Yesterday’s Sessions

ES opened at 6780, a gap-down from Friday’s 6855. Sellers pushed it to 6767 and that was the low. Buyers took over and never looked back. ES closed at 6923, right at the developing POC. The value area built between 6851 and 6926, so the entire day’s business was done in the upper third of the range. That’s not a rotation day. That’s a trend day up that trapped shorts at the open and ground them all afternoon.

NQ was the leader. Opened at 24980, dipped to 24905 in the overnight, then ran to 25560 for a 655-point range. Yesterday’s POC landed at 25315, dead center of the move. NQ closed above March’s high at 25318. That’s a breakout.

CL spiked to 105.63 on blockade escalation, then collapsed to 97.03 before closing at 98. Yesterday’s POC was 103.70, way up at the top where the panic buying happened. The value area was 100.23-105.13. Every time crude spikes and equities shrug it off, the market is telling you it doesn’t believe the war premium.

GC opened at the low (4626) and ground higher all day to close at 4767. Yesterday’s POC was 4748 with value between 4728 and 4762. Quiet compared to everything else. Gold is the hedge trade and the bid is still alive.

NQ: Really starting to look like a lockout isnt it?

The Overnight

ES opened Globex at 6925, right at yesterday’s VAH, and has pushed to 6945. The developing session POC is 6925, which is the same level as yesterday’s POC at 6923. Two sessions building volume at the same price. That level is now the line. Price is above value, testing higher into PPI.

NQ opened at 25594 and pushed to 25698. Price is 350 points above yesterday’s POC and trading in new territory above March’s high. The session POC at 25584 is the developing anchor. This is extension, not rotation.

CL gapped down from yesterday’s 98 close, opened at 96.75 and flushed to 95.20 before recovering to 96.46. The entire overnight session is below yesterday’s VAL at 100.23. Value has migrated 700 ticks lower in one session. The session POC at 96.80 is the new center of gravity.

GC is pressing. Gapped up from yesterday’s 4767 close, pushed to 4820, sitting at 4788. Price is above yesterday’s VAH (4762) and testing the month’s VAH at 4824. The session POC at 4796 is the developing anchor.

NFIB already printed this morning at 95.8, well below the 98.6 consensus. Small business confidence fading. Not a session mover on its own, but it adds to the picture.

The Calendar

- PPI (March), 7:30 AM CT

- Fed Goolsbee, 11:15 AM CT

- Fed Barr, 11:45 AM CT

- Fed Collins, 12:00 PM CT

- API Crude inventories, 3:30 PM CT

Rest of the week: Empire State + NAHB + EIA Crude + Beige Book (Wed). Claims + Philly Fed + Industrial Production (Thu). Fed Barkin and Waller (Fri).

The Map

ES

March POC          6967    |  Session VAL      6922
Overnight high     6945    |  Yesterday VAL    6851
Week VAH           6945    |  Week VAL         6853
Session VAH        6936    |  Prev week POC    6815
Session VWAP       6931    |  Prev week VAH    6887
Session POC        6925    |  Prev week VAL    6688
Yesterday POC      6923    |  Monday low       6767

Two sessions of POC agreement at 6923-6925. That’s the line. Above 6936, price tests the overnight high and week VAH at 6945, then March’s POC at 6967. Below 6922, air to 6851 (yesterday’s VAL), then 6815, where last week's POC was built.

NQ

Overnight high    25698    |  Yesterday VAH   25483
Session VAH       25642    |  Yesterday POC   25315
Session VWAP      25612    |  Prev week POC   25030
Session POC       25584    |  Prev week VAH   25393
Session VAL       25564    |  Prev week VAL   24909
Yesterday high    25560    |  Monday low      24905

NQ is 350 points above yesterday’s POC. Extension territory. If it holds above 25584, the overnight high at 25698 is the target. If it pulls back through 25564, yesterday’s VAH at 25483 is the first real support. Yesterday’s POC at 25315 is the deeper level and lines up with March’s high.

CL

Yesterday POC     103.70   |  Session POC      96.80
Yesterday VAH     105.13   |  Session VWAP     96.78
Yesterday VAL     100.23   |  Session VAL      96.29
Prev week POC      98.00   |  Overnight low    95.20
Session VAH        97.41   |  Prev week VAL    91.17

CL is below yesterday’s entire value area. The gap between session VAH at 97.41 and yesterday’s VAL at 100.23 is the low-volume zone. The previous week's POC at 98 is the intermediate reference. Below 96.29, 95.20 is the overnight floor.

GC

Prev week POC     4848     |  Session VWAP    4796
Prev week VAH     4855     |  Session VAL     4785
Month VAH         4824     |  Yesterday VAH   4762
Overnight high    4820     |  Yesterday POC   4748
Session VAH       4805     |  Yesterday VAL   4728

GC pressing the month’s VAH at 4824. Last week’s POC at 4848 is the next target, loaded with two-way volume from that week’s 4626-4888 range. Below 4785, pullback to yesterday’s VAH at 4762 then yesterday’s POC at 4748.

What I’m Watching

The PPI reaction is the entire session. If the number comes in soft, ES has room to test 6950 and the March POC at 6967. NQ could run to 25750+. If it’s hot, confirming the energy price bleed-through, fade targets are 6900 ES and 25483 NQ (yesterday’s VAH).

CL: Does the 100 level hold as resistance? Every push above 100 has been sold. Crude is below yesterday’s entire value area and value is migrating lower. If 100 breaks and holds, the whole tape changes.

GC: Testing the month’s VAH at 4824. A clean break opens up 4845-4848, where last week’s POC sits. Rejection here means pullback to 4785-4748. Gold moves on headlines, but the levels tell you where to look.

The White Van Stuff

The options positioning on equities is about as bullish as it gets. The call-buying crowd is leaning in hard on both ES and NQ. Volatility is priced low despite the monitoring the Middle East situation. The gamma people are pricing in resolution, not escalation.

ES expected daily range is plus or minus 0.93%, roughly 6859-6987. Same-day interest is heaviest at 6950 on the upside and 6825 on the downside. The broader options ceiling sits at 7000 with the floor at 6500. Heavy interest clusters at 6900, 6875, and 6925. The 6925 cluster sitting right on today’s POC is worth noting.

NQ expected move is plus or minus 1.17%, range 25244-25843. NQ is already above its same-day cap at 25600. Heavy interest overhead at 25700 and 25750.

CL expected range is 92.62-105.54. A 13% expected move. The 30-day volatility on crude is over 100%. That’s not a market, that’s a hurricane. Size accordingly.

GC expected range 4690-4845. Same-day interest caps at 4800. Above 4800 gets interesting. The expected move high at 4845 lines up with last week’s POC at 4848. When two different data sets point to the same level, pay attention.

Crude and Gold

CL is the barometer. Monday’s spike to 105+ and crash to 97 built a profile with the POC at 103.70, way up where the panic buying happened. Today’s value is migrating 700 ticks lower. The 100 level and yesterday’s VAL at 100.23 are the overhead resistance. Below, the session POC at 96.80 is the developing center of gravity, with 95 as the next floor. The volatility in this name is insane. Don’t try to be a hero.

GC is pressing higher. Session POC at 4796, price at 4788, testing the month’s VAH at 4824 and last week’s POC at 4848. The weekly value area is 4722-4793, so price is pushing above the week’s range. If the standoff escalates, gold runs toward 4848 and higher. If a framework holds, gold fades back into the week’s value at 4793-4748.

What Could Go Wrong

ES 6922 breaks (session VAL). If PPI is hot and the session value area fails, it’s 6900, then 6851 (yesterday’s VAL), then 6815 (prev week POC). That’s a 100-point flush.

NQ 25564 breaks (session VAL). Below that, 25483 (yesterday’s VAH), then 25315 (yesterday’s POC). The staircase has big gaps.

CL reclaims 100 and holds. If yesterday’s VAL at 100.23 flips back to support, the “value migrating lower” thesis is dead and the war premium is back. That drags equities lower.

The Plan

ES: If ES holds 6925 and builds above 6936, targets are 6950, March POC at 6967, then 6987. If 6922 breaks, it’s 6900, 6851, 6825, 6815. Two sessions of POC agreement at 6925 make that the line.

NQ: If NQ holds 25584 and clears 25698, the next stops are 25750, 25843. If 25564 fails, it’s 25483, 25400, 25315, 25030. NQ is extended but leading. Respect the momentum.

CL: If CL holds 96.80 and reclaims 97.41, the path is 98, 100, then 100.23 (yesterday’s VAL). If 96.29 fails, 95.20, 95, 92.62. Don’t overcook this one.

GC: If GC holds 4796 and clears 4820, targets are 4824, 4845, 4848. If 4785 fails, 4762, 4748, 4728.

Trust your prep. Trade your levels. The rest is noise.

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Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.

Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Friday’s Session

Friday was a parking lot. ES range of 8.50 handles. POC at 6860. Three sessions in a row the market parked at 6854-6863 and said “this is value, fight me.” That’s not rotation. That’s a man who carries boats. 167 handles on Tuesday’s gap, never pulled back, ground higher for three more sessions, accepted at 6860. Who’s gonna carry the longs?

Nobody, apparently. The blockade killed it.

NQ did the same thing. 43-handle range Friday, POC at 25301, closed at 25333 above March’s high. ES hadn’t done that yet. When the Nasdaq reclaims last month and the S&P doesn’t, tech is driving. That divergence mattered going into the weekend. It matters more now.

CL closed at 95.63, below the weekly POC at 98. Then Trump announced a naval blockade of the Strait and crude gapped $8 to 104. If you were short crude over the weekend after last week’s 16% crash.. I’ve been there. It costs more than the money.

GC faded from 4888 into Friday, closed at 4771. I said gold catches a bid on the blockade. It didn’t. Gold dropped to 4626 and bounced to 4737. Sitting on the monthly POC. Classic. The one call I made with confidence is the one that went the other way. I’m still not the best trader out there.

The Overnight

ES is at 6810, down 53 from Friday. Full gap below Friday’s value area. The Globex POC is developing at 6813.50, right at last week’s POC of 6815. The market gapped down to the exact level where last week built the most volume. That’s not random. The profile is a historical record of where participants wanted to transact. They want to transact at 6815. The question is whether that holds at 8:30 or whether Friday’s acceptance was a lie. Globex range 6802-6831. Session VWAP at 6801.

NQ at 25114, down 219. Back inside March’s range (25010-25318). Globex low 25059, right at March’s low. If that holds, we’re still inside March. If it breaks, we’re in April’s value area and 25030 (prev week POC) is the next stop.

CL at 104.13, up $8.50 from Friday. Opened at 104.78, pulled back to 102.96, holding. The developing weekly POC is at 104.10. Crude above last week’s entire value area. One-time-framing higher. Size down.

GC at 4737.80, down $33. Right on the monthly POC at 4735. That level is the line for gold today. Either the monthly profile defends it or it doesn’t.

The Map

ES

March POC       6966.75  |  Prev week POC    6815.00
March close     6926.75  |  Globex POC       6813.50
March low       6894.00  |  Session VWAP     6801.29
Prev week VAH   6887.00  |  Globex low       6802.25
Friday close    6863.75  |  Prev week VAL    6688.00
Friday POC      6860.00  |  April POC        6620.00

The gap opened right on last week’s POC. 6815 is where the week of April 7-11 had the conversation. Responsive buyers showed up overnight (bounce from 6802 to 6831). If they defend 6815 at the RTH open, gap fill toward 6860 is the target. That’s where three sessions said value lives. Above 6860, the prev week VAH at 6887, then March’s range starting at 6894.

If 6802 breaks, there’s nothing until 6688 (prev week VAL). 90 handles of air. Below 6688, the April POC at 6620. That’s the waterfall read from the Huddle and it’s been hitting every step.

NQ

Prev week VAH   25393.00  |  March POC       25062.50
Friday close    25333.00  |  Globex low      25059.25
Friday POC      25301.00  |  Prev week POC   25030.00
Globex high     25194.75  |  March low       25009.50
NQ last         25114.50  |  Week VAL        24922.00

NQ is inside March’s range. The March POC at 25062 and the Globex low at 25059 are the same zone. If NQ holds there, it’s a dip buy into 25301 (Friday POC, gap fill). If 25059 breaks, the prev week POC at 25030 and March low at 25010 are the cluster. Below 25010, it’s a different month and the staircase from the Huddle takes over: 24909, 24740, 24348, 24150. NQ migrated 880 points last week. It can give that back fast.

CL

Prev week VAH   105.80  |  Week POC        104.10
Globex high     104.91  |  CL last         104.13
Globex open     104.78  |  Globex low      102.96
Month POC        99.00  |  Prev week POC    98.00
Friday close     95.63  |  Prev week VAL    91.17

CL gapped through everything. 104.10 is the developing weekly POC. Above 105.80 (prev week VAH) the pre-crash range opens up. Below 102.96 (Globex low), the gap starts filling toward 99 (month POC) then 98 (prev week POC). The options market was pricing $11 daily swings before the blockade. Size down.

GC

Prev week POC    4848.00  |  Month POC       4735.00
Prev week VAH    4855.30  |  GC last         4737.80
Friday POC       4786.40  |  Globex low      4725.20
Friday close     4771.00  |  Prev week VAL   4704.60
Globex high      4762.50  |  Month VAL       4661.90

Monthly POC at 4735 is the line. If gold holds it and builds above 4762, first target is 4771 (Friday close) then 4786 (Friday POC). If 4735 breaks, 4725 (Globex low) then 4705 (prev week VAL). Below 4705, the monthly VAL at 4662.

What I’m Watching

ES gapped to last week’s POC. That’s the setup. If responsive buyers defend 6815 at the open, that’s longs into the gap fill at 6860. Wrong if 6802 breaks. The obvious levels work because everybody sees them. That’s the whole point.

The ES/NQ divergence. NQ was above March’s high going into the weekend. ES wasn’t. Both gapped down. If NQ holds above March’s low and ES can’t hold 6815, trade the stronger one. Don’t fight both directions at once.

Crude is the tell for everything. Again. If CL holds 104 and pushes above 106, the blockade is real and equities have a problem. If CL fades below 103, it’s posturing and equities get relief. CL and ES have been inversely correlated since the Iran situation started. Watch crude to know equities. We’ll see.

The White Van Stuff

The options positioning from Friday is getting repriced. All of it. Here’s where the interest sits.

ES: The heaviest options interest is clustered at 6850 and 6875, with secondary pockets at 6800, 6825, and 6775. Those first two (6850, 6875) were inside Friday’s value area. Now they’re overhead resistance after the gap. The same-day flip level is at 6795, which means below 6795 the options positioning shifts from supportive to accelerating. ES at 6810 is 15 handles above the flip. The ceiling where call sellers are stacked sits at 6900 (same-day and all-exp). Put buyers piled in at 6750 same-day, 6500 all-exp. Expected daily range: 6788-6922. ES at 6810 is near the low end. If this gap extends, the 6775 and 6725 interest levels below are the next options-derived support.

NQ: Heaviest interest at 25300 and 25400, both above the gap. Secondary interest at 25000, 25200, 25100. Same-day flip level at 24975, right at the Globex POC of 24980. NQ at 25114 is above the flip. Below 24975, the positioning turns and 24900, 24875, 24800 are the next interest levels on the way down. Ceiling at 25450 same-day (25500 all-exp). Expected range: 24994-25568.

CL: This is where it gets interesting. The all-exp ceiling is at 100. CL is at 104. Crude is ABOVE the call ceiling. The same-day picture hasn’t repriced the blockade yet: the same-day floor where put buyers showed up is at 105, same-day flip level is at 107, both ABOVE current price. This means the same-day options were still positioned for Friday’s close at 95, not Monday’s gap at 104. When those reprice at the open, the new same-day levels will be completely different. The all-exp interest is clustered at 92, 95, 98. All below. There’s almost no options-derived resistance above 100 because nobody was positioned for crude above the ceiling. Size down.

GC: Heaviest interest at 4750, 4800, 4810. Same-day ceiling at 4850, floor at 4675. Same-day flip at 4790. GC at 4737 is below the flip, which means the same-day positioning is working against gold right now. If gold pushes above 4790, the options dynamic flips supportive. Below 4700 and 4650 are the next interest levels on the downside. Expected range: 4710-4865.

The Calendar

Monday 4/14: Nothing. The gap is the event.

Tuesday 4/15: NFIB at 5am CT. PPI at 7:30am CT. Goolsbee, Barr, Collins speak.

Wednesday 4/16: Empire State 7:30am CT. EIA crude at 9:30am CT. Beige Book 1pm CT.

Thursday 4/17: Claims at 7:30am CT. Philly Fed 7:30am CT. Industrial Production 8:15am CT.

Friday 4/18: Barkin and Waller speak. Baker Hughes.

PPI on Tuesday is the print. The blockade reprices energy. Energy flows into PPI. Hot PPI on top of a blockade is the double-hit scenario nobody wants to see.

What Could Go Wrong

If 6802 breaks and there’s no responsive buying, the next volume is 90 handles away at 6688. Four sessions of acceptance at 6860 become a false balance. Three days of “who’s gonna carry the longs” turns into “apparently nobody.” That’s the gap-and-go scenario.

If CL accelerates above 106 and holds, the energy premium reprices equities deeper. Every dollar higher on crude is a headwind.

If NQ breaks below March’s low at 25010, the “NQ leads” thesis flips. That was the bull case last week. Losing it changes the character.

The Plan

ES: 6815 (last week’s POC) holds = longs into the gap fill at 6860. 6802 breaks = different tape, 6688 next. The options flip level at 6795 is the line in the sand.

NQ: 25060 (March low / Globex low) holds = gap fill toward 25301. Breaks = 25030 then 25010 then the Huddle staircase. The options flip at 24975 lines up with the Globex POC. That’s a confluence worth watching.

CL: 104 is the developing POC. Above 106 the pre-crash range opens. Below 103 the gap fills toward 99. The options market hasn’t repriced the blockade yet. Expect new same-day levels at the open. Size down.

GC: 4735 (monthly POC) is the line. Above 4790 the options positioning flips supportive. Below 4700 and 4675 there’s nothing until 4650.

Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can’t lose.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with [Lucid Trading](https://lucidtrading.com/ref/nick/). Use my link or code NICK.

*Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.*

Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The last three sessions have been a slow grind higher off the ceasefire gap, and now the market gets to decide if it believes the move. Crude is still the tell. If oil is fading while equities hold, the ceasefire trade is working. If oil rips back through 100 and equities can’t hold yesterday’s highs, we’ve got a problem. We’ll see.

Yesterday’s Sessions

ES was the cleanest chart all week. Opened 6802, found buyers immediately, and ground up to 6876 before settling at 6862. POC at 6864. Volume built right at the highs of the week. That’s not indecision, that’s acceptance. Three sessions now have built volume above 6800 and each one has held higher. The profile is migrating up.

NQ had a real session for once. Range of 24961-25270 with POC at 25155. The morning dip to 24961 (testing overnight lows one more time) got bought hard and we ripped 300 points to close at 25249. That dip-and-rip character tells you someone is positioned long and defending. The question is whether CPI gives them a reason to stay.

CL tested 102.65 intraday and got rejected back to 99.30 close. POC at 98.00. Crude is still trying to figure out where it lives post-ceasefire. The 95-103 range has been the playground all week. Every push above 100 has failed so far. That matters for equities.

GC had a decent recovery day. Low at 4760, high at 4826, close at 4793 with POC at 4812. Gold is building volume in the 4780-4812 zone after that sharp selloff from the 4850s earlier in the week. Starting to look like a base.

The Overnight

ES opened at 6863 and has been quiet. Range of 6851-6871. Barely 20 points. Overnight POC at 6858, VAH at 6867, VAL at 6857. Sitting right on yesterday’s POC. The market is coiled and waiting for CPI at 7:30.

NQ opened at 25270 and pushed to 25302 before pulling back to 25203 and recovering to 25294. Slightly more range than ES (100 points) but still inside yesterday’s value. Overnight POC at 25247.

CL opened at 98.39 and dipped to 97.00 before recovering to 97.54. Overnight range 97-100. POC at 98.80. Sitting in the middle of the weekly range.

GC opened at 4783 and dipped to 4753 before recovering to 4786. Overnight POC at 4785.

The Calendar

CPI and Core CPI at 7:30 AM CT basically they came in as expected (I was writing this and lost track of time before the print). This is the print that sets the tone for the next two weeks(it probably doesnt matter based on the reaction). Michigan Consumer Sentiment prelim at 9:00 AM CT. Baker Hughes rig count at 12:00 PM CT (crude watchers care).

The Map

ES

Yesterday high  6876.00  |  Overnight VAL   6856.50
Overnight high  6871.00  |  Overnight low   6850.50
Yesterday POC   6863.75  |  Week POC        6815.00
Overnight POC   6858.00  |  Yesterday low   6801.50
Overnight VAH   6866.50  |  Prev week high  6653.75

NQ

Overnight high  25302.25  |  Overnight VAL   25206.00
Yesterday high  25269.75  |  Overnight low   25202.75
Yesterday POC   25155.00  |  Week POC        25080.00
Overnight POC   25247.00  |  Yesterday low   24960.50
Overnight VAH   25272.50  |  Prev week high  24348.25

ES is building value at the top of the week’s range. Three sessions stacked above 6800. NQ is extended above its week POC of 25080 by almost 200 points. The gap between current price and the week’s heavy volume (NQ 25080, ES 6815) is where the risk lives.

CL

Overnight high  100.42  |  Overnight VAL    97.67
Yesterday high  102.65  |  Overnight low    97.00
Yesterday POC    98.00  |  Yesterday low    95.25
Overnight POC    98.80  |  Week POC         98.00
Overnight VAH    99.22  |

GC

Yesterday high  4826.00  |  Overnight VAH   4791.30
Week POC        4812.00  |  Overnight VAL   4771.40
Yesterday POC   4812.00  |  Yesterday low   4759.60
Overnight high  4795.50  |  Overnight low   4752.70
Overnight POC   4785.00  |  Prev week high  4821.00

CL week POC and yesterday POC are both at 98. That’s the anchor. GC is building a base in the 4780-4812 zone with week POC and yesterday POC converging at 4812.

What I’m Watching

ES: The profile migration is real. Three sessions building higher. If we hold 6850 (overnight low, also overnight VAL) after CPI and start accepting above 6876 (yesterday’s high and the week’s high), the next targets are 6900 (heavy options interest) then 6930 (top of the expected move). The 6850 level has been tested twice overnight and held both times. If it breaks, the air pocket down to 6815 (week POC) is where you’d expect support. Below that is 6800 where the week’s base was built.

NQ: 25250 area is yesterday’s high and roughly where overnight has been hovering. Above it with acceptance, targets are 25300, 25400, then 25500 (heavy options interest). Below 25200 (overnight low and overnight VAL), first stop is 25080-25155 where the week’s volume is heavy. Below 25080 there’s a real air pocket to 24960 (yesterday’s low) and then the whole ceasefire gap opens up to 24350 (prev week high). NQ is the one that moves fastest if CPI is hot.

CL: 98 is the anchor. The week POC and yesterday POC are the same number. Above 100 with a hold and the ceasefire premium isn’t out. Below 97 (overnight low) and we’re heading back to 95 where the excess low from earlier this week lives. The 95-100 range is confirmed until one side breaks with volume behind it.

GC: Building a base at 4785 overnight POC with yesterday POC and week POC both at 4812. Above 4812 and gold is reclaiming the week’s value. First target would be 4826 (yesterday’s high) then 4850 where we sold off hard earlier in the week. Below 4753 (overnight low) the base breaks and 4720 (this week’s absolute low) is next. Below that is prev week POC at 4620.

The White Van Stuff

ES options interest is concentrated at 6900 calls and 6500 puts. Wide collar. Expected daily range is 6796-6930, so the top of that range lines up almost exactly with the call interest. Same-day put interest at 6775. If CPI drives us below 6800, that 6775 level is where things accelerate.(it didnt)

NQ has options at 25500 calls and 24000 puts. The same-day levels are tighter: 25250 calls, 24750 puts. That same-day call level at 25250 is right where we’re trading. A breakout above it would trigger covering.

CL options: 100 calls and 90 puts. Expected move 92-104. GC: 5000 calls and 4400 puts. Expected move 4737-4899.

VIX at 21.04, down from 25.78 earlier this week. Volatility is compressing. Size normal.

Crude and Gold

Crude has been the barometer all week. Every push above 100 has failed. If CPI comes in soft and the ceasefire narrative holds, crude should drift back toward 95 and equities run. If CPI is hot and the Iran situation escalates again, crude breaks 100 and equities have a problem. The 98 POC is the line. CL and ES have been inversely correlated all week. Watch crude to know equities.

Gold is trying to build a base after the sharp selloff from 4850. The 4785-4812 zone has two sessions of volume now. If this base holds and gold reclaims 4812, the 4850 area is the first real test. If the base breaks below 4753, there’s nothing until 4720, then 4620 (prev week POC). Gold is the second derivative of the ceasefire trade: if rates expectations shift on CPI, gold moves first.

What Could Go Wrong

1. NQ loses 25080 (week POC): that’s 200+ points below current price and the gap between here and there is mostly air. If CPI triggers a flush, 25080 is the line between “pullback” and “the ceasefire move is unwinding.”

2. ES can’t hold 6850: the overnight low that’s held twice. If it breaks on CPI, 6815 (week POC) is first, then 6800. Below 6800 the whole week’s structure is suspect.

3. CL breaks 100 and holds: if crude gets above 100 and stays there, the equity rally is on borrowed time. Watch the crude chart before making any ES/NQ decisions.

The Plan

ES: 6850 is the floor. Two overnight tests, both held. If buyers show up again after CPI and we build above yesterday’s high at 6876, the profile is migrating up and targets are 6900 then 6930. If 6850 breaks with sellers behind it, first stop is 6815 where the week POC sits, then 6800 where the real volume base was built. Below 6800 the week falls apart.

NQ: 25200 overnight low is the near-term line. Hold it and build above 25250, targets are 25300, 25400, 25500 step by step. Lose 25200 and the first real volume is at 25080-25155. Below 25080 there’s an air pocket all the way to 24960 (yesterday’s low). Below that the ceasefire gap opens to 24350. The further NQ is from 25080, the bigger the snap-back risk.

CL: 98 is the anchor, same number for a week now. Above 100 with a hold, the ceasefire premium isn’t out and equities should notice. Below 97 we’re heading to 95 where the week’s excess low lives. Don’t be a hero in either direction until one side breaks with volume.

GC: 4785 overnight POC is the near-term anchor. Above 4812 (week POC + yesterday POC) gold is reclaiming value, targets 4826 then 4850. Below 4753 the base breaks, air to 4720, then 4620 where prev week POC sits. The CPI print matters most here because gold trades rate expectations directly.

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Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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