The Week That Was

The S&P and the Nasdaq both printed records Tuesday, then spent the next two sessions handing them back with the 10-year sitting near the highest yield it has carried since 2002. Thursday did the damage. Iran stepped up its tanker attacks, a storm shut in Gulf production, crude ripped to 93.20 and the Nasdaq took the worst of the selling. Friday the long end backed off after Thursday’s solid 30-year auction, the dollar slipped, and everything got bought, gold hardest of all.

ES is 7861, on 7859.25, Friday’s POC, and under 7866.75, the ceiling the week put on its value. Tuesday ran 7897.50, just shy of the 7906.25 high August made, and two days of selling dragged it to 7783 Thursday, on 7782, last week’s ceiling. Friday bought every bit of Thursday back, and nothing has traded over 7874.25, October’s value ceiling, since Tuesday.

NQ is 31111.75, a little over 31080, Friday’s POC, and under 31250, the POC this week shares with October. Tuesday printed a record at 31616.50 and by Thursday it had sold to 30792, back into last week’s value under 30840. Friday’s whole session traded under the week’s POC, with 31282.50, last week’s record, parked just over it.

CL is 91.92, a few cents over 91.89, where this week’s value ends, after Tuesday opened on the week’s 87.13 low and Thursday ran it to 93.20. The week built its volume down at 89.50, so Friday closed on top of everything it built, standing on 91.50, a POC Friday and October share, with last week’s 91.44 just under it. That’s a week of headlines that ended with crude agreeing on a price.

GC is 4216.20, closing Friday a few dollars off its weekly high and over 4213.70, the VAH last week left. Wednesday flushed to 4091.20, just over 4079.20, the low August made, and its value came in lower than last week’s, 4104.20 to 4189.10. Friday opened over all of it and never traded back in, so the close says buyers and the profile still says sellers.

Cross-asset read: ES, crude and gold all closed at or over the upper edge of the value their week built, and NQ is the one that closed under its own week’s POC. Last week NQ was the only chart that closed over everything its week did. This week it’s the only one with its week’s volume sitting overhead.

Positioning (October 6 data): The S&P crowd added shorts again and sits net short better than 129,000 contracts, in a week ES finished green. The Nasdaq crowd bought back most of the longs it dumped the week before and covered shorts too, net long about 57,000 as of Tuesday, the day NQ printed its record. Two sessions later NQ was trading back inside last week’s value.

Vol: VIX went out at 14.84, its lowest close of the week and under last Friday’s 15.31. That’s protection priced for a quiet week, and the next five sessions have the banks, a monthly expiration and two mornings of 7:30 data in them.

The Calendar

The banks talk first, the 7:30 prints talk loudest, and TSMC Thursday morning is the only read on the chips.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Wednesday at 7:30. The last inflation number before the end-of-month rate decision, and it lands on a VIX that just went out at the low of its week. The banks report the morning before, so the quarter already has a first draft by 7:30 Wednesday.

2. ES 7866.75. The week and Friday capped their value two ticks apart, 7866.75 and 7867.25, with 7874.25, October’s ceiling, right behind them. No session has closed over that shelf since Tuesday’s run to 7897.50 got sold, so this is where Friday’s repair either keeps going or gets sold the same way.

3. NQ 31250. Two timeframes put their POC on it, this week and October, with last week’s 31282.50 record just over it. Over it, Tuesday’s 31616.50 is the only number left on the map, and under 30978.25, the week’s value floor, last week’s range is next.

4. Crude’s 91.50. Friday and October left their POC on the same price with last week’s 91.44 a few cents under, and crude closed the week standing on all three. Lose it and 89.50, where this week actually traded the most, is the next real volume.

5. Gold’s gap. The hole between last week’s 4259 high and the 4279.50 low before it still hasn’t been touched. Friday closed over last week’s VAH, and that gap is where the buyers find out if Friday was real.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES is 7861, standing on 7859.25, the price Friday traded most, and the trigger is the shelf right overhead, 7866.75, where the week capped its value with Friday’s 7867.25 ceiling two ticks over it. Twice this week the market went over that shelf and got sold, Tuesday from 7897.50 and Friday from 7870.50, so the sellers get the benefit of the doubt until something closes over it. Take it and 7874.25, October’s ceiling, is the gate, then 7886 where August topped its value. Over those it’s 7897.50, Tuesday’s high, and 7906.25, the high August made, and past that pair the chart is empty. What argues for the buyers is 7824, where this week and October both traded the most, sitting under price instead of over it. Lose 7841.75, Friday’s value floor with 7841.50, August’s POC, a tick under it, and 7824 catches first. Under it 7807, the week’s value floor, has 7808, September’s ceiling, stacked on it. Then 7783, Thursday’s low, sits on 7782, the line last week capped its value at. Give up that pair and 7775, last week’s POC, is the last real volume in front of 7743, the POC September built.

NQ:

NQ is 31111.75, a little over 31080, Friday’s POC, and that print is the line, with the real work overhead at 31250, the volume shelf for the week and the month, and last week’s 31282.50 record stacked over it. Friday’s whole session traded under that shelf, the only day this week that stayed entirely below it, and that’s the problem with the long side. Take 31250 back and 31282.50 is the first test, then 31400 and 31411.50, the two value ceilings, week and month. Over those 31616.50, Tuesday’s record, is the only thing on the map, and past it the chart is blank. What NQ does have is a floor that already got tested, because Friday’s 30991 low held right over 30978.25, the bottom of the week’s value. Lose 30978.25 and 30840, last week’s VAH, catches first, then 30792, Thursday’s low. Under those 30625, last week’s POC with September’s 30623.25 ceiling on it, is the gate, then 30521.25, last week’s VAL. Below that floor 30356.75, the low last week made, is all that stands in front of 30216.50, the gap that’s been open since September.

CL:

Crude is 91.92, over the 91.44 to 91.50 stack, last week’s POC under the one Friday and October share, and that stack is the trigger. Three timeframes landing inside one dime after a week that ran from 87.13 to 93.20 is crude telling you where it wants to be. What argues against it holding is 89.50, where the most contracts changed hands this week, which leaves everything over 91.89 as a market that only spent two sessions up here. Two sessions is a visit, and crude hasn’t paid any rent over that line yet. Hold 91.50 and 92.00, September’s POC, is the first work, with 92.30, October’s ceiling, the gate right over it. Clear those and 93.01, last week’s ceiling, and 93.20, Thursday’s high, are next, then 95.70, the high last week made. Lose 91.29, Friday’s value floor, and 90.66, Friday’s low, catches, then 90.20, last week’s floor. Under that 89.58, September’s floor, sits right over 89.50, the POC the week built. Below 88.69, the week’s value floor, it’s 87.13, the low Tuesday opened on, and then nothing until 83.42, the low September made.

GC:

Gold is 4216.20, over 4213.70, last week’s VAH, with Friday’s 4214 POC printed right on it, and that pair is the trigger. Friday opened over all five sessions’ worth of value and never traded back into it. The problem is the week itself, which built its value lower than last week’s, 4104.20 to 4189.10, so one good session is sitting on top of a profile the sellers still own. Hold it and 4221.70, the week’s high, is the first job, then the 4259 to 4279.50 gap, last week’s high to the low the week before it, that nobody has traded since September. Fill the gap and 4318, September’s value floor, is the next real volume, with 4380.70, where August’s value starts, behind it. Lose 4207.80, Friday’s value floor, and 4190, last week’s POC, catches with the week’s 4189.10 ceiling on the same shelf. Under that shelf 4165, October’s POC, sits over 4161, last week’s VAL, and 4143.10, the low September and last week share, is the gate. Give up 4143.10 and 4140, this week’s POC, is the last volume before 4104.20, its floor. Under that it’s 4091.20, Wednesday’s low, and 4079.20, the low August made, with nothing under it.

The White Van Stuff

The weight in the books moved this week. The semiconductor book dropped from the 99th percentile of its own year to the 36th and the Nasdaq-100 ETF from the 93rd to the 67th, while the S&P book went from the 69th to the 94th and the Dow’s from the 25th to the 76th. Into Friday’s monthly expiration the S&P book still carries about two puts for every call and the tech book closer to four for every three, while crude’s runs more calls than puts and gold’s runs close to three calls for every put.

ES: The cap on this book came down to 7925 from 8000, and the biggest number in it is 7900, right under the cap with 7890 and 7875 stacked below it. The pivot moved up to 7835 from 7745, so price closed over it, with 7850 the nearest line underneath and the put floor still 7700. Price is 7861, over the 7850 and under the 7875.

NQ: The cap jumped to 31500 from 31000, and last week’s cap is now the heaviest line in the whole book, 31000, sitting under price with the 30980 pivot right beside it. Overhead it’s 31250 and 31400 before the cap, then a ladder from 31600 out through 31800. Price is 31111.75, over the 31100 and under the 31250.

CL: Crude’s cap came down to 95 from 100 and the pivot dropped to 89.75 from 91.50, so the whole cage stepped down under a price that closed the week higher. Most of the interest sits at 90, with 90.50 over it and the 89 through 87 ladder underneath, and overhead it’s 92, 92.50 and 93 before the cap. Price is 91.92, under the 92 and over the 90.50.

GC: Gold’s pivot fell to 4195 from 4295, so price closed over it, and the weight is at 4225, a few dollars over Friday’s close with 4220 and 4230 packed around it. Overhead it’s 4250 through 4325 and then nothing until the 4510 cap, with 4150 and 4120 under the pivot and the put floor still 4050. Price is 4216.20, over the 4215 and under the 4220.

Be the ball, Danny.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Week That Was

The October rate hike the market was pricing a week ago is off the table, and it took two soft numbers to get it there. Wednesday’s inflation read came in lighter than expected and Friday’s jobs report finished the job, with unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. The Nasdaq went out green on the week with Nvidia printing a record, while the S&P and the Dow both went out red. The 10-year closed every session over 5.2 and the dollar finished the week stronger, and gold ate both, falling out of last week’s range Monday and never trading back into it. Crude ran to 96.54 Sunday night with the Strait of Hormuz still shut, sold to 88.58 by Wednesday, ripped Thursday when China’s refiners halted fuel exports for October and more US forces headed for the Middle East, then gave it back Friday on an emergency reserve release. OPEC+ met this morning and left November output where it was.

ES is 7779 and went out red on the week after opening Monday under last week’s 7804.50 close, sitting on 7775 where the week, Friday and October all put their POC. Thursday it got sold to 7672.75, under the floor of September’s entire value, and Friday took every bit of it back to 7810.25 before stalling right on top of 7808, the ceiling September’s value built. Sit out the whole week and you missed four sessions of selling and one of repair, and still finished about where Monday opened.

NQ is 31070 after printing 31282.50 Friday, the highest price it has ever traded, and it closed over everything its week built. The catch is the week did its business down at 30625, under last week’s 30740 POC, so value slid lower while price went higher and only Friday’s session lives up here. Monday’s 30356.75 low still left the 30216.50 gap from two weeks ago sitting there unfilled.

CL is 91.10, under 91.44 where the week and Friday both left their POC. It went 96.54 Sunday night to 88.06 Friday and built its value from 90.20 to 93.01, right inside the 90.21 to 93.80 box last week built. For all the noise, the week never built value anywhere last week hadn’t already built it.

GC is 4162.60, sitting on 4161, the floor of the value this week built, after Friday ran 4259 and sold the whole run back into the close. Monday flushed it through 4279.50, where last week bottomed, before the pit opened and on down to 4143.10 after it did, and the rest of the week never made it back up there. That’s three straight weeks of lower value, and this one built entirely under the last one.

Cross-asset read: NQ is the only one of the four that left the room. ES and crude both spent the week rebuilding last week’s value on top of itself, and gold built its whole week under last week’s low and couldn’t get back. One index printing records while ES closes red is a rally riding on the chip names.

Positioning (September 29 data): The S&P crowd added close to 11,000 shorts and trimmed longs again, taking the net short from 112,000 to better than 127,000 going into a week the index finished red. The Nasdaq crowd dumped about 9,500 longs and sits net long around 46,000, three sessions before NQ printed its record. The short crowd finally got paid and the Nasdaq longs sold too early.

Vol: VIX went out at 15.31, up from last Friday’s 14.87 after a 16.39 close Thursday. Protection got a little more expensive and is still cheap for a tape with the 10-year over 5.2.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. The long end. The 10-year closed every session last week over 5.2, and this week it has to clear a 3-year auction Tuesday, a 10-year Wednesday and a 30-year Thursday. A sloppy takedown at any of the three puts the rate argument Friday’s jobs number just settled right back on the table.

2. ES 7775. Three POCs on one print and last week’s 7771.50 a few ticks under it. Over it ES is a market waiting on somebody to pay 7808. Under 7743, September’s POC, it’s back in the chop that ate the whole month.

3. NQ 31060. Friday’s POC, printed right on 31065.50, last week’s record. Over it NQ is somewhere nobody has traded before. Give back 30950 and everybody who bought the record is holding the bag inside last week’s value.

4. Crude’s box. Two weeks, two value areas, 90.20 to 93.01 and 90.21 to 93.80, one stacked on the other. A close outside either edge is the first thing crude has done in two weeks that counts, and 88.06 and 95.70 are where the edges get real.

5. Gold’s gap. 4259 to 4279.50, Friday’s high to last week’s low, untouched all week. Until gold trades back into that hole, every bounce is happening underneath a market that already left.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES is 7779, standing on the 7775 shelf where this week, Friday and October all did their business, with last week’s 7771.50 POC a few ticks under it, and that stack is the trigger. Two straight weeks trading on the same shelf is a market that likes its price and is waiting on a reason to leave. The reason isn’t coming from the buyers yet, because Friday ran to 7810.25 and quit just over 7808, the ceiling September’s value built, then closed back down on the shelf. Hold 7775 and the first work is 7790.50, where Friday topped its value, then the 7808 and 7810.25 pair that turned Friday around. Clear that pair and 7824, last week’s value ceiling, opens 7841.50, the POC August built, with 7848.50, the high last week and September share, sitting right behind it. Lose 7771.50 and 7765, Friday’s value floor, catches first, then 7743, the POC September built. Under 7743 it’s 7723, where the week’s value began, and then the 7672.75 low Thursday printed under September’s entire value area. Below that low the map is empty to 7610.50, the low August made.

NQ:

NQ is 31070, a few points over 31060, Friday’s POC, and that print sitting right on 31065.50, last week’s record high, is the line. The old high turning into the price Friday did its business at is what a real breakout looks like, at least for one session. The problem is everything underneath, because the week built its volume at 30625, below last week’s 30740, and a record with no volume under it has nothing to land on if it fails. Hold 31060 and 31163, the top of Friday’s value, is the only thing between price and 31282.50, the record it printed Friday. Past 31282.50 the chart is blank, and any number I give you up there is made up. Lose 31004.50, the floor of Friday’s value, and 30950, where last week capped its value, catches first, then 30840, this week’s value ceiling. Under those the gate is 30625, where this week and October both left their POC with September’s value ceiling printed alongside them. Give up the gate and 30356.75, Monday’s low, is all that stands in front of 30216.50, the gap from two weeks ago that still hasn’t filled.

CL:

Crude is 91.10, under 91.44, the week’s POC with Friday’s sharing the number, and the whole plan hangs on that print, with 92.00, where last week and September both put their POC, sitting right over it. One headline after another dragged it from 95.70 down to 88.06 and the week still built its value inside last week’s box, two value floors sitting on 90.20 and 90.21. What argues for the downside is Friday, which printed the week’s low and closed under the POC, so the sellers had the last word going into the weekend. Take 91.44 back and 92.00 is the gate, then 93.01, the week’s ceiling, with 93.24, October’s, right over it. Through those, 93.80, last week’s ceiling, opens 95.70, the high this week made, and 96.78, last week’s. Lose 90.20, where both weeks’ value bottomed, and 89.58, September’s floor, catches, then 89.19, Friday’s. Under 88.06, the low Friday printed, there’s no volume on the map until 83.42, the low September made, with August’s 83.40 high sitting on it.

GC:

Gold is 4162.60, a hair over 4161, the floor of the week’s value, with Friday’s 4165 POC printed over it, and that pair decides the week. Friday’s run to 4259 got sold all the way back into the close. A week spent entirely under last week’s low, with its one real rally sold before it could touch it, is a chart the sellers are still running. What it has going for it is 4143.10, the low Monday’s flush printed, because Tuesday and Friday both went back toward it and neither got through. Hold 4161 and 4190, the week’s POC, with October’s 4200 right over it, is the first work, then 4213.70, the week’s value ceiling. Clear those and 4259, the week high, is the gate, with 4279.50 the top of the gap this whole week never touched. Over the gap it reads 4318, September’s floor, and 4320, last week’s POC, the shelf gold traded on before Monday. Lose 4153.80, Friday’s low, and 4143.10 is the gate, the low September and this week share, and under it the map is empty to 4079.20, the low August made.

The White Van Stuff

The weight in the books is parked where it has been the last three weeks, the semiconductor book at the 99th percentile of its own year, the Nasdaq-100 ETF at the 93rd and Meta and Microsoft in the 90s, while the banks sit at the 9th and small caps and gold at the 14th and 13th. Into Friday’s expiration the S&P book carries close to two puts for every call and the tech book about one and a half, while crude’s nearest books went from close to four puts per call a week ago to more calls than puts. Gold’s book runs dead even, and its whole cage stepped down with price, the cap from 4725 to 4510 and the put floor from 4250 to 4050.

ES: The cap on this book jumped to 8000 from 7830, and the heaviest line is still 7750 with the 7745 pivot printed right under it. Price closed 7779, a few points over the 7775 and under the 7825, inside a week band that runs 7638.75 to 7919.25.

NQ: NQ closed over its own 31000 cap, and the heaviest line in the whole book is 31250 right over price, with a ladder from 31300 out through 31750 stacked behind it. The pivot moved up to 30690 from 30090, and under the cap there’s nothing with weight until 30800. Price is 31070, over the cap and under the 31100.

CL: Crude closed under its own 91.50 pivot, with 90.50, the biggest number in the book, sitting right under price and 88.50 and 88 behind it. Overhead it’s 92.50 through 93.50, then 96 and the 100 cap, inside a week band of 84.87 to 97.33. Price is 91.10, between the 90.50 and the pivot.

GC: Gold’s heaviest line is 4150, just under Friday’s close, with 4125 and 4120 behind it and the put floor at 4050. Overhead there’s nothing until 4225, and the pivot is way up at 4295, over the top of the 4036.40 to 4288.80 week band. Price is 4162.60, over the 4160 and the 4150.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

The 10-year touched 5.23 Friday and settled 5.18, and the 30-year went out over five and a half. The S&P still put up its first winning week in three with the Nasdaq leading, and the Dow finally snapped a three week losing streak. The AI names did the lifting again, Microsoft ripped Friday on a software announcement, and Xi came and went from Washington with chip export controls left off the table entirely. Crude sold to 89.47 Tuesday when Saudi Arabia got its East-West pipeline pumping again, then ran to 96.78 Thursday on a rumor the White House wants a ninety day diesel export ban. It gave all of it back Friday when word got out that US and Iranian negotiators are working on a phased deal to reopen Hormuz and lift the port blockade. Gold sold four straight sessions with the dollar at a two month high and the odds of another hike in October moving from a coin flip to seventy percent. Wednesday morning’s inflation number and Friday’s payrolls are the two prints that set that number before the next meeting.

ES is 7804.50, sitting on Friday’s 7803.50 POC, in the upper half of the week’s value and above the 7787.25 ceiling September’s value built. The week gapped over everything last week did and ran 7848.50 Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday it fell back to the 7708.75 to 7715 shelf where last week and September both left their POC, and Thursday’s overnight went to 7707.25, kissed it and turned. Buyers took the whole thing back in one Friday session. A week that gaps up, gets sold for two days and closes near the top is a week where the dip buyers are still running it. The number they bought is the number I’ve got the whole month hanging on.

NQ is 30891.50, over every price August built and over September’s 30467.25 value ceiling, sitting on Friday’s 30912 POC under the 30950 ceiling the week put on itself. It gapped from 29916.25 to 30222 on Monday’s open and never went back, then printed 31065.50 Wednesday for fresh highs. The two session hit that followed bottomed at 30370 in Thursday’s overnight and got bought right back into Friday’s close. The Monday gap at 30216.50 is still open. Every dip this week held above it, which makes this either the strongest chart on the board or the most crowded one, and I think the positioning data below says both.

CL is 92.24, sitting on 92.00, where the week’s POC and September’s POC print on the same price with Friday’s 92.20 POC stacked over them. It opened the week 93.70, sold to 89.47 Tuesday, ran 96.78 Thursday and finished right back where it started. All of that happened under the entire range last week traded. Three timeframes leaving their volume on one number after a week like that means the auction agreed on 92 and disagreed on everything else.

GC is 4321.30, on the week’s 4320 POC and under September’s 4341.90 value floor, after selling four straight sessions from 4405.60. Thursday printed 4279.50, a new low for the month under last week’s 4293, and Friday bought it back to the POC and stopped. Third down week in four, and it gave back the whole reclaim it made last Friday in one Monday session.

Cross-asset read: The indexes closed above the volume their week built and the commodities closed sitting exactly on theirs. ES and NQ went to their shelves Thursday and bought them, crude and gold went to new lows for the month and only got back to their POCs. Same rates, same dollar, opposite results, and I don’t have a clean story for why.

Positioning (September 22 data): The S&P crowd went from net short 83,000 to net short better than 112,000 in a week the index gapped up and held. They dumped close to 25,000 longs and added shorts besides. The Nasdaq crowd did the opposite again, adding longs and covering close to 13,000 shorts to sit net long better than 52,000. One crowd leaning against the tape and the other leaning with it, on two indexes that closed the week in the same place.

Vol: VIX went out at 14.87, the same number it printed the Friday before, with the 10-year at a nineteen year high and payrolls five sessions out. Nothing in that number says anybody’s worried about Friday.

The Calendar

Eleven speaking slots in five days and two prints that matter. Everything between them is noise with a time stamp.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Friday at 7:30. The September jobs number lands with October hike odds sitting at seventy percent, and every read below this line is conditional until it prints. Wednesday’s 7:30 inflation number gets to set the mood two days early.

2. ES 7711.50. September’s POC, with last week’s 7708.75 POC and its 7715 ceiling stacked on it, and Thursday’s 7707.25 overnight low printed right underneath the pile. Everything above that shelf is a market that bought the dip. Under it, Wednesday and Thursday were the start of something.

3. NQ’s Monday gap. 30216.50 is the week low, August’s 30221.75 value ceiling sits on it, and nothing has traded there since Monday’s open. As long as that gap stays open the breakout week stands. Fill it and NQ is back inside August with a lot of people offside.

4. Crude on 92. The week, the month and Friday all left their POC on the same number. Whichever edge of Friday’s range goes first, 93.29 or 91.54, gets the next leg, and 96.83 is where last week’s value begins while 90.21 is where September’s ends.

5. Wednesday’s quarter turn. Month-end and quarter-end land on the same session as the inflation number, with the memory chip report after that close. Thursday prints new monthly opens on all four charts and everything I call September in this brief becomes last month overnight.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES is 7804.50, standing on Friday’s 7803.50 POC with 7771.50, the week’s POC, and August’s 7763.25 value floor stacked underneath, and that stack is the trigger. What the week proved is that the 7708.75 to 7715 shelf, where September and last week both left their POC, has real buyers on it, because Thursday’s overnight went to 7707.25 and turned around inside one session. What it hasn’t proved is that it can hold above 7824, the ceiling its own value built, since Tuesday’s 7848.50 got sold for two straight days. Hold 7771.50 and the first work is 7814.75, Friday’s high, with the week’s 7824 ceiling right over it. Through 7824 the target is 7841.50, August’s POC, where the summer put its actual volume, and 7848.50, the double top the week and the month share. Past that pair there’s nothing on the map until 7886, where August topped its value, and 7906.25 its high. Lose 7771.50 and the first catch is 7752.75, Friday’s low sitting on the week’s 7749.25 floor. Under that it’s 7725.25 the week low and then the 7711.50 shelf, the gate for the whole read. Give up 7708.75 and the next real volume is 7668.25, last week’s value floor, and 7661, September’s.

NQ:

NQ is 30891.50 and the line is 30740, the week’s POC, because the whole breakout lives above it and price hasn’t closed under it since Monday’s gap. Above price the map is short: 30912 Friday’s POC, 30950 where the week and Friday both capped their value, and 31065.50, the high the week and the month share. Clear 31065.50 and there’s nothing, it’s price discovery, and I’ll be watching the overnight singles it leaves behind rather than guessing a number. The argument against chasing it is where the week actually did its business, because 30740 sits well under the close and Thursday’s overnight already went to 30370 once. Lose 30740 and 30684, Friday’s low on the week’s 30658.25 floor, catches first. Then 30586.75, the high August made, is the gate, because under it this week’s breakout is back inside the old month. Below the gate it’s 30467.25, September’s value ceiling, and then the 30216.50 week low with August’s 30221.75 ceiling printed on it, the Monday gap that never filled. Fill the gap and the map is empty until the 29903 shelf, where last week’s ceiling and August’s POC print together, and 29739.25, September’s POC.

CL:

Crude is 92.24 sitting on 92.00, and that number is the whole plan, because the week’s POC, September’s POC and Friday’s 92.20 POC all landed on it. It went 93.70 to 89.47 to 96.78 and back in four sessions, so the profile is a fat middle with two failed excursions, and nobody who bought the Thursday rip or sold the Tuesday flush is happy tonight. That’s a rotation week, and 92 is where the market agrees until one edge of Friday’s range goes. Take 93.29, Friday’s ceiling, and 93.80 the week’s is right behind it, then 94.23 Friday’s high. Through 94.23 the work is 95.53, last week’s low, then 96.83 where last week’s value began with the 96.78 week high sitting on it. That pair is the gate back into a market that traded 100 two weeks ago. Past the gate it reads 97.44, last week’s POC, then 99.95 its ceiling and 100.58 where September’s value tops. Lose 91.54, Friday’s low and value floor on one print, and 90.21 catches, the floor the week and September share. Under 90.21 it’s 89.47 the week low and then nothing, the profile is empty down to 83.42, September’s low, with August’s 83.40 high sitting right on it.

GC:

Gold is 4321.30 on the week’s 4320 POC, under September’s 4341.90 value floor, and 4320 is the trigger because it’s the only price this week where buyers and sellers agreed on anything. It sold from 4405.60 Monday morning to 4279.50 Thursday, a new low for the month under last week’s 4293, and Friday’s bounce got it back to the POC and stopped. Four straight sessions of business under the month’s value with the dollar at a two month high is a chart that has to prove something before I’m interested from the long side. Hold 4320 and the first job is 4341.90, September’s value floor, with Friday’s 4345.30 high printed over it. That’s the reclaim that puts gold back inside its month. Over it the work is 4367.60 the week’s ceiling and 4380.70 where August’s value began, then 4397.90 last week’s ceiling. Through those the 4408 September POC with the 4407.80 week high printed on it is the gate. Above the gate 4427.60 last week’s high and 4442.70 August’s POC are the only volume left overhead. Lose 4320 and 4306.50, Friday’s value floor, catches, then 4293, where last week’s low and value floor print together with Friday’s 4289.20 low under them. Give up 4279.50 and there’s nothing, no volume on this contract until 4079.20, the low August made.

The White Van Stuff

The weight in the index books is parked in the same corner it was last week, with the semiconductor book at the 98th percentile of its own year, the Nasdaq-100 ETF at the 91st and Microsoft and Meta in the 90s, while small caps sit at the 9th, the banks at the 16th and the long bond at the 16th. The S&P book swung from the 94th percentile Monday to the 58th Wednesday and back to the 81st Friday, which is a book chasing the tape instead of leaning on it. Into Friday’s expiration both index books carry better than two puts for every call, crude’s nearest book carries closer to four, and gold’s is the only one running even.

ES: The cap on this book is 7830, sitting right over the 7824 ceiling the week’s value built, so the options crowd and the profile drew the same line. Underneath, the heaviest interest in the book is 7750 with the 7755 pivot stacked on it, and the 7700 put floor lands on the same shelf the profile calls the gate. Price closed on the 7800 line, between the two, with the week band running 7664.75 to 7944.25.

NQ: The tech book has 31000 as its cap with 31100 and 31250 stacked right behind it, all of it inside the week band, and nothing under price with real weight until 30800 and 30750. The pivot in this book is all the way down at 30090 with 29000 the first floor under it, which tells you the options crowd built this cage before the Monday gap and hasn’t caught up. Price is 30891.50, over the 30800 and under the cap.

CL: Crude’s book has 95 as its heaviest line and it sits right over price, with the 100 cap the only thing above it that matters. Under price the 91.50 pivot is the first line, then 90.50, then a hole to the 87 and 86 cluster with 80 the last thing the book owns. Price is 92.24, under 92.50 and sitting on the pivot, with the nearest expiration carrying close to four puts for every call.

GC: Gold’s book is the only one on the board with its heaviest interest under price: 4275 and 4300 are the two biggest lines and both sit below Friday’s close, with the 4250 put floor right under them. Overhead the pivot is 4330 and then a ladder from 4350 through 4400 into a 4725 cap that hasn’t mattered since August. Price is 4321.30, under the pivot and over the 4300.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Week That Was

The Fed raised its target range Wednesday to 3.75 to 4.00, the first increase since 2023, and 16 of 18 policymakers put at least one more on the board before December. Everything sold into it. ES printed 7575 Wednesday, NQ printed 29053, gold printed 4293. Then Thursday and Friday the whole board turned around at once as the long end backed away from 5 percent and crude fell apart, which took the inflation argument off the table for a couple of days. The Nasdaq was the only major index green on the week while the Dow lost better than a percent and a half. Friday was September expiration on top of the whole thing.

ES is 7712.50 with the week’s POC at 7708.75 and September’s at 7711.50 printed underneath it, three timeframes leaving their volume on one shelf. It traded 7575 Wednesday and went out Friday at the top of the week, so the hole filled in two sessions. What it has not done is take 7715, the ceiling its week built, and that number sits directly on top of the close.

NQ is 29916.25 and it closed above every piece of value its week made, over the 29903.75 ceiling with August’s 29903.25 POC printed on the same shelf. Wednesday it took 29053, where the week low and September’s landed together, and bought it. Started the week in the hole, finished it at the week high, the only one of the four that can say that.

CL is 96.19 and it is the one chart that finished below the value it built, with 96.83 the floor it lost and 97.44 the POC the week and September both landed on. It opened at 100.15, ran 102.69, and handed the whole move back the moment the Saudi repair headlines started landing. September’s value area on this thing runs from 88.23 all the way up to 102.68, which is not a market that has agreed on anything yet. It goes into tonight standing on the shelf Friday built, 96.24 the session POC with last week’s 95.99 right under it.

GC is 4425.30, back over the 4408 and 4405 pair where September and last week both left their POC, after spending Monday through Wednesday underneath the pair. The week put its volume way down at 4335 and printed 4293, September’s low to the tick, before Thursday and Friday took the whole range back. That ends two straight lower weeks on a session that closed at the high.

Cross-asset read: Three of the four closed on or above the volume their own week built and crude is the one sitting underneath it. NQ and GC both went to their September lows midweek and finished at their week highs, which is the same trade twice on two charts that usually argue with each other. Crude went the other direction and gave back the premium both of them were reacting to.

Positioning (September 15 data): The S&P crowd walked into the meeting net short better than 83,000 contracts, trimming both sides but cutting longs harder, leaning against this tape for another week. The Nasdaq crowd did the opposite and covered close to 14,000 shorts to sit net long into it. Every one of those numbers is Tuesday’s, which means none of it has the decision in it yet.

Vol: VIX closed 14.81, lower on the week. Rates went up for the first time since 2023 and protection got cheaper, which tells you exactly how seriously the option market is taking the second one.

The Calendar

Nine speakers in five days and no inflation print to argue with them. The information this week comes out of the auctions and out of Thursday.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. The coupon slate. Two-year Tuesday, five-year Wednesday, seven-year Thursday, the first real test of demand since the target range moved. The 10-year is 4.94 and a bad takedown puts 5 percent back on the screen, which reprices every chart in this brief off one number.

2. ES 7708.75 into 7715. The week’s POC with September’s 7711.50 and Friday’s 7712.50 stacked on it and 7715, the ceiling the week put on its value, right over the top of all three. Price closed inside that shelf. Everything above it is repair and everything under it is Wednesday again.

3. NQ 29903. Where the week topped its value with August’s POC printed alongside it, and Friday closed above the pair. It is the one chart that already has permission, which also means it is the one with the most to lose Monday morning.

4. Crude’s 97.44. September and the week left their POC on that same price and Friday finished under it. Take it back and the flush was a shakeout inside the range. Fail it and 95.53 is the only thing standing between price and the 91.64 shelf.

5. Thursday in Washington. The whole conversation is chips and export licensing, and the semiconductor book is sitting at the 95th percentile of its own year while small caps sit at the 9th and the banks at the 20th. One headline gets to move the exact index everybody is already crowded into.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES closed at 7712.50 standing on 7708.75, the week’s POC, with September’s 7711.50 and Friday’s own 7712.50 printed on top of it. Three timeframes putting their volume on one shelf is not a coincidence, that is where the market had its conversation about a rate hike and decided the answer was nothing. What it has not done is take 7715, the top of the week’s own value, with 7717.75 Friday’s ceiling and 7719.75 the week high right behind it. Clear that stack and 7742.50, where last week capped its value, is the first real work. Behind it is 7758.25 September’s ceiling with August’s 7763.25 floor printed on it, the pair that decides whether this month is a pullback or a lower high. Above those it reads 7785.50 last week’s high and 7834.25 September’s, with 7841.50 August’s POC where the summer put its actual volume. Lose 7708.75 and 7689.75 where Friday bottomed its value catches, then the 7668.25 and 7666.25 pair where its week floor landed on last week’s POC, and 7661 September’s value floor is the gate beneath the stack. Below 7653.50, where last week’s value floor and last week’s low print together, the chart goes quiet until 7610.50 August’s low and 7575 the week’s.

NQ:

NQ is the only one of the four that closed above everything its week built, going out 29916.25 over the 29903.75 ceiling with August’s 29903.25 POC sitting on the same shelf. What makes that shelf worth anything is Wednesday, when it printed 29053, where the week low and September’s landed together, and bought it. Above price the work is 29922.50 where last week’s value topped, then 29938.25 September’s with the 29937.75 week high riding it, and 29991 September’s high behind the pair. Take those and the map turns into August’s, 30221.75 the value ceiling and 30586.75 the high, with nothing structural in between. The argument against it is where the week actually did its business. September left its POC at 29739.25, last week left its at 29742.25, and the week and Friday both printed 29730. Four timeframes saying the real volume sits a long way under Friday’s close. Lose 29903 and that four POC shelf is the destination, then 29693.75 the floor Friday drew, 29555 August’s, and 29462.25 September’s. Under 29346.25, the floor the week drew, it is 29053 or nothing.

CL:

Crude closed 96.19, under 96.83, the bottom of the week’s value, and under the 97.44 POC the week and September both printed, and that pair is the whole plan. It opened 100.15, ran 102.69, and gave every bit of it back once the pipeline repair started showing up in headlines, so everything overhead is work crude has to earn a second time. The honest problem with any of it is that September’s value runs 88.23 to 102.68 on this contract, so being inside value here tells you almost nothing about what happens next. Reclaim 96.83 and 97.44 and 98.79 Friday’s ceiling comes next, then 98.99 last week’s and 99.42 Friday’s high, with 99.95 the ceiling the week built capping the whole repair. Past 99.95 there is nothing until 102.68, where September topped its value on the 102.69 high. Underneath, price is sitting on a shelf it built itself Friday. That is 96.24 the session POC with last week’s 95.99 and Friday’s 95.97 value floor stacked right under it, and 95.53 the week low is the gate beneath the pile. Lose 95.53 and the profile is empty down to 91.64 where last week’s value bottomed, then 88.23 September’s floor and 87.76 the low last week made.

GC:

Gold went out 4425.30, back over the 4408 and 4405 pair where September and last week both left their POC, and that pair is the line this whole read hangs on. It spent Monday through Wednesday below both and printed 4293, September’s low to the tick, before Thursday and Friday took the entire week back. Hold 4408 and the next job is 4427.60, the high Friday and the week share, then 4442.70 August’s POC, the shelf that decides whether two lower weeks were the pullback or the start of something. Over that it reads 4447.70 last week’s ceiling, 4468.30 September’s, 4479 last week’s high, and 4558.50 the high September made. What I do not have is a single session of real business up here, because the week printed its volume down at 4335 and price closed nowhere near it. Lose 4408 and 4397.90 the ceiling the week drew catches, then 4392.50 Friday’s POC. Under those is the 4385.90 and 4385.80 pair where Friday’s value bottom and last week’s landed on one number, with 4380.70 August’s floor and 4376.50 September’s beneath it.

The White Van Stuff

The September book cleared out Friday and what rebuilt underneath it leans the wrong way for anybody hoping the quiet holds. The S&P’s Friday expiration carries better than two puts for every call and the tech book runs closer to two and a half, both of them shaped to push a move along instead of soak it up. Underneath that the weight is stacked in one place: the semiconductor book sits at the 95th percentile of its own year with the megacap names right behind it, while small caps sit at the 9th and the banks at the 20th.

ES: The magnet and the put floor are the same number on ES, 7700, and price closed just over the pair. Everything the book owns above is the 7750 through 7800 ladder into the 7900 cap, and under 7700 there is 7675 and then a walk down to 7625. The week band runs 7591.25 to 7833.75.

NQ: NQ closed on the single highest line its book has underneath it, 29900, with everything else it owns stacked overhead from 30000 up through 30500 and the cap out at 31000. Below that one line the next thing carrying weight is the 29490 magnet. The band runs 29249.50 to 30583.

CL: Crude’s book is upside down against the tape, with the 100 cap the only real line overhead and the entire ladder from 93.50 down through 90 sitting under price. It closed on the 96 line, the second heaviest number in the book, and the magnet is down at 92.25.

GC: Gold’s heaviest line is 4450 and it sits right above Friday’s close, with 4435 printed under it and the two of them wrapping the settle. Under price the book steps 4415, the 4390 magnet, then 4375 and 4365. The 4725 cap has not been relevant since August.

I will not get bear amnesia this week. I will not get bear amnesia this week.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

Four straight down sessions had the S&P lower by about eight tenths on the week. Friday put most of a percent back on the board in one day and snapped the streak. Underneath all of it was crude, which opened the week at 92.26 and printed 104.46 while the Strait of Hormuz stayed shut, then dumped Friday when Iran and Oman started talking about an interim shipping corridor. Gold went the other way for a second straight week and closed under its own value again. The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday with the decision at 1:00 Wednesday, and no first-tier data and no big tech print shows up all week to compete with it.

ES is 7660.75, sitting on 7660.50 where Friday’s value bottomed, with the week’s 7675.75 ceiling right overhead and 7679, September’s POC on last week’s, above that. The week opened 7715.50, walked down to 7585.50 by Thursday and left its POC at 7598.50 near the low, then Friday built its entire value up at 7660.50 to 7679.50. The week put its volume at the bottom and Friday put its volume at the ceiling, and those two have not been introduced yet.

NQ is 29391.75, between the 29350 floor of its week’s value and the 29450 print the week actually built on, which is about as undecided as a chart gets going into a Fed. Friday morning it took the week low at 29040.50, which is the exact price September’s value area begins at, and then closed near the top of its own range. The month’s floor got tested to the tick and bought, and that is the one thing on this chart I am carrying into Monday.

CL is 99.99, a penny under the hundred, where the week left its POC at 100.05, Thursday left its POC at 100.05, and the cap in the options book sits at 100. The week opened at 92.26, ran 104.46 Friday morning, and sold to 98.48 the moment anybody mentioned talks. The whole week traded above everything September built, so crude is the only chart on my board in real price discovery.

GC is 4390, under the 4405.10 floor of its own week and holding September’s 4388 with nothing to spare. Two straight lower weeks now, two straight closes under the value it built, and Friday’s 4333 print ran through the month’s value floor before the buyers took it back. The week’s POC is 4442, September’s is 4443, August’s is 4450, three timeframes stacking volume on one shelf that gold cannot get near.

Cross-asset read: Three of the four closed under the value their own week built. Crude closed on its. ES and GC are both under a value floor with a POC shelf overhead, and NQ is the only one that went to its month’s floor and got it back. Three charts asking permission and one that already has it.

Positioning (September 8 data): The S&P crowd went into the week net short better than eighty thousand contracts and spent it adding, close to three new shorts for every new long. The Nasdaq crowd is still net long and doing the same thing underneath, trimming longs and stacking shorts. The crude crowd carries roughly thirty-five thousand net longs into a market that already made the move, so nobody over there is early anymore.

Vol: VIX is 15.90 going into a rate decision and a September expiration in the same week. That is protection priced like the calendar is empty.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Wednesday at 1:00. One release can move all four charts and everything written above it stays conditional until it prints. The 7:30 retail number that same morning gets to set the mood first.

2. ES 7675.75 into 7679. The week’s value ceiling with September’s POC and last week’s POC sharing the number three points above it. Friday built its entire session underneath that shelf. Clearing it and holding is the difference between a repair and a lower high.

3. NQ 29040. September’s value floor, tested to the tick Friday morning and bought. It is the cleanest line on the board because nobody has to argue about where it is, and the obvious levels work precisely because everybody sees them.

4. Crude’s hundred. The week’s POC printed 100.05, Thursday’s printed 100.05, and the cap in the options book is 100. Three different things landing on one price is not a coincidence, that is where the market had its conversation.

5. Friday’s expiration. The S&P book carries better than two puts for every call into it while gold’s carries three and a half calls for every put. Two markets leaning opposite directions into the same bell, which is usually where I find a way to be wrong on both.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

The shelf is 7675.75 into 7679, the week’s value ceiling with September and last week both leaving their POC on 7679 right above it, and ES trades 7660.75 underneath. Take that pair and hold it and the map runs 7721.25 September’s ceiling, 7726.50 last week’s, then 7728.50 the week’s high, with 7766.50 the September high and last week’s high sharing a number over them. What I do not have is evidence the buyers can do it, because the week built its whole POC at 7598.50 down near the low. Lose 7644, last week’s value floor, and 7633 is September’s right under it, and that is the number this month’s read hangs on. Below it the 7585.75 value floor sits on the 7585.50 week low, and under that shelf there is nothing until 7499, the low August left.

NQ:

NQ trades 29391.75 and the line is 29450, the print the week actually built its volume on, with September’s 29513 ceiling behind it. Clear those and 29520 last week’s POC comes first, then the 29598.80 to 29600 shelf where last week’s value topped and August left its volume. That is one price doing two jobs and it caps everything until somebody closes over it. Reclaiming 29450 is the easy half, because what NQ really did this week was go to 29040, September’s value floor, and buy it to the tick, so the bears have to take that low out before anything underneath counts. Lose 29350 and the week’s own floor is gone, then 29254.80 August’s catches, then 29155.50 last week’s on 29150 September’s POC, and under 29040 the profile goes quiet to 28927.20.

CL:

Crude trades 99.99 and the whole decision is the hundred, because the week’s POC and Thursday’s POC both printed 100.05 and the options cap is 100. Hold that shelf and there is nothing overhead but 101.83 Thursday’s value ceiling and 103.07 its high, then 104.46 where the week’s value ceiling and the week’s high printed together. Fail it and the vacuum is real, because the next volume shelf is all the way down at 94.50 and the profile built nothing in between. Under 94.50 the 93.09 prior week ceiling catches, then the 90.87 week low on 90.75 where September and last week both left their POC. Below that pair 88.28 is last week’s value floor, 87.84 is September’s, and 87.69 is the August high this entire move launched from.

GC:

Gold trades 4390, under the 4405.10 floor of its own week and on top of September’s 4388, and that 4388 is the gate. Hold it and the work starts back at 4405.10, then the 4442, 4443, 4450 stack where the week, September and August all left their volume. That stack decides whether two lower weeks were a pullback or a turn. What argues against it is two straight closes under the value it built, which means sellers own every price from 4405.10 up to 4490 and somebody has to eat through all of them. Lose 4388 and 4382.60 Thursday’s value floor catches, then 4364.70 August’s, then the 4333 week low with 4329.20 September’s low under it.

The White Van Stuff

Every index book expiring between now and Friday is built to push a move along instead of soaking it up, so whatever Wednesday does gets a tailwind it would not normally get. The S&P’s Friday book runs better than two puts for every call and it is the heaviest one on the board. Gold’s Friday book is the mirror image at three and a half calls for every put.

ES: The heaviest line in the S&P book is 7700 and it sits above the 7675 and 7680 pair price is under, with the magnet up at 7750. Below price the book has 7650, then 7625, then a long walk down to the 7500 floor. The week band runs 7526.50 to 7791.50.

NQ: NQ sits a few points under 29400, the single heaviest line in its own book, with the 29450 magnet and the 29500 cap stacked right above it. Everything else the book owns is the 29650 through 29800 ladder or it is out at 30100 and higher. Under price there is 29250 and then the 29000 floor, with nothing in between.

CL: Crude is sitting on its own cap. 100 is the structural line the book drew and price is a penny under it, with 101 through 104 the only interest overhead and the heaviest of that at 102. Everything else this book owns is underneath, a ladder from 98 down through 92.50 into the 88.75 magnet and the 88 floor.

GC: Gold is wedged between the two heaviest lines in its book, 4400 over it and 4390 under it. Above that pair the book thins to 4415 and then the 4450 magnet, with 4510 and 4515 behind it and the cap a long way off at 4725. Under price it steps 4365, 4350, 4325 and then the 4280 and 4275 pair.

Fasten your seatbelts. It’s going to be a bumpy night.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

Stocks are starting the holiday week above last week’s busiest prices, even after Friday’s stronger jobs report put higher rates back in the conversation. That matters because sellers got their headline and still haven’t taken back the middle of the weekly index profiles. Crude is a different problem, trading near the top of its range as weekend tanker strikes added another risk to supply. Gold has already slipped back below its August fair price after Friday’s recovery. I can work with the index recovery, but I don’t see agreement across these four markets yet.

ES: ES is around 7708, above last week’s 7679 fair price but still inside its value area. Friday finished the cash session back inside that same area after trading higher, so buyers have recovered ground without establishing a breakout.

NQ: NQ is around 29563, just above the 29520 where last week’s business concentrated. The overnight push through 29600 didn’t stick, leaving buyers underneath the August fair price again.

CL: Crude is around 92.37 after finishing Friday’s pit session at 91.50. Last week’s recovery carried it back through the entire August value area, and it is now much closer to the weekly high than to the 90.75 where most of last week’s business traded.

GC: Gold is around 4436, below last week’s 4490 fair price and back near the lower edge of weekly value. Friday recovered from its lows into the pit close, but that recovery hasn’t survived the holiday session.

Cross-asset read: The indexes are holding above last week’s fair prices while gold is below its own. Crude staying expensive adds pressure to that split; a stock rally would look better with oil backing into value instead of pressing its high.

Positioning, September 1 report: Large speculators were net short S&P futures and added more shorts than longs. Nasdaq positioning went the other way, with its net-long position improving mostly because shorts covered, not because a wave of new longs showed up.

Vol: Crude is testing the upper end of last week’s range while gold is back near the lower edge of weekly value. Those are the two places where I’d be most careful about treating the first reversal as a lasting turn.

The Calendar

All times Central. The important wrinkle is the holiday schedule: crude inventories move to Thursday at 11:00 a.m., right in the middle of an already busy day.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Whether ES keeps its August value area. Buyers are back above its lower edge, but they haven’t recovered the month’s fair price. Holding the first while working toward the second would make the recovery worth trusting.

2. Whether NQ can stay above its August fair price. It has already traded through it overnight and come back. Another touch tells me very little; business holding above it would tell me something new.

3. Whether expensive crude starts bothering stocks. Oil is near its weekly high while the indexes are still inside weekly value. If crude breaks higher and the indexes lose their recovered ground, the disagreement has a consequence.

4. Whether gold’s recovery gets sold again. It is below both August and last week’s fair prices. Getting back above one is a start; staying above both would make the bearish read harder to defend.

5. Where the new week’s volume builds. A quick push outside last week’s value can come straight back. I want to see business accumulate outside it before calling any of these moves a new weekly trend.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES is above August’s 7688.75 lower value edge, and I favor the recovery while buyers keep that ground. Holding there gives them another chance at 7726.50, the top of last week’s value, then 7766.50, last week’s high. The harder test is 7775, where August did most of its business; staying above that would put the month’s 7798.75 upper value edge in reach. Back under the trigger, 7679 is last week’s fair-price check before 7644, its lower value edge, and a failure there would undo the recovery toward 7618.50, last week’s low.

NQ:

NQ is just below 29600, the August and quarter fair price, after an overnight attempt above it failed. I want buyers holding that price before favoring a run at 29704.50, last week’s high, and then 29931.50, the top of August value. Staying above that upper edge would bring 30065, the quarter’s upper value boundary, into the read. Buyers still have last week’s 29520 fair price underneath them, so a failed breakout alone isn’t enough to make me bearish. Losing that support would expose August’s 29254.75 lower value edge, then last week’s 29155.50 lower value edge, with a full failure pointing back toward the weekly low at 28927.25.

CL:

Crude is above 90.75, where both last week and September have done the most business, so I favor buyers while that price holds. It has just pushed through 92.33, September’s upper value edge; holding above it would favor a test of 93.09, the top of last week’s value, then the weekly high at 93.14. Above that high the supplied weekly and monthly profiles have no higher anchor, and I’m not making one up. Losing 90.75 would change the read, with September’s 89.62 lower value edge first and the quarter’s 88.43 upper value edge below it. Failure through that area brings last week’s 88.28 lower value edge into play, then the August breakout level at 87.69.

GC:

Gold is below the August and quarter fair price at 4450, and I favor sellers until buyers can hold back above it. A recovery still has last week’s 4490 fair price in front of it, followed by September’s 4495 upper value edge, so reclaiming the trigger alone doesn’t finish the repair. Staying above that area would change my read toward last week’s 4542.10 upper value edge and 4558.50 high. On another rejection, last week’s 4420.30 lower value edge is the first test, followed by September’s 4371.10 lower value edge and August’s 4364.70 lower value edge. If that support fails too, last week’s low is 4329.20.

The White Van Stuff

These are Friday’s all-expiry options levels going into the short week. They show where the book has interest, not where price is required to stop, and they’re separate from the volume-profile levels above.

ES: The 7705 magnet is right underneath price, with 7720 the nearest interest above. That is a tight starting point, but the larger cap is still 7800 and the put floor is down at 7650.

NQ: The 29600 cap is the first options obstacle above price, with more interest stacked from 29700 through 30000. Underneath, 29400 and 29300 come before the 29290 magnet, so I wouldn’t skip straight to that magnet on a failed push higher.

CL: Crude has already cleared the 90 cap, which is a useful reminder that the label doesn’t make it a ceiling forever. The nearest interest is 93 above and 92 below, with another cluster extending up to 95.

GC: Gold is below the 4450 magnet, with interest at 4425 immediately underneath. Recovering the magnet would still leave 4470 and 4475 ahead of the 4510 cap; the distant 3900 put floor doesn’t erase the nearer levels below.

Just keep swimming.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

Nvidia said Wednesday night that the spending is real and guided to another year of growth nobody can quite believe, and Thursday the indexes ripped on it with tech doing basically all the lifting. Then Warsh used his first Jackson Hole speech to say inflation is still the job, September went from a maybe to better than a coin flip, and Friday spent the whole session handing Thursday back. Crude got flushed early on the Hormuz reopening talk, found buyers at 79.62, and rebuilt through the back half of the week. Gold ran to 4755 and finished at 4507.90, below everything it accepted getting there.

ES opened the week at 7681.75, traded 7782.50 Thursday, and closed Friday at 7722.50 for a higher week. The volume printed at 7690 and price defended that number every time sellers showed up, but the close came in under 7727.75 where the week’s value topped. Higher week, no acceptance at the top of it.

NQ opened at 29235.50, ran both ends of a 28946.75 to 29811.50 range, and went out Friday at 29496.50. The week built its volume down at 29220 and the close finished above it but under the 29539.25 value ceiling, with 29600 right behind that. The rally quit exactly where August and July both left their POC.

CL opened the week at 85.55, traded 79.62 at the low, and finished Friday at 83.39. The week’s volume came in at 82.34, the same print August built its month on, and Friday settled back above the pair. The whole profile still sits under 84.36, the floor of last week’s value.

GC opened at 4710.60, above last week’s 4690.40 high, printed 4755 for the high of the month, and closed the week at 4507.90. The volume built at 4695 and the week went out under 4642, the floor of its own value. Five sessions of business upstairs and price no longer trades inside any of it.

Cross-asset read: Three of the four closed the week standing on their volume, ES over 7690, NQ over 29220, crude over 82.34. Gold closed under its entire value area. Three charts finishing on their week’s business while the fourth finishes below all of it is the cleanest split on the board.

Positioning (August 25 data): The S&P crowd dumped longs and stacked shorts, going from close to flat to solidly net short right before the tape put in a higher week. The Nasdaq crowd went the other way, covering shorts and flipping to a net long book. Gold’s long crowd is still holding roughly nine longs for every short, which is a lot of people who need 4545 back.

Vol: VIX closed 14.35 Friday, its lowest close of the year. That is protection priced for a quiet September on a tape where gold just traveled from 4755 to 4507.90.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Gold 4545. Last week’s POC and the first price above Friday’s close with real volume behind it. Reclaiming it makes the dump a pullback. The repair that actually changes the read is 4642, the value floor the week lost.

2. The two index ceilings. ES closed under 7727.75 and NQ under 29539.25, both week value highs, and NQ has 29600 stacked behind its own. One clearing while the other stalls tells you this rally is one index dragging the other around.

3. Crude 82.34. The week and August both put their POC on the same print and Friday closed back above it after trading 79.62. That number holding is the difference between a flush inside the auction and a broken chart.

4. The month turn. August settles Monday and the new monthly open prints with it. The old month left its business at ES 7775, NQ 29600, CL 82.34, and GC 4450, and those four numbers stay on my chart all of September.

5. Friday at 7:30. The August labor number lands on a market priced for calm, and every read above this line is conditional until it prints. If the week has not resolved by Thursday, size down and let it.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

7727.75 is where this week’s value topped out and ES finished the week at 7722.50, right underneath it after defending 7690 the whole way. That defense is my lean, because every test of the week’s POC got bought, and the buyers showed up at the same number on the ugly sessions too. What I do not have is acceptance, since Thursday’s push to 7782.50 came all the way back and the close never got over the ceiling. Take 7727.75 back and 7744, where last week capped its value, is the first work, then 7775 the POC August built, with 7782.50 the week’s high behind it. Clear those and 7799.50 August’s ceiling opens 7824.50 last week’s high and 7838.50, the highest print of the month. Lose 7690 and 7680.50, where the prior week’s value bottomed, catches first, then the shelf at 7661 and 7655 where the week put in its floor. Under that shelf there is nothing until 7632 July’s high and 7611 its value ceiling, with 7546 July’s POC where the real volume sits.

NQ:

29600 is the number, because August and July both left their POC on that print and two months building on one price makes it the most honest level on the chart. NQ ran 29811.50 this week and still closed 29496.50, under the 29539.25 ceiling its own value built with 29600 right behind it. The week did repair the breakdown, taking its 29220 POC back and closing above it, and that counts for something. It does not count for a lean until a close lands over 29600. Reclaim it and 29683.50 last week’s ceiling comes first, then 29811.50 the high that already failed once, with 29931.50 August’s ceiling and 30076.25 July’s above it and 30343 the month’s high past those. Lose 29292.25, the prior week’s value floor, and 29252.50 August’s catches right under it, then 29220 the week’s POC, with the shelf at 28956.50 and 28946.75 where the week bottomed as the gate. Break that and there is nothing until 28448.25 where July’s value began, then 28258.25, the low August left.

CL:

82.34 is the week’s POC sitting on August’s, and crude closed 83.39 back above the pair after trading 79.62 at the low. That recovery is the healthiest thing on the commodity side of the board, because the flush found real buyers and the week still ended standing on its own volume. The catch is location, since the entire week’s profile built below 84.36, the bottom of last week’s distribution, so everything above price is repair it has not earned. Hold 82.34 and 84.36 is the first real target, then 84.94 the week’s ceiling with the 85.08 and 85.80 shelf where July and August capped their value. Clear those and 86.60 last week’s POC is the gate, with 86.69 the week’s high printing on it and 87.39 last week’s ceiling and 88.07 July’s high above. Lose 82.34 and 81.25 the week’s value floor catches, then the 80 shelf where July’s POC sits on August’s floor, with 79.62 the week’s low under it. Below that there is nothing structural until 76.22 where July’s value bottomed, and 73.10 is the low August left.

GC:

4545 is last week’s POC and the first price above Friday’s 4507.90 close with real volume behind it, and gold does not get trusted from the long side until it takes that number back. The week opened over last week’s 4690.40 high, printed 4755, and closed under 4642 where its own value bottomed, which means the market built a week of business it no longer trades inside. The one argument against pressing it lower is 4450, the POC August spent a whole month building, still sitting untested under price. Reclaim 4545 and 4614.30 last week’s ceiling is the next job, then 4642 where the repair gets real. Over that, the shelf where 4689.40 August’s value ceiling, 4690.40 last week’s high and 4695 this week’s POC all print together is the wall, with 4728.70 the week’s ceiling and 4755 behind it. Lose 4450 and 4427.70 last week’s value floor catches, then 4378 the low it made and 4363.90 where August’s value began. Under that there is air until 4276.20, the high July left.

The White Van Stuff

The index books rebuilt right around Friday’s close instead of leaning either direction, which reads like positioning that wants to see Friday before it commits. Gold’s book made the loudest move on the board, walking its cap down from 4750 to 4510 in one week. Crude’s never moved at all, with the heavy interest sitting from 83 through 85 across the entire flush and recovery.

ES: The cage on ES is tight, with 7770 the nearest line overhead, the 7800 cap behind it, and the 7700 cluster over the 7675 magnet underneath. The band runs 7672.42 to 7777.08, which does not even cover the range the week just traded. Price is 7724.75, over the 7700 stack and under the 7770.

NQ: NQ is parked on 29500, the nearest heavy line in the book, with 29600 the next one up and the cap at 30000. Underneath there is the 29410 magnet and then nothing with real weight until 28000. Price is 29509.50, sitting on the 29500 with 29600 in front of it.

CL: Crude’s book never blinked, with the heavy interest still running 83 through 85 even after price traded out the bottom of the band and came back. The floor side is the 81.50 magnet sitting on 81.39 where the band ends. Price is 83.44, between the 83 and the 83.50.

GC: Gold’s book pulled its cap from 4750 down to 4510 and price closed the week right underneath the new one. Overhead it stacks 4525, 4530 and 4550, and the floor side runs 4450 into the 4435 magnet sitting on 4438.93 where the band bottoms. Price is 4504.10, under the 4510 cap and over the 4475.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

The long end of the bond market ran the whole show. The thirty-year printed its highest yield since 2007 on Tuesday, the national debt crossed forty trillion, and the indexes bled for four straight sessions while the Treasury stepped in to double its long-term buybacks. By Friday yields had stopped climbing and everything on the board bounced at once. Crude put in its second straight up week as Washington moved from airstrikes to open economic warfare on Iran, with the actual sanctions package due Monday. Gold got flushed into the 4390s midweek, reversed the whole thing in a day, and finished at its highest price in three months on the weaker dollar and the debt math.

ES opened the week at 7803 and closed Friday at 7691.75, with all the damage done Tuesday through Thursday. The two-week shelf both prior weeks built near 7770 gave way in one session and price never came back to it. The week put its volume at 7725.50 and closed below it, resting on its own value floor at 7682.75.

NQ opened at 30219.25, tagged 30286.75 Monday, and closed Friday at 29396.25 after a five-session slide that bottomed at 29202.50 Thursday. The week did its business at 29600 and price finished under it, standing on a floor where the week’s 29311.50, July’s 29300 POC, and August’s 29295.25 all landed together.

CL rolled to the new front contract midweek, so every crude number in this brief is post-roll, read them fresh. On the new contract it opened the week at 82.16, ran to 87.46, and closed at 86.65, dead on its own week POC at 86.60. Second straight up week, and unlike the last one it closed on top of the pile instead of under it.

GC opened the week at 4450.90, got flushed to 4392.30 Tuesday, and closed Friday at 4674.70 after printing 4690.30 on the high. The week’s volume sits way back at 4549 and price finished nowhere near it. It ended the week above every structure on the chart except its own Friday high.

Cross-asset read: Last week the indexes closed on top of their volume while crude and gold closed under theirs. This week the split flipped sides: ES and NQ finished below the value they built, the commodities finished sitting on or above it. Four charts swapped ends of the same trade in five sessions.

Positioning (August 18 data): The trader crowd on the S&P flipped net long at the top two weeks ago after leaning against the rally all summer, and by Tuesday it had dumped the longs and gone back to flat-short. The Nasdaq crowd finally collected on its short lean and covered most of it into the slide. Gold’s long crowd sits on about 220,000 contracts and got the week it was built for, while the crude crowd is carrying less than thirty thousand into the second up week in a row.

Vol: VIX closed at 15.13, up on the week even after Friday’s bounce knocked it back. Protection is still cheap for a week with this much on the schedule.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Wednesday, both ends of it. The inflation print at 7:30 reprices September in the morning and Nvidia reprices the growth trade after the close. If those two disagree, Thursday gets violent.

2. The 29300 shelf on NQ. The week’s value floor, July’s POC, and August’s value floor all stacked together, and Friday’s bounce started there. Everything above it is repair. Everything below it is a broken month.

3. The auctions. Two-year Tuesday, five-year Wednesday, seven-year Thursday, the first coupon slate since the long bond cracked and the Treasury started buying back its own paper. Weak takedowns restart the whole problem.

4. The Friday keynote. The new chair has spent his first summer saying as little as possible, and September is priced at about one in three. A first Jackson Hole speech is the one stage where even saying nothing moves markets.

5. Crude with the package pending. The sanctions detail lands Monday and crude opens tonight parked at 86.65, right on the shelf that decides its week. Tanker traffic through the lane is still running at a fifth of normal.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES goes into the week standing on 7682.75, its own value floor, with Friday’s 7684.50 floor printed right on top of it. That is the trigger. Hold it and the repair work reads 7700 Friday’s value ceiling, 7713.75 where August bottoms its value, then 7725.50 the week POC, the line my whole lean hangs on. Over 7725.50 the stack thickens: 7743.50 last week’s floor sitting against 7745.75 the week’s ceiling, 7770 August POC, 7805.25 last week’s value top, and 7838.50 the August high to finish it. Lose 7682.75 and the first stop is 7658.75 the week low, and under that the chart goes hollow: 7627.25 July’s high, 7615 July’s value ceiling, and then nothing with real volume until 7546 July POC.

NQ:

NQ closed at 29396.25 with a three-timeframe floor directly underneath: 29311.50 the week’s value floor, 29300 July POC, 29295.25 August’s value floor, one shelf wearing three names. That shelf is the trigger. Hold it and the repair runs 29534.25 last week’s floor, 29600 the week POC, then 29701 the week’s value ceiling into 29760, where August and last week put their POCs on the same tick. Through 29760 the air opens to 29932 August’s value ceiling, 30286.75 the week high, then July’s 30311 ceiling and 30356.50 high, the pair still capping everything. Lose the shelf and 29202.50 the week low is the only thing left, and below that the chart is empty to 28457.75 July’s value floor and 28313.25 the August low.

CL:

Crude closed at 86.65 sitting on 86.60, where the week and August share a POC, and that shelf is the trigger. Above it the room is thin: 87.18 Friday’s value ceiling, 87.39 the week’s, then 87.46 where the week topped with August’s ceiling printed on the same price, and 88.07 the July high with nothing but open air past it. Below 86.60 the first catch is 86.13 Friday’s low, then 85.08 July’s value ceiling and 84.37 the week’s floor. Lose 84.37 and it falls into 82.31 July POC with last week’s 82.33 high right on it, the gate for the whole rally. Under the gate it reads 81.35 the week low and 80.82 August’s value floor, with nothing else until 76.11 July’s floor.

GC:

Gold is in open air. It closed Friday at 4674.70 with exactly two prints above it on the whole chart, 4676.30 Friday’s value ceiling and 4690.30 the week high, and past those there is nothing but whatever it builds next. The line underneath is 4640.90, where August tops its value, with Friday’s 4640 volume printed on it, and that is the trigger. Hold it and the discovery continues. Lose it and the steps down read 4629.80 Friday’s floor, 4566 the week’s value ceiling, 4549 the week POC, then 4502.40, the top of the old run and the gate for the whole move. Under the gate the unwind runs 4450 where last week and August share a POC, 4405.50 the week’s floor on last week’s 4403.70, and 4392.30 the week low, with 4253.20 the July high the last thing on the board.

The White Van Stuff

The books that spent two weeks pinned at the top of their yearly range let go. The S&P book unwound to the bottom half of its year and the tech book is near the floor of its own, while the weight moved to the other side of the board: gold’s book is up near the top of its year and energy sits heavy. Nothing on the equity side is pinned going into the report.

ES: The book followed price down: the cap that sat at 7900 all month is 7800 now, the floor is 7600, and the magnet at 7725 lands square on the week POC, options and structure agreeing on one line. Price closed at 7691.75, under the magnet, with the band running 7624.60 to 7750.90.

NQ: The tech book hollowed out on the way down: the cap fell to 30000 with the expected top printed on it at 29985.24, the magnet sits overhead at 29500, and below 28950 there is one line at 28500 before the 28000 floor. Price closed at 29396.25, below the magnet.

CL: Crude’s book is the only one leaning bullish outright: the heaviest interest stacks 86.50 through 88 right on top of spot, the cap is 90, and the band runs 84.23 to 89.05. The magnet at 80.75 is a leftover from the price crude quit trading two weeks ago. It closed at 86.65, inside the heavy stack.

GC: Gold’s book chased harder than anything on the board: the cap moved from 4510 to 4750 in one week and the interest ladder rebuilt itself 4575 through 4725 around spot. The 4340 magnet and the 3900 floor have not caught up and mean nothing this week. Price closed at 4674.70, pressed against the 4675 to 4700 cluster.

Stops? Where we’re going, we don’t need stops.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

Two inflation prints landed Tuesday and Wednesday and neither one was hot, which took a September hike from a coin flip down to about one in three, and the S&P used it to clear 7,800 for the first time. Then Friday the retail number came in at down six tenths against a forecast for a small gain, and the rally stopped right there. Crude ran about five percent on renewed pressure over the Strait of Hormuz, so the one chart nobody wanted to own two weeks ago turned into the best trade on the board. Gold went to 4502.40 Wednesday, found out what air smells like, and gave most of it back. The Russell printed a fresh record Friday while the Nasdaq spent the day going nowhere.

ES opened the week at 7773 and closed Friday at 7805.50, and in between it printed 7838.50, the highest price the contract has traded. Value settled at 7773.75, sitting almost exactly on last week’s 7765.75, so two weeks running the market did its business in the same handle. Friday closed dead on 7805.25, the ceiling the week built.

NQ opened at 29805.50 and closed Friday at 30144.25, and it spent the week doing the one thing last week’s plan asked for: it went back and cleaned up the 30074 print nobody had touched. The high is 30280.50 and it went in Friday, which leaves July’s 30311 ceiling and 30356.50 high as the only two things overhead. Value built at 29760, right on top of last week’s 29750, and price closed nowhere near it.

CL opened at 79.73 and closed at 82.40 after tagging 83.62, the best week crude has had since the spring. The odd part is where the volume went. The week POC printed 83.19, above where price finished, and August’s POC printed there too, so the market built its value at the top of the range and then closed under it.

GC opened at 4387.70, ran to 4502.40 midweek, and closed at 4431.30, which is a gain on the week and does not feel like one. Value came in at 4450, above the close, the same shape crude drew. Friday held a tight range from 4427.20 to 4454.80 and finished at 4431.30, right underneath its own value floor at 4432.30.

Positioning (August 11 data): The trader crowd on the S&P finally quit, adding almost 17,000 longs and covering better than 12,000 shorts to go net long after weeks of leaning against the rally. The Nasdaq crowd did the opposite and put on another 9,200 shorts. Gold’s long crowd added 26,000 contracts at the highs while the crude crowd was cutting longs into the best week it has had all summer.

Vol: VIX closed at 14.25, lower again. Protection is the cheapest it has been all month going into a week whose only scheduled event is a set of minutes.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Wednesday at 1:00. Two cool prints already knocked September down to about one in three. The minutes tell you how close the argument actually got, and that is the whole week in one release.

2. NQ 30311 and 30356.50. July’s value ceiling with July’s high stacked right behind it. NQ cleaned up the 30074 poor high last week, and this pair is the only structure left between price and open air.

3. ES 7773.75 on 7765.75. Two weeks of volume in one handle. Holds and the record is a base. Loses and the whole thing was a blowoff that took two weeks to admit it.

4. Crude’s own 83.19. The week put its volume above where it closed. Reclaim it and the move is accepted. Fail that number and the whole rally reads as a retrace inside a broken market.

5. The retail slate. Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s and Walmart all report onto a consumer number that just fell the most in over a year. Four chances for somebody to say out loud what Friday’s data already said.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES has built two straight weeks of volume on the same handle, 7773.75 this week sitting right on top of 7765.75 last week, and that stack is the whole plan. Over that stack the map runs 7797 Friday’s value floor, 7805.25 where the week topped its value, with Friday’s 7805.50 close right on it, then 7813 where last week capped its value and 7820.25 last week’s high. Take out 7830.75 Friday’s high and 7838.50 is the record, with nothing overhead but whatever gets built up there. Below 7773.75 the first catch is 7743.50, the floor of the week’s build. Lose 7724.25, where last week’s value bottomed, with August’s 7724.75 sitting right on it, and the two-week shelf is gone. Under that there is a real gap before 7627.25 July’s high and 7615 July’s value ceiling, with 7546 July POC where the month put its actual volume.

NQ:

NQ did what last week’s plan asked and went back for the 30074 print it left hanging, then kept going to 30280.50 Friday. The line now is 30105.25, where the week topped its value, and Friday closed above it. Hold there and the only structure left is 30311 July’s value ceiling with 30356.50 July’s high behind it, and above that pair there is nothing on the chart at all. Below 30105.25 the first catch is 30067.25, where August tops its value. Lose that and the drop runs to 29760 week POC and 29750 last week’s POC, the same handle two weeks running and the gate for this entire read. Under 29750 it steps 29534.25, the week’s own floor, then 29467 where last week’s value bottomed, with August’s 29471.75 stacked on it, then air down to 29300 July POC and 28457.75 July’s value floor.

CL:

Crude had its best week of the summer and still closed under its own volume. 83.19 is the week POC and August’s POC on the same price, and Friday finished at 82.40, underneath it. Reclaim 83.19 and the move gets accepted, with 83.34 the week’s ceiling, 83.45 August’s, and 83.62 the week high right above it. Clear that shelf and 84.50 July’s POC is the real target, then 88.48 July’s value ceiling and 93.51 the July high a long way behind it. Fail at 83.19 and the first catch is 81.33, the floor the week drew, then 79.17 the week low and 78.12 where last week capped out. Lose 77.04, where August’s value bottoms on top of July’s 77.03, and the whole rally was a retrace, with 75.75 last week’s POC and 74.44 last week’s low underneath.

GC:

Gold made the high of the run at 4502.40 and spent the back half of the week handing it back, and it closed under its own volume too. 4450 is the week POC and the line that decides whether the run is still a run. Over 4450, the number 4460.80 caps what the week built, then 4502.40 where the week topped, with August’s 4502.70 ceiling right there with it, and past it there is no structure at all. Below 4450 the first step is 4435, Friday’s volume, then 4432.30 its value floor, which price closed just underneath. Lose 4403.70, the floor the week set, and 4375 the week low is the gate. Under 4375 it runs 4363.60, last week’s ceiling, then air down to 4304.70 where August bottoms its value and 4301 where last week put its POC, with 4253.20 July’s high the last thing on the board.

The White Van Stuff

The equity books are back at the top of their one-year range, the S&P near the ninetieth percentile and the tracking book on tech at ninety-seven, which is the setup that pins price until something big enough shows up to unpin it. The long end carries the opposite, sitting at the very bottom of its own year. Energy is stacked as heavy as equities while the metals books are dead center, so gold is still running on buying rather than positioning.

ES: The structural cap on ES is 7800 and price closed above it Friday, so the book got run over on the way to the record. Overhead the interest stacks 7825, 7850 and 7875 into the 7900 line. Underneath, the magnet at 7745 sits right on the bottom of the expected band.

NQ: The whole tech book is stacked overhead. Every heavy line but two sits above Friday’s close, running 30250, 30400 and 30500 into a shelf from 30600 up to 30800, with the cap parked at 31000. Below price there is 30100, 30000, the magnet at 29890, and then nothing until 28000.

CL: Crude closed inside the densest part of its own book, with 82, 82.50 and 83 all sitting within reach of the settle. The ladder above runs 83.50, 84, 85 and 86 with no gap anywhere in the stack, and the cap is still 90. The magnet is 80.50.

GC: Gold’s cap is 4510 and the week high stopped underneath it, and the book has not moved the number since. Overhead the lines run 4450, 4480, 4525 and 4550. The magnet is way down at 4340, below everything the week traded, and the 3900 floor is a leftover from a different price.

If you use 45-minute candles, feel free to yell at me in the chat this week. I am man; I’m 40.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Week That Was

Monday opened the month with a rip and never really gave it back. Friday’s jobs report showed the economy lost 23,000 of them in July with unemployment at 4.1%, and the tape took that as good news, because a labor market going backwards makes it a lot harder to argue for another hike in September. Crude went the other direction all week after Washington called off the strikes on Iran and started talking about opening the shipping lane, and the war premium came out of the barrel in about two sessions. Gold ignored every bit of it and kept making highs anyway. VIX finished at 14.90.

ES opened the week at 7550 and closed Friday at 7778.25, spending Wednesday through Friday building value in a band it never lost. Value for the week settled at 7765.75 and the whole build sits above July’s high, so the entire prior month is underneath price now. Friday was a tight rotation inside 7743.50 to 7787.

NQ opened at 28565 and closed Friday at 29834, and the whole move happened Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday tagged 30074 and nothing has been back there since, which leaves a poor high sitting up top and July’s 30356.50 waiting behind it. Value for the week built at 29750 and Friday closed on the right side of it.

CL opened the week at 80.10, got taken apart Tuesday when the strike got called off, and bottomed at 74.44 Wednesday before crawling back. The week put its volume way down at 75.75 while Friday’s value rebuilt up at 77.54 to 78.44, so the recovery is real and it is standing on thin ground. It trades 78.72 tonight, back inside July’s value.

GC opened the week at 4083.40 and closed Friday at 4403.10 after tagging 4432.40. Value for the week centered at 4301 with a value area running from 4090.30 to 4363.60, which is what a market in full price discovery looks like on a profile. Friday built a tight shelf at 4393.30 to 4416.70 and it opened this week right back on it.

Cross-asset read: Equities and gold ran together all week, which means the market bought the growth story and the debasement story at the same time and did not feel weird about it. Crude was the only one of the four pricing a calmer world. Three charts at or near records and the fourth sitting back inside last month’s value is not a set of prices that all stay right.

Positioning (August 4 data): The trader crowd went into last week’s rip net short on both indexes, and on the Nasdaq they stacked on more shorts while barely touching the long side. Anybody leaning against this tape has been getting carried out. There is still fuel in that if it keeps running.

Vol: VIX closed at 14.90. That is priced for a quiet week, and last week’s range on all four of these says otherwise.

The Calendar

Monday: Bill auctions, nothing else. Light day.

Tuesday: NFIB small business at 5:00 AM CT, existing home sales at 9:00 AM CT, 3-year note auction at 12:00 PM CT.

Wednesday: CPI at 7:30 AM CT. Crude inventories at 9:30 AM CT, 10-year auction at 12:00 PM CT.

Thursday: PPI and jobless claims at 7:30 AM CT, Hammack and Barkin speak midday, 30-year auction at 12:00 PM CT. Applied Materials reports after the close.

Friday: Retail sales at 7:30 AM CT, Michigan sentiment at 9:00 AM CT.

No big tech reports this week. Wednesday 7:30 is the one that reprices everything.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. CPI Wednesday. The whole week is a coin flip until this lands. Every level below is a plan, not a prediction.

2. NQ 30074. Wednesday’s high, untouched for two sessions, and it went in without a taper. Poor highs get revisited before they get respected. July’s 30356.50 is the one behind it.

3. ES 7724.25. The floor of last week’s build. Everything above it is a market that broke out of July and held. Below it is a market that faded a breakout, and those two read very differently on Thursday morning.

4. CL 77.03. July’s value low. The bounce off 74.44 is either a real base or a dead-cat inside a broken market, and this is the line that answers it.

5. Gold’s 4301. Where the week did its business. Price is well above it and price discovery moves fast in both directions. Nothing structural until it gets back there.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES spent three sessions building a shelf and closed the week standing on top of it. 7765.75 is where the week did its business and the line the whole plan hangs on. Above it the first stop is 7787 Friday’s high, then 7813 week VAH, then 7820.25 the week high where the auction quit. Clear 7820.25 and there is nothing overhead but price discovery, because July’s whole range is underneath. Below 7765.75 the first catch is 7761 Friday VAL, then 7743.50 Friday’s low. Lose 7724.25 week VAL and the shelf is gone, and the slide runs into 7627.25 July’s high and 7615 July VAH stacked on top of each other. Under those two the real volume is at 7546 July POC, with 7541 the prior week’s high stacked right underneath it.

NQ:

NQ did all its work Monday and Tuesday and has been sitting still ever since. 29750 is the week’s volume and Friday closed above it. Above there 29960.25 week VAH is the first cap, then 30074, the high nobody has been back to since Wednesday. That print has no taper and no excess on it, so treat it as a magnet before you treat it as a wall. Clear it and 30311 July VAH and 30356.50 July’s high are the next two. Below 29750 fails and 29690 Friday VAL catches the first leg, then 29564.25 Friday’s low. Lose 29467 week VAL and there is air underneath down to 29300 July POC, then 28726 the prior week’s high and 28457.75 July VAL where the real volume sits.

CL:

Crude got taken apart Tuesday and has been rebuilding ever since, and it goes into the week standing on 78.12, last week’s value high. Above 78.12 it works to 78.50 Friday’s high, then 80.65 the week high where the breakdown started. Through 80.65 and the real target is 82.18 prior week VAL, then 84.50, where both July and the prior week parked their POC. Below 78.12 fails and 77.54 Friday VAL is the first catch, then 77.03 July’s value low. Lose 77.03 and 75.75 week POC is the magnet, with 74.73 week VAL and 74.44 the week low underneath it.

GC:

Gold is in price discovery and there is nothing above it except the number it prints next. 4363.60 is last week’s value high and the line that keeps this thing vertical. Above it Friday’s 4416.70 value high is the first shelf, then 4432.40, the week’s high and the record. Over 4432.40 there is no structure at all, only whatever the auction decides to build up there. Below 4363.60 fails and 4301 week POC is where the volume actually sits. Under 4301 it gets fast, because the week’s value area ran all the way down to 4090.30 with almost nothing in between, and the first real structure is 4253.20 July’s high, then 4148.70 July VAH.

The White Van Stuff

The book on the S&P is sitting at the top of its one-year range and the Nasdaq is not far behind it, so positioning is stacked heavy enough to pin these things until something big enough shows up to move them. Bonds are carrying almost none of that, down near the bottom of the year. Gold, silver and crude are all sitting mid-range, which means the metals move is running on actual buying instead of positioning.

ES: The cap is way up at 7900 and the interest between here and there is stacked thick, so the path higher is heavy without being blocked. Underneath, the book thins out fast. The next real shelf below price is the magnet at 7605.

NQ: The put floor is 29750, which is exactly where it closed the week, so the whole book is balanced on the line price is standing on. The cap is far away at 31000 and the interest thins out badly above 30250. Below 29750 the next real shelf is 29200.

CL: Crude is parked right on its magnet at 78.50, which is the most honest thing on the chart tonight. The band runs 74.34 to 79.82 and the cap is still up at 85, so the book has not written off a move back up. The floor is 74.

GC: The cap is 4510 and price is already inside reach of it, which tells you how fast this move outran its own book. The floor at 3900 is a leftover from a different price and does nothing this week. The live line underneath is the magnet at 4340.

Let’s work the problem, people.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Week That Was

Two halves that never met each other. Monday and Tuesday crude handed back everything the Strait of Hormuz scare had put into it, printing 77.78 by Tuesday afternoon, and equities got no credit for it because the long end would not stop selling. Wednesday the rate decision came in as a hold at 3.50 to 3.75 with three people dissenting in favor of raising, the thirty-year printed its highest yield since 2007, and both indexes came apart, NQ down to 27201.50 and ES to 7324. Then Microsoft cleared a hundred billion on the cloud business and put in the biggest single day in company history, Amazon backed it up Thursday night, and by Friday the entire drawdown was gone. Apple was the one exception, warning on supply and falling out of the five trillion club on the same tape that was celebrating everybody else.

ES opened the week at 7507.75 and closed Friday at 7520.25, which after a round trip down to 7324 and back is a whole lot of nothing. The week built its volume at 7469.50, July’s value bottomed at 7469.25, and Friday’s own VAL landed at 7469.75. Three timeframes agreeing on the same price is not a coincidence, that is the line.

NQ opened at 28590.50 and closed Friday at 28402.75, down about two thirds of a percent and still the worst chart of the four. It printed 27201.50 Wednesday, the lowest number on the board since June, took the whole week’s damage back in two sessions, then stalled and closed under 28446.50, the value floor built one week earlier. The week POC sits way down at 28050, so price and volume are not in the same neighborhood yet.

CL opened the week already gapped under the prior Friday’s 89.76 settle, bled to 77.78 by Tuesday, and closed at 84.77. The week POC printed 84.50, July’s POC printed 84.50, and the week before that stacked at 84.38. Crude spent a month running to 93.50 and falling to 67 and the volume never once left the mid 84s.

GC opened at 4145.30 and closed Friday at 4107.70, down about a percent, and it did it while gold rolled into the December contract, so every number on the chart reset higher. Last week’s levels are dead, use these. On the new contract Friday, the week, and July all put their POC at 4102, and price closed sitting on it.

Cross-asset read: The trade that ran all of July finally broke. Crude fell every day of the front half and equities did not care, which means the tape has quit pricing oil as the inflation input and gone back to trading company results. What is underneath both indexes now is the long end of the bond market, and that is what took them apart Wednesday.

Positioning (July 28 data): The trader crowd on the S&P covered a chunk of what it had on and went into the drop leaning short by only about 3,900. The Nasdaq crowd did the opposite and pushed its short lean past 11,000, so whoever added there got run over Thursday and Friday. Crude’s long crowd came down to roughly 32,200 from north of 42,000, and gold’s long crowd is still sitting on 174,000 net long with nothing at all to show for it.

Vol: VIX closed Friday at 15.99 after closing the week prior at 18.58. Everything bought for protection into Wednesday got dumped back out on the way to the weekend.

The Calendar

All times CT.

Monday, August 3

- 8:45 S&P Global manufacturing, final for July

- 9:00 ISM manufacturing for July, construction spending

- Palantir reports after the close

Tuesday, August 4

- AMD and Eli Lilly report after the close, and SpaceX files its first quarter as a public company

Thursday, August 6

- 7:30 Jobless claims, second quarter productivity and unit labor costs

Friday, August 7

- 7:30 Nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate for July

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Friday at 7:30. The number penciled in is 83,000 with unemployment at 4.3%. For three years a big print was the good news and it is not anymore, because the case being argued is a hike and futures have September at better than a coin flip.

2. 7469 on ES. Week POC, July’s VAL, and Friday’s VAL all landed on the same price. Above it the repair keeps working. Below it and Thursday and Friday were a bounce inside a broken week.

3. Crude at 84.50. Three weekly profiles in a row have stacked their volume in the same handle. The output answer comes out over the weekend and crude opens tonight on it, and whichever side of 84.50 it settles on is where it spends the week.

4. NQ 28446. The prior week’s floor of value. NQ traded above it Friday and closed back under, so it has one failure on the board already. It needs a close over it before the 28810 magnet means anything.

5. The long end. The thirty-year printed its highest yield since 2007 on Wednesday and the tape spent the next two sessions buying long-duration tech anyway. One of those two is wrong and they do not usually stay wrong together for long.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES closed the week on the cleanest confluence on any of my four charts. 7469.50 is the week POC, July’s value bottomed at 7469.25, and Friday’s VAL came in at 7469.75. Above that shelf the repair keeps going and the first real work is 7486 week VAH, then 7541 where the week topped out, then 7546, where the prior week and July both stacked their POC. Clear 7546 and it opens 7563.50 prior week high, 7608 July’s value ceiling, and 7632 July’s high, with 7693.75 June’s high the last one on the board. Lose 7469 and 7455.25, prior week VAL, is the first catch, then 7440 June’s POC, which is the gate. Under 7440 the steps are 7427.50 Friday’s low, 7411.75 prior week low, and 7403.50 the week’s VAL, and below that the record thins out to 7364.75 June’s value floor and 7324, the low July and the week share.

NQ:

NQ is the one that still has to prove it. 28446.50, the value floor the prior week built, is the line, and Friday traded above it and closed back under at 28402.75. Reclaim it and hold and the work overhead reads 28726 Friday’s high, then 28763.20 the week’s high, then 28810, where the prior week stacked its POC and where the volume actually sits. Over that it is 29203 prior week VAH, 29247.80 June’s VAL, and 29364.80 prior week high, with 29600 July’s POC the number nobody is talking about yet. Lose 28376.20 July’s VAL and price falls back under 28299.50 week VAH, then 28212.50 prior week low, which is the gate. Under 28212.50 the steps are 28079.25 Friday’s low and 28050 the week POC, and there is nothing built beneath that until 27579.80 week VAL and 27201.50, the July low.

CL:

Crude has now built three straight weekly profiles on top of the same price. 84.50 is the week POC and July’s POC, the week before that stacked at 84.38, and Friday closed at 84.77 sitting right on the pile. Above 84.50 the push reads 85.38 week VAH, then Friday’s 85.55 value top and 86.01 high, then 88.07 July’s value ceiling with 89.66 prior week VAH and 89.90 June’s high over that. 93.50, the high July and the prior week share, is the extension and it needs a supply headline to get there. Below 84.50 it drops to 84.44 Friday’s VAL and 83.04 June’s value ceiling, then 81.83 the week’s value floor, which is the gate. Under 81.83 the ladder is 80.95 prior week VAL, 79.58 prior week low, and 77.78 the week’s low, and there is nothing structural beneath that until 69.50 June’s POC.

GC:

Gold rolled into December, so read this card fresh and throw the old numbers away. 4102 is where Friday, the week, and July all put their POC, and price closed on it at 4107.70. Above 4102 the first work is 4109 Friday’s value ceiling, 4110.40 prior week VAL, and 4115 Friday’s high, then 4143 where the week topped its value with 4151.30 July’s ceiling stacked right over it. Clear that pair and what is left is 4180.20 the week’s high, 4230 prior week high, and 4276.20 July’s high. Below 4102 it steps 4093.60 Friday’s VAL, 4085.10 June’s POC, and 4076.70 July’s value floor sitting right on Friday’s 4076.50 low, then 4068.70 the week’s VAL, which is the gate. Under 4068.70 it is 4053.90 the week’s low and 4044 prior week low, then air down to 4019, July’s low.

The White Van Stuff

ES: ES finished at 7520.25 with interest at 7525 and 7535 stacked immediately overhead and the heaviest line of the whole book at 7550. The 7450 magnet and the 7439 implied low are the only things underneath before it falls away to the 7200 put floor.

NQ: The tech book has price at 28402.75 with 28550 the first thing over it and then almost nothing until the 29000 cap. Underneath it is stacked tight, 28300 and 28200 and then the 28040 magnet sitting on top of the 28000 put floor.

CL: Crude’s single heaviest line is 85, sitting right on top of where price settled. The whole call structure that got dragged up into 100 during the run has come back down to a 95 cap, and the 80.50 magnet and 77.50 put floor are what hold the bottom.

GC: Gold’s book did not roll with the contract. The 4510 cap and the 4340 magnet both sit above July’s high, which is a book built for a price gold has not been near in a month, while the real weight underneath is 4050 and the put floor is parked at 3900.

Be safe. Plenty of points to steal this week. Be Patient.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

Two stories ran this tape all week and spent the whole time fighting each other. Crude went vertical with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a standstill, opening the week at 84.14 and settling Friday at 89.76 after tagging 93.50 midweek, and every dollar of that showed up somewhere else as an inflation problem. Thursday was the break, when the worry about how much these companies are spending on AI finally hit the whole tech book at once and the Mag7 shed the better part of a trillion dollars in a single session. The S&P and the Nasdaq both booked a second straight losing week and the Dow a third. Gold, which is supposed to own a week exactly like this one, did nothing at all, because higher oil means higher inflation expectations means a central bank that stays put or goes the other way, and that math cancels the safety bid every time.

ES opened the week at 7526 and closed Friday at 7448, down about a percent. The week stacked its volume way up at 7546 and then spent Thursday and Friday living underneath it, closing under the 7455.25 value floor with the range bottomed at 7411.75. Friday itself was a rotation that went nowhere, a 7442 POC and a 7448 close, parked right on top of June’s 7440 POC.

NQ opened at 29222.50 and closed Friday at 28283.50, down better than three percent and the ugliest chart of the four. It built value at 28810 early in the week, lost the whole thing, undercut last week’s 28408.20 floor and printed 28212.25 Friday, the lowest the chart has been all summer. The close came in under a 28465 POC, so the sellers got the last word.

CL opened at 84.14 and closed Friday at 89.76, up close to seven percent and the only chart that actually mattered. The run to 93.50 stacked its value way down at 84.38, which tells you how much of that move happened in thin air. Friday rotated 87.68 to 90.56 on an 88.40 POC and settled just over the week’s 89.66 value ceiling, so acceptance is on a knife edge.

GC opened at 4063.50 and closed Friday at 4056.10, flat on the week inside a 3986.50 to 4171.40 range that went both directions and finished in the middle. The week POC printed 4050 and Friday closed a hair over it on a 4061 POC. Two weeks now of chopping the same zone with nothing to show for it.

Cross-asset read: Oil and equities were tied together on one string all week and gold was cut loose from both. Every crude push showed up as an equity sale inside the hour, which tells you the tape is trading this as a rate problem, not a supply problem. NQ eating the whole loss while ES gave back a percent says this is a tech-multiple story rather than a broad-market one.

Positioning (July 21 data): The trader crowd went into the drop leaning short both indexes, roughly 6,800 on the S&P and 9,400 on the Nasdaq, after covering more than 21,000 S&P shorts the week before. So the ones still leaning short actually got paid, which does not happen often enough to plan around. The crude long crowd is loaded at about 42,700 net long as of Tuesday, and that count is from before Thursday’s run to 93.50.

Vol: VIX finished Friday at 18.58 after living in the sixteens the week before, so protection costs more than it did seven days ago.

The Calendar

Wednesday afternoon is the whole week. The decision at 1:00, the press conference at 1:30, then Microsoft and Meta landing inside ninety minutes of the close. Thursday afternoon: Apple and Amazon.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Wednesday at 1:00. Everybody has a hold penciled in at 3.50 to 3.75. The trade is not the decision, it is whether the language leaves the door cracked for a hike later this year, because crude living up here has that probability climbing fast.

2. NQ 28212. Friday’s low is the bottom of everything on my chart since June and there is no volume shelf under it. Accept below and price is in discovery with nothing to catch it until the round number at 28000.

3. CL 89.66. Crude closed over the top of weekly value for the first time in the run, and barely. Hold it and 93.50 comes back into play, lose it and the whole thing unwinds toward 84.38 where the volume actually built.

4. The truce proposal. Mediators have a ten-day halt sitting in front of both sides and nobody has answered it. That answer comes on a weekend or an overnight, never at 8:30 in the morning, so crude gaps and everything else follows it.

5. The four reports. Microsoft and Meta Wednesday, Apple and Amazon Thursday, all after the close. Last week the tape punished a company that beat the quarter and then showed its spending, so the line that matters is capex, not EPS.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES lost 7455 Thursday and never got it back. That line, where the week bottomed its value, is what sits overhead, with price under it at 7448 and June’s 7440 POC directly beneath as the shelf holding the whole thing up. Hold 7440 and the repair reads 7470 Friday’s value top, then 7496 Friday’s high, then 7507 where July bottoms its value and 7546 where the week stacked its POC on July’s, with 7558 last week’s floor and 7590 last week’s POC above that. Lose 7440 and 7431 Friday’s low is the first stop, then 7411, the week low July also owns. Under 7411 the record thins out badly and it opens 7364 June’s value floor, with 7292 June’s low the deep one.

NQ:

NQ is the broken one and the map under it is empty. 28446, where the week bottomed its value, is the line overhead, with price well beneath it at 28283.50 after Friday tagged 28212.25. Reclaim 28446 and the repair reads 28465 Friday’s POC, then 28512 June’s low and 28587 Friday’s value top, with 28810 the week’s POC the target where the volume actually sits and 28980 July’s value floor above it. Lose 28327 Friday’s value low and 28212 is the gate, the lowest print of the month. Accept under 28212 and there is nothing built below, just the 28000 round number and air.

CL:

Crude is the one chart with acceptance above its whole weekly value, and it is barely holding it. 89.66, the top of weekly value, is the line, with price just over it at 89.76 and July’s 90.97 ceiling the next lid. Hold 89.66 and the push reads 89.90 June’s high, then 90.56 Friday’s high and 90.97 July’s value top, then 93.50, the top of the whole run, with the 100 round number the extension. Lose 89.66 and 88.40 Friday’s POC catches the first leg, then 87.68 Friday’s low. Under that it slides to 84.38 the week’s POC where the volume built, then 83.04 June’s value ceiling, 80.48 last week’s value top, and 79, the last-week and July POC stack that sits under all of it.

GC:

Gold has done nothing for two weeks and the bracket is wide because of it. 4050, the week’s POC, is the line, with price sitting on top of it at 4056.10 and June’s 4044 value floor right underneath. Hold 4050 and the push reads 4064 last week’s value ceiling, then 4072 Friday’s value top and 4080 July’s POC where the month’s volume sits, with 4101 the week’s ceiling and 4121 July’s above that. Lose 4044 and 4008 where the week bottomed its value is the gate, then 3990 July’s value low and 3986 the week’s bottom. Under those it is 3978 last week’s floor and 3963, the low the last two weeks share, with 3955 June’s low the deep one.

The White Van Stuff

Fresh book off Friday’s close, and it is built wide in equities and stacked long in crude. Both index books have their floors sitting well under price and their caps miles overhead, which is an unpinned setup going into a decision day and two nights of reports. Crude dragged its whole call structure up into 95 and 100 on the run while gold’s book has not moved off the same 4000 to 4100 cage in a week.

ES: ES finished at 7444 with the 7450 shelf right on top of it and the 7500 magnet the first real lid overhead. The 7513 expected high caps the daily envelope, and the 7400 interest and 7375 expected low are what sit underneath before the 7200 floor.

NQ: The tech book has price at 28306 sitting right on the 28300 shelf with 28500 the first lid overhead. The 29250 magnet is a long way up and the 28000 floor is the only real thing underneath, which is the same story the chart is already telling.

CL: Crude’s book is stacked long off the run, the 90 shelf just under price and 92.50 the first lid over it. The 95 and 100 ceilings are where the whole call structure got dragged, with the 79 magnet parked way down at the bottom of the book.

GC: Gold is the most pinned of the four, price at 4055 with the 4045 magnet under it and the 4075 shelf on top. The 4100 cap and the 4000 floor have not budged in a week, so the book has the same cage everybody can already see on the chart.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

The war between the US and Iran went from headline risk to the tape itself, strikes running nightly, a tanker hit at the main export terminal, and the first American troop deaths since March, landing over the weekend. Then tech found its own problem, a weak streaming guide Thursday night and a fresh scare about the AI buildout getting cheaper, and the chip complex took the indexes out at the lows Friday while crude went out at the highs. Gold watched a shooting war, a soft print, and a tech flush, and went down anyway. Sunday’s open inherits all of it.

ES opened the week at 7607 and closed 7498, lower and out the bottom of its own range: the week built its volume up at 7590 and Friday broke away from it, leaving the 7558 value floor overhead. The 7473 low landed almost on top of last week’s 7468.50 print, a double floor two weeks running.

NQ went 29952 to 28773, worst chart of the four, and Friday it traded clean through June’s 28512 low to 28408 before buyers finally showed. The week’s volume sat at 29700, the summer shelf, and price closed nowhere near it.

CL opened at 73.69, gapping over the old range, and never gave any of it back, settling 81.78 after printing 82.76 late Friday. The 71.49 Sunday-night low might as well be a different market; every dip all week got bought inside half a session.

GC opened 4081 and closed 4019, lower again, after tagging the summer floor at 3963 Friday and bouncing. Second straight down week with a war on, and the week’s volume settled dead on the 4000 round number.

Positioning (July 14 data): The index short crowd finally got a week it was dressed for, both boards net short a fourth straight report, and the Nasdaq shorts added right before the flush. The barrel crowd went long as the shooting started and just got paid in full. Gold’s long crowd trimmed a touch and is still the most loaded book on the board, wrong two weeks running now.

Vol: Index protection went out at 16.73, still priced like nothing is happening, while crude’s book is the loudest thing on the screen and the tech book carries a real bid. Cheap index insurance into a week like this is either a gift or a warning.

The Calendar

The first two Mag7 prints of the season land on the same evening, and Intel follows Thursday night with the chip complex already bleeding.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Wednesday night, both of them. Alphabet and Tesla after the close, the first Mag7 looks of the season, landing on a tape that just sold the AI trade for two straight days. The capex line matters more than the earnings line.

2. NQ’s failed breakdown. Friday undercut June’s 28512 low to 28408 and got bought back hard. Hold above 28512 and that look below is a spring under the market; accept back under 28408 and there is no profile left to catch it.

3. ES 7470, three fingerprints on one shelf. This week’s low 7473, last week’s low 7468.50, and the options floor at 7470 all sit on the same price. The most defended shelf on the board either holds a third test or the map opens to June.

4. Crude acceptance above 80.96. The spike settled above the top of its own weekly value, which the last spike never managed. Above 80.96 the stranded spring structure at 88 and 93 is the map; below 77.99 the unwind starts again, same as last time.

5. Gold’s floor at 3963. Third test of the same shelf this summer, and each bounce is getting weaker while the long crowd stays loaded. It holds or the last print on the map is 3955.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

The line is 7532, the value floor last week drew and the one Friday’s flush finally broke. Reclaim it and the repair reads 7552 June’s value ceiling, 7558 where this week’s value bottomed, then 7590, the price July keeps stacking volume on, with 7619 and 7632 the top of the map. Fail to take it back and the double floor gets a third test, 7473 this week’s low sitting on 7468.50 last week’s, the shelf neither week could sell through. Accept below that and June’s map opens up: 7440 the June POC, then 7365 where June’s value bottomed, then 7292, the June low.

NQ:

NQ has one job: take back 28910, the shelf it snapped Friday. Above it the ladder reads 29263 where the week’s value bottomed, stacked nearly on top of June’s 29248 floor, then 29600 July’s POC and 29700, the price this week and June both crowned, with 29989 and 30074 the recovery targets past it. Stay under 28910 and Friday’s look below stays open business, 28512 June’s low first, then 28408, the deepest print of the summer. Accept below 28408 and the profile has nothing left to say.

CL:

Crude’s trigger is 80.96, the ceiling of this week’s value, and it settled the week above it. Hold above and the spike is accepted: 82.76 the week high is the only structure left before the air, then 88.18, the war-era value floor May left behind, and 93.42, the June high, the shelves the spring stranded on the way down. Lose 80.96 and the profile pulls it back inside, 79.60 the week’s volume line first, then 77.99 where the value bottomed. Below that the unwind map is 76.08, the spike high nobody trusted two weeks ago, then 74 July’s POC and 72 where last week did its business.

GC:

Gold settled its week’s volume on 4000 flat and closed just above the number. The upside is a staircase of old floors: 4026 July’s value floor, 4065 this week’s value ceiling, 4080 July’s POC, then 4094, the bottom of last week’s value and the line that says the breakdown repaired, with 4115 and 4129 past it. The downside is one number, 3963, tagged Friday and bought for the third time this summer. Accept below it and 3955, the June low, is the last print on the map, with nothing underneath.

The White Van Stuff

The books finally moved, and they moved in four different directions: the S&P book is standing on its own floor, the tech book got left entirely overhead, crude’s flipped outright bullish chasing the barrels, and gold’s got squeezed into a lid-and-floor vise. What has not moved is the price of index insurance, still cheap while the commodity books scream, and that mismatch is the same one that has been begging to close all month.

ES leans put-heavy and price is standing on the biggest one, the 7470 floor, the exact shelf the last two weekly lows printed on. The magnet got left overhead at 7575 with heavy interest layered 7500 to 7550 between here and there. It sits 7498, right on the floor.

NQ trades under its entire book, and the line that spent last week as the floor at 30000 is now the cap. The interest overhead comes in layers, 28800 and 28900 first, the big cluster at 29000 behind them, then the 29500 magnet. It sits 28773, below all of it.

CL is the one book of the four that flipped bullish outright, calls outweighing puts with the clusters chasing price higher, 82.71 and 84.73 next overhead and the cap at 85.74 behind them. The old magnet at 73.38 got left in another zip code. It settled 81.78, with the densest line below at 80.69.

GC is in a vise: the cap at 4100 and the magnet at 4095 sit stacked as a single lid, the put floor at 4000 is the shelf price keeps straddling, and the put-side lean here is the heaviest of the four books. It sits 4019, between the floor and the 4025 line.

I drink your milkshake.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Tape

ES ran up to 7610 early Monday and leaked the whole thing back, closing 7563 on a 7563.5 POC with value stacked 7553.75 to 7593, a session that gave away its highs. The overnight drifted a tight 7544 to 7575 and sits 7555 now, back under Monday’s POC and pinned to 7547, the shelf June built its volume on. Reclaim 7563.5 the POC and 7575 the overnight high and 7588.5 last week’s POC opens, then 7593 Monday’s upper value. Lose 7544 the overnight low and 7546 the developing value floor, and 7532 is the gate, where last week and July both bottomed their value. It sits 7555, on the June line.

NQ was the ugly one Monday, tagging 29752 and getting sold all day to close 29466 near the low on a 29500 POC. The overnight bought it back, running from 29490 up to 29670 and sitting 29630, pressed right on 29663.75, Monday’s value ceiling. Through that and 29670 the overnight top, 29700 June’s POC is the first real test, then 29752 Monday’s high with 29900 July’s POC above. Lose 29600 the developing POC and 29500 the Monday POC gives, then 29469 the value low and 29393 Monday’s low. It sits 29630, nose against the top of yesterday’s range.

CL went vertical Monday, running from 73.43 to 78.46 and closing 77.66, a trend day that left its 74.7 POC far behind. The overnight kept pushing, gapping to 79.78 and tagging 81.27 before settling to sit 79.76 on top of the whole range, today’s volume building at 80.3 over a 79.55 shelf. Above 80.3 and 81.27 the overnight peak it is thin air, nothing built overhead until June’s spike zone. Below 78.83 the overnight base, 78.46 Monday’s high flips to support, then 77.56 the value high and 74.7 the Monday POC underneath. It sits 79.76, the highest crude has printed in weeks.

GC pushed to 4075.5 Monday and got sold all day, closing 4009.3 near the low on a 4015 POC. The overnight steadied it, holding 4020 to 4040 and sitting 4036.9 back at Monday’s 4033 value, and this is the chart the safe-haven bid is supposed to lift and instead keeps getting sold, a full shelf under last week’s 4111. Through 4039.5 the value high and 4040 the overnight top opens 4066 July’s floor, then 4075.5 Monday’s high. Below 4020 the overnight base, 4015 Monday’s POC gives, then 3996 and 3993 the value base and session low, with air to 3975 June’s low under it. It sits 4036.9, back at Monday’s upper value.

The Calendar

Tuesday, July 14 (all times CT):

- 7:30 CPI, the print the whole tape is frozen for

- 9:00 Fed Chair Warsh testifies on the Hill

- 11:40 Fed’s Barr, then Goolsbee at 12:00, Cook at 12:30, Bowman at 1:55

- 3:30 API crude inventories after the close

CPI at 7:30 and a brand-new Fed Chair on the mic at 9:00 back to back are the whole morning. Everything before the open is just positioning for those two.

The Plan

ES:

ES is pinned to the June shelf at 7547, the price the whole prior month built its volume on, with 7555 the developing session sitting on top of it. Above 7558 today’s POC the first job is 7563.5 Monday’s POC and close, then 7575 the overnight top. Reclaim those and 7588.5 last week’s POC opens, then 7593 Monday’s value high and 7604 last week’s value ceiling, with 7610 Monday’s high the extension. Below 7546 the developing value base and 7544 the overnight low, the tape gives to 7532, where last week and July stack their lows. Lose that and there is air to 7469 last week’s low, then 7451 June’s floor.

NQ:

NQ has repair to do after Monday’s flush, sitting 29630 with the overnight bounce pressing 29663.75, Monday’s value ceiling. Above 29670 the overnight high, 29700 June’s POC is the first real test, then 29752 Monday’s high, with 29900 July’s POC the level that says the flush is done. Hold above 29600 today’s POC and the bounce keeps its base. Below it, 29500 Monday’s POC gives, then 29469 Monday’s value floor and 29393 Monday’s low. Under the low there is 29369 the July shelf, then 29350 where last week and the month built their heaviest volume.

CL:

Crude is the only chart moving and the game is whether it holds the breakout. 79.55 the developing value base over 78.83 the overnight base is the shelf, and above it the run stays alive with 80.3 today’s POC and 81.27 the overnight peak the first targets. Through that peak there is open air, nothing built overhead until June’s spike zone. Below 78.83 and 78.46 Monday’s high, the gap starts to fill toward 77.56 Monday’s value top, then 74.7 Monday’s POC where the volume actually sits. Under that it is 73.44 Monday’s value low, then 72, where last week and July both parked their volume.

GC:

Gold has to prove Monday’s fade was an overreaction. 4033 Monday’s value ceiling is the shelf it is testing this morning, and clearing 4040 the overnight high puts 4066 July’s floor back in reach, then 4075.5 Monday’s high. Above there, 4097 last week’s floor is the proof the down move got repaired. Below 4024 today’s POC and 4020 the overnight low, 4015 Monday’s POC gives, then 3996 Monday’s value base and 3993 the session low. Under the low there is air to 3975 June’s low.

The White Van Stuff

This is a headline tape, not a yields-and-dollar tape, and the positioning is chasing crude while it runs away from everything else. Oil cleared its entire options structure overnight, so its whole cage now sits underneath spot as support, while the equity books stayed tight and quiet into the print. Gold’s protection is stacked above a market that keeps sinking away from it, the one book on the screen pricing fear that price refuses to pay for.

ES: The equity band is tight, priced for a quiet session if the number lets it be one. Price sits under the 7630 same-day cap with the bulk of the interest stacked overhead into the 7700 structural cap, and the 7550 magnet is the shelf right under it. The put floor for the day is 7540 with the expected low at 7496.

NQ: NQ carries the wider book, priced for more than three times the broad index’s move. Price sits between the 29540 magnet under it and the 30000 same-day cap overhead, with a thin ceiling until that round number. The downside interest builds from 29300 down to the 29000 put floor, the expected day running 28986 to 29965.

CL: Crude’s book is the loudest on the board and price already blew through the top of it. The old 78 cap flipped to support underneath, and the whole structure from there down to 72 now sits below spot, so that shelf is the floor. Overhead there is almost nothing until the 81 same-day cap, then the 82 expected high and air to 83.5.

GC: Gold’s structure is stacked above a market falling away from it, and price just nudged over its 4025 same-day cap. The 4066 expected high and the 4095 magnet sit overhead into a wall of interest from 4100 up, and the 4020 pivot is the line the fade keeps pressing. Under it the real interest thins to the 4000 floor, then 3950 and the 3945 expected low.

Trust your prep. See you at the top.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Week That Was

The ceasefire died Tuesday night, three tankers got hit, and the president confirmed it from a podium, and that one headline wrote every chart’s week. Crude put an entire war premium back on in a single overnight and spent the rest of the week handing it back. The indexes flushed hard Wednesday morning and then did the thing nobody was positioned for: bought all of it back, ES finishing on its weekly high and NQ over the round number. Gold got sold into a shooting week because expensive barrels feed the same rate math that has been squatting on this tape all summer, and with the ten-year camped near 4.6 the metal could not keep a bid. The chip tape got sold out of Asia early, ended the week carrying the index anyway, and the biggest foreign listing ever hit the Nasdaq Friday to a bid. One headline, four charts, and only one of them is still trading it.

ES opened the week at 7565 and closed 7621, higher on the week and out the top after touring the whole map in between: through 7594 Monday, back under it Tuesday, flushed to 7469 Wednesday, back through it Friday. The week’s volume settled at 7588, right under the line it kept fighting over.

NQ went 29836 to 30037 on the week, its first Friday close above 30000, by way of a 29034 flush that broke everything first. The volume never followed the recovery up; the week built its base at 29350 and left it behind.

CL opened 68.28 pinned to the floor it spent two weeks dying on, ran to 76.08 by Wednesday, and closed 71.57 after three straight sessions of selling, to the tick on 71.60, the top of the old range. The streak of lower weeks is over; what replaced it is a spike nobody trusted past lunch.

GC opened 4168 and closed 4117, lower on the week, rejected at 4192 for the second week in a row. It flushed to 4032 midweek, clawed back to the 4111 week POC by Friday, and that double lid overhead now runs the chart.

Cross-asset read: The headline that was supposed to sink equities got them a Friday close at the top of the range, and the only chart still trading the conflict is crude, which cannot hold its own rallies for more than a session. Gold falling on a week like this with yields up tells you what the market is actually afraid of: the rate math, not the missiles.

Positioning (July 7 data): The trader crowd is still net short both the S&P and the Nasdaq, third report running, and it spent another week as bounce fuel while the tape ground higher. The barrel crowd flipped back to the long side right as the shooting started, the right side for about one session before the spike got sold. Gold’s long crowd never left and is still loaded, which cuts both ways at a two-week lid.

Vol: The VIX sat at 16 through all of it, so protection on the index side still costs next to nothing. Crude’s book never got the memo, and gold’s is jumpier than the metal’s chart looks.

The Calendar

EARNINGS SEASON IS SO FUCKING BACK.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Tuesday morning, all of it. The June print at 7:30 CT, five banks before the bell, the chair testifying at 9:00. The rate path, earnings season, and the whole recovery reprice in one session.

2. NQ 30000. First close above it in five tries, with the volume base left behind at 29350. Acceptance opens 30250, the price last week anchored on; another rejection and 29700, the summer shelf, is back in play.

3. ES 7594, round three. Monday’s breakout failed, Friday’s gets the retest. If it holds there is only 7647 and 7694 left overhead from this year’s structure.

4. Crude at 71.60. The spike round-tripped to the exact top of the old range. Above it the new range builds from the 72 shelf; below it the rest of the premium unwinds toward 70.

5. Gold’s cage. Two weeks, two rejections at 4192, while the floor stack holds underneath: the floor of this week’s value at 4097 with the options crowd’s magnet sitting on the same shelf at 4095.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

The whole week distilled to one line: 7594, last week’s high with July’s value ceiling built on the same price. ES broke it Monday, lost it Tuesday, flushed to 7469 Wednesday, and took it back Friday with value following, closing 7621 with the week’s volume parked at 7588 right under the line. Hold 7594 and the breakout is working: 7627 the week high first, then 7647 June’s value ceiling, and past that 7694, the June high, the only structure left overhead. Lose 7594 and the fight resumes: 7588 the week POC goes first, 7556 last week’s POC under it, then 7532, where the week’s value bottoms, the gate that says the breakout failed twice. Below that it is 7497, last week’s floor of value, and 7469 the flush low, then 7451 June’s value floor with air underneath to 7307, the June low.

NQ:

NQ finally closed over 30000 at 30037, first time in five sessions of knocking, but the week’s volume never followed it up: the base built at 29350 during the flush and price left it behind. Acceptance above 30000 targets 30094 the week high, then 30250, last week’s POC and the first price overhead with a real argument in it, then 30356 the July high and 30438 last week’s value ceiling. Through 30600, where last week topped, there is nothing but air to 31100, the June record. If 30000 fails again, 29900 the July POC catches first, then 29700 June’s POC, the shelf the sellers camped on all summer. Under that it is 29620 where last week’s value bottomed, 29350 the week’s volume base, and 29034 the double bottom, with 28506 under everything.

CL:

Crude did the whole war trade in one week: glued to 68 Monday, gapped through everything to 76.08 by Wednesday, then sold for three straight sessions to close 71.57, sitting to the tick on 71.60, last week’s high. That line is the edge between the new picture and the old one. Hold above 71.60 and the range builds: 72.00 the week POC is the first fight, 73.56 the week’s value ceiling next, and 76.08 the spike high is the cap until a fresh headline says otherwise, with 78.81 June’s value ceiling past it. Lose 71.60 and the unwind is on: 70.14 last week’s value ceiling, then 70.00 where June parked its volume on the round number. Under 70 it is 68.30 last week’s POC and 68.06 where this week bottomed, then 67.43 with nothing under it until 65.

GC:

Gold’s week was a rejection at 4192, the same price that capped it last week, and that double lid now runs the chart. It flushed to 4032 midweek when the rate math took over, then spent Thursday and Friday climbing back to close 4117 on the 4111 week POC. Reclaim 4125, the top of last week’s value, and the lid gets its third test: 4163 July’s value ceiling, 4182 the week’s, then 4192 itself, with thin trade above it all the way to 4365, the June POC. Lose 4097, the bottom of the week’s value, and 4082, July’s floor, is the gate. Under that the stack at 4042, June’s value floor sitting on last week’s POC, is the real decision, then 4022 and 3976.

The White Van Stuff

ES has a book that chased the breakout: the heavy interest that sat below price all month is now stacked overhead from 7625 to 7690, with the cap at 7700 right behind it. The magnet got left at 7545 and the put floor is all the way down at 7500. It closed 7621, trading into the stack.

NQ has the biggest single line in its book at 30000, and Friday was the first close on top of it. Above, the interest clusters 30100 to 30300 and then thins out fast to the 31000 cap; below, the magnet waits at 29770 and the put floor at 29000. It closed 30037, a hair over the line.

CL never calmed down and still owns the loudest book on the board, the densest interest packed 71 to 73 right where price sits. The cap at 76 is where the spike died, and the floor is 70. It closed 71.57, under the 72.25 magnet.

GC carries the heaviest put lean of the four books, and the floor side is a staircase: the 4095 magnet, then interest every few dollars down to the 4000 put floor. Overhead the band from 4165 to 4195 sits under the 4300 cap. It closed 4117, leaning on the 4115 shelf.

Enjoy your weekend. See you Tonight for SundayTicks Live on everything 8pm CT.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Week That Was

The whole week turned on one number. Payrolls landed at 57k, soft enough to put the tightening talk on ice, and the indexes that got sold all last week ripped right back while the Dow closed the half at a record. The money leaving the chips kept landing on gold, and crude spent the week scraping its lowest prices since winter as barrels keep coming back.

ES opened the week at 7398 and closed 7557, with Thursday’s 7593.75 high sitting right under last week’s 7599 print. Two weekly highs on top of each other is the wall the new quarter opens against.

NQ opened 29282, ran to 30600 by Tuesday, and the chip selling dragged it to 29328 Thursday before the half-day bought it back to 29901. Higher on the week, ugliest chart of the four getting there.

CL bled to 67.04 Thursday, its lowest trade since February, and finished 68.78. Fourth week lower in a row, and every bounce died at the same line just over 69.

GC flushed to 3962 on Tuesday, a fresh 2026 low by less than a point, then went one direction into a 4187 close. Two weekly lows at the same price in two weeks, both bought.

Cross-asset read: Indexes took the soft print as relief, gold took it as fuel, and crude ignored it completely because its problem is supply, not the rate path. Rotation, not distribution, until the floors start breaking.

Positioning (June 23 data): The holiday pushed the updated report, so this is the same picture as last week, and it played out exactly like bounce fuel does. The short crowd got squeezed out, not converted.

Vol: The VIX closed at 16 and change, books everywhere are priced for a quiet summer, and thin tapes cut both ways.

The Calendar

The minutes are the only thing on here that can really move it, the first look inside the new chair’s first meeting. No Mag7 this week, the banks kick off earnings season the week after.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. FOMC minutes Wednesday 1:00 PM CT. The tape spent four sessions deciding the hawkish turn was overdone. If the minutes read like the committee meant it, the whole rip is offside.

2. ES 7594 and 7599. Two weekly highs stacked overhead. Acceptance above opens 7632, the June high, with nothing traded higher this year.

3. NQ 30000. Holding above it points the bounce back at 30600 where Tuesday died. Losing 29328, Thursday’s flush low, says the chip selling is not done.

4. Gold through 4216. The double floor at 3962 is in and the week closed at the highs. Through 4216, last week’s high, the air gets thin for a long way up.

5. Crude at 67.04. Lowest trade since February with no recent volume underneath. Either the low keeps holding, or it breaks and price discovery does the rest.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

The new quarter opens at 7557 staring at the paired highs at 7594 and 7599, and that is the whole decision. Through 7599 it’s 7632, the June high, and past that nothing on the chart from this year. Hold 7524, Friday’s low, and dips stay entries; lose it and 7480 then 7398 decide whether the rip was real, with 7357 and 7232 waiting below.

NQ:

NQ closed 29901, right in the middle of the week’s fight at 30000. Above it, 30320 then 30600 where Tuesday’s run died, and through there 30968 is the top of the entire structure. Lose 29522 then 29328, the gate, and under that it’s 29160 with air to 28228, the June low.

CL:

Crude closed 68.78 under the 69.25 line it failed at all week. Reclaim it and 70.19, 70.75 and 71.60 are the bounce steps, with nothing above until the stranded structure at 78.96. Lose 68.08 and 67.04 is the gate, the lowest trade since February; below 67 it’s discovery toward the 65 round.

GC:

Gold closed 4187 with only 4208 and 4216, last week’s high, between it and a new recovery leg. Through 4216 the trade is thin all the way toward 4541, the June high. Hold 4134, Friday’s floor, and the V keeps its shape; lose it and 4062 then 4022 come first, with 3962, the double floor, underneath.

The White Van Stuff

The books came out of the holiday pinned: ES inside its densest interest shelf under the cap, NQ sitting on its magnet, crude’s flush caught by its floor, gold pressing its upper band. Nobody is paying up for protection anywhere, which is exactly how quiet weeks stop being quiet.

ES sits at 7557 inside the heavy interest from 7530 to 7580, the 7600 cap directly overhead, the 7510 magnet the landing spot below, and the put floor a long way down at 7400.

NQ closed parked on its 29810 magnet with the put side crowded, interest packed from 29300 down to the 29000 floor. First wall overhead is 30000, the cap a long climb away at 31000.

CL owns the loudest book on the board, compressed into the 66 to 72 window. Thursday’s flush ran straight into the 67 put floor and held, with the magnet at 70 and the cap at 76 on top of everything.

GC ran its reversal straight into the upper interest band, 4192 and 4212 pressing with the 4286 cap on top of them. The floor at 3987 is where the book drew its line, and the 3962 flush poked under it and snapped right back.

Still on vacay so will ease back in this week. The screen will be there tomorrow. Cheers.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

Tech bleeding and gold bidding on the same tape is the tell of the week. Crude was off in its own funeral, third week lower with the war premium fully gone, answering to supply instead of the rate path. Four sessions of selling in the indexes, one violent reversal in gold, and all of it walks into a jobs report that got pulled forward into a holiday-shortened week.

ES opened the week at 7573 and closed Friday at 7380, lower on the week and out the bottom of its own value. The week POC built up at 7444 with the 7408 value floor sitting above the close, the first weekly close back under value since the recovery rolled over. Sellers leaned on every bounce the entire back half.

NQ took it the hardest. It opened 30822, tagged 30968 early, then the chip worry took the wheel and it bled to a 29182 low and a 29312 close, the 29700 week POC a ceiling now. The chip-led group that carried the tape all spring is the one dragging it lower.

CL kept doing what it has done for a month. It opened the week near 74, lost the 73 shelf by midweek, and closed 69.51 sitting on the 68.55 week low, the whole pre-crash structure stranded up near 80 and the spring’s value a different planet entirely. The barrels-are-coming-back trade has pulled price clean out of three months of value.

GC was the comeback story. It opened 4225, flushed to a fresh 2026 low at 3975, then reversed hard and closed 4086 back above the 4030 week POC. The metal that bled all spring is suddenly catching every dollar that runs out of tech, and it did it with the ten-year still going the wrong way for it.

Cross-asset read: One hawkish reset, two opposite trades. The indexes sold the rate scare and the growth worry on the same tape, while the rotation out of tech handed gold the bid it could not buy for itself all spring. The metal is up with yields up, which is not supposed to happen, and that divergence is the cleanest read on the board. Crude answers to supply and the talks, not the rate path, so it is in its own world at the lows.

Positioning (June 23 data): The trader crowd walked in leaning short both the S&P and the Nasdaq, which is exactly the bounce fuel that keeps getting lit every time the tape has to cover into strength. The barrel crowd finally flipped to the short side after riding the premium down all spring.

Vol: Equity protection stayed cheap on the S&P while the Nasdaq’s book is the jumpy one of the two, and crude still carries the fattest, loudest book on the screen. A tape priced for calm walking into Thursday’s number on a half day is the part that bites.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Payrolls Thursday 7:30 AM CT. The override on every chart, and it lands on a half day before a long weekend. The first read since the projections flipped to a hike, dropping into a thin tape that shuts at noon. Hot confirms the dots, soft fights them, and either way the close carries gap risk into Monday.

2. NQ getting carried out. It closed 29312 under the 29700 wall where the week and the month both stacked their POC. While it is under that line the path points down at the 28506 June low, and the chip group that broke it is the one that has to fix it.

3. Gold’s reversal. It printed a fresh 2026 low at 3975 and turned on a dime, closing back above the 4030 week POC. The bid is the money leaving the semis, not the rate path, so the question is whether it holds 4030 or fades back into the flush.

4. Crude in a vacuum. Third week lower and pressing the 68.55 week and month low with no recent volume underneath. The whole pre-crash shelf is stranded near 80 and 91, so bounces are headline trades and the breakdown is the structure.

5. ES back under value. Friday closed under the 7408 value floor for the first time since the recovery topped. Reclaim 7408 and the dip stays a bounce, lose 7360 and the week turns heavy toward the 7307 June low where the month built its volume on June’s flush.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES closed the week at 7380, under the 7408 floor of its value, so the first job is reclaiming 7408 to get back inside the range. Above 7408 the 7444 week and month POC is next, then 7475 week VAH, and above there the 7558 last week’s value floor is the line that says the dip-buyers actually showed up. Through 7558 the 7613 last week’s POC is the wall where all the recovery volume now sits as supply, with 7649 last week’s high and the 7693 June high overhead. Hold 7360 and the dip stays a bounce. Lose 7360 the week low and 7355 the June VAL goes with it, then there is air down to 7307, the June low.

NQ:

NQ closed 29312, under the 29392 week value floor, the weakest of the four and the one the AI worry is carrying out. The line that matters is the 29700 stack where the week and the month both parked their POC, so reclaiming 29392 gets it back into value and 29700 is the wall it has to take to call this anything but a bounce. Above 29700 the 29890 week VAH opens, then air to the 30353 last week’s value floor and 30450 last week’s POC, with 30915 last week’s high overhead. Lose 29229 the June VAL and 29182 the week low is the gate, and losing that opens the vacuum straight to 28506.

CL:

Crude closed 69.51 sitting on the 68.55 week and month low, having fallen clean out of its own value with the 70 week POC the only nearby line overhead. A bounce has to first reclaim 73.06 the week VAH and 73.20 the month POC, and from there it is a long climb to the stranded volume at 75.85 last week’s POC, 77.55 last week’s VAH, and 80.04 the June VAH. Those are headline-only targets now. Lose 68.55 and there is no recent profile underneath, just price discovery into the 67 round and the 65 floor.

GC:

Gold reversed off the 3975 low and closed 4086, back above the 4030 week POC and pressing the 4106 week value high that lids the bounce. Reclaim 4106 and 4160 last week’s low is the first step, then 4231 last week’s value floor gets it back inside last week’s range, with 4250 last week’s POC and 4365 the June POC the next shelves up. Above there 4403 the June VAH and 4532 the May POC are the wall where the long crowd kept trimming all spring. Lose 4030 and 4049 the June VAL goes, then 3981 the week VAL, then back to 3975.

The White Van Stuff

ES has the calmest book of the four, the option crowd leaning slightly short with cheap protection and price pinned right on the 7400 put floor it has been defending. The magnet sits overhead at 7490 and the cap is a long way up at 7800, so the whole fight is in the dense interest shelf between the floor and the magnet.

NQ carries the heaviest put-side book of the four and it is sitting in the bottom third of its expected week, leaning on the 29000 floor with the magnet pinned just overhead at 29900. The cap is a long way up at 31000 with thin interest the whole way there, which is what a contract getting carried out looks like on the book.

CL owns the fattest, loudest book on the board and the vol on it never came in. The magnet is stranded up at 79 in a different era of the contract, the cap a relic at 90, and down at price the only thing that matters is the heavy interest stacked from 66 to 72 and the real floor a long way under at 65.

GC spent the week climbing back into its own book, price now pressing the upper interest after reversing off the low with the long crowd leaning hard into every bounce. The cap is up at 4300, the magnet sits overhead at 4195, and the put floor down at 4000 is the line the reversal cannot afford to lose.

Life moves pretty fast. Go blow up some shit with m80s and grill some burgers and hotdogs.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Week That Was

ES spent the front half clawing back toward the highs and tagged 7649 Tuesday, a hair under the 7693 June high, before the projections knocked it back into value. It closed 7564 sitting on the 7558 floor of the week’s value with the 7613 POC built right overhead. First close back under that POC since the recovery started.

NQ took the rate hit hardest and recovered it fastest. It slid to 29923 on the projections, then the semi headline carried it back through the whole drop to close 30693, leaning on the upper third of the week’s value above the 30450 POC. Strongest of the four and the only one that closed within striking distance of its 31100 record.

CL kept doing what it has done for a month. It opened the week near 80, lost the 73.58 low by Thursday, and closed 76.91 with the entire pre-crash shelf stranded up at 84 and 91. The supply-is-coming-back trade has pulled price clean out of three months of value.

GC was the wreck of the group. It ranged 4220 to 4403 and closed 4236 near the low, then the thin holiday tape leaked it under the 4220 week low toward 4180. Every bit of structure now sits overhead, and the metal is trading straight inverse to the ten-year with nothing under it to lean on.

Cross-asset read: One central bank and one corporate headline split the board clean in two. The projections should have sunk everything, and for an afternoon they did, but the tie-up handed equities a reason to climb back while the metal had no such lifeline and ate the rate move whole. Crude is off in its own world, answering to supply and the talks, not to the rate path. The indexes are a chip story, gold is a rates story, and oil is a peace story, all printing on the same tape.

Vol: The fear gauge slid back under 18 as the protection bought for the meeting got dumped into the semi rally, so equity vol is cheap again right into a PCE Thursday. Gold and crude vol never came in, and the metal’s book is built to push the next leg down, not catch it.

The Calendar

Micron after the bell Wednesday is the lone single-stock print with real macro in it, a direct read on whether the bid that saved the week has earnings to back it up. Everything else bends to Thursday morning.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. PCE Thursday 7:30 AM CT. The override on every chart. The first inflation read since the projections flipped to a hike, stacked with GDP and durable goods the same morning. Hot confirms the dots, soft fights them.

2. NQ holds the chip bid. It closed 30693 back above the 30450 week POC on the strength of the semi headline and never looked back. While it holds that line the path points at the 31100 record. Micron after Wednesday’s close is the test of whether the bid has earnings under it.

3. ES at the floor of value. The recovery ran into the 7613 week POC and stalled, closing 7564 on the 7558 value floor. Above 7613 the highs come back into view, under 7558 the week turns heavy toward the 7472 low.

4. Crude in a vacuum. It fell clean out of three months of value and there is no recent volume under the 73.58 low. The whole pre-crash shelf is stranded at 84 and 91, so bounces are headline trades and the breakdown is the structure.

5. Gold has nothing overhead but supply. Every level above price is a seller now. It is pressing the 4220 week low with the 4072 flush low the last real shelf underneath, and it answers to the ten-year harder than anything else on the board.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES closed the week on the 7558 floor of its value with the 7613 POC sitting right on top, so the first job is reclaiming 7613 to get back in control. Above 7613 the 7636 week and month ceiling is next, then 7649 the week high and 7693 the June high where the whole run topped out. Hold 7558 and the dip stays a bounce. Lose 7558 and 7546 the June value floor goes, then 7499 last week’s POC and 7472 where the week put in its low. Below 7472 there is air down to 7420 last week’s value floor, and under that the slide runs to 7307 where June built its volume on the jobs flush, the line the whole month is stacked on.

NQ:

NQ closed 30693 in the upper third of its value, holding above the 30450 POC the semis reclaimed, the strongest chart of the four. Above 30766 the week ceiling and 30834 June’s, the 30915 week high is the gate, and taking it opens clean air to the 31100 record. Hold 30450 and dips stay buyable. Lose 30450 and 30353 the week value floor goes, then 30139 last week’s high and 29923 the week low catch the first legs down. Below 29923 the vacuum opens to 29524 last week’s volume shelf, then 28506 where last week and June share their low, the deep base the whole rally is built over.

CL:

Crude closed 76.91 having fallen clean out of its own value, the 76 week POC the only nearby line and the whole pre-crash shelf stranded overhead. A bounce has to first reclaim 80.16 the week ceiling, and from there it is a long climb to the stranded volume at 84 last week’s low, 86.66, June’s value floor, and 91.30 where the month and last week both built their base. Those are headline-only targets now. Lose 73.58 the shared week and June low and there is no recent profile underneath, just price discovery into the low 70s and the 70 round where the next real volume sits.

GC:

Gold closed 4236 near its low and the holiday tape leaked it under the 4220 week low toward 4180, so it walks in below everything. The first job is reclaiming 4231 the week value floor and the 4250 POC just to get back inside the range. Above that 4284 last week’s value high and 4364 the week ceiling are the next steps, with 4403 the week high and 4532 the May POC the wall where the long crowd keeps selling. Lose 4180 and 4112 June’s value floor is the catch, then 4072 where last week and June share the flush low. Below 4072 it is fresh discovery with no volume to lean on.

The White Van Stuff

The reset to the hike side cut two ways across the books. The index surfaces stayed calm and balanced through the whole round trip, the protection cheap again and the pin back on stocks, while the metal’s book is loaded for downside and built to push the next leg, not catch it. Crude still owns the loudest, widest book on the board, its magnet stranded in a different era of the contract from where price actually trades.

ES has the calmest book of the four, the option crowd leaning slightly long again with cheap protection and price parked right on the 7545 magnet. The cap is a long way up at 7700 and the floor sits down at 7400, so the whole fight is in the dense interest shelf between the magnet and the cap.

NQ carries the heaviest call-side book of the four and it still ran to the top of its expected week, which is its own kind of risk if Thursday surprises hawkish. The magnet sits at 30490 just under price and the real cap is a different planet up at 32000.

CL owns the loudest, widest book on the screen and the vol on it never came down. The magnet is stranded way up at 83.60 in a different era of the contract, the cap a relic at 101, and down at price the only thing that matters is the heavy interest stacked from 73 up to 81 and the real floor a long way under at 70.72.

GC spent the holiday session falling out the bottom of its own book, price now under the expected low with every option line of consequence sitting overhead. The magnet at 4340 caps every bounce, the heavy interest stacks 4250 to 4400, and the put crowd is leaning hard with the only real floor a long way down at 4000.

Never think you’re smarter than a dumb market. It will get dumber for sure. Cheers Friends.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

ES spent the week clawing back the prior week’s losses, dipped to 7247 early, then built its value back up at 7415 and closed at 7433. The week POC stacks right on the 7420 May POC, which is the shelf the dip-buyers chose to defend. First close back in striking distance of the value it lost, but the bounce stalled the second it hit the old floor.

NQ was the V. It dipped to 28227 early, then climbed back through all of the prior week’s damage and closed 29677, above the 29476 week VAH and a stone’s throw from the 29848 week high. It is the strongest of the four, the one the buyers chased hardest. The short crowd that pressed the lows got run over the whole way up.

CL was the holdout that finally cracked. It ran the early week near 92, then unwound the entire back half on the agreement headline and closed 84.30, sitting on the 84.13 week low with the whole week’s volume stranded up at 91.30. The war premium that held it up for three months is coming out a barrel at a time.

GC flushed to a fresh low at 4072 then clawed back to close 4231, holding above the 4175 week POC. The freefall paused, but the metal is still under every bit of May’s value and trading straight inverse to the ten-year. It is a rates bet now, nothing more, and it is waiting on Wednesday like everyone else.

Cross-asset read: One story did all of it, and it pointed the opposite way from last week. Soft inflation and a draft to bring the barrels back flipped the same dominoes in reverse, stocks ripped and the safe-haven bid kept bleeding out of gold because rising rates are the one thing it cannot fight. Crude got monetized as the supply-is-coming-back trade while the indices got bought as the war-risk-is-leaving trade. The equities recovered on rates, the metal sold on rates, and the only one in true free-fall is the contract with a signature pointed at its throat.

Positioning (data through midweek): Read the latest print as the book going into the bounce, not after it. The trader crowd fought the entire melt-up from the short side and was still leaning that way into the flush, and this V is exactly what a stranded short book does when it has to cover into strength. The fuel that drove the rip is mostly spent now, but a book that is still short is two-sided ammunition into Wednesday either way.

Vol: The fear gauge is back near the lows. The downside protection that paid on the way down got sold into the recovery, so it is cheap again right at the highs going into a new chair’s first meeting. Crude vol never came down and gold vol is set to expand the move, not dampen it. A market positioned for calm right into the one event that can break it is the part that bites. Size for a two-sided Wednesday.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. FOMC Wednesday 1:00 PM CT. A brand new chair’s first meeting and the override on every chart. No move is the base case, so the projections and the press conference are the whole event. Mark your levels cold and do not try to predict the man.

2. NQ round-tripped the flush. It closed back above the 29476 week VAH and never looked back. While it holds that line the path points at the 29848 week high and the broken value overhead. Lose 29240 and the V starts to look like a lower high instead.

3. ES stalled at value. The bounce ran straight into the 7415 week POC stacked on the May POC and stopped cold. Above 7470 the recovery has room toward the broken 7524 value. Under 7385 the week gets heavy in a hurry.

4. Crude is in free-fall on the agreement. It closed on the 84.13 week low with the whole week’s volume stranded overhead and nothing recent underneath. A signed deal gaps it lower on the open. The only thing that reverses it fast is the talks falling apart.

5. Gold is a pure rates bet. It bounced off the 4072 flush low but everything from May is overhead supply. Wednesday moves it as hard as it moves the indices. 4175 holds the bounce, 4284 gets it back into the broken range.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES dug out of the hole all week and ran the bounce straight into the 7415 week POC, where the May POC sits on the same tick, and stalled. Reclaim 7443 Friday VAH and 7470 week VAH and the recovery has room to the 7491 week high, then the broken 7524 prior week value, with the 7624 prior week POC the wall where the whole melt-up’s volume now sits as supply. Lose 7385 June VAL and the week turns heavy again, with 7366 the Friday low and 7338 May VAL the first real shelf under it. Below 7338 the air opens to 7326 week VAL, then 7247 week low, and 7199 May low is where the month actually built its volume.

NQ:

NQ acted like nothing happened. It reclaimed the 29476 week VAH on the way back up and closed leaning on the 29760 Friday high. Hold 29476 and the 29848 week high is the gate, and taking it opens the 29948 prior week VAL and the long climb back to the 30590 prior week POC, the floor that broke and is a ceiling now. Lose 29240 May POC and the bounce loses its footing, with 28974 the prior week low, then 28600 week POC where this week built its base. Below 28600 the 28465 week VAL and 28337 May VAL stack close, and losing them reopens the vacuum to the 27614 May low. There is almost nothing between the week base and the May value.

CL:

Crude closed the week dead on the 84.13 low with the entire week’s volume stranded up at the 91.30 POC, which means price fell clean out of its own value and never looked back. The reclaim that matters first is 86.35, the May low that held all last month and is overhead resistance now, then 87.38 week VAL gets it back into the week’s range. Above that the 90.86 prior week VAL and the 91.30 week POC are the distant overhead and the bounce is pure headline. Lose 84.13 and there is no recent volume to lean on, it is price discovery down to the spring’s old value at 82.58 April VAL, and below there the 77.21 April low is the only structure left.

GC:

Gold bounced off the 4072 flush low and is hanging just above the 4175 week POC, the line that defines whether the bounce has legs. Reclaim 4256 Friday high and 4284 week VAH and the next step is 4338, the prior week low that is resistance now, then 4439 prior week VAL into the 4500 prior week POC and 4532 May POC, where the long crowd keeps trimming every rally. Lose 4175 and the 4073 week low and flush low come right back, and below there it is fresh price discovery with no volume to catch it.

The White Van Stuff

The book flipped back this week. The crowd that loaded downside protection on the selloff dumped it into the rally, so the pin is back on stocks and the amplifier got switched off on the indices. It stayed on for crude, where the book is still loaded for downside and every leg lower greases the next.

ES is back inside the long-side pin it gave back on the flush, with the book leaning slightly to the call side and protection cheap again. The cap is up at 7550, the magnet sits below at 7360, and price is parked in the dense heavy-interest shelf between them. That is a setup that wants to grind sideways, right up until Wednesday’s print blows the pin apart.

NQ already cleared the structural call line it lost on the flush, so the overhead that matters now is the old value shelf up at 30200 to 30500 and the expected high near 30112. The magnet still sits way down at 28950, which tells you how far value ran from price on the V. It is the most call-heavy book of the four, and that is its own kind of risk into a hawkish surprise.

Crude is still trading with the amplifier on, the book loaded for downside and the vol fattest on the board. It lost the 85 floor and there is nothing but heavy-interest air down to the 82 expected low. The 91 magnet is a different zip code now, which is exactly what a contract in free-fall looks like on the book. Do not trust a single poke through either edge with vol this fat.

Gold is pinned under a stack of heavy interest from 4250 up to 4300, with the magnet at 4345 capping every bounce. The book is still tilted to the put side and the long crowd keeps feeding rallies into that 4345 line. The floor is a long way down at 4000, so the whole fight is in this tight band at the lows.

The protection is cheap again, the book is long again, and the calendar has a brand new chair running his first meeting on Wednesday. There is a line from Rounders that fits the week. If you can’t spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker. Mark your levels and know which side of the table you SHOULD be sitting on. Personally? My vibes going into this week are as follows:

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

ES ran to a fresh 7632 record by Tuesday and camped up there for four days, then Friday opened 7547 and bled the whole session to 7379, closing 7400. The week POC built up at 7624 with value down to 7524, and Friday is the first close below that entire value area in the entire run. The melt-up had its tenth week lined up and never got it off the ground.

NQ did it with more violence in both directions. It tagged 30807 Wednesday, the highest print in its history, then Friday opened 30035 and never looked up, trading to 28974 and closing 29016. The 30590 week POC is a ceiling now, the round 30000 it defended for two straight weeks broke on the open, and the whole week’s value got left overhead.

CL was the lone holdout and it still closed soft. It ran to 96.58 midweek on the Strait headline, then faded the back half and closed 90.24, a tick under the 90.86 week VAL. Up on the week, under its own value, and entirely hostage to the next overnight statement out of the talks.

GC got taken apart. It opened the week at 4533 and went one direction, losing 4409 prior-week support and printing 4338 Friday, the weakest gold has looked all year, closing 4343 with the week POC at 4500 now well overhead. Higher-for-longer is kryptonite for the metal and the long crowd keeps trimming into every bounce.

Cross-asset read: One number did all of it. Jobs ran hot, yields jumped, and every trade that depended on a friendly Fed reversed on the same candle. The chip complex led the unwind, gold lost its safe-haven bid because rising yields are the one thing it cannot fight, and crude was the only one left standing because it answers to the Strait, not the ten-year. The melt-up and the safe haven died on the same print. That is the tell.

Positioning (June 2 data): This print is from Tuesday, so read it as the book going into the drop, not after it. The trader crowd was already leaning short both indices, net short the S&P by a wide margin and net short the NASDAQ by less, and for nine weeks that was the losing side that kept getting carried out. Friday it finally paid. The catch into next week is that shorts already on the board are fuel for a bounce the second they decide to cover.

Vol: The fear gauge went from under 16 to 21.51 in a single session and the cheap protection that defined the melt-up is gone. Equity books are bid for downside now, crude and gold vol never came down, and nothing about this tape is sleepy anymore. Size for two-sided overnights and gap risk on every print.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. CPI Wednesday 7:30 CT. The override on everything. A hot number confirms the rate scare and the indices keep bleeding. A soft one and the dip-buyers get their excuse back. Mark your levels cold before it prints. Do not try to predict it.

2. NQ 30000 is a ceiling now. The round number it defended for two weeks broke on Friday’s open and the whole week’s value sits overhead. As long as price is under it the path of least resistance points down toward the May value. The first reclaim that means anything is 29828.

3. ES below the week’s value. Friday closed under 7524 for the first time in the run. While price is under it, the 7624 week POC is supply, not support, and the May POC at 7420 is the line Friday died on. The reclaim of 7524 is what says the dip-buyers showed up.

4. Gold at 2026 lows. It lost last week’s entire range and there is no volume underneath 4338. The metal trades straight inverse to yields now, so it is a live read on whether the rate scare sticks. 4409 for a reclaim, 4338 for the break.

5. Crude’s lonely bid. It is the only thing that held, and it held on the headline, not the tape. The week VAL at 90.86 is the line. Above it crude keeps its premium, below 88.68 the war bid is unwinding with everything else.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES spent the whole week above 7524 and lost it Friday for the first time in the run, closing 7400 right on the May POC at 7420. Reclaim 7524 week VAL and the drop was a flush, with 7595 prior week POC and the 7624 week POC the targets overhead, though that week POC is a wall of supply now, not a level to chase. Hold under 7420 and the week stays heavy, with 7379 the week low and 7338 May VAL the first real shelf below it. Lose 7338 and the air opens to the 7199 May low where the month actually built its volume. Wednesday’s number is the button on all of it. Do not be a hero below 7338 into a hot print.

NQ:

NQ is the one that broke the cleanest. It defended 30000 for two weeks and lost it on Friday’s open, closing 29016 under the 29240 May POC. Get back above 29240 and the bounce targets 29828 prior week VAL and the 29948 week VAL, with the 30590 week POC a ceiling a long way up. Stay below 29240 and the 28974 week low is the gate, and losing it opens the vacuum to 28337 May VAL with the 27614 May low underneath that. There is almost no volume between the week low and the May value, which is exactly why this one travels in a straight line when it goes. Wednesday decides whether the air below gets filled this week.

CL:

Crude is the only one that closed green on the week and it still finished under its own value. It closed 90.24, a hair below the 90.86 week VAL, after rejecting 96.58 midweek. Reclaim 90.86 and the 93 week POC and 93.90 prior week POC are the overhead, with 96.58 the week high above that. Lose the 88.68 prior week VAL and the 86.35 floor that held all of last month is the target, and below there it is price discovery. The whole contract still hangs on the headline, so the bounce setups are headline-dependent and the breakdown is structural. Size for the gap on every overnight.

GC:

Gold is in free fall and sitting on the 2026 low at 4338. It lost last week’s entire range, the 4409 prior week low is overhead now, and 4343 is where it closed with nothing but air underneath. A reclaim of 4409 gets it back into last week’s range and 4439 week VAL is the next step, with the 4500 week POC and 4532 May POC the real supply where the long crowd keeps trimming. Below 4338 there is no recent volume to lean on, it is fresh lows and price discovery from there. The metal is a pure rates trade now, so Wednesday’s print moves it as hard as it moves the indices. No knife-catching this week.

The White Van Stuff

The book flipped this week. For two months the options crowd was positioned for nothing to go wrong and that positioning pinned every dip. After Friday it is the other way around. The protection that was dirt cheap a week ago got bid in a hurry, the fear gauge closed at 21.51 after sitting under 16, and the equity books are now built so the next push gets chased instead of faded. Three of the four are sitting on or under their floors with the amplifier switched on.

ES closed Friday dead on the 7400 floor with the book loaded better than three to one in downside protection. Lose 7400 with the amplifier on and there is nothing structural until the 7322 expected low and the cluster right under it. The cap is all the way up at 7600 where the whole melt-up’s call selling still sits, and the magnet at 7545 is overhead now instead of a pin.

NQ is the violent one. It lost the floor that held it for two weeks and that old support at 29400 is overhead resistance now. The magnet sits way up at 30175, which tells you exactly how far value ran from price, and the expected band is the widest of the four in both directions. This is the contract that moves first and asks questions later.

Crude is the one still trading its own story. It is pinned under the 91 magnet with protection still bid near the highs of the year, so the expected band is wide on both sides. The 105 cap is a different zip code and the 85 floor is the line the breakdown actually needs. Do not trust a single poke through either edge with vol this fat.

Gold got the worst of it. It is sitting on the 2026 low with the magnet up at 4475 and the floor right underneath at 4272, so the whole fight is in a tight zone at the lows. The long crowd is still bleeding out of it, and rallies into the 4475 magnet are where the supply waits.

Friday was the punch. Mark your levels before the next one lands.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick