The Tape

ES ran up to 7610 early Monday and leaked the whole thing back, closing 7563 on a 7563.5 POC with value stacked 7553.75 to 7593, a session that gave away its highs. The overnight drifted a tight 7544 to 7575 and sits 7555 now, back under Monday’s POC and pinned to 7547, the shelf June built its volume on. Reclaim 7563.5 the POC and 7575 the overnight high and 7588.5 last week’s POC opens, then 7593 Monday’s upper value. Lose 7544 the overnight low and 7546 the developing value floor, and 7532 is the gate, where last week and July both bottomed their value. It sits 7555, on the June line.

NQ was the ugly one Monday, tagging 29752 and getting sold all day to close 29466 near the low on a 29500 POC. The overnight bought it back, running from 29490 up to 29670 and sitting 29630, pressed right on 29663.75, Monday’s value ceiling. Through that and 29670 the overnight top, 29700 June’s POC is the first real test, then 29752 Monday’s high with 29900 July’s POC above. Lose 29600 the developing POC and 29500 the Monday POC gives, then 29469 the value low and 29393 Monday’s low. It sits 29630, nose against the top of yesterday’s range.

CL went vertical Monday, running from 73.43 to 78.46 and closing 77.66, a trend day that left its 74.7 POC far behind. The overnight kept pushing, gapping to 79.78 and tagging 81.27 before settling to sit 79.76 on top of the whole range, today’s volume building at 80.3 over a 79.55 shelf. Above 80.3 and 81.27 the overnight peak it is thin air, nothing built overhead until June’s spike zone. Below 78.83 the overnight base, 78.46 Monday’s high flips to support, then 77.56 the value high and 74.7 the Monday POC underneath. It sits 79.76, the highest crude has printed in weeks.

GC pushed to 4075.5 Monday and got sold all day, closing 4009.3 near the low on a 4015 POC. The overnight steadied it, holding 4020 to 4040 and sitting 4036.9 back at Monday’s 4033 value, and this is the chart the safe-haven bid is supposed to lift and instead keeps getting sold, a full shelf under last week’s 4111. Through 4039.5 the value high and 4040 the overnight top opens 4066 July’s floor, then 4075.5 Monday’s high. Below 4020 the overnight base, 4015 Monday’s POC gives, then 3996 and 3993 the value base and session low, with air to 3975 June’s low under it. It sits 4036.9, back at Monday’s upper value.

The Calendar

Tuesday, July 14 (all times CT):

- 7:30 CPI, the print the whole tape is frozen for

- 9:00 Fed Chair Warsh testifies on the Hill

- 11:40 Fed’s Barr, then Goolsbee at 12:00, Cook at 12:30, Bowman at 1:55

- 3:30 API crude inventories after the close

CPI at 7:30 and a brand-new Fed Chair on the mic at 9:00 back to back are the whole morning. Everything before the open is just positioning for those two.

The Plan

ES:

ES is pinned to the June shelf at 7547, the price the whole prior month built its volume on, with 7555 the developing session sitting on top of it. Above 7558 today’s POC the first job is 7563.5 Monday’s POC and close, then 7575 the overnight top. Reclaim those and 7588.5 last week’s POC opens, then 7593 Monday’s value high and 7604 last week’s value ceiling, with 7610 Monday’s high the extension. Below 7546 the developing value base and 7544 the overnight low, the tape gives to 7532, where last week and July stack their lows. Lose that and there is air to 7469 last week’s low, then 7451 June’s floor.

NQ:

NQ has repair to do after Monday’s flush, sitting 29630 with the overnight bounce pressing 29663.75, Monday’s value ceiling. Above 29670 the overnight high, 29700 June’s POC is the first real test, then 29752 Monday’s high, with 29900 July’s POC the level that says the flush is done. Hold above 29600 today’s POC and the bounce keeps its base. Below it, 29500 Monday’s POC gives, then 29469 Monday’s value floor and 29393 Monday’s low. Under the low there is 29369 the July shelf, then 29350 where last week and the month built their heaviest volume.

CL:

Crude is the only chart moving and the game is whether it holds the breakout. 79.55 the developing value base over 78.83 the overnight base is the shelf, and above it the run stays alive with 80.3 today’s POC and 81.27 the overnight peak the first targets. Through that peak there is open air, nothing built overhead until June’s spike zone. Below 78.83 and 78.46 Monday’s high, the gap starts to fill toward 77.56 Monday’s value top, then 74.7 Monday’s POC where the volume actually sits. Under that it is 73.44 Monday’s value low, then 72, where last week and July both parked their volume.

GC:

Gold has to prove Monday’s fade was an overreaction. 4033 Monday’s value ceiling is the shelf it is testing this morning, and clearing 4040 the overnight high puts 4066 July’s floor back in reach, then 4075.5 Monday’s high. Above there, 4097 last week’s floor is the proof the down move got repaired. Below 4024 today’s POC and 4020 the overnight low, 4015 Monday’s POC gives, then 3996 Monday’s value base and 3993 the session low. Under the low there is air to 3975 June’s low.

The White Van Stuff

This is a headline tape, not a yields-and-dollar tape, and the positioning is chasing crude while it runs away from everything else. Oil cleared its entire options structure overnight, so its whole cage now sits underneath spot as support, while the equity books stayed tight and quiet into the print. Gold’s protection is stacked above a market that keeps sinking away from it, the one book on the screen pricing fear that price refuses to pay for.

ES: The equity band is tight, priced for a quiet session if the number lets it be one. Price sits under the 7630 same-day cap with the bulk of the interest stacked overhead into the 7700 structural cap, and the 7550 magnet is the shelf right under it. The put floor for the day is 7540 with the expected low at 7496.

NQ: NQ carries the wider book, priced for more than three times the broad index’s move. Price sits between the 29540 magnet under it and the 30000 same-day cap overhead, with a thin ceiling until that round number. The downside interest builds from 29300 down to the 29000 put floor, the expected day running 28986 to 29965.

CL: Crude’s book is the loudest on the board and price already blew through the top of it. The old 78 cap flipped to support underneath, and the whole structure from there down to 72 now sits below spot, so that shelf is the floor. Overhead there is almost nothing until the 81 same-day cap, then the 82 expected high and air to 83.5.

GC: Gold’s structure is stacked above a market falling away from it, and price just nudged over its 4025 same-day cap. The 4066 expected high and the 4095 magnet sit overhead into a wall of interest from 4100 up, and the 4020 pivot is the line the fade keeps pressing. Under it the real interest thins to the 4000 floor, then 3950 and the 3945 expected low.

Trust your prep. See you at the top.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

The ceasefire died Tuesday night, three tankers got hit, and the president confirmed it from a podium, and that one headline wrote every chart’s week. Crude put an entire war premium back on in a single overnight and spent the rest of the week handing it back. The indexes flushed hard Wednesday morning and then did the thing nobody was positioned for: bought all of it back, ES finishing on its weekly high and NQ over the round number. Gold got sold into a shooting week because expensive barrels feed the same rate math that has been squatting on this tape all summer, and with the ten-year camped near 4.6 the metal could not keep a bid. The chip tape got sold out of Asia early, ended the week carrying the index anyway, and the biggest foreign listing ever hit the Nasdaq Friday to a bid. One headline, four charts, and only one of them is still trading it.

ES opened the week at 7565 and closed 7621, higher on the week and out the top after touring the whole map in between: through 7594 Monday, back under it Tuesday, flushed to 7469 Wednesday, back through it Friday. The week’s volume settled at 7588, right under the line it kept fighting over.

NQ went 29836 to 30037 on the week, its first Friday close above 30000, by way of a 29034 flush that broke everything first. The volume never followed the recovery up; the week built its base at 29350 and left it behind.

CL opened 68.28 pinned to the floor it spent two weeks dying on, ran to 76.08 by Wednesday, and closed 71.57 after three straight sessions of selling, to the tick on 71.60, the top of the old range. The streak of lower weeks is over; what replaced it is a spike nobody trusted past lunch.

GC opened 4168 and closed 4117, lower on the week, rejected at 4192 for the second week in a row. It flushed to 4032 midweek, clawed back to the 4111 week POC by Friday, and that double lid overhead now runs the chart.

Cross-asset read: The headline that was supposed to sink equities got them a Friday close at the top of the range, and the only chart still trading the conflict is crude, which cannot hold its own rallies for more than a session. Gold falling on a week like this with yields up tells you what the market is actually afraid of: the rate math, not the missiles.

Positioning (July 7 data): The trader crowd is still net short both the S&P and the Nasdaq, third report running, and it spent another week as bounce fuel while the tape ground higher. The barrel crowd flipped back to the long side right as the shooting started, the right side for about one session before the spike got sold. Gold’s long crowd never left and is still loaded, which cuts both ways at a two-week lid.

Vol: The VIX sat at 16 through all of it, so protection on the index side still costs next to nothing. Crude’s book never got the memo, and gold’s is jumpier than the metal’s chart looks.

The Calendar

EARNINGS SEASON IS SO FUCKING BACK.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Tuesday morning, all of it. The June print at 7:30 CT, five banks before the bell, the chair testifying at 9:00. The rate path, earnings season, and the whole recovery reprice in one session.

2. NQ 30000. First close above it in five tries, with the volume base left behind at 29350. Acceptance opens 30250, the price last week anchored on; another rejection and 29700, the summer shelf, is back in play.

3. ES 7594, round three. Monday’s breakout failed, Friday’s gets the retest. If it holds there is only 7647 and 7694 left overhead from this year’s structure.

4. Crude at 71.60. The spike round-tripped to the exact top of the old range. Above it the new range builds from the 72 shelf; below it the rest of the premium unwinds toward 70.

5. Gold’s cage. Two weeks, two rejections at 4192, while the floor stack holds underneath: the floor of this week’s value at 4097 with the options crowd’s magnet sitting on the same shelf at 4095.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

The whole week distilled to one line: 7594, last week’s high with July’s value ceiling built on the same price. ES broke it Monday, lost it Tuesday, flushed to 7469 Wednesday, and took it back Friday with value following, closing 7621 with the week’s volume parked at 7588 right under the line. Hold 7594 and the breakout is working: 7627 the week high first, then 7647 June’s value ceiling, and past that 7694, the June high, the only structure left overhead. Lose 7594 and the fight resumes: 7588 the week POC goes first, 7556 last week’s POC under it, then 7532, where the week’s value bottoms, the gate that says the breakout failed twice. Below that it is 7497, last week’s floor of value, and 7469 the flush low, then 7451 June’s value floor with air underneath to 7307, the June low.

NQ:

NQ finally closed over 30000 at 30037, first time in five sessions of knocking, but the week’s volume never followed it up: the base built at 29350 during the flush and price left it behind. Acceptance above 30000 targets 30094 the week high, then 30250, last week’s POC and the first price overhead with a real argument in it, then 30356 the July high and 30438 last week’s value ceiling. Through 30600, where last week topped, there is nothing but air to 31100, the June record. If 30000 fails again, 29900 the July POC catches first, then 29700 June’s POC, the shelf the sellers camped on all summer. Under that it is 29620 where last week’s value bottomed, 29350 the week’s volume base, and 29034 the double bottom, with 28506 under everything.

CL:

Crude did the whole war trade in one week: glued to 68 Monday, gapped through everything to 76.08 by Wednesday, then sold for three straight sessions to close 71.57, sitting to the tick on 71.60, last week’s high. That line is the edge between the new picture and the old one. Hold above 71.60 and the range builds: 72.00 the week POC is the first fight, 73.56 the week’s value ceiling next, and 76.08 the spike high is the cap until a fresh headline says otherwise, with 78.81 June’s value ceiling past it. Lose 71.60 and the unwind is on: 70.14 last week’s value ceiling, then 70.00 where June parked its volume on the round number. Under 70 it is 68.30 last week’s POC and 68.06 where this week bottomed, then 67.43 with nothing under it until 65.

GC:

Gold’s week was a rejection at 4192, the same price that capped it last week, and that double lid now runs the chart. It flushed to 4032 midweek when the rate math took over, then spent Thursday and Friday climbing back to close 4117 on the 4111 week POC. Reclaim 4125, the top of last week’s value, and the lid gets its third test: 4163 July’s value ceiling, 4182 the week’s, then 4192 itself, with thin trade above it all the way to 4365, the June POC. Lose 4097, the bottom of the week’s value, and 4082, July’s floor, is the gate. Under that the stack at 4042, June’s value floor sitting on last week’s POC, is the real decision, then 4022 and 3976.

The White Van Stuff

ES has a book that chased the breakout: the heavy interest that sat below price all month is now stacked overhead from 7625 to 7690, with the cap at 7700 right behind it. The magnet got left at 7545 and the put floor is all the way down at 7500. It closed 7621, trading into the stack.

NQ has the biggest single line in its book at 30000, and Friday was the first close on top of it. Above, the interest clusters 30100 to 30300 and then thins out fast to the 31000 cap; below, the magnet waits at 29770 and the put floor at 29000. It closed 30037, a hair over the line.

CL never calmed down and still owns the loudest book on the board, the densest interest packed 71 to 73 right where price sits. The cap at 76 is where the spike died, and the floor is 70. It closed 71.57, under the 72.25 magnet.

GC carries the heaviest put lean of the four books, and the floor side is a staircase: the 4095 magnet, then interest every few dollars down to the 4000 put floor. Overhead the band from 4165 to 4195 sits under the 4300 cap. It closed 4117, leaning on the 4115 shelf.

Enjoy your weekend. See you Tonight for SundayTicks Live on everything 8pm CT.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

The whole week turned on one number. Payrolls landed at 57k, soft enough to put the tightening talk on ice, and the indexes that got sold all last week ripped right back while the Dow closed the half at a record. The money leaving the chips kept landing on gold, and crude spent the week scraping its lowest prices since winter as barrels keep coming back.

ES opened the week at 7398 and closed 7557, with Thursday’s 7593.75 high sitting right under last week’s 7599 print. Two weekly highs on top of each other is the wall the new quarter opens against.

NQ opened 29282, ran to 30600 by Tuesday, and the chip selling dragged it to 29328 Thursday before the half-day bought it back to 29901. Higher on the week, ugliest chart of the four getting there.

CL bled to 67.04 Thursday, its lowest trade since February, and finished 68.78. Fourth week lower in a row, and every bounce died at the same line just over 69.

GC flushed to 3962 on Tuesday, a fresh 2026 low by less than a point, then went one direction into a 4187 close. Two weekly lows at the same price in two weeks, both bought.

Cross-asset read: Indexes took the soft print as relief, gold took it as fuel, and crude ignored it completely because its problem is supply, not the rate path. Rotation, not distribution, until the floors start breaking.

Positioning (June 23 data): The holiday pushed the updated report, so this is the same picture as last week, and it played out exactly like bounce fuel does. The short crowd got squeezed out, not converted.

Vol: The VIX closed at 16 and change, books everywhere are priced for a quiet summer, and thin tapes cut both ways.

The Calendar

The minutes are the only thing on here that can really move it, the first look inside the new chair’s first meeting. No Mag7 this week, the banks kick off earnings season the week after.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. FOMC minutes Wednesday 1:00 PM CT. The tape spent four sessions deciding the hawkish turn was overdone. If the minutes read like the committee meant it, the whole rip is offside.

2. ES 7594 and 7599. Two weekly highs stacked overhead. Acceptance above opens 7632, the June high, with nothing traded higher this year.

3. NQ 30000. Holding above it points the bounce back at 30600 where Tuesday died. Losing 29328, Thursday’s flush low, says the chip selling is not done.

4. Gold through 4216. The double floor at 3962 is in and the week closed at the highs. Through 4216, last week’s high, the air gets thin for a long way up.

5. Crude at 67.04. Lowest trade since February with no recent volume underneath. Either the low keeps holding, or it breaks and price discovery does the rest.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

The new quarter opens at 7557 staring at the paired highs at 7594 and 7599, and that is the whole decision. Through 7599 it’s 7632, the June high, and past that nothing on the chart from this year. Hold 7524, Friday’s low, and dips stay entries; lose it and 7480 then 7398 decide whether the rip was real, with 7357 and 7232 waiting below.

NQ:

NQ closed 29901, right in the middle of the week’s fight at 30000. Above it, 30320 then 30600 where Tuesday’s run died, and through there 30968 is the top of the entire structure. Lose 29522 then 29328, the gate, and under that it’s 29160 with air to 28228, the June low.

CL:

Crude closed 68.78 under the 69.25 line it failed at all week. Reclaim it and 70.19, 70.75 and 71.60 are the bounce steps, with nothing above until the stranded structure at 78.96. Lose 68.08 and 67.04 is the gate, the lowest trade since February; below 67 it’s discovery toward the 65 round.

GC:

Gold closed 4187 with only 4208 and 4216, last week’s high, between it and a new recovery leg. Through 4216 the trade is thin all the way toward 4541, the June high. Hold 4134, Friday’s floor, and the V keeps its shape; lose it and 4062 then 4022 come first, with 3962, the double floor, underneath.

The White Van Stuff

The books came out of the holiday pinned: ES inside its densest interest shelf under the cap, NQ sitting on its magnet, crude’s flush caught by its floor, gold pressing its upper band. Nobody is paying up for protection anywhere, which is exactly how quiet weeks stop being quiet.

ES sits at 7557 inside the heavy interest from 7530 to 7580, the 7600 cap directly overhead, the 7510 magnet the landing spot below, and the put floor a long way down at 7400.

NQ closed parked on its 29810 magnet with the put side crowded, interest packed from 29300 down to the 29000 floor. First wall overhead is 30000, the cap a long climb away at 31000.

CL owns the loudest book on the board, compressed into the 66 to 72 window. Thursday’s flush ran straight into the 67 put floor and held, with the magnet at 70 and the cap at 76 on top of everything.

GC ran its reversal straight into the upper interest band, 4192 and 4212 pressing with the 4286 cap on top of them. The floor at 3987 is where the book drew its line, and the 3962 flush poked under it and snapped right back.

Still on vacay so will ease back in this week. The screen will be there tomorrow. Cheers.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

Tech bleeding and gold bidding on the same tape is the tell of the week. Crude was off in its own funeral, third week lower with the war premium fully gone, answering to supply instead of the rate path. Four sessions of selling in the indexes, one violent reversal in gold, and all of it walks into a jobs report that got pulled forward into a holiday-shortened week.

ES opened the week at 7573 and closed Friday at 7380, lower on the week and out the bottom of its own value. The week POC built up at 7444 with the 7408 value floor sitting above the close, the first weekly close back under value since the recovery rolled over. Sellers leaned on every bounce the entire back half.

NQ took it the hardest. It opened 30822, tagged 30968 early, then the chip worry took the wheel and it bled to a 29182 low and a 29312 close, the 29700 week POC a ceiling now. The chip-led group that carried the tape all spring is the one dragging it lower.

CL kept doing what it has done for a month. It opened the week near 74, lost the 73 shelf by midweek, and closed 69.51 sitting on the 68.55 week low, the whole pre-crash structure stranded up near 80 and the spring’s value a different planet entirely. The barrels-are-coming-back trade has pulled price clean out of three months of value.

GC was the comeback story. It opened 4225, flushed to a fresh 2026 low at 3975, then reversed hard and closed 4086 back above the 4030 week POC. The metal that bled all spring is suddenly catching every dollar that runs out of tech, and it did it with the ten-year still going the wrong way for it.

Cross-asset read: One hawkish reset, two opposite trades. The indexes sold the rate scare and the growth worry on the same tape, while the rotation out of tech handed gold the bid it could not buy for itself all spring. The metal is up with yields up, which is not supposed to happen, and that divergence is the cleanest read on the board. Crude answers to supply and the talks, not the rate path, so it is in its own world at the lows.

Positioning (June 23 data): The trader crowd walked in leaning short both the S&P and the Nasdaq, which is exactly the bounce fuel that keeps getting lit every time the tape has to cover into strength. The barrel crowd finally flipped to the short side after riding the premium down all spring.

Vol: Equity protection stayed cheap on the S&P while the Nasdaq’s book is the jumpy one of the two, and crude still carries the fattest, loudest book on the screen. A tape priced for calm walking into Thursday’s number on a half day is the part that bites.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Payrolls Thursday 7:30 AM CT. The override on every chart, and it lands on a half day before a long weekend. The first read since the projections flipped to a hike, dropping into a thin tape that shuts at noon. Hot confirms the dots, soft fights them, and either way the close carries gap risk into Monday.

2. NQ getting carried out. It closed 29312 under the 29700 wall where the week and the month both stacked their POC. While it is under that line the path points down at the 28506 June low, and the chip group that broke it is the one that has to fix it.

3. Gold’s reversal. It printed a fresh 2026 low at 3975 and turned on a dime, closing back above the 4030 week POC. The bid is the money leaving the semis, not the rate path, so the question is whether it holds 4030 or fades back into the flush.

4. Crude in a vacuum. Third week lower and pressing the 68.55 week and month low with no recent volume underneath. The whole pre-crash shelf is stranded near 80 and 91, so bounces are headline trades and the breakdown is the structure.

5. ES back under value. Friday closed under the 7408 value floor for the first time since the recovery topped. Reclaim 7408 and the dip stays a bounce, lose 7360 and the week turns heavy toward the 7307 June low where the month built its volume on June’s flush.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES closed the week at 7380, under the 7408 floor of its value, so the first job is reclaiming 7408 to get back inside the range. Above 7408 the 7444 week and month POC is next, then 7475 week VAH, and above there the 7558 last week’s value floor is the line that says the dip-buyers actually showed up. Through 7558 the 7613 last week’s POC is the wall where all the recovery volume now sits as supply, with 7649 last week’s high and the 7693 June high overhead. Hold 7360 and the dip stays a bounce. Lose 7360 the week low and 7355 the June VAL goes with it, then there is air down to 7307, the June low.

NQ:

NQ closed 29312, under the 29392 week value floor, the weakest of the four and the one the AI worry is carrying out. The line that matters is the 29700 stack where the week and the month both parked their POC, so reclaiming 29392 gets it back into value and 29700 is the wall it has to take to call this anything but a bounce. Above 29700 the 29890 week VAH opens, then air to the 30353 last week’s value floor and 30450 last week’s POC, with 30915 last week’s high overhead. Lose 29229 the June VAL and 29182 the week low is the gate, and losing that opens the vacuum straight to 28506.

CL:

Crude closed 69.51 sitting on the 68.55 week and month low, having fallen clean out of its own value with the 70 week POC the only nearby line overhead. A bounce has to first reclaim 73.06 the week VAH and 73.20 the month POC, and from there it is a long climb to the stranded volume at 75.85 last week’s POC, 77.55 last week’s VAH, and 80.04 the June VAH. Those are headline-only targets now. Lose 68.55 and there is no recent profile underneath, just price discovery into the 67 round and the 65 floor.

GC:

Gold reversed off the 3975 low and closed 4086, back above the 4030 week POC and pressing the 4106 week value high that lids the bounce. Reclaim 4106 and 4160 last week’s low is the first step, then 4231 last week’s value floor gets it back inside last week’s range, with 4250 last week’s POC and 4365 the June POC the next shelves up. Above there 4403 the June VAH and 4532 the May POC are the wall where the long crowd kept trimming all spring. Lose 4030 and 4049 the June VAL goes, then 3981 the week VAL, then back to 3975.

The White Van Stuff

ES has the calmest book of the four, the option crowd leaning slightly short with cheap protection and price pinned right on the 7400 put floor it has been defending. The magnet sits overhead at 7490 and the cap is a long way up at 7800, so the whole fight is in the dense interest shelf between the floor and the magnet.

NQ carries the heaviest put-side book of the four and it is sitting in the bottom third of its expected week, leaning on the 29000 floor with the magnet pinned just overhead at 29900. The cap is a long way up at 31000 with thin interest the whole way there, which is what a contract getting carried out looks like on the book.

CL owns the fattest, loudest book on the board and the vol on it never came in. The magnet is stranded up at 79 in a different era of the contract, the cap a relic at 90, and down at price the only thing that matters is the heavy interest stacked from 66 to 72 and the real floor a long way under at 65.

GC spent the week climbing back into its own book, price now pressing the upper interest after reversing off the low with the long crowd leaning hard into every bounce. The cap is up at 4300, the magnet sits overhead at 4195, and the put floor down at 4000 is the line the reversal cannot afford to lose.

Life moves pretty fast. Go blow up some shit with m80s and grill some burgers and hotdogs.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

ES spent the front half clawing back toward the highs and tagged 7649 Tuesday, a hair under the 7693 June high, before the projections knocked it back into value. It closed 7564 sitting on the 7558 floor of the week’s value with the 7613 POC built right overhead. First close back under that POC since the recovery started.

NQ took the rate hit hardest and recovered it fastest. It slid to 29923 on the projections, then the semi headline carried it back through the whole drop to close 30693, leaning on the upper third of the week’s value above the 30450 POC. Strongest of the four and the only one that closed within striking distance of its 31100 record.

CL kept doing what it has done for a month. It opened the week near 80, lost the 73.58 low by Thursday, and closed 76.91 with the entire pre-crash shelf stranded up at 84 and 91. The supply-is-coming-back trade has pulled price clean out of three months of value.

GC was the wreck of the group. It ranged 4220 to 4403 and closed 4236 near the low, then the thin holiday tape leaked it under the 4220 week low toward 4180. Every bit of structure now sits overhead, and the metal is trading straight inverse to the ten-year with nothing under it to lean on.

Cross-asset read: One central bank and one corporate headline split the board clean in two. The projections should have sunk everything, and for an afternoon they did, but the tie-up handed equities a reason to climb back while the metal had no such lifeline and ate the rate move whole. Crude is off in its own world, answering to supply and the talks, not to the rate path. The indexes are a chip story, gold is a rates story, and oil is a peace story, all printing on the same tape.

Vol: The fear gauge slid back under 18 as the protection bought for the meeting got dumped into the semi rally, so equity vol is cheap again right into a PCE Thursday. Gold and crude vol never came in, and the metal’s book is built to push the next leg down, not catch it.

The Calendar

Micron after the bell Wednesday is the lone single-stock print with real macro in it, a direct read on whether the bid that saved the week has earnings to back it up. Everything else bends to Thursday morning.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. PCE Thursday 7:30 AM CT. The override on every chart. The first inflation read since the projections flipped to a hike, stacked with GDP and durable goods the same morning. Hot confirms the dots, soft fights them.

2. NQ holds the chip bid. It closed 30693 back above the 30450 week POC on the strength of the semi headline and never looked back. While it holds that line the path points at the 31100 record. Micron after Wednesday’s close is the test of whether the bid has earnings under it.

3. ES at the floor of value. The recovery ran into the 7613 week POC and stalled, closing 7564 on the 7558 value floor. Above 7613 the highs come back into view, under 7558 the week turns heavy toward the 7472 low.

4. Crude in a vacuum. It fell clean out of three months of value and there is no recent volume under the 73.58 low. The whole pre-crash shelf is stranded at 84 and 91, so bounces are headline trades and the breakdown is the structure.

5. Gold has nothing overhead but supply. Every level above price is a seller now. It is pressing the 4220 week low with the 4072 flush low the last real shelf underneath, and it answers to the ten-year harder than anything else on the board.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES closed the week on the 7558 floor of its value with the 7613 POC sitting right on top, so the first job is reclaiming 7613 to get back in control. Above 7613 the 7636 week and month ceiling is next, then 7649 the week high and 7693 the June high where the whole run topped out. Hold 7558 and the dip stays a bounce. Lose 7558 and 7546 the June value floor goes, then 7499 last week’s POC and 7472 where the week put in its low. Below 7472 there is air down to 7420 last week’s value floor, and under that the slide runs to 7307 where June built its volume on the jobs flush, the line the whole month is stacked on.

NQ:

NQ closed 30693 in the upper third of its value, holding above the 30450 POC the semis reclaimed, the strongest chart of the four. Above 30766 the week ceiling and 30834 June’s, the 30915 week high is the gate, and taking it opens clean air to the 31100 record. Hold 30450 and dips stay buyable. Lose 30450 and 30353 the week value floor goes, then 30139 last week’s high and 29923 the week low catch the first legs down. Below 29923 the vacuum opens to 29524 last week’s volume shelf, then 28506 where last week and June share their low, the deep base the whole rally is built over.

CL:

Crude closed 76.91 having fallen clean out of its own value, the 76 week POC the only nearby line and the whole pre-crash shelf stranded overhead. A bounce has to first reclaim 80.16 the week ceiling, and from there it is a long climb to the stranded volume at 84 last week’s low, 86.66, June’s value floor, and 91.30 where the month and last week both built their base. Those are headline-only targets now. Lose 73.58 the shared week and June low and there is no recent profile underneath, just price discovery into the low 70s and the 70 round where the next real volume sits.

GC:

Gold closed 4236 near its low and the holiday tape leaked it under the 4220 week low toward 4180, so it walks in below everything. The first job is reclaiming 4231 the week value floor and the 4250 POC just to get back inside the range. Above that 4284 last week’s value high and 4364 the week ceiling are the next steps, with 4403 the week high and 4532 the May POC the wall where the long crowd keeps selling. Lose 4180 and 4112 June’s value floor is the catch, then 4072 where last week and June share the flush low. Below 4072 it is fresh discovery with no volume to lean on.

The White Van Stuff

The reset to the hike side cut two ways across the books. The index surfaces stayed calm and balanced through the whole round trip, the protection cheap again and the pin back on stocks, while the metal’s book is loaded for downside and built to push the next leg, not catch it. Crude still owns the loudest, widest book on the board, its magnet stranded in a different era of the contract from where price actually trades.

ES has the calmest book of the four, the option crowd leaning slightly long again with cheap protection and price parked right on the 7545 magnet. The cap is a long way up at 7700 and the floor sits down at 7400, so the whole fight is in the dense interest shelf between the magnet and the cap.

NQ carries the heaviest call-side book of the four and it still ran to the top of its expected week, which is its own kind of risk if Thursday surprises hawkish. The magnet sits at 30490 just under price and the real cap is a different planet up at 32000.

CL owns the loudest, widest book on the screen and the vol on it never came down. The magnet is stranded way up at 83.60 in a different era of the contract, the cap a relic at 101, and down at price the only thing that matters is the heavy interest stacked from 73 up to 81 and the real floor a long way under at 70.72.

GC spent the holiday session falling out the bottom of its own book, price now under the expected low with every option line of consequence sitting overhead. The magnet at 4340 caps every bounce, the heavy interest stacks 4250 to 4400, and the put crowd is leaning hard with the only real floor a long way down at 4000.

Never think you’re smarter than a dumb market. It will get dumber for sure. Cheers Friends.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

ES spent the week clawing back the prior week’s losses, dipped to 7247 early, then built its value back up at 7415 and closed at 7433. The week POC stacks right on the 7420 May POC, which is the shelf the dip-buyers chose to defend. First close back in striking distance of the value it lost, but the bounce stalled the second it hit the old floor.

NQ was the V. It dipped to 28227 early, then climbed back through all of the prior week’s damage and closed 29677, above the 29476 week VAH and a stone’s throw from the 29848 week high. It is the strongest of the four, the one the buyers chased hardest. The short crowd that pressed the lows got run over the whole way up.

CL was the holdout that finally cracked. It ran the early week near 92, then unwound the entire back half on the agreement headline and closed 84.30, sitting on the 84.13 week low with the whole week’s volume stranded up at 91.30. The war premium that held it up for three months is coming out a barrel at a time.

GC flushed to a fresh low at 4072 then clawed back to close 4231, holding above the 4175 week POC. The freefall paused, but the metal is still under every bit of May’s value and trading straight inverse to the ten-year. It is a rates bet now, nothing more, and it is waiting on Wednesday like everyone else.

Cross-asset read: One story did all of it, and it pointed the opposite way from last week. Soft inflation and a draft to bring the barrels back flipped the same dominoes in reverse, stocks ripped and the safe-haven bid kept bleeding out of gold because rising rates are the one thing it cannot fight. Crude got monetized as the supply-is-coming-back trade while the indices got bought as the war-risk-is-leaving trade. The equities recovered on rates, the metal sold on rates, and the only one in true free-fall is the contract with a signature pointed at its throat.

Positioning (data through midweek): Read the latest print as the book going into the bounce, not after it. The trader crowd fought the entire melt-up from the short side and was still leaning that way into the flush, and this V is exactly what a stranded short book does when it has to cover into strength. The fuel that drove the rip is mostly spent now, but a book that is still short is two-sided ammunition into Wednesday either way.

Vol: The fear gauge is back near the lows. The downside protection that paid on the way down got sold into the recovery, so it is cheap again right at the highs going into a new chair’s first meeting. Crude vol never came down and gold vol is set to expand the move, not dampen it. A market positioned for calm right into the one event that can break it is the part that bites. Size for a two-sided Wednesday.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. FOMC Wednesday 1:00 PM CT. A brand new chair’s first meeting and the override on every chart. No move is the base case, so the projections and the press conference are the whole event. Mark your levels cold and do not try to predict the man.

2. NQ round-tripped the flush. It closed back above the 29476 week VAH and never looked back. While it holds that line the path points at the 29848 week high and the broken value overhead. Lose 29240 and the V starts to look like a lower high instead.

3. ES stalled at value. The bounce ran straight into the 7415 week POC stacked on the May POC and stopped cold. Above 7470 the recovery has room toward the broken 7524 value. Under 7385 the week gets heavy in a hurry.

4. Crude is in free-fall on the agreement. It closed on the 84.13 week low with the whole week’s volume stranded overhead and nothing recent underneath. A signed deal gaps it lower on the open. The only thing that reverses it fast is the talks falling apart.

5. Gold is a pure rates bet. It bounced off the 4072 flush low but everything from May is overhead supply. Wednesday moves it as hard as it moves the indices. 4175 holds the bounce, 4284 gets it back into the broken range.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES dug out of the hole all week and ran the bounce straight into the 7415 week POC, where the May POC sits on the same tick, and stalled. Reclaim 7443 Friday VAH and 7470 week VAH and the recovery has room to the 7491 week high, then the broken 7524 prior week value, with the 7624 prior week POC the wall where the whole melt-up’s volume now sits as supply. Lose 7385 June VAL and the week turns heavy again, with 7366 the Friday low and 7338 May VAL the first real shelf under it. Below 7338 the air opens to 7326 week VAL, then 7247 week low, and 7199 May low is where the month actually built its volume.

NQ:

NQ acted like nothing happened. It reclaimed the 29476 week VAH on the way back up and closed leaning on the 29760 Friday high. Hold 29476 and the 29848 week high is the gate, and taking it opens the 29948 prior week VAL and the long climb back to the 30590 prior week POC, the floor that broke and is a ceiling now. Lose 29240 May POC and the bounce loses its footing, with 28974 the prior week low, then 28600 week POC where this week built its base. Below 28600 the 28465 week VAL and 28337 May VAL stack close, and losing them reopens the vacuum to the 27614 May low. There is almost nothing between the week base and the May value.

CL:

Crude closed the week dead on the 84.13 low with the entire week’s volume stranded up at the 91.30 POC, which means price fell clean out of its own value and never looked back. The reclaim that matters first is 86.35, the May low that held all last month and is overhead resistance now, then 87.38 week VAL gets it back into the week’s range. Above that the 90.86 prior week VAL and the 91.30 week POC are the distant overhead and the bounce is pure headline. Lose 84.13 and there is no recent volume to lean on, it is price discovery down to the spring’s old value at 82.58 April VAL, and below there the 77.21 April low is the only structure left.

GC:

Gold bounced off the 4072 flush low and is hanging just above the 4175 week POC, the line that defines whether the bounce has legs. Reclaim 4256 Friday high and 4284 week VAH and the next step is 4338, the prior week low that is resistance now, then 4439 prior week VAL into the 4500 prior week POC and 4532 May POC, where the long crowd keeps trimming every rally. Lose 4175 and the 4073 week low and flush low come right back, and below there it is fresh price discovery with no volume to catch it.

The White Van Stuff

The book flipped back this week. The crowd that loaded downside protection on the selloff dumped it into the rally, so the pin is back on stocks and the amplifier got switched off on the indices. It stayed on for crude, where the book is still loaded for downside and every leg lower greases the next.

ES is back inside the long-side pin it gave back on the flush, with the book leaning slightly to the call side and protection cheap again. The cap is up at 7550, the magnet sits below at 7360, and price is parked in the dense heavy-interest shelf between them. That is a setup that wants to grind sideways, right up until Wednesday’s print blows the pin apart.

NQ already cleared the structural call line it lost on the flush, so the overhead that matters now is the old value shelf up at 30200 to 30500 and the expected high near 30112. The magnet still sits way down at 28950, which tells you how far value ran from price on the V. It is the most call-heavy book of the four, and that is its own kind of risk into a hawkish surprise.

Crude is still trading with the amplifier on, the book loaded for downside and the vol fattest on the board. It lost the 85 floor and there is nothing but heavy-interest air down to the 82 expected low. The 91 magnet is a different zip code now, which is exactly what a contract in free-fall looks like on the book. Do not trust a single poke through either edge with vol this fat.

Gold is pinned under a stack of heavy interest from 4250 up to 4300, with the magnet at 4345 capping every bounce. The book is still tilted to the put side and the long crowd keeps feeding rallies into that 4345 line. The floor is a long way down at 4000, so the whole fight is in this tight band at the lows.

The protection is cheap again, the book is long again, and the calendar has a brand new chair running his first meeting on Wednesday. There is a line from Rounders that fits the week. If you can’t spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker. Mark your levels and know which side of the table you SHOULD be sitting on. Personally? My vibes going into this week are as follows:

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

ES ran to a fresh 7632 record by Tuesday and camped up there for four days, then Friday opened 7547 and bled the whole session to 7379, closing 7400. The week POC built up at 7624 with value down to 7524, and Friday is the first close below that entire value area in the entire run. The melt-up had its tenth week lined up and never got it off the ground.

NQ did it with more violence in both directions. It tagged 30807 Wednesday, the highest print in its history, then Friday opened 30035 and never looked up, trading to 28974 and closing 29016. The 30590 week POC is a ceiling now, the round 30000 it defended for two straight weeks broke on the open, and the whole week’s value got left overhead.

CL was the lone holdout and it still closed soft. It ran to 96.58 midweek on the Strait headline, then faded the back half and closed 90.24, a tick under the 90.86 week VAL. Up on the week, under its own value, and entirely hostage to the next overnight statement out of the talks.

GC got taken apart. It opened the week at 4533 and went one direction, losing 4409 prior-week support and printing 4338 Friday, the weakest gold has looked all year, closing 4343 with the week POC at 4500 now well overhead. Higher-for-longer is kryptonite for the metal and the long crowd keeps trimming into every bounce.

Cross-asset read: One number did all of it. Jobs ran hot, yields jumped, and every trade that depended on a friendly Fed reversed on the same candle. The chip complex led the unwind, gold lost its safe-haven bid because rising yields are the one thing it cannot fight, and crude was the only one left standing because it answers to the Strait, not the ten-year. The melt-up and the safe haven died on the same print. That is the tell.

Positioning (June 2 data): This print is from Tuesday, so read it as the book going into the drop, not after it. The trader crowd was already leaning short both indices, net short the S&P by a wide margin and net short the NASDAQ by less, and for nine weeks that was the losing side that kept getting carried out. Friday it finally paid. The catch into next week is that shorts already on the board are fuel for a bounce the second they decide to cover.

Vol: The fear gauge went from under 16 to 21.51 in a single session and the cheap protection that defined the melt-up is gone. Equity books are bid for downside now, crude and gold vol never came down, and nothing about this tape is sleepy anymore. Size for two-sided overnights and gap risk on every print.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. CPI Wednesday 7:30 CT. The override on everything. A hot number confirms the rate scare and the indices keep bleeding. A soft one and the dip-buyers get their excuse back. Mark your levels cold before it prints. Do not try to predict it.

2. NQ 30000 is a ceiling now. The round number it defended for two weeks broke on Friday’s open and the whole week’s value sits overhead. As long as price is under it the path of least resistance points down toward the May value. The first reclaim that means anything is 29828.

3. ES below the week’s value. Friday closed under 7524 for the first time in the run. While price is under it, the 7624 week POC is supply, not support, and the May POC at 7420 is the line Friday died on. The reclaim of 7524 is what says the dip-buyers showed up.

4. Gold at 2026 lows. It lost last week’s entire range and there is no volume underneath 4338. The metal trades straight inverse to yields now, so it is a live read on whether the rate scare sticks. 4409 for a reclaim, 4338 for the break.

5. Crude’s lonely bid. It is the only thing that held, and it held on the headline, not the tape. The week VAL at 90.86 is the line. Above it crude keeps its premium, below 88.68 the war bid is unwinding with everything else.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

ES spent the whole week above 7524 and lost it Friday for the first time in the run, closing 7400 right on the May POC at 7420. Reclaim 7524 week VAL and the drop was a flush, with 7595 prior week POC and the 7624 week POC the targets overhead, though that week POC is a wall of supply now, not a level to chase. Hold under 7420 and the week stays heavy, with 7379 the week low and 7338 May VAL the first real shelf below it. Lose 7338 and the air opens to the 7199 May low where the month actually built its volume. Wednesday’s number is the button on all of it. Do not be a hero below 7338 into a hot print.

NQ:

NQ is the one that broke the cleanest. It defended 30000 for two weeks and lost it on Friday’s open, closing 29016 under the 29240 May POC. Get back above 29240 and the bounce targets 29828 prior week VAL and the 29948 week VAL, with the 30590 week POC a ceiling a long way up. Stay below 29240 and the 28974 week low is the gate, and losing it opens the vacuum to 28337 May VAL with the 27614 May low underneath that. There is almost no volume between the week low and the May value, which is exactly why this one travels in a straight line when it goes. Wednesday decides whether the air below gets filled this week.

CL:

Crude is the only one that closed green on the week and it still finished under its own value. It closed 90.24, a hair below the 90.86 week VAL, after rejecting 96.58 midweek. Reclaim 90.86 and the 93 week POC and 93.90 prior week POC are the overhead, with 96.58 the week high above that. Lose the 88.68 prior week VAL and the 86.35 floor that held all of last month is the target, and below there it is price discovery. The whole contract still hangs on the headline, so the bounce setups are headline-dependent and the breakdown is structural. Size for the gap on every overnight.

GC:

Gold is in free fall and sitting on the 2026 low at 4338. It lost last week’s entire range, the 4409 prior week low is overhead now, and 4343 is where it closed with nothing but air underneath. A reclaim of 4409 gets it back into last week’s range and 4439 week VAL is the next step, with the 4500 week POC and 4532 May POC the real supply where the long crowd keeps trimming. Below 4338 there is no recent volume to lean on, it is fresh lows and price discovery from there. The metal is a pure rates trade now, so Wednesday’s print moves it as hard as it moves the indices. No knife-catching this week.

The White Van Stuff

The book flipped this week. For two months the options crowd was positioned for nothing to go wrong and that positioning pinned every dip. After Friday it is the other way around. The protection that was dirt cheap a week ago got bid in a hurry, the fear gauge closed at 21.51 after sitting under 16, and the equity books are now built so the next push gets chased instead of faded. Three of the four are sitting on or under their floors with the amplifier switched on.

ES closed Friday dead on the 7400 floor with the book loaded better than three to one in downside protection. Lose 7400 with the amplifier on and there is nothing structural until the 7322 expected low and the cluster right under it. The cap is all the way up at 7600 where the whole melt-up’s call selling still sits, and the magnet at 7545 is overhead now instead of a pin.

NQ is the violent one. It lost the floor that held it for two weeks and that old support at 29400 is overhead resistance now. The magnet sits way up at 30175, which tells you exactly how far value ran from price, and the expected band is the widest of the four in both directions. This is the contract that moves first and asks questions later.

Crude is the one still trading its own story. It is pinned under the 91 magnet with protection still bid near the highs of the year, so the expected band is wide on both sides. The 105 cap is a different zip code and the 85 floor is the line the breakdown actually needs. Do not trust a single poke through either edge with vol this fat.

Gold got the worst of it. It is sitting on the 2026 low with the magnet up at 4475 and the floor right underneath at 4272, so the whole fight is in a tight zone at the lows. The long crowd is still bleeding out of it, and rallies into the 4475 magnet are where the supply waits.

Friday was the punch. Mark your levels before the next one lands.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Week That Was

ES ran the short week from a 7515 low to a 7611.75 high and closed Friday at 7593.75, glued to the top of the range. Week POC built up at 7536 with value 7518 to 7577, and price spent Thursday and Friday parked above that value the whole way. It never traded with the low after Tuesday.

NQ did the same thing with more violence, running 29826 to 30536 and closing Friday at 30364. It cleared 30000 for the first time on Wednesday and never gave it back, building week POC right on that round number. The crowd that loaded short into April’s lows just watched its last line of defense flip into a floor.

CL was the week’s car wreck. It traded as high as 94.70 early and closed Friday at 86.80, sitting on the 86.35 week low with nothing underneath but April’s old value. The whole week’s volume sits up at 93.90, which means price fell completely out of its own value area and never came back. Worst month for the contract since the Covid crash, all on the headline that the Strait reopens and the barrels come back.

GC was the one two-way fight. It puked to 4409 on Thursday, the weakest gold has looked since March, then turned and closed Friday at 4590 back above the week VAH at 4584. Week POC 4532 lines up exactly with the month POC. The bounce is real, but the April value up at 4708 still caps it and the long crowd keeps trimming.

Cross-asset read: The tell of the week is that a hot inflation print on Thursday could not lay a glove on the indices. The number ran to the highest year-over-year in nearly three years and still matched what everyone expected, so the tape treated no-new-surprise as a green light and made record highs into it. The AI names did the heavy lifting, Dell and Micron and the chip complex, while crude got monetized as the de-escalation trade and gold round-tripped its own panic. Three of four are stretched. The question into next week is whether stretched becomes more stretched, or whether 30000 on NQ and the record on ES finally pull a two-way fight out of dirt-cheap vol.

Vol: Equity vol is on the floor. The fear gauge closed the week at 15.74, with ES one-month at 12.41 percent and NQ at 19.78, which is about as cheap as protection gets this cycle. That is the setup that bites: nobody is paying up for downside right at the highs into a jobs Friday. Crude vol is the opposite, still bid hard near 57 percent because the contract has no idea where it settles once the headline stops moving it. Gold vol is set up to expand the move rather than dampen it. Size for a two-sided week and gap risk on every overnight.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. NQ 30000. The round number it cleared Wednesday is now the week POC and the line the whole melt-up rests on. Hold it and the next stop is the 30536 record, then clean air. Lose it on a Monday gap-fill and the 29828 week low opens, with the prior week’s value at 29377 the real catch. The crowd that covered 14,000 shorts into this is the fuel either way.

2. ES record at 7612. Friday closed a hair under it. Above it there is no overhead volume left, which is exactly when these things either go vertical or fail on the first poke. Watching whether the breakout holds a session or fades back inside the 7536 week POC.

3. Crude trying to find a floor. Price closed on the 86.35 week low with April’s old value the only structure left underneath. The reclaim that matters is 88.89 week VAL. Above it the bleeding stops for a minute. Below 85 April POC and the next real shelf is 82.58. The deal headline drives the whole thing either direction, so size accordingly.

4. Gold’s 4532 line. The week POC and month POC sit on the same price, which makes it the gate. Hold above it and Friday’s bounce extends toward the 4627 week high. Lose it and the 4409 week low comes back into play fast. The April value up at 4708 still caps the upside.

5. Cheap vol into a jobs Friday. The fear gauge at 15.74 and equity protection near the lows of the cycle means the market is positioned for nothing to go wrong, right at the highs. Payrolls Friday is the print that can pull a two-sided move out of a one-way month. You do not need to predict it. You need your levels marked cold before it prints.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

7536-week POC is the line that defines the melt-up. Above 7577 week VAH price holds the posture it closed with, and the 7611.75 week high is the only thing between price and clean air. Take that and there is no overhead volume to lean on, which cuts both ways. Below 7536 the first real test is 7518 week VAL, then 7491 prior week close and 7448 prior week VAH. Below 7425, where the prior week POC stacks on the month POC, the air pocket opens down to 7338 month VAL and the deep 7160 April POC is where the real volume lives.

NQ:

30000 is the whole story. It is the round number, the week POC, and the line the short cover happened around. Above 30270 week VAH price keeps pressing the 30536 record. Take it and clean air opens overhead. Below 30000 the 29828 week low is the first catch, then 29553 prior week close and 29377 prior week VAH. Below 29240, where the prior week POC meets the month POC, the vacuum down to 28337 month VAL and the deep 27400 April POC opens up. That is a long way down with very little in between, which is the risk of buying a vertical melt-up at the highs.

CL:

There is no support in here, only an old value area from April. Price closed on the 86.35-week low. The reclaim that matters is 88.89 week VAL, and above that 92.25 April VAH and the distant 93.90 week POC are the real overhead. Below 86.35 the 85 April POC is the magnet right underneath, then 82.58 April VAL is the floor, and below it there is air to the 77.21 April low. The deal headline is the only thing that reverses this quickly, so the bounce setups are headline-dependent and the breakdown setups are not.

GC:

4532 is the gate, the week POC and month POC on the same tick. Above 4584 week VAH price keeps the Friday reversal alive toward the 4627 week high, and above that the 4708 April value is the real cap with the 4810 month high beyond it. Below 4532 the 4474 month VAL and 4455 week VAL stack close together, and losing 4455 puts the 4409 week low back in play. The long crowd is still trimming, so rallies into the April value are where the supply lives.

The White Van Stuff

The options book is built tight overhead on equities and price is pressing right into it. ES is parked under its 7600 cap, NQ already cleared its 30300 cap and is leaning on the 30400 same-day line, gold punched back above its same-day cap on the Friday bounce, and crude is pinned to a heavy-interest shelf with its vol still bid. None of these are walls, they are where the size sits, and price pressing into that size at the highs with cheap protection is how you get a fast move either direction.

ES sits right under the 7600 cap with the 7641 expected high above it and the magnet down at 7495 well underneath. Pressing the cap with vol this cheap means a poke through 7600 has very little in the way until the 7625 to 7700 shelf. The 7200 put floor is a different zip code.

NQ already did to its cap what ES is thinking about. Price cleared the 30300 line and is leaning on the 30400 same-day cap, with the 30685 expected high the next real surface and the 31000 shelf beyond. Underneath, the flipped 30300 cap and the heavy-interest clusters are the first catches, and the magnet sits way down at 29240.

Crude is hugging the 86 to 88 heavy-interest shelf below its 91.75 magnet, with vol bid near 57 percent so the expected range is wide on both sides. The 92.50 same-day cap and the distant 105 cap are the overhead, and the 80 put floor is the deep structural line if the breakdown extends. Wide vol means the bands are not tight, so do not trust a single poke through either edge.

Gold cleared its 4566 same-day cap and the 4560 expected high on the Friday close, which flips both into support if the bounce holds. The 4666 cap is the real overhead. Underneath, the 4472 magnet lines up almost exactly with the 4467 put floor, so that 4467 to 4472 zone is the line the bounce cannot lose without giving the whole thing back.

See y’all Sunday night at 8pm for SUNDAYTICKS.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

Go enjoy the holiday. Then join us Tonight at 8 pm CT for SUNDAYTICKS (Mondayticks?*)

The Week That Was

Last week had two stories stacked. The first half was the recovery from the prior Friday’s record reversal. ES and NQ both rebuilt through Tuesday and Wednesday to within striking distance of the cycle highs. Then NVDA reported Wednesday after the bell. $81.6B revenue, 85% YoY, $80B buyback, upbeat chip-sales guide. The stock dipped on margin worries and the index futures used it as the excuse to take Thursday to record close on the Dow with ES tagging 7524 and NQ printing 29749 within a hair of last week’s all-time. Then Friday’s half-session before Memorial Day did the second story: gold gave back another leg, crude dumped through 100 and through 95 in the same session ending at 97, and the weekend headlines on the agreement framework set up the gap-up tape we walked in to this morning.

ES opened the week at 7430 and closed Friday’s half-day at 7484, up 54 net on a week with a wide 7354 to 7524 range. Week POC built at 7425 sitting right on the May POC 7420, value 7375 to 7453. The 7354 weekly low was Monday’s flush before the rebuild. Trend day character Thursday into the half-day pulse Friday.

NQ opened at 29030 and closed Friday at 29520, up 490 net on a 28663 to 29749 range that visited the prior week’s low Monday then ripped back to within 33 of the cycle high Thursday. Week POC 29240, value 28838 to 29348. The short crowd that was loaded going into the prior reversal covered hard. NQ positioning closed 14,000 shorts in one week.

CL opened the week at 102.85 and closed Friday at 97, down $5.85 on a week the 100 line failed for real. Week range 94.73 to 105.21. Week POC 102 paired with May POC 98 directly. The 100 breakout from two weeks ago is now broken from above and the prev month POC at 90.90 is the next real magnet underneath. Trend down day Thursday and Friday.

GC opened at 4540 and closed Friday at 4510, down $30 net on a week range 4455 to 4593. Week POC 4542, value 4498 to 4554. The cycle peak at 4917 still caps the bigger picture and the long crowd keeps shedding. The April low at 4128 is the deeper destination if 4455 cracks.

Cross-asset read: The cleanest tell of last week is what happened around NVDA. The numbers were a beat and a buyback and the stock barely budged, which the algos read as the AI trade getting tired. Then Thursday the indices ripped to record on Dow anyway because de-escalation matters more than NVDA right now. Crude finally took 100 off the table and gold kept selling on the same yield move. Three of four instruments closed Friday in the middle of last week’s range. Then the weekend handed the indices a Sunday rip on the deal framework and crude got steamrolled on the same headline. The question into next week is whether the deal closes and the moves extend, or it falls apart and the gap fills before Tuesday’s open.

Positioning (data as of 2026-05-19): The short side on S&P stayed loaded at 113,960 net short, only covering 2,624 contracts through the rebuild. The NQ side blinked. They went from 19,793 net short to 5,770 net short in one week, covering 14,023 contracts as price ripped to within 33 of the cycle high. That cover happened BEFORE the weekend gap. Coming in Tuesday morning, the NQ shorts are looking at price well above their reduced-short level with the cycle high already taken out in Globex. Gold’s long crowd is shedding fast at 148,660 net long, down 16,000 from the prior report as yields kept ripping. Crude positioning on ICE WTI is 9,268 net long, flat to slightly long going into the de-escalation tape.

Vol: Equity vol is sitting right where you would not want it. ES IV 13.65% and NQ IV 19.97% going into a Core PCE print and a deal announcement window. Gold is set up to expand below the structural cap rather than dampen. Crude IV is still bid hard at 80.75% because the contract has not figured out where to settle.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. The deal headline window. Trump said Saturday a 60-day ceasefire extension framework is largely negotiated and the Strait reopens with Iran selling oil freely. Sunday he walked it back saying he will not rush it. Both sides of that statement live in this week’s tape. Headline either way moves crude and equities in opposite directions intraday.

2. NQ 29749 cycle high retest. Sunday Globex already cleared it on the gap. The line that matters going into Tuesday’s RTH open is whether the breakout holds with volume or fades back inside last week’s value at 29348. The short side covered 14,000 last week. If they fold the rest, NQ 30,000 is in play. If price gets faded back below 29500 the cover trade reverses.

3. Crude 100 from below. The line that capped four weekly attempts then flipped and then failed and then got steamrolled is now overhead. Watching where price settles versus 100. Above 100 means deal optimism is being faded. Below 95 with conviction means the prev month POC at 90.90 is the next destination and the long crowd that piled in over $100 is fully underwater.

4. Gold 4498 last week VAL. Gold puked through every layer last week and closed at 4510. Last week’s VAL at 4498 is the line the longs need to defend to keep the cycle alive. Below 4455 last week low and the April distribution starts to unwind. The cycle peak at 4917 still caps the bigger picture.

5. Core PCE Thursday 7:30 AM CT. The Fed’s preferred inflation print into a 30Y at 5.197% and a 10Y at 4.687%. Yields holding above last week’s bid keeps pressure on equities and gold. Yields cooling and the deal closes and the rally extends one more leg.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

7484 last week’s close paired with the 7483 May VAH, the line Sunday Globex jumped over to settle at 7562. Above 7524 last week high holds we extend through 7540 the prior week high cluster and 7555 expected high overhead and the target opens above 7600 in clean air. Above 7484 holds but 7524 caps we work the 7484 to 7524 chop range. Below 7484 fails and 7453 last week VAH catches the first leg, then 7425 last week POC paired with 7420 May POC is the structural gate. Below 7420 we lose 7375 last week VAL and 7354 last week low opens the next leg, then air to 7282 prior week VAL and 7160 April POC where the real volume sits.

NQ:

29520 last week’s close, the line Sunday Globex jumped 460 above to settle at 29979 right under the 30000 structural cap. Above 29749 last week high holds the breakout extends through 29930 expected high into 30000 in clean structure with 30250 the next options shelf above. Above 29520 holds and 29749 caps we work the 29520 to 29749 chop range. Below 29520 fails and 29348 last week VAH catches the first leg, then 29240 last week POC is the gate paired with 29300 May POC. Below 29240 we lose 28838 last week VAL and 28663 last week low opens the cascade, then 28587 May VAL and air to 27622 April high stacks next, then 27400 April POC where the multi-month volume sits. The short side already covered 14,000.

CL:

100 the line that capped four weekly attempts, then flipped, then failed, and now sits overhead as the structural ceiling. Above 95.98 May VAL holds the rebuild works through 96.66 prior week VAL into 97.96 last week VAL paired with 97 last week close. Above 100 the deal optimism is being faded and 102 May POC catches the move with 105.21 last week high above. Below 95 fails and 94.73 last week low cracks, then air opens to 93.21 prior week VAL and 92.83 prior week low. Below 92.83 we lose 90.90 prev month POC the deep magnet, then 88.75 the long-term level where the real volume sits with 84.69 April VAL the structural floor underneath.

GC:

4498 last week VAL, the line gold needs to defend to keep the cycle alive. Above 4542 last week POC paired with 4550 May POC holds the rebuild works through 4554 last week VAH into 4593 last week high. Above 4593 we extend to 4654 April VAH and 4698 May VAH with 4717 April high the deeper test. The cycle peak at 4917 still caps the bigger picture. Below 4498 fails and 4469 May VAL catches the first leg, then 4464 April VAL stacks, then 4455 last week low is the gate. Below 4455 we lose air to 4128 April low where the long crowd from prev month POC 4600 finally folds. Yields ripping means gold keeps selling.

The White Van Stuff

The positioning cage rebuilt above price on equities through last week and the weekend rip cleared the structural caps on NQ. Gold is set up to expand moves below the structural cap rather than dampen. Crude vol stays bid at IV 80% with the contract structurally untethered from same-day positioning until the headline tape settles.

ES sits 7562 above the 7500 same-day cap and the 7555 expected high, with 7590 the same-day cap stacked tight as the next overhead surface. The 7600 all-expiry cap sits above. The 7395 magnet and 7200 floor sit well underneath.

NQ punched clean through 29500 same-day cap and 29930 expected high overnight to settle 29979 right under the 30000 all-expiry cap. The 30250 next shelf is the upside catch above the cap. The 28960 magnet and 28000 floor sit well underneath as the deeper positioning surfaces.

Crude blew through every options floor on Friday and the weekend extended the dump. 100 same-day cap is overhead. 92 heavy interest cluster is right at price. The 88.75 magnet is the structural magnet underneath. Net positioning is still positive at +187M which is why the headline drives the next move either direction.

Gold settled below every options floor that mattered last week and the weekend bid only got it back to 4574, right under the 4580 magnet. Net positioning is still negative which means the contract expands moves rather than dampening them. The 4510 all-expiry cap is now below price after the bid. The 4450 floor and 4567 expected high are both broken in opposite directions.

May the odds be ever in your favor.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

“But equities don’t care about bonds?…..right?”

UPDATE: After some feedback, I have now made “The bracket” image that contains the key levels. This should make it easier to read and follow. I understand some of you found the narrative structure harder to read or just wanted the quick-hitter levels for the week or session.

The Week That Was

The week had two stories stacked on each other. Monday through Thursday was the eighth straight up week. The setup was clean. yields ripping, dollar bid, equities and gold getting carried out in the same move while crude finally got through 100 for real.

ES opened the week at 7410 and closed Friday at 7436, up 26 points net on a week that felt like a top. Week range 7363.25 to 7540. Week POC built at 7435.5, value 7363.5 to 7472. Friday closed sitting right on week POC after the overnight puke wiped out the prior session’s value area. Trend day character Thursday into a reversal day Friday.

NQ opened at 29305 and closed Friday at 29172, down 133 net but high-to-low Friday was 640 points. Week range 28742 to 29782, fresh weekly record on Thursday’s high. Week POC 29690, value 29179.25 to 29778. Friday parked on week VAL after the breakdown.

CL opened the week at 98.08 and closed Friday at 103.78, up $5.70 and through the 100 line that capped four prior weekly attempts. Week range 96.13 to 104.26. Week POC at 101.02, value 99.52 to 103.91. The line that mattered finally flipped. May POC 102 sits right under price as the new floor.

GC opened at 4681 and closed Friday at 4545, down $136. Week range 4539 to 4758. Week POC 4688, value 4664 to 4722. Friday’s overnight reversal cracked every layer of weekly structure. The cycle peak at 4917 still caps the bigger picture but the longs that were supposed to be selling on positioning got carried out instead.

Cross-asset read: The cleanest tell of the week is the simultaneous yield-up trade. Equities and gold got carried out in the same overnight move while crude finally cleared 100. That’s a real positioning shake. Three of four instruments broke from above in the same tape. The question into next week is whether Friday was the start of the unwind the spec community has been waiting on for two months, or one more flush before the trader crowd finally throws in the towel and gives the rally its squeeze.

Positioning (data as of 2026-05-12): The trader crowd on S&P added another 32,000 short contracts going into the eighth up week. Net short now 116,584 on S&P, biggest in the dataset. NQ flipped from net long 635 last report to net short 19,793 this report. They piled on shorts INTO the rip. Then Friday handed them their first real win in two months. Gold’s long crowd is loaded at 165,174 net long going into a yield-driven flush. Crude positioning is basically flat at 442 net long. The asymmetry on equities is the most loaded short positioning of the cycle going into a Fed event week.

Vol: The cage rebuilt below price on Friday. Implied bands broke from above on three of four instruments. Vol is no longer compressing, it’s repricing on the yield move.

The Calendar

Don’t forget about NVDA Earnings this week.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. The S&P trader crowd at record short. 116,584 contracts net short going into the eighth up week. The most loaded short positioning of the cycle. If they cover into next week’s tape, the rally extends one more leg. If they hold and add, Friday was the start of the unwind they spent two months waiting for.

2. Crude 100 holds as support. Crude cleared 100 for the first time in four weeks of attempts. Holding 100 next week is the test of whether the breakout is real or another headline pump. Below 100 and the May POC at 102 flips back to ceiling.

3. Gold 4584 prev week VAL. Gold puked through 4688 week POC and 4664 week VAL on the yield move. 4584 prev week VAL is the line the longs need to defend to keep the cycle alive. Below 4522 April low and the entire April distribution unwinds.

4. Yields and dollar. Friday’s move was a clean yield reprice. Three of four instruments broke from above on the same tape. Watch the 10Y and DXY into the week. Yields holding above Friday’s bid keeps pressure on equities and gold. Yields cooling and the spec-short squeeze comes back into play.

The Week’s Plan

ES:

7435 week POC, the line Friday’s overnight reversal parked on and the level the whole week revolves around. Above 7435 holds we work back through 7472 week VAH then 7507 prior Thursday VAL into the 7525/7526 yesterday POC and close cluster. Above 7526 the week-high retest opens through 7540 yesterday high in clean air with May VAH at 7530 the only structural cap in between. Below 7435 fails and 7427 prev week VAH stacks tight with 7420 prev week POC and May POC paired right under as the structural gate, then air opens to 7363 week low. Below 7363 the deeper test runs through 7327 May VAL, 7282 prev week VAL, then 7211 April VAH and 7160 April POC where the real volume sits.

NQ:

29180 week VAL, the line Friday’s dump parked on. Above 29180 holds the rebuild works through 29250 May VAH into 29476 mid-cascade then 29636/29690 yesterday VAL and POC paired tight on the week POC level. Above 29690 the run reopens through 29778 week VAH and 29782 yesterday high which is also week high in clean air. Below 29180 fails, 29142 yesterday low cracks, then 29001 prev week VAH is the structural gate at the line the rally had to take out to extend. Below 29001 we lose 28742 week low and 28670 prev week POC stacked, then the May POC at 27880 is the next floor with 27622 April high and 27400 April POC the multi-month structure below. Sixteen of seventeen green sessions ended in one Globex.

CL:

100 the line that finally flipped after capping four weekly attempts. Above 100 holds we work back through 101.02 week POC into 102 May POC and the 103.64 yesterday VAL cluster. Above 103.91 week VAH the upside extends through 104.22 May VAH and 104.26 week high, then 105.31 prev month close opens with 106.76 prev week high the deeper test toward 108.50 prev month high. Below 100 fails and the 99.52 week VAL stacks with April VAH at the same level, then 95.37 May VAL is the next floor before 95 prev week POC, then 89.70 April POC catches the deeper fade with 85.70 April VAL the structural floor. EIA Wednesday is the only scheduled crude event but the headline tape runs every day.

GC:

4584 prev week VAL, the line gold needs to reclaim to repair the weekly structure. Above 4584 holds we work back through the 4664 week VAL into 4688 week POC paired with April VAL on the same line, then 4696 May POC into 4722 week VAH. Above 4733 the prev week close opens, then 4758 week high and 4775 prev week high stack tight, with 4812 April POC the bigger ceiling and 4844 April VAH then 4917 cycle peak above. Below 4584 fails and the 4539 week low cracks, then 4522 April low opens the breakdown, then 4510 prev week low, then air to 4450 prior swing where the April long crowd finally goes underwater. Yields up means gold down.

The White Van Stuff

The yield-up trade rebuilt the positioning cage below price on three of four instruments overnight Friday. Dealer net gamma dropped 49% on ES and 79% on NQ in a single session. The wall is no longer the wall it was. Gold’s long crowd is still at 165,000 net long going into the same yield move that’s pulling them lower. Next week’s tape decides whether the trader crowd’s record short capitulates and gives the rally its squeeze, or holds and Friday extends.

ES sits 7436 right on the 7420 put floor and pivot pivot, with the 7500 call ceiling sitting 65 points overhead as the structural cap. Same-day expected band is plus or minus 70 handles into Monday.

NQ is parked 29172 below the 29175 put floor and the 29260 pivot pivot, with the 30000 call ceiling sitting 800 points overhead. The all-expiry put floor shifted DOWN 65 points to 29175 as Friday’s reversal repriced the floor. The positioning cage is now stacked below price by about 200 points.

Crude cleared 100 with conviction and the 102 same-day cap flipped to support after the rip. The 105 expected high tops the daily band, the 109.60 all-expiry call ceiling sits in clean structure above.

Gold settled 4545 below every options floor that mattered Friday. Put floor at 4675 and pivot at 4685 are both fully broken from above. The 4625 expected low is now overhead and the daily band tops at 4745, well above current price.

There are no two words more dangerous than “fully priced in.” Head on a swivel. React and don’t predict this week.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

SUNDAYTICKS EPISODE 02 TONIGHT

*NEW* - The Bracket: the trigger price, the cascade above, the staircase below, and the event that voids the read. Use it as the chart-side cheat sheet, not the whole story. Still playing with format. Open to feedback if it would be better as a table or image or just text.

The Week That Was

The week’s story was a strong April jobs print on Friday capping six straight up weeks for equities. Crude unwound the entire Strait premium from 108 down to 90 mid-week before settling 94.91 Friday. Gold went the other way and closed near the highs as longs added on the dip. The seventh straight up week happened with the trader crowd still loaded short the index. This is now squeeze fuel that won’t go away.

ES opened the week at 7250.50 and closed Friday at 7421, up 170 points and another 2.4% on top of the prior week’s record close. Week range 7199.25 to 7428. Week POC built right at 7420, value 7282.75 to 7427. Friday closed within a tick of the week POC and the all-time high. Trend day character on the print Friday with no real test below 7400.

NQ opened at 27854.50 and closed Friday at 29339.50, another 1,485 points of gain. Week high 29340.75 fresh, week low 27614.50. Week POC at 28670, value 27796 to 29001. Sixteen of seventeen sessions green now. The breakout retest at 27622 (April high) held early in the week and the rally extended through 29000 call ceiling like it wasn’t there.

CL opened the week at 102.82 and closed Friday at 94.91, down $7.91. Week range 90.30 to 106.76, a $16 round trip in five sessions. Week POC at 95.0 right where Friday closed. The headlines flipped enough times to clear out both sides of the book. The week ended with the entire war premium gone and the supply story back on the table.

GC opened the week at 4584.30 and closed Friday at 4733.40, up $149. Week range 4510.10 to 4775.20. Week POC at 4717.5, value 4584.6 to 4775.1. The April peak at 4917 still caps the bigger picture but the longs that were supposed to be selling into ceasefire optimism added instead. Three weeks of distribution turned into one week of accumulation.

Cross-asset read: Equities ripped on payrolls, crude unwound on de-escalation, gold ripped on positioning. Three different stories, three different trajectories. The cleanest tell going into next week is whether crude finds a real bid at 90 or keeps leaking. If crude stays soft and gold stays bid into a CPI print, that’s a signal longs believe inflation is sticky enough that the Fed can’t cut.

Positioning (data as of 2026-05-05): The trader crowd on S&P is still net short 83,995 contracts going into the seventh up week. They covered roughly 11,000 contracts from last week’s 95,000 net short, but they’re still loaded against a tape that won’t quit. The Nasdaq crowd flipped basically flat (635 net long) after running heavy short the prior weeks. Gold’s long crowd is loaded at 156,500 net long going into a 3.2% up week. Crude positioning is small at 4,663 net long. The squeeze fuel on equities is still real and the gold long side just got paid for it.

Vol: ES 30-day implied at 14.4%. NQ at 20.8%. Vol is compressing on equities while crude and gold stay jumpy on headline risk. The market is pricing calm into the CPI print. Sizing rules differ by instrument.

The Calendar

What I’m Watching This Week

1. CPI Tuesday 7:30 CT. The override on every read. April core is the print that decides whether the rate-cut math survives or the Fed’s hike-watch language gets credit. A hot print and the entire seven-week rally is on the table for retest.

2. The 7-up streak. ES and NQ at fresh records going into a CPI print. Sixteen of seventeen NQ sessions green. Streaks end on prints, not headlines. The asymmetric read is short-side hedges from Monday to Tuesday morning.

3. Crude 90 holds or breaks. Crude lost $14 from the war premium peak and closed 94.91 right on week POC. Below 90 (week low) and the 89.70 April POC opens fast. Holds 90 and crude is back in the prior month’s range awaiting the next headline.

4. The trader crowd’s S&P short. 84,000 contracts still net short going into a seventh up week. Squeeze fuel doesn’t dissipate without a cover, and a cover won’t happen at the lows. If they finally throw in the towel, that’s another leg up.

5. Gold’s stickiness through ceasefire. Gold ripped back through 4775 against the de-escalation narrative. The 4789 call ceiling and 4775 week high are the same area. Above 4789 with conviction and the long crowd has the wheel. Below 4717 week POC and the long-side excitement gets retested.

The Week’s Plan

7420 week POC, the level the whole week respected. Above 7420 we work through 7428 week high into 7475 cluster and 7486 expected top with 7500-7550 stacked above. Below 7420 fails, 7400 call ceiling flips back to support, then 7282 week VAL, then 7211 April VAH opens the gap retest with 7160 prev week POC the deeper pull. CPI Tuesday is the override.

The Bracket: Trigger 7420 (week POC, the line the whole week respects). Above 7420 holds the cascade runs 7428 week high, 7475 cluster, 7486 expected top, 7500 air. Below 7420 fails through 7400 call ceiling (now support), 7282 week VAL, 7211 April VAH. Voided by a hot CPI print Tuesday.

29000 the line the rally just punched through, now flipped to weekly support. Above 29000 holds we extend through 29250-29300 cluster into 29500 cap and 29716 expected top with 29750/30000 round-number air above. Below 29000 fails, 28691 May VAH stacks first with 28670 week POC, then 27796 week VAL opens the deeper test with 27622 April VAH the line that has to hold to keep the breakout retest intact. CPI is the override.

The Bracket: Trigger 29000 (week call ceiling, just flipped to support). Above 29000 holds we extend through 29250 cluster, 29500 cap, 29716 expected top, 30000 air. Below 29000 fails through 28691 May VAH, 28670 week POC, 27796 week VAL, 27622 April VAH. Voided by a hot CPI Tuesday breaking 29000 and running to 28670.

95.0 week POC, the line the unwind closed on. Above 95 we work back through the 96 / 97.5 / 98 cluster into the 99-100 ceiling, then 102 prev week POC if 100 breaks. Below 95 fails and 94 / 93 / 92 stacks the staircase, then 90.30 week low cracks and 89.70 April POC opens with 85.70 April VAL the deeper floor. Headline tape runs every day, EIA Wednesday is the only scheduled event.

The Bracket: Trigger 95 (week POC, the line the unwind closed on). Above 95 holds we work back through 96 nearby above, 98 cluster, 100 ceiling, 102 prev week POC. Below 95 fails through 93, 92, 90.30 week low, 89.70 April POC, 85.70 April VAL. Voided by the de-escalation tape reversing either direction with the headline shifting the range.

4733 Friday close sitting between 4717 week POC support and 4739 cluster cap. Above 4739 we work through 4775 week high into 4789 ceiling stacked with 4788 expected top, then 4812 April POC opens with 4844 April VAH and 4917 cycle peak above. Below 4717 fails and 4664 marks the first stop, then 4639/4614 cluster, then 4585 magnet, then 4584 week VAL where the entire week’s bid disappears. Below 4522 April low and the longs that just got paid this week start puking again.

The Bracket: Trigger 4717 (week POC, the floor the rally needs to hold). Above 4717 holds we extend through 4739 cluster, 4775 week high, 4789 ceiling, 4812 April POC. Below 4717 fails through 4664, 4585 magnet, 4584 week VAL, 4522 April low. Voided by a hot CPI Tuesday since that’s gold-bullish and equity-bearish at once and the cross-asset divergence breaks.

The White Van Stuff

ES sits 7421 right above the 7400 call ceiling that just flipped to support and below the 7415 same-day cap. Above 7425 (heavy interest, nearby above) the 7430 / 7450 / 7475 cluster opens the cascade through the 7486 expected top into 7500 / 7525 / 7550 heavy interest above the daily band. Below 7400 the structure flips back to the gap, and 7375 (heavy interest) catches first, then 7351 (today expected low), then 7350 (heavy interest) and 7300 (heavy interest) round-number cluster. Below 7275 (standard floor, all expiry and 0DTE) is where the rally has a real pricing problem. Tuesday’s CPI is the gun.

NQ blew through 29000 call ceiling during the week and now sits 29333 between the 29250 / 29300 interest cluster directly under price and the 29500 same-day cap above. Above 29400 the 29500 cap opens, then 29716 expected top tops the daily band, with 29750 / 30000 round-number heavy interest above as the air pocket. Below 29250 the 29200 / 29100 cluster catches first, then 29000 call ceiling now flipped to support, then 28948 expected low, then 28750 / 28700 heavy interest band. Below 28690 same-day pivot and the structural floor lives way down at 27000 standard floor. The rally extended past the ceiling on momentum that doesn’t care about the gamma map. CPI is the only thing that brings it back.

CL closed 94.91 right at the magnet 94.5 and the week POC. Above 95 the 96 nearby above catches first, then 97.5 / 98 heavy interest pair, then the 100 call ceiling clusters with 100.19 daily expected top and the 99 / 100 same-day caps. Past 100 the 103 heavy interest is the next reach toward the prior week’s 108 high, but that’s two days of strong bid away. Below 94 the 93 heavy interest, 92 heavy interest, then 90.65 expected low and 90 put floor catches at the week low. Below 90 the 89.5 / 87.5 / 87 / 85 staircase opens the deeper structural floor where the longs from prev-month value live.

Gold closed 4733 between the 4739 upside cluster cap directly above and the 4717 week POC support directly below. Above 4739 the 4764 nearby cluster catches first, then the 4775 week high / nearby above, then 4788 expected top and 4789 call ceiling stack on the same line. Past 4789 the 4814 / 4839 heavy interest pair sits in clean air toward the 4917 cycle peak. Below 4733 the 4717 week POC is the immediate support, then 4689 same-day cap (now flipped to floor from above), then 4664 heavy interest, then 4639 / 4614 heavy interest cluster catches. Past 4585 magnet, the 4584 week VAL opens the deeper test and the entire week’s bid disappears.

Lets have a good week. Not ready to put on the bear hat just yet. It’s taking alot for me to sit on my hands and not try to short this thing to 0. I don’t think its time yet. But my eyes are on 26,300-26200. See you tonight for SundayTicks.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

In lighter news, Tonight at 8pm CT we are launching the first official episode of SUNDAYTICKS. Live on Substack, YouTube, X, and Kick. We would love if you joined us for some fun, learning, and some LucidTrading account giveaways.

The Week That Was

April closed as the best month for equities since 2020. ES added 9.85%. NQ added 15.6%. Friday closed both at fresh records. Sixth straight up week on each, longest run since October 2024. The fuel was earnings. 84% of S&P companies have beaten EPS this season, the highest beat rate since Q2 2021, and earnings growth is printing 31% year over year against analyst desks that underwrote 8%. AAPL was Friday’s catalyst. Solid numbers, pulled the tape with it. NVDA and META lagged on the week. The leadership rotates, the index keeps grinding.

Crude was the wild card. Mid-week WTI ripped to $108.50 on Strait of Hormuz headlines, then puked back to $101.94 by Friday on ceasefire chatter. That’s a $6 round trip in three sessions. The supply story isn’t fixed and the headlines flip price 5% on a single tweet. EIA Wednesday gets watched. Anyone who got short crude into the Friday fade is hoping the talks actually produce something this time.

FOMC held 3.5 to 3.75% Wednesday in an 8-4 dissent vote. Four dissents, the most since 1992. Powell’s hot quote was that elevated oil prices “will push up overall inflation.” Translation. If crude doesn’t come back to earth, the Fed isn’t cutting. Year-end odds now sit at 10% chance of a cut and 6% chance of a hike. Pre-FOMC the hike odds were zero. The Fed is telling you they aren’t in a hurry and they’d rather hike into a re-acceleration than cut into one.

ES opened the week at 7186.25 and closed Friday at 7257.50, up 71 points on the week and another 1.0% on top of the prior week’s gain. Week range 7137 to 7301. Week POC built at 7160, value area 7142.50 to 7209.75. Friday hit a new record at 7301 then sold to 7255.50 and grinded back to settle. Inside-day character with sellers above the 7300 round number. The structural shelf is now 50 to 100 points above last week’s value.

NQ opened at 27410.75 and closed Friday at 27837.25, another 426 points of gain on top of last week’s 600. Week POC at 27400, week high 27917 (fresh all-time high), week low 27009.50. Friday was the breakout session and the first retest of the move sat right on April’s old high at 27622. Fifteen of sixteen sessions green on this thing now. Whoever was trying to short the highs got carried out again.

CL opened the week at 96.32, ripped to 108.50 mid-week on Hormuz headlines, then sold to 102.18 by Friday on ceasefire chatter. Week range 95.29 to 108.50, that’s a $13 swing in five sessions. Week POC at 99.90, value area 98.85 to 106.00. Friday was a 3% sustained-down day. The Strait stayed shut, the talks lit up, and crude took its $6 victory lap and gave half of it back.

GC opened the week at 4726.50 and closed Friday at 4623, down $103 on the week. Week range 4522.20 to 4728. Week POC at 4630, value 4553.40 to 4658.10. Sold off as the safety bid leaked. The April peak at 4917 is a lower-high vs the cycle. Friday bounced $30 off the day low which is the only positive thing to say. Three weeks of distribution.

Cross-asset read: Equities are at fresh records, crude is range-bound after a $13 swing, and gold gave back $103. The split between equities and gold (safety bid leaking) is the cleanest divergence on the screen heading into NFP. The crude tape is its own story, and it can flip on a tweet.

Positioning (data as of 2026-04-28). The S&P trader crowd is net short 95,367 contracts going into a 6th up week. They keep getting carried out. Cover risk is squeeze fuel. Gold’s long crowd is loaded at 153,000 net long going into a 2.2% down week. Anyone holding for the geopolitical premium is now back to last week’s value area. Crude positioning is small but the long side is real, 3,500 net long. Nasdaq positioning data didn’t print this week.

Vol: Vol is compressing on equities while crude and gold stay jumpy. Equities believe the rally. Commodities don’t. Sizing rules differ by instrument.

The Calendar

The Map and What I’m Watching

ES Friday hit a new record at 7301 then sold to 7255.50 and grinded back to settle at 7257.50. Textbook test-and-hold. The whole week built between 7142.50 and 7209.75. Above 7273 (Friday POC) and we go retest the highs. Below 7211 (April VAH) and the rally needs a real pullback to reset. The line in the sand is 7160. That’s week POC AND April POC AND the level value spent the most time at all month. Lose 7160 with conviction and 7137 (week low) is in play, then 7079.25 (prev week low) is the next shelf.

NQ broke to fresh all-time highs Friday and held. The Friday low at 27617.75 sits right on April’s high (27622). That’s the breakout retest, the cleanest level in the brief. Hold above 27622 keeps the trend intact. Lose 27622 and the 27453 week VAH is the next shelf, then 27434 (prev wk close), then 27400 (week POC = April POC = the line). Below 27400 the rally has a real problem and 27046 (week VAL) opens the air pocket to 27009 (week low). Above 27917 takes us into uncharted into the 28000 round number.

Crude is binary. Range was 95.29 to 108.50 in five sessions. Friday closed 102.18. Above 103.88 we head back toward 105/106 (where heavy options interest sits) and the week high. Below 99.30 the support runs to 95.29 (week low) then way down to 89.70 (April POC). The 89.70 number is real. That’s where crude lived for most of April before the geopolitical bid kicked in. Watch EIA Wednesday and headline tape all week.

Gold puked from 4732 down to 4522 last week and got bought back to 4623. The 4917 April high is a lower-high vs the cycle. Hold 4597 (Friday low / May low) and we work back toward the 4673 high then 4710 (prev wk VAL). Lose 4597 and the magnet at 4565 catches first, then 4553 (week VAL), then 4522 (week low / April low). Lose 4522 and the long crowd starts puking inventory, because they’ve been long and wrong since the 4917 cycle peak.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. NFP Friday 7:30 CT. The override on every read. Average hourly earnings is the line. Hot wages keep the Fed in hike-watch mode and that flips the rate-cut expectation entirely.

2. AMD Tuesday after-close + Palantir Monday after-close. AMD is the biggest single-name catalyst for NQ this week. Palantir sets the AI-tape tone for the rest of the prints. Don’t carry levered NQ longs into either reaction.

3. NQ 27622 breakout retest. Fresh ATH on Friday, but the Friday low sat right on April’s old high. Hold this and the trend stays clean. Lose it and the breakout isn’t real and the cluster down at 27400 comes into play fast.

4. Crude headline tape. The $6 round trip in three sessions tells you the news path matters more than anything else for CL this week. EIA Wednesday is the only scheduled event but the headline tape runs all week.

5. GC 4522 holds. The week low and April low are the same number. Lose 4522 with sellers behind it and the long crowd that’s been holding for the geopolitical premium starts puking. Above 4750 (prev wk POC) is the level they need back to feel alive.

The White Van Stuff

The gamma is in the room with us. On equities the options structure is positively setup. Net dealer hedging exposure on S&P jumped 46% week over week. They’re adding interest right at current price, biggest concentrations at 7245 and 7250. Below 7230 the dealer interest dropped meaningfully. That side just got cleared out. Translation. The market rebuilt its options structure ABOVE the rally. Above 7300 (the all-expiry call ceiling) you’re into a chase. Below 7170 (the magnet level) and downside opens up.

NQ saw the same +40% week. Heavy interest stacked at 27800/27750/27760. The 27710 level (the prior call ceiling) just lost a big chunk of dealer hedging. That’s the level that broke. Above 27800 sits the new same-day cap. Above 28000 is where the all-expiry call ceiling lives. The structural floor is way down at 25550 (the magnet), but the immediate floor on heavy positioning is 27500.

Crude options are messy. Structural ceiling at 110, structural floor at 85. Heavy interest stacked at 105/105.5/106 on the upside (the area where Hormuz news pushes hit) and at 101/102 (right at spot). Standard floor at 100, same-day cap at 110. The magnet level is way down at 88.25, where price would gravitate without geopolitical noise. We’re nowhere near calm pricing yet.

Gold ceiling sits at 4784.91, floor at 4436. Heavy interest at 4685 (just above current), 4575, 4655. The magnet at 4565.60 sits just below Friday’s low. If gold loses 4597 the magnet is the obvious next pull. Same-day cap at 4735, the level that caps any short-term bounce.

The Week’s Plan

ES: Above 7301 (Friday/May high) and the chase extends with 7323 as the expected top, then 7350 and 7375 where heavy interest stacks. Hold 7257.50 (Friday close) keeps the trend. Lose 7211 (April VAH) and 7194.50 (prev week close) is the first shelf, then 7170 (magnet level), then 7160 (the line, week POC = April POC). Below 7160 with conviction and 7137 (week low) is in play. NFP Friday is the override on every read.

NQ: Above 27917 takes us into the 28000 round number where the call ceiling stacks, with 28172 as the expected top. Hold 27622 (Friday low / April high / breakout retest) and the trend stays clean. Lose 27622 and 27500 is the next shelf, then 27434 (prev week close), then 27400 (week POC = April POC = the line). Below 27400 the rally has a real problem and 27046 / 27009 are the air pocket. AMD AMC Tuesday is the biggest single-name catalyst this week. Don’t carry size into it without a plan.

CL: No directional lean. Range is 95.29 to 108.50 and price is in the middle. Above 103.88 we work back toward 105/106 (heavy interest cluster) and the 108.50 week high. Below 99.30 (Friday low) the downside stack pulls to 95.29 (week low), then 89.70 (April POC where crude actually lived all month). EIA Wednesday and headline risk all week. The setup is reactive, not predictive.

GC: Hold 4597 (Friday low / May low) and we work back toward 4673 (Friday high), 4710 (prev wk VAL), 4732 (prev wk close), and 4750 (prev wk POC) is the level the long crowd needs back. Lose 4597 and the magnet at 4565.60 catches first, then 4553 (week VAL), then 4522 (week low / April low). Below 4522 the long crowd starts puking. If equities keep ripping AND ceasefire holds, gold stays heavy.

Lets have some fun this week. And Bulls? Maybe let the sellers win for at least a session or two.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

My vibes going into this week:

Last Week

The week was semis and tech going straight vertical. Equities pushed up on Trump extending the Iran ceasefire indefinitely, then pulled back Friday when the Pakistan talks started looking shaky. Crude didn’t get the memo. The Strait of Hormuz stayed shut, both sides traded ship-seizure accusations, and WTI rallied 7% on the week into the weekend. Gold did the opposite. Friday closed gold at 4722. The asset that was supposed to be the safety hedge gave back $195 in five days, while the asset that was supposed to fade on peace ripped higher. That’s the whole tell. The market is pricing the deal but the physical oil tape isn’t.

ES opened the week at 7102.50 and closed Friday at 7194.75. Range was 7079 to 7189, basically a 110-point chop above last week’s value. Week POC built at 7155, value area 7126-7167. Friday was an inside day. The story is consolidation just under last Friday’s 7185 high. Either we break out or we slide back into the prior week’s value.

NQ opened at 26599 and closed Friday at 27435.00, another 600 points of gain on top of last week’s 1500. Week POC at 26720, week high 27363, week low 26535. Friday was a trend-up day that printed the week’s high right at the close. Fourteen out of fifteen sessions green on this thing. Whoever was trying to short the highs got carried out again.

CL opened the week at 88.15, ground higher all week, and closed Friday at 94.40. Week range 85.45 to 98.39. Week POC at 87.40, value area 85.69-93.93. The week’s narrative is the war premium reflating because nothing actually got resolved. The Strait stayed closed. That’s $6.25 of gain on the week, 7.1%. Closes the door on last week’s “peace trade” entirely.

GC opened the week at 4811 and closed Friday at 4722.30, down $157 on the week. Week range 4672 to 4854. Week POC built at 4750, value 4694-4798. Friday was a sustained-down day, the kind of session where you can feel sellers leaning. The recent swing high two weeks ago was 4917, which was already a lower high vs March’s $5,338 cycle peak. We are now $200 below the swing high and $600 below the March top. Gold has been in a downtrend the whole month.

Cross-asset read: The split between equities/gold (peace-positioned) and crude (war-positioned) is the cleanest divergence on the screen. Either crude is wrong and rolls over, or the other two are wrong and reprice. Do we figure out who’s lying heading into a FOMC and Mag7 week?

Positioning (week ending April 21, released Friday): As of last Tuesday, the trader crowd was net short 104,083 contracts on S&P. That data is six sessions stale across a week NQ added 600 points. Either they covered into the Friday rally and the squeeze fuel is gone, or they didn't and Wednesday's earnings reaction lights the next leg. The next COT release Friday May 2 settles it.

Vol: VIX is 19.31. Slightly elevated from where it was two weeks ago but nowhere near priced for what’s about to land.

The Calendar

Wednesday and Thursday are the entire week. Powell, four of the Mag7, Core PCE, GDP, and Apple all stacked inside thirty hours. Thursday alone is roughly 20% of the S&P 500 by market cap reporting earnings reactions into Core PCE.

Monday 4/27: Dallas Fed Manufacturing 9:30 AM CT. Light tape ahead of the main event.

Tuesday 4/28: Consumer Confidence 9:00 AM CT. ADP weekly 7:15 AM CT. API Crude after close.

Wednesday 4/29: Durable Goods 7:30 AM CT, GDP Q1 advance 7:30 AM CT, EIA Crude 9:30 AM CT, FOMC rate decision 1:00 PM CT, Powell press conference 1:30 PM CT. After the close: Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Visa.

Thursday 4/30: Core PCE 7:30 AM CT, Personal Income, Jobless Claims, Employment Cost Index 7:30 AM CT. Caterpillar and Mastercard before open. Chicago PMI 8:45 AM CT. Apple after the close.

Friday 5/1: ISM Manufacturing 9:00 AM CT. Baker Hughes rig count.

Weekly Structure

ES

ES has built a new shelf 50 points above last week’s POC and is sitting under the prior week’s all-time high zone. The first real defense is 7126 weekly VAL. Below that, 7079 weekly low and 7060 prior week POC are stacked within 20 points of each other. That’s the line that decides whether the breakout sticks. April POC at 7162 is essentially today’s price. Above 7189 and 7200 is open air, with 7250 as the next round number target.

NQ

NQ closed Friday at 27435, $70 above the week’s high. Globex on Sunday will tell you whether the breakout extends or whether the gap-up was the exhaustion print. First downside acceptance is 27010 weekly VAH, then 26720 weekly POC. Below 26535 weekly low and 26480 prior week POC sit inside 60 points of each other. That cluster is where any pullback gets bought or it doesn’t. Below it, the next real shelf is 25317 prior week VAL, $2000 lower. The waterfall is steep on the downside because the week’s value built so tight.

CL

Crude closed Friday at 94.40, sitting right at week VAH and just below the round 100 level that capped the week. Above 98.40 and 100 is the next test, with 105 (last week’s intraday high) as the upside cascade target. Below 93.93 weekly VAH the conversation moves fast back to 87.40 weekly POC, where the bulk of the week’s volume built. Below 85.45 weekly low and 84 prior week close sit inside a dollar of each other. That’s where the war premium fully reverses. Last Friday’s 78.97 low is the floor that matters if 85 fails.

GC

Gold is below week VAL going into Sunday Globex and well off the cycle peak. March’s $5,338 high is the actual top. Last week’s $4,917 was a lower high inside the broader downtrend. Friday close at 4722 is sitting in no-man’s-land between week VAL at 4694 and April month VAL at 4714. Below 4694 and 4672 weekly low is the line. Below 4672 there is no real volume shelf until April’s deeper range. Above the 4750 weekly POC and 4798 weekly VAH is where the bid would need to show up to argue the down move is done. The $5,338 peak is a different conversation entirely.

The White Van Stuff

The options market is pricing this week like it’s a normal week. It is not a normal week. The expected ranges and ceiling levels say one thing and the FOMC may say something different.

ES options: The upside is layered with cap structure. Same-day cap is 7225 with the upside ceiling at 7250 right above it. Above the ceiling, heavy interest stacks at 7255, 7264 expected high, 7275, 7300, and 7325. Five levels in 100 points. That is where any FOMC-driven gap up runs into a wall. Below price, the same-day magnet sits at 7130 and the expected low is 7126, with another heavy interest cluster at 7100-7103. Standard floor 7000 with a heavy interest level just below at 6998. Magnet level at 7045 is the in-between pivot if 7100 fails.

NQ options: Same-day cap is 27700 with a same-day floor at 26600 and a same-day magnet at 26790. Upside ceiling is also 27700. Expected daily range is 27080 to 27790. Heavy interest stacks at 27672, 27690, 28075, 28049, 26826. Nearest above are 27500 and 27750. Nearby below are 27250 and 27400. The 27672-27700 zone is the test. If buyers push through that, 28000 is the round-number target. If sellers defend it, the 27250 zone is the first real shelf.

CL options: Upside ceiling is 100, same-day cap also 100, standard floor 85, magnet at 88. Expected daily range is 89.28 to 99.52. Heavy interest at 90, 95, 89.50, 94, 99. The whole structure agrees the move is binary at 100. Above 100 with force and the next levels are 101 and 102. Below 89.50 the cascade goes 88 to 87.50 to 85.50 to 85.

GC options: Upside ceiling is 4982, standard floor is 4633, magnet at 4718 sits right at Friday’s close. Same-day cap is 4783 and same-day floor is 4633. Expected daily range is 4658 to 4790. Heavy interest stacks at 4733, 4683, 4688, 4658, 4673. The whole picture says gold is pinned between 4658 and 4790. Below 4633 and the put crowd starts paying attention. Above 4790 and the bounce trade gets oxygen.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. NQ Thursday gap on Mag7 reactions. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta all print Wednesday after the close. Whatever the aggregate read is, NQ gaps to it Thursday morning before Core PCE. That gap is the cleanest read on whether the leadership trade is intact.

2. Sunday 5pm CT Globex open. First read on whether the weekend headlines hold or flip again. The crude tape will tell you fastest.

3. NQ 27010 weekly VAH and 26720 weekly POC. Fourteen of fifteen sessions green is a streak that ends. If the earnings reaction sells off, those are the two acceptance levels on the cascade lower.

4. GC 4694 weekly VAL. Below it, gold has no volume shelf for a long way down. The cleanest read on FOMC tone in real time Wednesday afternoon.

5. CL 93-94 zone. Right where the week closed. Either crude breaks 90 lower and confirms the peace trade, or holds and drives 100 mid-week. The headline-risk variable lives here.

The Week’s Plan

ES: If Monday opens above 7155 weekly POC, look for 7167 VAH reclaim into the 7189 week high. If it loses 7126 weekly VAL on volume, the 7079/7060 cluster is your downside test. Above 7250 ceiling is where any FOMC gap-up runs into the layered cap (7255, 7264, 7275, 7300, 7325). Wednesday afternoon overrides anything that happened in the morning.

NQ: Above 27435 Globex print and the breakout extends, with the 27672/27700 ceiling as the first real test and 28000 round number above. Below 27010 weekly VAH and 26720 POC is in play. Below 26535/26480 cluster the leadership trade is unwound. The streak ends eventually. Don’t be short into Wednesday afternoon and don’t be fully levered long into Wednesday night.

CL: Above 94 with continuation and 100 cap is on. Above 100 with force and 105 is back in play. Below 90 and the peace trade reasserts, with 87.40 weekly POC and 78.97 prior week low as the cascade. Sunday Globex tells you which side.

GC: Below 4694 weekly VAL and there’s no shelf for $200. Above 4750 weekly POC and the down move is paused, with 4798 VAH and 4854 week high as the reclaim cascade. Thursday morning prints the cleanest FOMC read on the board.

It ain’t about how hard you hit. It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. That’s how winning is done.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

Friday I didn’t trade. I got off a plane midday and just laughed at the Hold my Beer the market decided to do. We talked last week about it looking like a lockout rally. We talked about how I didn’t think it made any sense to call a top. We talked about just when you think its getting silly, it can and will get even more ridiculous. Anyway, we watched ES print fresh all-time highs while crude bled 11% in ninety minutes on the Strait of Hormuz reopening news, and I honest to god thought we were getting another clean rally into the weekend and this week. Then, on Saturday tensions boiled over and flipped the whole plan. Globex in a few hours and everyone knows which way it gaps. Good luck with that.

Last Week

Three acts. Monday opened to a blockade headline and apparent talks collapse. CL spiked to $105 intraday, equities gapped down, and both reversed by the close. Tuesday’s PPI came in soft and the market decided it was going higher. Wednesday and Thursday were grind sessions. Friday Iran’s foreign minister declared the corridor “completely open,” S&P and NQ printed fresh ATHs, crude flushed to $78.97 inside a single session. Act three lasted twelve hours before the headlines reversed Saturday.

ES opened Monday at 6780, closed Friday at 7161.50. The Monday gap got filled by Tuesday lunch and the rest of the week was a staircase. 394 points of range, 306 of gain. Week POC built at 7060 where Wednesday and Thursday conversed. Friday cleared the week VAH at 7098 and the old ATH like neither mattered.

NQ gapped down to 24904 Monday, closed Friday at 26825.50. 1920 points of range, 1544 of gain, thirteen consecutive green sessions. Tech led on the input-cost disinflation tape. I got stopped out of a long at 25300 Tuesday morning before it ripped 1500 points. Paperhanded the move of the year again. Classic Nick.

CL was the asset of the week. Monday 105 high, Friday 78.97 low, close 82.59. $26.66 of range in five sessions. 14.5% dump. War premium went poof. The weekly profile never built a clean value area.

GC ground up all week, printed a new ATH at $4917.70 Friday, faded to close $4879.60. The fade was the “okay the deal is real” print. Then the deal wasn’t real. Monthly VWAP sits $110 below.

Cross-asset read: equities and crude closed Friday pricing the deal holding. Gold closed fading from its ATH like the safety bid was dying. The weekend news flipped the whole setup. Gold was the asset that had the right read. Equities and crude are going into the Globex open offside.

Weekly Structure

ES

ES is 235 points above the prior month’s POC and 200 above the prior week’s VAH. Everything in the right column is dead weight unless we reject back into the prior week’s range. The first real support is 7060 weekly POC. Wednesday and Thursday built value there before Friday’s breakout. That’s the nearest level anything defends.

NQ

NQ reclaimed March’s range on Tuesday and never retested. The 26480 weekly POC lines up with 26500 round-number energy. Below that, week VAL at 25736 is the first real shelf. Below 25736, prior week POC at 25030 is where the last durable acceptance lived.

CL

The weekly volume profile on crude didn’t produce a clean read this week. Here’s what the daily action gave us instead.

Top to bottom. 105.63 was Monday’s intraday high. Friday’s low was 78.97. The weekly VWAP at 87.51 sits $5 above Friday’s close. Structure rejected the 90-95 zone all week. Prior week low at $91 is the first upside reclaim level. $73 is the longer-term floor.

GC

New ATH Friday, $40 fade into the close. Weekly VWAP +1 stddev lands in the 4900 zone where Friday’s high printed. Above 4917, open air. Below $4785, monthly VWAP at 4770 is the first support. Below the VWAP, April’s POC at 4735 is where the bulk of the month’s value lives.

The White Van Stuff

Options positioning was wrong-footed all week. Upside ceilings on equities at 7100 and 26000 got run over Friday by 60 and 800 points, respectively.

ES options (all-exp): Upside ceiling 7100, broken. Standard floor 6500, multiple sessions below. Expected daily range 1.4%. Monday band 7060-7262. Last expected low level was 6996.

NQ options (all-exp): Upside ceiling 26000, broken. Standard floor 24000. Expected daily range 1.6%. Monday band 26400-27250. Magnet at 24740 is a 2000-point round-trip target if momentum fails.

GC options (all-exp): Upside ceiling $5000. Standard floor $4400. 1D Max Friday was $4952, essentially the week high. Expected move implies $60-80 daily.

Positioning (April 14 data): The trader crowd on S&P was betting lower going into a 306-point rally. They got their face ripped off. Nasdaq same story, bigger miss. The crude guys had been stacking longs right before the war premium fully unwound. Whoever held through the $14 flush is licking their wounds. Gold’s long side is still loaded and Friday’s ATH paid them back. Tuesday’s release shows who got flushed and who doubled down.

Vol: VIX is 18.36. With S&P +306 from that print, probably lower now. Everybody was positioned for a calm week and the overnight punished them.

Momentum and Context

VP migration this week was the biggest of the month. ES POC 6815 to 7060, a 245-point shift. NQ POC 25030 to 26480, a 1450-point shift. When value moves that far on one storyline in one week, the next week is either continuation or the sharpest reversal of the year. Nothing in between.

Yields fell in sympathy. 10Y 4.26%, 2Y 3.76% as of Tuesday. Both down 7-10 bps on the week. The curve liked the idea of cheaper oil.

Rally is broadening. Also means everybody’s long the same thing.

Swing Setups

1. CL long on reclaim of 90

Friday’s 78.97 is likely the monthly low if weekend news sticks. Monday base case is crude gapping back toward 90 (prior week low). Reclaim of 90 puts 93.40 (month POC) and 98 (prior week POC) as the upside cascade. Wrong if Pakistan talks actually produce something and ships start moving for real. Then CL breaks 78.97 and 73 is the longer-term target.

2. ES pullback to 7060 weekly POC

If Globex gaps ES down $40-60, 7060 is where the week’s value lives and is the first defense line. Two days of acceptance above 7060 keeps the breakout intact. Below 6940 (week VAL) and the rally is done. Mean-reversion buy into value.

3. GC breakout

Monday opens with escalation pricing, GC takes out 4917 and 5000 is the first round number above. Fades below $4785 and monthly VWAP at 4770 is first support. Or it chops 4800-4900 all week because talks produce fog.

What I’m Watching This Week

1. Sunday 5pm CT Globex open. First market read on the weekend headlines.

2. CL 90-91. Prior week low. Above with force means premium is reflating. Below means the overnight didn’t stick.

3. ES 7060 and NQ 26480. Week POCs. First acceptance levels on any pullback.

4. NQ’s thirteen-session green streak. Mean-reversion risk. First down close is the tell that the momentum trade is done.

The Week’s Plan

ES: 7161 close, Friday high 7185.75. Hold above 7060 and 7185 is the first target with 7200 and 7250 as open air. Break 7060 and 6940 is the next shelf, below that 6815 (prior week POC) is where real support lives. Below 6815 the rally structure is unwound. Size small into Globex. Sunday range will be wide.

NQ: 26825 close, Friday high 26884.75. Hold 26480 and 26884 then 27000 are the upside cascade. Break 26480 and 25736 (week VAL) is first, below that 25030 (prior week POC) is where the last durable acceptance lived. Below 25030 and leader status is gone.

CL: 82.59 close. Above 90 with force and 93.40 (month POC) then 98 (prior week POC) are in play, with 105 as the Monday high reference. Break 78.97 and 73 (pre-war) is the longer-term floor. No structural level to defend until the first $5 of Globex move tells you the side.

GC: 4879 close, ATH 4917.70. Above 4917 and 5000 is the next round number. Below 4800 and the monthly VWAP at 4770 is the first shelf, below the VWAP April’s POC at 4735 and VAL at 4685 are where the month’s value lives.

Let’s have a good week. Be careful. Don’t let the mythical window of weakness get you.

We can't have anyone freak out out there, okay? We've got to keep our composure! We've come too far. There's too much to lose!

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.

Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

Last week the truce gave us the best equity week since November. This weekend it died. If you’re reading this Sunday night, you already know what Globex is about to do.

The Week That Was

Tuesday’s truce changed everything. Iran agreed to safe passage through the Strait. Crude went from $113 to $94 in a single session, the biggest drop since COVID. The equity market took one look at lower energy costs and bought everything. Airlines ripped 10-12%. Tech led because lower energy flows straight to margins. The S&P had its best week since November, up 3.6%. Nasdaq up 4.7%.

Then it all fell apart over the weekend.

ES gapped up Tuesday and never looked back. 167 handles in one session. Consolidated in the mid-6800s for the rest of the week. Three overlapping POCs at 6854-6863 by Friday. The market found value and sat on it. Weekly range 6567-6888. Closed at 6869. Still below March’s close of 6927 and March’s POC at 6967. The gap from March isn’t filled. And now with the blockade announcement, it might not fill for a while.

NQ led the move. 703 points on Tuesday. Closed the week at 25324, above March’s high of 25318. ES hasn’t done that yet. When the Nasdaq reclaims last month and the S&P doesn’t, tech is driving. That divergence mattered going into the weekend. It matters more now because NQ has the most to give back if the rally unwinds.

CL cratered from $113 to $91 at the week’s low. Weekly POC at 98, value area spanning $14 from 91 to 106. That’s not a market, that’s a hostage negotiation. CL closed Friday at 95.63, below the POC. Even after the crash there’s $23 of war premium relative to the pre-war $73. Brent spot cargos were already trading above $120 because it takes months to restart tanker traffic even with a truce. Now there’s no truce and there’s a blockade on top. Crude is gapping higher tonight.

GC caught the safety bid to 4888 then faded into Friday, closing at 4771. Below the weekly POC at 4848. That Friday fade was the market pricing in the deal holding. It’s not holding anymore. Gold catches a bid tonight.

Poor one out for the speculatooooors. Apparently, they were positioned for lower equities going into Tuesday, got their face ripped off on 280 handles of rally, and now the deal is dead. If you were short crude going into the weekend after last week’s 16% crash, you’re about to find out what a blockade does to oil prices. Gold specs are massively long and just watched their position fade all week. That fade is over.

Equity vol was compressing all week. Crude vol was already through the roof at the equivalent of $11 daily moves. The vol divergence between equities and crude was the truce in a single chart. That chart just broke.

The Week Ahead

Tuesday 4/14: NFIB. PPI at 7:30 AM CT. Goolsbee, Barr, Collins speak.

Wednesday 4/15: Empire State Manufacturing. Import Prices. EIA crude inventories at 9:30 AM CT. Beige Book at 1:00 PM CT. Bowman speaks.

Thursday 4/16: Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM CT. Philly Fed Manufacturing. Industrial Production.

Friday 4/17: Barkin and Waller speak. Baker Hughes rig count.

The blockade overrides all of it. Any headline from Tehran, Washington, or the Pentagon moves all four instruments simultaneously.

The Map and What I’m Watching

ES

Three sessions built volume at 6854-6863. Value migrated up 250 points from the prior week’s POC at 6610. The weekly profile is one-time-framing higher with the POC at 6815 and value area 6688-6887. April’s monthly POC is still down at 6620, monthly VAH at 6676. ES is extended above April’s value area by 180 points.

March traded 6894-6968 with POC at 6967. ES closed Friday at 6869, still 60 points below March’s close of 6927. We’re back in the range from hell. The March value area (6894-6968) is the next bracket above if ES can get through the week high.

March POC       6967.00  |  Week POC         6815.00
March close     6927.00  |  Week VAL         6688.00
March low       6894.00  |  April POC        6620.00
Week high       6888.00  |  Prev week POC    6610.00
Friday POC      6858.00  |  April VAL        6503.75

Above 6888 (week high/VAH) ES enters March’s range. 6894 (March low) is the first test, then 6927 (March close), then 6967 (March POC) is the full fill. Below 6858 (Friday’s POC cluster) the first volume is at 6815 (week POC). Below 6815 there’s air to 6688 (week VAL). Below 6688, the next volume is at 6610 (prev week POC). Below 6610 the monthly profile takes over and 6504 (April VAL) is the floor.

NQ

Value migrated 880 points from prev week POC at 24150 to this week’s POC at 25030. Two sessions of POCs at 25300-25301 established value at the top of the range. NQ closed at 25324, above March’s high of 25318. ES hasn’t done that yet. NQ is already back inside March’s range (25010-25318). That’s the bracket.

The week of March 30 value area (23659-24348, POC 24150) is the pullback zone if this unwinds. Three timeframes built volume at 24150. That level matters.

Week high       25386.00  |  Week POC         25030.00
March high      25318.00  |  Week VAL         24909.00
Friday POC      25300.00  |  Mar 30 wk VAH    24348.25
March POC       25164.00  |  Mar 30 wk POC    24150.00
March low       25010.00  |  April POC        24200.00

Above 25386 (week high) and accepting, 25500 is the next area. NQ is already inside March’s range, so the March POC at 25164 and March low at 25010 are the levels to watch on a pullback. Below 25300 (Friday POC), the first real volume is at 25030 (week POC). That 25000-25030 cluster is the dip. Below 24909 (week VAL), air to 24740. Below that the staircase is 24348 (week of March 30 VAH), 24150 (triple-timeframe POC), 23941 (week low).

CL

The weekly profile has a $26 range (91-117) and a POC at 98. Value area 91-106. CL closed Friday at 95.63, below the POC. The prior week’s POC was 102. Value migrated down $4 on the week, but the range expanded massively.

Prev week POC   102.00  |  Friday POC       98.50
Month POC        99.00  |  Week POC         98.00
Friday close     95.63  |  Week VAL         91.17
Thursday low     95.51  |  Week low         91.05

98 is the line. It’s the week POC. Above 98 and accepting, 99 (month POC) then 102 (prev week POC) are the targets. Above 106 (week VAH) we’re back in the pre-crash range. Below 95, the 91 area is the week low and week VAL. Below 91, no volume until the mid-80s.

GC

Gold rallied $262 on the week to 4888 then faded into Friday, closing at 4771, well below the weekly POC at 4848. The monthly profile has POC at 4735 and VAH at 4826. GC is inside the monthly value area.

Week high       4888.00  |  Month POC        4735.00
Week POC        4848.00  |  Prev week VAH    4720.20
Week VAH        4855.30  |  Month VAL        4685.50
Monthly VWAP    4743.97  |  Prev week POC    4620.00
Week VAL        4704.60  |  Week low         4626.20

Above 4848 (week POC) and accepting, 4888 (week high) then 4900 are the targets. Above 4900, the 5000 area is the next volume. Below 4735 (monthly POC), support at 4705 (week VAL) then 4685 (monthly VAL). Below 4685, the prior week POC at 4620 is the floor.

The White Van Stuff

The options stuff is in the room with us. And right now, it’s all about to get repriced.

ES: The ceiling where call sellers were stacked at 6900 doesn’t matter if we’re gapping below it. The put floor where buyers piled in is way down at 6500. Same-day interest was concentrated at 6850 and 6875 on Friday. Those levels become the battle zone if ES gaps down to the low 6800s. The vol environment was calm going into the weekend. It won’t be Monday morning.

NQ: Call ceiling at 25500, put floor at 24000. The options market was pricing daily moves of about 25000-25570. Heavy same-day interest at 25300 and 25400. If NQ gaps below 25300, those same-day levels become resistance instead of support.

CL: Ceiling at 100, floor at 90. The options market was pricing $11 daily windows. If crude gets above 100, the call sellers at 100 start covering and it accelerates. Below 90, same thing in the other direction with put covering.

GC: Ceiling at 5000, floor at 4400. Heavy interest around 4750-4810. Above 4848, the 4900-5000 zone is where the next concentration of interest sits. Below 4735, less resistance to the downside until 4400.

The whole positioning picture from Friday is stale. Everything gets repriced at the open.

The Week’s Plan

ES: 6858 is the near-term anchor. Three sessions built volume there. If ES holds above it and buyers build above 6888 (week high/VAH), we enter March’s range. 6894 (March low) is the first test, 6927 (March close), 6967 (March POC) is the full fill. If 6858 breaks, 6815 (week POC) is the first volume. Below 6815 there’s air to 6688 (week VAL). Below 6688, the next real volume is 6610 (prev week POC). Below 6610, the April monthly profile takes over: 6620 (April POC), 6504 (April VAL). That’s the full staircase down.

NQ: 25300 is value. Two sessions voted on it. NQ is already inside March’s range (25010-25318). If it holds and builds above 25386 (week high), 25500 is the target. If 25300 breaks, March POC at 25164 is the first reference inside the range. Below that, 25030 (week POC) and the 25000 cluster is the dip. Below 24909 (week VAL), air to 24740. Below that the staircase is 24348 (week of March 30 VAH), 24150 (triple-timeframe POC), 23941 (week low), 23667 (April VAL). NQ migrated 880 points in a week. If it gives any of that back, the moves will be fast.

CL: 98 is the week POC. Above 98 and accepting, 99 (month POC) then 102 (prev week POC). Above 106 (week VAH) we’re back in the pre-crash range. Below 95, the 91 area is the week low and week VAL. Below 91, no volume until the mid-80s. The options market was pricing $11 daily swings before the weekend. Quarter size.

GC: 4848 (week POC) is the line. Above it, 4888 (week high), 4900, then 5000 (call ceiling). Below 4735 (monthly POC), 4705 (week VAL), 4685 (monthly VAL), 4620 (prev week POC). GC is inside the monthly value area right now. Watch which direction it breaks out of that range for the signal on everything else.

*Given the weekend headlines, some of these levels may get invalidated quickly during tonight’s Globex session. If the map changes significantly I’ll post an update.*

Protect yourself at all times. Survive and advance.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with [Lucid Trading](https://lucidtrading.com/ref/nick/). Use my link or code NICK.

*Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.*

Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

Last week was a 300-handle round trip in ES. Opened the week at 6380 on Monday, flushed to 6353 in the first session, then spent the rest of the week clawing back. Tuesday ripped to 6654 and stalled one tick below the prior week’s high. Wednesday and Thursday rotated inside Tuesday’s range. Closed the week at 6604. The weekly profile is a hammer: POC 6610, VAH 6654, VAL 6468. That’s a wide value area, 186 handles, but the close above POC tells you buyers won the week. Volume was 1.85M contracts on Thursday alone. People were in the pool.

NQ did the same thing louder. Opened 23190, bottomed at 22962 on Monday, ripped 1400 handles to 24348 by Tuesday, and settled the week at 24130. Weekly POC 24150, VAH 24348, VAL 23659. The monthly open at 23926 flipped from overhead problem to floor. NQ closing above it is the one thing that matters structurally.

Crude was the headline and the reason for all of it. CL opened the week at 102.60, Monday dropped to 96.50 on the early equity flush, then headlines hit. Iran, Strait of Hormuz, and crude went vertical. Thursday’s RTH session printed 97.50 to 113.97. Sixteen handles. That’s not a typo. Weekly POC only at 102 because the bulk of last week’s volume was in the low 100s before the Thursday explosion.

Gold ran from 4520 to 4826 and reversed $126 off the highs on Thursday, closing at 4699. Weekly POC 4620, VAH 4720, VAL 4527. The safe haven bid got crowded, took profits, and is now sitting at 4700 waiting for the next catalyst.

What I’m taking into this week: the equity V-reversal is real but unconfirmed. ES needs to take out 6654 (last week’s high) to confirm it. Crude is the variable that moves everything else. Gold is digesting.

2. THE WEEK AHEAD

CALENDAR
Mon 4/7   7:30am   Trade Balance (Feb)          LOW
Wed 4/9   1:00pm   FOMC Minutes (March)         HIGH
Thu 4/10  7:30am   Initial Jobless Claims       MED
Thu 4/10  7:30am   PPI (March)                  HIGH
Fri 4/11  7:30am   CPI (March)                  HIGH
All Week            Fed Speakers                 MED

Back-loaded week. Monday and Tuesday are light. Wednesday FOMC minutes will show how the Fed is thinking about $110 crude and tariff pass-through with rates at 3.5-3.75%. Thursday PPI, Friday CPI. If CPI comes in hot because of energy, the “hold steady” story gets harder to tell.

The weekend wildcard is Iran. Ceasefire talks are active. A framework would crater crude and rip equities. A breakdown sends crude toward 120 and we retest the lows.

3. WEEKLY STRUCTURE

ES

Last: 6630 | Monthly Open: 6572 | Weekly VWAP: 6617

Wednesday’s last RTH session was a rotation day. 140-handle range, opened at 6622, dropped to 6504, ripped back to 6644, closed at 6624. The profile shows POC at 6610, VAH 6634, VAL 6564. Classic balanced day, close right at the POC.

Sunday Globex opened at 6621, traded up to 6651, sitting at 6630. Overnight profile is building with the POC at 6626, a massive volume cluster: 17,251 contracts at the 6626 level. Overnight value area is tight, 6615 to 6637. Price is above the session VWAP at 6617.

The monthly profile for April has POC at 6610, VAH 6639, VAL 6593. ES is above the monthly open at 6572 and trading in the upper half of April’s value. Constructive.

The histogram tells the story. Two distributions: a lower cluster at 6576-6584 (RTH activity from Thursday’s flush and recovery) and the dominant overnight cluster at 6622-6632. The LVN at 6592 (only 260 contracts) is the gap between them. If price drops through 6592, it falls fast into the 6580 area. If it holds above 6615, the overnight POC is the magnet.

ES LEVELS
Prior Week High     6654   Resistance. The confirmation level.
Weekly VAH          6638   Current upper value boundary
Overnight POC/HVN   6626   17K contracts. Magnet.
Session VWAP        6617   Weekly anchor
Prior Session POC   6610   Multi-day POC, building significance
Monthly VAL         6593   April’s lower value bound
LVN Speed Gap       6592   260 contracts. Fast through here.
RTH HVN Cluster     6580   Volume support from Thursday
Monthly Open        6572   Must hold for bulls.
Prior Week VAL      6468   Deep support

The levels I actually care about this week: 6654 above (confirm or reject), 6610 in the middle (multi-session POC, this is the line), and 6572 below (monthly open, lose this and the V-reversal is done).

NQ

Last: 24311 | Monthly Open: 23926 | Weekly VWAP: 24215

NQ is the stronger of the two. Already trading above last week’s VAH at 24348, pressing the highs. Wednesday’s session was an outside day, 600-handle range, POC at 24150. That 24150 level is showing up everywhere: it’s the Wednesday POC, the weekly POC, and the monthly POC. Three timeframes converging on the same price. That’s a level.

Sunday overnight has POC at 24308 with a fat 5,238-contract cluster at 24305. Value area 24146 to 24375. The RTH profile from Thursday shows two separate distributions: one at 24055-24075 (early session selling) and another at 24200-24220 (afternoon recovery). The LVN between them at 24090-24120 is the speed gap.

NQ LEVELS
Prior Week High     24348   Resistance, already testing
Weekly VAH          24375   Current upper value
Overnight POC/HVN   24308   5.2K contracts
Session VWAP        24215   Weekly anchor
Multi-TF POC        24150   Wed + Week + Month POC. The level.
Monthly VAL         24031   April lower value
Monthly Open        23926   Bull/bear line for April
RTH HVN             24055   Thursday early session volume
LVN Speed Gap       24090   Thin. Fast through here.

NQ in positive gamma means moves get dampened, more range-bound. ES in negative gamma means swings and follow-through. If they start diverging, follow whichever one is leading.

CL

Last: 110 | Monthly Open: 101.72 | Weekly VWAP: 111.50

Crude is still digesting Thursday. That was a 16.47 handle range in one RTH session, 97.50 to 113.97. The weekly POC from last week is at 102 because most of the volume traded before the breakout. Current session value area is 109.52 to 112.30 with POC at 111. Price is sitting right in the middle of value at 110.

IV is at 112.65%. That’s crisis pricing. The expected daily move is $8.

CL LEVELS
Thursday High       113.97   The blow-off top
VWAP +1 stddev      113.00   Upper range boundary
Weekly VAH          112.30   Current upper value
Session POC         111.00   Magnet
ETH POC             110.00   Overnight anchor
Weekly VAL          109.52   Current lower value
Monthly VWAP -1σ    100.00   Deep support if headlines reverse

Crude is headline-driven right now. The profile and levels matter less than whatever comes out of the Middle East. Size accordingly.

GC

Last: 4700 | Monthly Open: 4698 | Weekly VWAP: 4682

Gold closed Thursday at 4699 after a $245 range day. Opened at 4783, tagged 4826, collapsed to 4580, and recovered to 4699. Exhaustion candle. The weekly POC from last week was 4620, and the current session has POC at 4717 with value 4661 to 4725.

The histogram shows two clusters: a broad base from 4656-4688 (1,500-1,700 contracts per bucket) and a spike at 4716-4718 (1,969 contracts). Price is sitting between them at 4700. The monthly open is right here at 4698. Gold is deciding.

GC LEVELS
Thursday High       4826   The blow-off
Session HVN         4717   Overnight volume cluster
Weekly VAH          4725   Upper value
Monthly Open        4698   Right on it. Decision level.
Session VWAP        4682   Below current price. Support.
Weekly VAL          4661   Lower value
Lower HVN           4656   Volume support base
Prior Week VAL      4527   Deep support

4. WEEKLY OPTIONS OUTLOOK

ES: Negative gamma. P/C open interest ratio is 2.82, heavily put-skewed. IV 30D at 19.65%. Expected daily move plus or minus 1.28% (~85 handles). The flip level sits at 6605. Above it, moves dampen. Below, they accelerate. Heavy options interest at 6600 (biggest concentration), clusters at 6575 and 6675. Call resistance at 6800, put support at 6500. Confluence at 6605 where the flip level meets the prior session POC.

NQ: Positive gamma. P/C at 1.31, balanced. IV at 23.31%. Expected daily move plus or minus 1.52% (~370 handles). Biggest interest at 24000, clusters at 24400 and 24500. Call resistance at 24750, put support at 23000. Flip level at 24070, below current price. Confluence at 24245 where a blind spot level overlaps with the RTH HVN.

CL: Crisis volatility. IV at 112.65%. Net GEX massively positive (246M). Biggest interest at 115, then 108, 112, 107, 109. Call resistance at 110 (price right on it). Put support at 90. Expected daily range $8.

GC: IV at 31.97%. Biggest interest at 4700, then 4750, 4650. Call resistance at 5000. Put support at 4400. Flip at 4595, below price. Expected daily range ~$94.

CTA: Speculators in ES were net short heading into the week (-36,230 contracts as of 3/31), but they added 27,710 longs and cut 5,642 shorts. That’s a +33K net swing toward long. They’re covering. NQ specs are net long at +21,513, added 9,564 longs and cut 7,486 shorts. The spec crowd is getting bullish in tech.

VIX: 24.54. 2Y yield at 3.79%, 10Y at 4.31%, spread 0.51%. Normal curve. Fed funds at 3.64%.

5. MOMENTUM AND CONTEXT

Value areas are migrating higher. Last week’s ES POC was 6610, prior week’s was 6655. This week’s early value at 6626 is building above last week’s POC. If this holds through Monday and Tuesday, we’re stacking value higher.

NQ’s value migration is cleaner. Prior week POC 24400, last week 24150, this week 24308. Weekly closes: 23254 (two weeks ago) to 24130 (last week). That’s a 900-point improvement in one week.

Crude went from a monthly VWAP of 105.73 to trading at 110. The monthly profile has a value area from 96.52 to 115.06, which is absurdly wide. There’s no equilibrium, just event-driven price discovery.

Gold monthly VWAP at 4713, price at 4700. Almost perfectly balanced on the monthly anchor. Prior month POC was 5060, we’re $360 below that. Consolidation range.

Cross-asset: crude driving everything. If crude stays above 110, equities stay cautious and gold stays bid. If crude drops (ceasefire), equities rip and gold takes a breather.

6. SWING SETUPS

ES long above 6610. If value continues stacking above the multi-session POC at 6610 through Monday and Tuesday, the weekly structure is bullish. Target: test of 6654 (prior week high). Confirmation: two sessions closing above 6620 with value area above 6600. Wrong if ES closes below 6572 (monthly open). 2-3 day hold.

NQ long on pullback to 24150. The triple-timeframe POC at 24150 is the entry zone. If NQ pulls back from the 24350 area and holds 24150 with buying interest on the footprint, that’s the spot. Target: 24500 (options cluster). Wrong if NQ closes below 23926 (monthly open). 2-3 day hold.

CL fade if 113.97 holds. If crude retests Thursday’s high at 114 and can’t get through, that’s a short. Crisis vol means the move will be fast. Target: 109 area (weekly VAL). Wrong if CL closes above 114. 1-2 days max. Size down, this thing moves $8 a day.

7. WHAT I’M WATCHING THIS WEEK

1. 6654 ES. The only thing that matters for equity bulls. Prior week’s high. Take it out and the V-reversal is confirmed. Fail here and we chop between 6572 and 6654 all week.

2. Iran headlines. More important than any economic data this week. A ceasefire framework changes everything. A breakdown sends crude to 120.

3. CPI Friday. If core CPI comes in hot because of the energy spike, the Fed’s “hold” narrative gets complicated. That’s the kind of print that moves markets 100 handles.

4. NQ vs ES divergence. NQ in positive gamma, ES in negative. If they start moving in opposite directions, follow the leader.

5. 24150 NQ. The triple POC. Does it hold as support or break?

8. THE WEEK’S PLAN

Bullish above 6610 ES, neutral between 6572 and 6610, bearish below 6572. NQ is the cleaner long if you want equity exposure. Crude is untradeable for size until the headline risk calms down. Gold is a coinflip at 4700. CPI Friday is the land mine. Size down until Wednesday at minimum. Protect yourself at all times. Survive and advance.

Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free trading course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick