaning short both the S&P and the Nasdaq, which is exactly the bounce fuel that keeps getting lit every time the tape has to cover into strength. The barrel crowd finally flipped to the short side after riding the premium down all spring.

Vol: Equity protection stayed cheap on the S&P while the Nasdaq’s book is the jumpy one of the two, and crude still carries the fattest, loudest book on the screen. A tape priced for calm walking into Thursday’s number on a half day is the part that bites.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Payrolls Thursday 7:30 AM CT. The override on every chart, and it lands on a half day before a long weekend. The first read since the projections flipped to a hike, dropping into a thin tape that shuts at noon. Hot confirms the dots, soft fights them, and either way the close carries gap risk into Monday.

2. NQ getting carried out. It closed 29312 under the 29700 wall where the week and the month both stacked their POC. While it is under that line the path points down at the 28506 June low, and the chip group that broke it is the one that has to fix it.

3. Gold’s reversal. It printed a fresh 2026 low at 3975 and turned on a dime, closing back above the 4030 week POC. The bid is the money leaving the semis, not the rate path, so the question is whether it holds 4030 or fades back into the flush.

4. Crude in a vacuum. Third week lower and pressing the 68.55 week and month low with no recent volume underneath. The whole pre-crash shelf is stranded near 80 and 91, so bounces are headline trades and the breakdown is the structure.

5. ES back under value. Friday closed under the 7408 value floor for the first time since the recovery topped. Reclaim 7408 and the dip stays a bounce, lose 7360 and the week turns heavy toward the 7307 June low where the month built its volume on June’s flush.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES closed the week at 7380, under the 7408 floor of its value, so the first job is reclaiming 7408 to get back inside the range. Above 7408 the 7444 week and month POC is next, then 7475 week VAH, and above there the 7558 last week’s value floor is the line that says the dip-buyers actually showed up. Through 7558 the 7613 last week’s POC is the wall where all the recovery volume now sits as supply, with 7649 last week’s high and the 7693 June high overhead. Hold 7360 and the dip stays a bounce. Lose 7360 the week low and 7355 the June VAL goes with it, then there is air down to 7307, the June low.

NQ:

NQ closed 29312, under the 29392 week value floor, the weakest of the four and the one the AI worry is carrying out. The line that matters is the 29700 stack where the week and the month both parked their POC, so reclaiming 29392 gets it back into value and 29700 is the wall it has to take to call this anything but a bounce. Above 29700 the 29890 week VAH opens, then air to the 30353 last week’s value floor and 30450 last week’s POC, with 30915 last week’s high overhead. Lose 29229 the June VAL and 29182 the week low is the gate, and losing that opens the vacuum straight to 28506.

CL:

Crude closed 69.51 sitting on the 68.55 week and month low, having fallen clean out of its own value with the 70 week POC the only nearby line overhead. A bounce has to first reclaim 73.06 the week VAH and 73.20 the month POC, and from there it is a long climb to the stranded volume at 75.85 last week’s POC, 77.55 last week’s VAH, and 80.04 the June VAH. Those are headline-only targets now. Lose 68.55 and there is no recent profile underneath, just price discovery into the 67 round and the 65 floor.

GC:

Gold reversed off the 3975 low and closed 4086, back above the 4030 week POC and pressing the 4106 week value high that lids the bounce. Reclaim 4106 and 4160 last week’s low is the first step, then 4231 last week’s value floor gets it back inside last week’s range, with 4250 last week’s POC and 4365 the June POC the next shelves up. Above there 4403 the June VAH and 4532 the May POC are the wall where the long crowd kept trimming all spring. Lose 4030 and 4049 the June VAL goes, then 3981 the week VAL, then back to 3975.

The White Van Stuff

ES has the calmest book of the four, the option crowd leaning slightly short with cheap protection and price pinned right on the 7400 put floor it has been defending. The magnet sits overhead at 7490 and the cap is a long way up at 7800, so the whole fight is in the dense interest shelf between the floor and the magnet.

NQ carries the heaviest put-side book of the four and it is sitting in the bottom third of its expected week, leaning on the 29000 floor with the magnet pinned just overhead at 29900. The cap is a long way up at 31000 with thin interest the whole way there, which is what a contract getting carried out looks like on the book.

CL owns the fattest, loudest book on the board and the vol on it never came in. The magnet is stranded up at 79 in a different era of the contract, the cap a relic at 90, and down at price the only thing that matters is the heavy interest stacked from 66 to 72 and the real floor a long way under at 65.

GC spent the week climbing back into its own book, price now pressing the upper interest after reversing off the low with the long crowd leaning hard into every bounce. The cap is up at 4300, the magnet sits overhead at 4195, and the put floor down at 4000 is the line the reversal cannot afford to lose.

Life moves pretty fast. Go blow up some shit with m80s and grill some burgers and hotdogs.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES put in a down day Thursday, opening 7485 and closing weak at 7428, below its own 7421 POC. The overnight gapped under that and never got back, parking value between 7365 and 7405 with price now 7381. It sits below Thursday’s whole value area and below 7444, the shelf the week’s sellers keep defending. Bull case is a reclaim of 7405 and the day rotates back toward 7421 and that 7444 wall. Bear case is 7385 fails, 7364 the overnight low gives, and 7307 the June low is the next shelf.

NQ is the broken one, a heavy down day Thursday from a 30153 open to a 29749 close, and the overnight kept selling, cracking clean through Thursday’s 29296 low. Value rebuilt lower between 29216 and 29558, and price is back to 29307 hugging the developing POC. It sits below Thursday’s value, below the week VAL, and a long way under the 29700 stack where Thursday, the week, and the month all parked their POC. Bull case is a reclaim of 29330 and a grind back toward that 29700 wall. Bear case is 29296 gives again and the 29211 overnight low opens the air pocket down to 28506.

CL actually had an up day Thursday, closing 72.03 right at its 72.50 high, then handed all of it back overnight. It sold from 70.40 down to 68.96 and sits 69.79, under the 70.00 week POC and VWAP it had been holding. Value is parked low between 69.13 and 70.38, and crude is back in the floor of its month-long slide. Bull case is reclaiming 70.00 and rotating up toward 71.57 Thursday POC. Bear case is the 69.13 shelf fails and 68.96 last night’s low opens discovery lower.

GC went the other way, an up day Thursday off the 3993 low into a 4041 close, then a clean overnight bid up to 4081. It sits 4070, above Thursday’s 4055 POC and above today’s 4063 VAH, the only one of the four trading above value. Bull case is 4063 holds and the run extends through 4081 toward 4135 week VAH. Bear case is 4055 gives back and 4030, the week POC, is the gate before 3975 the June low.

The Calendar

Friday, June 26 (all times CT):

- 7:30 Goods trade balance and wholesale and retail inventories, advance reads

- 9:00 Michigan consumer sentiment, final, with the inflation expectations baked in

- Late morning Fed’s Williams and Kashkari both speak

- 12:00 Baker Hughes rig count

The Plan

ES:

ES is pinned under 7385, the developing POC that capped the whole overnight, with session VWAP at 7396 just above it. Reclaim 7396 and 7405 today’s VAH and the first real test is 7421 Thursday’s POC, then 7444 week POC where the sellers have lived all week. Push through 7444 and 7479 week VAH opens, with the bigger overhead target up at 7558, last week’s value floor. Lose 7385 with sellers behind it and 7365 developing VAL goes first, then 7364 the overnight low is the line that matters. Below 7364 there is air, nothing structural until 7307, the June low where the month finally built volume.

NQ:

NQ is the one getting carried out, sitting 29307 right on the 29330 developing POC after the overnight cracked through Thursday’s low. Reclaim 29330 and 29375 week VAL is first, then 29470 session VWAP, then the wall at 29700 where Thursday, the week, and the month all stacked their POC. That 29700 is the line that has to break to call this anything but a bounce, and above it 29803 Thursday VAH and the prev-week floor up at 30353 come back into view. Lose 29330 and 29296 Thursday low goes, then 29264 week low, then 29216 where the developing VAL and last night’s low stack is the trapdoor. Below 29211 it is open air down to 28506, the June low and the only place the month built real volume.

CL:

Crude gave back all of Thursday and then some, sitting 69.79 under 70.00, the week POC and session VWAP it lost overnight. Reclaim 70.00 and 70.38 today’s VAH is first, then 70.82 Thursday VAL, then 71.57 Thursday POC where the up day built. Through there 72.50 Thursday’s high and 73.22 week VAH come back, with the real overhead supply not until 75.85, last week’s POC. Lose the 69.13 to 69.46 shelf where developing VAL and week VAL stack, and 68.96 the overnight low guards the next leg. Below 68.96 there is no volume shelf left, just price discovery toward 67 and the next round number down.

GC:

Gold is catching every dollar that runs out of tech, sitting 4070 back above 4055 Thursday POC and 4063 today’s VAH after the overnight bid. Hold 4063 and 4081 the overnight high is first, then open air up to 4135 week VAH, with the real overhead supply not until 4231 and 4250, last week’s value. Lose 4063 and 4055 Thursday POC goes, then the 4030 to 4045 shelf where the week POC, month VAL, and session VWAP all sit is where it decides. Below 4030 the bid is done and 4016 developing VAL opens, then 3993 Thursday low. Under 3993 it is back to 3975, the June low where the whole month bottomed.

The White Van Stuff

The protection is stacked and the floors already broke. The equity put floor that should have held the line sits overhead now on both ES and NQ, the options crowd leaning short into the slide instead of fading it. Crude punched below its expected range floor and gold is pressing its cap, so three of the four are trading outside the band the positioning drew.

ES: ES already lost the floor. The 7400 put floor that should have been the line is sitting overhead now, and the same-day cap is way up at 7515. Heavy interest stacks at 7375 and 7350 below, which is also the expected low for the day.

NQ: Same story one floor lower. The 29500 put floor flipped overhead overnight, and the next real shelf the options crowd is defending is 29000. The day is priced to range 29218 to 30231, and price is already pressed against the bottom near 29218 the expected low.

CL: Crude blew through its own floor. The 71 put floor and 71.75 cap are both overhead now, and price already slipped under 69.91 the expected low. The next real options floor is not until 65.

GC: Gold is the mirror image, pressing up into its cap instead of falling out of its floor. The same-day ceiling is 4090 right overhead, and a push through it puts 4111 the expected high in play. The floor the options draw is 4000, with the expected low just under it at 3983.

Protect yourself at all times. Survive and advance.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES opened 7447 Wednesday, tagged 7496 on the morning bounce, then sold the whole session to close 7428 near the 7404 low, value 7426 to 7496 around a 7480 POC. The overnight took the chip relief and dragged it straight back up, rebuilding into that 7480 POC and pressing 7491. It sits 7475, a clean reclaim of where Wednesday’s value topped out, under the 7486 value cap and inside today’s value. Through 7491 the overnight high and 7496 Wednesday’s high, the path opens to 7543 the week and month POC. Lose 7467 the value floor and 7452 the overnight low, 7440 the week floor cracks, with 7426 Wednesday’s value low under it.

NQ did the real damage Wednesday, opening 29711, failing 29907, and cutting to a 29264 low before closing 29515 near the bottom, a hollow profile with the 29703 POC stranded up top. The chip print detonated it overnight, running 30219 and rebuilding the whole upper value into a 30100 POC. It sits 30130, back above Wednesday’s entire range and the 29730 week POC, gapped clean past where the day was supposed to top. Through 30194 the top of the overnight and 30219 the high, the repair points at 30353 last week’s value floor, then 30450 last week’s POC. Lose 30100 the overnight POC and 30020 the week’s value ceiling and 29864 June’s floor catches it, then 29856 the overnight bottom.

CL rolled into its second session on the new front month, fading Wednesday from 71.04 to 69.63 and closing 70.04 on a 70 POC, value pinned 69.94 to 70.49. The overnight kept leaking, carving a fresh 68.9 low under the contract’s short floor before bouncing back to 69.82. It sits 69.82 right on the 69.63 low the new chart keeps defending, the round 70 just overhead and the old pre-roll profile stranded miles above. Reclaim 70 and 70.49 Wednesday’s value high and the rebuild gets a base toward 72 and 73. Lose 69.63 and 68.9 the overnight base, with no profile underneath, just the 68 and 67 round numbers on the fresh contract.

GC got taken apart again Wednesday, opening 4057 and sliding to a 3975.8 low before closing 4004.9 on a 4000 POC, value 3982 to 4030. The overnight gave a soft bounce between 3986 and 4017 and could not do more, the safe-haven crowd still nowhere while the rate-hike crowd runs it. It sits 3994 under the 4000 POC and the whole June value shelf, the one chart on the screen that never got the relief memo. Reclaim 4000 and 4013 the overnight VAH and 4030 Wednesday’s ceiling opens a push toward 4094 June’s floor. Lose 3986 the overnight base, then 3976 where Wednesday, the week, and June all share a low and the air opens under, 3950 the next round number.

The Calendar

- 7:30 AM CT, the May PCE inflation read, the Fed’s preferred gauge, stacked with durable goods, the final first-quarter GDP, and weekly jobless claims

- 9:30 AM CT, weekly natural gas storage

- 10:00 AM CT, Kansas City Fed manufacturing

- 12:00 PM CT, 7-year note auction

- 2:40 PM CT, the Fed’s Williams speaks

The Plan

ES:

ES reclaimed Wednesday’s 7480 POC overnight and sits 7475 pressing the 7486 value top, the bounce trying to prove it has legs. Through 7491 the overnight high and 7496 Wednesday’s high, the upside opens 7543 where the week and June POC stack, then 7558 the week value top sitting on last week’s floor, 7599 the week high, and 7613 last week’s POC where the real volume waits. Hold 7467 the overnight floor and the dip stays a bounce. Below 7467 and 7452 the overnight low fails, 7440 the week floor catches the first leg, then 7426 Wednesday’s value low and 7404 where Wednesday and the week share a low. Under that there is no profile built until 7307 June’s low where the month did its business.

NQ:

NQ clawed back everything it lost overnight and sits 30130 back over Wednesday’s whole range, the chip print turning the worst session of the run into a gap straight back up. Through 30194 the top of the overnight and 30219 the high, the recovery targets 30353 last week’s value floor, then 30450 last week’s POC and 30620 June’s POC stacked above, with 30759 last week’s value ceiling and 30915 the high the prize beyond. Hold 30100 the overnight POC and the gap stays bought. Below it 30020 the week’s value ceiling and 29864 June’s floor fail, 29856 the overnight low goes, then 29730 the week POC and 29515 Wednesday’s close. Under that 29264 the Wednesday and week low is the gate, with 28506 June’s low where the month’s volume base sits beneath it.

CL:

Crude is two sessions into the new front month and trades 69.82, leaning on the 69.63 low the fresh chart keeps defending with the round 70 just above. Reclaim 70 and 70.49 Wednesday’s value high and the rebuild gets a base toward 71, then 72 and 73 where the early volume on the contract starts to cluster. Hold 69.63 and the floor holds. Lose 69.63 and 68.9 the overnight bottom and there is no profile built underneath on the new contract, just the 68 then 67 round numbers below.

GC:

Gold is the holdout, trading 3994 under the 4000 POC and the entire June value shelf with no safe-haven bid showing up. Reclaim 4000 and 4013 the overnight VAH and 4030 Wednesday’s ceiling and the bounce has a case toward 4094 June’s value floor, then 4151 the week’s value high, 4160 last week’s low, and 4250 last week’s POC where the gold crowd lost the most. Hold 3986 the overnight bottom and the base holds together. Lose 3986 and 3976 where Wednesday, the week, and June share a low and the air opens beneath, 3950 the next round number then 3900 under it.

The White Van Stuff

The whole screen is still positioned for the downside it just traded, even with the chips ripping overnight. The put side stays loaded across both indexes, the surface tilted defensive into a tape that already broke and then snapped back. Gold gapped below its own floor again, and crude’s book is a different planet from where the fresh contract actually trades.

ES owns the calm book of the four, the expected day a single percent wide and price sitting just under the 7490 line that should pull it. The 7500 same-day cap and the 7503 expected high are the marks a continuation has to clear, the 7400 interest shelf the first real thing beneath.

NQ carries the loud book, the expected day pushing 1.72 percent wide, and the overnight rip ran it clean past the 30022 top of that range. Price sits right on the 30120 same-day cap with the 30022 expected high flipped underneath, the 29825 magnet beneath that.

CL still owns the loudest surface on the board, the 90 cap and the 79 magnet a universe away from a contract trading under 70. Down at price the 72.27 expected high caps any bounce and the 70 floor sits right overhead, the 68.41 expected low the line just beneath.

GC gapped clean below its own floor again, the 4000 put floor now a line overhead instead of under price. The 4075 expected high caps the bounce, the 4290 magnet a long way up, and the 3942 expected low the next real mark beneath.

The levels are there. The map is drawn. Just read the tape.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES sold the chip rout Tuesday, ranging 7415 to 7491 and closing 7435 near the lows. The overnight stopped the bleed, holding 7439 and grinding back to 7467 with value rebuilding around 7448. It reclaimed Tuesday’s 7444 POC and the 7435 close and now presses the top of today’s thin value at 7458. Above 7467 the overnight high opens 7468 Tuesday’s value top and 7491 the session high; below 7441 and 7431 Tuesday’s value floor the air runs to 7307 June’s low. It sits 7456, back on top of yesterday’s value.

NQ was ground zero Tuesday, knifing from 30047 to close 29650 at the lows as the memory names got torched. The overnight bounced it off 29734 up to 29884 and value rebuilt at 29820, the first footing buyers have found since the selling started. It sits 29802, back above Tuesday’s 29730 POC and inside today’s value under the 29871 top. Above 29871 and the 29884 overnight high the repair points at 30047 Tuesday’s high, then 30353 last week’s value floor. Below 29742 and the 29577 Tuesday low nothing is built until 28506 June’s low where the month’s volume sits.

CL rolled to the new front month overnight, and the whole old chart went with it, prices resetting a couple bucks lower into the August contract. There is no profile built here yet, the session starting fresh at 70.98 with the round numbers the only marks that travel across the roll. The 75 area belongs to a different contract now, so the playable cage is 72 and 73 overhead, 70 underfoot. Hold 70 and the rebuild starts from here; lose it and 69 is the next round number with open air beneath. It sits 70.98, building its first session on the new contract.

GC got sold right next to the stocks again, then the overnight took it apart, sliding from 4145 down to 4022 as the rate-hike crowd buried any safe-haven bid. It sits 4028, below the whole prior session and below June’s value, the 4072 month low now a ceiling overhead. Reclaim 4064 today’s value low and 4086 the session POC for a push toward 4114 the overnight high and 4120 today’s value top. Below 4022 the overnight low there is 4000 round, then air. It sits 4028, leaning on the lows with the month’s value stranded above.

The Calendar

- 9:00 AM CT, New Home Sales for May

- 9:30 AM CT, EIA crude oil inventories

- 12:00 PM CT, 5-year note auction

- 3:00 PM CT, bank stress test results

The Plan

ES:

ES reclaimed Tuesday’s 7444 POC overnight and sits 7456 pressing the 7458 value top, the bounce trying to prove itself. Above 7467 the overnight high and 7468 Tuesday’s value top, the upside opens 7491 the session high, then 7543 the week and month POC and 7558 last week’s value floor where the real volume waits. Hold 7448 today’s POC and the dip stays a bounce. Below 7441 today’s value low and 7431 Tuesday’s value floor it rolls back over, 7420 then 7415 the Tuesday low next. Under there nothing is built until 7307 June’s low where the month did its business.

NQ:

NQ found its first footing at 29820 after Tuesday’s knife and sits 29802 back above the 29730 POC. Above 29871 today’s value top and the 29884 overnight high, the repair runs to 30047 Tuesday’s high, then 30353 last week’s value floor and 30450 last week’s POC stacked above. Hold 29742 today’s value low to keep the bounce alive. Below it and the 29577 Tuesday low fails, the air opens with nothing structural in the way. The next real shelf is 28506 June’s low where the month’s volume base sits.

CL:

Crude rolled to the new front month and trades 70.98 with no profile built yet, the old contract’s chart stranded a couple bucks overhead. The playable structure is round numbers until the session fills in, 72 then 73 the marks above, 70 the line underfoot. Hold 70 and the rebuild gets a base toward 72. Lose 70 and 69 opens with open air beneath on the fresh contract.

GC:

Gold gapped through everything overnight and sits 4028, below June’s value with the 4072 month low now a ceiling. Reclaim 4064 today’s value low and 4086 the session POC for a push toward 4114 the overnight high and 4120 today’s value top, then 4140 Tuesday’s value floor above. Hold 4022 the overnight low to keep a base under it. Lose 4022 and 4000 round is the next line, with air beneath into the 3900s. The prior session’s 4145 POC is a long way back up now.

The White Van Stuff

The whole screen is positioned for more downside after two days of it. The put side is loaded across the indexes, gold gapped clean below its entire book the same way the chips did, and crude’s whole surface reset with the roll. Calm on the S&P, loud everywhere else.

ES has the quietest book of the four, the expected day only 0.87 percent wide and price sitting mid-band. The 7440 same-day floor is just beneath, the 7503 expected high and 7525 magnet the marks that matter on a bounce.

NQ owns the loud book, the expected day 1.74 percent wide and the volatility still cranked. Price sits on the 29800 interest shelf, the 30183 expected high and the 29875 same-day floor both flipped overhead after the gap down.

CL reset its whole surface with the roll, the band running 71.18 to 75.24 on the prior contract with price already below the floor of it. The 72.50 same-day floor and 74.25 same-day cap are the playable marks above, the 70 put floor the deep line right under price.

GC did what the chips did, gapping clean below its whole book. The 4091 expected low and 4100 put floor are both stranded overhead now, the 4000 put floor the deep line with nothing same-day built beneath price.

Rule #76 No Excuses. Play like a champion.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Tape

ES spent Friday’s holiday session in a paper-thin range, closing 7556 and telling you the long weekend really started Thursday. The overnight dipped to 7513 on the Sunday reopen, bought it all back, and parked 7562 right on the 7563 session POC, back inside last week’s 7558 value shelf. Through 7577 the overnight high the repair opens 7613 where the week and month POC stack, then 7636 the ceiling and 7649 last week’s high. Lose 7539 the overnight value base and 7513 the low and 7472 last week’s bottom comes back into play. It sits 7562, dead on the overnight POC.

NQ led all weekend, taking the overnight up to 30828 and sitting 30748, well above Friday’s thin holiday range and last week’s 30450 volume shelf. The Sunday tape rebuilt the entire upper value area, the tell that last week’s flush was positioning and not a top. Through 30828 the overnight top the path reopens to 30915 last week’s high, then the 31100 June high where the records sit. Lose 30671 Friday’s POC and 30610 the overnight POC and 30450 the week and month stack is the line, then 30353 last week’s floor. It sits 30748, pressing the session high.

CL keeps leaking as the talks make progress, slipping to 76.5 under Friday’s 76.63 value low and leaning on the 76.0 line last week built its volume around. Friday’s holiday session held a tight 76 to 77.66 and settled 77.54, and the overnight gave that right back. The whole pre-deal chart is stranded overhead, with no real shelf until 80.15 last week’s value ceiling. Reclaim 76.63 and 77.54 and a repair starts, otherwise, lose 76.0 and 73.60 last week’s low and the floor gives. It sits 76.5, pinned under value with nothing built below.

GC is the one that finally bounced, running from a 4151 overnight low back to 4238 and sitting 4222 just under the 4225 line value built around. Friday closed 4172 near the lows of a brutal three-week slide, and the Sunday tape bought the whole thing back overnight. It is still under last week’s broken structure, with 4231 the value base and 4250 the POC the gold crowd lost on the way down. Reclaim 4225 and 4233 and the bounce targets 4250, otherwise lose 4201 the overnight floor and 4172 Friday’s close and 4160 reopens. It sits 4222, an oversold bounce into the first real wall.

The Calendar

- 8:00 AM CT, Fed’s Waller speaks

- 10:30 AM CT, 3-month and 6-month bill auctions

The Plan

ES:

ES dipped to 7513 on the Sunday reopen, bought it back, and sits 7562 right on the 7563 overnight POC, holding above Friday’s thin close. Through 7577 the overnight high the repair runs 7613 where the week and month POC stack together, then 7636 the week’s ceiling, 7649 last week’s high, and 7693 June’s high in the clear air above. Hold 7539 the overnight value shelf and the dip stays a bounce. Below 7539 fails and 7513 the overnight low is the gate, then 7472 last week’s bottom where the selloff stopped. Under that it is open to 7307 June’s floor where the month’s real volume sits.

NQ:

NQ is the leader, running to 30828 overnight and sitting 30748, above the 30711 overnight value top and Friday’s holiday range. Through 30828 the overnight top the path reopens to 30915 last week’s high, then 30831 June’s value ceiling and the 31100 June high where the records live. Hold 30711 and dips stay buyable against the overnight value. Below 30671 Friday’s POC and 30610 the overnight POC fails, 30450 the week and month POC stack is the trapdoor, then 30353 last week’s floor. Under that the air runs to 29923 last week’s low where the volume shelf sits.

CL:

Crude keeps bleeding premium as the talks make progress, slipping to 76.5 under Friday’s 76.63 value low and leaning on the 76.0 line last week built its volume around. Reclaim 76.63 and 77.54 Friday’s high and close and the repair argument starts, but the next real shelf is stranded way up at 80.15 last week’s value ceiling, then 86.66 and 91.30 where June’s volume sits overhead. Hold 76.0 and the slide pauses. Lose 76.0 and 73.60 last week’s low and the base gives way. Under it there is almost no profile, just the 73 and 72 round numbers price has not visited in a long time.

GC:

Gold finally caught a bounce, running from a 4151 overnight low up to 4238 and sitting 4222 just under the 4225 line value built around overnight. Reclaim 4225 and 4233 where the overnight ceiling and last week’s lower value stack, and the bounce has a case toward 4250 last week’s POC, then 4365 June’s POC well above. Hold 4201 the overnight floor and the bounce keeps its footing. Lose 4201 and 4172 Friday’s close and 4160 where Friday and last week share a low is the line. Under that it reopens 4151 the overnight low and air to 4120 June’s value base where the month’s volume sits.

The White Van Stuff

The index books are about as calm as they get, both expected days tight and positioning leaning bullish under a couple of caps a long way overhead. Gold’s book sits balanced with price pinned between a near floor and the caps it lost last week.

ES has the calmest book on the screen, the expected day under a percent wide and the 7700 cap a different planet overhead. The 7545 magnet is the near-shelf under price, with the put floor parked way down at 7400. It sits 7562, mid-cage with room up to the 7625 expected top.

NQ‘s book reads the same, bullish and roomy, with the 31000 same-day cap and the 32000 cap the lines a breakout aims at. The 30490 magnet and the 30425 put floor stack just under price. It sits 30748, mid-cage with the caps overhead.

CL still owns the loudest book on the board, the cap stranded way up at 100 and the magnet at 81.55, both a different universe from where price trades. The only marks near price are the 76.75 interest just overhead and the 75 area beneath, and below the expected low the book thins to nothing. It sits 76.5, mid-band with the whole surface tilted toward where crude used to be.

GC has a balanced book, the 4382 cap the line that capped last week and the 4287 expected top the nearer wall. The 4258 pivot and 4233 interest sit just overhead, with the put floor down at 4183 the next real line beneath. It sits 4222, leaning on the bounce into a stack of overhead interest.

Survive and advance. In that spirit, join Stowe and me Tonight as VibesTraders brings you show #3 on our lineup. VibeCheck - A Mental Game segment live at 8pm CT.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

ES spent the front half clawing back toward the highs and tagged 7649 Tuesday, a hair under the 7693 June high, before the projections knocked it back into value. It closed 7564 sitting on the 7558 floor of the week’s value with the 7613 POC built right overhead. First close back under that POC since the recovery started.

NQ took the rate hit hardest and recovered it fastest. It slid to 29923 on the projections, then the semi headline carried it back through the whole drop to close 30693, leaning on the upper third of the week’s value above the 30450 POC. Strongest of the four and the only one that closed within striking distance of its 31100 record.

CL kept doing what it has done for a month. It opened the week near 80, lost the 73.58 low by Thursday, and closed 76.91 with the entire pre-crash shelf stranded up at 84 and 91. The supply-is-coming-back trade has pulled price clean out of three months of value.

GC was the wreck of the group. It ranged 4220 to 4403 and closed 4236 near the low, then the thin holiday tape leaked it under the 4220 week low toward 4180. Every bit of structure now sits overhead, and the metal is trading straight inverse to the ten-year with nothing under it to lean on.

Cross-asset read: One central bank and one corporate headline split the board clean in two. The projections should have sunk everything, and for an afternoon they did, but the tie-up handed equities a reason to climb back while the metal had no such lifeline and ate the rate move whole. Crude is off in its own world, answering to supply and the talks, not to the rate path. The indexes are a chip story, gold is a rates story, and oil is a peace story, all printing on the same tape.

Vol: The fear gauge slid back under 18 as the protection bought for the meeting got dumped into the semi rally, so equity vol is cheap again right into a PCE Thursday. Gold and crude vol never came in, and the metal’s book is built to push the next leg down, not catch it.

The Calendar

Micron after the bell Wednesday is the lone single-stock print with real macro in it, a direct read on whether the bid that saved the week has earnings to back it up. Everything else bends to Thursday morning.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. PCE Thursday 7:30 AM CT. The override on every chart. The first inflation read since the projections flipped to a hike, stacked with GDP and durable goods the same morning. Hot confirms the dots, soft fights them.

2. NQ holds the chip bid. It closed 30693 back above the 30450 week POC on the strength of the semi headline and never looked back. While it holds that line the path points at the 31100 record. Micron after Wednesday’s close is the test of whether the bid has earnings under it.

3. ES at the floor of value. The recovery ran into the 7613 week POC and stalled, closing 7564 on the 7558 value floor. Above 7613 the highs come back into view, under 7558 the week turns heavy toward the 7472 low.

4. Crude in a vacuum. It fell clean out of three months of value and there is no recent volume under the 73.58 low. The whole pre-crash shelf is stranded at 84 and 91, so bounces are headline trades and the breakdown is the structure.

5. Gold has nothing overhead but supply. Every level above price is a seller now. It is pressing the 4220 week low with the 4072 flush low the last real shelf underneath, and it answers to the ten-year harder than anything else on the board.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES closed the week on the 7558 floor of its value with the 7613 POC sitting right on top, so the first job is reclaiming 7613 to get back in control. Above 7613 the 7636 week and month ceiling is next, then 7649 the week high and 7693 the June high where the whole run topped out. Hold 7558 and the dip stays a bounce. Lose 7558 and 7546 the June value floor goes, then 7499 last week’s POC and 7472 where the week put in its low. Below 7472 there is air down to 7420 last week’s value floor, and under that the slide runs to 7307 where June built its volume on the jobs flush, the line the whole month is stacked on.

NQ:

NQ closed 30693 in the upper third of its value, holding above the 30450 POC the semis reclaimed, the strongest chart of the four. Above 30766 the week ceiling and 30834 June’s, the 30915 week high is the gate, and taking it opens clean air to the 31100 record. Hold 30450 and dips stay buyable. Lose 30450 and 30353 the week value floor goes, then 30139 last week’s high and 29923 the week low catch the first legs down. Below 29923 the vacuum opens to 29524 last week’s volume shelf, then 28506 where last week and June share their low, the deep base the whole rally is built over.

CL:

Crude closed 76.91 having fallen clean out of its own value, the 76 week POC the only nearby line and the whole pre-crash shelf stranded overhead. A bounce has to first reclaim 80.16 the week ceiling, and from there it is a long climb to the stranded volume at 84 last week’s low, 86.66, June’s value floor, and 91.30 where the month and last week both built their base. Those are headline-only targets now. Lose 73.58 the shared week and June low and there is no recent profile underneath, just price discovery into the low 70s and the 70 round where the next real volume sits.

GC:

Gold closed 4236 near its low and the holiday tape leaked it under the 4220 week low toward 4180, so it walks in below everything. The first job is reclaiming 4231 the week value floor and the 4250 POC just to get back inside the range. Above that 4284 last week’s value high and 4364 the week ceiling are the next steps, with 4403 the week high and 4532 the May POC the wall where the long crowd keeps selling. Lose 4180 and 4112 June’s value floor is the catch, then 4072 where last week and June share the flush low. Below 4072 it is fresh discovery with no volume to lean on.

The White Van Stuff

The reset to the hike side cut two ways across the books. The index surfaces stayed calm and balanced through the whole round trip, the protection cheap again and the pin back on stocks, while the metal’s book is loaded for downside and built to push the next leg, not catch it. Crude still owns the loudest, widest book on the board, its magnet stranded in a different era of the contract from where price actually trades.

ES has the calmest book of the four, the option crowd leaning slightly long again with cheap protection and price parked right on the 7545 magnet. The cap is a long way up at 7700 and the floor sits down at 7400, so the whole fight is in the dense interest shelf between the magnet and the cap.

NQ carries the heaviest call-side book of the four and it still ran to the top of its expected week, which is its own kind of risk if Thursday surprises hawkish. The magnet sits at 30490 just under price and the real cap is a different planet up at 32000.

CL owns the loudest, widest book on the screen and the vol on it never came down. The magnet is stranded way up at 83.60 in a different era of the contract, the cap a relic at 101, and down at price the only thing that matters is the heavy interest stacked from 73 up to 81 and the real floor a long way under at 70.72.

GC spent the holiday session falling out the bottom of its own book, price now under the expected low with every option line of consequence sitting overhead. The magnet at 4340 caps every bounce, the heavy interest stacks 4250 to 4400, and the put crowd is leaning hard with the only real floor a long way down at 4000.

Never think you’re smarter than a dumb market. It will get dumber for sure. Cheers Friends.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES opened 7595 Wednesday, tagged 7604, then sold the decision all afternoon down to 7472 and closed 7492 on the lows, value 7535 to 7599 around a 7586 POC. The overnight bought every bit of it back, basing 7530 to 7568 and dragging price to 7558 on the 7555 session POC, back under the 7572 week value floor it lost on the way down. Reclaim 7572 and yesterday’s 7586 POC and the repair runs 7613 the week POC then 7636 the week’s ceiling. Lose 7540 the session floor and 7530 the overnight low and 7492 reopens, then 7472 where yesterday and the week share a low. It sits 7558, a full round trip back to value.

NQ took the worst of it, opening 30526, failing 30545, and sliding to 29923 before closing 29994 near the lows, a hollow session with the 30450 POC stranded up top. The semis dragged it straight back overnight, running 30500 and reclaiming that 30450 POC where it sits 30485 now. Through 30500 the overnight high and 30510 yesterday’s value top, the path opens 30737 the week’s value ceiling and 30820 June’s, with 30915 the week high above. Lose 30400 the session POC and 30335 the floor and 30266 yesterday’s value low catches it, then 30139 last week’s high, 30065 the week and month floor, into 29524 last week’s volume shelf. It sits 30485, back above the line it lost.

CL poked 80 on the Wednesday spike, couldn’t hold it, and closed 75.99 with value 76.18 to 77.54 around a 76.61 POC. The overnight kept leaning, carving a fresh 74.13 low on the peace optimism before settling 75.2, under everything it built and under the 76 week POC. The real volume does not show up again until 80.25 the week’s value top, then the pre-crash shelf at 87.38 last week’s floor and 91.30 the prior-week POC miles overhead. Reclaim 75.62 the session top and 76.18 yesterday’s value low and a repair starts, otherwise lose 74.77 the session floor and 74.13 the overnight bottom and price is into the 73s where almost nothing has traded. It sits 75.2, pinned at the lows.

GC is the wreck of the group, spiking to 4403 Wednesday before the projections flipped it and gold collapsed to 4237, closing 4254 with the 4250 POC built on the way down. The overnight gave a dead-cat push toward 4345 and got sold again, printing a fresh 4257 low and sitting 4269 now, below the 4335 session POC and the 4335 week value floor. Reclaim 4285 the session value low and 4335 and the bounce has a case toward 4361 the week POC and 4364 yesterday’s value top. Lose 4257 the overnight low, with 4254 yesterday’s close and 4237 the session and week low cracks, opening air to 4175 where last week’s volume sits, then 4073 the value base under it. It sits 4269, below every line that mattered.

The Calendar

- 7:30 AM CT, weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed factory read

- 9:00 AM CT, the Leading Index

- 9:30 AM CT, weekly natural gas storage

- 12:00 PM CT, the oil rig count

The Plan

ES:

ES round-tripped the decision and sits 7558 right back on the 7555 session POC, a hair under the 7572 week value floor it lost in the selloff. Reclaim 7572 and yesterday’s 7586 POC and the repair runs 7599 yesterday’s value top, 7613 the week and month POC stacked together, then 7636 the week’s ceiling and 7647 June’s, with 7649 the week high and 7693 the month high the air above that. Hold 7540 the session floor and the dip stays a bounce. Below 7540 fails and 7530 the overnight low goes, then 7492 yesterday’s close and 7472 where yesterday and the week share a low. Under that it opens to 7499 last week’s POC and 7420 last week’s value floor where the prior leg did its work.

NQ:

NQ reclaimed the 30450 Wednesday POC overnight on the back of the chip trade and sits 30485 with the bounce intact as long as it holds there. Through 30500 the overnight high and 30510 Wednesday’s value top, the recovery targets 30695 May’s POC, 30737 the week’s upper value, and 30820 June’s, with 30915 the week high and 31100 the month high the prize above. Hold 30450 and dips stay buyable against the session base. Below 30400 the session POC and 30335 the floor fails, 30266 Wednesday’s value low catches the first leg, then 30139 last week’s high and 30065 where the week and month value bottom out. Under that the air runs to 29524 last week’s high-volume shelf.

CL:

Crude is trading 75.2 under everything, with the 75.62 session top and the 76 week POC the first two lines it has to win back. Reclaim them and 76.18 Wednesday’s value low and the repair argument starts, but the next real volume is stranded way up at 80.25 the week’s upper edge, then 87.38 last week’s floor and 91.30 last week’s POC where the pre-crash shelf sits. Hold 74.77 the session floor and the slide pauses. Lose 74.77 and 74.13 the overnight bottom and there is no profile underneath, just the 73 and 72 round numbers price has not touched in months. Below 72 the next built volume does not arrive until 70 round.

GC:

Gold is the one that broke, trading 4269 with value gone above it, the 4285 session low and the 4335 week floor both lost on the way down. Reclaim 4285 and 4335 the session POC and the bounce has a target at 4361 the week POC, 4364 Wednesday’s value top, then 4388 the week’s high edge and 4403 where Wednesday and the week share a high. Hold 4257 the overnight base and the range holds together. Lose 4257 and 4254 Wednesday’s close and 4237 the session and week low cracks, opening air to 4175 the prior-week volume pocket. Under that it runs to 4103 June’s value floor and 4073 last week’s value base.

The White Van Stuff

The hawkish projections reset every book on the screen. The index surfaces stayed tight and balanced even through the round trip, both sitting right at the top of their expected day with the real caps a long way overhead. Crude’s book is still the loudest by a mile, run below its floor again, while gold spent the night falling clean out the bottom of its own expected range.

ES has a calm, balanced book, the expected day only nine-tenths of a percent wide and price sitting right on the 7564 top of it. The 7545 magnet is the line directly under price, the 7800 cap a different planet overhead, and yesterday’s same-day floor at 7490 now sits below price after the bounce.

NQ‘s book leans heavier on the put side than the index above it, but price still ran to the 30466 top of its expected day overnight. The 30750 same-day cap and the 31000 cap are the lines a breakout aims at, while the 30225 magnet and the 30200 same-day floor stack just beneath price.

CL still owns the loudest book on the board, the magnet parked way up at 83.6 and the cap a different universe at 101. Down at price the lines that matter are the 75.77 same-day floor it just lost overhead and the 74.41 expected low beneath, with 72.74 the last real interest under that.

GC spent the night falling clean out the bottom of its expected day, price 4269 now under both the 4306 expected low and the 4328 magnet that should have caught it. The 4228 same-day floor is the next real line beneath, with the caps stacked overhead at 4383 and 4422.

Trust your prep. Trade your levels. The rest is noise. Don’t come on our stream and complain.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES faded its record close Tuesday, opening 7627, tagging 7636, then selling the whole session to close 7588 on the lows with value 7591 to 7621 around a 7614 POC. The overnight did nothing to fix it, holding a tight 7585 to 7612 band and parking 7593 right on Tuesday’s value floor, under the 7614 POC and the matching week POC overhead. Reclaim 7606 and 7614 and the bounce targets 7621 the value ceiling, 7633 the week’s, then 7647 June’s value top. Lose 7582 where Tuesday’s low sits on the week low and 7553 last week’s high opens the gap, 7509 the ceiling under it, then 7499 last week’s POC. It sits 7593, coiled under value.

NQ took the worst of it Tuesday, dumping from a 30812 open to 30302 and closing 30310 near the lows, a hollow profile with the 30450 POC stranded up top and value 30324 to 30673. The overnight bought it back, basing 30418 to 30584 and reclaiming that 30450 POC where it sits 30461 now. Through 30535 the week’s value base and 30584 the overnight high, the path runs 30673 Tuesday’s value top and the 30695 May POC into the 30850 week shelf. Below 30418 the overnight low and 30302, the Tuesday low stacked on the week low, it thins out fast toward 30139 last week’s high, then 29983 and the 29524 last-week POC where the volume lives. It sits 30461, back on the line it lost.

CL keeps grinding lower, closing Tuesday 76.87 on a 76.0 POC with value 75.53 to 77.05, then carving a fresh 74.59 low overnight before bouncing back to 76.69. That puts it right on Tuesday’s value with the 76.0 POC underneath and the whole pre-deal chart stranded miles overhead. Reclaim 77.05 the ceiling and 78.07 Tuesday’s high and the first repair is on, but the real volume does not show up again until 80.37 the week’s top and 87.38 last week’s floor. Lose 75.50 the week low and 74.59 the overnight bottom and there is no profile underneath, only round numbers nobody has traded in months. It sits 76.69, bouncing inside a chart with no floor built yet.

GC chopped a tight Tuesday, running 4333 to 4376 and closing 4355 with value 4346 to 4368 around a 4359 POC, no trend either way. The overnight tightened it further, holding 4335 to 4355 and sitting 4344 just under Tuesday’s value low with the 4340 week floor right beneath. Reclaim 4359 the POC and 4368 the value high and 4376 Tuesday’s high opens, then 4391 the week high and 4409 last month’s low are the gates that mean something. Lose 4333 where Tuesday and the week share a low and 4284 last week’s value top opens the air, 4231 last week’s close, then the 4175 POC down deep. It sits 4344, the tightest coil on the board.

The Calendar

- 7:30 AM CT, Retail Sales (May), the morning’s real number

- 9:30 AM CT, weekly crude inventories

- 1:00 PM CT, the Fed’s rate decision and fresh projections, dot plot attached

- 1:30 PM CT, FOMC press conference

The Plan

ES:

ES is coiled 7593 under the 7614 stack where Tuesday’s POC and the week POC sit together, the line a record-close fade left it under. Reclaim 7606 the overnight open and 7614, and the repair runs 7621 Tuesday’s value ceiling, 7633 the week’s, then 7647 June’s value top and 7649 the week high, with 7660 May’s POC and 7693 the June high the air above that. Hold 7591 the value floor and the dip stays a coil. Below 7582 fails, the floor Tuesday shares with the week, and the gap opens to 7553 last week’s high, then 7509 the ceiling and 7499 last week’s POC where the prior leg did its business, with 7420 last week’s floor.

NQ:

NQ clawed back the 30450 Tuesday POC overnight after the worst session of the four, sitting 30461 with the bounce intact as long as it holds there. Through 30535 the week’s value base and 30584 the overnight high, the recovery targets 30662 May’s floor, 30673 Tuesday’s ceiling, and the 30695 May POC, with the 30850 week shelf and 30915 high the bigger prize. Hold 30450 and dips stay buyable against the overnight base. Lose 30418 the overnight low and 30302 the week low, and a break drops the floor toward 30139 last week’s high, then 29983 the value high and the 29524 last-week POC where the real volume sits.

CL:

Crude is trying to build a base it has not earned yet, holding 76.69 on the 76.0 Tuesday POC after the overnight probed a fresh 74.59 low and got bought. Reclaim 77.05 the ceiling and 78.07 Tuesday’s high and the repair argument starts, but the next real volume is stranded way up at 80.37 the week’s top, then 87.38 last week’s floor and 91.30 last week’s POC, which tells you the whole story of this collapse, with 92.47 May’s floor the marker above that. Hold 75.53 the value base and the bounce keeps its footing. Lose 75.50 and 74.59 the overnight bottom and there is no chart underneath.

GC:

Gold is wound tighter than anything else on the screen, sitting 4344 just under the 4359 Tuesday POC and the matching week POC, with no trend to lean on either way. Reclaim 4359 and 4368 the value high and 4376 Tuesday’s high comes back, then 4391 the week high and 4409 last month’s low are the gates that turn this chop into a recovery, with 4474 and 4563 the lines far above. Hold 4340 the week’s floor and the range stays intact. Lose 4333 the shared low and 4284 last week’s value top opens the air, then 4231 last week’s close and the 4175 POC where the prior month built its base.

The White Van Stuff

Two charts are dead calm and two are not. The index books are about as quiet as they get going into a Fed day, positioning bullish and the expected moves tight, both pinned mid-cage well under their caps. Crude’s book got run through the floor again with every same-day line it had now overhead, while gold sits glued to its magnet with the cap a hair above, the tightest pin going.

ES has a calm book under a tape that just faded, the whole same-day surface stacked overhead from the 7651 expected high up to the 7700 cap with nothing urgent in between. Under price the 7570 floor is the near shelf, and the 7515 magnet.

NQ‘s book reads the same, bullish and wide, sitting right on its 30450 same-day pivot with the 30765 expected high and the 31000 cap the lines a breakout would aim at. The 30000 put floor and 29975.

CL‘s book is still the loudest of the four, the cap parked way up at 79.82 today and 84.62 the magnet, both a different planet from where price trades. The only line near price is 75.78 where the same-day floor and pivot stack, and below the 73.84 expected low the book thins to nothing.

GC is the most wound-up book on the screen, price glued to its 4333 pivot and 4328 magnet with the 4383 cap a breath overhead and the 4280 expected low the floor that matters. The whole thing is balanced, calls and puts close to even.

New man at the podium. Be safe and have fun out there.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

ES spent Monday grinding the gap higher, opening 7599, running to 7649, and closing 7630 right on the highs with value built 7611 to 7634 around a 7627 POC. The overnight did nothing with it, holding a 7616 to 7634 band and parking price back on that 7627 POC where it sits 7623 now. Above 7634 the overnight top and 7649 the high, the only thing left is 7693 the June high in clean air, because a close on the highs leaves nothing marked overhead. Below 7611 the value floor opens 7598 Monday’s low, and under that it’s a gap down to last week’s 7553 high with nothing in between. Tight range, record close, sitting on the line.

NQ led again Monday, opening 30633 and trending to a 30873 close near the 30915 high, leaving value 30746 to 30910 around a 30855 POC. The overnight poked a fresh high at 30975 then gave it right back, sliding to 30811 where it sits now, back under Monday’s POC. Reclaim 30855 and the breakout’s alive, with 30915 the high and 30975 the overnight top guarding the air up to 31098 June’s ceiling and the 31100 high. Below 30746 the floor cracks and 30633 Monday’s low is next, then it’s thin all the way down to last week’s 30139 high. The overnight already showed you 30975 is where the sellers wait.

CL spent Monday looking like it found a floor, holding 79.80 and closing 81.32 with value packed 80.10 to 80.73 around an 80.56 POC, the 80 line finally acting like a base. The overnight tore it up, opening 80.6 and cutting through 79.80 and the whole pocket down to 76.88 before settling 77.33. It sits 77.54, below everything Monday built with the 76.88 low right underneath and three weeks of stranded value overhead. Reclaim 79.02 today’s ceiling and 80.10 Monday’s floor and there’s a repair argument, otherwise the 80 base is just the latest shelf to flip into resistance. Below 76.88 there’s no profile, only round numbers, because crude hasn’t traded down here in a long time.

GC put in a rejection Monday, opening 4348, pushing to 4391, then failing and closing 4342 below its own value with the 4385 POC stranded up high and the area running 4361 to 4390. The overnight bought it back, basing to 4376 and sitting 4366 now, inside Monday’s range but still under the 4385 POC it couldn’t hold. Reclaim 4385 and 4391 the high comes back into play, with 4409 last month’s low the gate that actually means something above. Lose 4361 the floor and 4340 where today’s volume sits, and 4338 Monday’s low opens the slide toward last week’s 4284 ceiling. Two-way chop with a heavy close, no trend to trust yet.

The Calendar

- 7:15 AM CT, ADP weekly employment read

- 7:30 AM CT, Housing Starts and Building Permits (May), plus Import and Export Prices

- 12:00 PM CT, 20-Year Bond Auction

- 3:30 PM CT, weekly crude inventory, the private read

Quiet board, all of it second-tier. Housing and the import-price read print at 7:30 but neither moves a tape that’s been trading a peace headline for three days. The afternoon crude inventory is the only number with oil’s name on it, and it lands after the cash close, so it’s an overnight problem. Markets are closed Friday for the holiday, so the back half of this week thins out fast.

The Plan

ES:

ES is sitting on the 7627 Monday POC after a record close, parked 7623 inside a value area it never left overnight. Above 7634 the overnight high and Monday’s ceiling, 7649 the high is the last mark before 7693 the June high in open air, because a close on the highs leaves nothing but blue sky above. Hold 7611 the value floor and the read stays long. Below 7611 fails and 7598 Monday’s low is the gate, then a gap down to 7553 last week’s high, 7509 the ceiling under it, and 7499 last week’s POC where the selloff volume sits, with 7486 June’s floor, beneath that. Nothing says sell this yet.

NQ:

NQ tagged a fresh 30975 overnight then slipped back under the 30855 Monday POC, sitting 30811 and handing the breakout crowd a small headache. Reclaim 30855 and the path reopens through 30915 the high and 30975 the overnight top into 31098 June’s ceiling and the 31100 high, all-time-high air above that. Hold 30746 the value floor and the pullback is just noise. Below 30746 fails and 30633 Monday’s low is the gate, then the profile thins out badly toward 30139 last week’s high, 29983 the ceiling under it, and 29524 last week’s POC where the volume actually lives. The overnight already marked 30975 as the line sellers defend.

CL:

Crude looked like it based at 80 on Monday and the overnight proved it was just a ledge, cutting through 79.80 and the whole pocket down to 76.88 where it sits 77.54 now. A bounce has to reclaim 79.02 today’s ceiling and 80.10 Monday’s floor before anyone talks repair, and even then 80.56 the POC and 81.47 the high cap the old base. Above all of it the real volume doesn’t show up again until 87.38 last week’s floor and 91.30 last week’s POC, which tells you how far this fell. Below 76.88 there’s no chart to read, just 76 and 75 and whatever round number the selling stops at.

GC:

Gold pushed to 4391 Monday, couldn’t hold it, and closed 4342 under its own value, the overnight buying it back to 4366 but leaving it stuck below the 4385 POC it failed at. Reclaim 4385 and 4391 the high is back in play, then 4409 last month’s low is the gate that turns chop into a recovery, with 4474 and 4563 the lines far above. Hold 4361 the value floor and the range stays intact. Lose 4361 and 4340 where today’s volume sits, and 4338 Monday’s low opens the air toward 4284 last week’s ceiling, then 4230 the value base and 4175 last week’s POC underneath.

The White Van Stuff

Two different worlds in the books today: the index surfaces are about as calm as they get, positioning bullish and the expected moves tight, while price rides the middle of the cage with the caps a long way overhead. Crude is the opposite, the loudest vol on the board by a mile.

ES has a benign book under a record close, the whole same-day surface stacked overhead from the 7692 expected high up to the 7700 cap with room to run into it. Under price the 7600 interest is the near shelf, and the real magnet down at 7455 is a different conversation entirely.

NQ‘s book reads the same, bullish and roomy, the 31100 same-day cap and the 31309 expected high the lines a breakout aims at. The 30700 interest is the near support under price, with the 29800 magnet the deep pull if the whole thing rolls.

CL got its book run through the floor a second straight night, and now the 80 put floor and the 78.30 expected low both sit overhead as resistance. The only marks left near price are the 77 and 76 interest it’s resting on, and below that the book just ends. Vol this loud and a chart with no bottom means the band is enormous and crude will use every inch.

GC is the tightest pin on the board, price glued to its 4345 magnet with the 4400 cap right overhead and the 4500 same-day cap behind it. Below, the 4283 same-day floor is the line that matters, and the book stays balanced the whole way down. This is a coiled book, not a directional one.

Three charts, three speeds. Only one of them is actually offering a trade this morning, and it’s the one with no floor.

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The Tape

ES closed Friday at 7433 on a 7434 POC with value 7408 to 7443, the kind of coiled session that shows up when everyone knows the weekend holds the answer. The gap did the talking, lifting it into a tight 7518 to 7537 overnight range and parking it on a shelf that means something, last week’s 7524 value floor sitting right on May’s 7529 ceiling. Above 7537 the overnight top, the path opens to 7611 May’s high and then 7624 where last week did its heaviest business. Lose 7508 overnight value and the gap starts filling, 7461 Friday’s high, 7443 the value ceiling, then 7434 the POC back toward the 7408 floor. It sits 7528, pinned to the confluence it gapped into.

NQ led the whole thing again, closing Friday 29650 on a 29660 POC after building value 29501 to 29742. The overnight extended the rip and never gave it back, basing 30204 to 30324 and sitting 30276 in air above everything Friday built. Through 30324 the only real structure left is up at 30536 May’s high and the 30590 last-week POC, the magnet this leg is pointed at. Lose 30204 and the unwind runs 30040 overnight value, 29954 May’s ceiling, then 29760 Friday’s high and the 29660 POC. It sits 30276, holding the top of its overnight base.

CL spent Friday bleeding to an 84.30 close and the weekend finished the job, snapping clean through the whole Friday range and the 82.38 line that was the floor, down to an 80 handle nobody had circled. The overnight built value 79.70 to 81.12 and it sits 80.45, camped on the 80 line with three weeks of higher value stranded overhead. Reclaim 81.12, the top of the overnight, and the first repair is 84.13 Friday’s low, the bottom of the gap. Below 79.70 there is no profile, just air and round numbers, because price hasn’t traded down here in months. It sits 80.45, pinned to 80 with every prior shelf overhead.

GC is the chart that refused to read the room, closing Friday 4232 on a 4218 POC and then ripping the weekend gap straight up through its whole value area to 4359. The overnight based 4321 to 4369 and it sits 4359, clean above Friday’s range with the next real structure up at 4439 the prior-week value base and 4500 its peak-volume line. Above 4369, the overnight peak, 4409 May’s low is the first gate into that prior-week shelf. Lose 4321 the overnight low and 4324 today’s value floor and the gap back to 4257 Friday’s high opens up, then 4239 and the 4218 POC. It sits 4359, holding the top of the overnight.

The Calendar

- 7:30 AM CT, Empire State Manufacturing (June), the first regional read on the month

- 8:15 AM CT, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (May)

- 9:00 AM CT, NAHB Housing Market Index (June)

Light board, all of it second-tier, and none of it moves a tape that just repriced on a weekend headline. The catalyst already happened. Markets are closed Friday for the holiday, so it’s a four-day week and the back half is mostly position management.

The Plan

ES:

ES gapped into the 7525 to 7529 confluence and is holding it, last week’s value floor stacked on May’s ceiling, the same shelf the Friday brief had circled as the line above. Above 7537 the overnight high we target 7611 May’s high, then 7624 last week’s POC where the volume from the prior leg lives, with 7632 last week’s high behind it. Hold 7508 overnight value and dips into the 7518 base are for buying against the gap. Below 7508 fails and the gap fill is on, 7461 Friday’s high first, then 7443 the value ceiling and 7434 the POC, with 7408 Friday’s floor and 7385 May’s value floor the deeper nets.

NQ:

NQ is the cleanest gap on the board, sitting 30276 in air above everything Friday built. Above 30324 the overnight high we target 30536 May’s high, then 30590 last week’s POC and 30751 last week’s value ceiling where the prior leg topped. Hold 30204 the overnight low and the breakout stays intact. Below 30204 fails and 30040 overnight value catches first, then 29954 May’s ceiling, 29760 Friday’s high and the 29660 POC, with 29501 Friday’s floor under it. Thin air built fast unwinds just as fast, so 30204 is the line between a real breakout and a Sunday-night fakeout.

CL:

Crude is in free fall and there’s no profile to argue with, parked 80.45 on the 80 line after the weekend snapped every floor it had. Reclaim 81.12 where the overnight topped and the only repair left is 84.13 Friday’s low, the bottom of the gap, then 84.16 the value base and 84.90 Friday’s POC. Hold under 81 and the path of least resistance stays down, 79.70 the overnight low first, then air, because the chart is blank beneath here until the round numbers catch it. Every prior shelf, 87.38 the week’s value floor, 90.86 last week’s, 92.47 May’s, sits overhead now as resistance, which tells you how far this fell.

GC:

Gold reclaimed a month of damage in one gap, the move carrying it clean over the whole Friday range and back into the prior week’s wreckage at 4359. Above 4369 the overnight high, 4409 May’s low is the first gate, then 4439 last week’s value base and 4500 the prior-week POC, the lines that turn this gap into a real trend change. Hold 4321 the overnight low and the 4324 value base, and the gap stays defended. Below 4324 fails and the fill opens, 4257 Friday’s high first, then 4239 the value ceiling and the 4218 POC, with 4206 Friday’s floor underneath. One gap doesn’t undo a month of selling, so I’d rather buy 4369 breaking than guess at 4321 holding into the cash open.

The White Van Stuff

One headline reset every options book overnight. The index surfaces that were leaning defensive on Friday now sit mostly below price with their caps overhead, crude’s book got run straight through the bottom, and gold blew past its same-day lid into open road.

ES pushed right up to its 7550 cap overnight and is pressing it, with the 7500 to 7525 interest cluster that capped it on the way down now flipped to support underneath. The 7375 magnet and the 7300 put floor are a long way down if this gap ever fails. The book has no real argument above 7550 until the round number.

NQ blew clean through the 30000 lid that was its cap, its same-day cap, and its expected high all stacked on the round number, and it’s now in the open air above. 30000 flips to the pivot, the line that decides whether the breakout holds. The next interest overhead is the 30200 to 30500 ladder, thin enough that the pull higher is real.

CL ran through its entire surface on the way down and is resting under all of it, with the 83 same-day floor and the 85 put floor both flipped overhead into resistance. The only line near price is the 80 interest it’s sitting on, and below that the book runs out. Vol here is the loudest on the board by a mile, so the band is enormous and crude will use all of it.

GC pushed above its same-day lid and is pressing the 4400 cap, with the 4340 to 4350 cluster, the old ceiling, flipped underneath as the first support. There’s open road from here to 4400 and then nothing on the book above it. The 4200 floor is a different planet now.

Taking on a challenge is a lot like riding a horse... If you're comfortable while you're doing it, you're probably doing it wrong. Let’s have some fun Today.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Week That Was

ES spent the week clawing back the prior week’s losses, dipped to 7247 early, then built its value back up at 7415 and closed at 7433. The week POC stacks right on the 7420 May POC, which is the shelf the dip-buyers chose to defend. First close back in striking distance of the value it lost, but the bounce stalled the second it hit the old floor.

NQ was the V. It dipped to 28227 early, then climbed back through all of the prior week’s damage and closed 29677, above the 29476 week VAH and a stone’s throw from the 29848 week high. It is the strongest of the four, the one the buyers chased hardest. The short crowd that pressed the lows got run over the whole way up.

CL was the holdout that finally cracked. It ran the early week near 92, then unwound the entire back half on the agreement headline and closed 84.30, sitting on the 84.13 week low with the whole week’s volume stranded up at 91.30. The war premium that held it up for three months is coming out a barrel at a time.

GC flushed to a fresh low at 4072 then clawed back to close 4231, holding above the 4175 week POC. The freefall paused, but the metal is still under every bit of May’s value and trading straight inverse to the ten-year. It is a rates bet now, nothing more, and it is waiting on Wednesday like everyone else.

Cross-asset read: One story did all of it, and it pointed the opposite way from last week. Soft inflation and a draft to bring the barrels back flipped the same dominoes in reverse, stocks ripped and the safe-haven bid kept bleeding out of gold because rising rates are the one thing it cannot fight. Crude got monetized as the supply-is-coming-back trade while the indices got bought as the war-risk-is-leaving trade. The equities recovered on rates, the metal sold on rates, and the only one in true free-fall is the contract with a signature pointed at its throat.

Positioning (data through midweek): Read the latest print as the book going into the bounce, not after it. The trader crowd fought the entire melt-up from the short side and was still leaning that way into the flush, and this V is exactly what a stranded short book does when it has to cover into strength. The fuel that drove the rip is mostly spent now, but a book that is still short is two-sided ammunition into Wednesday either way.

Vol: The fear gauge is back near the lows. The downside protection that paid on the way down got sold into the recovery, so it is cheap again right at the highs going into a new chair’s first meeting. Crude vol never came down and gold vol is set to expand the move, not dampen it. A market positioned for calm right into the one event that can break it is the part that bites. Size for a two-sided Wednesday.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. FOMC Wednesday 1:00 PM CT. A brand new chair’s first meeting and the override on every chart. No move is the base case, so the projections and the press conference are the whole event. Mark your levels cold and do not try to predict the man.

2. NQ round-tripped the flush. It closed back above the 29476 week VAH and never looked back. While it holds that line the path points at the 29848 week high and the broken value overhead. Lose 29240 and the V starts to look like a lower high instead.

3. ES stalled at value. The bounce ran straight into the 7415 week POC stacked on the May POC and stopped cold. Above 7470 the recovery has room toward the broken 7524 value. Under 7385 the week gets heavy in a hurry.

4. Crude is in free-fall on the agreement. It closed on the 84.13 week low with the whole week’s volume stranded overhead and nothing recent underneath. A signed deal gaps it lower on the open. The only thing that reverses it fast is the talks falling apart.

5. Gold is a pure rates bet. It bounced off the 4072 flush low but everything from May is overhead supply. Wednesday moves it as hard as it moves the indices. 4175 holds the bounce, 4284 gets it back into the broken range.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES dug out of the hole all week and ran the bounce straight into the 7415 week POC, where the May POC sits on the same tick, and stalled. Reclaim 7443 Friday VAH and 7470 week VAH and the recovery has room to the 7491 week high, then the broken 7524 prior week value, with the 7624 prior week POC the wall where the whole melt-up’s volume now sits as supply. Lose 7385 June VAL and the week turns heavy again, with 7366 the Friday low and 7338 May VAL the first real shelf under it. Below 7338 the air opens to 7326 week VAL, then 7247 week low, and 7199 May low is where the month actually built its volume.

NQ:

NQ acted like nothing happened. It reclaimed the 29476 week VAH on the way back up and closed leaning on the 29760 Friday high. Hold 29476 and the 29848 week high is the gate, and taking it opens the 29948 prior week VAL and the long climb back to the 30590 prior week POC, the floor that broke and is a ceiling now. Lose 29240 May POC and the bounce loses its footing, with 28974 the prior week low, then 28600 week POC where this week built its base. Below 28600 the 28465 week VAL and 28337 May VAL stack close, and losing them reopens the vacuum to the 27614 May low. There is almost nothing between the week base and the May value.

CL:

Crude closed the week dead on the 84.13 low with the entire week’s volume stranded up at the 91.30 POC, which means price fell clean out of its own value and never looked back. The reclaim that matters first is 86.35, the May low that held all last month and is overhead resistance now, then 87.38 week VAL gets it back into the week’s range. Above that the 90.86 prior week VAL and the 91.30 week POC are the distant overhead and the bounce is pure headline. Lose 84.13 and there is no recent volume to lean on, it is price discovery down to the spring’s old value at 82.58 April VAL, and below there the 77.21 April low is the only structure left.

GC:

Gold bounced off the 4072 flush low and is hanging just above the 4175 week POC, the line that defines whether the bounce has legs. Reclaim 4256 Friday high and 4284 week VAH and the next step is 4338, the prior week low that is resistance now, then 4439 prior week VAL into the 4500 prior week POC and 4532 May POC, where the long crowd keeps trimming every rally. Lose 4175 and the 4073 week low and flush low come right back, and below there it is fresh price discovery with no volume to catch it.

The White Van Stuff

The book flipped back this week. The crowd that loaded downside protection on the selloff dumped it into the rally, so the pin is back on stocks and the amplifier got switched off on the indices. It stayed on for crude, where the book is still loaded for downside and every leg lower greases the next.

ES is back inside the long-side pin it gave back on the flush, with the book leaning slightly to the call side and protection cheap again. The cap is up at 7550, the magnet sits below at 7360, and price is parked in the dense heavy-interest shelf between them. That is a setup that wants to grind sideways, right up until Wednesday’s print blows the pin apart.

NQ already cleared the structural call line it lost on the flush, so the overhead that matters now is the old value shelf up at 30200 to 30500 and the expected high near 30112. The magnet still sits way down at 28950, which tells you how far value ran from price on the V. It is the most call-heavy book of the four, and that is its own kind of risk into a hawkish surprise.

Crude is still trading with the amplifier on, the book loaded for downside and the vol fattest on the board. It lost the 85 floor and there is nothing but heavy-interest air down to the 82 expected low. The 91 magnet is a different zip code now, which is exactly what a contract in free-fall looks like on the book. Do not trust a single poke through either edge with vol this fat.

Gold is pinned under a stack of heavy interest from 4250 up to 4300, with the magnet at 4345 capping every bounce. The book is still tilted to the put side and the long crowd keeps feeding rallies into that 4345 line. The floor is a long way down at 4000, so the whole fight is in this tight band at the lows.

The protection is cheap again, the book is long again, and the calendar has a brand new chair running his first meeting on Wednesday. There is a line from Rounders that fits the week. If you can’t spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker. Mark your levels and know which side of the table you SHOULD be sitting on. Personally? My vibes going into this week are as follows:

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick