NICK4ATICK: The Game Plan

The Game Plan: Monday, July 13, 2026

Nick — Mon, 13 Jul 2026 13:02:20 GMT

Fresh strikes overnight and a half-shut Strait of Hormuz sent crude gapping up through everything it built last week. Meanwhile the chip names got sold hard on Samsung’s numbers and dragged NQ down with them, and gold, the one thing that is supposed to love a Middle East headline, just sat there and faded instead. Overnight took out the Trump tweet tape bomb from Friday (hope everyone survived the V-logic event). This week I’d recommend taking it slow. Very much still in balance and looking for a direction.

The Tape

ES put in a trend-up session Friday and closed on the highs, value stacked up top with the point of control at 7623 and the value low at 7596. The overnight faded that strength on the chip selloff, opening at 7607 and grinding down to 7587 where it sits now, right on the shelf where last week and the whole month built the most volume near 7588. Above 7594 and 7596 puts overnight value back on the table toward Friday’s close at 7620. Below 7588 and the next real volume doesn’t show up until 7552 Friday’s low, then 7547 where June did its business. It sits 7590, pinned to the line the month built.

NQ is the one that got hit. Friday closed strong near 30037 with value between 29898 and the 30050 point of control, and the overnight erased all of it on the chip flush, dragging price to 29727 before it steadied. It sits 29765 now, coiling just above that overnight low and well below Friday’s value. Reclaiming 29815 puts it back inside the range it lost with 29900 the July peak the bigger test above. Below 29727 opens 29700 where June built, then 29674 Friday’s low, then air toward 29492.

CL is the mirror image, gapping up hard overnight while everything else bled, clearing Friday’s entire range and parking at 74.15. Friday was a base down around the 71.25 volume shelf, and the overnight tore through 73 and topped at 74.65 before settling into a tight hold above 73.61. As long as it stays above 73.14, Friday’s high that flipped to support, the breakout stays intact with 74.65 and then open air up to 76.08 last week’s high. A slip back under 73.14 fills the gap and puts 72 back in the conversation where last week and the month agree. It sits 74.15, holding the highest prices in weeks.

GC is the odd one out, fading while oil rips on the same headlines that usually put a bid under it. Friday held value up near 4111 and closed at 4116, but the overnight sold it through Friday’s low to 4069 and it sits 4077 now, underneath everything Friday built. Reclaiming 4080 and 4082 gets it back toward the 4090s and last week’s floor at 4097. Losing 4075 and the 4069 overnight low opens air down to 4042 where June found value, then 4032 last week’s low. It sits 4077, below Friday’s entire range.

The Calendar

Light day on the data front. No top-tier prints, so the overnight headlines carry the tape. Two Fed speakers are on the docket, Bowman in the early morning and Waller around 11:30 CT, and either can nudge rates and equities if they say something new. The Treasury budget statement lands at 1:00 PM CT and rarely moves anything. The real override today is the overnight headline tape, not the calendar.

The Plan

ES:

The whole month built its volume at 7588 and that is the line again this morning, last week’s point of control and July’s sitting right on top of where value bottomed overnight. Above 7594, ES gets back 7596 Friday’s value low and 7602 the overnight value high, and reclaiming those opens 7615 the overnight high and 7620 Friday’s close. Through there, 7623 Friday’s volume peak and 7627 Friday’s high are the targets, with 7647 June’s value high the extension. Below 7588 fails and 7587 the overnight low is the first crack. Losing that and 7552 Friday’s low is the gate, then 7547 where June did its business, then 7531 last week’s value low and 7520 July’s value low underneath.

NQ:

NQ has the most repair to do. The line to reclaim is 29815, where value bottomed overnight, and getting back above it puts price inside the range it lost, with 29890 the overnight volume peak and 29898 Friday’s value low stacked just above. Clearing 29900 the July peak is the real tell the flush is done, and through it 30034 the overnight value high, 30037 Friday’s close, and 30050 Friday’s volume peak come back into play. Below, 29727 the overnight low is the shelf, and losing it opens 29700 where June built and 29674 Friday’s low. Under Friday’s low there is air down to 29492 July’s value low, then 29350 last week’s heaviest volume where the real trade sits.

CL:

Crude cleared its whole prior range overnight and the game now is whether it holds the gap. 73.61, the base of the overnight range, is the line, and above it the breakout stays alive with 74.37 the overnight high of value and 74.65 the overnight high the first targets. Through the overnight high there is open air up to 76.08 last week’s high and then 78.81 June’s value high, the levels that come into range if the bid keeps building. Below 73.61 and 73.18 the overnight low, price falls back to 73.14 Friday’s high, the last line before the gap fully fills. Under it, 72 is where last week and the month both built the most volume, then 71.57 Friday’s close and 70 where June did its business.

GC:

Gold has to prove the overnight fade was an overreaction. 4080, the overnight volume peak, is the first reclaim, and above it 4082 July’s value low and Friday’s low, then 4090 the overnight value high and 4097 last week’s floor come back into reach. Getting back to 4103 Friday’s value low and 4111 where July and Friday both peaked would mean the whole down move got repaired. Below, 4075 the overnight base and 4069 the overnight low are the gate, and losing them opens air. That air runs to 4042 where June found value, then 4032 last week’s low and 4026 July’s low underneath.

The White Van Stuff

This isn’t a yields or dollar story, it is a headline story, and the positioning is scrambling to catch up to price. Crude ran clean above its entire options structure overnight so the whole cage now sits underneath spot as support. Equities carry heavier downside interest on the tech side than the broad index, and gold’s protective structure is stacked above a market that keeps sinking away from it.

ES: The equity band is tight, calling for a quiet day if the headlines let it be one. Price is pinned just under the 7600 same-day cap with the bulk of the interest stacked overhead from 7630 up to the 7700 structural cap. The support shelf underneath is thin until 7545 where the bigger magnet sits.

NQ: NQ is where the fear is priced, the band four times wider than the broad index. Price is sitting right on the 29770 magnet that has been pulling it all night, with the same-day cap way up at 30500 and a thick wall of interest from 30000 to 30300 capping any bounce. The downside interest builds from 29500 down to the 29000 floor.

CL: Crude’s band is the loudest on the board and price already blew through the top of it. The entire options cage now sits below spot, from the 73.37 line it cleared down through 72, so that whole shelf flips to support. Overhead there is almost nothing until 75 and the 76 structural cap.

GC: Gold’s structure is stacked above a market that keeps falling away from it. The 4085 magnet and the 4090 same-day cap sit just overhead with a wall of interest from 4150 up, and the expected low near 4051 is the line the fade is pressing toward. Under 4051 the only real interest left is the 4000 floor.

Something new is coming from me and the boys. Stay tuned.

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Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Game Plan: Thursday, July 9, 2026

Nick — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 13:35:21 GMT

NQ V-ed off 29034 Wednesday and has not looked back, ES climbed back over the shelf it lost Tuesday, and gold, the chart I buried Tuesday, finally caught its bid overnight. The bounce earns respect now. What it does not earn is a chase, because NQ is walking straight into 29700, the exact price June built its whole floor on and where the sellers have camped all summer. And the tape is not trading the way you would expect: the US hit Iran again overnight, Iran answered at the Gulf, and equities are green into a shooting war while crude spiked and got sold for the tenth straight time.

The Tape

ES put in a repair day Wednesday, opening 7507, flushing to 7469 early, then grinding back all session to close 7526.75 right on its 7527 POC. The overnight held every bit of that, built value 7530 to 7553 around a 7552 POC and ran to 7558 before settling to sit 7546. That puts it back above yesterday’s value and pressed under the 7552 to 7567 band, the overnight POC stacked on last week’s and this week’s volume line. Reclaim that band and 7594, the wall it lost Tuesday, comes back into range. Lose 7527 and the shelf gives to 7500 yesterday’s floor, then 7497 last week’s floor, then 7469 the low that has held twice.

NQ was the engine Wednesday, opening 29202, knifing to 29034, then running the whole session to close 29457 on a 29400 POC, a full V off the lows. The overnight extended it, tagging 29735 and parking value up around a 29620 POC, and it sits 29699 pressed against 29700, where June built its entire floor. Above 29735 the overnight high there is air to 30029 July’s value high, with 30250 last week’s POC and 30356 July’s high stacked past it. Below, 29620 the overnight POC sits on 29619 last week’s value floor, then 29495 the overnight base and 29350 the week’s volume line. Under 29350 it is 29265 June’s value low, then the 29034 double-bottom under everything.

CL spiked to 76.08 Wednesday on the overnight headline and gave the whole thing back to close 74.07, right on its 74 POC, a blowoff and a fade in one session. The overnight did it again in miniature, popping to 75.13, flushing to 72.37, and clawing back to sit 73.95 on the same 74 line. That keeps it pinned to the price everything is deciding at, with 74.60 the overnight ceiling and 75.13 guarding 76.08 the high above. Hold the 73 shelf and the new range builds 73 to 76. Lose 72.37 the overnight low and there is nothing built until 70.47 the week POC and 70, where June parked its volume on the round number.

GC bounced Wednesday, dipping to 4032 and recovering to close 4090, but it stayed capped under 4101 all day. The overnight is where it woke up, ripping from 4073 clean through that lid to 4127 and building value up at a 4115 POC, the safe-haven bid I said had no pulse showing up a day late. It sits 4122, back above its whole recent range and pressing 4125 last week’s value high and 4127 the overnight top. Clear those and 4157 this week’s volume line opens, then 4162 July’s value ceiling and 4192, the double-print high that has capped every push. Lose 4083 yesterday’s POC and the reclaim is a fake, back to 4063 the overnight low and 4041 last week’s POC underneath.

The Calendar

Thursday, July 9 (all times CT):

- 7:30 Initial jobless claims

- 8:00 Fed’s Williams speaks

- 9:00 Existing home sales for June

- 9:30 EIA natural gas storage

- 12:00 30-year bond auction

- 12:30 Fed’s Logan speaks

The Plan

ES:

ES is coiled 7546 under the 7552 to 7567 band, the overnight volume line sitting on last week’s and this week’s POC in one spot. Accept above 7552 and the repair runs 7567 the week POC, 7578 last week’s ceiling, then 7582 July’s value high into 7594, the wall it lost Tuesday, with 7600 and 7602 the week high on top of it. Hold 7530 the overnight value floor and the bounce keeps its base. Lose it and 7527 yesterday’s POC goes, then 7512 July’s value low and 7500 yesterday’s floor, with 7497 last week’s floor the gate. Under 7497 it is air to 7469 the low that held twice, then 7451 June’s value floor.

NQ:

NQ is pressed 29699 into 29700, the June POC and the roof on this two-day bounce. Through 29735 the overnight top there is nothing but air to 30029 July’s value high, then 30250 last week’s POC and 30356 July’s high above that. Hold 29620 the overnight POC, sitting right on 29619 last week’s value floor, and the bounce stays intact. Lose it and 29495 the overnight base gives, then 29350 the week POC is the magnet. Under 29350 it is 29265 June’s value low, then 29034 the double-bottom where the whole move started.

CL:

Crude is digesting the spike right on 74, the yesterday and overnight POC in the same spot. Accept above 74.60 the overnight ceiling and the push runs 75.13 the overnight peak, then 75.29 yesterday’s value high and 76.08 the high, with 78.81 June’s value ceiling the only real structure above that. Hold the 73 shelf, 73.40 yesterday’s value floor over 73.24 the overnight base, and the range holds. Lose 72.37 the overnight low and it is air down to 70.47 the week POC. Then 70, June’s POC on the round number, with 68.56 June’s value low under it.

GC:

Gold took its whole range back overnight and sits 4122, pressed on 4125 last week’s value high and 4127 last night’s high. Clear that pair and 4157 this week’s volume line opens, then 4162 July’s value ceiling and 4192, the double-print high that has been the lid on every rally for two weeks. Hold 4115 the overnight volume line and the reclaim has a base. Lose 4083 yesterday’s POC and the overnight rip was a trap, back to 4063 the overnight low and 4055 yesterday’s value floor. Under that it is 4041 last week’s POC on 4032 the low, the bottom of the whole range.

The White Van Stuff

The books split hard overnight. Equity protection stays cheap even with headlines crossing the wire, the S&P band under a percent while the Nasdaq runs half again as wide with price right under its ceiling. Gold is the mirror of Tuesday: it cleared its ceiling and tagged the top of its expected day, the only chart on the board trading over the line instead of under it.

ES opens just below its whole same-day stack, the 7550 to 7575 shelf of interest overhead with the cap on top of it. The 7525 pivot and the 7500 put floor are the lines underneath, and the expected day runs a tight 7470 to 7587. It sits 7546, pressed under the book.

NQ carries the loud book and it is sitting right on the fight: the cap at 29700 is the exact line price is pressing, the same number as the ceiling on the standard map. The 29460 pivot and the 29000 put floor sit well below, the expected day near a percent and a half wide. It sits 29699, nose against the line.

CL owns the loudest book and the most two-sided one after the round trip. The 75 and 76 caps stack the ceiling, the 72 same-day floor and 70 put floor anchor the bottom, and the expected day is wide at 71 to 76. It sits 73.95, mid-band between a cleared spike and the 75 line.

GC is the standout, the only book trading over its ceiling after clearing 4113 overnight and running to the 4131 expected high. The 4083 pivot and the 4064 floor are under price now, flipped from resistance to support. It sits 4122, stretched to the top of its band.

Protect yourself at all times. Survive and advance.

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The Game Plan: Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Nick — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 12:55:17 GMT

GM Strait of Hormuz Monitooors. The ceasefire is over. The president said it from a NATO podium after three tankers got hit, and every chart on the board woke up somewhere new. Crude put its war bid back on in one night, ES handed back the wall it spent three weeks earning, NQ traded through its month, and gold, the chart I called the strongest thing on the screen Sunday, got sold with everything else because expensive oil feeds the same rate math that has been squatting on this tape all summer. Daddy is home from vacation and ready to trade. Let’s get into it.

The Tape

ES never got going Tuesday, opening 7580, failing at 7588 early, and bleeding all session to close 7553, back under the 7594 wall it had just broken out over. The overnight held the close for a few hours, then dumped with the headlines to 7468 and built its value low around a 7486 overnight POC before bouncing. It sits 7508, under last week’s POC at 7556 and standing almost exactly on 7497, last week’s value floor. Hold 7497 and the recovery attempt runs 7512 the session VWAP, 7541 where overnight value tops out, and the stack from 7545 to 7556. The overnight already traded through July’s old floor at 7479, so losing 7468 opens 7451 where June’s value bottomed, with 7409 behind it.

NQ bounced to 29686 in the first hour Tuesday and spent the rest of the day giving it back, closing 29395 on a 29540 POC. The overnight snapped the shelf, trading through 29274 last week’s low and 29266 the June value shelf in one move, bottoming 28910 before buyers finally showed up. It sits 29144, under everything that mattered this month, with overnight value built all the way down at a 29000 POC. Get back over 29185, the overnight value ceiling, and the buyers get to attack the broken band between 29210 and 29274. Stay under it and 28910 is the only print between price and 28506, June’s low.

CL was already the story before the president spoke, running a trend day Tuesday from a 69.13 open to a 71.88 close with the buying stacked into the bell. The overnight gapped it to 72.37 and ran it to 75.30, the premium everyone spent two weeks selling out of it back in one night, and it sits 73.65 right on its VWAP with overnight value parked at a 74.00 POC. Above, 75.30 is the only print, and the next real structure is 78.81, June’s value top from the war months. Below, 72.69 the overnight value floor guards 72.51 Tuesday’s high, the edge of everything that traded before the headline. Everything above 71.60 last week’s high is acceptance of the new picture.

GC got rejected at the double print again Tuesday, tagging 4192 in the first hour and breaking to a 4102 low before closing 4125, its first real down day since the pattern started. The overnight kept selling to 4050, and the V-trade that bought every one of these flushes last week did not finish the job this time, stalling at 4080 where it sits now, under its 4100 overnight POC. No safe-haven bid on a war headline. The rate story owns this chart right now, not the fear story. Reclaim 4100 and 4125 for a repair toward 4145 week value, lose 4050 and it is 4041 where last week’s POC and June’s floor of value stack, then 4012 and 3976 underneath.

The Calendar

Wednesday, July 8 (all times CT):

- 9:00 Wholesale inventories for May

- 9:30 EIA crude inventories

- 12:00 10-year note auction

- 1:00 FOMC minutes

The Plan

ES:

The morning question is 7497, last week’s value floor, the shelf price is standing on. Accept above 7512 the session VWAP and 7541 the overnight value top, and the repair runs 7545 Tuesday’s value floor, 7553 the close, and the 7555 stack where the overnight high sits on last week’s POC. That stack is the line between a bounce and a real repair, and above it 7567 Tuesday’s POC and 7580 Tuesday’s value top bring the 7594 wall back into the conversation. Hold 7497 without reclaiming 7555 and the day is a low rotation, rallies getting sold into the stack. Lose 7497 and 7486 the overnight POC goes first, then 7468 the overnight low, and under that the July profile is finished: 7451 June’s value floor, air to 7409 last week’s low, and 7307 June’s low under everything.

NQ:

NQ broke its month overnight, so the plan is about the shelf it broke: 29210 the week low, 29266 June’s value floor, and 29274 where last week bottomed, all stacked in one band. Reclaim 29185, the top of the overnight profile, and that band is the fight, with acceptance back inside it targeting 29329 Tuesday’s value floor, then 29395 the close and 29447 the overnight high. Above those it is 29540 Tuesday’s POC and 29596 Tuesday’s value top, with 29700 June’s POC the roof on any repair this week. Fail at the band and the sellers stay in control, rotating back through 29000 the overnight POC. Lose 28910 the overnight low and there is nothing on the profile until 28506.

CL:

Crude rewrote its chart overnight and the profile has to catch up, so the map is simple. Hold 72.69 the overnight value floor and the new range builds between there and 75.30 the overnight high, with 74.00 the overnight POC the pivot inside it. Accept above 74.00 and a push through 75.30 finds nothing local, with 78.81 June’s value top the next real structure on the chart. Lose 72.69 and 72.51 Tuesday’s high is the gate, the edge of the old world. Under that the unwind gets real: 71.81 the overnight low, 71.60 last week’s high, then 70.47 Tuesday’s POC and 70.00 where June parked its volume, the month POC and the round number in one spot.

GC:

Gold’s line is the 4100 stack: the overnight POC, July’s value floor at 4097, and Tuesday’s 4102 low all within a few dollars, and price is under all of it. Reclaim 4100 and hold it, and the climb back runs 4119, then 4125 where Tuesday’s close sits on last week’s value top. Above 4125 the broken range comes back one level at a time: 4145 the week’s value floor, 4157 the week POC, 4178 Tuesday’s POC, and the 4187 to 4192 double print that started this slide. Stay under 4100 and bounces are sales into the stack. Lose 4050 the overnight low and 4041 catches it first, last week’s POC sitting right on the bottom of June’s value, then 4022 and 4012 under it, and 3976, June’s low, the floor of the whole summer.

The White Van Stuff

Every book on the board got run over from a different direction overnight: crude closed above its whole map, gold fell out the bottom of its band, ES woke up under its entire same-day stack, and NQ flushed its floor and crawled back over it.

ES opens under its whole same-day book for the first time in weeks: the 7545 pivot, the 7550 same-day cap, even the 7525 same-day floor are all overhead. It sits 7508, just over the 7500 put floor, with the expected floor at 7496 right under it.

NQ finally got the test its put-heavy book kept pricing: the overnight traded through the 29000 floor, the same number on both the standard and same-day maps, and came back over it. The 29370 pivot is lost overhead and 29600 is the sellers’ line on the map. It sits 29144, holding above the floor it flushed.

CL cleared everything: the 72.50 same-day cap and the 72.12 expected top are both under price now, and the map above is one line, the 76 cap. It sits 73.65 between a cleared book and the last ceiling anyone drew.

GC is the mirror image, trading under the 4088 same-day floor and under the 4090 expected low, the only market on the board below its band. The 4133 pivot and the 4163 same-day cap stack overhead. It sits 4080 with only thin interest at 4063 and 4038 between it and the 3988 put floor.

You do not need to trade every single day. Go outside.

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The Game Plan: Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Nick — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 12:59:10 GMT

Last brief of the week, as I will be traveling. NQ and ES ripped two straight days to claw back most of last week’s tech bloodbath, and now both are handing a piece of it back overnight before the bell. In other news, it’s USMNT gameday. So lets get to it.

The Tape

ES put in its second green day Tuesday, opening 7500, running to 7567, and closing 7545 near the highs on a 7555 POC. The overnight did the opposite, rotating back to the floor of that value, coiling 7510 to 7550 around a 7526 POC, and it sits 7530 just under Tuesday’s 7531 value low. That puts it back at the lower edge of the two-day rip, still holding the bulk of it but slipping off the 7545 close. Bull case is 7519 the overnight floor holds and the reclaim runs 7540, 7545, then 7555 the POC and 7567 the high. Bear case is 7519 fails, 7510 the overnight base and 7495 Tuesday’s low give, and 7474 the week floor opens with 7444 last week’s POC beneath it.

NQ was the engine again Tuesday, opening 30047, knifing to 30599, and closing 30513 on the highs with a 30529 POC. The overnight gave back a chunk, fading to 30299 and parking value at the 30435 VWAP, and it sits 30360 right on 30357 Tuesday’s value floor. It rode the two green days to the top edge of June’s whole value area and is now testing whether that floor holds as support. Bull case is 30357 holds and 30504 the overnight POC and 30513 the close come back, then 30529 the POC and 30599 the high. Bear case is 30299 the overnight bottom gives and 30015 the week POC is the first magnet, then 29890 last week’s recovery high and the 29700 shelf below it.

CL rejected 71.6 Tuesday and closed 70.09, then the overnight took it apart, knifing to poke 68.22 under the floor before bouncing to sit 69.14. That drop rebuilt value all the way down at 68.73, below Tuesday’s entire range, with round 70 lost overhead and the 68.55 multi-month floor right underfoot. It sits pinned between the two, having tested below the line the prior week and the month both bottomed on and recovered it. Bull case is 68.55 holds and the reclaim runs 69.51 Tuesday’s POC, 69.77, then round 70 and 70.51 the Tuesday value top. Bear case is 68.55 cracks with sellers behind it, 68.22 the overnight low.

GC ranged under its POC Tuesday, closing 4030, then flipped the script overnight, dumping to 3973 and ripping the whole move back to sit 4045. That V-shape rebuilt right over the 4041 to 4042 cluster where Tuesday’s POC, the week POC, and June’s value low all stack, the safe-haven bid I wrote off last week suddenly back. It sits pressing the overnight high with the only clean air of the four sitting just above. Bull case is 4042 holds and 4049 the week top and 4051 Tuesday’s value top open the run to 4078 the high, then 4106 last week’s ceiling. Bear case is 4042 fails and 4030 the close, 4025 the week floor, and 4012 the week low give back into the overnight zone toward 3975.

The Calendar

Wednesday, July 1 (all times CT):

- 6:30 Challenger job cuts for June

- 7:15 ADP private payrolls for June

- 8:00 Fed Chair Warsh speaks at the ECB forum in Sintra

- 8:45 S&P Global manufacturing PMI, final

The Plan

ES:

ES rotated back to the floor of Tuesday’s value overnight and sits 7526, coiled on the overnight POC with 7531 Tuesday’s value low right on top. Hold 7519 the overnight value low and the two-day rip keeps its base. Above 7540 the overnight ceiling and 7545 Tuesday’s close, the reclaim runs at 7555 the Tuesday and week POC, then 7567 Tuesday’s high, with 7599 last week’s high and 7647 June’s value top stacked in the air above. Lose 7519 and 7510 the overnight low gives, then 7495 Tuesday’s low is the gate. Under 7495 it is 7474 the week’s value low, then 7451 June’s value low sitting on 7444 last week’s POC where the sellers lived all month, then 7408 last week’s floor before 7307 June’s low.

NQ:

NQ gave back a chunk of the rip overnight and sits 30360 right on 30357 Tuesday’s value floor, the lower edge of the two green days. Hold 30299 the overnight bottom and the base under the rip holds. Above 30389 the overnight value floor and 30504 the overnight POC, the repair runs at 30513 Tuesday’s close and 30529 Tuesday’s POC, then 30553 the overnight high and 30599 Tuesday’s high, with the air above open to 31100 June’s high. Lose 30299 and 30015 the week POC is the first real magnet, then 29890 the prior week’s value high is the gate. Under 29890 it is 29700 where the prior week and the whole month parked their volume, then 29392 the prior week’s value floor, 29265 June’s value low, and 28506 June’s bottom where the month did its business.

CL:

Crude broke down overnight, knifing to poke 68.22 under the floor before bouncing to sit 69.14 on the overnight line, the last of the premium bleeding out as the Doha talks resume. Reclaim 69.51 Tuesday’s POC and 69.77 the overnight ceiling and round 70 comes back, the line last week and June both built their volume on, then 70.51 Tuesday’s value top and 70.91 the week POC ahead of 73.06 last week’s value top. Hold 68.55 where last week and the whole month bottomed and the floor keeps a base under it. Lose 68.55 and 68.22 the overnight base is the last shelf, and under that there is no profile left, just discovery toward 67 the next round number.

GC:

Gold put in the overnight reversal, knifing to 3973 and then ripping the whole thing back to sit 4045, pressing the overnight high and back over the 4041 to 4042 cluster where Tuesday’s POC, the week POC, and June’s value low all stack. Hold 4042 and the safe-haven bid that vanished last week is back in the room. Above 4049 the week top and the overnight high, 4051 Tuesday’s value top opens the air up to 4078 Tuesday’s high, then 4106 the prior week’s ceiling with 4365 June’s POC stranded well above. Lose 4042 and 4030 Tuesday’s close gives, then 4025 the week floor is the gate, then 4012 the week low, 3981 the prior week’s low, and 3975 where the prior week and June share a bottom sitting on 3973 the overnight low.

The White Van Stuff

ES owns the calm book again, the expected day under a percent wide and price sitting between the 7505 pivot below and the 7550 shelf of interest overhead. The 7600 same-day cap is where the sellers are stacked and the 7483 expected low is the mark a real fade has to reach, with the 7400 put floor the deep line beneath.

NQ carries the loud book, the expected day near 1.5 percent wide with the volatility still cranked and positioning tilted the most bullish of the four. Price sits over the 30300 pivot with the 30600 same-day cap the first wall overhead and the 30977 expected high the stretch, the 29000 put floor the deep line well beneath.

CL is the book pressing down into its floor, the 70 pivot lost overhead and the 71.11 expected high a full dollar above where price is trading. The 68 to 68.50 interest shelf is the near support the options crowd drew, the 65 put floor the deep line if the 68.55 structure lets go.

GC book turned with price, the overnight reversal reclaiming the 4029 pivot from below and pushing up under the 4084 expected high. The interest thins out fast above with the 4109 shelf the next real mark, while the 3962 expected low and the 3984 put floor sit stacked under the rebuilt overnight value.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.

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The Game Plan: Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Nick — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 12:20:12 GMT

Well, that was an absolutely stupid Monday trade. Nasty rip off the open, sell to the weekly open print and then slowly grind up and stall into oblivion. Even now in the pre-market, we can’t seem to find acceptance into that upper distribution. Now gold is the one face-down in the dirt, sold all night while crude also did nothing really. As I said in the weekly prep, there will be better weeks to trade. The last day of the month/quarter could bring some fun. Head on a swivel and lets dig in.

The Tape

ES put in a trend-up day Monday, opening 7457, dumping to 7409, then grinding the whole session back to close 7497 right on its 7495 POC. The overnight did nothing but hold the gain, coiling between 7482 and 7501 around that same 7494 POC, and it sits 7495 still pinned to Monday’s close. That puts it back above the 7475 line last week’s sellers defended and on top of the 7444 week and month POC it spent all of last week beneath. Reclaim stays intact above 7460 Monday’s value floor, and through 7505 Monday’s high the air opens toward 7551 June’s value top. Lose 7460 and 7444 the month POC gives, then 7408 last week’s floor sits right on 7409 Monday’s low.

NQ was the engine Monday, opening 29645, knifing to 29274, then running the entire session to close 30047 on the highs with a 30015 POC. The overnight extended just enough to tag 30086 before settling to 30033 on a 29980 POC, holding everything it took. It sits 30033 back above the 29700 wall where the prior week and the whole month parked their volume, the line every bounce died at until Monday took it. Above 30069 Monday’s high and 30086 the overnight high, the repair points at 30499 June’s value ceiling. Lose 29960 the overnight floor and 29890 last week’s recovery high catches it, then 29700 flips to the gate with 29655 Monday’s value low beside it.

CL built a quiet up day Monday, ranging 69.88 to 71.15 and closing 70.52, though its 70.91 POC sat up near the high where the volume clustered. The overnight gave it back in slow motion, fading to 70.11 and parking value tight at 70.3, and it sits 70.36 just under Monday’s whole value with the war premium long gone and crude’s worst quarter since 2020 nearly in the books. Round 70 is right underfoot, the line the prior week and the month both built their volume on. Reclaim 70.37 Monday’s value low and 70.91 the POC and 71.15 Monday’s high opens the path toward 73.06 the prior week’s value top. Lose 70 and 69.88 Monday’s low gives, then it is the 68.55 floor June and last week keep sharing.

GC kept sliding Monday, opening 4058, fading to 4012, and closing 4030, back under the 4041 POC. The overnight took it apart, knifing from 4032 down to 3955 before bouncing to sit 3978, below Monday’s entire range and the whole June value shelf. That drops it right onto 3976 where the prior week and June share their low, the safe-haven bid still nowhere while stocks rip. Reclaim 4008 the overnight value and 4025 Monday’s value floor for any push back toward 4041 the POC. Lose 3962 the overnight value low and 3955 the overnight low and there is nothing built underneath, just 3950 then 3900 the round numbers.

The Calendar

Tuesday, June 30 (all times CT):

- 8:45 Chicago PMI for June

- 9:00 JOLTS job openings and Conference Board consumer confidence

- 9:30 Dallas Fed services index

- 10:30 6-week bill auction

The Plan

ES:

ES sits 7495 pinned to Monday’s POC and the overnight POC, the reclaim holding right where the week’s sellers used to live. Hold 7460 Monday’s value low to keep the bid in control. Above 7503 Monday’s value top and 7505 the high, the upside opens 7551 June’s value ceiling, then 7599 last week’s high and 7693 June’s high in the air above. Lose 7460 and 7444 stacks the week and June POC together as the first real test, then 7409 Monday’s low sitting on 7408 the prior week’s value low. Under there it is 7354 June’s value floor, then nothing built until 7307 June’s low.

NQ:

NQ sits 30033 holding the gap back above 29700, the wall last week and the month built their volume on and every bounce died beneath until Monday took it back. Hold 29960 the overnight floor and the reclaim stays a base, not a fade. Above 30069 Monday’s high and 30086 the overnight high, the repair runs to 30499 June’s value ceiling, then 30968 last week’s high and 31100 June’s high stacked above. Lose 29960 and 29890 last week’s recovery high gives, then 29700 flips back to the gate with 29655 Monday’s value low beside it. Under 29700 it is 29392 the prior week’s floor, then 29229 June’s value floor before 28506.

CL:

CL sits 70.36 just under Monday’s value with round 70 right underfoot, the line last week and the month both built on. Hold 70 and the base stays intact. Reclaim 70.37 Monday’s value low and 70.91 the POC and the path opens to 71.15 Monday’s high, then 73.06 last week’s range top where the supply waits. Lose 70 and 69.88 Monday’s low gives, then 68.56 stacks last week’s and June’s value floor together right on 68.55 the low they keep sharing. Under 68.55 there is no profile left.

GC:

GC sits 3978, under Monday’s whole range, dropped onto 3976 where last week and June share their low after the overnight knifed it to 3955. Hold 3976 and the prior-week and month floor still has a base under it. Reclaim 4008 the overnight value and 4025 Monday’s value low, and the bounce targets 4041 the POC, then 4045 Monday’s value top. Through there 4106 the prior week’s high and 4365 June’s POC sit stranded a long way up. Lose 3955 the overnight low.

The White Van Stuff

The whole screen is still leaning short into a tape that just ripped. The put side stays loaded under both indexes even after Monday’s rally, and gold gapped clean under its own floor overnight, the positioning chasing the downside it already traded instead of the upside in front of it. Crude is the one book pressing into its cage from below, the volatility bled out of it now that the premium is gone.

ES owns the calm book again, the expected day under a percent wide and price sitting just beneath the 7525 same-day cap. The 7460 pivot is the line underneath and the 7569 expected high is the mark a continuation has to clear.

NQ carries the loud book, the expected day pushing 1.58 percent wide with the volatility still up. Price sits just over the 30000 shelf with the 30500 same-day cap overhead and the 29900 pivot below.

CL is the one trading up into its book, the 71 put floor flipped overhead after price slid under it and the 74.50 same-day cap the next real wall. The expected day runs a tight 69 to 72.49 and price sits 70.36 leaning on round 70.

GC gapped clean under its own floor overnight, the 3984 put floor a line overhead now instead of under price. The 4083 expected high caps a bounce and the 4178 magnet sits well above, the 3962 expected low right where price is already pressed.

Last day of the month. Can’t hold anything back now. Watch out for the close this afternoon.

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The Game Plan: Monday, June 29, 2026

Nick — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 12:42:19 GMT

Gm. Not much changed from last night’s weekly prep. So keep it light and tight Today. Crude finally quit falling long enough to build a base over 70 with the war premium fully gone. Light Monday, nobody on the board, the first real session of a new week, and I am not chasing this thing until sellers take 29550 back. In other news me and Stowe bring you another show Tonight at 8 pm CT. VIBECHECK: A mental game hour, live and unscripted.

The Tape

ES spent Friday rejecting its own bounce, opening 7380, tagging 7459, then selling the whole thing back to close 7380 right at the low on a 7422 POC. The overnight gapped up off the Sunday reopen and ran back to 7455, parking value tight between 7423 and 7440 around a 7435 POC, and it sits 7435 now. That puts it back inside Friday’s value but pinned under the 7442 to 7444 shelf where Friday’s value top and the week and month POC all stack, the same wall that capped the bounce. Reclaim 7444 and the upside opens through 7459 Friday’s high toward 7475 last week’s value ceiling. Lose 7408 the Friday and prior-week value floor and 7380 the close gives, then 7360 the shared low with June’s 7307 floor under it.

NQ took the worst close of the week Friday, opening 29362, running 29716, then knifing to 29182 and finishing 29312 near the lows on a 29550 POC. The overnight bought it back, lifting to 29684 just under the wall before settling to 29487 on a 29500 POC. It sits 29487 under Friday’s POC and a long way beneath 29700, the line where last week and the whole month parked their volume and every bounce has died. Reclaim 29700 and 29716 Friday’s high opens the repair toward 29890 the prior week’s value high. Lose 29440 Friday’s value floor and 29392 last week’s floor and 29229 June’s value low is the gate, with 29183 the shared low and 28506 June’s bottom beneath it.

CL put in another down day Friday, ranging 70.56 to 68.55 and closing 69.51 on a 69.25 POC, with that 68.55 low matching the June and prior-week floor. The overnight finally bid it back, lifting off 69.32 to 70.98 and sitting 70.21, above Friday’s whole range and back over the round 70 last week built its volume around. The war premium is fully gone now, and crude is trying to decide if 68.55 was the bottom or just another shelf on the way down. Reclaim 70.98 the overnight high and the air above runs to 73.06 last week’s value high and 73.20 June’s POC. Lose 70 and 69.25 Friday’s POC, then 68.55 the floor June and the prior week keep finding.

GC was the one green close Friday, opening 4059, running 4111, and finishing 4086 in the upper half on a 4100 POC. The overnight handed it right back, fading from 4101 down to 4062 and sitting 4079, back under Friday’s value and the 4100 POC. That is the tell on the screen this morning, gold fading while stocks bounce, the safe-haven bid still nowhere with the rate-hike crowd in control. Reclaim 4082 today’s value edge and 4100 Friday’s POC for a push toward 4107 the top of the prior week’s value and 4111 Friday’s high. Lose 4069 the overnight floor and 4050 Friday’s low and 4049 June’s value floor opens, then 3976 where last week and June share a bottom.

The Calendar

Monday, June 29 (all times CT):

- 9:30 Dallas Fed manufacturing index for June

- 10:30 3-month and 6-month bill auctions

Light board to open the week. The Dallas Fed number is second-tier and the auctions are routine, so nothing with teeth forces the open. The morning trades the levels and last week’s damage, not the data.

The Plan

ES:

ES sits 7435 on the overnight POC, coiled just under the 7442 to 7444 shelf where Friday’s value top and the week and month POC all stack. Reclaim 7444 and 7459 Friday’s high and the overnight high come first, then 7475 last week’s value high, with 7559 June’s value high the bigger target in the air above. Hold 7423 the overnight value floor and the bounce keeps its footing. Below 7408 where Friday’s and the prior week’s value floor stack, 7380 Friday’s close goes, then 7360 the low it shares with last week. Under 7360 there is nothing built until 7307, June’s low where the month did its real business.

NQ:

NQ sits 29487 on the overnight POC, under Friday’s 29550 and a long way below the 29700 wall where last week and the month stacked their volume. Reclaim 29700 and 29716 Friday’s high turns the bounce into a real repair toward 29890 last week’s upper value, then 30547 June’s value ceiling well above. Hold 29440 Friday’s value floor and the dip stays buyable. Below 29392 last week’s floor and 29377 the overnight value low, 29229 June’s value floor is the gate, then 29183 the low Friday shares with last week. Under 29183 the air opens with nothing structural until 28506, June’s bottom where the month’s volume base sits.

CL:

Crude reclaimed the round 70 overnight and trades 70.21, back over the line last week built its volume around with Friday’s whole range beneath it. Through 70.98 the overnight high there is open air up to 73.06 where the prior week’s range topped out and 73.20 June’s POC where the real supply waits. Hold 70 and the base builds from here. Lose 70 and 69.85 the overnight floor, 69.25 Friday’s POC catches the first leg, then 68.55 the floor June and the prior week keep finding. Under 68.55 there is no profile left, just the round numbers down to 67.

GC:

Gold faded back under value overnight and sits 4079 on the overnight POC, under the 4082 value edge and the 4100 Friday POC it lost. Reclaim 4082 and 4100 and the bounce targets 4107 last week’s recovery high, then 4111 Friday’s high, with the air above stranded all the way up to 4365 June’s POC. Hold 4069 the overnight floor to keep a base under it. Lose 4062 the overnight low and 4050 Friday’s low, 4049 June’s value floor opens, then 3981 last week’s lower shelf. Under that 3976 where the prior week and June share a bottom is the last shelf before the slide reopens.

The White Van Stuff

The whole screen is still positioned for the downside it just traded. The put side stays loaded across both indexes and gold gapped back under its floor overnight, the surface tilted defensive even as the chips try to bounce. Crude is the one book pressing up into its cage instead of falling out of it, the expected day a tight 67 to 71 now that the volatility has bled out with the premium.

ES owns the calm book of the four, the expected day barely a percent wide and price sitting just under the 7450 interest shelf. The 7460 same-day cap and the 7475 expected high are the marks a bounce has to clear, the 7400 put floor the first real line beneath.

NQ carries the loud book, the expected day pushing 1.74 percent wide and the volatility still cranked. Price sits on the 29500 pivot with the 29750 same-day cap overhead and the 29900 magnet above it, the 29000 put floor the deep line beneath.

CL is the one trading up into its book, the 71 put floor flipped overhead after the overnight reclaim and the 75 same-day cap the next real wall. The expected day runs a tight 67.44 to 71.02, and price sits 70.21 pressing the top of the band.

GC gapped back under its own floor overnight, the 4100 put floor a line overhead now instead of under price. The 4157 expected high caps a bounce and the 4195 magnet sits well above, the 4035 expected low and the 4000 put floor the marks beneath.

Deep breath, calm mind. Have fun out there.

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The Game Plan: Friday, June 26, 2026

Nick — Fri, 26 Jun 2026 13:47:27 GMT

Quick one here Today. NQ is the one getting carried out while gold quietly catches every dollar that runs out of tech. I have been short the rallies since this thing lost the highs and the tape finally quit making me look early. Crude is its own separate funeral, third straight week lower now that the war bid has bled out. Something abult this tape has made me not ewant to stay long. So my advice is to stalk it and come back next week. I’m patiently waiting. Get some points and go enjoy your weekend.

The Tape

ES put in a down day Thursday, opening 7485 and closing weak at 7428, below its own 7421 POC. The overnight gapped under that and never got back, parking value between 7365 and 7405 with price now 7381. It sits below Thursday’s whole value area and below 7444, the shelf the week’s sellers keep defending. Bull case is a reclaim of 7405 and the day rotates back toward 7421 and that 7444 wall. Bear case is 7385 fails, 7364 the overnight low gives, and 7307 the June low is the next shelf.

NQ is the broken one, a heavy down day Thursday from a 30153 open to a 29749 close, and the overnight kept selling, cracking clean through Thursday’s 29296 low. Value rebuilt lower between 29216 and 29558, and price is back to 29307 hugging the developing POC. It sits below Thursday’s value, below the week VAL, and a long way under the 29700 stack where Thursday, the week, and the month all parked their POC. Bull case is a reclaim of 29330 and a grind back toward that 29700 wall. Bear case is 29296 gives again and the 29211 overnight low opens the air pocket down to 28506.

CL actually had an up day Thursday, closing 72.03 right at its 72.50 high, then handed all of it back overnight. It sold from 70.40 down to 68.96 and sits 69.79, under the 70.00 week POC and VWAP it had been holding. Value is parked low between 69.13 and 70.38, and crude is back in the floor of its month-long slide. Bull case is reclaiming 70.00 and rotating up toward 71.57 Thursday POC. Bear case is the 69.13 shelf fails and 68.96 last night’s low opens discovery lower.

GC went the other way, an up day Thursday off the 3993 low into a 4041 close, then a clean overnight bid up to 4081. It sits 4070, above Thursday’s 4055 POC and above today’s 4063 VAH, the only one of the four trading above value. Bull case is 4063 holds and the run extends through 4081 toward 4135 week VAH. Bear case is 4055 gives back and 4030, the week POC, is the gate before 3975 the June low.

The Calendar

Friday, June 26 (all times CT):

- 7:30 Goods trade balance and wholesale and retail inventories, advance reads

- 9:00 Michigan consumer sentiment, final, with the inflation expectations baked in

- Late morning Fed’s Williams and Kashkari both speak

- 12:00 Baker Hughes rig count

The Plan

ES:

ES is pinned under 7385, the developing POC that capped the whole overnight, with session VWAP at 7396 just above it. Reclaim 7396 and 7405 today’s VAH and the first real test is 7421 Thursday’s POC, then 7444 week POC where the sellers have lived all week. Push through 7444 and 7479 week VAH opens, with the bigger overhead target up at 7558, last week’s value floor. Lose 7385 with sellers behind it and 7365 developing VAL goes first, then 7364 the overnight low is the line that matters. Below 7364 there is air, nothing structural until 7307, the June low where the month finally built volume.

NQ:

NQ is the one getting carried out, sitting 29307 right on the 29330 developing POC after the overnight cracked through Thursday’s low. Reclaim 29330 and 29375 week VAL is first, then 29470 session VWAP, then the wall at 29700 where Thursday, the week, and the month all stacked their POC. That 29700 is the line that has to break to call this anything but a bounce, and above it 29803 Thursday VAH and the prev-week floor up at 30353 come back into view. Lose 29330 and 29296 Thursday low goes, then 29264 week low, then 29216 where the developing VAL and last night’s low stack is the trapdoor. Below 29211 it is open air down to 28506, the June low and the only place the month built real volume.

CL:

Crude gave back all of Thursday and then some, sitting 69.79 under 70.00, the week POC and session VWAP it lost overnight. Reclaim 70.00 and 70.38 today’s VAH is first, then 70.82 Thursday VAL, then 71.57 Thursday POC where the up day built. Through there 72.50 Thursday’s high and 73.22 week VAH come back, with the real overhead supply not until 75.85, last week’s POC. Lose the 69.13 to 69.46 shelf where developing VAL and week VAL stack, and 68.96 the overnight low guards the next leg. Below 68.96 there is no volume shelf left, just price discovery toward 67 and the next round number down.

GC:

Gold is catching every dollar that runs out of tech, sitting 4070 back above 4055 Thursday POC and 4063 today’s VAH after the overnight bid. Hold 4063 and 4081 the overnight high is first, then open air up to 4135 week VAH, with the real overhead supply not until 4231 and 4250, last week’s value. Lose 4063 and 4055 Thursday POC goes, then the 4030 to 4045 shelf where the week POC, month VAL, and session VWAP all sit is where it decides. Below 4030 the bid is done and 4016 developing VAL opens, then 3993 Thursday low. Under 3993 it is back to 3975, the June low where the whole month bottomed.

The White Van Stuff

The protection is stacked and the floors already broke. The equity put floor that should have held the line sits overhead now on both ES and NQ, the options crowd leaning short into the slide instead of fading it. Crude punched below its expected range floor and gold is pressing its cap, so three of the four are trading outside the band the positioning drew.

ES: ES already lost the floor. The 7400 put floor that should have been the line is sitting overhead now, and the same-day cap is way up at 7515. Heavy interest stacks at 7375 and 7350 below, which is also the expected low for the day.

NQ: Same story one floor lower. The 29500 put floor flipped overhead overnight, and the next real shelf the options crowd is defending is 29000. The day is priced to range 29218 to 30231, and price is already pressed against the bottom near 29218 the expected low.

CL: Crude blew through its own floor. The 71 put floor and 71.75 cap are both overhead now, and price already slipped under 69.91 the expected low. The next real options floor is not until 65.

GC: Gold is the mirror image, pressing up into its cap instead of falling out of its floor. The same-day ceiling is 4090 right overhead, and a push through it puts 4111 the expected high in play. The floor the options draw is 4000, with the expected low just under it at 3983.

Protect yourself at all times. Survive and advance.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.

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The Game Plan: Thursday, June 25, 2026

Nick — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:47:31 GMT

Three days of getting the AI trade torched, and one earnings call after the bell handed it all back. Micron printed numbers that did not leave much room for argument, the chips ripped in the dark, and NQ is trading like Monday through Wednesday never happened. A true hold my beer moment. We’re so fucking back. Gold is still face-down in the dirt, crude is still leaking under 70 toward a deal nobody has signed. Balance at ATHs mixed in with a little summertime sadness. Keep it small. Racoon some points and gtfo.

The Tape

ES opened 7447 Wednesday, tagged 7496 on the morning bounce, then sold the whole session to close 7428 near the 7404 low, value 7426 to 7496 around a 7480 POC. The overnight took the chip relief and dragged it straight back up, rebuilding into that 7480 POC and pressing 7491. It sits 7475, a clean reclaim of where Wednesday’s value topped out, under the 7486 value cap and inside today’s value. Through 7491 the overnight high and 7496 Wednesday’s high, the path opens to 7543 the week and month POC. Lose 7467 the value floor and 7452 the overnight low, 7440 the week floor cracks, with 7426 Wednesday’s value low under it.

NQ did the real damage Wednesday, opening 29711, failing 29907, and cutting to a 29264 low before closing 29515 near the bottom, a hollow profile with the 29703 POC stranded up top. The chip print detonated it overnight, running 30219 and rebuilding the whole upper value into a 30100 POC. It sits 30130, back above Wednesday’s entire range and the 29730 week POC, gapped clean past where the day was supposed to top. Through 30194 the top of the overnight and 30219 the high, the repair points at 30353 last week’s value floor, then 30450 last week’s POC. Lose 30100 the overnight POC and 30020 the week’s value ceiling and 29864 June’s floor catches it, then 29856 the overnight bottom.

CL rolled into its second session on the new front month, fading Wednesday from 71.04 to 69.63 and closing 70.04 on a 70 POC, value pinned 69.94 to 70.49. The overnight kept leaking, carving a fresh 68.9 low under the contract’s short floor before bouncing back to 69.82. It sits 69.82 right on the 69.63 low the new chart keeps defending, the round 70 just overhead and the old pre-roll profile stranded miles above. Reclaim 70 and 70.49 Wednesday’s value high and the rebuild gets a base toward 72 and 73. Lose 69.63 and 68.9 the overnight base, with no profile underneath, just the 68 and 67 round numbers on the fresh contract.

GC got taken apart again Wednesday, opening 4057 and sliding to a 3975.8 low before closing 4004.9 on a 4000 POC, value 3982 to 4030. The overnight gave a soft bounce between 3986 and 4017 and could not do more, the safe-haven crowd still nowhere while the rate-hike crowd runs it. It sits 3994 under the 4000 POC and the whole June value shelf, the one chart on the screen that never got the relief memo. Reclaim 4000 and 4013 the overnight VAH and 4030 Wednesday’s ceiling opens a push toward 4094 June’s floor. Lose 3986 the overnight base, then 3976 where Wednesday, the week, and June all share a low and the air opens under, 3950 the next round number.

The Calendar

- 7:30 AM CT, the May PCE inflation read, the Fed’s preferred gauge, stacked with durable goods, the final first-quarter GDP, and weekly jobless claims

- 9:30 AM CT, weekly natural gas storage

- 10:00 AM CT, Kansas City Fed manufacturing

- 12:00 PM CT, 7-year note auction

- 2:40 PM CT, the Fed’s Williams speaks

The Plan

ES:

ES reclaimed Wednesday’s 7480 POC overnight and sits 7475 pressing the 7486 value top, the bounce trying to prove it has legs. Through 7491 the overnight high and 7496 Wednesday’s high, the upside opens 7543 where the week and June POC stack, then 7558 the week value top sitting on last week’s floor, 7599 the week high, and 7613 last week’s POC where the real volume waits. Hold 7467 the overnight floor and the dip stays a bounce. Below 7467 and 7452 the overnight low fails, 7440 the week floor catches the first leg, then 7426 Wednesday’s value low and 7404 where Wednesday and the week share a low. Under that there is no profile built until 7307 June’s low where the month did its business.

NQ:

NQ clawed back everything it lost overnight and sits 30130 back over Wednesday’s whole range, the chip print turning the worst session of the run into a gap straight back up. Through 30194 the top of the overnight and 30219 the high, the recovery targets 30353 last week’s value floor, then 30450 last week’s POC and 30620 June’s POC stacked above, with 30759 last week’s value ceiling and 30915 the high the prize beyond. Hold 30100 the overnight POC and the gap stays bought. Below it 30020 the week’s value ceiling and 29864 June’s floor fail, 29856 the overnight low goes, then 29730 the week POC and 29515 Wednesday’s close. Under that 29264 the Wednesday and week low is the gate, with 28506 June’s low where the month’s volume base sits beneath it.

CL:

Crude is two sessions into the new front month and trades 69.82, leaning on the 69.63 low the fresh chart keeps defending with the round 70 just above. Reclaim 70 and 70.49 Wednesday’s value high and the rebuild gets a base toward 71, then 72 and 73 where the early volume on the contract starts to cluster. Hold 69.63 and the floor holds. Lose 69.63 and 68.9 the overnight bottom and there is no profile built underneath on the new contract, just the 68 then 67 round numbers below.

GC:

Gold is the holdout, trading 3994 under the 4000 POC and the entire June value shelf with no safe-haven bid showing up. Reclaim 4000 and 4013 the overnight VAH and 4030 Wednesday’s ceiling and the bounce has a case toward 4094 June’s value floor, then 4151 the week’s value high, 4160 last week’s low, and 4250 last week’s POC where the gold crowd lost the most. Hold 3986 the overnight bottom and the base holds together. Lose 3986 and 3976 where Wednesday, the week, and June share a low and the air opens beneath, 3950 the next round number then 3900 under it.

The White Van Stuff

The whole screen is still positioned for the downside it just traded, even with the chips ripping overnight. The put side stays loaded across both indexes, the surface tilted defensive into a tape that already broke and then snapped back. Gold gapped below its own floor again, and crude’s book is a different planet from where the fresh contract actually trades.

ES owns the calm book of the four, the expected day a single percent wide and price sitting just under the 7490 line that should pull it. The 7500 same-day cap and the 7503 expected high are the marks a continuation has to clear, the 7400 interest shelf the first real thing beneath.

NQ carries the loud book, the expected day pushing 1.72 percent wide, and the overnight rip ran it clean past the 30022 top of that range. Price sits right on the 30120 same-day cap with the 30022 expected high flipped underneath, the 29825 magnet beneath that.

CL still owns the loudest surface on the board, the 90 cap and the 79 magnet a universe away from a contract trading under 70. Down at price the 72.27 expected high caps any bounce and the 70 floor sits right overhead, the 68.41 expected low the line just beneath.

GC gapped clean below its own floor again, the 4000 put floor now a line overhead instead of under price. The 4075 expected high caps the bounce, the 4290 magnet a long way up, and the 3942 expected low the next real mark beneath.

The levels are there. The map is drawn. Just read the tape.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

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The Game Plan: Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Nick — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 12:58:05 GMT

Violent day yesterday, and now the tape finally stopped to catch its breath. The overnight quit going straight down, bounced everything off the lows, and now the indexes are sitting in the wreckage trying to decide if Monday and Tuesday were the whole move or just the warmup. None of it really matters until tonight. Micron prints after the bell, and the entire AI trade is leaning over its screens waiting for one earnings line. SpaceX came back to reality too. Really quiet overnight session to be honest. Summer is here and I’m not trying to stay at charts all day.

The Tape

ES sold the chip rout Tuesday, ranging 7415 to 7491 and closing 7435 near the lows. The overnight stopped the bleed, holding 7439 and grinding back to 7467 with value rebuilding around 7448. It reclaimed Tuesday’s 7444 POC and the 7435 close and now presses the top of today’s thin value at 7458. Above 7467 the overnight high opens 7468 Tuesday’s value top and 7491 the session high; below 7441 and 7431 Tuesday’s value floor the air runs to 7307 June’s low. It sits 7456, back on top of yesterday’s value.

NQ was ground zero Tuesday, knifing from 30047 to close 29650 at the lows as the memory names got torched. The overnight bounced it off 29734 up to 29884 and value rebuilt at 29820, the first footing buyers have found since the selling started. It sits 29802, back above Tuesday’s 29730 POC and inside today’s value under the 29871 top. Above 29871 and the 29884 overnight high the repair points at 30047 Tuesday’s high, then 30353 last week’s value floor. Below 29742 and the 29577 Tuesday low nothing is built until 28506 June’s low where the month’s volume sits.

CL rolled to the new front month overnight, and the whole old chart went with it, prices resetting a couple bucks lower into the August contract. There is no profile built here yet, the session starting fresh at 70.98 with the round numbers the only marks that travel across the roll. The 75 area belongs to a different contract now, so the playable cage is 72 and 73 overhead, 70 underfoot. Hold 70 and the rebuild starts from here; lose it and 69 is the next round number with open air beneath. It sits 70.98, building its first session on the new contract.

GC got sold right next to the stocks again, then the overnight took it apart, sliding from 4145 down to 4022 as the rate-hike crowd buried any safe-haven bid. It sits 4028, below the whole prior session and below June’s value, the 4072 month low now a ceiling overhead. Reclaim 4064 today’s value low and 4086 the session POC for a push toward 4114 the overnight high and 4120 today’s value top. Below 4022 the overnight low there is 4000 round, then air. It sits 4028, leaning on the lows with the month’s value stranded above.

The Calendar

- 9:00 AM CT, New Home Sales for May

- 9:30 AM CT, EIA crude oil inventories

- 12:00 PM CT, 5-year note auction

- 3:00 PM CT, bank stress test results

The Plan

ES:

ES reclaimed Tuesday’s 7444 POC overnight and sits 7456 pressing the 7458 value top, the bounce trying to prove itself. Above 7467 the overnight high and 7468 Tuesday’s value top, the upside opens 7491 the session high, then 7543 the week and month POC and 7558 last week’s value floor where the real volume waits. Hold 7448 today’s POC and the dip stays a bounce. Below 7441 today’s value low and 7431 Tuesday’s value floor it rolls back over, 7420 then 7415 the Tuesday low next. Under there nothing is built until 7307 June’s low where the month did its business.

NQ:

NQ found its first footing at 29820 after Tuesday’s knife and sits 29802 back above the 29730 POC. Above 29871 today’s value top and the 29884 overnight high, the repair runs to 30047 Tuesday’s high, then 30353 last week’s value floor and 30450 last week’s POC stacked above. Hold 29742 today’s value low to keep the bounce alive. Below it and the 29577 Tuesday low fails, the air opens with nothing structural in the way. The next real shelf is 28506 June’s low where the month’s volume base sits.

CL:

Crude rolled to the new front month and trades 70.98 with no profile built yet, the old contract’s chart stranded a couple bucks overhead. The playable structure is round numbers until the session fills in, 72 then 73 the marks above, 70 the line underfoot. Hold 70 and the rebuild gets a base toward 72. Lose 70 and 69 opens with open air beneath on the fresh contract.

GC:

Gold gapped through everything overnight and sits 4028, below June’s value with the 4072 month low now a ceiling. Reclaim 4064 today’s value low and 4086 the session POC for a push toward 4114 the overnight high and 4120 today’s value top, then 4140 Tuesday’s value floor above. Hold 4022 the overnight low to keep a base under it. Lose 4022 and 4000 round is the next line, with air beneath into the 3900s. The prior session’s 4145 POC is a long way back up now.

The White Van Stuff

The whole screen is positioned for more downside after two days of it. The put side is loaded across the indexes, gold gapped clean below its entire book the same way the chips did, and crude’s whole surface reset with the roll. Calm on the S&P, loud everywhere else.

ES has the quietest book of the four, the expected day only 0.87 percent wide and price sitting mid-band. The 7440 same-day floor is just beneath, the 7503 expected high and 7525 magnet the marks that matter on a bounce.

NQ owns the loud book, the expected day 1.74 percent wide and the volatility still cranked. Price sits on the 29800 interest shelf, the 30183 expected high and the 29875 same-day floor both flipped overhead after the gap down.

CL reset its whole surface with the roll, the band running 71.18 to 75.24 on the prior contract with price already below the floor of it. The 72.50 same-day floor and 74.25 same-day cap are the playable marks above, the 70 put floor the deep line right under price.

GC did what the chips did, gapping clean below its whole book. The 4091 expected low and 4100 put floor are both stranded overhead now, the 4000 put floor the deep line with nothing same-day built beneath price.

Rule #76 No Excuses. Play like a champion.

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The Game Plan: Monday, June 22, 2026

Nick — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 13:11:38 GMT

The peace talks dropped a roadmap-to-a-deal headline over the weekend, crude took it as permission to keep bleeding, and gold finally quit falling long enough to bounce off the 4150 floor it dug Friday. The indexes did the boring thing while the grills were going, NQ grinding back toward the highs like last week’s hawkish Fed scare already got filed under nothing-happened. Light board, nobody on it but Waller at 8, and this is the first real session in four days. Could be the quietest start to the week in recent memory. Maybe too quiet.

The Tape

ES spent Friday’s holiday session in a paper-thin range, closing 7556 and telling you the long weekend really started Thursday. The overnight dipped to 7513 on the Sunday reopen, bought it all back, and parked 7562 right on the 7563 session POC, back inside last week’s 7558 value shelf. Through 7577 the overnight high the repair opens 7613 where the week and month POC stack, then 7636 the ceiling and 7649 last week’s high. Lose 7539 the overnight value base and 7513 the low and 7472 last week’s bottom comes back into play. It sits 7562, dead on the overnight POC.

NQ led all weekend, taking the overnight up to 30828 and sitting 30748, well above Friday’s thin holiday range and last week’s 30450 volume shelf. The Sunday tape rebuilt the entire upper value area, the tell that last week’s flush was positioning and not a top. Through 30828 the overnight top the path reopens to 30915 last week’s high, then the 31100 June high where the records sit. Lose 30671 Friday’s POC and 30610 the overnight POC and 30450 the week and month stack is the line, then 30353 last week’s floor. It sits 30748, pressing the session high.

CL keeps leaking as the talks make progress, slipping to 76.5 under Friday’s 76.63 value low and leaning on the 76.0 line last week built its volume around. Friday’s holiday session held a tight 76 to 77.66 and settled 77.54, and the overnight gave that right back. The whole pre-deal chart is stranded overhead, with no real shelf until 80.15 last week’s value ceiling. Reclaim 76.63 and 77.54 and a repair starts, otherwise, lose 76.0 and 73.60 last week’s low and the floor gives. It sits 76.5, pinned under value with nothing built below.

GC is the one that finally bounced, running from a 4151 overnight low back to 4238 and sitting 4222 just under the 4225 line value built around. Friday closed 4172 near the lows of a brutal three-week slide, and the Sunday tape bought the whole thing back overnight. It is still under last week’s broken structure, with 4231 the value base and 4250 the POC the gold crowd lost on the way down. Reclaim 4225 and 4233 and the bounce targets 4250, otherwise lose 4201 the overnight floor and 4172 Friday’s close and 4160 reopens. It sits 4222, an oversold bounce into the first real wall.

The Calendar

- 8:00 AM CT, Fed’s Waller speaks

- 10:30 AM CT, 3-month and 6-month bill auctions

The Plan

ES:

ES dipped to 7513 on the Sunday reopen, bought it back, and sits 7562 right on the 7563 overnight POC, holding above Friday’s thin close. Through 7577 the overnight high the repair runs 7613 where the week and month POC stack together, then 7636 the week’s ceiling, 7649 last week’s high, and 7693 June’s high in the clear air above. Hold 7539 the overnight value shelf and the dip stays a bounce. Below 7539 fails and 7513 the overnight low is the gate, then 7472 last week’s bottom where the selloff stopped. Under that it is open to 7307 June’s floor where the month’s real volume sits.

NQ:

NQ is the leader, running to 30828 overnight and sitting 30748, above the 30711 overnight value top and Friday’s holiday range. Through 30828 the overnight top the path reopens to 30915 last week’s high, then 30831 June’s value ceiling and the 31100 June high where the records live. Hold 30711 and dips stay buyable against the overnight value. Below 30671 Friday’s POC and 30610 the overnight POC fails, 30450 the week and month POC stack is the trapdoor, then 30353 last week’s floor. Under that the air runs to 29923 last week’s low where the volume shelf sits.

CL:

Crude keeps bleeding premium as the talks make progress, slipping to 76.5 under Friday’s 76.63 value low and leaning on the 76.0 line last week built its volume around. Reclaim 76.63 and 77.54 Friday’s high and close and the repair argument starts, but the next real shelf is stranded way up at 80.15 last week’s value ceiling, then 86.66 and 91.30 where June’s volume sits overhead. Hold 76.0 and the slide pauses. Lose 76.0 and 73.60 last week’s low and the base gives way. Under it there is almost no profile, just the 73 and 72 round numbers price has not visited in a long time.

GC:

Gold finally caught a bounce, running from a 4151 overnight low up to 4238 and sitting 4222 just under the 4225 line value built around overnight. Reclaim 4225 and 4233 where the overnight ceiling and last week’s lower value stack, and the bounce has a case toward 4250 last week’s POC, then 4365 June’s POC well above. Hold 4201 the overnight floor and the bounce keeps its footing. Lose 4201 and 4172 Friday’s close and 4160 where Friday and last week share a low is the line. Under that it reopens 4151 the overnight low and air to 4120 June’s value base where the month’s volume sits.

The White Van Stuff

The index books are about as calm as they get, both expected days tight and positioning leaning bullish under a couple of caps a long way overhead. Gold’s book sits balanced with price pinned between a near floor and the caps it lost last week.

ES has the calmest book on the screen, the expected day under a percent wide and the 7700 cap a different planet overhead. The 7545 magnet is the near-shelf under price, with the put floor parked way down at 7400. It sits 7562, mid-cage with room up to the 7625 expected top.

NQ‘s book reads the same, bullish and roomy, with the 31000 same-day cap and the 32000 cap the lines a breakout aims at. The 30490 magnet and the 30425 put floor stack just under price. It sits 30748, mid-cage with the caps overhead.

CL still owns the loudest book on the board, the cap stranded way up at 100 and the magnet at 81.55, both a different universe from where price trades. The only marks near price are the 76.75 interest just overhead and the 75 area beneath, and below the expected low the book thins to nothing. It sits 76.5, mid-band with the whole surface tilted toward where crude used to be.

GC has a balanced book, the 4382 cap the line that capped last week and the 4287 expected top the nearer wall. The 4258 pivot and 4233 interest sit just overhead, with the put floor down at 4183 the next real line beneath. It sits 4222, leaning on the bounce into a stack of overhead interest.

Survive and advance. In that spirit, join Stowe and me Tonight as VibesTraders brings you show #3 on our lineup. VibeCheck - A Mental Game segment live at 8pm CT.

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The Game Plan: Thursday, June 18, 2026

Nick — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 13:36:27 GMT

The Fed finally said the quiet part out loud, and for one afternoon, the bears got paid. Its over now as we are so back once again. Warsh’s first meeting left rates alone but the dot plot flipped to where a hike is on the table and a cut is a 2027 problem, and the indexes sold the whole thing into the close. ES and NQ both went out on the lows, gold got hauled behind the woodshed from 4403 down to a 4254 close. Then the screen rewrote itself overnight. Somebody decided Intel and Apple building chips together is the only story that matters, the semis ripped, and the indexes clawed the entire drop right back. Guess we are just going to forget about Apple also saying they're raising prices due to the rise in commodity prices. Gold is the one chart that never got the second memo.

The Tape

ES opened 7595 Wednesday, tagged 7604, then sold the decision all afternoon down to 7472 and closed 7492 on the lows, value 7535 to 7599 around a 7586 POC. The overnight bought every bit of it back, basing 7530 to 7568 and dragging price to 7558 on the 7555 session POC, back under the 7572 week value floor it lost on the way down. Reclaim 7572 and yesterday’s 7586 POC and the repair runs 7613 the week POC then 7636 the week’s ceiling. Lose 7540 the session floor and 7530 the overnight low and 7492 reopens, then 7472 where yesterday and the week share a low. It sits 7558, a full round trip back to value.

NQ took the worst of it, opening 30526, failing 30545, and sliding to 29923 before closing 29994 near the lows, a hollow session with the 30450 POC stranded up top. The semis dragged it straight back overnight, running 30500 and reclaiming that 30450 POC where it sits 30485 now. Through 30500 the overnight high and 30510 yesterday’s value top, the path opens 30737 the week’s value ceiling and 30820 June’s, with 30915 the week high above. Lose 30400 the session POC and 30335 the floor and 30266 yesterday’s value low catches it, then 30139 last week’s high, 30065 the week and month floor, into 29524 last week’s volume shelf. It sits 30485, back above the line it lost.

CL poked 80 on the Wednesday spike, couldn’t hold it, and closed 75.99 with value 76.18 to 77.54 around a 76.61 POC. The overnight kept leaning, carving a fresh 74.13 low on the peace optimism before settling 75.2, under everything it built and under the 76 week POC. The real volume does not show up again until 80.25 the week’s value top, then the pre-crash shelf at 87.38 last week’s floor and 91.30 the prior-week POC miles overhead. Reclaim 75.62 the session top and 76.18 yesterday’s value low and a repair starts, otherwise lose 74.77 the session floor and 74.13 the overnight bottom and price is into the 73s where almost nothing has traded. It sits 75.2, pinned at the lows.

GC is the wreck of the group, spiking to 4403 Wednesday before the projections flipped it and gold collapsed to 4237, closing 4254 with the 4250 POC built on the way down. The overnight gave a dead-cat push toward 4345 and got sold again, printing a fresh 4257 low and sitting 4269 now, below the 4335 session POC and the 4335 week value floor. Reclaim 4285 the session value low and 4335 and the bounce has a case toward 4361 the week POC and 4364 yesterday’s value top. Lose 4257 the overnight low, with 4254 yesterday’s close and 4237 the session and week low cracks, opening air to 4175 where last week’s volume sits, then 4073 the value base under it. It sits 4269, below every line that mattered.

The Calendar

- 7:30 AM CT, weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed factory read

- 9:00 AM CT, the Leading Index

- 9:30 AM CT, weekly natural gas storage

- 12:00 PM CT, the oil rig count

The Plan

ES:

ES round-tripped the decision and sits 7558 right back on the 7555 session POC, a hair under the 7572 week value floor it lost in the selloff. Reclaim 7572 and yesterday’s 7586 POC and the repair runs 7599 yesterday’s value top, 7613 the week and month POC stacked together, then 7636 the week’s ceiling and 7647 June’s, with 7649 the week high and 7693 the month high the air above that. Hold 7540 the session floor and the dip stays a bounce. Below 7540 fails and 7530 the overnight low goes, then 7492 yesterday’s close and 7472 where yesterday and the week share a low. Under that it opens to 7499 last week’s POC and 7420 last week’s value floor where the prior leg did its work.

NQ:

NQ reclaimed the 30450 Wednesday POC overnight on the back of the chip trade and sits 30485 with the bounce intact as long as it holds there. Through 30500 the overnight high and 30510 Wednesday’s value top, the recovery targets 30695 May’s POC, 30737 the week’s upper value, and 30820 June’s, with 30915 the week high and 31100 the month high the prize above. Hold 30450 and dips stay buyable against the session base. Below 30400 the session POC and 30335 the floor fails, 30266 Wednesday’s value low catches the first leg, then 30139 last week’s high and 30065 where the week and month value bottom out. Under that the air runs to 29524 last week’s high-volume shelf.

CL:

Crude is trading 75.2 under everything, with the 75.62 session top and the 76 week POC the first two lines it has to win back. Reclaim them and 76.18 Wednesday’s value low and the repair argument starts, but the next real volume is stranded way up at 80.25 the week’s upper edge, then 87.38 last week’s floor and 91.30 last week’s POC where the pre-crash shelf sits. Hold 74.77 the session floor and the slide pauses. Lose 74.77 and 74.13 the overnight bottom and there is no profile underneath, just the 73 and 72 round numbers price has not touched in months. Below 72 the next built volume does not arrive until 70 round.

GC:

Gold is the one that broke, trading 4269 with value gone above it, the 4285 session low and the 4335 week floor both lost on the way down. Reclaim 4285 and 4335 the session POC and the bounce has a target at 4361 the week POC, 4364 Wednesday’s value top, then 4388 the week’s high edge and 4403 where Wednesday and the week share a high. Hold 4257 the overnight base and the range holds together. Lose 4257 and 4254 Wednesday’s close and 4237 the session and week low cracks, opening air to 4175 the prior-week volume pocket. Under that it runs to 4103 June’s value floor and 4073 last week’s value base.

The White Van Stuff

The hawkish projections reset every book on the screen. The index surfaces stayed tight and balanced even through the round trip, both sitting right at the top of their expected day with the real caps a long way overhead. Crude’s book is still the loudest by a mile, run below its floor again, while gold spent the night falling clean out the bottom of its own expected range.

ES has a calm, balanced book, the expected day only nine-tenths of a percent wide and price sitting right on the 7564 top of it. The 7545 magnet is the line directly under price, the 7800 cap a different planet overhead, and yesterday’s same-day floor at 7490 now sits below price after the bounce.

NQ‘s book leans heavier on the put side than the index above it, but price still ran to the 30466 top of its expected day overnight. The 30750 same-day cap and the 31000 cap are the lines a breakout aims at, while the 30225 magnet and the 30200 same-day floor stack just beneath price.

CL still owns the loudest book on the board, the magnet parked way up at 83.6 and the cap a different universe at 101. Down at price the lines that matter are the 75.77 same-day floor it just lost overhead and the 74.41 expected low beneath, with 72.74 the last real interest under that.

GC spent the night falling clean out the bottom of its expected day, price 4269 now under both the 4306 expected low and the 4328 magnet that should have caught it. The 4228 same-day floor is the next real line beneath, with the caps stacked overhead at 4383 and 4422.

Trust your prep. Trade your levels. The rest is noise. Don’t come on our stream and complain.

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The Game Plan: Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Nick — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 12:44:59 GMT

Happy FOMC Day to those who celebrate. Welcome to the new Fed Daddy Guy as the wife calls him. Rotational day made for an interesting Tuesday. ES fading off its own record close and NQ handed back most of the rip, and this morning all four charts are coiled into the tightest overnight ranges they have shown in a week. The market could move on Warsh’s comments for the first time in a presser. So head on swivel. In lighter news tonight XYZ and I will once again be bringing you MidweekVibes, an EDU trading show at 8pm CT. I may even have AI-MAXXXED a new preroll video. Subscribe to the YouTube here - but I will be bringing it live on Substack as well.

Powell at 1:30pm instead of the presser

The Tape

ES faded its record close Tuesday, opening 7627, tagging 7636, then selling the whole session to close 7588 on the lows with value 7591 to 7621 around a 7614 POC. The overnight did nothing to fix it, holding a tight 7585 to 7612 band and parking 7593 right on Tuesday’s value floor, under the 7614 POC and the matching week POC overhead. Reclaim 7606 and 7614 and the bounce targets 7621 the value ceiling, 7633 the week’s, then 7647 June’s value top. Lose 7582 where Tuesday’s low sits on the week low and 7553 last week’s high opens the gap, 7509 the ceiling under it, then 7499 last week’s POC. It sits 7593, coiled under value.

NQ took the worst of it Tuesday, dumping from a 30812 open to 30302 and closing 30310 near the lows, a hollow profile with the 30450 POC stranded up top and value 30324 to 30673. The overnight bought it back, basing 30418 to 30584 and reclaiming that 30450 POC where it sits 30461 now. Through 30535 the week’s value base and 30584 the overnight high, the path runs 30673 Tuesday’s value top and the 30695 May POC into the 30850 week shelf. Below 30418 the overnight low and 30302, the Tuesday low stacked on the week low, it thins out fast toward 30139 last week’s high, then 29983 and the 29524 last-week POC where the volume lives. It sits 30461, back on the line it lost.

CL keeps grinding lower, closing Tuesday 76.87 on a 76.0 POC with value 75.53 to 77.05, then carving a fresh 74.59 low overnight before bouncing back to 76.69. That puts it right on Tuesday’s value with the 76.0 POC underneath and the whole pre-deal chart stranded miles overhead. Reclaim 77.05 the ceiling and 78.07 Tuesday’s high and the first repair is on, but the real volume does not show up again until 80.37 the week’s top and 87.38 last week’s floor. Lose 75.50 the week low and 74.59 the overnight bottom and there is no profile underneath, only round numbers nobody has traded in months. It sits 76.69, bouncing inside a chart with no floor built yet.

GC chopped a tight Tuesday, running 4333 to 4376 and closing 4355 with value 4346 to 4368 around a 4359 POC, no trend either way. The overnight tightened it further, holding 4335 to 4355 and sitting 4344 just under Tuesday’s value low with the 4340 week floor right beneath. Reclaim 4359 the POC and 4368 the value high and 4376 Tuesday’s high opens, then 4391 the week high and 4409 last month’s low are the gates that mean something. Lose 4333 where Tuesday and the week share a low and 4284 last week’s value top opens the air, 4231 last week’s close, then the 4175 POC down deep. It sits 4344, the tightest coil on the board.

The Calendar

- 7:30 AM CT, Retail Sales (May), the morning’s real number

- 9:30 AM CT, weekly crude inventories

- 1:00 PM CT, the Fed’s rate decision and fresh projections, dot plot attached

- 1:30 PM CT, FOMC press conference

The Plan

ES:

ES is coiled 7593 under the 7614 stack where Tuesday’s POC and the week POC sit together, the line a record-close fade left it under. Reclaim 7606 the overnight open and 7614, and the repair runs 7621 Tuesday’s value ceiling, 7633 the week’s, then 7647 June’s value top and 7649 the week high, with 7660 May’s POC and 7693 the June high the air above that. Hold 7591 the value floor and the dip stays a coil. Below 7582 fails, the floor Tuesday shares with the week, and the gap opens to 7553 last week’s high, then 7509 the ceiling and 7499 last week’s POC where the prior leg did its business, with 7420 last week’s floor.

NQ:

NQ clawed back the 30450 Tuesday POC overnight after the worst session of the four, sitting 30461 with the bounce intact as long as it holds there. Through 30535 the week’s value base and 30584 the overnight high, the recovery targets 30662 May’s floor, 30673 Tuesday’s ceiling, and the 30695 May POC, with the 30850 week shelf and 30915 high the bigger prize. Hold 30450 and dips stay buyable against the overnight base. Lose 30418 the overnight low and 30302 the week low, and a break drops the floor toward 30139 last week’s high, then 29983 the value high and the 29524 last-week POC where the real volume sits.

CL:

Crude is trying to build a base it has not earned yet, holding 76.69 on the 76.0 Tuesday POC after the overnight probed a fresh 74.59 low and got bought. Reclaim 77.05 the ceiling and 78.07 Tuesday’s high and the repair argument starts, but the next real volume is stranded way up at 80.37 the week’s top, then 87.38 last week’s floor and 91.30 last week’s POC, which tells you the whole story of this collapse, with 92.47 May’s floor the marker above that. Hold 75.53 the value base and the bounce keeps its footing. Lose 75.50 and 74.59 the overnight bottom and there is no chart underneath.

GC:

Gold is wound tighter than anything else on the screen, sitting 4344 just under the 4359 Tuesday POC and the matching week POC, with no trend to lean on either way. Reclaim 4359 and 4368 the value high and 4376 Tuesday’s high comes back, then 4391 the week high and 4409 last month’s low are the gates that turn this chop into a recovery, with 4474 and 4563 the lines far above. Hold 4340 the week’s floor and the range stays intact. Lose 4333 the shared low and 4284 last week’s value top opens the air, then 4231 last week’s close and the 4175 POC where the prior month built its base.

The White Van Stuff

Two charts are dead calm and two are not. The index books are about as quiet as they get going into a Fed day, positioning bullish and the expected moves tight, both pinned mid-cage well under their caps. Crude’s book got run through the floor again with every same-day line it had now overhead, while gold sits glued to its magnet with the cap a hair above, the tightest pin going.

ES has a calm book under a tape that just faded, the whole same-day surface stacked overhead from the 7651 expected high up to the 7700 cap with nothing urgent in between. Under price the 7570 floor is the near shelf, and the 7515 magnet.

NQ‘s book reads the same, bullish and wide, sitting right on its 30450 same-day pivot with the 30765 expected high and the 31000 cap the lines a breakout would aim at. The 30000 put floor and 29975.

CL‘s book is still the loudest of the four, the cap parked way up at 79.82 today and 84.62 the magnet, both a different planet from where price trades. The only line near price is 75.78 where the same-day floor and pivot stack, and below the 73.84 expected low the book thins to nothing.

GC is the most wound-up book on the screen, price glued to its 4333 pivot and 4328 magnet with the 4383 cap a breath overhead and the 4280 expected low the floor that matters. The whole thing is balanced, calls and puts close to even.

New man at the podium. Be safe and have fun out there.

New Show coming Tuesday nights with Nick & Stowe

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The Game Plan: Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Nick — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 13:39:00 GMT

The Tape

ES spent Monday grinding the gap higher, opening 7599, running to 7649, and closing 7630 right on the highs with value built 7611 to 7634 around a 7627 POC. The overnight did nothing with it, holding a 7616 to 7634 band and parking price back on that 7627 POC where it sits 7623 now. Above 7634 the overnight top and 7649 the high, the only thing left is 7693 the June high in clean air, because a close on the highs leaves nothing marked overhead. Below 7611 the value floor opens 7598 Monday’s low, and under that it’s a gap down to last week’s 7553 high with nothing in between. Tight range, record close, sitting on the line.

NQ led again Monday, opening 30633 and trending to a 30873 close near the 30915 high, leaving value 30746 to 30910 around a 30855 POC. The overnight poked a fresh high at 30975 then gave it right back, sliding to 30811 where it sits now, back under Monday’s POC. Reclaim 30855 and the breakout’s alive, with 30915 the high and 30975 the overnight top guarding the air up to 31098 June’s ceiling and the 31100 high. Below 30746 the floor cracks and 30633 Monday’s low is next, then it’s thin all the way down to last week’s 30139 high. The overnight already showed you 30975 is where the sellers wait.

CL spent Monday looking like it found a floor, holding 79.80 and closing 81.32 with value packed 80.10 to 80.73 around an 80.56 POC, the 80 line finally acting like a base. The overnight tore it up, opening 80.6 and cutting through 79.80 and the whole pocket down to 76.88 before settling 77.33. It sits 77.54, below everything Monday built with the 76.88 low right underneath and three weeks of stranded value overhead. Reclaim 79.02 today’s ceiling and 80.10 Monday’s floor and there’s a repair argument, otherwise the 80 base is just the latest shelf to flip into resistance. Below 76.88 there’s no profile, only round numbers, because crude hasn’t traded down here in a long time.

GC put in a rejection Monday, opening 4348, pushing to 4391, then failing and closing 4342 below its own value with the 4385 POC stranded up high and the area running 4361 to 4390. The overnight bought it back, basing to 4376 and sitting 4366 now, inside Monday’s range but still under the 4385 POC it couldn’t hold. Reclaim 4385 and 4391 the high comes back into play, with 4409 last month’s low the gate that actually means something above. Lose 4361 the floor and 4340 where today’s volume sits, and 4338 Monday’s low opens the slide toward last week’s 4284 ceiling. Two-way chop with a heavy close, no trend to trust yet.

The Calendar

- 7:15 AM CT, ADP weekly employment read

- 7:30 AM CT, Housing Starts and Building Permits (May), plus Import and Export Prices

- 12:00 PM CT, 20-Year Bond Auction

- 3:30 PM CT, weekly crude inventory, the private read

Quiet board, all of it second-tier. Housing and the import-price read print at 7:30 but neither moves a tape that’s been trading a peace headline for three days. The afternoon crude inventory is the only number with oil’s name on it, and it lands after the cash close, so it’s an overnight problem. Markets are closed Friday for the holiday, so the back half of this week thins out fast.

The Plan

ES:

ES is sitting on the 7627 Monday POC after a record close, parked 7623 inside a value area it never left overnight. Above 7634 the overnight high and Monday’s ceiling, 7649 the high is the last mark before 7693 the June high in open air, because a close on the highs leaves nothing but blue sky above. Hold 7611 the value floor and the read stays long. Below 7611 fails and 7598 Monday’s low is the gate, then a gap down to 7553 last week’s high, 7509 the ceiling under it, and 7499 last week’s POC where the selloff volume sits, with 7486 June’s floor, beneath that. Nothing says sell this yet.

NQ:

NQ tagged a fresh 30975 overnight then slipped back under the 30855 Monday POC, sitting 30811 and handing the breakout crowd a small headache. Reclaim 30855 and the path reopens through 30915 the high and 30975 the overnight top into 31098 June’s ceiling and the 31100 high, all-time-high air above that. Hold 30746 the value floor and the pullback is just noise. Below 30746 fails and 30633 Monday’s low is the gate, then the profile thins out badly toward 30139 last week’s high, 29983 the ceiling under it, and 29524 last week’s POC where the volume actually lives. The overnight already marked 30975 as the line sellers defend.

CL:

Crude looked like it based at 80 on Monday and the overnight proved it was just a ledge, cutting through 79.80 and the whole pocket down to 76.88 where it sits 77.54 now. A bounce has to reclaim 79.02 today’s ceiling and 80.10 Monday’s floor before anyone talks repair, and even then 80.56 the POC and 81.47 the high cap the old base. Above all of it the real volume doesn’t show up again until 87.38 last week’s floor and 91.30 last week’s POC, which tells you how far this fell. Below 76.88 there’s no chart to read, just 76 and 75 and whatever round number the selling stops at.

GC:

Gold pushed to 4391 Monday, couldn’t hold it, and closed 4342 under its own value, the overnight buying it back to 4366 but leaving it stuck below the 4385 POC it failed at. Reclaim 4385 and 4391 the high is back in play, then 4409 last month’s low is the gate that turns chop into a recovery, with 4474 and 4563 the lines far above. Hold 4361 the value floor and the range stays intact. Lose 4361 and 4340 where today’s volume sits, and 4338 Monday’s low opens the air toward 4284 last week’s ceiling, then 4230 the value base and 4175 last week’s POC underneath.

The White Van Stuff

Two different worlds in the books today: the index surfaces are about as calm as they get, positioning bullish and the expected moves tight, while price rides the middle of the cage with the caps a long way overhead. Crude is the opposite, the loudest vol on the board by a mile.

ES has a benign book under a record close, the whole same-day surface stacked overhead from the 7692 expected high up to the 7700 cap with room to run into it. Under price the 7600 interest is the near shelf, and the real magnet down at 7455 is a different conversation entirely.

NQ‘s book reads the same, bullish and roomy, the 31100 same-day cap and the 31309 expected high the lines a breakout aims at. The 30700 interest is the near support under price, with the 29800 magnet the deep pull if the whole thing rolls.

CL got its book run through the floor a second straight night, and now the 80 put floor and the 78.30 expected low both sit overhead as resistance. The only marks left near price are the 77 and 76 interest it’s resting on, and below that the book just ends. Vol this loud and a chart with no bottom means the band is enormous and crude will use every inch.

GC is the tightest pin on the board, price glued to its 4345 magnet with the 4400 cap right overhead and the 4500 same-day cap behind it. Below, the 4283 same-day floor is the line that matters, and the book stays balanced the whole way down. This is a coiled book, not a directional one.

Three charts, three speeds. Only one of them is actually offering a trade this morning, and it’s the one with no floor.

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The Game Plan: Monday, June 15, 2026

Nick — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 13:04:44 GMT

Happy Rollover/Opex Week. My least favorite week to trade. Mainly because it’s a bit messy with volume split on both contracts. No I am not having the back adjust vs non back adjust contracts debate again. You know who’s wrong. The Iran deal that was supposed to maybe land by Sunday actually got done, the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and the whole board repriced over the weekend the way it always seems to right when you want it to wait for Monday. Crude gave back what was left of its war premium and is trading an 80 handle, prices it hadn’t printed in months. Note: This is the last daily plan that will showcase numbers for the June contracts in ES/NQ. Lets have a good week.

The Tape

ES closed Friday at 7433 on a 7434 POC with value 7408 to 7443, the kind of coiled session that shows up when everyone knows the weekend holds the answer. The gap did the talking, lifting it into a tight 7518 to 7537 overnight range and parking it on a shelf that means something, last week’s 7524 value floor sitting right on May’s 7529 ceiling. Above 7537 the overnight top, the path opens to 7611 May’s high and then 7624 where last week did its heaviest business. Lose 7508 overnight value and the gap starts filling, 7461 Friday’s high, 7443 the value ceiling, then 7434 the POC back toward the 7408 floor. It sits 7528, pinned to the confluence it gapped into.

NQ led the whole thing again, closing Friday 29650 on a 29660 POC after building value 29501 to 29742. The overnight extended the rip and never gave it back, basing 30204 to 30324 and sitting 30276 in air above everything Friday built. Through 30324 the only real structure left is up at 30536 May’s high and the 30590 last-week POC, the magnet this leg is pointed at. Lose 30204 and the unwind runs 30040 overnight value, 29954 May’s ceiling, then 29760 Friday’s high and the 29660 POC. It sits 30276, holding the top of its overnight base.

CL spent Friday bleeding to an 84.30 close and the weekend finished the job, snapping clean through the whole Friday range and the 82.38 line that was the floor, down to an 80 handle nobody had circled. The overnight built value 79.70 to 81.12 and it sits 80.45, camped on the 80 line with three weeks of higher value stranded overhead. Reclaim 81.12, the top of the overnight, and the first repair is 84.13 Friday’s low, the bottom of the gap. Below 79.70 there is no profile, just air and round numbers, because price hasn’t traded down here in months. It sits 80.45, pinned to 80 with every prior shelf overhead.

GC is the chart that refused to read the room, closing Friday 4232 on a 4218 POC and then ripping the weekend gap straight up through its whole value area to 4359. The overnight based 4321 to 4369 and it sits 4359, clean above Friday’s range with the next real structure up at 4439 the prior-week value base and 4500 its peak-volume line. Above 4369, the overnight peak, 4409 May’s low is the first gate into that prior-week shelf. Lose 4321 the overnight low and 4324 today’s value floor and the gap back to 4257 Friday’s high opens up, then 4239 and the 4218 POC. It sits 4359, holding the top of the overnight.

The Calendar

- 7:30 AM CT, Empire State Manufacturing (June), the first regional read on the month

- 8:15 AM CT, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (May)

- 9:00 AM CT, NAHB Housing Market Index (June)

Light board, all of it second-tier, and none of it moves a tape that just repriced on a weekend headline. The catalyst already happened. Markets are closed Friday for the holiday, so it’s a four-day week and the back half is mostly position management.

The Plan

ES:

ES gapped into the 7525 to 7529 confluence and is holding it, last week’s value floor stacked on May’s ceiling, the same shelf the Friday brief had circled as the line above. Above 7537 the overnight high we target 7611 May’s high, then 7624 last week’s POC where the volume from the prior leg lives, with 7632 last week’s high behind it. Hold 7508 overnight value and dips into the 7518 base are for buying against the gap. Below 7508 fails and the gap fill is on, 7461 Friday’s high first, then 7443 the value ceiling and 7434 the POC, with 7408 Friday’s floor and 7385 May’s value floor the deeper nets.

NQ:

NQ is the cleanest gap on the board, sitting 30276 in air above everything Friday built. Above 30324 the overnight high we target 30536 May’s high, then 30590 last week’s POC and 30751 last week’s value ceiling where the prior leg topped. Hold 30204 the overnight low and the breakout stays intact. Below 30204 fails and 30040 overnight value catches first, then 29954 May’s ceiling, 29760 Friday’s high and the 29660 POC, with 29501 Friday’s floor under it. Thin air built fast unwinds just as fast, so 30204 is the line between a real breakout and a Sunday-night fakeout.

CL:

Crude is in free fall and there’s no profile to argue with, parked 80.45 on the 80 line after the weekend snapped every floor it had. Reclaim 81.12 where the overnight topped and the only repair left is 84.13 Friday’s low, the bottom of the gap, then 84.16 the value base and 84.90 Friday’s POC. Hold under 81 and the path of least resistance stays down, 79.70 the overnight low first, then air, because the chart is blank beneath here until the round numbers catch it. Every prior shelf, 87.38 the week’s value floor, 90.86 last week’s, 92.47 May’s, sits overhead now as resistance, which tells you how far this fell.

GC:

Gold reclaimed a month of damage in one gap, the move carrying it clean over the whole Friday range and back into the prior week’s wreckage at 4359. Above 4369 the overnight high, 4409 May’s low is the first gate, then 4439 last week’s value base and 4500 the prior-week POC, the lines that turn this gap into a real trend change. Hold 4321 the overnight low and the 4324 value base, and the gap stays defended. Below 4324 fails and the fill opens, 4257 Friday’s high first, then 4239 the value ceiling and the 4218 POC, with 4206 Friday’s floor underneath. One gap doesn’t undo a month of selling, so I’d rather buy 4369 breaking than guess at 4321 holding into the cash open.

The White Van Stuff

One headline reset every options book overnight. The index surfaces that were leaning defensive on Friday now sit mostly below price with their caps overhead, crude’s book got run straight through the bottom, and gold blew past its same-day lid into open road.

ES pushed right up to its 7550 cap overnight and is pressing it, with the 7500 to 7525 interest cluster that capped it on the way down now flipped to support underneath. The 7375 magnet and the 7300 put floor are a long way down if this gap ever fails. The book has no real argument above 7550 until the round number.

NQ blew clean through the 30000 lid that was its cap, its same-day cap, and its expected high all stacked on the round number, and it’s now in the open air above. 30000 flips to the pivot, the line that decides whether the breakout holds. The next interest overhead is the 30200 to 30500 ladder, thin enough that the pull higher is real.

CL ran through its entire surface on the way down and is resting under all of it, with the 83 same-day floor and the 85 put floor both flipped overhead into resistance. The only line near price is the 80 interest it’s sitting on, and below that the book runs out. Vol here is the loudest on the board by a mile, so the band is enormous and crude will use all of it.

GC pushed above its same-day lid and is pressing the 4400 cap, with the 4340 to 4350 cluster, the old ceiling, flipped underneath as the first support. There’s open road from here to 4400 and then nothing on the book above it. The 4200 floor is a different planet now.

Taking on a challenge is a lot like riding a horse... If you're comfortable while you're doing it, you're probably doing it wrong. Let’s have some fun Today.

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The Game Plan: Friday, June 12, 2026

Nick — Fri, 12 Jun 2026 12:49:53 GMT

Happy peace talks going well SpaceXaipo day. What a weird time, man. A peace deal with Iran could be signed as soon as Sunday, the planned strikes got called off, and crude erased weeks of supply panic in two sessions while the indexes ripped and gold, the chart nobody had circled for a bounce, printed the V of the year. The biggest IPO in history starts trading today too, because this Friday apparently needed more plot. I highly doubt we get anything close to last Fridays shinanigans but rollover next week, so things might get a little weird.

he Tape

ES finally got its reversal Thursday, opening 7308, flushing to 7263 in the first hour, then trending the rest of the session to close 7394.5 near the highs, a P-shape with the 7298 POC parked at the bottom and value running 7263 to 7366. The overnight gapped it higher and ran 7451.25 before stalling, building value 7391 to 7431 around a 7410 POC. It sits 7431 now, on top of the 7416 week POC and 7420 May POC stack that rejected it twice on the way down, holding above the 7414 overnight VWAP. Through 7451 the path runs 7476 week value ceiling, 7491 the week high, then the 7525 shelf where last week’s floor and May’s ceiling stack. Lose 7410 and the gap opens, 7391 value floor, 7375 the overnight low, then 7366 Thursday’s value ceiling.

NQ ran the reversal with the most violence, holding 28577.5 early and trending the entire session to a 29457.75 close, leaving a hollow P-shape with the 28600 POC stranded at the dead lows. The overnight extended it, dipping once to 29260 and running 29675, with value parked 29460 to 29625 around 29551. It sits 29568, above the week’s 29417 value ceiling and above Thursday’s entire range. Through 29675 there’s 29848 the week high, then the 29950 wall where last week’s value floor and May’s ceiling sit on the same shelf. Lose 29460 and 29417 is the first test, then 29260 and 29184 Thursday’s value ceiling, with nothing thick again until 28974.

CL spent Thursday getting dismantled, tagging 91.49 early then trending down all session to close 86.53, with value 85.85 to 90.05 and the 87.50 POC left overhead. The overnight finished the job, snapping the 86.35 May low and flushing to 83.20, prices last seen in March, before the bounce back to 85. Overnight value built 83.35 to 85.80 around a 83.92 POC and price sits 85.05, pinned to the top of it and dead on the overnight VWAP. Reclaim 85.85 Thursday’s value floor and the repair runs 86.40 the overnight high, then 87.50 and 87.91 the week’s value floor. Fail there and it rotates back to 83.92, then 83.20, and below that the chart is blank.

GC V-bottomed hard Thursday, flushing to 4072.8 in the opening hour then ripping the whole session to close 4229.9 on the highs, the 4172 POC mid-range with value 4096 to 4197. The overnight held every bit of it, basing 4191.1 to 4249.6 with value 4195.5 to 4238 around a 4199 POC. It sits 4226, above Thursday’s whole value area with three days of wreckage still stacked far overhead. Through 4249.6 the recovery runs 4297 the week’s value ceiling, then 4338 last week’s low and 4409 the May low, the lines that actually un-break this chart. Lose 4191 and the gate is 4172 where Thursday’s POC and the week’s POC share a price, then 4096 and the 4073 low underneath.

The Calendar

- 9:00 AM CT, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary (June), with the inflation expectations reads

- 12:00 PM CT, Baker Hughes rig count

- SpaceX begins trading today, the largest IPO ever priced

The Plan

ES:

ES gapped above Thursday’s close and is sitting 7431 on the 7416 week POC and 7420 May POC stack, the same shelf that turned it away twice on the way down. Above 7451 the overnight high, the targets are 7476 week VAH, 7491 the week high, then the 7525 to 7529 shelf where last week’s floor meets May’s ceiling, with 7624 last week’s POC the far line. If 7416 holds, dips into 7410 overnight POC and 7391 value floor are for buying against the gap. Lose 7391 and the gap fill is on, 7375 the overnight low, then 7366 Thursday’s value ceiling, with 7338 May’s floor, 7321 week VAL, and the 7298 POC underneath.

NQ:

NQ is the leader and it’s not close, holding 29568, above the week’s 29417 value ceiling, after the overnight extended Thursday’s rip to 29675. Above 29675 the path is 29848, the week high, then the only line that matters up here, the 29950 wall where last week’s floor sits on May’s ceiling, and acceptance through it opens the air toward 30590 last week’s POC. Hold 29460 overnight value and dips stay for buying. Lose it and 29417 is the first test, then 29260 the overnight low and 29184 from Thursday, with nothing but thin bars below that until 28974 and the 28600 POC at the bottom.

CL:

Crude is broken and bouncing, parked 85.05 on the top of overnight value after snapping the May low. First test overhead is 85.85, Thursday’s value floor sitting right on the overnight value ceiling, and reclaiming it puts 86.40 the overnight high in play as the gate. Through that, the repair runs 87.50 Thursday’s POC, 87.91 week VAL, then 90.05 with the 90.86 to 91.30 zone far above. Fail at 85.85 and the bounce is a rental, 83.92 catches first, then 83.20, and below that there’s no profile until prices nobody has on their charts anymore. A signature this weekend kills what’s left of the supply premium, no signature reverses this whole flush on a headline, so size like the gap risk is real.

GC:

Gold’s V is real until 4191 says otherwise. Holding above the 4199 overnight POC keeps the bounce in control, and through 4249.6 the recovery targets 4297 week VAH, then 4338 last week’s low, with the 4409 May low the line that turns a bounce into a trend change. Lose 4191 and the gate is 4172, Thursday’s POC sitting on the week’s POC. Below that the V unwinds fast, 4096 Thursday’s value floor, then the 4073 low with nothing under it. Thursday proved a real buyer showed up at the lows, but one session doesn’t repair a month of damage, so I’d rather buy 4250 breaking than guess at 4191 holding.

The White Van Stuff

One headline repriced all four books overnight. The index surfaces now sit mostly below price with their caps far overhead, crude’s book got run through top to bottom and price is camped on its last floor, and gold blew through every same-day line it had, leaving nothing overhead until the mid 4300s. When positioning moves this fast in one direction, the levels that flipped are more honest than the ones that held.

ES got its overnight top called to the tick, price stalled at 7451.25 against the 7450 same-day cap. Most of the same-day surface sits under price now, with the 7390 magnet and 7380 pivot the zone any dip gets judged at. The 7481 expected high is the only line between here and the 7500s.

NQ‘s book is a 30000 story, the cap, the same-day cap, and the expected high all parked on or just past the round number. Under price, the 29200 same-day pivot and the 28900 magnet mark where the breakout read dies. Between here and the lid it’s just the 29600 to 29850 interest ladder, thin enough that the pull toward the number is real.

CL broke through its entire same-day surface on the way down and is resting on the 85 put floor, the last line the book has drawn. The 86 same-day floor flipped overhead into first resistance, with the 87.75 pivot and the 89 same-day cap behind it. Below 85 there’s the 84.58 expected low and then the book runs out at 82.

GC‘s surface never caught up to the V, the entire same-day book sits below price. The 4180 expected high, the 4125 same-day cap, even the 4100 same-day floor, all of it is support now if anything tests down there. The first real lid is the 4345 magnet, then the 4400 cap, which is a lot of open road overhead.

Take the clean trade, get flat, and let the Sunday gap be somebody else’s problem. The screen will be there Monday. I plan to keep it light and tight and go outside.

I wonder if this will be the perfect meme for the average retail investor YOLOing their 401k into SpaceX. Time will tell.

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The Game Plan: Thursday, June 11, 2026

Nick — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:03:28 GMT

Another morning, another hot inflation number that we will likely shake off. PPI just printed ugly on the headline with energy doing the damage again, the same split as yesterday’s CPI, and the overnight bounce in the indexes got slapped back down within minutes of the release. With US strikes on Iran in their second day, crude is flip-flopping both ways. CL might be the only chart on my screen that looks like it knows what it’s doing. Seems like we are just going to be widely rangebound this week. I’m all for it, fun week to trade.

The Tape

ES spent Wednesday unloading, opening 7355, tagging 7404.75 early, and selling the rest of the session into a 7276 close on the dead lows. The overnight bounced it to 7338.75, right into the week’s 7332 value floor from below, and the hot number this morning knocked it straight back down. It sits 7300, pressing the 7294.75 overnight low with Wednesday’s 7280.5 value floor right underneath.

NQ ran the same play, a 28853 open, a 29250 morning pop, and a bleed into a 28525.75 close near the low. The overnight clawed back to 28936 and got rejected one point under last week’s 28974 low, then the number sent it back down. It’s sitting 28721 on a double floor where Wednesday’s 28699.75 value base and the 28685.5 overnight low stack.

CL was Wednesday’s strong chart, running 91.83 and settling 90.42 above its 90.00 POC. The overnight drained it all the way to 88.63, then the hot print lit it right back up to 91.48, because energy is the part of these inflation numbers doing the damage. It sits 90.78, back above Wednesday’s POC and pressing the 90.86 prior-week floor.

GC is on day three of the bleed. Wednesday bounced to 4209.7 and sold to a 4106 close, then the overnight snapped the 4105 floor the week had been standing on and the print drove it to 4078.2. It sits 4079 with the 4096 overnight value floor overhead and nothing left on the chart below it.

The Calendar

- 7:30 AM CT, PPI (May) and weekly jobless claims, already printed: headline hot on energy again, core soft, claims a touch higher

- 9:30 AM CT, EIA natural gas storage

- 12:00 PM CT, 30-Year Bond Auction

The Plan

ES:

ES comes out of the number at 7300, under the 7320 Wednesday POC and pressing the 7294.75 overnight low. Reclaim 7320 and the repair runs the 7333 zone where the overnight POC and the week’s value floor sit together, then 7338 where May’s base meets the overnight high, with 7360 Wednesday’s value ceiling and 7379 last week’s low behind it before 7416 week POC and 7420 May POC. Lose 7294.75 and floor at 7280.5 and the 7275 low are the first nets, then 7247 the week low is the last shelf before air down to May’s 7199 base. Two hot prints in two days mean the bounce crowd is on its third strike, so let 7320 prove itself before believing any green.

NQ:

NQ is parked 28721 on the double floor, Wednesday’s 28699.75 value base and the 28685.5 overnight low, after the 28936 bounce got rejected one point under last week’s 28974 low. Hold it and reclaim 28769 overnight value, and the test runs 28823 week value floor, then 28920 where the overnight built its volume and the 28936 high into that 28974 line. Through 28974 the repair gets real, 29110 Wednesday’s POC, 29240 the May POC, then 29450 week POC. Lose 28685.5 and 28493 Wednesday’s low is the gate, then 28337 from May and the 28227 week low are all that’s left underneath. The 28974 fight is the only trade that matters up top.

CL:

Crude is the one with the bid, sitting 90.78 after the round trip from 91.10 down to 88.63 and back. Through 91.48 the overnight high it gets 91.83, Wednesday’s high, then 92.05 and 92.39 the week’s ceiling, with May’s 92.47 shelf and 93.00 last week’s POC the bigger lids. Hold 90.00 Wednesday’s POC and the snapback keeps its base, with 89.60 the value floor under it. Lose 89.60 and 89.43 last week’s low cracks first, then the 88.90 gate where the overnight POC and Wednesday’s low stack, with the week’s 88.14 base and its 85.94 low underneath. Headline tape both directions on this one, so size for the gaps.

GC:

Gold has one job, win back 4096 overnight value, and until it does there’s nothing to argue about. Above it 4105 is the broken floor, Wednesday’s low and the week low together, then 4116 the overnight POC, 4127 Wednesday’s value floor, and the 4133.6 high before the 4156 line where Wednesday’s POC and the week POC sit stacked. The repair lines above that are far, 4209 Wednesday’s high, 4338 last week’s low, 4409 the May low. Below, 4078.2 is the only number left, and under it the chart is blank. Three days of this and every bounce has been a sale, so I’m not interested in being early.

The White Van Stuff

Both index books lean defensive again and their same-day surfaces sit almost entirely overhead after the print, ES’s so twisted its same-day put floor is parked above its same-day cap. Crude carries the only call-side lean on the board, with a heavy lid starting at 94.

ES at 7300 has nothing same-day underneath except stacked interest every 25 handles down to the 7200 put floor. The 7375 cap and magnet, the 7380 flipped floor, and the 7400 pivot are all glued together overhead, one zone that decides any bounce. A book this inverted means the strikes haven’t caught up to the selling yet.

NQ has the loudest level on the board, the 28975 cap and magnet sitting one point above last week’s 28974 low, and the overnight rejected it exactly. The 27930 expected low is the deep line if the 28686 floor goes. Until 28975 clears, the book says sell the bounce.

CL is the only book leaning up, but the lid is real, the 94 cap and magnet stacked with heavy interest at 94.50 and 95. The 93.29 expected high is the stretch past the overnight’s 91.48. Vol here is still the loudest of the four, so the band runs 86.77 to 93.29 and crude’s been using all of it.

GC broke below its book again, the 4125 same-day put floor flipped overhead with the 4174 cap and magnet the far lid. Under price there’s the 4075 shelf, the 4043 expected low, then the book just ends. A lean this one-sided sells bounces until it stops working, and it hasn’t stopped yet.

Two mornings, two hot numbers, same lesson. The levels don’t care whether you believe. Does the market even care about inflation anymore?

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The Game Plan: Wednesday, June 10, 2026

Nick — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 13:10:43 GMT

GM frens. How about yesterday? That was a fun one. Perfect day for me to trade. Right in my wheelhouse and thats probably why I won the NinjaTrader Arena Cup on-air competition.

The hottest annual inflation number in three years printed this morning, and the market bounced on it. Sellers leaned on the tape all night into the print, the core read came in soft, and the shorts got their floor pulled. Energy did the damage in that number, which makes crude the actual inflation chart now. Gold got marched behind the woodshed overnight and is trading at December prices. Both index books are still priced for wide swings, so the first move after the open doesn’t have to be the real one. I’m pretty sure Daddy Powell told me inflation was “defeated” in November 2023 and yet here we are hearing talking heads speaking again about hikes.

The Tape

ES unloaded Tuesday from a 7458 open down to 7247 and then bought the entire flush back to close 7391, right under its 7393 POC. The overnight sold it again, bleeding from 7394 to 7306 into the print before the soft core read snapped it back to 7358. That leaves a dense stack at 7392 to 7394 overhead, Tuesday’s POC, Tuesday’s close, and the overnight high all parked together, with overnight value 7334 to 7392 holding the bounce. The session pivot is 7353.

NQ had the wildest Tuesday on the board, flushing from 29737 to 28227 and recovering to close 29116, a round trip that left its 29723 POC stranded up top. The overnight rejected 29169 and sold to 28610 into the number, then bounced to 28917. Tuesday’s value floor at 28786 and the overnight’s at 28783 sit stacked right under price, a double shelf, and last week’s low at 28974 hangs directly overhead. It’s trading below the entire prior week with the first lid at 28974.

CL is the strong one. Tuesday it flushed to 85.94, undercut the May base at 86.35, got bought immediately, and closed 88.30 back above its 88.16 POC. The overnight ran to 90.42 before settling to 89.22, holding above all of Tuesday’s value. Inventories hit at 9:30 and crude comes into them sitting on the 89 line where the overnight built its volume.

GC never got the memo about the bounce. Tuesday it bled from 4367 to close 4282, the overnight sold it from exactly that close down to 4152, and the weak bounce to 4183 is where it sits. That’s December prices, below every value area on the chart, with overnight value 4178 to 4232 the only structure it has left. The line it has to win back is 4192.

The Calendar

- 7:30 AM CT, CPI (May), already printed: headline hot on the year, core soft on the month

- 9:30 AM CT, EIA crude inventories

- 12:00 PM CT, 10-Year Note Auction

The Plan

ES:

ES comes out of the print at 7358, between the 7334 overnight value floor and the 7392 to 7394 stack where Tuesday’s POC, Tuesday’s close, and the overnight high are parked. Reclaim the stack and the repair runs 7404 Tuesday’s value ceiling, then 7416 week POC and 7420 May POC glued together, with 7524 the prior-week shelf the bigger prize. Hold 7334 and the morning bounce keeps its base, with 7338 the May floor reinforcing it from below. Lose 7334 and 7306 the overnight low is the gate, then 7276 Tuesday’s floor and 7247 the flush low are the last shelves before May’s base at 7199.

NQ:

NQ sits 28917 under last week’s entire range, with the 28974 prior-week low directly overhead and a double floor underneath where Tuesday’s 28786 and the overnight’s 28783 stack. Reclaim 28974 and the test moves to overnight value at 29146 and the 29169 high, then 29240 the May POC and 29450 week POC, with 29948 last week’s floor the line that actually repairs the damage. Hold the 28783 shelf and the post-print bounce stays intact. Lose it and 28610 goes back on the table as the gate, with 28337 May’s floor and 28227 the flush low the last structure underneath.

CL:

Crude is the only one trading above yesterday’s value, sitting 89.22 after the overnight run to 90.42 stalled. Through 90.42 it gets 90.86 last week’s floor, then 91.30 week POC, with 92.47 May’s value shelf the bigger reclaim above. Hold 88.50 overnight value and the strength story survives into the 9:30 inventories. Lose it and 88.16 Tuesday’s POC then 87.40, where Tuesday’s value base and the overnight low sit together, are the supports, with 86.35 the May low and 85.94 Tuesday’s flush underneath.

GC:

Gold has nothing under it. The overnight took it to 4152, prices last seen in December, and the bounce to 4183 hasn’t even reclaimed 4192 yet. Win that back and the repair road is long, 4232 overnight value ceiling, 4260 Tuesday’s value base, the 4281 overnight high sitting right on Tuesday’s close, then 4304 week value shelf, with 4409 the May low and 4439 last week’s floor the lines that would say the bleed is over. Fail at 4192 and 4178 is the only shelf before 4152 goes, and below 4152 the chart is blank.

The White Van Stuff

Both index books are still priced for wide swings and both lean defensive, with put floors price has been living underneath. Crude’s surface is the tightest on the board, a clear floor under the May base and a heavy lid starting just overhead. Gold’s book is the ugly one, put-heavy by multiples, and price spent the overnight below lines the book said should hold.

ES broke its 7400 put floor overnight and that line is now the first overhead test, with the 7430 same-day pivot and 7450 same-day cap stacked behind it. The drop ran through the 7309 expected low by a hair and bounced.

NQ has its 28975 magnet and 29000 cap sitting right on top of last week’s low, a triple-loaded zone directly overhead. Above it the 29600 same-day pivot and the 29655 expected high are the stretch, below it the 28579 expected low nearly got tagged overnight at 28610. The book leans short into tonight’s earnings, so a held reclaim of 29000 would be the first tell the lean is wrong.

CL has the cleanest book on the board, an 86 same-day put floor sitting under the May base and a lid that starts at the 89.50 same-day cap and runs through 90, 91, and the 91.75 magnet. The 91.24 expected high got within reach overnight and faded.

GC broke its 4174 put floor overnight, tagged 4152, and crawled back above the line, so 4174 is all that stands between price and a book that’s empty below 4164. Everything else on its surface is overhead now, the 4198 expected low included, with the 4224 floor from today’s book and the 4313 pivot flipped to resistance.

Be smart. Be Patient. Have fun. Do your job.

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The Game Plan: Tuesday, June 9, 2026

Nick — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:43:07 GMT

Funny how fast the end of the world gets bought back. Two days ago the chip tape torched everything, now it's quietly walked most of it back, crude's coughed up the war premium, and gold is the only one still laying on the canvas. Nobody commits ahead of tomorrow's inflation print, so this is coil-and-wait. Forcing trades on a slow is something I don’t love to do. I will be trading in the arena cup final Today. I’m a big 6E guy, so look out. As for the bears? This morning it looks as if they are dead.

The Tape

ES repaired most of Friday’s flush Monday, closing 7416 on the POC after defending the 7404 value floor all day. The overnight ground higher to 7456 and parked value just under the 7448 shelf where the overnight POC and Monday’s VAH stack. It sits 7443 now, coiled under that lid with the 7416 POC and the 7420 May POC the shelf right beneath it. Hold 7404 and a push through 7456 opens 7476 Monday’s high, then 7524 last week’s floor. Lose 7404 and 7390 the overnight low cracks with air underneath.

NQ was the snapback leader Monday, closing 29452 back on its POC after Friday gutted the whole week. The overnight kept grinding to 29727 and built value 29305 to 29642, the strongest tape on the board again. It sits 29668 pressing the 29743 Monday high with all of last week’s value still hanging above. Hold 29386 Monday’s value floor and the grind extends to 29743, then 29948 last week’s value floor. Lose 29305 and 29240 the May POC is the shelf, under it the air opens toward 28800.

CL held a 91 close Monday inside its range while the headline bid still had a pulse. The overnight bled the whole thing out, sliding to 88.70 as the supply scare drained, and it sits 89.49 well under Monday’s value and the 90 line. It’s right back where it started before the spike, heavy and pointed one way. Reclaim 90.86 last week’s floor and 91.30 Monday’s POC comes back, lose 88.70 and it’s air toward 86 where crude based before the run.

GC closed 4350 Monday, still the one nobody wants, just basing in a tight range after Friday liquidated it. The overnight chopped 4336 to 4376 and parked value 4348 to 4364 around the 4360 POC. It sits 4366 pinned on that line with last week’s value stacked way overhead and Friday’s wreckage still below. Hold 4339 Monday’s low and it can press 4375 then 4424. Lose 4336 and 4302 is the gate with nothing but air beneath it.

The Calendar

- 5:00 AM CT, NFIB Small Business Optimism (May), already printed

- 7:30 AM CT, Trade Balance (April)

- 9:00 AM CT, Wholesale Inventories (April) and Existing Home Sales (May)

- 12:00 PM CT, 3-Year Note Auction

- 3:30 PM CT, weekly oil inventories, after the close

The Plan

ES:

ES is coiled 7443 under the 7448 shelf where the overnight POC and Monday’s VAH sit on top of each other, with the 7416 POC and 7420 May POC stacked right under as the floor. Above 7456 the overnight high gives way and the push runs 7476 Monday’s high, then 7524 the prior-week shelf, with 7624 last week’s POC the far line where the whole thing broke down. Hold 7404 Monday’s value floor and the coil stays bid. Lose 7404 and 7390 the overnight low cracks, and under that there’s air back toward the Friday lows.

NQ:

NQ is the leader, sitting 29668 and pressing the 29743 Monday high after grinding up all night, the only one that fully clawed its damage back. Above 29743 the next legs are 29948 last week’s floor, then 30590 last week’s POC the line that flips it all the way back. Hold 29386 Monday’s value floor and the grind has room. Lose 29305 the overnight floor and 29240 the May POC is the shelf, then air opens toward 28800. It took the worst of Friday and bounced the hardest, so let it prove 29386 holds before chasing it higher.

CL:

Crude gave back the whole headline spike overnight and sits 89.49, under Monday’s value and the 90 line it lived above yesterday. Above 90.86 last week’s value floor it gets a second look at 91.30 Monday’s POC, then 91.66 Monday’s value high, with 93 last week’s POC the bigger lid and 98 May POC the far one. Lose 88.70 the overnight low and it’s air down to 86 where last month and the prior week both based before the run.

GC:

Gold is sitting on its hands at 4366, chopping a tight overnight range while it tries to build a base after Friday wrecked it. Above 4375 it can test 4424, then 4439 the prior-week shelf, with 4500 last week’s POC and 4532 the May POC the heavy lids stacked overhead. Hold 4339 Monday’s low and the base holds. Lose 4336 the overnight low and 4302 is the gate, and under that there’s no profile left, just air.

The White Van Stuff

Yields backed off and the dollar softened as the war bid drained overnight, and the books repriced with it. The index surfaces flipped friendlier, especially on the strong one, where price has already run above the line that used to cap it. Crude’s vol is still screaming with its band blown wide, while gold’s whole surface sits overhead and leans heavy to the downside.

ES finally pushed up to its same-day magnet at 7450 instead of getting pinned under it, with the 7485 same-day cap the next lid and the 7491 expected high right behind it. The put floor sits 7400, the line the whole bounce is built on.

NQ ran clean through the 29140 line that had capped it and turned it into a floor, the tell that the snapback is real. The same-day pivot sits 29125 under price now, with the 29916 expected high the lid up top. As long as it holds above that flipped 29140 line, the books lean up.

CL band is still wide at 88 to 94 and price is whipping the bottom of it after the spike drained. The 90 same-day put floor flipped overhead and is the line it has to win back, with the 91.75 magnet above that. The 88.23 expected low is the shelf under price before the deeper drop.

GC book leans heavy to the downside and every bounce keeps getting sold into it. The 4375 same-day put floor sits just overhead as resistance now, with the 4480 magnet way up the chart. The 4302 expected low and 4300 floor are the last lines before the air opens.

Two sessions of buying it back don’t make Friday’s hole disappear. Sit on your hands until a level breaks.

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The Game Plan: Monday, June 8, 2026

Nick — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 12:35:06 GMT

Friday was the worst day of the year. The chip names cratered the indices and a hot 172k jobs print spiked yields into rate-hike talk, so everything got sold at once, stocks, bonds, gold, crude. The only thing that caught a bid overnight was crude, ripping back through 95 as Iran and Israel traded missiles again and the Strait of Hormuz supply scare came back, though even that already fizzled. Nice gap down and rip in the indicies. Equities are trying to claw their way back into value above 29420 guy. Be careful out there Today. I’m not rushing into this week, but I have a feeling the bulls aren’t full “schools out for summer” yet. Still a day like Friday is fun to watch. Since 23k I’ve been waiting for a meanful pullback.

The Tape

ES got taken apart Friday, opening 7547 and selling straight to a 7400 close on the lows, giving back the whole prior week’s value as yields jumped and the chip tape bled into everything. The overnight probed lower to 7355 then clawed back, reclaiming the 7422 value floor and the May POC sitting right under it, now pressing the 7454 high. It’s back inside the lower third of Friday’s range with the 7465 POC the next line to win. Hold above 7422 and the repair runs 7465 then the 7524 prior week floor. Lose 7395 and the 7379 Friday and week low is where it breaks, and under it 7355 reopens the air toward 7338 May value.

NQ took the worst of it Friday, the semis cratering it from 30035 down to a 29016 close and gutting the entire week’s value in one session. The overnight undercut even that, flushing to 28822 before a hard bounce back to 29398 that reclaimed the 29240 May POC and the overnight value with it. It’s the weak one that snapped back hardest, now pressing the 29408 high with all of last week’s value still hanging in the air above. Hold the 29240 shelf and the snapback can stretch to 29784 the Friday value high then 29948 last week’s floor. Lose 28975 the Friday low and 28822 comes back, and under that it’s air to 28337 May value.

CL got dumped with everything else Friday into a 90 close, then ripped back hard overnight on the headline tape, running 95.47 before the move fizzled and handed most of it back to 92.26. It’s two-sided and unstable, back under the 93 prior week POC and the 92.47 May value floor after failing to hold the spike. The whole thing reeks of a knee-jerk that’s already cooling. Reclaim 92.47 and the move gets a second life toward 93.44 then 94.50 overnight value. Lose 91.92 the overnight low and Friday’s 90 value comes right back into play.

GC got liquidated Friday, dropping from 4499 to a 4343 close as the rate-hike scare hit the one trade nobody wanted, slicing clean through its whole May range. The overnight kept it heavy, probing 4293 before a bounce back to 4350 that just barely reclaimed the 4338 Friday low. It’s still the orphan, the only asset that didn’t get the bid, sitting below every prior week and month line stacked overhead. Hold above 4338 and it can press 4377 then the 4409 May low that’s now resistance. Lose 4314 and 4293 is the gate, and beneath it there’s nothing but air.

The Calendar

- 10:00 AM CT, NY Fed Survey of Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)

- 10:30 AM CT, 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auctions

The Plan

ES:

ES clawed back the 7422 Friday value floor and the 7420 May POC under it overnight, coiling 7451 right beneath the 7454 high. Above 7454 the repair runs 7465 Friday POC, then 7500 and 7524 the prior week floor, with 7624 prior week POC the far line where last week broke. Hold 7422 and the repair has legs, lose 7416 today POC and 7395 the overnight floor and 7379 the Friday and week low gives way. Below 7379 the 7355 overnight low reopens air down to 7338 May value where the real volume sits. Light data today, so the open is a pure read on whether Friday’s flush found buyers or just paused.

NQ:

NQ snapped back to 29398 out of the overnight flush, reclaiming the 29240 May POC and the overnight value with it, pressing the 29408 high. Above 29408 the move extends to 29784 the Friday value high, then 29948 last week’s floor and 30590 last week’s POC far overhead where the air sits. Hold 29240 and the recovery has room, lose 29060 the overnight base and 28975 the Friday low gives way, then 28822 the overnight low. Below 28822 it’s air to 28337 May value, the deeper shelf. It took the most damage and bounced the hardest, so let it prove 29240 holds before chasing the snapback.

CL:

Crude ran 95.47 overnight on the headline bid then fizzled back to 92.26, sitting under the 92.47 May value floor and the 93 prior week POC it failed to hold. Above 92.47 the second-chance bounce runs 93 then 93.44 the overnight floor and 94.50 the overnight POC, with 96.58 last week’s high and 98 May POC stacked above. Lose 91.92 the overnight low and 91.29 Friday’s value high cracks, then 90.86 last week’s floor and it’s air back to the 90 Friday value the rip came out of. This is a two-sided headline market, so the level it closes the morning on beats the spike. The geopolitical tape can gap it either way, so size for the noise.

GC:

Gold reclaimed the 4338 Friday low off the overnight bounce and sits 4350, the first sign of life after getting dumped through its entire range Friday. Above 4338 it can press 4351 overnight value then 4377 the high, and the real overhead test is 4409 the May low that flipped to resistance, then 4439 last week’s floor and 4500 last week’s POC. Hold 4338 and the recovery builds, lose 4314 the overnight base and 4334 POC and 4293 the overnight low is the gate. Under 4293 there’s no profile left beneath it, just air, because it’s already below everything the last month built. Let it earn back 4409 before anyone calls the bottom in.

The White Van Stuff

Friday’s hot number jammed yields higher and flipped the equity books bearish, so both index surfaces are stacked overhead now with price pinned under the pivots and the put floors knocked above the tape. Crude is the loud one, vol screaming into the mid-50s with the band blown wide as the headline bid spiked and faded. Gold’s whole surface sits overhead and lopsidedly put-heavy, price clawing at the bottom of it with thin air underneath.

ES sits under the 7478 expected high with the 7480 put floor flipped right above it, the first real shelf the bounce has to clear. The 7545 magnet and 7555 pivot are the bigger lid into the 7600 cap that held all last week. Balanced and heavy, the surface wants proof before it lets price back up.

NQ is the heavy one, its surface stacked overhead from the 29400 put floor it’s testing up into the 29700 cap, with vol still screaming after Friday. It clawed back to the line it fell through, so reclaiming 29400 and holding is the tell the snapback is real. Below, the 28700 put floor is the deep line if the bounce fails.

CL vol is the loudest on the board, the expected band alone runs 87 to 94 and price is whipping the middle after the spike and fade. The 93 put floor and 94 pivot are the lid the bounce stalled under, with the 95 cap and the 105 cap a long way up. The 87 expected low is the deep line if the knee-jerk fully unwinds.

GC flushed through its whole same-day surface Friday and is clawing at the bottom of it, the 4350 put floor right at price with the 4424 expected high and 4505 magnet stacked well overhead. The book leans heavily to the put side, which is exactly why every bounce keeps getting sold. The 4305 expected low and 4300 floor are the last lines before the air opens up.

Let the level come to you. No ragerts.

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The Game Plan: Friday, June 5, 2026

Nick — Fri, 05 Jun 2026 13:28:23 GMT

Payrolls came in hot, 172k against an 80k estimate with unemployment holding 4.3%, and the reaction told the story. The indices rolled over at the close yesterday and continued into the overnight. ES still coiled under the week’s value and NQ still the weak one pinned near its lows, while gold took the hit and got dumped from 4496 back to the 4454 floor. This could be a fun and interesting session. Until I see NQ accepting under 30k plan remains to look for longs for a rotation higher. I went into this week with the bearish tingle, so it time for sellers to nut up and show me some heart.

The Tape

ES repaired most of the chip damage Thursday, closing 7599 on the POC, then the overnight gave it back to 7558 and parked value 7554 to 7569 under the 7561 POC. It barely moved on the print, still below Thursday’s 7566 VAL and the whole week’s value. Reclaim 7566 and the upside opens, lose 7554 and 7545 and the 7541 week low is in play.

NQ recovered to 30485 Thursday, then the overnight bounce rolled over and slid to 30107, slipping under the 30114 overnight value floor. Still the weak one, pinned near the lows under the entire week’s value with the hot print no help. Reclaim 30114 and 30200 to repair, lose the 30042 low and it’s air to 30000.

CL recovered to close 93.17 Thursday, then the overnight whipped, running 93.64 before getting sold to 91.49, now 92.59 under the 93 week POC. It’s rotating the lower half of overnight value, mid-range for the week. Reclaim 93 and it firms toward 93.90, lose 92.38 and 91.49 comes back.

GC put in its first real up day Thursday closing 4508, then the overnight bid to 4496 and got dumped to 4458 when the number hit, failing 4500 again and back on the 4454 floor. The safety bid keeps showing up and getting sold. Hold 4454 and it can base, lose it and there’s air to 4409.

The Calendar

- 7:30 AM CT, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings (May)

- 12:00 PM CT, Baker Hughes Rig Count

- 2:00 PM CT, Consumer Credit (April)

The Plan

ES:

ES is coiling 7558 right under the 7561 overnight POC and 7563 VWAP, back below the entire week’s value and barely moved on the print. Above 7561 the reclaim runs 7566 yest VAL, 7570 overnight VAH, then 7583 week VAL and 7591 overnight high into 7595 prev week POC, with 7600 yest POC and 7611 yest high the cap before the 7632 week high. Hold 7554 overnight VAL to keep the coil two-sided, lose 7545 overnight low into 7541 week low and the next leg runs 7536 prev week VAL. Below there air opens to 7515 prev week low then 7420 May POC. The number ran hot, the 8:30 open is the next test.

NQ:

NQ rolled the overnight bounce back over and sits 30107, slipping under the 30114 overnight value floor and back toward the 30042 low, still the weak one. Above 30114 the repair runs 30166 yest VAL, then 30200 overnight POC and 30228 overnight VAH into 30320 yest POC, with 30466 week VAL and 30590 week POC the lines that flip it back bullish. Lose the 30042 overnight low and it’s air with nothing structural until 30000 prev week POC. Past that the slide runs 29954 May VAH then 29828 prev week VAL where the deeper shelf sits. No reason to step in front until it reclaims 30200 and proves the bounce is real.

CL:

Crude ran the overnight to 93.64 then got sold all the way to 91.49, a two-sided whip that left it 92.59 under the 92.95 overnight POC and the 93 week POC. Above 92.95 the reclaim runs the 93 week POC and 93.17 overnight VAH, then 93.24 yest VAH and 93.90 prev week POC into 94.23 week VAH. Hold 92.38 overnight VAL and the chop stays two-sided, lose it and 91.93 yest low and 91.49 overnight low go, then 91.48 week VAL cracks and it’s air to 88.68 prev week VAL. Below there 86.35 the prev week and May low stacked is where crude based before the run. Baker Hughes at noon is a side note, the open is the swing.

GC:

Gold bid to 4496 overnight then got dumped right back to 4458 on the number, failing the 4500 reclaim again and falling onto the 4454 floor where the week and overnight lows stack. Hold 4454 and a bounce can rebuild toward 4472 overnight VAL, 4488 yest VAL and the 4490 overnight POC, then 4500 week POC and 4521 week VAH into the 4532 shelf it keeps failing. Lose 4454 and there’s nothing under it but air down to 4409 prev week and May low where the deeper volume parked. The safety bid has shown up twice now and gotten sold both times.

The White Van Stuff

The number’s out and it ran hot, so the rate-cut hope that had been propping the metals died and the equity books barely repriced. ES and NQ sit pinned with caps stacked overhead, the expected ranges narrow and the surfaces still leaning slightly positive. Gold flushed back through its whole same-day surface to the floor while crude stayed wide and two-sided.

ES sits under the 7585 magnet with the book stacked into the 7650 cap overhead, the same lid all week. The 7546 expected low held the overnight fade and the number, with the 7575 same-day put floor just above price.

NQ is the heavy one, the whole surface stacked overhead from the 30340 magnet into the 30700 cap. It sits under the 30121 expected low, the line every overnight dip has tested, with the round number just below.

CL band is still wide at 89.65 to 96.43 and price is back near the 92.25 pivot after the two-sided whip. The 93.50 same-day cap is the lid that capped the bounce with the 95 interest and 105 cap a long way up. Jumpy both ways, the way crude’s traded all week.

GC failed the reclaim and flushed back under its same-day surface on the number, the 4471 pivot and 4496 cap now the lid overhead again. The 4419 expected low is the real shelf under price with the 4421 put floor right at it. The book leaned up twice this week and got sold both times.

Trade the reaction at the open, not your bias. Bears…its’s time to show me something.

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