The Week That Was

The long end of the bond market ran the whole show. The thirty-year printed its highest yield since 2007 on Tuesday, the national debt crossed forty trillion, and the indexes bled for four straight sessions while the Treasury stepped in to double its long-term buybacks. By Friday yields had stopped climbing and everything on the board bounced at once. Crude put in its second straight up week as Washington moved from airstrikes to open economic warfare on Iran, with the actual sanctions package due Monday. Gold got flushed into the 4390s midweek, reversed the whole thing in a day, and finished at its highest price in three months on the weaker dollar and the debt math.

ES opened the week at 7803 and closed Friday at 7691.75, with all the damage done Tuesday through Thursday. The two-week shelf both prior weeks built near 7770 gave way in one session and price never came back to it. The week put its volume at 7725.50 and closed below it, resting on its own value floor at 7682.75.

NQ opened at 30219.25, tagged 30286.75 Monday, and closed Friday at 29396.25 after a five-session slide that bottomed at 29202.50 Thursday. The week did its business at 29600 and price finished under it, standing on a floor where the week’s 29311.50, July’s 29300 POC, and August’s 29295.25 all landed together.

CL rolled to the new front contract midweek, so every crude number in this brief is post-roll, read them fresh. On the new contract it opened the week at 82.16, ran to 87.46, and closed at 86.65, dead on its own week POC at 86.60. Second straight up week, and unlike the last one it closed on top of the pile instead of under it.

GC opened the week at 4450.90, got flushed to 4392.30 Tuesday, and closed Friday at 4674.70 after printing 4690.30 on the high. The week’s volume sits way back at 4549 and price finished nowhere near it. It ended the week above every structure on the chart except its own Friday high.

Cross-asset read: Last week the indexes closed on top of their volume while crude and gold closed under theirs. This week the split flipped sides: ES and NQ finished below the value they built, the commodities finished sitting on or above it. Four charts swapped ends of the same trade in five sessions.

Positioning (August 18 data): The trader crowd on the S&P flipped net long at the top two weeks ago after leaning against the rally all summer, and by Tuesday it had dumped the longs and gone back to flat-short. The Nasdaq crowd finally collected on its short lean and covered most of it into the slide. Gold’s long crowd sits on about 220,000 contracts and got the week it was built for, while the crude crowd is carrying less than thirty thousand into the second up week in a row.

Vol: VIX closed at 15.13, up on the week even after Friday’s bounce knocked it back. Protection is still cheap for a week with this much on the schedule.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Wednesday, both ends of it. The inflation print at 7:30 reprices September in the morning and Nvidia reprices the growth trade after the close. If those two disagree, Thursday gets violent.

2. The 29300 shelf on NQ. The week’s value floor, July’s POC, and August’s value floor all stacked together, and Friday’s bounce started there. Everything above it is repair. Everything below it is a broken month.

3. The auctions. Two-year Tuesday, five-year Wednesday, seven-year Thursday, the first coupon slate since the long bond cracked and the Treasury started buying back its own paper. Weak takedowns restart the whole problem.

4. The Friday keynote. The new chair has spent his first summer saying as little as possible, and September is priced at about one in three. A first Jackson Hole speech is the one stage where even saying nothing moves markets.

5. Crude with the package pending. The sanctions detail lands Monday and crude opens tonight parked at 86.65, right on the shelf that decides its week. Tanker traffic through the lane is still running at a fifth of normal.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES goes into the week standing on 7682.75, its own value floor, with Friday’s 7684.50 floor printed right on top of it. That is the trigger. Hold it and the repair work reads 7700 Friday’s value ceiling, 7713.75 where August bottoms its value, then 7725.50 the week POC, the line my whole lean hangs on. Over 7725.50 the stack thickens: 7743.50 last week’s floor sitting against 7745.75 the week’s ceiling, 7770 August POC, 7805.25 last week’s value top, and 7838.50 the August high to finish it. Lose 7682.75 and the first stop is 7658.75 the week low, and under that the chart goes hollow: 7627.25 July’s high, 7615 July’s value ceiling, and then nothing with real volume until 7546 July POC.

NQ:

NQ closed at 29396.25 with a three-timeframe floor directly underneath: 29311.50 the week’s value floor, 29300 July POC, 29295.25 August’s value floor, one shelf wearing three names. That shelf is the trigger. Hold it and the repair runs 29534.25 last week’s floor, 29600 the week POC, then 29701 the week’s value ceiling into 29760, where August and last week put their POCs on the same tick. Through 29760 the air opens to 29932 August’s value ceiling, 30286.75 the week high, then July’s 30311 ceiling and 30356.50 high, the pair still capping everything. Lose the shelf and 29202.50 the week low is the only thing left, and below that the chart is empty to 28457.75 July’s value floor and 28313.25 the August low.

CL:

Crude closed at 86.65 sitting on 86.60, where the week and August share a POC, and that shelf is the trigger. Above it the room is thin: 87.18 Friday’s value ceiling, 87.39 the week’s, then 87.46 where the week topped with August’s ceiling printed on the same price, and 88.07 the July high with nothing but open air past it. Below 86.60 the first catch is 86.13 Friday’s low, then 85.08 July’s value ceiling and 84.37 the week’s floor. Lose 84.37 and it falls into 82.31 July POC with last week’s 82.33 high right on it, the gate for the whole rally. Under the gate it reads 81.35 the week low and 80.82 August’s value floor, with nothing else until 76.11 July’s floor.

GC:

Gold is in open air. It closed Friday at 4674.70 with exactly two prints above it on the whole chart, 4676.30 Friday’s value ceiling and 4690.30 the week high, and past those there is nothing but whatever it builds next. The line underneath is 4640.90, where August tops its value, with Friday’s 4640 volume printed on it, and that is the trigger. Hold it and the discovery continues. Lose it and the steps down read 4629.80 Friday’s floor, 4566 the week’s value ceiling, 4549 the week POC, then 4502.40, the top of the old run and the gate for the whole move. Under the gate the unwind runs 4450 where last week and August share a POC, 4405.50 the week’s floor on last week’s 4403.70, and 4392.30 the week low, with 4253.20 the July high the last thing on the board.

The White Van Stuff

The books that spent two weeks pinned at the top of their yearly range let go. The S&P book unwound to the bottom half of its year and the tech book is near the floor of its own, while the weight moved to the other side of the board: gold’s book is up near the top of its year and energy sits heavy. Nothing on the equity side is pinned going into the report.

ES: The book followed price down: the cap that sat at 7900 all month is 7800 now, the floor is 7600, and the magnet at 7725 lands square on the week POC, options and structure agreeing on one line. Price closed at 7691.75, under the magnet, with the band running 7624.60 to 7750.90.

NQ: The tech book hollowed out on the way down: the cap fell to 30000 with the expected top printed on it at 29985.24, the magnet sits overhead at 29500, and below 28950 there is one line at 28500 before the 28000 floor. Price closed at 29396.25, below the magnet.

CL: Crude’s book is the only one leaning bullish outright: the heaviest interest stacks 86.50 through 88 right on top of spot, the cap is 90, and the band runs 84.23 to 89.05. The magnet at 80.75 is a leftover from the price crude quit trading two weeks ago. It closed at 86.65, inside the heavy stack.

GC: Gold’s book chased harder than anything on the board: the cap moved from 4510 to 4750 in one week and the interest ladder rebuilt itself 4575 through 4725 around spot. The 4340 magnet and the 3900 floor have not caught up and mean nothing this week. Price closed at 4674.70, pressed against the 4675 to 4700 cluster.

Stops? Where we’re going, we don’t need stops.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

Two inflation prints landed Tuesday and Wednesday and neither one was hot, which took a September hike from a coin flip down to about one in three, and the S&P used it to clear 7,800 for the first time. Then Friday the retail number came in at down six tenths against a forecast for a small gain, and the rally stopped right there. Crude ran about five percent on renewed pressure over the Strait of Hormuz, so the one chart nobody wanted to own two weeks ago turned into the best trade on the board. Gold went to 4502.40 Wednesday, found out what air smells like, and gave most of it back. The Russell printed a fresh record Friday while the Nasdaq spent the day going nowhere.

ES opened the week at 7773 and closed Friday at 7805.50, and in between it printed 7838.50, the highest price the contract has traded. Value settled at 7773.75, sitting almost exactly on last week’s 7765.75, so two weeks running the market did its business in the same handle. Friday closed dead on 7805.25, the ceiling the week built.

NQ opened at 29805.50 and closed Friday at 30144.25, and it spent the week doing the one thing last week’s plan asked for: it went back and cleaned up the 30074 print nobody had touched. The high is 30280.50 and it went in Friday, which leaves July’s 30311 ceiling and 30356.50 high as the only two things overhead. Value built at 29760, right on top of last week’s 29750, and price closed nowhere near it.

CL opened at 79.73 and closed at 82.40 after tagging 83.62, the best week crude has had since the spring. The odd part is where the volume went. The week POC printed 83.19, above where price finished, and August’s POC printed there too, so the market built its value at the top of the range and then closed under it.

GC opened at 4387.70, ran to 4502.40 midweek, and closed at 4431.30, which is a gain on the week and does not feel like one. Value came in at 4450, above the close, the same shape crude drew. Friday held a tight range from 4427.20 to 4454.80 and finished at 4431.30, right underneath its own value floor at 4432.30.

Positioning (August 11 data): The trader crowd on the S&P finally quit, adding almost 17,000 longs and covering better than 12,000 shorts to go net long after weeks of leaning against the rally. The Nasdaq crowd did the opposite and put on another 9,200 shorts. Gold’s long crowd added 26,000 contracts at the highs while the crude crowd was cutting longs into the best week it has had all summer.

Vol: VIX closed at 14.25, lower again. Protection is the cheapest it has been all month going into a week whose only scheduled event is a set of minutes.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Wednesday at 1:00. Two cool prints already knocked September down to about one in three. The minutes tell you how close the argument actually got, and that is the whole week in one release.

2. NQ 30311 and 30356.50. July’s value ceiling with July’s high stacked right behind it. NQ cleaned up the 30074 poor high last week, and this pair is the only structure left between price and open air.

3. ES 7773.75 on 7765.75. Two weeks of volume in one handle. Holds and the record is a base. Loses and the whole thing was a blowoff that took two weeks to admit it.

4. Crude’s own 83.19. The week put its volume above where it closed. Reclaim it and the move is accepted. Fail that number and the whole rally reads as a retrace inside a broken market.

5. The retail slate. Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s and Walmart all report onto a consumer number that just fell the most in over a year. Four chances for somebody to say out loud what Friday’s data already said.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES has built two straight weeks of volume on the same handle, 7773.75 this week sitting right on top of 7765.75 last week, and that stack is the whole plan. Over that stack the map runs 7797 Friday’s value floor, 7805.25 where the week topped its value, with Friday’s 7805.50 close right on it, then 7813 where last week capped its value and 7820.25 last week’s high. Take out 7830.75 Friday’s high and 7838.50 is the record, with nothing overhead but whatever gets built up there. Below 7773.75 the first catch is 7743.50, the floor of the week’s build. Lose 7724.25, where last week’s value bottomed, with August’s 7724.75 sitting right on it, and the two-week shelf is gone. Under that there is a real gap before 7627.25 July’s high and 7615 July’s value ceiling, with 7546 July POC where the month put its actual volume.

NQ:

NQ did what last week’s plan asked and went back for the 30074 print it left hanging, then kept going to 30280.50 Friday. The line now is 30105.25, where the week topped its value, and Friday closed above it. Hold there and the only structure left is 30311 July’s value ceiling with 30356.50 July’s high behind it, and above that pair there is nothing on the chart at all. Below 30105.25 the first catch is 30067.25, where August tops its value. Lose that and the drop runs to 29760 week POC and 29750 last week’s POC, the same handle two weeks running and the gate for this entire read. Under 29750 it steps 29534.25, the week’s own floor, then 29467 where last week’s value bottomed, with August’s 29471.75 stacked on it, then air down to 29300 July POC and 28457.75 July’s value floor.

CL:

Crude had its best week of the summer and still closed under its own volume. 83.19 is the week POC and August’s POC on the same price, and Friday finished at 82.40, underneath it. Reclaim 83.19 and the move gets accepted, with 83.34 the week’s ceiling, 83.45 August’s, and 83.62 the week high right above it. Clear that shelf and 84.50 July’s POC is the real target, then 88.48 July’s value ceiling and 93.51 the July high a long way behind it. Fail at 83.19 and the first catch is 81.33, the floor the week drew, then 79.17 the week low and 78.12 where last week capped out. Lose 77.04, where August’s value bottoms on top of July’s 77.03, and the whole rally was a retrace, with 75.75 last week’s POC and 74.44 last week’s low underneath.

GC:

Gold made the high of the run at 4502.40 and spent the back half of the week handing it back, and it closed under its own volume too. 4450 is the week POC and the line that decides whether the run is still a run. Over 4450, the number 4460.80 caps what the week built, then 4502.40 where the week topped, with August’s 4502.70 ceiling right there with it, and past it there is no structure at all. Below 4450 the first step is 4435, Friday’s volume, then 4432.30 its value floor, which price closed just underneath. Lose 4403.70, the floor the week set, and 4375 the week low is the gate. Under 4375 it runs 4363.60, last week’s ceiling, then air down to 4304.70 where August bottoms its value and 4301 where last week put its POC, with 4253.20 July’s high the last thing on the board.

The White Van Stuff

The equity books are back at the top of their one-year range, the S&P near the ninetieth percentile and the tracking book on tech at ninety-seven, which is the setup that pins price until something big enough shows up to unpin it. The long end carries the opposite, sitting at the very bottom of its own year. Energy is stacked as heavy as equities while the metals books are dead center, so gold is still running on buying rather than positioning.

ES: The structural cap on ES is 7800 and price closed above it Friday, so the book got run over on the way to the record. Overhead the interest stacks 7825, 7850 and 7875 into the 7900 line. Underneath, the magnet at 7745 sits right on the bottom of the expected band.

NQ: The whole tech book is stacked overhead. Every heavy line but two sits above Friday’s close, running 30250, 30400 and 30500 into a shelf from 30600 up to 30800, with the cap parked at 31000. Below price there is 30100, 30000, the magnet at 29890, and then nothing until 28000.

CL: Crude closed inside the densest part of its own book, with 82, 82.50 and 83 all sitting within reach of the settle. The ladder above runs 83.50, 84, 85 and 86 with no gap anywhere in the stack, and the cap is still 90. The magnet is 80.50.

GC: Gold’s cap is 4510 and the week high stopped underneath it, and the book has not moved the number since. Overhead the lines run 4450, 4480, 4525 and 4550. The magnet is way down at 4340, below everything the week traded, and the 3900 floor is a leftover from a different price.

If you use 45-minute candles, feel free to yell at me in the chat this week. I am man; I’m 40.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

Monday opened the month with a rip and never really gave it back. Friday’s jobs report showed the economy lost 23,000 of them in July with unemployment at 4.1%, and the tape took that as good news, because a labor market going backwards makes it a lot harder to argue for another hike in September. Crude went the other direction all week after Washington called off the strikes on Iran and started talking about opening the shipping lane, and the war premium came out of the barrel in about two sessions. Gold ignored every bit of it and kept making highs anyway. VIX finished at 14.90.

ES opened the week at 7550 and closed Friday at 7778.25, spending Wednesday through Friday building value in a band it never lost. Value for the week settled at 7765.75 and the whole build sits above July’s high, so the entire prior month is underneath price now. Friday was a tight rotation inside 7743.50 to 7787.

NQ opened at 28565 and closed Friday at 29834, and the whole move happened Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday tagged 30074 and nothing has been back there since, which leaves a poor high sitting up top and July’s 30356.50 waiting behind it. Value for the week built at 29750 and Friday closed on the right side of it.

CL opened the week at 80.10, got taken apart Tuesday when the strike got called off, and bottomed at 74.44 Wednesday before crawling back. The week put its volume way down at 75.75 while Friday’s value rebuilt up at 77.54 to 78.44, so the recovery is real and it is standing on thin ground. It trades 78.72 tonight, back inside July’s value.

GC opened the week at 4083.40 and closed Friday at 4403.10 after tagging 4432.40. Value for the week centered at 4301 with a value area running from 4090.30 to 4363.60, which is what a market in full price discovery looks like on a profile. Friday built a tight shelf at 4393.30 to 4416.70 and it opened this week right back on it.

Cross-asset read: Equities and gold ran together all week, which means the market bought the growth story and the debasement story at the same time and did not feel weird about it. Crude was the only one of the four pricing a calmer world. Three charts at or near records and the fourth sitting back inside last month’s value is not a set of prices that all stay right.

Positioning (August 4 data): The trader crowd went into last week’s rip net short on both indexes, and on the Nasdaq they stacked on more shorts while barely touching the long side. Anybody leaning against this tape has been getting carried out. There is still fuel in that if it keeps running.

Vol: VIX closed at 14.90. That is priced for a quiet week, and last week’s range on all four of these says otherwise.

The Calendar

Monday: Bill auctions, nothing else. Light day.

Tuesday: NFIB small business at 5:00 AM CT, existing home sales at 9:00 AM CT, 3-year note auction at 12:00 PM CT.

Wednesday: CPI at 7:30 AM CT. Crude inventories at 9:30 AM CT, 10-year auction at 12:00 PM CT.

Thursday: PPI and jobless claims at 7:30 AM CT, Hammack and Barkin speak midday, 30-year auction at 12:00 PM CT. Applied Materials reports after the close.

Friday: Retail sales at 7:30 AM CT, Michigan sentiment at 9:00 AM CT.

No big tech reports this week. Wednesday 7:30 is the one that reprices everything.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. CPI Wednesday. The whole week is a coin flip until this lands. Every level below is a plan, not a prediction.

2. NQ 30074. Wednesday’s high, untouched for two sessions, and it went in without a taper. Poor highs get revisited before they get respected. July’s 30356.50 is the one behind it.

3. ES 7724.25. The floor of last week’s build. Everything above it is a market that broke out of July and held. Below it is a market that faded a breakout, and those two read very differently on Thursday morning.

4. CL 77.03. July’s value low. The bounce off 74.44 is either a real base or a dead-cat inside a broken market, and this is the line that answers it.

5. Gold’s 4301. Where the week did its business. Price is well above it and price discovery moves fast in both directions. Nothing structural until it gets back there.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES spent three sessions building a shelf and closed the week standing on top of it. 7765.75 is where the week did its business and the line the whole plan hangs on. Above it the first stop is 7787 Friday’s high, then 7813 week VAH, then 7820.25 the week high where the auction quit. Clear 7820.25 and there is nothing overhead but price discovery, because July’s whole range is underneath. Below 7765.75 the first catch is 7761 Friday VAL, then 7743.50 Friday’s low. Lose 7724.25 week VAL and the shelf is gone, and the slide runs into 7627.25 July’s high and 7615 July VAH stacked on top of each other. Under those two the real volume is at 7546 July POC, with 7541 the prior week’s high stacked right underneath it.

NQ:

NQ did all its work Monday and Tuesday and has been sitting still ever since. 29750 is the week’s volume and Friday closed above it. Above there 29960.25 week VAH is the first cap, then 30074, the high nobody has been back to since Wednesday. That print has no taper and no excess on it, so treat it as a magnet before you treat it as a wall. Clear it and 30311 July VAH and 30356.50 July’s high are the next two. Below 29750 fails and 29690 Friday VAL catches the first leg, then 29564.25 Friday’s low. Lose 29467 week VAL and there is air underneath down to 29300 July POC, then 28726 the prior week’s high and 28457.75 July VAL where the real volume sits.

CL:

Crude got taken apart Tuesday and has been rebuilding ever since, and it goes into the week standing on 78.12, last week’s value high. Above 78.12 it works to 78.50 Friday’s high, then 80.65 the week high where the breakdown started. Through 80.65 and the real target is 82.18 prior week VAL, then 84.50, where both July and the prior week parked their POC. Below 78.12 fails and 77.54 Friday VAL is the first catch, then 77.03 July’s value low. Lose 77.03 and 75.75 week POC is the magnet, with 74.73 week VAL and 74.44 the week low underneath it.

GC:

Gold is in price discovery and there is nothing above it except the number it prints next. 4363.60 is last week’s value high and the line that keeps this thing vertical. Above it Friday’s 4416.70 value high is the first shelf, then 4432.40, the week’s high and the record. Over 4432.40 there is no structure at all, only whatever the auction decides to build up there. Below 4363.60 fails and 4301 week POC is where the volume actually sits. Under 4301 it gets fast, because the week’s value area ran all the way down to 4090.30 with almost nothing in between, and the first real structure is 4253.20 July’s high, then 4148.70 July VAH.

The White Van Stuff

The book on the S&P is sitting at the top of its one-year range and the Nasdaq is not far behind it, so positioning is stacked heavy enough to pin these things until something big enough shows up to move them. Bonds are carrying almost none of that, down near the bottom of the year. Gold, silver and crude are all sitting mid-range, which means the metals move is running on actual buying instead of positioning.

ES: The cap is way up at 7900 and the interest between here and there is stacked thick, so the path higher is heavy without being blocked. Underneath, the book thins out fast. The next real shelf below price is the magnet at 7605.

NQ: The put floor is 29750, which is exactly where it closed the week, so the whole book is balanced on the line price is standing on. The cap is far away at 31000 and the interest thins out badly above 30250. Below 29750 the next real shelf is 29200.

CL: Crude is parked right on its magnet at 78.50, which is the most honest thing on the chart tonight. The band runs 74.34 to 79.82 and the cap is still up at 85, so the book has not written off a move back up. The floor is 74.

GC: The cap is 4510 and price is already inside reach of it, which tells you how fast this move outran its own book. The floor at 3900 is a leftover from a different price and does nothing this week. The live line underneath is the magnet at 4340.

Let’s work the problem, people.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

Two halves that never met each other. Monday and Tuesday crude handed back everything the Strait of Hormuz scare had put into it, printing 77.78 by Tuesday afternoon, and equities got no credit for it because the long end would not stop selling. Wednesday the rate decision came in as a hold at 3.50 to 3.75 with three people dissenting in favor of raising, the thirty-year printed its highest yield since 2007, and both indexes came apart, NQ down to 27201.50 and ES to 7324. Then Microsoft cleared a hundred billion on the cloud business and put in the biggest single day in company history, Amazon backed it up Thursday night, and by Friday the entire drawdown was gone. Apple was the one exception, warning on supply and falling out of the five trillion club on the same tape that was celebrating everybody else.

ES opened the week at 7507.75 and closed Friday at 7520.25, which after a round trip down to 7324 and back is a whole lot of nothing. The week built its volume at 7469.50, July’s value bottomed at 7469.25, and Friday’s own VAL landed at 7469.75. Three timeframes agreeing on the same price is not a coincidence, that is the line.

NQ opened at 28590.50 and closed Friday at 28402.75, down about two thirds of a percent and still the worst chart of the four. It printed 27201.50 Wednesday, the lowest number on the board since June, took the whole week’s damage back in two sessions, then stalled and closed under 28446.50, the value floor built one week earlier. The week POC sits way down at 28050, so price and volume are not in the same neighborhood yet.

CL opened the week already gapped under the prior Friday’s 89.76 settle, bled to 77.78 by Tuesday, and closed at 84.77. The week POC printed 84.50, July’s POC printed 84.50, and the week before that stacked at 84.38. Crude spent a month running to 93.50 and falling to 67 and the volume never once left the mid 84s.

GC opened at 4145.30 and closed Friday at 4107.70, down about a percent, and it did it while gold rolled into the December contract, so every number on the chart reset higher. Last week’s levels are dead, use these. On the new contract Friday, the week, and July all put their POC at 4102, and price closed sitting on it.

Cross-asset read: The trade that ran all of July finally broke. Crude fell every day of the front half and equities did not care, which means the tape has quit pricing oil as the inflation input and gone back to trading company results. What is underneath both indexes now is the long end of the bond market, and that is what took them apart Wednesday.

Positioning (July 28 data): The trader crowd on the S&P covered a chunk of what it had on and went into the drop leaning short by only about 3,900. The Nasdaq crowd did the opposite and pushed its short lean past 11,000, so whoever added there got run over Thursday and Friday. Crude’s long crowd came down to roughly 32,200 from north of 42,000, and gold’s long crowd is still sitting on 174,000 net long with nothing at all to show for it.

Vol: VIX closed Friday at 15.99 after closing the week prior at 18.58. Everything bought for protection into Wednesday got dumped back out on the way to the weekend.

The Calendar

All times CT.

Monday, August 3

- 8:45 S&P Global manufacturing, final for July

- 9:00 ISM manufacturing for July, construction spending

- Palantir reports after the close

Tuesday, August 4

- AMD and Eli Lilly report after the close, and SpaceX files its first quarter as a public company

Thursday, August 6

- 7:30 Jobless claims, second quarter productivity and unit labor costs

Friday, August 7

- 7:30 Nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate for July

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Friday at 7:30. The number penciled in is 83,000 with unemployment at 4.3%. For three years a big print was the good news and it is not anymore, because the case being argued is a hike and futures have September at better than a coin flip.

2. 7469 on ES. Week POC, July’s VAL, and Friday’s VAL all landed on the same price. Above it the repair keeps working. Below it and Thursday and Friday were a bounce inside a broken week.

3. Crude at 84.50. Three weekly profiles in a row have stacked their volume in the same handle. The output answer comes out over the weekend and crude opens tonight on it, and whichever side of 84.50 it settles on is where it spends the week.

4. NQ 28446. The prior week’s floor of value. NQ traded above it Friday and closed back under, so it has one failure on the board already. It needs a close over it before the 28810 magnet means anything.

5. The long end. The thirty-year printed its highest yield since 2007 on Wednesday and the tape spent the next two sessions buying long-duration tech anyway. One of those two is wrong and they do not usually stay wrong together for long.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES closed the week on the cleanest confluence on any of my four charts. 7469.50 is the week POC, July’s value bottomed at 7469.25, and Friday’s VAL came in at 7469.75. Above that shelf the repair keeps going and the first real work is 7486 week VAH, then 7541 where the week topped out, then 7546, where the prior week and July both stacked their POC. Clear 7546 and it opens 7563.50 prior week high, 7608 July’s value ceiling, and 7632 July’s high, with 7693.75 June’s high the last one on the board. Lose 7469 and 7455.25, prior week VAL, is the first catch, then 7440 June’s POC, which is the gate. Under 7440 the steps are 7427.50 Friday’s low, 7411.75 prior week low, and 7403.50 the week’s VAL, and below that the record thins out to 7364.75 June’s value floor and 7324, the low July and the week share.

NQ:

NQ is the one that still has to prove it. 28446.50, the value floor the prior week built, is the line, and Friday traded above it and closed back under at 28402.75. Reclaim it and hold and the work overhead reads 28726 Friday’s high, then 28763.20 the week’s high, then 28810, where the prior week stacked its POC and where the volume actually sits. Over that it is 29203 prior week VAH, 29247.80 June’s VAL, and 29364.80 prior week high, with 29600 July’s POC the number nobody is talking about yet. Lose 28376.20 July’s VAL and price falls back under 28299.50 week VAH, then 28212.50 prior week low, which is the gate. Under 28212.50 the steps are 28079.25 Friday’s low and 28050 the week POC, and there is nothing built beneath that until 27579.80 week VAL and 27201.50, the July low.

CL:

Crude has now built three straight weekly profiles on top of the same price. 84.50 is the week POC and July’s POC, the week before that stacked at 84.38, and Friday closed at 84.77 sitting right on the pile. Above 84.50 the push reads 85.38 week VAH, then Friday’s 85.55 value top and 86.01 high, then 88.07 July’s value ceiling with 89.66 prior week VAH and 89.90 June’s high over that. 93.50, the high July and the prior week share, is the extension and it needs a supply headline to get there. Below 84.50 it drops to 84.44 Friday’s VAL and 83.04 June’s value ceiling, then 81.83 the week’s value floor, which is the gate. Under 81.83 the ladder is 80.95 prior week VAL, 79.58 prior week low, and 77.78 the week’s low, and there is nothing structural beneath that until 69.50 June’s POC.

GC:

Gold rolled into December, so read this card fresh and throw the old numbers away. 4102 is where Friday, the week, and July all put their POC, and price closed on it at 4107.70. Above 4102 the first work is 4109 Friday’s value ceiling, 4110.40 prior week VAL, and 4115 Friday’s high, then 4143 where the week topped its value with 4151.30 July’s ceiling stacked right over it. Clear that pair and what is left is 4180.20 the week’s high, 4230 prior week high, and 4276.20 July’s high. Below 4102 it steps 4093.60 Friday’s VAL, 4085.10 June’s POC, and 4076.70 July’s value floor sitting right on Friday’s 4076.50 low, then 4068.70 the week’s VAL, which is the gate. Under 4068.70 it is 4053.90 the week’s low and 4044 prior week low, then air down to 4019, July’s low.

The White Van Stuff

ES: ES finished at 7520.25 with interest at 7525 and 7535 stacked immediately overhead and the heaviest line of the whole book at 7550. The 7450 magnet and the 7439 implied low are the only things underneath before it falls away to the 7200 put floor.

NQ: The tech book has price at 28402.75 with 28550 the first thing over it and then almost nothing until the 29000 cap. Underneath it is stacked tight, 28300 and 28200 and then the 28040 magnet sitting on top of the 28000 put floor.

CL: Crude’s single heaviest line is 85, sitting right on top of where price settled. The whole call structure that got dragged up into 100 during the run has come back down to a 95 cap, and the 80.50 magnet and 77.50 put floor are what hold the bottom.

GC: Gold’s book did not roll with the contract. The 4510 cap and the 4340 magnet both sit above July’s high, which is a book built for a price gold has not been near in a month, while the real weight underneath is 4050 and the put floor is parked at 3900.

Be safe. Plenty of points to steal this week. Be Patient.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Week That Was

Two stories ran this tape all week and spent the whole time fighting each other. Crude went vertical with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a standstill, opening the week at 84.14 and settling Friday at 89.76 after tagging 93.50 midweek, and every dollar of that showed up somewhere else as an inflation problem. Thursday was the break, when the worry about how much these companies are spending on AI finally hit the whole tech book at once and the Mag7 shed the better part of a trillion dollars in a single session. The S&P and the Nasdaq both booked a second straight losing week and the Dow a third. Gold, which is supposed to own a week exactly like this one, did nothing at all, because higher oil means higher inflation expectations means a central bank that stays put or goes the other way, and that math cancels the safety bid every time.

ES opened the week at 7526 and closed Friday at 7448, down about a percent. The week stacked its volume way up at 7546 and then spent Thursday and Friday living underneath it, closing under the 7455.25 value floor with the range bottomed at 7411.75. Friday itself was a rotation that went nowhere, a 7442 POC and a 7448 close, parked right on top of June’s 7440 POC.

NQ opened at 29222.50 and closed Friday at 28283.50, down better than three percent and the ugliest chart of the four. It built value at 28810 early in the week, lost the whole thing, undercut last week’s 28408.20 floor and printed 28212.25 Friday, the lowest the chart has been all summer. The close came in under a 28465 POC, so the sellers got the last word.

CL opened at 84.14 and closed Friday at 89.76, up close to seven percent and the only chart that actually mattered. The run to 93.50 stacked its value way down at 84.38, which tells you how much of that move happened in thin air. Friday rotated 87.68 to 90.56 on an 88.40 POC and settled just over the week’s 89.66 value ceiling, so acceptance is on a knife edge.

GC opened at 4063.50 and closed Friday at 4056.10, flat on the week inside a 3986.50 to 4171.40 range that went both directions and finished in the middle. The week POC printed 4050 and Friday closed a hair over it on a 4061 POC. Two weeks now of chopping the same zone with nothing to show for it.

Cross-asset read: Oil and equities were tied together on one string all week and gold was cut loose from both. Every crude push showed up as an equity sale inside the hour, which tells you the tape is trading this as a rate problem, not a supply problem. NQ eating the whole loss while ES gave back a percent says this is a tech-multiple story rather than a broad-market one.

Positioning (July 21 data): The trader crowd went into the drop leaning short both indexes, roughly 6,800 on the S&P and 9,400 on the Nasdaq, after covering more than 21,000 S&P shorts the week before. So the ones still leaning short actually got paid, which does not happen often enough to plan around. The crude long crowd is loaded at about 42,700 net long as of Tuesday, and that count is from before Thursday’s run to 93.50.

Vol: VIX finished Friday at 18.58 after living in the sixteens the week before, so protection costs more than it did seven days ago.

The Calendar

Wednesday afternoon is the whole week. The decision at 1:00, the press conference at 1:30, then Microsoft and Meta landing inside ninety minutes of the close. Thursday afternoon: Apple and Amazon.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Wednesday at 1:00. Everybody has a hold penciled in at 3.50 to 3.75. The trade is not the decision, it is whether the language leaves the door cracked for a hike later this year, because crude living up here has that probability climbing fast.

2. NQ 28212. Friday’s low is the bottom of everything on my chart since June and there is no volume shelf under it. Accept below and price is in discovery with nothing to catch it until the round number at 28000.

3. CL 89.66. Crude closed over the top of weekly value for the first time in the run, and barely. Hold it and 93.50 comes back into play, lose it and the whole thing unwinds toward 84.38 where the volume actually built.

4. The truce proposal. Mediators have a ten-day halt sitting in front of both sides and nobody has answered it. That answer comes on a weekend or an overnight, never at 8:30 in the morning, so crude gaps and everything else follows it.

5. The four reports. Microsoft and Meta Wednesday, Apple and Amazon Thursday, all after the close. Last week the tape punished a company that beat the quarter and then showed its spending, so the line that matters is capex, not EPS.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES lost 7455 Thursday and never got it back. That line, where the week bottomed its value, is what sits overhead, with price under it at 7448 and June’s 7440 POC directly beneath as the shelf holding the whole thing up. Hold 7440 and the repair reads 7470 Friday’s value top, then 7496 Friday’s high, then 7507 where July bottoms its value and 7546 where the week stacked its POC on July’s, with 7558 last week’s floor and 7590 last week’s POC above that. Lose 7440 and 7431 Friday’s low is the first stop, then 7411, the week low July also owns. Under 7411 the record thins out badly and it opens 7364 June’s value floor, with 7292 June’s low the deep one.

NQ:

NQ is the broken one and the map under it is empty. 28446, where the week bottomed its value, is the line overhead, with price well beneath it at 28283.50 after Friday tagged 28212.25. Reclaim 28446 and the repair reads 28465 Friday’s POC, then 28512 June’s low and 28587 Friday’s value top, with 28810 the week’s POC the target where the volume actually sits and 28980 July’s value floor above it. Lose 28327 Friday’s value low and 28212 is the gate, the lowest print of the month. Accept under 28212 and there is nothing built below, just the 28000 round number and air.

CL:

Crude is the one chart with acceptance above its whole weekly value, and it is barely holding it. 89.66, the top of weekly value, is the line, with price just over it at 89.76 and July’s 90.97 ceiling the next lid. Hold 89.66 and the push reads 89.90 June’s high, then 90.56 Friday’s high and 90.97 July’s value top, then 93.50, the top of the whole run, with the 100 round number the extension. Lose 89.66 and 88.40 Friday’s POC catches the first leg, then 87.68 Friday’s low. Under that it slides to 84.38 the week’s POC where the volume built, then 83.04 June’s value ceiling, 80.48 last week’s value top, and 79, the last-week and July POC stack that sits under all of it.

GC:

Gold has done nothing for two weeks and the bracket is wide because of it. 4050, the week’s POC, is the line, with price sitting on top of it at 4056.10 and June’s 4044 value floor right underneath. Hold 4050 and the push reads 4064 last week’s value ceiling, then 4072 Friday’s value top and 4080 July’s POC where the month’s volume sits, with 4101 the week’s ceiling and 4121 July’s above that. Lose 4044 and 4008 where the week bottomed its value is the gate, then 3990 July’s value low and 3986 the week’s bottom. Under those it is 3978 last week’s floor and 3963, the low the last two weeks share, with 3955 June’s low the deep one.

The White Van Stuff

Fresh book off Friday’s close, and it is built wide in equities and stacked long in crude. Both index books have their floors sitting well under price and their caps miles overhead, which is an unpinned setup going into a decision day and two nights of reports. Crude dragged its whole call structure up into 95 and 100 on the run while gold’s book has not moved off the same 4000 to 4100 cage in a week.

ES: ES finished at 7444 with the 7450 shelf right on top of it and the 7500 magnet the first real lid overhead. The 7513 expected high caps the daily envelope, and the 7400 interest and 7375 expected low are what sit underneath before the 7200 floor.

NQ: The tech book has price at 28306 sitting right on the 28300 shelf with 28500 the first lid overhead. The 29250 magnet is a long way up and the 28000 floor is the only real thing underneath, which is the same story the chart is already telling.

CL: Crude’s book is stacked long off the run, the 90 shelf just under price and 92.50 the first lid over it. The 95 and 100 ceilings are where the whole call structure got dragged, with the 79 magnet parked way down at the bottom of the book.

GC: Gold is the most pinned of the four, price at 4055 with the 4045 magnet under it and the 4075 shelf on top. The 4100 cap and the 4000 floor have not budged in a week, so the book has the same cage everybody can already see on the chart.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Week That Was

The war between the US and Iran went from headline risk to the tape itself, strikes running nightly, a tanker hit at the main export terminal, and the first American troop deaths since March, landing over the weekend. Then tech found its own problem, a weak streaming guide Thursday night and a fresh scare about the AI buildout getting cheaper, and the chip complex took the indexes out at the lows Friday while crude went out at the highs. Gold watched a shooting war, a soft print, and a tech flush, and went down anyway. Sunday’s open inherits all of it.

ES opened the week at 7607 and closed 7498, lower and out the bottom of its own range: the week built its volume up at 7590 and Friday broke away from it, leaving the 7558 value floor overhead. The 7473 low landed almost on top of last week’s 7468.50 print, a double floor two weeks running.

NQ went 29952 to 28773, worst chart of the four, and Friday it traded clean through June’s 28512 low to 28408 before buyers finally showed. The week’s volume sat at 29700, the summer shelf, and price closed nowhere near it.

CL opened at 73.69, gapping over the old range, and never gave any of it back, settling 81.78 after printing 82.76 late Friday. The 71.49 Sunday-night low might as well be a different market; every dip all week got bought inside half a session.

GC opened 4081 and closed 4019, lower again, after tagging the summer floor at 3963 Friday and bouncing. Second straight down week with a war on, and the week’s volume settled dead on the 4000 round number.

Positioning (July 14 data): The index short crowd finally got a week it was dressed for, both boards net short a fourth straight report, and the Nasdaq shorts added right before the flush. The barrel crowd went long as the shooting started and just got paid in full. Gold’s long crowd trimmed a touch and is still the most loaded book on the board, wrong two weeks running now.

Vol: Index protection went out at 16.73, still priced like nothing is happening, while crude’s book is the loudest thing on the screen and the tech book carries a real bid. Cheap index insurance into a week like this is either a gift or a warning.

The Calendar

The first two Mag7 prints of the season land on the same evening, and Intel follows Thursday night with the chip complex already bleeding.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Wednesday night, both of them. Alphabet and Tesla after the close, the first Mag7 looks of the season, landing on a tape that just sold the AI trade for two straight days. The capex line matters more than the earnings line.

2. NQ’s failed breakdown. Friday undercut June’s 28512 low to 28408 and got bought back hard. Hold above 28512 and that look below is a spring under the market; accept back under 28408 and there is no profile left to catch it.

3. ES 7470, three fingerprints on one shelf. This week’s low 7473, last week’s low 7468.50, and the options floor at 7470 all sit on the same price. The most defended shelf on the board either holds a third test or the map opens to June.

4. Crude acceptance above 80.96. The spike settled above the top of its own weekly value, which the last spike never managed. Above 80.96 the stranded spring structure at 88 and 93 is the map; below 77.99 the unwind starts again, same as last time.

5. Gold’s floor at 3963. Third test of the same shelf this summer, and each bounce is getting weaker while the long crowd stays loaded. It holds or the last print on the map is 3955.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

The line is 7532, the value floor last week drew and the one Friday’s flush finally broke. Reclaim it and the repair reads 7552 June’s value ceiling, 7558 where this week’s value bottomed, then 7590, the price July keeps stacking volume on, with 7619 and 7632 the top of the map. Fail to take it back and the double floor gets a third test, 7473 this week’s low sitting on 7468.50 last week’s, the shelf neither week could sell through. Accept below that and June’s map opens up: 7440 the June POC, then 7365 where June’s value bottomed, then 7292, the June low.

NQ:

NQ has one job: take back 28910, the shelf it snapped Friday. Above it the ladder reads 29263 where the week’s value bottomed, stacked nearly on top of June’s 29248 floor, then 29600 July’s POC and 29700, the price this week and June both crowned, with 29989 and 30074 the recovery targets past it. Stay under 28910 and Friday’s look below stays open business, 28512 June’s low first, then 28408, the deepest print of the summer. Accept below 28408 and the profile has nothing left to say.

CL:

Crude’s trigger is 80.96, the ceiling of this week’s value, and it settled the week above it. Hold above and the spike is accepted: 82.76 the week high is the only structure left before the air, then 88.18, the war-era value floor May left behind, and 93.42, the June high, the shelves the spring stranded on the way down. Lose 80.96 and the profile pulls it back inside, 79.60 the week’s volume line first, then 77.99 where the value bottomed. Below that the unwind map is 76.08, the spike high nobody trusted two weeks ago, then 74 July’s POC and 72 where last week did its business.

GC:

Gold settled its week’s volume on 4000 flat and closed just above the number. The upside is a staircase of old floors: 4026 July’s value floor, 4065 this week’s value ceiling, 4080 July’s POC, then 4094, the bottom of last week’s value and the line that says the breakdown repaired, with 4115 and 4129 past it. The downside is one number, 3963, tagged Friday and bought for the third time this summer. Accept below it and 3955, the June low, is the last print on the map, with nothing underneath.

The White Van Stuff

The books finally moved, and they moved in four different directions: the S&P book is standing on its own floor, the tech book got left entirely overhead, crude’s flipped outright bullish chasing the barrels, and gold’s got squeezed into a lid-and-floor vise. What has not moved is the price of index insurance, still cheap while the commodity books scream, and that mismatch is the same one that has been begging to close all month.

ES leans put-heavy and price is standing on the biggest one, the 7470 floor, the exact shelf the last two weekly lows printed on. The magnet got left overhead at 7575 with heavy interest layered 7500 to 7550 between here and there. It sits 7498, right on the floor.

NQ trades under its entire book, and the line that spent last week as the floor at 30000 is now the cap. The interest overhead comes in layers, 28800 and 28900 first, the big cluster at 29000 behind them, then the 29500 magnet. It sits 28773, below all of it.

CL is the one book of the four that flipped bullish outright, calls outweighing puts with the clusters chasing price higher, 82.71 and 84.73 next overhead and the cap at 85.74 behind them. The old magnet at 73.38 got left in another zip code. It settled 81.78, with the densest line below at 80.69.

GC is in a vise: the cap at 4100 and the magnet at 4095 sit stacked as a single lid, the put floor at 4000 is the shelf price keeps straddling, and the put-side lean here is the heaviest of the four books. It sits 4019, between the floor and the 4025 line.

I drink your milkshake.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Tape

ES ran up to 7610 early Monday and leaked the whole thing back, closing 7563 on a 7563.5 POC with value stacked 7553.75 to 7593, a session that gave away its highs. The overnight drifted a tight 7544 to 7575 and sits 7555 now, back under Monday’s POC and pinned to 7547, the shelf June built its volume on. Reclaim 7563.5 the POC and 7575 the overnight high and 7588.5 last week’s POC opens, then 7593 Monday’s upper value. Lose 7544 the overnight low and 7546 the developing value floor, and 7532 is the gate, where last week and July both bottomed their value. It sits 7555, on the June line.

NQ was the ugly one Monday, tagging 29752 and getting sold all day to close 29466 near the low on a 29500 POC. The overnight bought it back, running from 29490 up to 29670 and sitting 29630, pressed right on 29663.75, Monday’s value ceiling. Through that and 29670 the overnight top, 29700 June’s POC is the first real test, then 29752 Monday’s high with 29900 July’s POC above. Lose 29600 the developing POC and 29500 the Monday POC gives, then 29469 the value low and 29393 Monday’s low. It sits 29630, nose against the top of yesterday’s range.

CL went vertical Monday, running from 73.43 to 78.46 and closing 77.66, a trend day that left its 74.7 POC far behind. The overnight kept pushing, gapping to 79.78 and tagging 81.27 before settling to sit 79.76 on top of the whole range, today’s volume building at 80.3 over a 79.55 shelf. Above 80.3 and 81.27 the overnight peak it is thin air, nothing built overhead until June’s spike zone. Below 78.83 the overnight base, 78.46 Monday’s high flips to support, then 77.56 the value high and 74.7 the Monday POC underneath. It sits 79.76, the highest crude has printed in weeks.

GC pushed to 4075.5 Monday and got sold all day, closing 4009.3 near the low on a 4015 POC. The overnight steadied it, holding 4020 to 4040 and sitting 4036.9 back at Monday’s 4033 value, and this is the chart the safe-haven bid is supposed to lift and instead keeps getting sold, a full shelf under last week’s 4111. Through 4039.5 the value high and 4040 the overnight top opens 4066 July’s floor, then 4075.5 Monday’s high. Below 4020 the overnight base, 4015 Monday’s POC gives, then 3996 and 3993 the value base and session low, with air to 3975 June’s low under it. It sits 4036.9, back at Monday’s upper value.

The Calendar

Tuesday, July 14 (all times CT):

- 7:30 CPI, the print the whole tape is frozen for

- 9:00 Fed Chair Warsh testifies on the Hill

- 11:40 Fed’s Barr, then Goolsbee at 12:00, Cook at 12:30, Bowman at 1:55

- 3:30 API crude inventories after the close

CPI at 7:30 and a brand-new Fed Chair on the mic at 9:00 back to back are the whole morning. Everything before the open is just positioning for those two.

The Plan

ES:

ES is pinned to the June shelf at 7547, the price the whole prior month built its volume on, with 7555 the developing session sitting on top of it. Above 7558 today’s POC the first job is 7563.5 Monday’s POC and close, then 7575 the overnight top. Reclaim those and 7588.5 last week’s POC opens, then 7593 Monday’s value high and 7604 last week’s value ceiling, with 7610 Monday’s high the extension. Below 7546 the developing value base and 7544 the overnight low, the tape gives to 7532, where last week and July stack their lows. Lose that and there is air to 7469 last week’s low, then 7451 June’s floor.

NQ:

NQ has repair to do after Monday’s flush, sitting 29630 with the overnight bounce pressing 29663.75, Monday’s value ceiling. Above 29670 the overnight high, 29700 June’s POC is the first real test, then 29752 Monday’s high, with 29900 July’s POC the level that says the flush is done. Hold above 29600 today’s POC and the bounce keeps its base. Below it, 29500 Monday’s POC gives, then 29469 Monday’s value floor and 29393 Monday’s low. Under the low there is 29369 the July shelf, then 29350 where last week and the month built their heaviest volume.

CL:

Crude is the only chart moving and the game is whether it holds the breakout. 79.55 the developing value base over 78.83 the overnight base is the shelf, and above it the run stays alive with 80.3 today’s POC and 81.27 the overnight peak the first targets. Through that peak there is open air, nothing built overhead until June’s spike zone. Below 78.83 and 78.46 Monday’s high, the gap starts to fill toward 77.56 Monday’s value top, then 74.7 Monday’s POC where the volume actually sits. Under that it is 73.44 Monday’s value low, then 72, where last week and July both parked their volume.

GC:

Gold has to prove Monday’s fade was an overreaction. 4033 Monday’s value ceiling is the shelf it is testing this morning, and clearing 4040 the overnight high puts 4066 July’s floor back in reach, then 4075.5 Monday’s high. Above there, 4097 last week’s floor is the proof the down move got repaired. Below 4024 today’s POC and 4020 the overnight low, 4015 Monday’s POC gives, then 3996 Monday’s value base and 3993 the session low. Under the low there is air to 3975 June’s low.

The White Van Stuff

This is a headline tape, not a yields-and-dollar tape, and the positioning is chasing crude while it runs away from everything else. Oil cleared its entire options structure overnight, so its whole cage now sits underneath spot as support, while the equity books stayed tight and quiet into the print. Gold’s protection is stacked above a market that keeps sinking away from it, the one book on the screen pricing fear that price refuses to pay for.

ES: The equity band is tight, priced for a quiet session if the number lets it be one. Price sits under the 7630 same-day cap with the bulk of the interest stacked overhead into the 7700 structural cap, and the 7550 magnet is the shelf right under it. The put floor for the day is 7540 with the expected low at 7496.

NQ: NQ carries the wider book, priced for more than three times the broad index’s move. Price sits between the 29540 magnet under it and the 30000 same-day cap overhead, with a thin ceiling until that round number. The downside interest builds from 29300 down to the 29000 put floor, the expected day running 28986 to 29965.

CL: Crude’s book is the loudest on the board and price already blew through the top of it. The old 78 cap flipped to support underneath, and the whole structure from there down to 72 now sits below spot, so that shelf is the floor. Overhead there is almost nothing until the 81 same-day cap, then the 82 expected high and air to 83.5.

GC: Gold’s structure is stacked above a market falling away from it, and price just nudged over its 4025 same-day cap. The 4066 expected high and the 4095 magnet sit overhead into a wall of interest from 4100 up, and the 4020 pivot is the line the fade keeps pressing. Under it the real interest thins to the 4000 floor, then 3950 and the 3945 expected low.

Trust your prep. See you at the top.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

The ceasefire died Tuesday night, three tankers got hit, and the president confirmed it from a podium, and that one headline wrote every chart’s week. Crude put an entire war premium back on in a single overnight and spent the rest of the week handing it back. The indexes flushed hard Wednesday morning and then did the thing nobody was positioned for: bought all of it back, ES finishing on its weekly high and NQ over the round number. Gold got sold into a shooting week because expensive barrels feed the same rate math that has been squatting on this tape all summer, and with the ten-year camped near 4.6 the metal could not keep a bid. The chip tape got sold out of Asia early, ended the week carrying the index anyway, and the biggest foreign listing ever hit the Nasdaq Friday to a bid. One headline, four charts, and only one of them is still trading it.

ES opened the week at 7565 and closed 7621, higher on the week and out the top after touring the whole map in between: through 7594 Monday, back under it Tuesday, flushed to 7469 Wednesday, back through it Friday. The week’s volume settled at 7588, right under the line it kept fighting over.

NQ went 29836 to 30037 on the week, its first Friday close above 30000, by way of a 29034 flush that broke everything first. The volume never followed the recovery up; the week built its base at 29350 and left it behind.

CL opened 68.28 pinned to the floor it spent two weeks dying on, ran to 76.08 by Wednesday, and closed 71.57 after three straight sessions of selling, to the tick on 71.60, the top of the old range. The streak of lower weeks is over; what replaced it is a spike nobody trusted past lunch.

GC opened 4168 and closed 4117, lower on the week, rejected at 4192 for the second week in a row. It flushed to 4032 midweek, clawed back to the 4111 week POC by Friday, and that double lid overhead now runs the chart.

Cross-asset read: The headline that was supposed to sink equities got them a Friday close at the top of the range, and the only chart still trading the conflict is crude, which cannot hold its own rallies for more than a session. Gold falling on a week like this with yields up tells you what the market is actually afraid of: the rate math, not the missiles.

Positioning (July 7 data): The trader crowd is still net short both the S&P and the Nasdaq, third report running, and it spent another week as bounce fuel while the tape ground higher. The barrel crowd flipped back to the long side right as the shooting started, the right side for about one session before the spike got sold. Gold’s long crowd never left and is still loaded, which cuts both ways at a two-week lid.

Vol: The VIX sat at 16 through all of it, so protection on the index side still costs next to nothing. Crude’s book never got the memo, and gold’s is jumpier than the metal’s chart looks.

The Calendar

EARNINGS SEASON IS SO FUCKING BACK.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Tuesday morning, all of it. The June print at 7:30 CT, five banks before the bell, the chair testifying at 9:00. The rate path, earnings season, and the whole recovery reprice in one session.

2. NQ 30000. First close above it in five tries, with the volume base left behind at 29350. Acceptance opens 30250, the price last week anchored on; another rejection and 29700, the summer shelf, is back in play.

3. ES 7594, round three. Monday’s breakout failed, Friday’s gets the retest. If it holds there is only 7647 and 7694 left overhead from this year’s structure.

4. Crude at 71.60. The spike round-tripped to the exact top of the old range. Above it the new range builds from the 72 shelf; below it the rest of the premium unwinds toward 70.

5. Gold’s cage. Two weeks, two rejections at 4192, while the floor stack holds underneath: the floor of this week’s value at 4097 with the options crowd’s magnet sitting on the same shelf at 4095.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

The whole week distilled to one line: 7594, last week’s high with July’s value ceiling built on the same price. ES broke it Monday, lost it Tuesday, flushed to 7469 Wednesday, and took it back Friday with value following, closing 7621 with the week’s volume parked at 7588 right under the line. Hold 7594 and the breakout is working: 7627 the week high first, then 7647 June’s value ceiling, and past that 7694, the June high, the only structure left overhead. Lose 7594 and the fight resumes: 7588 the week POC goes first, 7556 last week’s POC under it, then 7532, where the week’s value bottoms, the gate that says the breakout failed twice. Below that it is 7497, last week’s floor of value, and 7469 the flush low, then 7451 June’s value floor with air underneath to 7307, the June low.

NQ:

NQ finally closed over 30000 at 30037, first time in five sessions of knocking, but the week’s volume never followed it up: the base built at 29350 during the flush and price left it behind. Acceptance above 30000 targets 30094 the week high, then 30250, last week’s POC and the first price overhead with a real argument in it, then 30356 the July high and 30438 last week’s value ceiling. Through 30600, where last week topped, there is nothing but air to 31100, the June record. If 30000 fails again, 29900 the July POC catches first, then 29700 June’s POC, the shelf the sellers camped on all summer. Under that it is 29620 where last week’s value bottomed, 29350 the week’s volume base, and 29034 the double bottom, with 28506 under everything.

CL:

Crude did the whole war trade in one week: glued to 68 Monday, gapped through everything to 76.08 by Wednesday, then sold for three straight sessions to close 71.57, sitting to the tick on 71.60, last week’s high. That line is the edge between the new picture and the old one. Hold above 71.60 and the range builds: 72.00 the week POC is the first fight, 73.56 the week’s value ceiling next, and 76.08 the spike high is the cap until a fresh headline says otherwise, with 78.81 June’s value ceiling past it. Lose 71.60 and the unwind is on: 70.14 last week’s value ceiling, then 70.00 where June parked its volume on the round number. Under 70 it is 68.30 last week’s POC and 68.06 where this week bottomed, then 67.43 with nothing under it until 65.

GC:

Gold’s week was a rejection at 4192, the same price that capped it last week, and that double lid now runs the chart. It flushed to 4032 midweek when the rate math took over, then spent Thursday and Friday climbing back to close 4117 on the 4111 week POC. Reclaim 4125, the top of last week’s value, and the lid gets its third test: 4163 July’s value ceiling, 4182 the week’s, then 4192 itself, with thin trade above it all the way to 4365, the June POC. Lose 4097, the bottom of the week’s value, and 4082, July’s floor, is the gate. Under that the stack at 4042, June’s value floor sitting on last week’s POC, is the real decision, then 4022 and 3976.

The White Van Stuff

ES has a book that chased the breakout: the heavy interest that sat below price all month is now stacked overhead from 7625 to 7690, with the cap at 7700 right behind it. The magnet got left at 7545 and the put floor is all the way down at 7500. It closed 7621, trading into the stack.

NQ has the biggest single line in its book at 30000, and Friday was the first close on top of it. Above, the interest clusters 30100 to 30300 and then thins out fast to the 31000 cap; below, the magnet waits at 29770 and the put floor at 29000. It closed 30037, a hair over the line.

CL never calmed down and still owns the loudest book on the board, the densest interest packed 71 to 73 right where price sits. The cap at 76 is where the spike died, and the floor is 70. It closed 71.57, under the 72.25 magnet.

GC carries the heaviest put lean of the four books, and the floor side is a staircase: the 4095 magnet, then interest every few dollars down to the 4000 put floor. Overhead the band from 4165 to 4195 sits under the 4300 cap. It closed 4117, leaning on the 4115 shelf.

Enjoy your weekend. See you Tonight for SundayTicks Live on everything 8pm CT.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

The whole week turned on one number. Payrolls landed at 57k, soft enough to put the tightening talk on ice, and the indexes that got sold all last week ripped right back while the Dow closed the half at a record. The money leaving the chips kept landing on gold, and crude spent the week scraping its lowest prices since winter as barrels keep coming back.

ES opened the week at 7398 and closed 7557, with Thursday’s 7593.75 high sitting right under last week’s 7599 print. Two weekly highs on top of each other is the wall the new quarter opens against.

NQ opened 29282, ran to 30600 by Tuesday, and the chip selling dragged it to 29328 Thursday before the half-day bought it back to 29901. Higher on the week, ugliest chart of the four getting there.

CL bled to 67.04 Thursday, its lowest trade since February, and finished 68.78. Fourth week lower in a row, and every bounce died at the same line just over 69.

GC flushed to 3962 on Tuesday, a fresh 2026 low by less than a point, then went one direction into a 4187 close. Two weekly lows at the same price in two weeks, both bought.

Cross-asset read: Indexes took the soft print as relief, gold took it as fuel, and crude ignored it completely because its problem is supply, not the rate path. Rotation, not distribution, until the floors start breaking.

Positioning (June 23 data): The holiday pushed the updated report, so this is the same picture as last week, and it played out exactly like bounce fuel does. The short crowd got squeezed out, not converted.

Vol: The VIX closed at 16 and change, books everywhere are priced for a quiet summer, and thin tapes cut both ways.

The Calendar

The minutes are the only thing on here that can really move it, the first look inside the new chair’s first meeting. No Mag7 this week, the banks kick off earnings season the week after.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. FOMC minutes Wednesday 1:00 PM CT. The tape spent four sessions deciding the hawkish turn was overdone. If the minutes read like the committee meant it, the whole rip is offside.

2. ES 7594 and 7599. Two weekly highs stacked overhead. Acceptance above opens 7632, the June high, with nothing traded higher this year.

3. NQ 30000. Holding above it points the bounce back at 30600 where Tuesday died. Losing 29328, Thursday’s flush low, says the chip selling is not done.

4. Gold through 4216. The double floor at 3962 is in and the week closed at the highs. Through 4216, last week’s high, the air gets thin for a long way up.

5. Crude at 67.04. Lowest trade since February with no recent volume underneath. Either the low keeps holding, or it breaks and price discovery does the rest.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

The new quarter opens at 7557 staring at the paired highs at 7594 and 7599, and that is the whole decision. Through 7599 it’s 7632, the June high, and past that nothing on the chart from this year. Hold 7524, Friday’s low, and dips stay entries; lose it and 7480 then 7398 decide whether the rip was real, with 7357 and 7232 waiting below.

NQ:

NQ closed 29901, right in the middle of the week’s fight at 30000. Above it, 30320 then 30600 where Tuesday’s run died, and through there 30968 is the top of the entire structure. Lose 29522 then 29328, the gate, and under that it’s 29160 with air to 28228, the June low.

CL:

Crude closed 68.78 under the 69.25 line it failed at all week. Reclaim it and 70.19, 70.75 and 71.60 are the bounce steps, with nothing above until the stranded structure at 78.96. Lose 68.08 and 67.04 is the gate, the lowest trade since February; below 67 it’s discovery toward the 65 round.

GC:

Gold closed 4187 with only 4208 and 4216, last week’s high, between it and a new recovery leg. Through 4216 the trade is thin all the way toward 4541, the June high. Hold 4134, Friday’s floor, and the V keeps its shape; lose it and 4062 then 4022 come first, with 3962, the double floor, underneath.

The White Van Stuff

The books came out of the holiday pinned: ES inside its densest interest shelf under the cap, NQ sitting on its magnet, crude’s flush caught by its floor, gold pressing its upper band. Nobody is paying up for protection anywhere, which is exactly how quiet weeks stop being quiet.

ES sits at 7557 inside the heavy interest from 7530 to 7580, the 7600 cap directly overhead, the 7510 magnet the landing spot below, and the put floor a long way down at 7400.

NQ closed parked on its 29810 magnet with the put side crowded, interest packed from 29300 down to the 29000 floor. First wall overhead is 30000, the cap a long climb away at 31000.

CL owns the loudest book on the board, compressed into the 66 to 72 window. Thursday’s flush ran straight into the 67 put floor and held, with the magnet at 70 and the cap at 76 on top of everything.

GC ran its reversal straight into the upper interest band, 4192 and 4212 pressing with the 4286 cap on top of them. The floor at 3987 is where the book drew its line, and the 3962 flush poked under it and snapped right back.

Still on vacay so will ease back in this week. The screen will be there tomorrow. Cheers.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

Tech bleeding and gold bidding on the same tape is the tell of the week. Crude was off in its own funeral, third week lower with the war premium fully gone, answering to supply instead of the rate path. Four sessions of selling in the indexes, one violent reversal in gold, and all of it walks into a jobs report that got pulled forward into a holiday-shortened week.

ES opened the week at 7573 and closed Friday at 7380, lower on the week and out the bottom of its own value. The week POC built up at 7444 with the 7408 value floor sitting above the close, the first weekly close back under value since the recovery rolled over. Sellers leaned on every bounce the entire back half.

NQ took it the hardest. It opened 30822, tagged 30968 early, then the chip worry took the wheel and it bled to a 29182 low and a 29312 close, the 29700 week POC a ceiling now. The chip-led group that carried the tape all spring is the one dragging it lower.

CL kept doing what it has done for a month. It opened the week near 74, lost the 73 shelf by midweek, and closed 69.51 sitting on the 68.55 week low, the whole pre-crash structure stranded up near 80 and the spring’s value a different planet entirely. The barrels-are-coming-back trade has pulled price clean out of three months of value.

GC was the comeback story. It opened 4225, flushed to a fresh 2026 low at 3975, then reversed hard and closed 4086 back above the 4030 week POC. The metal that bled all spring is suddenly catching every dollar that runs out of tech, and it did it with the ten-year still going the wrong way for it.

Cross-asset read: One hawkish reset, two opposite trades. The indexes sold the rate scare and the growth worry on the same tape, while the rotation out of tech handed gold the bid it could not buy for itself all spring. The metal is up with yields up, which is not supposed to happen, and that divergence is the cleanest read on the board. Crude answers to supply and the talks, not the rate path, so it is in its own world at the lows.

Positioning (June 23 data): The trader crowd walked in leaning short both the S&P and the Nasdaq, which is exactly the bounce fuel that keeps getting lit every time the tape has to cover into strength. The barrel crowd finally flipped to the short side after riding the premium down all spring.

Vol: Equity protection stayed cheap on the S&P while the Nasdaq’s book is the jumpy one of the two, and crude still carries the fattest, loudest book on the screen. A tape priced for calm walking into Thursday’s number on a half day is the part that bites.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Payrolls Thursday 7:30 AM CT. The override on every chart, and it lands on a half day before a long weekend. The first read since the projections flipped to a hike, dropping into a thin tape that shuts at noon. Hot confirms the dots, soft fights them, and either way the close carries gap risk into Monday.

2. NQ getting carried out. It closed 29312 under the 29700 wall where the week and the month both stacked their POC. While it is under that line the path points down at the 28506 June low, and the chip group that broke it is the one that has to fix it.

3. Gold’s reversal. It printed a fresh 2026 low at 3975 and turned on a dime, closing back above the 4030 week POC. The bid is the money leaving the semis, not the rate path, so the question is whether it holds 4030 or fades back into the flush.

4. Crude in a vacuum. Third week lower and pressing the 68.55 week and month low with no recent volume underneath. The whole pre-crash shelf is stranded near 80 and 91, so bounces are headline trades and the breakdown is the structure.

5. ES back under value. Friday closed under the 7408 value floor for the first time since the recovery topped. Reclaim 7408 and the dip stays a bounce, lose 7360 and the week turns heavy toward the 7307 June low where the month built its volume on June’s flush.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES closed the week at 7380, under the 7408 floor of its value, so the first job is reclaiming 7408 to get back inside the range. Above 7408 the 7444 week and month POC is next, then 7475 week VAH, and above there the 7558 last week’s value floor is the line that says the dip-buyers actually showed up. Through 7558 the 7613 last week’s POC is the wall where all the recovery volume now sits as supply, with 7649 last week’s high and the 7693 June high overhead. Hold 7360 and the dip stays a bounce. Lose 7360 the week low and 7355 the June VAL goes with it, then there is air down to 7307, the June low.

NQ:

NQ closed 29312, under the 29392 week value floor, the weakest of the four and the one the AI worry is carrying out. The line that matters is the 29700 stack where the week and the month both parked their POC, so reclaiming 29392 gets it back into value and 29700 is the wall it has to take to call this anything but a bounce. Above 29700 the 29890 week VAH opens, then air to the 30353 last week’s value floor and 30450 last week’s POC, with 30915 last week’s high overhead. Lose 29229 the June VAL and 29182 the week low is the gate, and losing that opens the vacuum straight to 28506.

CL:

Crude closed 69.51 sitting on the 68.55 week and month low, having fallen clean out of its own value with the 70 week POC the only nearby line overhead. A bounce has to first reclaim 73.06 the week VAH and 73.20 the month POC, and from there it is a long climb to the stranded volume at 75.85 last week’s POC, 77.55 last week’s VAH, and 80.04 the June VAH. Those are headline-only targets now. Lose 68.55 and there is no recent profile underneath, just price discovery into the 67 round and the 65 floor.

GC:

Gold reversed off the 3975 low and closed 4086, back above the 4030 week POC and pressing the 4106 week value high that lids the bounce. Reclaim 4106 and 4160 last week’s low is the first step, then 4231 last week’s value floor gets it back inside last week’s range, with 4250 last week’s POC and 4365 the June POC the next shelves up. Above there 4403 the June VAH and 4532 the May POC are the wall where the long crowd kept trimming all spring. Lose 4030 and 4049 the June VAL goes, then 3981 the week VAL, then back to 3975.

The White Van Stuff

ES has the calmest book of the four, the option crowd leaning slightly short with cheap protection and price pinned right on the 7400 put floor it has been defending. The magnet sits overhead at 7490 and the cap is a long way up at 7800, so the whole fight is in the dense interest shelf between the floor and the magnet.

NQ carries the heaviest put-side book of the four and it is sitting in the bottom third of its expected week, leaning on the 29000 floor with the magnet pinned just overhead at 29900. The cap is a long way up at 31000 with thin interest the whole way there, which is what a contract getting carried out looks like on the book.

CL owns the fattest, loudest book on the board and the vol on it never came in. The magnet is stranded up at 79 in a different era of the contract, the cap a relic at 90, and down at price the only thing that matters is the heavy interest stacked from 66 to 72 and the real floor a long way under at 65.

GC spent the week climbing back into its own book, price now pressing the upper interest after reversing off the low with the long crowd leaning hard into every bounce. The cap is up at 4300, the magnet sits overhead at 4195, and the put floor down at 4000 is the line the reversal cannot afford to lose.

Life moves pretty fast. Go blow up some shit with m80s and grill some burgers and hotdogs.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

ES spent the front half clawing back toward the highs and tagged 7649 Tuesday, a hair under the 7693 June high, before the projections knocked it back into value. It closed 7564 sitting on the 7558 floor of the week’s value with the 7613 POC built right overhead. First close back under that POC since the recovery started.

NQ took the rate hit hardest and recovered it fastest. It slid to 29923 on the projections, then the semi headline carried it back through the whole drop to close 30693, leaning on the upper third of the week’s value above the 30450 POC. Strongest of the four and the only one that closed within striking distance of its 31100 record.

CL kept doing what it has done for a month. It opened the week near 80, lost the 73.58 low by Thursday, and closed 76.91 with the entire pre-crash shelf stranded up at 84 and 91. The supply-is-coming-back trade has pulled price clean out of three months of value.

GC was the wreck of the group. It ranged 4220 to 4403 and closed 4236 near the low, then the thin holiday tape leaked it under the 4220 week low toward 4180. Every bit of structure now sits overhead, and the metal is trading straight inverse to the ten-year with nothing under it to lean on.

Cross-asset read: One central bank and one corporate headline split the board clean in two. The projections should have sunk everything, and for an afternoon they did, but the tie-up handed equities a reason to climb back while the metal had no such lifeline and ate the rate move whole. Crude is off in its own world, answering to supply and the talks, not to the rate path. The indexes are a chip story, gold is a rates story, and oil is a peace story, all printing on the same tape.

Vol: The fear gauge slid back under 18 as the protection bought for the meeting got dumped into the semi rally, so equity vol is cheap again right into a PCE Thursday. Gold and crude vol never came in, and the metal’s book is built to push the next leg down, not catch it.

The Calendar

Micron after the bell Wednesday is the lone single-stock print with real macro in it, a direct read on whether the bid that saved the week has earnings to back it up. Everything else bends to Thursday morning.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. PCE Thursday 7:30 AM CT. The override on every chart. The first inflation read since the projections flipped to a hike, stacked with GDP and durable goods the same morning. Hot confirms the dots, soft fights them.

2. NQ holds the chip bid. It closed 30693 back above the 30450 week POC on the strength of the semi headline and never looked back. While it holds that line the path points at the 31100 record. Micron after Wednesday’s close is the test of whether the bid has earnings under it.

3. ES at the floor of value. The recovery ran into the 7613 week POC and stalled, closing 7564 on the 7558 value floor. Above 7613 the highs come back into view, under 7558 the week turns heavy toward the 7472 low.

4. Crude in a vacuum. It fell clean out of three months of value and there is no recent volume under the 73.58 low. The whole pre-crash shelf is stranded at 84 and 91, so bounces are headline trades and the breakdown is the structure.

5. Gold has nothing overhead but supply. Every level above price is a seller now. It is pressing the 4220 week low with the 4072 flush low the last real shelf underneath, and it answers to the ten-year harder than anything else on the board.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES closed the week on the 7558 floor of its value with the 7613 POC sitting right on top, so the first job is reclaiming 7613 to get back in control. Above 7613 the 7636 week and month ceiling is next, then 7649 the week high and 7693 the June high where the whole run topped out. Hold 7558 and the dip stays a bounce. Lose 7558 and 7546 the June value floor goes, then 7499 last week’s POC and 7472 where the week put in its low. Below 7472 there is air down to 7420 last week’s value floor, and under that the slide runs to 7307 where June built its volume on the jobs flush, the line the whole month is stacked on.

NQ:

NQ closed 30693 in the upper third of its value, holding above the 30450 POC the semis reclaimed, the strongest chart of the four. Above 30766 the week ceiling and 30834 June’s, the 30915 week high is the gate, and taking it opens clean air to the 31100 record. Hold 30450 and dips stay buyable. Lose 30450 and 30353 the week value floor goes, then 30139 last week’s high and 29923 the week low catch the first legs down. Below 29923 the vacuum opens to 29524 last week’s volume shelf, then 28506 where last week and June share their low, the deep base the whole rally is built over.

CL:

Crude closed 76.91 having fallen clean out of its own value, the 76 week POC the only nearby line and the whole pre-crash shelf stranded overhead. A bounce has to first reclaim 80.16 the week ceiling, and from there it is a long climb to the stranded volume at 84 last week’s low, 86.66, June’s value floor, and 91.30 where the month and last week both built their base. Those are headline-only targets now. Lose 73.58 the shared week and June low and there is no recent profile underneath, just price discovery into the low 70s and the 70 round where the next real volume sits.

GC:

Gold closed 4236 near its low and the holiday tape leaked it under the 4220 week low toward 4180, so it walks in below everything. The first job is reclaiming 4231 the week value floor and the 4250 POC just to get back inside the range. Above that 4284 last week’s value high and 4364 the week ceiling are the next steps, with 4403 the week high and 4532 the May POC the wall where the long crowd keeps selling. Lose 4180 and 4112 June’s value floor is the catch, then 4072 where last week and June share the flush low. Below 4072 it is fresh discovery with no volume to lean on.

The White Van Stuff

The reset to the hike side cut two ways across the books. The index surfaces stayed calm and balanced through the whole round trip, the protection cheap again and the pin back on stocks, while the metal’s book is loaded for downside and built to push the next leg, not catch it. Crude still owns the loudest, widest book on the board, its magnet stranded in a different era of the contract from where price actually trades.

ES has the calmest book of the four, the option crowd leaning slightly long again with cheap protection and price parked right on the 7545 magnet. The cap is a long way up at 7700 and the floor sits down at 7400, so the whole fight is in the dense interest shelf between the magnet and the cap.

NQ carries the heaviest call-side book of the four and it still ran to the top of its expected week, which is its own kind of risk if Thursday surprises hawkish. The magnet sits at 30490 just under price and the real cap is a different planet up at 32000.

CL owns the loudest, widest book on the screen and the vol on it never came down. The magnet is stranded way up at 83.60 in a different era of the contract, the cap a relic at 101, and down at price the only thing that matters is the heavy interest stacked from 73 up to 81 and the real floor a long way under at 70.72.

GC spent the holiday session falling out the bottom of its own book, price now under the expected low with every option line of consequence sitting overhead. The magnet at 4340 caps every bounce, the heavy interest stacks 4250 to 4400, and the put crowd is leaning hard with the only real floor a long way down at 4000.

Never think you’re smarter than a dumb market. It will get dumber for sure. Cheers Friends.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

ES spent the week clawing back the prior week’s losses, dipped to 7247 early, then built its value back up at 7415 and closed at 7433. The week POC stacks right on the 7420 May POC, which is the shelf the dip-buyers chose to defend. First close back in striking distance of the value it lost, but the bounce stalled the second it hit the old floor.

NQ was the V. It dipped to 28227 early, then climbed back through all of the prior week’s damage and closed 29677, above the 29476 week VAH and a stone’s throw from the 29848 week high. It is the strongest of the four, the one the buyers chased hardest. The short crowd that pressed the lows got run over the whole way up.

CL was the holdout that finally cracked. It ran the early week near 92, then unwound the entire back half on the agreement headline and closed 84.30, sitting on the 84.13 week low with the whole week’s volume stranded up at 91.30. The war premium that held it up for three months is coming out a barrel at a time.

GC flushed to a fresh low at 4072 then clawed back to close 4231, holding above the 4175 week POC. The freefall paused, but the metal is still under every bit of May’s value and trading straight inverse to the ten-year. It is a rates bet now, nothing more, and it is waiting on Wednesday like everyone else.

Cross-asset read: One story did all of it, and it pointed the opposite way from last week. Soft inflation and a draft to bring the barrels back flipped the same dominoes in reverse, stocks ripped and the safe-haven bid kept bleeding out of gold because rising rates are the one thing it cannot fight. Crude got monetized as the supply-is-coming-back trade while the indices got bought as the war-risk-is-leaving trade. The equities recovered on rates, the metal sold on rates, and the only one in true free-fall is the contract with a signature pointed at its throat.

Positioning (data through midweek): Read the latest print as the book going into the bounce, not after it. The trader crowd fought the entire melt-up from the short side and was still leaning that way into the flush, and this V is exactly what a stranded short book does when it has to cover into strength. The fuel that drove the rip is mostly spent now, but a book that is still short is two-sided ammunition into Wednesday either way.

Vol: The fear gauge is back near the lows. The downside protection that paid on the way down got sold into the recovery, so it is cheap again right at the highs going into a new chair’s first meeting. Crude vol never came down and gold vol is set to expand the move, not dampen it. A market positioned for calm right into the one event that can break it is the part that bites. Size for a two-sided Wednesday.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. FOMC Wednesday 1:00 PM CT. A brand new chair’s first meeting and the override on every chart. No move is the base case, so the projections and the press conference are the whole event. Mark your levels cold and do not try to predict the man.

2. NQ round-tripped the flush. It closed back above the 29476 week VAH and never looked back. While it holds that line the path points at the 29848 week high and the broken value overhead. Lose 29240 and the V starts to look like a lower high instead.

3. ES stalled at value. The bounce ran straight into the 7415 week POC stacked on the May POC and stopped cold. Above 7470 the recovery has room toward the broken 7524 value. Under 7385 the week gets heavy in a hurry.

4. Crude is in free-fall on the agreement. It closed on the 84.13 week low with the whole week’s volume stranded overhead and nothing recent underneath. A signed deal gaps it lower on the open. The only thing that reverses it fast is the talks falling apart.

5. Gold is a pure rates bet. It bounced off the 4072 flush low but everything from May is overhead supply. Wednesday moves it as hard as it moves the indices. 4175 holds the bounce, 4284 gets it back into the broken range.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES dug out of the hole all week and ran the bounce straight into the 7415 week POC, where the May POC sits on the same tick, and stalled. Reclaim 7443 Friday VAH and 7470 week VAH and the recovery has room to the 7491 week high, then the broken 7524 prior week value, with the 7624 prior week POC the wall where the whole melt-up’s volume now sits as supply. Lose 7385 June VAL and the week turns heavy again, with 7366 the Friday low and 7338 May VAL the first real shelf under it. Below 7338 the air opens to 7326 week VAL, then 7247 week low, and 7199 May low is where the month actually built its volume.

NQ:

NQ acted like nothing happened. It reclaimed the 29476 week VAH on the way back up and closed leaning on the 29760 Friday high. Hold 29476 and the 29848 week high is the gate, and taking it opens the 29948 prior week VAL and the long climb back to the 30590 prior week POC, the floor that broke and is a ceiling now. Lose 29240 May POC and the bounce loses its footing, with 28974 the prior week low, then 28600 week POC where this week built its base. Below 28600 the 28465 week VAL and 28337 May VAL stack close, and losing them reopens the vacuum to the 27614 May low. There is almost nothing between the week base and the May value.

CL:

Crude closed the week dead on the 84.13 low with the entire week’s volume stranded up at the 91.30 POC, which means price fell clean out of its own value and never looked back. The reclaim that matters first is 86.35, the May low that held all last month and is overhead resistance now, then 87.38 week VAL gets it back into the week’s range. Above that the 90.86 prior week VAL and the 91.30 week POC are the distant overhead and the bounce is pure headline. Lose 84.13 and there is no recent volume to lean on, it is price discovery down to the spring’s old value at 82.58 April VAL, and below there the 77.21 April low is the only structure left.

GC:

Gold bounced off the 4072 flush low and is hanging just above the 4175 week POC, the line that defines whether the bounce has legs. Reclaim 4256 Friday high and 4284 week VAH and the next step is 4338, the prior week low that is resistance now, then 4439 prior week VAL into the 4500 prior week POC and 4532 May POC, where the long crowd keeps trimming every rally. Lose 4175 and the 4073 week low and flush low come right back, and below there it is fresh price discovery with no volume to catch it.

The White Van Stuff

The book flipped back this week. The crowd that loaded downside protection on the selloff dumped it into the rally, so the pin is back on stocks and the amplifier got switched off on the indices. It stayed on for crude, where the book is still loaded for downside and every leg lower greases the next.

ES is back inside the long-side pin it gave back on the flush, with the book leaning slightly to the call side and protection cheap again. The cap is up at 7550, the magnet sits below at 7360, and price is parked in the dense heavy-interest shelf between them. That is a setup that wants to grind sideways, right up until Wednesday’s print blows the pin apart.

NQ already cleared the structural call line it lost on the flush, so the overhead that matters now is the old value shelf up at 30200 to 30500 and the expected high near 30112. The magnet still sits way down at 28950, which tells you how far value ran from price on the V. It is the most call-heavy book of the four, and that is its own kind of risk into a hawkish surprise.

Crude is still trading with the amplifier on, the book loaded for downside and the vol fattest on the board. It lost the 85 floor and there is nothing but heavy-interest air down to the 82 expected low. The 91 magnet is a different zip code now, which is exactly what a contract in free-fall looks like on the book. Do not trust a single poke through either edge with vol this fat.

Gold is pinned under a stack of heavy interest from 4250 up to 4300, with the magnet at 4345 capping every bounce. The book is still tilted to the put side and the long crowd keeps feeding rallies into that 4345 line. The floor is a long way down at 4000, so the whole fight is in this tight band at the lows.

The protection is cheap again, the book is long again, and the calendar has a brand new chair running his first meeting on Wednesday. There is a line from Rounders that fits the week. If you can’t spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker. Mark your levels and know which side of the table you SHOULD be sitting on. Personally? My vibes going into this week are as follows:

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Week That Was

ES ran to a fresh 7632 record by Tuesday and camped up there for four days, then Friday opened 7547 and bled the whole session to 7379, closing 7400. The week POC built up at 7624 with value down to 7524, and Friday is the first close below that entire value area in the entire run. The melt-up had its tenth week lined up and never got it off the ground.

NQ did it with more violence in both directions. It tagged 30807 Wednesday, the highest print in its history, then Friday opened 30035 and never looked up, trading to 28974 and closing 29016. The 30590 week POC is a ceiling now, the round 30000 it defended for two straight weeks broke on the open, and the whole week’s value got left overhead.

CL was the lone holdout and it still closed soft. It ran to 96.58 midweek on the Strait headline, then faded the back half and closed 90.24, a tick under the 90.86 week VAL. Up on the week, under its own value, and entirely hostage to the next overnight statement out of the talks.

GC got taken apart. It opened the week at 4533 and went one direction, losing 4409 prior-week support and printing 4338 Friday, the weakest gold has looked all year, closing 4343 with the week POC at 4500 now well overhead. Higher-for-longer is kryptonite for the metal and the long crowd keeps trimming into every bounce.

Cross-asset read: One number did all of it. Jobs ran hot, yields jumped, and every trade that depended on a friendly Fed reversed on the same candle. The chip complex led the unwind, gold lost its safe-haven bid because rising yields are the one thing it cannot fight, and crude was the only one left standing because it answers to the Strait, not the ten-year. The melt-up and the safe haven died on the same print. That is the tell.

Positioning (June 2 data): This print is from Tuesday, so read it as the book going into the drop, not after it. The trader crowd was already leaning short both indices, net short the S&P by a wide margin and net short the NASDAQ by less, and for nine weeks that was the losing side that kept getting carried out. Friday it finally paid. The catch into next week is that shorts already on the board are fuel for a bounce the second they decide to cover.

Vol: The fear gauge went from under 16 to 21.51 in a single session and the cheap protection that defined the melt-up is gone. Equity books are bid for downside now, crude and gold vol never came down, and nothing about this tape is sleepy anymore. Size for two-sided overnights and gap risk on every print.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. CPI Wednesday 7:30 CT. The override on everything. A hot number confirms the rate scare and the indices keep bleeding. A soft one and the dip-buyers get their excuse back. Mark your levels cold before it prints. Do not try to predict it.

2. NQ 30000 is a ceiling now. The round number it defended for two weeks broke on Friday’s open and the whole week’s value sits overhead. As long as price is under it the path of least resistance points down toward the May value. The first reclaim that means anything is 29828.

3. ES below the week’s value. Friday closed under 7524 for the first time in the run. While price is under it, the 7624 week POC is supply, not support, and the May POC at 7420 is the line Friday died on. The reclaim of 7524 is what says the dip-buyers showed up.

4. Gold at 2026 lows. It lost last week’s entire range and there is no volume underneath 4338. The metal trades straight inverse to yields now, so it is a live read on whether the rate scare sticks. 4409 for a reclaim, 4338 for the break.

5. Crude’s lonely bid. It is the only thing that held, and it held on the headline, not the tape. The week VAL at 90.86 is the line. Above it crude keeps its premium, below 88.68 the war bid is unwinding with everything else.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES spent the whole week above 7524 and lost it Friday for the first time in the run, closing 7400 right on the May POC at 7420. Reclaim 7524 week VAL and the drop was a flush, with 7595 prior week POC and the 7624 week POC the targets overhead, though that week POC is a wall of supply now, not a level to chase. Hold under 7420 and the week stays heavy, with 7379 the week low and 7338 May VAL the first real shelf below it. Lose 7338 and the air opens to the 7199 May low where the month actually built its volume. Wednesday’s number is the button on all of it. Do not be a hero below 7338 into a hot print.

NQ:

NQ is the one that broke the cleanest. It defended 30000 for two weeks and lost it on Friday’s open, closing 29016 under the 29240 May POC. Get back above 29240 and the bounce targets 29828 prior week VAL and the 29948 week VAL, with the 30590 week POC a ceiling a long way up. Stay below 29240 and the 28974 week low is the gate, and losing it opens the vacuum to 28337 May VAL with the 27614 May low underneath that. There is almost no volume between the week low and the May value, which is exactly why this one travels in a straight line when it goes. Wednesday decides whether the air below gets filled this week.

CL:

Crude is the only one that closed green on the week and it still finished under its own value. It closed 90.24, a hair below the 90.86 week VAL, after rejecting 96.58 midweek. Reclaim 90.86 and the 93 week POC and 93.90 prior week POC are the overhead, with 96.58 the week high above that. Lose the 88.68 prior week VAL and the 86.35 floor that held all of last month is the target, and below there it is price discovery. The whole contract still hangs on the headline, so the bounce setups are headline-dependent and the breakdown is structural. Size for the gap on every overnight.

GC:

Gold is in free fall and sitting on the 2026 low at 4338. It lost last week’s entire range, the 4409 prior week low is overhead now, and 4343 is where it closed with nothing but air underneath. A reclaim of 4409 gets it back into last week’s range and 4439 week VAL is the next step, with the 4500 week POC and 4532 May POC the real supply where the long crowd keeps trimming. Below 4338 there is no recent volume to lean on, it is fresh lows and price discovery from there. The metal is a pure rates trade now, so Wednesday’s print moves it as hard as it moves the indices. No knife-catching this week.

The White Van Stuff

The book flipped this week. For two months the options crowd was positioned for nothing to go wrong and that positioning pinned every dip. After Friday it is the other way around. The protection that was dirt cheap a week ago got bid in a hurry, the fear gauge closed at 21.51 after sitting under 16, and the equity books are now built so the next push gets chased instead of faded. Three of the four are sitting on or under their floors with the amplifier switched on.

ES closed Friday dead on the 7400 floor with the book loaded better than three to one in downside protection. Lose 7400 with the amplifier on and there is nothing structural until the 7322 expected low and the cluster right under it. The cap is all the way up at 7600 where the whole melt-up’s call selling still sits, and the magnet at 7545 is overhead now instead of a pin.

NQ is the violent one. It lost the floor that held it for two weeks and that old support at 29400 is overhead resistance now. The magnet sits way up at 30175, which tells you exactly how far value ran from price, and the expected band is the widest of the four in both directions. This is the contract that moves first and asks questions later.

Crude is the one still trading its own story. It is pinned under the 91 magnet with protection still bid near the highs of the year, so the expected band is wide on both sides. The 105 cap is a different zip code and the 85 floor is the line the breakdown actually needs. Do not trust a single poke through either edge with vol this fat.

Gold got the worst of it. It is sitting on the 2026 low with the magnet up at 4475 and the floor right underneath at 4272, so the whole fight is in a tight zone at the lows. The long crowd is still bleeding out of it, and rallies into the 4475 magnet are where the supply waits.

Friday was the punch. Mark your levels before the next one lands.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Week That Was

ES ran the short week from a 7515 low to a 7611.75 high and closed Friday at 7593.75, glued to the top of the range. Week POC built up at 7536 with value 7518 to 7577, and price spent Thursday and Friday parked above that value the whole way. It never traded with the low after Tuesday.

NQ did the same thing with more violence, running 29826 to 30536 and closing Friday at 30364. It cleared 30000 for the first time on Wednesday and never gave it back, building week POC right on that round number. The crowd that loaded short into April’s lows just watched its last line of defense flip into a floor.

CL was the week’s car wreck. It traded as high as 94.70 early and closed Friday at 86.80, sitting on the 86.35 week low with nothing underneath but April’s old value. The whole week’s volume sits up at 93.90, which means price fell completely out of its own value area and never came back. Worst month for the contract since the Covid crash, all on the headline that the Strait reopens and the barrels come back.

GC was the one two-way fight. It puked to 4409 on Thursday, the weakest gold has looked since March, then turned and closed Friday at 4590 back above the week VAH at 4584. Week POC 4532 lines up exactly with the month POC. The bounce is real, but the April value up at 4708 still caps it and the long crowd keeps trimming.

Cross-asset read: The tell of the week is that a hot inflation print on Thursday could not lay a glove on the indices. The number ran to the highest year-over-year in nearly three years and still matched what everyone expected, so the tape treated no-new-surprise as a green light and made record highs into it. The AI names did the heavy lifting, Dell and Micron and the chip complex, while crude got monetized as the de-escalation trade and gold round-tripped its own panic. Three of four are stretched. The question into next week is whether stretched becomes more stretched, or whether 30000 on NQ and the record on ES finally pull a two-way fight out of dirt-cheap vol.

Vol: Equity vol is on the floor. The fear gauge closed the week at 15.74, with ES one-month at 12.41 percent and NQ at 19.78, which is about as cheap as protection gets this cycle. That is the setup that bites: nobody is paying up for downside right at the highs into a jobs Friday. Crude vol is the opposite, still bid hard near 57 percent because the contract has no idea where it settles once the headline stops moving it. Gold vol is set up to expand the move rather than dampen it. Size for a two-sided week and gap risk on every overnight.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. NQ 30000. The round number it cleared Wednesday is now the week POC and the line the whole melt-up rests on. Hold it and the next stop is the 30536 record, then clean air. Lose it on a Monday gap-fill and the 29828 week low opens, with the prior week’s value at 29377 the real catch. The crowd that covered 14,000 shorts into this is the fuel either way.

2. ES record at 7612. Friday closed a hair under it. Above it there is no overhead volume left, which is exactly when these things either go vertical or fail on the first poke. Watching whether the breakout holds a session or fades back inside the 7536 week POC.

3. Crude trying to find a floor. Price closed on the 86.35 week low with April’s old value the only structure left underneath. The reclaim that matters is 88.89 week VAL. Above it the bleeding stops for a minute. Below 85 April POC and the next real shelf is 82.58. The deal headline drives the whole thing either direction, so size accordingly.

4. Gold’s 4532 line. The week POC and month POC sit on the same price, which makes it the gate. Hold above it and Friday’s bounce extends toward the 4627 week high. Lose it and the 4409 week low comes back into play fast. The April value up at 4708 still caps the upside.

5. Cheap vol into a jobs Friday. The fear gauge at 15.74 and equity protection near the lows of the cycle means the market is positioned for nothing to go wrong, right at the highs. Payrolls Friday is the print that can pull a two-sided move out of a one-way month. You do not need to predict it. You need your levels marked cold before it prints.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

7536-week POC is the line that defines the melt-up. Above 7577 week VAH price holds the posture it closed with, and the 7611.75 week high is the only thing between price and clean air. Take that and there is no overhead volume to lean on, which cuts both ways. Below 7536 the first real test is 7518 week VAL, then 7491 prior week close and 7448 prior week VAH. Below 7425, where the prior week POC stacks on the month POC, the air pocket opens down to 7338 month VAL and the deep 7160 April POC is where the real volume lives.

NQ:

30000 is the whole story. It is the round number, the week POC, and the line the short cover happened around. Above 30270 week VAH price keeps pressing the 30536 record. Take it and clean air opens overhead. Below 30000 the 29828 week low is the first catch, then 29553 prior week close and 29377 prior week VAH. Below 29240, where the prior week POC meets the month POC, the vacuum down to 28337 month VAL and the deep 27400 April POC opens up. That is a long way down with very little in between, which is the risk of buying a vertical melt-up at the highs.

CL:

There is no support in here, only an old value area from April. Price closed on the 86.35-week low. The reclaim that matters is 88.89 week VAL, and above that 92.25 April VAH and the distant 93.90 week POC are the real overhead. Below 86.35 the 85 April POC is the magnet right underneath, then 82.58 April VAL is the floor, and below it there is air to the 77.21 April low. The deal headline is the only thing that reverses this quickly, so the bounce setups are headline-dependent and the breakdown setups are not.

GC:

4532 is the gate, the week POC and month POC on the same tick. Above 4584 week VAH price keeps the Friday reversal alive toward the 4627 week high, and above that the 4708 April value is the real cap with the 4810 month high beyond it. Below 4532 the 4474 month VAL and 4455 week VAL stack close together, and losing 4455 puts the 4409 week low back in play. The long crowd is still trimming, so rallies into the April value are where the supply lives.

The White Van Stuff

The options book is built tight overhead on equities and price is pressing right into it. ES is parked under its 7600 cap, NQ already cleared its 30300 cap and is leaning on the 30400 same-day line, gold punched back above its same-day cap on the Friday bounce, and crude is pinned to a heavy-interest shelf with its vol still bid. None of these are walls, they are where the size sits, and price pressing into that size at the highs with cheap protection is how you get a fast move either direction.

ES sits right under the 7600 cap with the 7641 expected high above it and the magnet down at 7495 well underneath. Pressing the cap with vol this cheap means a poke through 7600 has very little in the way until the 7625 to 7700 shelf. The 7200 put floor is a different zip code.

NQ already did to its cap what ES is thinking about. Price cleared the 30300 line and is leaning on the 30400 same-day cap, with the 30685 expected high the next real surface and the 31000 shelf beyond. Underneath, the flipped 30300 cap and the heavy-interest clusters are the first catches, and the magnet sits way down at 29240.

Crude is hugging the 86 to 88 heavy-interest shelf below its 91.75 magnet, with vol bid near 57 percent so the expected range is wide on both sides. The 92.50 same-day cap and the distant 105 cap are the overhead, and the 80 put floor is the deep structural line if the breakdown extends. Wide vol means the bands are not tight, so do not trust a single poke through either edge.

Gold cleared its 4566 same-day cap and the 4560 expected high on the Friday close, which flips both into support if the bounce holds. The 4666 cap is the real overhead. Underneath, the 4472 magnet lines up almost exactly with the 4467 put floor, so that 4467 to 4472 zone is the line the bounce cannot lose without giving the whole thing back.

See y’all Sunday night at 8pm for SUNDAYTICKS.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Week That Was

Last week had two stories stacked. The first half was the recovery from the prior Friday’s record reversal. ES and NQ both rebuilt through Tuesday and Wednesday to within striking distance of the cycle highs. Then NVDA reported Wednesday after the bell. $81.6B revenue, 85% YoY, $80B buyback, upbeat chip-sales guide. The stock dipped on margin worries and the index futures used it as the excuse to take Thursday to record close on the Dow with ES tagging 7524 and NQ printing 29749 within a hair of last week’s all-time. Then Friday’s half-session before Memorial Day did the second story: gold gave back another leg, crude dumped through 100 and through 95 in the same session ending at 97, and the weekend headlines on the agreement framework set up the gap-up tape we walked in to this morning.

ES opened the week at 7430 and closed Friday’s half-day at 7484, up 54 net on a week with a wide 7354 to 7524 range. Week POC built at 7425 sitting right on the May POC 7420, value 7375 to 7453. The 7354 weekly low was Monday’s flush before the rebuild. Trend day character Thursday into the half-day pulse Friday.

NQ opened at 29030 and closed Friday at 29520, up 490 net on a 28663 to 29749 range that visited the prior week’s low Monday then ripped back to within 33 of the cycle high Thursday. Week POC 29240, value 28838 to 29348. The short crowd that was loaded going into the prior reversal covered hard. NQ positioning closed 14,000 shorts in one week.

CL opened the week at 102.85 and closed Friday at 97, down $5.85 on a week the 100 line failed for real. Week range 94.73 to 105.21. Week POC 102 paired with May POC 98 directly. The 100 breakout from two weeks ago is now broken from above and the prev month POC at 90.90 is the next real magnet underneath. Trend down day Thursday and Friday.

GC opened at 4540 and closed Friday at 4510, down $30 net on a week range 4455 to 4593. Week POC 4542, value 4498 to 4554. The cycle peak at 4917 still caps the bigger picture and the long crowd keeps shedding. The April low at 4128 is the deeper destination if 4455 cracks.

Cross-asset read: The cleanest tell of last week is what happened around NVDA. The numbers were a beat and a buyback and the stock barely budged, which the algos read as the AI trade getting tired. Then Thursday the indices ripped to record on Dow anyway because de-escalation matters more than NVDA right now. Crude finally took 100 off the table and gold kept selling on the same yield move. Three of four instruments closed Friday in the middle of last week’s range. Then the weekend handed the indices a Sunday rip on the deal framework and crude got steamrolled on the same headline. The question into next week is whether the deal closes and the moves extend, or it falls apart and the gap fills before Tuesday’s open.

Positioning (data as of 2026-05-19): The short side on S&P stayed loaded at 113,960 net short, only covering 2,624 contracts through the rebuild. The NQ side blinked. They went from 19,793 net short to 5,770 net short in one week, covering 14,023 contracts as price ripped to within 33 of the cycle high. That cover happened BEFORE the weekend gap. Coming in Tuesday morning, the NQ shorts are looking at price well above their reduced-short level with the cycle high already taken out in Globex. Gold’s long crowd is shedding fast at 148,660 net long, down 16,000 from the prior report as yields kept ripping. Crude positioning on ICE WTI is 9,268 net long, flat to slightly long going into the de-escalation tape.

Vol: Equity vol is sitting right where you would not want it. ES IV 13.65% and NQ IV 19.97% going into a Core PCE print and a deal announcement window. Gold is set up to expand below the structural cap rather than dampen. Crude IV is still bid hard at 80.75% because the contract has not figured out where to settle.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. The deal headline window. Trump said Saturday a 60-day ceasefire extension framework is largely negotiated and the Strait reopens with Iran selling oil freely. Sunday he walked it back saying he will not rush it. Both sides of that statement live in this week’s tape. Headline either way moves crude and equities in opposite directions intraday.

2. NQ 29749 cycle high retest. Sunday Globex already cleared it on the gap. The line that matters going into Tuesday’s RTH open is whether the breakout holds with volume or fades back inside last week’s value at 29348. The short side covered 14,000 last week. If they fold the rest, NQ 30,000 is in play. If price gets faded back below 29500 the cover trade reverses.

3. Crude 100 from below. The line that capped four weekly attempts then flipped and then failed and then got steamrolled is now overhead. Watching where price settles versus 100. Above 100 means deal optimism is being faded. Below 95 with conviction means the prev month POC at 90.90 is the next destination and the long crowd that piled in over $100 is fully underwater.

4. Gold 4498 last week VAL. Gold puked through every layer last week and closed at 4510. Last week’s VAL at 4498 is the line the longs need to defend to keep the cycle alive. Below 4455 last week low and the April distribution starts to unwind. The cycle peak at 4917 still caps the bigger picture.

5. Core PCE Thursday 7:30 AM CT. The Fed’s preferred inflation print into a 30Y at 5.197% and a 10Y at 4.687%. Yields holding above last week’s bid keeps pressure on equities and gold. Yields cooling and the deal closes and the rally extends one more leg.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

7484 last week’s close paired with the 7483 May VAH, the line Sunday Globex jumped over to settle at 7562. Above 7524 last week high holds we extend through 7540 the prior week high cluster and 7555 expected high overhead and the target opens above 7600 in clean air. Above 7484 holds but 7524 caps we work the 7484 to 7524 chop range. Below 7484 fails and 7453 last week VAH catches the first leg, then 7425 last week POC paired with 7420 May POC is the structural gate. Below 7420 we lose 7375 last week VAL and 7354 last week low opens the next leg, then air to 7282 prior week VAL and 7160 April POC where the real volume sits.

NQ:

29520 last week’s close, the line Sunday Globex jumped 460 above to settle at 29979 right under the 30000 structural cap. Above 29749 last week high holds the breakout extends through 29930 expected high into 30000 in clean structure with 30250 the next options shelf above. Above 29520 holds and 29749 caps we work the 29520 to 29749 chop range. Below 29520 fails and 29348 last week VAH catches the first leg, then 29240 last week POC is the gate paired with 29300 May POC. Below 29240 we lose 28838 last week VAL and 28663 last week low opens the cascade, then 28587 May VAL and air to 27622 April high stacks next, then 27400 April POC where the multi-month volume sits. The short side already covered 14,000.

CL:

100 the line that capped four weekly attempts, then flipped, then failed, and now sits overhead as the structural ceiling. Above 95.98 May VAL holds the rebuild works through 96.66 prior week VAL into 97.96 last week VAL paired with 97 last week close. Above 100 the deal optimism is being faded and 102 May POC catches the move with 105.21 last week high above. Below 95 fails and 94.73 last week low cracks, then air opens to 93.21 prior week VAL and 92.83 prior week low. Below 92.83 we lose 90.90 prev month POC the deep magnet, then 88.75 the long-term level where the real volume sits with 84.69 April VAL the structural floor underneath.

GC:

4498 last week VAL, the line gold needs to defend to keep the cycle alive. Above 4542 last week POC paired with 4550 May POC holds the rebuild works through 4554 last week VAH into 4593 last week high. Above 4593 we extend to 4654 April VAH and 4698 May VAH with 4717 April high the deeper test. The cycle peak at 4917 still caps the bigger picture. Below 4498 fails and 4469 May VAL catches the first leg, then 4464 April VAL stacks, then 4455 last week low is the gate. Below 4455 we lose air to 4128 April low where the long crowd from prev month POC 4600 finally folds. Yields ripping means gold keeps selling.

The White Van Stuff

The positioning cage rebuilt above price on equities through last week and the weekend rip cleared the structural caps on NQ. Gold is set up to expand moves below the structural cap rather than dampen. Crude vol stays bid at IV 80% with the contract structurally untethered from same-day positioning until the headline tape settles.

ES sits 7562 above the 7500 same-day cap and the 7555 expected high, with 7590 the same-day cap stacked tight as the next overhead surface. The 7600 all-expiry cap sits above. The 7395 magnet and 7200 floor sit well underneath.

NQ punched clean through 29500 same-day cap and 29930 expected high overnight to settle 29979 right under the 30000 all-expiry cap. The 30250 next shelf is the upside catch above the cap. The 28960 magnet and 28000 floor sit well underneath as the deeper positioning surfaces.

Crude blew through every options floor on Friday and the weekend extended the dump. 100 same-day cap is overhead. 92 heavy interest cluster is right at price. The 88.75 magnet is the structural magnet underneath. Net positioning is still positive at +187M which is why the headline drives the next move either direction.

Gold settled below every options floor that mattered last week and the weekend bid only got it back to 4574, right under the 4580 magnet. Net positioning is still negative which means the contract expands moves rather than dampening them. The 4510 all-expiry cap is now below price after the bid. The 4450 floor and 4567 expected high are both broken in opposite directions.

May the odds be ever in your favor.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

“But equities don’t care about bonds?…..right?”

UPDATE: After some feedback, I have now made “The bracket” image that contains the key levels. This should make it easier to read and follow. I understand some of you found the narrative structure harder to read or just wanted the quick-hitter levels for the week or session.

The Week That Was

The week had two stories stacked on each other. Monday through Thursday was the eighth straight up week. The setup was clean. yields ripping, dollar bid, equities and gold getting carried out in the same move while crude finally got through 100 for real.

ES opened the week at 7410 and closed Friday at 7436, up 26 points net on a week that felt like a top. Week range 7363.25 to 7540. Week POC built at 7435.5, value 7363.5 to 7472. Friday closed sitting right on week POC after the overnight puke wiped out the prior session’s value area. Trend day character Thursday into a reversal day Friday.

NQ opened at 29305 and closed Friday at 29172, down 133 net but high-to-low Friday was 640 points. Week range 28742 to 29782, fresh weekly record on Thursday’s high. Week POC 29690, value 29179.25 to 29778. Friday parked on week VAL after the breakdown.

CL opened the week at 98.08 and closed Friday at 103.78, up $5.70 and through the 100 line that capped four prior weekly attempts. Week range 96.13 to 104.26. Week POC at 101.02, value 99.52 to 103.91. The line that mattered finally flipped. May POC 102 sits right under price as the new floor.

GC opened at 4681 and closed Friday at 4545, down $136. Week range 4539 to 4758. Week POC 4688, value 4664 to 4722. Friday’s overnight reversal cracked every layer of weekly structure. The cycle peak at 4917 still caps the bigger picture but the longs that were supposed to be selling on positioning got carried out instead.

Cross-asset read: The cleanest tell of the week is the simultaneous yield-up trade. Equities and gold got carried out in the same overnight move while crude finally cleared 100. That’s a real positioning shake. Three of four instruments broke from above in the same tape. The question into next week is whether Friday was the start of the unwind the spec community has been waiting on for two months, or one more flush before the trader crowd finally throws in the towel and gives the rally its squeeze.

Positioning (data as of 2026-05-12): The trader crowd on S&P added another 32,000 short contracts going into the eighth up week. Net short now 116,584 on S&P, biggest in the dataset. NQ flipped from net long 635 last report to net short 19,793 this report. They piled on shorts INTO the rip. Then Friday handed them their first real win in two months. Gold’s long crowd is loaded at 165,174 net long going into a yield-driven flush. Crude positioning is basically flat at 442 net long. The asymmetry on equities is the most loaded short positioning of the cycle going into a Fed event week.

Vol: The cage rebuilt below price on Friday. Implied bands broke from above on three of four instruments. Vol is no longer compressing, it’s repricing on the yield move.

The Calendar

Don’t forget about NVDA Earnings this week.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. The S&P trader crowd at record short. 116,584 contracts net short going into the eighth up week. The most loaded short positioning of the cycle. If they cover into next week’s tape, the rally extends one more leg. If they hold and add, Friday was the start of the unwind they spent two months waiting for.

2. Crude 100 holds as support. Crude cleared 100 for the first time in four weeks of attempts. Holding 100 next week is the test of whether the breakout is real or another headline pump. Below 100 and the May POC at 102 flips back to ceiling.

3. Gold 4584 prev week VAL. Gold puked through 4688 week POC and 4664 week VAL on the yield move. 4584 prev week VAL is the line the longs need to defend to keep the cycle alive. Below 4522 April low and the entire April distribution unwinds.

4. Yields and dollar. Friday’s move was a clean yield reprice. Three of four instruments broke from above on the same tape. Watch the 10Y and DXY into the week. Yields holding above Friday’s bid keeps pressure on equities and gold. Yields cooling and the spec-short squeeze comes back into play.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

7435 week POC, the line Friday’s overnight reversal parked on and the level the whole week revolves around. Above 7435 holds we work back through 7472 week VAH then 7507 prior Thursday VAL into the 7525/7526 yesterday POC and close cluster. Above 7526 the week-high retest opens through 7540 yesterday high in clean air with May VAH at 7530 the only structural cap in between. Below 7435 fails and 7427 prev week VAH stacks tight with 7420 prev week POC and May POC paired right under as the structural gate, then air opens to 7363 week low. Below 7363 the deeper test runs through 7327 May VAL, 7282 prev week VAL, then 7211 April VAH and 7160 April POC where the real volume sits.

NQ:

29180 week VAL, the line Friday’s dump parked on. Above 29180 holds the rebuild works through 29250 May VAH into 29476 mid-cascade then 29636/29690 yesterday VAL and POC paired tight on the week POC level. Above 29690 the run reopens through 29778 week VAH and 29782 yesterday high which is also week high in clean air. Below 29180 fails, 29142 yesterday low cracks, then 29001 prev week VAH is the structural gate at the line the rally had to take out to extend. Below 29001 we lose 28742 week low and 28670 prev week POC stacked, then the May POC at 27880 is the next floor with 27622 April high and 27400 April POC the multi-month structure below. Sixteen of seventeen green sessions ended in one Globex.

CL:

100 the line that finally flipped after capping four weekly attempts. Above 100 holds we work back through 101.02 week POC into 102 May POC and the 103.64 yesterday VAL cluster. Above 103.91 week VAH the upside extends through 104.22 May VAH and 104.26 week high, then 105.31 prev month close opens with 106.76 prev week high the deeper test toward 108.50 prev month high. Below 100 fails and the 99.52 week VAL stacks with April VAH at the same level, then 95.37 May VAL is the next floor before 95 prev week POC, then 89.70 April POC catches the deeper fade with 85.70 April VAL the structural floor. EIA Wednesday is the only scheduled crude event but the headline tape runs every day.

GC:

4584 prev week VAL, the line gold needs to reclaim to repair the weekly structure. Above 4584 holds we work back through the 4664 week VAL into 4688 week POC paired with April VAL on the same line, then 4696 May POC into 4722 week VAH. Above 4733 the prev week close opens, then 4758 week high and 4775 prev week high stack tight, with 4812 April POC the bigger ceiling and 4844 April VAH then 4917 cycle peak above. Below 4584 fails and the 4539 week low cracks, then 4522 April low opens the breakdown, then 4510 prev week low, then air to 4450 prior swing where the April long crowd finally goes underwater. Yields up means gold down.

The White Van Stuff

The yield-up trade rebuilt the positioning cage below price on three of four instruments overnight Friday. Dealer net gamma dropped 49% on ES and 79% on NQ in a single session. The wall is no longer the wall it was. Gold’s long crowd is still at 165,000 net long going into the same yield move that’s pulling them lower. Next week’s tape decides whether the trader crowd’s record short capitulates and gives the rally its squeeze, or holds and Friday extends.

ES sits 7436 right on the 7420 put floor and pivot pivot, with the 7500 call ceiling sitting 65 points overhead as the structural cap. Same-day expected band is plus or minus 70 handles into Monday.

NQ is parked 29172 below the 29175 put floor and the 29260 pivot pivot, with the 30000 call ceiling sitting 800 points overhead. The all-expiry put floor shifted DOWN 65 points to 29175 as Friday’s reversal repriced the floor. The positioning cage is now stacked below price by about 200 points.

Crude cleared 100 with conviction and the 102 same-day cap flipped to support after the rip. The 105 expected high tops the daily band, the 109.60 all-expiry call ceiling sits in clean structure above.

Gold settled 4545 below every options floor that mattered Friday. Put floor at 4675 and pivot at 4685 are both fully broken from above. The 4625 expected low is now overhead and the daily band tops at 4745, well above current price.

There are no two words more dangerous than “fully priced in.” Head on a swivel. React and don’t predict this week.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

SUNDAYTICKS EPISODE 02 TONIGHT

*NEW* - The Bracket: the trigger price, the cascade above, the staircase below, and the event that voids the read. Use it as the chart-side cheat sheet, not the whole story. Still playing with format. Open to feedback if it would be better as a table or image or just text.

The Week That Was

The week’s story was a strong April jobs print on Friday capping six straight up weeks for equities. Crude unwound the entire Strait premium from 108 down to 90 mid-week before settling 94.91 Friday. Gold went the other way and closed near the highs as longs added on the dip. The seventh straight up week happened with the trader crowd still loaded short the index. This is now squeeze fuel that won’t go away.

ES opened the week at 7250.50 and closed Friday at 7421, up 170 points and another 2.4% on top of the prior week’s record close. Week range 7199.25 to 7428. Week POC built right at 7420, value 7282.75 to 7427. Friday closed within a tick of the week POC and the all-time high. Trend day character on the print Friday with no real test below 7400.

NQ opened at 27854.50 and closed Friday at 29339.50, another 1,485 points of gain. Week high 29340.75 fresh, week low 27614.50. Week POC at 28670, value 27796 to 29001. Sixteen of seventeen sessions green now. The breakout retest at 27622 (April high) held early in the week and the rally extended through 29000 call ceiling like it wasn’t there.

CL opened the week at 102.82 and closed Friday at 94.91, down $7.91. Week range 90.30 to 106.76, a $16 round trip in five sessions. Week POC at 95.0 right where Friday closed. The headlines flipped enough times to clear out both sides of the book. The week ended with the entire war premium gone and the supply story back on the table.

GC opened the week at 4584.30 and closed Friday at 4733.40, up $149. Week range 4510.10 to 4775.20. Week POC at 4717.5, value 4584.6 to 4775.1. The April peak at 4917 still caps the bigger picture but the longs that were supposed to be selling into ceasefire optimism added instead. Three weeks of distribution turned into one week of accumulation.

Cross-asset read: Equities ripped on payrolls, crude unwound on de-escalation, gold ripped on positioning. Three different stories, three different trajectories. The cleanest tell going into next week is whether crude finds a real bid at 90 or keeps leaking. If crude stays soft and gold stays bid into a CPI print, that’s a signal longs believe inflation is sticky enough that the Fed can’t cut.

Positioning (data as of 2026-05-05): The trader crowd on S&P is still net short 83,995 contracts going into the seventh up week. They covered roughly 11,000 contracts from last week’s 95,000 net short, but they’re still loaded against a tape that won’t quit. The Nasdaq crowd flipped basically flat (635 net long) after running heavy short the prior weeks. Gold’s long crowd is loaded at 156,500 net long going into a 3.2% up week. Crude positioning is small at 4,663 net long. The squeeze fuel on equities is still real and the gold long side just got paid for it.

Vol: ES 30-day implied at 14.4%. NQ at 20.8%. Vol is compressing on equities while crude and gold stay jumpy on headline risk. The market is pricing calm into the CPI print. Sizing rules differ by instrument.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. CPI Tuesday 7:30 CT. The override on every read. April core is the print that decides whether the rate-cut math survives or the Fed’s hike-watch language gets credit. A hot print and the entire seven-week rally is on the table for retest.

2. The 7-up streak. ES and NQ at fresh records going into a CPI print. Sixteen of seventeen NQ sessions green. Streaks end on prints, not headlines. The asymmetric read is short-side hedges from Monday to Tuesday morning.

3. Crude 90 holds or breaks. Crude lost $14 from the war premium peak and closed 94.91 right on week POC. Below 90 (week low) and the 89.70 April POC opens fast. Holds 90 and crude is back in the prior month’s range awaiting the next headline.

4. The trader crowd’s S&P short. 84,000 contracts still net short going into a seventh up week. Squeeze fuel doesn’t dissipate without a cover, and a cover won’t happen at the lows. If they finally throw in the towel, that’s another leg up.

5. Gold’s stickiness through ceasefire. Gold ripped back through 4775 against the de-escalation narrative. The 4789 call ceiling and 4775 week high are the same area. Above 4789 with conviction and the long crowd has the wheel. Below 4717 week POC and the long-side excitement gets retested.

The Week’s Plan

7420 week POC, the level the whole week respected. Above 7420 we work through 7428 week high into 7475 cluster and 7486 expected top with 7500-7550 stacked above. Below 7420 fails, 7400 call ceiling flips back to support, then 7282 week VAL, then 7211 April VAH opens the gap retest with 7160 prev week POC the deeper pull. CPI Tuesday is the override.

The Bracket: Trigger 7420 (week POC, the line the whole week respects). Above 7420 holds the cascade runs 7428 week high, 7475 cluster, 7486 expected top, 7500 air. Below 7420 fails through 7400 call ceiling (now support), 7282 week VAL, 7211 April VAH. Voided by a hot CPI print Tuesday.

29000 the line the rally just punched through, now flipped to weekly support. Above 29000 holds we extend through 29250-29300 cluster into 29500 cap and 29716 expected top with 29750/30000 round-number air above. Below 29000 fails, 28691 May VAH stacks first with 28670 week POC, then 27796 week VAL opens the deeper test with 27622 April VAH the line that has to hold to keep the breakout retest intact. CPI is the override.

The Bracket: Trigger 29000 (week call ceiling, just flipped to support). Above 29000 holds we extend through 29250 cluster, 29500 cap, 29716 expected top, 30000 air. Below 29000 fails through 28691 May VAH, 28670 week POC, 27796 week VAL, 27622 April VAH. Voided by a hot CPI Tuesday breaking 29000 and running to 28670.

95.0 week POC, the line the unwind closed on. Above 95 we work back through the 96 / 97.5 / 98 cluster into the 99-100 ceiling, then 102 prev week POC if 100 breaks. Below 95 fails and 94 / 93 / 92 stacks the staircase, then 90.30 week low cracks and 89.70 April POC opens with 85.70 April VAL the deeper floor. Headline tape runs every day, EIA Wednesday is the only scheduled event.

The Bracket: Trigger 95 (week POC, the line the unwind closed on). Above 95 holds we work back through 96 nearby above, 98 cluster, 100 ceiling, 102 prev week POC. Below 95 fails through 93, 92, 90.30 week low, 89.70 April POC, 85.70 April VAL. Voided by the de-escalation tape reversing either direction with the headline shifting the range.

4733 Friday close sitting between 4717 week POC support and 4739 cluster cap. Above 4739 we work through 4775 week high into 4789 ceiling stacked with 4788 expected top, then 4812 April POC opens with 4844 April VAH and 4917 cycle peak above. Below 4717 fails and 4664 marks the first stop, then 4639/4614 cluster, then 4585 magnet, then 4584 week VAL where the entire week’s bid disappears. Below 4522 April low and the longs that just got paid this week start puking again.

The Bracket: Trigger 4717 (week POC, the floor the rally needs to hold). Above 4717 holds we extend through 4739 cluster, 4775 week high, 4789 ceiling, 4812 April POC. Below 4717 fails through 4664, 4585 magnet, 4584 week VAL, 4522 April low. Voided by a hot CPI Tuesday since that’s gold-bullish and equity-bearish at once and the cross-asset divergence breaks.

The White Van Stuff

ES sits 7421 right above the 7400 call ceiling that just flipped to support and below the 7415 same-day cap. Above 7425 (heavy interest, nearby above) the 7430 / 7450 / 7475 cluster opens the cascade through the 7486 expected top into 7500 / 7525 / 7550 heavy interest above the daily band. Below 7400 the structure flips back to the gap, and 7375 (heavy interest) catches first, then 7351 (today expected low), then 7350 (heavy interest) and 7300 (heavy interest) round-number cluster. Below 7275 (standard floor, all expiry and 0DTE) is where the rally has a real pricing problem. Tuesday’s CPI is the gun.

NQ blew through 29000 call ceiling during the week and now sits 29333 between the 29250 / 29300 interest cluster directly under price and the 29500 same-day cap above. Above 29400 the 29500 cap opens, then 29716 expected top tops the daily band, with 29750 / 30000 round-number heavy interest above as the air pocket. Below 29250 the 29200 / 29100 cluster catches first, then 29000 call ceiling now flipped to support, then 28948 expected low, then 28750 / 28700 heavy interest band. Below 28690 same-day pivot and the structural floor lives way down at 27000 standard floor. The rally extended past the ceiling on momentum that doesn’t care about the gamma map. CPI is the only thing that brings it back.

CL closed 94.91 right at the magnet 94.5 and the week POC. Above 95 the 96 nearby above catches first, then 97.5 / 98 heavy interest pair, then the 100 call ceiling clusters with 100.19 daily expected top and the 99 / 100 same-day caps. Past 100 the 103 heavy interest is the next reach toward the prior week’s 108 high, but that’s two days of strong bid away. Below 94 the 93 heavy interest, 92 heavy interest, then 90.65 expected low and 90 put floor catches at the week low. Below 90 the 89.5 / 87.5 / 87 / 85 staircase opens the deeper structural floor where the longs from prev-month value live.

Gold closed 4733 between the 4739 upside cluster cap directly above and the 4717 week POC support directly below. Above 4739 the 4764 nearby cluster catches first, then the 4775 week high / nearby above, then 4788 expected top and 4789 call ceiling stack on the same line. Past 4789 the 4814 / 4839 heavy interest pair sits in clean air toward the 4917 cycle peak. Below 4733 the 4717 week POC is the immediate support, then 4689 same-day cap (now flipped to floor from above), then 4664 heavy interest, then 4639 / 4614 heavy interest cluster catches. Past 4585 magnet, the 4584 week VAL opens the deeper test and the entire week’s bid disappears.

Lets have a good week. Not ready to put on the bear hat just yet. It’s taking alot for me to sit on my hands and not try to short this thing to 0. I don’t think its time yet. But my eyes are on 26,300-26200. See you tonight for SundayTicks.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

In lighter news, Tonight at 8pm CT we are launching the first official episode of SUNDAYTICKS. Live on Substack, YouTube, X, and Kick. We would love if you joined us for some fun, learning, and some LucidTrading account giveaways.

The Week That Was

April closed as the best month for equities since 2020. ES added 9.85%. NQ added 15.6%. Friday closed both at fresh records. Sixth straight up week on each, longest run since October 2024. The fuel was earnings. 84% of S&P companies have beaten EPS this season, the highest beat rate since Q2 2021, and earnings growth is printing 31% year over year against analyst desks that underwrote 8%. AAPL was Friday’s catalyst. Solid numbers, pulled the tape with it. NVDA and META lagged on the week. The leadership rotates, the index keeps grinding.

Crude was the wild card. Mid-week WTI ripped to $108.50 on Strait of Hormuz headlines, then puked back to $101.94 by Friday on ceasefire chatter. That’s a $6 round trip in three sessions. The supply story isn’t fixed and the headlines flip price 5% on a single tweet. EIA Wednesday gets watched. Anyone who got short crude into the Friday fade is hoping the talks actually produce something this time.

FOMC held 3.5 to 3.75% Wednesday in an 8-4 dissent vote. Four dissents, the most since 1992. Powell’s hot quote was that elevated oil prices “will push up overall inflation.” Translation. If crude doesn’t come back to earth, the Fed isn’t cutting. Year-end odds now sit at 10% chance of a cut and 6% chance of a hike. Pre-FOMC the hike odds were zero. The Fed is telling you they aren’t in a hurry and they’d rather hike into a re-acceleration than cut into one.

ES opened the week at 7186.25 and closed Friday at 7257.50, up 71 points on the week and another 1.0% on top of the prior week’s gain. Week range 7137 to 7301. Week POC built at 7160, value area 7142.50 to 7209.75. Friday hit a new record at 7301 then sold to 7255.50 and grinded back to settle. Inside-day character with sellers above the 7300 round number. The structural shelf is now 50 to 100 points above last week’s value.

NQ opened at 27410.75 and closed Friday at 27837.25, another 426 points of gain on top of last week’s 600. Week POC at 27400, week high 27917 (fresh all-time high), week low 27009.50. Friday was the breakout session and the first retest of the move sat right on April’s old high at 27622. Fifteen of sixteen sessions green on this thing now. Whoever was trying to short the highs got carried out again.

CL opened the week at 96.32, ripped to 108.50 mid-week on Hormuz headlines, then sold to 102.18 by Friday on ceasefire chatter. Week range 95.29 to 108.50, that’s a $13 swing in five sessions. Week POC at 99.90, value area 98.85 to 106.00. Friday was a 3% sustained-down day. The Strait stayed shut, the talks lit up, and crude took its $6 victory lap and gave half of it back.

GC opened the week at 4726.50 and closed Friday at 4623, down $103 on the week. Week range 4522.20 to 4728. Week POC at 4630, value 4553.40 to 4658.10. Sold off as the safety bid leaked. The April peak at 4917 is a lower-high vs the cycle. Friday bounced $30 off the day low which is the only positive thing to say. Three weeks of distribution.

Cross-asset read: Equities are at fresh records, crude is range-bound after a $13 swing, and gold gave back $103. The split between equities and gold (safety bid leaking) is the cleanest divergence on the screen heading into NFP. The crude tape is its own story, and it can flip on a tweet.

Positioning (data as of 2026-04-28). The S&P trader crowd is net short 95,367 contracts going into a 6th up week. They keep getting carried out. Cover risk is squeeze fuel. Gold’s long crowd is loaded at 153,000 net long going into a 2.2% down week. Anyone holding for the geopolitical premium is now back to last week’s value area. Crude positioning is small but the long side is real, 3,500 net long. Nasdaq positioning data didn’t print this week.

Vol: Vol is compressing on equities while crude and gold stay jumpy. Equities believe the rally. Commodities don’t. Sizing rules differ by instrument.

The Calendar

The Map and What I’m Watching

ES Friday hit a new record at 7301 then sold to 7255.50 and grinded back to settle at 7257.50. Textbook test-and-hold. The whole week built between 7142.50 and 7209.75. Above 7273 (Friday POC) and we go retest the highs. Below 7211 (April VAH) and the rally needs a real pullback to reset. The line in the sand is 7160. That’s week POC AND April POC AND the level value spent the most time at all month. Lose 7160 with conviction and 7137 (week low) is in play, then 7079.25 (prev week low) is the next shelf.

NQ broke to fresh all-time highs Friday and held. The Friday low at 27617.75 sits right on April’s high (27622). That’s the breakout retest, the cleanest level in the brief. Hold above 27622 keeps the trend intact. Lose 27622 and the 27453 week VAH is the next shelf, then 27434 (prev wk close), then 27400 (week POC = April POC = the line). Below 27400 the rally has a real problem and 27046 (week VAL) opens the air pocket to 27009 (week low). Above 27917 takes us into uncharted into the 28000 round number.

Crude is binary. Range was 95.29 to 108.50 in five sessions. Friday closed 102.18. Above 103.88 we head back toward 105/106 (where heavy options interest sits) and the week high. Below 99.30 the support runs to 95.29 (week low) then way down to 89.70 (April POC). The 89.70 number is real. That’s where crude lived for most of April before the geopolitical bid kicked in. Watch EIA Wednesday and headline tape all week.

Gold puked from 4732 down to 4522 last week and got bought back to 4623. The 4917 April high is a lower-high vs the cycle. Hold 4597 (Friday low / May low) and we work back toward the 4673 high then 4710 (prev wk VAL). Lose 4597 and the magnet at 4565 catches first, then 4553 (week VAL), then 4522 (week low / April low). Lose 4522 and the long crowd starts puking inventory, because they’ve been long and wrong since the 4917 cycle peak.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. NFP Friday 7:30 CT. The override on every read. Average hourly earnings is the line. Hot wages keep the Fed in hike-watch mode and that flips the rate-cut expectation entirely.

2. AMD Tuesday after-close + Palantir Monday after-close. AMD is the biggest single-name catalyst for NQ this week. Palantir sets the AI-tape tone for the rest of the prints. Don’t carry levered NQ longs into either reaction.

3. NQ 27622 breakout retest. Fresh ATH on Friday, but the Friday low sat right on April’s old high. Hold this and the trend stays clean. Lose it and the breakout isn’t real and the cluster down at 27400 comes into play fast.

4. Crude headline tape. The $6 round trip in three sessions tells you the news path matters more than anything else for CL this week. EIA Wednesday is the only scheduled event but the headline tape runs all week.

5. GC 4522 holds. The week low and April low are the same number. Lose 4522 with sellers behind it and the long crowd that’s been holding for the geopolitical premium starts puking. Above 4750 (prev wk POC) is the level they need back to feel alive.

The White Van Stuff

The gamma is in the room with us. On equities the options structure is positively setup. Net dealer hedging exposure on S&P jumped 46% week over week. They’re adding interest right at current price, biggest concentrations at 7245 and 7250. Below 7230 the dealer interest dropped meaningfully. That side just got cleared out. Translation. The market rebuilt its options structure ABOVE the rally. Above 7300 (the all-expiry call ceiling) you’re into a chase. Below 7170 (the magnet level) and downside opens up.

NQ saw the same +40% week. Heavy interest stacked at 27800/27750/27760. The 27710 level (the prior call ceiling) just lost a big chunk of dealer hedging. That’s the level that broke. Above 27800 sits the new same-day cap. Above 28000 is where the all-expiry call ceiling lives. The structural floor is way down at 25550 (the magnet), but the immediate floor on heavy positioning is 27500.

Crude options are messy. Structural ceiling at 110, structural floor at 85. Heavy interest stacked at 105/105.5/106 on the upside (the area where Hormuz news pushes hit) and at 101/102 (right at spot). Standard floor at 100, same-day cap at 110. The magnet level is way down at 88.25, where price would gravitate without geopolitical noise. We’re nowhere near calm pricing yet.

Gold ceiling sits at 4784.91, floor at 4436. Heavy interest at 4685 (just above current), 4575, 4655. The magnet at 4565.60 sits just below Friday’s low. If gold loses 4597 the magnet is the obvious next pull. Same-day cap at 4735, the level that caps any short-term bounce.

The Week’s Plan

ES: Above 7301 (Friday/May high) and the chase extends with 7323 as the expected top, then 7350 and 7375 where heavy interest stacks. Hold 7257.50 (Friday close) keeps the trend. Lose 7211 (April VAH) and 7194.50 (prev week close) is the first shelf, then 7170 (magnet level), then 7160 (the line, week POC = April POC). Below 7160 with conviction and 7137 (week low) is in play. NFP Friday is the override on every read.

NQ: Above 27917 takes us into the 28000 round number where the call ceiling stacks, with 28172 as the expected top. Hold 27622 (Friday low / April high / breakout retest) and the trend stays clean. Lose 27622 and 27500 is the next shelf, then 27434 (prev week close), then 27400 (week POC = April POC = the line). Below 27400 the rally has a real problem and 27046 / 27009 are the air pocket. AMD AMC Tuesday is the biggest single-name catalyst this week. Don’t carry size into it without a plan.

CL: No directional lean. Range is 95.29 to 108.50 and price is in the middle. Above 103.88 we work back toward 105/106 (heavy interest cluster) and the 108.50 week high. Below 99.30 (Friday low) the downside stack pulls to 95.29 (week low), then 89.70 (April POC where crude actually lived all month). EIA Wednesday and headline risk all week. The setup is reactive, not predictive.

GC: Hold 4597 (Friday low / May low) and we work back toward 4673 (Friday high), 4710 (prev wk VAL), 4732 (prev wk close), and 4750 (prev wk POC) is the level the long crowd needs back. Lose 4597 and the magnet at 4565.60 catches first, then 4553 (week VAL), then 4522 (week low / April low). Below 4522 the long crowd starts puking. If equities keep ripping AND ceasefire holds, gold stays heavy.

Lets have some fun this week. And Bulls? Maybe let the sellers win for at least a session or two.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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My vibes going into this week:

Last Week

The week was semis and tech going straight vertical. Equities pushed up on Trump extending the Iran ceasefire indefinitely, then pulled back Friday when the Pakistan talks started looking shaky. Crude didn’t get the memo. The Strait of Hormuz stayed shut, both sides traded ship-seizure accusations, and WTI rallied 7% on the week into the weekend. Gold did the opposite. Friday closed gold at 4722. The asset that was supposed to be the safety hedge gave back $195 in five days, while the asset that was supposed to fade on peace ripped higher. That’s the whole tell. The market is pricing the deal but the physical oil tape isn’t.

ES opened the week at 7102.50 and closed Friday at 7194.75. Range was 7079 to 7189, basically a 110-point chop above last week’s value. Week POC built at 7155, value area 7126-7167. Friday was an inside day. The story is consolidation just under last Friday’s 7185 high. Either we break out or we slide back into the prior week’s value.

NQ opened at 26599 and closed Friday at 27435.00, another 600 points of gain on top of last week’s 1500. Week POC at 26720, week high 27363, week low 26535. Friday was a trend-up day that printed the week’s high right at the close. Fourteen out of fifteen sessions green on this thing. Whoever was trying to short the highs got carried out again.

CL opened the week at 88.15, ground higher all week, and closed Friday at 94.40. Week range 85.45 to 98.39. Week POC at 87.40, value area 85.69-93.93. The week’s narrative is the war premium reflating because nothing actually got resolved. The Strait stayed closed. That’s $6.25 of gain on the week, 7.1%. Closes the door on last week’s “peace trade” entirely.

GC opened the week at 4811 and closed Friday at 4722.30, down $157 on the week. Week range 4672 to 4854. Week POC built at 4750, value 4694-4798. Friday was a sustained-down day, the kind of session where you can feel sellers leaning. The recent swing high two weeks ago was 4917, which was already a lower high vs March’s $5,338 cycle peak. We are now $200 below the swing high and $600 below the March top. Gold has been in a downtrend the whole month.

Cross-asset read: The split between equities/gold (peace-positioned) and crude (war-positioned) is the cleanest divergence on the screen. Either crude is wrong and rolls over, or the other two are wrong and reprice. Do we figure out who’s lying heading into a FOMC and Mag7 week?

Positioning (week ending April 21, released Friday): As of last Tuesday, the trader crowd was net short 104,083 contracts on S&P. That data is six sessions stale across a week NQ added 600 points. Either they covered into the Friday rally and the squeeze fuel is gone, or they didn't and Wednesday's earnings reaction lights the next leg. The next COT release Friday May 2 settles it.

Vol: VIX is 19.31. Slightly elevated from where it was two weeks ago but nowhere near priced for what’s about to land.

The Calendar

Wednesday and Thursday are the entire week. Powell, four of the Mag7, Core PCE, GDP, and Apple all stacked inside thirty hours. Thursday alone is roughly 20% of the S&P 500 by market cap reporting earnings reactions into Core PCE.

Monday 4/27: Dallas Fed Manufacturing 9:30 AM CT. Light tape ahead of the main event.

Tuesday 4/28: Consumer Confidence 9:00 AM CT. ADP weekly 7:15 AM CT. API Crude after close.

Wednesday 4/29: Durable Goods 7:30 AM CT, GDP Q1 advance 7:30 AM CT, EIA Crude 9:30 AM CT, FOMC rate decision 1:00 PM CT, Powell press conference 1:30 PM CT. After the close: Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Visa.

Thursday 4/30: Core PCE 7:30 AM CT, Personal Income, Jobless Claims, Employment Cost Index 7:30 AM CT. Caterpillar and Mastercard before open. Chicago PMI 8:45 AM CT. Apple after the close.

Friday 5/1: ISM Manufacturing 9:00 AM CT. Baker Hughes rig count.

Weekly Structure

ES

ES has built a new shelf 50 points above last week’s POC and is sitting under the prior week’s all-time high zone. The first real defense is 7126 weekly VAL. Below that, 7079 weekly low and 7060 prior week POC are stacked within 20 points of each other. That’s the line that decides whether the breakout sticks. April POC at 7162 is essentially today’s price. Above 7189 and 7200 is open air, with 7250 as the next round number target.

NQ

NQ closed Friday at 27435, $70 above the week’s high. Globex on Sunday will tell you whether the breakout extends or whether the gap-up was the exhaustion print. First downside acceptance is 27010 weekly VAH, then 26720 weekly POC. Below 26535 weekly low and 26480 prior week POC sit inside 60 points of each other. That cluster is where any pullback gets bought or it doesn’t. Below it, the next real shelf is 25317 prior week VAL, $2000 lower. The waterfall is steep on the downside because the week’s value built so tight.

CL

Crude closed Friday at 94.40, sitting right at week VAH and just below the round 100 level that capped the week. Above 98.40 and 100 is the next test, with 105 (last week’s intraday high) as the upside cascade target. Below 93.93 weekly VAH the conversation moves fast back to 87.40 weekly POC, where the bulk of the week’s volume built. Below 85.45 weekly low and 84 prior week close sit inside a dollar of each other. That’s where the war premium fully reverses. Last Friday’s 78.97 low is the floor that matters if 85 fails.

GC

Gold is below week VAL going into Sunday Globex and well off the cycle peak. March’s $5,338 high is the actual top. Last week’s $4,917 was a lower high inside the broader downtrend. Friday close at 4722 is sitting in no-man’s-land between week VAL at 4694 and April month VAL at 4714. Below 4694 and 4672 weekly low is the line. Below 4672 there is no real volume shelf until April’s deeper range. Above the 4750 weekly POC and 4798 weekly VAH is where the bid would need to show up to argue the down move is done. The $5,338 peak is a different conversation entirely.

The White Van Stuff

The options market is pricing this week like it’s a normal week. It is not a normal week. The expected ranges and ceiling levels say one thing and the FOMC may say something different.

ES options: The upside is layered with cap structure. Same-day cap is 7225 with the upside ceiling at 7250 right above it. Above the ceiling, heavy interest stacks at 7255, 7264 expected high, 7275, 7300, and 7325. Five levels in 100 points. That is where any FOMC-driven gap up runs into a wall. Below price, the same-day magnet sits at 7130 and the expected low is 7126, with another heavy interest cluster at 7100-7103. Standard floor 7000 with a heavy interest level just below at 6998. Magnet level at 7045 is the in-between pivot if 7100 fails.

NQ options: Same-day cap is 27700 with a same-day floor at 26600 and a same-day magnet at 26790. Upside ceiling is also 27700. Expected daily range is 27080 to 27790. Heavy interest stacks at 27672, 27690, 28075, 28049, 26826. Nearest above are 27500 and 27750. Nearby below are 27250 and 27400. The 27672-27700 zone is the test. If buyers push through that, 28000 is the round-number target. If sellers defend it, the 27250 zone is the first real shelf.

CL options: Upside ceiling is 100, same-day cap also 100, standard floor 85, magnet at 88. Expected daily range is 89.28 to 99.52. Heavy interest at 90, 95, 89.50, 94, 99. The whole structure agrees the move is binary at 100. Above 100 with force and the next levels are 101 and 102. Below 89.50 the cascade goes 88 to 87.50 to 85.50 to 85.

GC options: Upside ceiling is 4982, standard floor is 4633, magnet at 4718 sits right at Friday’s close. Same-day cap is 4783 and same-day floor is 4633. Expected daily range is 4658 to 4790. Heavy interest stacks at 4733, 4683, 4688, 4658, 4673. The whole picture says gold is pinned between 4658 and 4790. Below 4633 and the put crowd starts paying attention. Above 4790 and the bounce trade gets oxygen.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. NQ Thursday gap on Mag7 reactions. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta all print Wednesday after the close. Whatever the aggregate read is, NQ gaps to it Thursday morning before Core PCE. That gap is the cleanest read on whether the leadership trade is intact.

2. Sunday 5pm CT Globex open. First read on whether the weekend headlines hold or flip again. The crude tape will tell you fastest.

3. NQ 27010 weekly VAH and 26720 weekly POC. Fourteen of fifteen sessions green is a streak that ends. If the earnings reaction sells off, those are the two acceptance levels on the cascade lower.

4. GC 4694 weekly VAL. Below it, gold has no volume shelf for a long way down. The cleanest read on FOMC tone in real time Wednesday afternoon.

5. CL 93-94 zone. Right where the week closed. Either crude breaks 90 lower and confirms the peace trade, or holds and drives 100 mid-week. The headline-risk variable lives here.

The Week’s Plan

ES: If Monday opens above 7155 weekly POC, look for 7167 VAH reclaim into the 7189 week high. If it loses 7126 weekly VAL on volume, the 7079/7060 cluster is your downside test. Above 7250 ceiling is where any FOMC gap-up runs into the layered cap (7255, 7264, 7275, 7300, 7325). Wednesday afternoon overrides anything that happened in the morning.

NQ: Above 27435 Globex print and the breakout extends, with the 27672/27700 ceiling as the first real test and 28000 round number above. Below 27010 weekly VAH and 26720 POC is in play. Below 26535/26480 cluster the leadership trade is unwound. The streak ends eventually. Don’t be short into Wednesday afternoon and don’t be fully levered long into Wednesday night.

CL: Above 94 with continuation and 100 cap is on. Above 100 with force and 105 is back in play. Below 90 and the peace trade reasserts, with 87.40 weekly POC and 78.97 prior week low as the cascade. Sunday Globex tells you which side.

GC: Below 4694 weekly VAL and there’s no shelf for $200. Above 4750 weekly POC and the down move is paused, with 4798 VAH and 4854 week high as the reclaim cascade. Thursday morning prints the cleanest FOMC read on the board.

It ain’t about how hard you hit. It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. That’s how winning is done.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

Friday I didn’t trade. I got off a plane midday and just laughed at the Hold my Beer the market decided to do. We talked last week about it looking like a lockout rally. We talked about how I didn’t think it made any sense to call a top. We talked about just when you think its getting silly, it can and will get even more ridiculous. Anyway, we watched ES print fresh all-time highs while crude bled 11% in ninety minutes on the Strait of Hormuz reopening news, and I honest to god thought we were getting another clean rally into the weekend and this week. Then, on Saturday tensions boiled over and flipped the whole plan. Globex in a few hours and everyone knows which way it gaps. Good luck with that.

Last Week

Three acts. Monday opened to a blockade headline and apparent talks collapse. CL spiked to $105 intraday, equities gapped down, and both reversed by the close. Tuesday’s PPI came in soft and the market decided it was going higher. Wednesday and Thursday were grind sessions. Friday Iran’s foreign minister declared the corridor “completely open,” S&P and NQ printed fresh ATHs, crude flushed to $78.97 inside a single session. Act three lasted twelve hours before the headlines reversed Saturday.

ES opened Monday at 6780, closed Friday at 7161.50. The Monday gap got filled by Tuesday lunch and the rest of the week was a staircase. 394 points of range, 306 of gain. Week POC built at 7060 where Wednesday and Thursday conversed. Friday cleared the week VAH at 7098 and the old ATH like neither mattered.

NQ gapped down to 24904 Monday, closed Friday at 26825.50. 1920 points of range, 1544 of gain, thirteen consecutive green sessions. Tech led on the input-cost disinflation tape. I got stopped out of a long at 25300 Tuesday morning before it ripped 1500 points. Paperhanded the move of the year again. Classic Nick.

CL was the asset of the week. Monday 105 high, Friday 78.97 low, close 82.59. $26.66 of range in five sessions. 14.5% dump. War premium went poof. The weekly profile never built a clean value area.

GC ground up all week, printed a new ATH at $4917.70 Friday, faded to close $4879.60. The fade was the “okay the deal is real” print. Then the deal wasn’t real. Monthly VWAP sits $110 below.

Cross-asset read: equities and crude closed Friday pricing the deal holding. Gold closed fading from its ATH like the safety bid was dying. The weekend news flipped the whole setup. Gold was the asset that had the right read. Equities and crude are going into the Globex open offside.

Weekly Structure

ES

ES is 235 points above the prior month’s POC and 200 above the prior week’s VAH. Everything in the right column is dead weight unless we reject back into the prior week’s range. The first real support is 7060 weekly POC. Wednesday and Thursday built value there before Friday’s breakout. That’s the nearest level anything defends.

NQ

NQ reclaimed March’s range on Tuesday and never retested. The 26480 weekly POC lines up with 26500 round-number energy. Below that, week VAL at 25736 is the first real shelf. Below 25736, prior week POC at 25030 is where the last durable acceptance lived.

CL

The weekly volume profile on crude didn’t produce a clean read this week. Here’s what the daily action gave us instead.

Top to bottom. 105.63 was Monday’s intraday high. Friday’s low was 78.97. The weekly VWAP at 87.51 sits $5 above Friday’s close. Structure rejected the 90-95 zone all week. Prior week low at $91 is the first upside reclaim level. $73 is the longer-term floor.

GC

New ATH Friday, $40 fade into the close. Weekly VWAP +1 stddev lands in the 4900 zone where Friday’s high printed. Above 4917, open air. Below $4785, monthly VWAP at 4770 is the first support. Below the VWAP, April’s POC at 4735 is where the bulk of the month’s value lives.

The White Van Stuff

Options positioning was wrong-footed all week. Upside ceilings on equities at 7100 and 26000 got run over Friday by 60 and 800 points, respectively.

ES options (all-exp): Upside ceiling 7100, broken. Standard floor 6500, multiple sessions below. Expected daily range 1.4%. Monday band 7060-7262. Last expected low level was 6996.

NQ options (all-exp): Upside ceiling 26000, broken. Standard floor 24000. Expected daily range 1.6%. Monday band 26400-27250. Magnet at 24740 is a 2000-point round-trip target if momentum fails.

GC options (all-exp): Upside ceiling $5000. Standard floor $4400. 1D Max Friday was $4952, essentially the week high. Expected move implies $60-80 daily.

Positioning (April 14 data): The trader crowd on S&P was betting lower going into a 306-point rally. They got their face ripped off. Nasdaq same story, bigger miss. The crude guys had been stacking longs right before the war premium fully unwound. Whoever held through the $14 flush is licking their wounds. Gold’s long side is still loaded and Friday’s ATH paid them back. Tuesday’s release shows who got flushed and who doubled down.

Vol: VIX is 18.36. With S&P +306 from that print, probably lower now. Everybody was positioned for a calm week and the overnight punished them.

Momentum and Context

VP migration this week was the biggest of the month. ES POC 6815 to 7060, a 245-point shift. NQ POC 25030 to 26480, a 1450-point shift. When value moves that far on one storyline in one week, the next week is either continuation or the sharpest reversal of the year. Nothing in between.

Yields fell in sympathy. 10Y 4.26%, 2Y 3.76% as of Tuesday. Both down 7-10 bps on the week. The curve liked the idea of cheaper oil.

Rally is broadening. Also means everybody’s long the same thing.

Swing Setups

1. CL long on reclaim of 90

Friday’s 78.97 is likely the monthly low if weekend news sticks. Monday base case is crude gapping back toward 90 (prior week low). Reclaim of 90 puts 93.40 (month POC) and 98 (prior week POC) as the upside cascade. Wrong if Pakistan talks actually produce something and ships start moving for real. Then CL breaks 78.97 and 73 is the longer-term target.

2. ES pullback to 7060 weekly POC

If Globex gaps ES down $40-60, 7060 is where the week’s value lives and is the first defense line. Two days of acceptance above 7060 keeps the breakout intact. Below 6940 (week VAL) and the rally is done. Mean-reversion buy into value.

3. GC breakout

Monday opens with escalation pricing, GC takes out 4917 and 5000 is the first round number above. Fades below $4785 and monthly VWAP at 4770 is first support. Or it chops 4800-4900 all week because talks produce fog.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Sunday 5pm CT Globex open. First market read on the weekend headlines.

2. CL 90-91. Prior week low. Above with force means premium is reflating. Below means the overnight didn’t stick.

3. ES 7060 and NQ 26480. Week POCs. First acceptance levels on any pullback.

4. NQ’s thirteen-session green streak. Mean-reversion risk. First down close is the tell that the momentum trade is done.

The Week’s Plan

ES: 7161 close, Friday high 7185.75. Hold above 7060 and 7185 is the first target with 7200 and 7250 as open air. Break 7060 and 6940 is the next shelf, below that 6815 (prior week POC) is where real support lives. Below 6815 the rally structure is unwound. Size small into Globex. Sunday range will be wide.

NQ: 26825 close, Friday high 26884.75. Hold 26480 and 26884 then 27000 are the upside cascade. Break 26480 and 25736 (week VAL) is first, below that 25030 (prior week POC) is where the last durable acceptance lived. Below 25030 and leader status is gone.

CL: 82.59 close. Above 90 with force and 93.40 (month POC) then 98 (prior week POC) are in play, with 105 as the Monday high reference. Break 78.97 and 73 (pre-war) is the longer-term floor. No structural level to defend until the first $5 of Globex move tells you the side.

GC: 4879 close, ATH 4917.70. Above 4917 and 5000 is the next round number. Below 4800 and the monthly VWAP at 4770 is the first shelf, below the VWAP April’s POC at 4735 and VAL at 4685 are where the month’s value lives.

Let’s have a good week. Be careful. Don’t let the mythical window of weakness get you.

We can't have anyone freak out out there, okay? We've got to keep our composure! We've come too far. There's too much to lose!

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.

Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick