Last week the truce gave us the best equity week since November. This weekend it died. If you’re reading this Sunday night, you already know what Globex is about to do.

The Week That Was

Tuesday’s truce changed everything. Iran agreed to safe passage through the Strait. Crude went from $113 to $94 in a single session, the biggest drop since COVID. The equity market took one look at lower energy costs and bought everything. Airlines ripped 10-12%. Tech led because lower energy flows straight to margins. The S&P had its best week since November, up 3.6%. Nasdaq up 4.7%.

Then it all fell apart over the weekend.

ES gapped up Tuesday and never looked back. 167 handles in one session. Consolidated in the mid-6800s for the rest of the week. Three overlapping POCs at 6854-6863 by Friday. The market found value and sat on it. Weekly range 6567-6888. Closed at 6869. Still below March’s close of 6927 and March’s POC at 6967. The gap from March isn’t filled. And now with the blockade announcement, it might not fill for a while.

NQ led the move. 703 points on Tuesday. Closed the week at 25324, above March’s high of 25318. ES hasn’t done that yet. When the Nasdaq reclaims last month and the S&P doesn’t, tech is driving. That divergence mattered going into the weekend. It matters more now because NQ has the most to give back if the rally unwinds.

CL cratered from $113 to $91 at the week’s low. Weekly POC at 98, value area spanning $14 from 91 to 106. That’s not a market, that’s a hostage negotiation. CL closed Friday at 95.63, below the POC. Even after the crash there’s $23 of war premium relative to the pre-war $73. Brent spot cargos were already trading above $120 because it takes months to restart tanker traffic even with a truce. Now there’s no truce and there’s a blockade on top. Crude is gapping higher tonight.

GC caught the safety bid to 4888 then faded into Friday, closing at 4771. Below the weekly POC at 4848. That Friday fade was the market pricing in the deal holding. It’s not holding anymore. Gold catches a bid tonight.

Poor one out for the speculatooooors. Apparently, they were positioned for lower equities going into Tuesday, got their face ripped off on 280 handles of rally, and now the deal is dead. If you were short crude going into the weekend after last week’s 16% crash, you’re about to find out what a blockade does to oil prices. Gold specs are massively long and just watched their position fade all week. That fade is over.

Equity vol was compressing all week. Crude vol was already through the roof at the equivalent of $11 daily moves. The vol divergence between equities and crude was the truce in a single chart. That chart just broke.

The Week Ahead

Tuesday 4/14: NFIB. PPI at 7:30 AM CT. Goolsbee, Barr, Collins speak.

Wednesday 4/15: Empire State Manufacturing. Import Prices. EIA crude inventories at 9:30 AM CT. Beige Book at 1:00 PM CT. Bowman speaks.

Thursday 4/16: Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM CT. Philly Fed Manufacturing. Industrial Production.

Friday 4/17: Barkin and Waller speak. Baker Hughes rig count.

The blockade overrides all of it. Any headline from Tehran, Washington, or the Pentagon moves all four instruments simultaneously.

The Map and What I’m Watching

ES

Three sessions built volume at 6854-6863. Value migrated up 250 points from the prior week’s POC at 6610. The weekly profile is one-time-framing higher with the POC at 6815 and value area 6688-6887. April’s monthly POC is still down at 6620, monthly VAH at 6676. ES is extended above April’s value area by 180 points.

March traded 6894-6968 with POC at 6967. ES closed Friday at 6869, still 60 points below March’s close of 6927. We’re back in the range from hell. The March value area (6894-6968) is the next bracket above if ES can get through the week high.

March POC       6967.00  |  Week POC         6815.00
March close     6927.00  |  Week VAL         6688.00
March low       6894.00  |  April POC        6620.00
Week high       6888.00  |  Prev week POC    6610.00
Friday POC      6858.00  |  April VAL        6503.75

Above 6888 (week high/VAH) ES enters March’s range. 6894 (March low) is the first test, then 6927 (March close), then 6967 (March POC) is the full fill. Below 6858 (Friday’s POC cluster) the first volume is at 6815 (week POC). Below 6815 there’s air to 6688 (week VAL). Below 6688, the next volume is at 6610 (prev week POC). Below 6610 the monthly profile takes over and 6504 (April VAL) is the floor.

NQ

Value migrated 880 points from prev week POC at 24150 to this week’s POC at 25030. Two sessions of POCs at 25300-25301 established value at the top of the range. NQ closed at 25324, above March’s high of 25318. ES hasn’t done that yet. NQ is already back inside March’s range (25010-25318). That’s the bracket.

The week of March 30 value area (23659-24348, POC 24150) is the pullback zone if this unwinds. Three timeframes built volume at 24150. That level matters.

Week high       25386.00  |  Week POC         25030.00
March high      25318.00  |  Week VAL         24909.00
Friday POC      25300.00  |  Mar 30 wk VAH    24348.25
March POC       25164.00  |  Mar 30 wk POC    24150.00
March low       25010.00  |  April POC        24200.00

Above 25386 (week high) and accepting, 25500 is the next area. NQ is already inside March’s range, so the March POC at 25164 and March low at 25010 are the levels to watch on a pullback. Below 25300 (Friday POC), the first real volume is at 25030 (week POC). That 25000-25030 cluster is the dip. Below 24909 (week VAL), air to 24740. Below that the staircase is 24348 (week of March 30 VAH), 24150 (triple-timeframe POC), 23941 (week low).

CL

The weekly profile has a $26 range (91-117) and a POC at 98. Value area 91-106. CL closed Friday at 95.63, below the POC. The prior week’s POC was 102. Value migrated down $4 on the week, but the range expanded massively.

Prev week POC   102.00  |  Friday POC       98.50
Month POC        99.00  |  Week POC         98.00
Friday close     95.63  |  Week VAL         91.17
Thursday low     95.51  |  Week low         91.05

98 is the line. It’s the week POC. Above 98 and accepting, 99 (month POC) then 102 (prev week POC) are the targets. Above 106 (week VAH) we’re back in the pre-crash range. Below 95, the 91 area is the week low and week VAL. Below 91, no volume until the mid-80s.

GC

Gold rallied $262 on the week to 4888 then faded into Friday, closing at 4771, well below the weekly POC at 4848. The monthly profile has POC at 4735 and VAH at 4826. GC is inside the monthly value area.

Week high       4888.00  |  Month POC        4735.00
Week POC        4848.00  |  Prev week VAH    4720.20
Week VAH        4855.30  |  Month VAL        4685.50
Monthly VWAP    4743.97  |  Prev week POC    4620.00
Week VAL        4704.60  |  Week low         4626.20

Above 4848 (week POC) and accepting, 4888 (week high) then 4900 are the targets. Above 4900, the 5000 area is the next volume. Below 4735 (monthly POC), support at 4705 (week VAL) then 4685 (monthly VAL). Below 4685, the prior week POC at 4620 is the floor.

The White Van Stuff

The options stuff is in the room with us. And right now, it’s all about to get repriced.

ES: The ceiling where call sellers were stacked at 6900 doesn’t matter if we’re gapping below it. The put floor where buyers piled in is way down at 6500. Same-day interest was concentrated at 6850 and 6875 on Friday. Those levels become the battle zone if ES gaps down to the low 6800s. The vol environment was calm going into the weekend. It won’t be Monday morning.

NQ: Call ceiling at 25500, put floor at 24000. The options market was pricing daily moves of about 25000-25570. Heavy same-day interest at 25300 and 25400. If NQ gaps below 25300, those same-day levels become resistance instead of support.

CL: Ceiling at 100, floor at 90. The options market was pricing $11 daily windows. If crude gets above 100, the call sellers at 100 start covering and it accelerates. Below 90, same thing in the other direction with put covering.

GC: Ceiling at 5000, floor at 4400. Heavy interest around 4750-4810. Above 4848, the 4900-5000 zone is where the next concentration of interest sits. Below 4735, less resistance to the downside until 4400.

The whole positioning picture from Friday is stale. Everything gets repriced at the open.

The Week’s Plan

ES: 6858 is the near-term anchor. Three sessions built volume there. If ES holds above it and buyers build above 6888 (week high/VAH), we enter March’s range. 6894 (March low) is the first test, 6927 (March close), 6967 (March POC) is the full fill. If 6858 breaks, 6815 (week POC) is the first volume. Below 6815 there’s air to 6688 (week VAL). Below 6688, the next real volume is 6610 (prev week POC). Below 6610, the April monthly profile takes over: 6620 (April POC), 6504 (April VAL). That’s the full staircase down.

NQ: 25300 is value. Two sessions voted on it. NQ is already inside March’s range (25010-25318). If it holds and builds above 25386 (week high), 25500 is the target. If 25300 breaks, March POC at 25164 is the first reference inside the range. Below that, 25030 (week POC) and the 25000 cluster is the dip. Below 24909 (week VAL), air to 24740. Below that the staircase is 24348 (week of March 30 VAH), 24150 (triple-timeframe POC), 23941 (week low), 23667 (April VAL). NQ migrated 880 points in a week. If it gives any of that back, the moves will be fast.

CL: 98 is the week POC. Above 98 and accepting, 99 (month POC) then 102 (prev week POC). Above 106 (week VAH) we’re back in the pre-crash range. Below 95, the 91 area is the week low and week VAL. Below 91, no volume until the mid-80s. The options market was pricing $11 daily swings before the weekend. Quarter size.

GC: 4848 (week POC) is the line. Above it, 4888 (week high), 4900, then 5000 (call ceiling). Below 4735 (monthly POC), 4705 (week VAL), 4685 (monthly VAL), 4620 (prev week POC). GC is inside the monthly value area right now. Watch which direction it breaks out of that range for the signal on everything else.

*Given the weekend headlines, some of these levels may get invalidated quickly during tonight’s Globex session. If the map changes significantly I’ll post an update.*

Protect yourself at all times. Survive and advance.

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*Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.*

Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Last week was a 300-handle round trip in ES. Opened the week at 6380 on Monday, flushed to 6353 in the first session, then spent the rest of the week clawing back. Tuesday ripped to 6654 and stalled one tick below the prior week’s high. Wednesday and Thursday rotated inside Tuesday’s range. Closed the week at 6604. The weekly profile is a hammer: POC 6610, VAH 6654, VAL 6468. That’s a wide value area, 186 handles, but the close above POC tells you buyers won the week. Volume was 1.85M contracts on Thursday alone. People were in the pool.

NQ did the same thing louder. Opened 23190, bottomed at 22962 on Monday, ripped 1400 handles to 24348 by Tuesday, and settled the week at 24130. Weekly POC 24150, VAH 24348, VAL 23659. The monthly open at 23926 flipped from overhead problem to floor. NQ closing above it is the one thing that matters structurally.

Crude was the headline and the reason for all of it. CL opened the week at 102.60, Monday dropped to 96.50 on the early equity flush, then headlines hit. Iran, Strait of Hormuz, and crude went vertical. Thursday’s RTH session printed 97.50 to 113.97. Sixteen handles. That’s not a typo. Weekly POC only at 102 because the bulk of last week’s volume was in the low 100s before the Thursday explosion.

Gold ran from 4520 to 4826 and reversed $126 off the highs on Thursday, closing at 4699. Weekly POC 4620, VAH 4720, VAL 4527. The safe haven bid got crowded, took profits, and is now sitting at 4700 waiting for the next catalyst.

What I’m taking into this week: the equity V-reversal is real but unconfirmed. ES needs to take out 6654 (last week’s high) to confirm it. Crude is the variable that moves everything else. Gold is digesting.

2. THE WEEK AHEAD

CALENDAR
Mon 4/7   7:30am   Trade Balance (Feb)          LOW
Wed 4/9   1:00pm   FOMC Minutes (March)         HIGH
Thu 4/10  7:30am   Initial Jobless Claims       MED
Thu 4/10  7:30am   PPI (March)                  HIGH
Fri 4/11  7:30am   CPI (March)                  HIGH
All Week            Fed Speakers                 MED

Back-loaded week. Monday and Tuesday are light. Wednesday FOMC minutes will show how the Fed is thinking about $110 crude and tariff pass-through with rates at 3.5-3.75%. Thursday PPI, Friday CPI. If CPI comes in hot because of energy, the “hold steady” story gets harder to tell.

The weekend wildcard is Iran. Ceasefire talks are active. A framework would crater crude and rip equities. A breakdown sends crude toward 120 and we retest the lows.

3. WEEKLY STRUCTURE

ES

Last: 6630 | Monthly Open: 6572 | Weekly VWAP: 6617

Wednesday’s last RTH session was a rotation day. 140-handle range, opened at 6622, dropped to 6504, ripped back to 6644, closed at 6624. The profile shows POC at 6610, VAH 6634, VAL 6564. Classic balanced day, close right at the POC.

Sunday Globex opened at 6621, traded up to 6651, sitting at 6630. Overnight profile is building with the POC at 6626, a massive volume cluster: 17,251 contracts at the 6626 level. Overnight value area is tight, 6615 to 6637. Price is above the session VWAP at 6617.

The monthly profile for April has POC at 6610, VAH 6639, VAL 6593. ES is above the monthly open at 6572 and trading in the upper half of April’s value. Constructive.

The histogram tells the story. Two distributions: a lower cluster at 6576-6584 (RTH activity from Thursday’s flush and recovery) and the dominant overnight cluster at 6622-6632. The LVN at 6592 (only 260 contracts) is the gap between them. If price drops through 6592, it falls fast into the 6580 area. If it holds above 6615, the overnight POC is the magnet.

ES LEVELS
Prior Week High     6654   Resistance. The confirmation level.
Weekly VAH          6638   Current upper value boundary
Overnight POC/HVN   6626   17K contracts. Magnet.
Session VWAP        6617   Weekly anchor
Prior Session POC   6610   Multi-day POC, building significance
Monthly VAL         6593   April’s lower value bound
LVN Speed Gap       6592   260 contracts. Fast through here.
RTH HVN Cluster     6580   Volume support from Thursday
Monthly Open        6572   Must hold for bulls.
Prior Week VAL      6468   Deep support

The levels I actually care about this week: 6654 above (confirm or reject), 6610 in the middle (multi-session POC, this is the line), and 6572 below (monthly open, lose this and the V-reversal is done).

NQ

Last: 24311 | Monthly Open: 23926 | Weekly VWAP: 24215

NQ is the stronger of the two. Already trading above last week’s VAH at 24348, pressing the highs. Wednesday’s session was an outside day, 600-handle range, POC at 24150. That 24150 level is showing up everywhere: it’s the Wednesday POC, the weekly POC, and the monthly POC. Three timeframes converging on the same price. That’s a level.

Sunday overnight has POC at 24308 with a fat 5,238-contract cluster at 24305. Value area 24146 to 24375. The RTH profile from Thursday shows two separate distributions: one at 24055-24075 (early session selling) and another at 24200-24220 (afternoon recovery). The LVN between them at 24090-24120 is the speed gap.

NQ LEVELS
Prior Week High     24348   Resistance, already testing
Weekly VAH          24375   Current upper value
Overnight POC/HVN   24308   5.2K contracts
Session VWAP        24215   Weekly anchor
Multi-TF POC        24150   Wed + Week + Month POC. The level.
Monthly VAL         24031   April lower value
Monthly Open        23926   Bull/bear line for April
RTH HVN             24055   Thursday early session volume
LVN Speed Gap       24090   Thin. Fast through here.

NQ in positive gamma means moves get dampened, more range-bound. ES in negative gamma means swings and follow-through. If they start diverging, follow whichever one is leading.

CL

Last: 110 | Monthly Open: 101.72 | Weekly VWAP: 111.50

Crude is still digesting Thursday. That was a 16.47 handle range in one RTH session, 97.50 to 113.97. The weekly POC from last week is at 102 because most of the volume traded before the breakout. Current session value area is 109.52 to 112.30 with POC at 111. Price is sitting right in the middle of value at 110.

IV is at 112.65%. That’s crisis pricing. The expected daily move is $8.

CL LEVELS
Thursday High       113.97   The blow-off top
VWAP +1 stddev      113.00   Upper range boundary
Weekly VAH          112.30   Current upper value
Session POC         111.00   Magnet
ETH POC             110.00   Overnight anchor
Weekly VAL          109.52   Current lower value
Monthly VWAP -1σ    100.00   Deep support if headlines reverse

Crude is headline-driven right now. The profile and levels matter less than whatever comes out of the Middle East. Size accordingly.

GC

Last: 4700 | Monthly Open: 4698 | Weekly VWAP: 4682

Gold closed Thursday at 4699 after a $245 range day. Opened at 4783, tagged 4826, collapsed to 4580, and recovered to 4699. Exhaustion candle. The weekly POC from last week was 4620, and the current session has POC at 4717 with value 4661 to 4725.

The histogram shows two clusters: a broad base from 4656-4688 (1,500-1,700 contracts per bucket) and a spike at 4716-4718 (1,969 contracts). Price is sitting between them at 4700. The monthly open is right here at 4698. Gold is deciding.

GC LEVELS
Thursday High       4826   The blow-off
Session HVN         4717   Overnight volume cluster
Weekly VAH          4725   Upper value
Monthly Open        4698   Right on it. Decision level.
Session VWAP        4682   Below current price. Support.
Weekly VAL          4661   Lower value
Lower HVN           4656   Volume support base
Prior Week VAL      4527   Deep support

4. WEEKLY OPTIONS OUTLOOK

ES: Negative gamma. P/C open interest ratio is 2.82, heavily put-skewed. IV 30D at 19.65%. Expected daily move plus or minus 1.28% (~85 handles). The flip level sits at 6605. Above it, moves dampen. Below, they accelerate. Heavy options interest at 6600 (biggest concentration), clusters at 6575 and 6675. Call resistance at 6800, put support at 6500. Confluence at 6605 where the flip level meets the prior session POC.

NQ: Positive gamma. P/C at 1.31, balanced. IV at 23.31%. Expected daily move plus or minus 1.52% (~370 handles). Biggest interest at 24000, clusters at 24400 and 24500. Call resistance at 24750, put support at 23000. Flip level at 24070, below current price. Confluence at 24245 where a blind spot level overlaps with the RTH HVN.

CL: Crisis volatility. IV at 112.65%. Net GEX massively positive (246M). Biggest interest at 115, then 108, 112, 107, 109. Call resistance at 110 (price right on it). Put support at 90. Expected daily range $8.

GC: IV at 31.97%. Biggest interest at 4700, then 4750, 4650. Call resistance at 5000. Put support at 4400. Flip at 4595, below price. Expected daily range ~$94.

CTA: Speculators in ES were net short heading into the week (-36,230 contracts as of 3/31), but they added 27,710 longs and cut 5,642 shorts. That’s a +33K net swing toward long. They’re covering. NQ specs are net long at +21,513, added 9,564 longs and cut 7,486 shorts. The spec crowd is getting bullish in tech.

VIX: 24.54. 2Y yield at 3.79%, 10Y at 4.31%, spread 0.51%. Normal curve. Fed funds at 3.64%.

5. MOMENTUM AND CONTEXT

Value areas are migrating higher. Last week’s ES POC was 6610, prior week’s was 6655. This week’s early value at 6626 is building above last week’s POC. If this holds through Monday and Tuesday, we’re stacking value higher.

NQ’s value migration is cleaner. Prior week POC 24400, last week 24150, this week 24308. Weekly closes: 23254 (two weeks ago) to 24130 (last week). That’s a 900-point improvement in one week.

Crude went from a monthly VWAP of 105.73 to trading at 110. The monthly profile has a value area from 96.52 to 115.06, which is absurdly wide. There’s no equilibrium, just event-driven price discovery.

Gold monthly VWAP at 4713, price at 4700. Almost perfectly balanced on the monthly anchor. Prior month POC was 5060, we’re $360 below that. Consolidation range.

Cross-asset: crude driving everything. If crude stays above 110, equities stay cautious and gold stays bid. If crude drops (ceasefire), equities rip and gold takes a breather.

6. SWING SETUPS

ES long above 6610. If value continues stacking above the multi-session POC at 6610 through Monday and Tuesday, the weekly structure is bullish. Target: test of 6654 (prior week high). Confirmation: two sessions closing above 6620 with value area above 6600. Wrong if ES closes below 6572 (monthly open). 2-3 day hold.

NQ long on pullback to 24150. The triple-timeframe POC at 24150 is the entry zone. If NQ pulls back from the 24350 area and holds 24150 with buying interest on the footprint, that’s the spot. Target: 24500 (options cluster). Wrong if NQ closes below 23926 (monthly open). 2-3 day hold.

CL fade if 113.97 holds. If crude retests Thursday’s high at 114 and can’t get through, that’s a short. Crisis vol means the move will be fast. Target: 109 area (weekly VAL). Wrong if CL closes above 114. 1-2 days max. Size down, this thing moves $8 a day.

7. WHAT I’M WATCHING THIS WEEK

1. 6654 ES. The only thing that matters for equity bulls. Prior week’s high. Take it out and the V-reversal is confirmed. Fail here and we chop between 6572 and 6654 all week.

2. Iran headlines. More important than any economic data this week. A ceasefire framework changes everything. A breakdown sends crude to 120.

3. CPI Friday. If core CPI comes in hot because of the energy spike, the Fed’s “hold” narrative gets complicated. That’s the kind of print that moves markets 100 handles.

4. NQ vs ES divergence. NQ in positive gamma, ES in negative. If they start moving in opposite directions, follow the leader.

5. 24150 NQ. The triple POC. Does it hold as support or break?

8. THE WEEK’S PLAN

Bullish above 6610 ES, neutral between 6572 and 6610, bearish below 6572. NQ is the cleaner long if you want equity exposure. Crude is untradeable for size until the headline risk calms down. Gold is a coinflip at 4700. CPI Friday is the land mine. Size down until Wednesday at minimum. Protect yourself at all times. Survive and advance.

Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free trading course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick