The Tape

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The Tape

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The Tape

ES is 7841.75, inside the value the night built from 7836.75 to 7851 and a few points under the 7847.25 print, so the whole overnight auction happened above everything Thursday called value. The night ran Thursday’s 7850 high and couldn’t keep it, which leaves September’s high, Thursday’s high and the night’s top all piled into one five-point lid. Value moving up a full shelf is the buyers’ argument, a rejected high sitting right on top of it is the sellers’, and nobody has settled that yet. Hold 7836.75 and the 7847.25 print opens the lid, with 7879, October’s ceiling, the next real volume through it. Lose 7836.75 and 7827.25, Thursday’s open on Thursday’s ceiling, catches, with 7824, where this week and the month both did their volume, right under it.

NQ is 31190, sitting on the night’s 31193 print after buying back most of Thursday’s slide to 30792. Thursday did its business at 31235 before the sellers took it apart, and that print sits on the 31234.25 open with 31250, the week and October POC, right over it. Until NQ trades through that shelf the overnight rally is a rebound inside Thursday’s damage, and I’d want to see it hold up there before I believe it. Take 31250 and the night’s 31266.50 high comes next, with 31369.75, Thursday’s top, the only thing over it that matters. Lose 31073, the floor of the night’s value with September’s high a few ticks under it, and the next shelf is the night’s low on Thursday’s value floor at 30953 to 30949.25.

CL is 91.24, over the overnight value from 90.34 to 91.01 and a hair under last week’s 91.44 print. The night ran Thursday’s 90.25 low out to 90.01, found nobody home, and bought every bit of it back, which is a failed breakdown until somebody proves otherwise. Thursday sold from the open all day, and every price it sold from is still overhead, so this bounce has a lot of tired sellers to walk through. Hold 91.01 and clear 91.44, and 92.04, October’s ceiling with September’s print on it, is the next stop. Lose 91.01 and Thursday’s 90.92 POC catches first, then the low the night already bought back at 90.01.

GC is 4206, in the bottom half of the overnight’s value, 4195.80 to 4223.70, every tick of it above Thursday’s 4170.70 high. That is a full migration, Thursday’s entire session left behind in the dark, with 4218.80 the price the night agreed on sitting over the market. The one thing it has not done is hold the top, it tagged 4233.70 and has been leaking back toward the floor of its own value ever since. Hold 4195.80 and 4218.80 comes back first, then 4259, last week’s high and the month’s, is the ceiling. Lose the shelf where last week’s 4190 print meets the night’s floor and it is thin down to 4170.70, where Thursday topped out.

The Calendar

Friday, October 9 (all times CT):

- 9:00 Michigan Consumer Expectations - Prelim (Oct)

- 9:00 Michigan Current Conditions - Prelim (Oct)

- 9:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim (Oct)

- 9:00 Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations - Prelim (Oct)

- 9:00 Michigan Inflation Expectations - Prelim (Oct)

- 12:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count

- 2:30 CFTC Crude Oil Speculative Net Positions

- 2:30 CFTC Nasdaq 100 Speculative Net Positions

The Plan

ES:

The whole read is 7836.75, the floor of the overnight’s value, all of it over Thursday’s. Hold it and the 7847.25 print is the first work, then the lid where September’s high, Thursday’s and the night’s top all live, and it takes acceptance through 7853.75 to get anything done up there. That opens 7879, October’s ceiling, and 7897.50, the month’s high. Lose 7836.75 and ES is back inside Thursday’s day, with 7827.25 to 7824 the first shelf, Thursday’s open and ceiling on the month’s print. Under that, 7808 is the one that matters, Thursday’s POC on September’s ceiling, and the last stop is 7783.50, Thursday’s value floor with last week’s 7782 ceiling under it.

NQ:

NQ is sitting on the night’s 31193 print with the shelf Thursday’s sellers built right over its head. 31234.25 to 31250 is Thursday’s open and POC with the month’s print stacked on them, and NQ needs acceptance over 31250 before a long has anything to stand on. Through it, the night’s high and last week’s sit at 31266.50 and 31282.50, and the bigger target is 31369.75, where Thursday topped out. Lose 31073 and September’s 31065.50 high under it, and NQ is back in Thursday’s afternoon with 30949.25, Thursday’s value floor, the first catch. Under that, 30840 is last week’s ceiling, and below it Thursday’s flush stopped at 30792.

CL:

Crude is over the night’s value and under last week’s 91.44 print, and that print is the trigger. Clear it and 91.76, the night’s high, is the first test, then 92 to 92.04, September’s POC on October’s ceiling. Thursday’s 92.30 ceiling and 92.42 open sit right over that pair, where Thursday’s whole selloff started, and 93.01, last week’s ceiling, is as far as the card goes. Lose 91.01, the night’s value ceiling, and 90.92 Thursday’s POC goes, then 90.58, the night’s print. Under 90.34 the last floor is 90.20, last week’s value low, with the 90.01 low the night bought back sitting under it.

GC:

Gold’s decision is 4195.80, the bottom of the value it built over the top of Thursday. Hold it and 4207.50 to 4218.80 comes back, the high of this week’s day sessions and the night’s print, then 4233.70, the night’s high. 4259, last week’s high, is the ceiling, and over it 4318, the floor of September’s value, is a long way up. Lose 4195.80 and the 4194.30 to 4190 shelf goes with it, October’s ceiling on last week’s print, and below that the night only passed through on the way up. That leaves 4174.40, this week’s value ceiling, and 4170.70, Thursday’s high, then 4165, October’s POC.

The White Van Stuff

The index books put the day’s lids right on top of where price is parked, ES on Thursday’s high and NQ on the shelf Thursday’s sellers built, so the book and the profile agree on where the work is. Gold’s book says the night already spent most of the day’s room before anybody woke up, and crude is sitting in the middle of its band with nothing leaning on it either way.

ES: The same-day lid is 7850, on Thursday’s high to the point, so both maps put the ceiling in the same spot. 7860 is the next mark over it and the day’s band ends at 7885.50, with 7840 the closest mark under price and 7830 the pivot under that.

NQ: NQ is parked just under 31200, the nearest interest overhead, with the 31250 heavy mark and the 31300 same-day lid stacked over Thursday’s shelf. Today’s pivot is 31100 and the floor the book gives it for the day is 30900.

CL: Crude is under 91.50, today’s pivot, and over 90.50, the nearest interest beneath it, close to dead center of the day’s band. 93 is the same-day lid and 89.50 the day’s floor.

GC: Gold is already over 4200, the same-day lid, and a few dollars under 4211.50, the top of the day’s band. 4220 is the nearest mark over price and 4195 the nearest one under it.

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The Plan

ES: ES is under Tuesday’s low at 7860 and stuck between that and the overnight low at 7832. Back over 7860 puts Tuesday’s value from 7872 to 7887 back in play. Lose 7832 and there’s air down to Friday’s VAH at 7790.

NQ: NQ gave back the whole overnight and is about 200 points under Tuesday’s low. Friday’s high at 31283 is the first reclaim line. Under the overnight low at 31206 you’re back in Friday’s value, 31163 and then 31060.

CL: Crude’s trading over all of Tuesday’s range. Tuesday’s high at 89.85 is the line. Over the overnight high at 90.61, Monday’s high at 91.31 and Friday’s POC at 91.44 are next.

GC: Gold dropped about a hundred bucks off Tuesday’s close and it’s sitting on the overnight low at 4097, with nothing on the profile under it. It has to reclaim 4152, Monday’s low and Friday’s VAL, before Tuesday’s value means anything.

The White Van Stuff

ES: Gamma is positive on ES, so the options book leans against moves inside the band. 7820 is today’s pivot and the expected low on the same print, and the first call stack overhead is 7854.

NQ: NQ is sitting right on the biggest put interest at 31254. If it holds, the calls from 31456 to 31582 are overhead. If it goes, the next real put stack is 31002.

CL: Gamma is negative on crude, so moves can stretch instead of getting absorbed. The put floor at 89.81 is right under price and the call ceiling is up at 92.90.

GC: The first call interest overhead is 4117. The 4063 put floor is the biggest put stack under price, and today’s biggest put strike is lower at 4008.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

ES is 7767.25, just over 7765 where Friday’s value ended and under 7775, the one price Friday, last week and October all did their business at. The night went looking both ways, poked 7793 over Friday’s ceiling, dropped to 7760.50 under its floor, and settled on a 7770 print right back in the middle. That is a market that tested both edges of Friday’s value and accepted neither, and now it’s sitting under the POC three timeframes share. Take 7775 back and 7782, last week’s VAH, is the first job, then 7793 where the night already got turned away once. Lose 7760.50, the night’s low, and 7754 is Friday’s low, the last shelf before 7743, the POC September built.

NQ is 31009, sitting on the floor of the value the night built and a hair over Friday’s 31004.50 value low, one session after printing 31282.50 for the highest trade it has ever made. The night ranged from 31221.25 down to 30974.75, under Friday’s 30988 low, and never got back near the record. The record sits on one day of value, because the week did its business all the way down at 30625, and the night already put a foot through that floor. Get the 31059.25 to 31060 shelf back, October’s value high and Friday’s POC, and 31163, Friday’s ceiling, is the next stop. Lose 30974.75 and the profile is empty all the way down to 30840, last week’s value high.

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The Tape

ES is 7761.25, sitting on the overnight POC at 7760 after the night rebuilt value above last week’s 7749.25 floor. Thursday sold from 7729.75 to 7672.75 and recovered to 7726, so the day was a failed selloff instead of a clean trend-down day. Globex never traded below 7723.25 and pushed to 7765.75, with value migrating up behind it instead of price wandering alone. Acceptance over 7765 opens 7771.50, last week’s POC, and 7786.25 at the week high, but a poke with no volume is the oldest trick in the book. Lose 7760 and the first real shelf is 7749.25, then September’s POC at 7743.

Read more

The Tape

ES is 7742.75, sitting on 7743, where September’s POC and this week’s POC share a price with the 7742 overnight print right on top. The most traded price of the whole month is exactly where October starts, which is a polite way of saying September settled nothing. Wednesday built its value up at 7770 and sold to a 7713 close, so everybody who bought that print is underwater, and the night rallied to 7767.75 and quit just under it, which is those same longs selling the first chance they got. That shelf is theirs until something proves otherwise. Over 7752, Wednesday’s value floor, the shelf gets tested again, and below 7725.25, last week’s low, 7709.25 is next.

NQ is holding over Wednesday’s 30906 high at 30931.75, tucked under 30944.75, the ceiling of the value the night built. It’s the only one of the four that took out September’s high, ran 31151.50 in the dark and handed most of it back before my alarm went off. The night did its business way down at 30830, so that run was price going exploring with no volume behind it, and value that doesn’t follow price is a probe I don’t trust. What argues the other way is NQ holding over Wednesday’s entire range while ES can’t even get back to Wednesday’s POC. Hold 30906 and 30944.75 is the gate, lose it and 30873.75, Wednesday’s value ceiling, is the first catch.

CL covered more ground overnight than Wednesday did all day and landed at 91.48, a hair over 91.35, Wednesday’s POC. It swept 88.79, through last week’s 89.47 low, found nobody home down there, and ripped to 92.90, a failed breakdown with a big receipt. The night did its business at 92.47, sitting over the 92 where September and last week both built their POC, and a slow drift back under all that volume hasn’t proven anything to anybody. Hold 91.35 and 91.67, Wednesday’s value ceiling, is the gate back to that shelf. Lose 90.80 and the night’s 90.49 value floor catches.

GC is sitting below everything last week built at 4205.90, parked on 4206.60, where the overnight’s value topped out. This week’s 4251.10 high never got back to last week’s 4279.50 low, so there’s an untouched gap overhead that this week never got near. Underneath, three sessions left their volume on the same couple of dollars, the week’s 4188.80 POC, Wednesday’s 4189.50 and the night’s 4190, and three sessions agreeing on one price is the closest thing to a floor gold has had all week. The catch is the night ran to 4222.80 and stopped a dime under Wednesday’s 4222.90 value ceiling, so the sellers still own that. Clear 4210.60, this week’s value high, and the fight moves up there, lose 4188.80 and 4169.40, the overnight low, is next.

The Calendar

Thursday, October 1 (all times CT):

- 4:30 Challenger Job Cuts (Sep)

- 6:45 Fed’s Kashkari Speaks

- 7:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 26)

- 7:30 Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 19)

- 7:30 Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average (Sep 26)

- 8:45 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

- 9:00 Fed Waller Speaks

- 9:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

- 9:00 ISM Manufacturing Employment (Sep)

- 9:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices (Sep)

- 9:00 ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Sep)

- 9:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (Sep 25)

- 10:30 8-Week Bill Auction

- 10:30 4-Week Bill Auction

- 12:30 Fed’s Governor Jefferson Speaks

- 2:00 Fed’s Bowman speech

- 2:30 Fed’s Governor Cook Testifies

- 2:30 Fed’s Williams Speaks

- 3:30 Fed’s Balance Sheet (Sep 30)

- 3:30 Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks (Sep 30)

The Plan

ES:

7743 is September’s POC and ES is on it, so the first job is watching which side of it volume picks. Over 7752, Wednesday’s value floor, with 7749.25, last week’s value floor, just under it, ES gets a crack at 7762.75, this week’s VAH. Clear that and 7767.75 to 7771.50 is the shelf, the night’s high, Wednesday’s POC and last week’s POC stacked together, and the people who bought Wednesday’s top get to break even up there, so I want to see what happens before I trust anything over it. Lose 7725.25, last week’s low, and the week’s 7713.75 value floor and Wednesday’s 7709.25 low are one shelf, with the overnight low right behind it. Lose that and 7696.50, September’s value floor, is the last stop before 7575, September’s low.

NQ:

NQ has to hold 30906, Wednesday’s high, for the overnight run to mean anything, and nothing is decided between there and 30936.25. Over 30944.75, the overnight VAH, everything overhead is an old ceiling, 30950 last week’s value top and 30980.75 from Sep 22, places sellers already won once. Get through those and 31013, the Sep 23 high, opens the trip back to 31065.50, September’s high, with 31151.50, the overnight high, the last thing on the map, and this time I want volume following price up there, because last night it didn’t. Lose it and Wednesday’s 30873.75 value ceiling and 30850 POC are the first catch, with 30830, the night’s print, right under them. Under that, 30785.25, Wednesday’s value floor, opens 30740, last week’s POC, and 30724.75, where the overnight’s value bottomed.

CL:

Crude’s first job is 91.67, Wednesday’s value ceiling, with 91.35 underneath it the level that has to hold. Over it, 91.96, Wednesday’s high, is the doorstep to 92, September’s POC and last week’s on one price, with the night’s 92.47 print sitting on top. That’s the most agreed-on price on crude’s chart, so clearing it and the 92.90 overnight high opens 93.80, last week’s value top, with 95.70, this week’s high, the last of it. Lose 90.80, Wednesday’s value floor, and 90.49 to 90.21 is one shelf, the overnight value floor sitting on last week’s. Under that, 89.99, this week’s value floor, is all that stands in front of 89.58, the bottom of September’s value.

GC:

4206.60 and 4210.60 are stacked right over gold, the overnight value ceiling and this week’s, and gold has to get through both before a bounce counts. Clear them and 4220.80 to 4222.90, Wednesday’s open and value ceiling, is the first wall, the same spot the night stalled, with 4251.10, Wednesday’s high and the week’s, behind it. Over that, the gap up to 4279.60, last week’s value floor, hasn’t been traded all week, and 4318 to 4320, September’s VAL on last week’s POC, is the far end of it. Lose 4188.80, the week’s POC with Wednesday’s and the night’s on the same couple of dollars, and 4181.50, Wednesday’s value floor, goes first, then 4169.40, the overnight low. Under that, the only level left on the map is 4163.80, the floor of this week’s value.

The White Van Stuff

Both index books put their same-day lid right over the shelf the profile already flagged, which is the book and the chart agreeing for once. Crude’s book is upside down, with the same-day floor sitting over price, a few ticks from where the night did its business. Gold’s crams today’s pivot, the floor and the lid into one tight pile right overhead.

ES: ES is between 7745, the pivot, and 7730, today’s pivot. The same-day put floor at 7725 sits on last week’s low and the 7775 lid sits just over Wednesday’s POC, so the book and the profile agree on both ends. Price is 7742.75, under the 7745.

NQ: NQ ran through 31000, the same-day lid, and even printed over 31110.50, the high end of the day’s band, before coming back under all of it. 30900 is the nearest mark under price and the floor for the day sits way down at 30500. Price is 30931.75, between the 30900 and the 31000 lid.

CL: Crude’s same-day floor is 92.50, over price and a few ticks above the 92.47 print the night built, with the 93.50 lid just past the band’s upper end. Under price it’s 91, the pivot, then 90.75, today’s pivot. Price is 91.48, between the 91 pivot and the 92.50.

GC: Gold’s book stacks 4220, 4225 and 4230 right over price, the nearby mark, today’s pivot and the same-day put floor on one number, and today’s cap, with the first two sitting on Wednesday’s open and value ceiling. Under price it’s 4180, then 4150 for the put floor and 4132.50 at the bottom of the band. Price is 4205.90, between the 4180 and the 4220.

It’s a trap!

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Tape

ES is 7733.75, back on Tuesday’s 7732.50 close and 7731 POC after losing the entire overnight value, and 7731 is the line that decides it. Tuesday could not keep 7758.50, then closed 7732.50 on a 7731 POC. The overnight built above that close, but the trip from 7756.50 back to 7732.50 erased the whole audition. Reclaim 7741.25, the base of overnight value, and 7745.25 is the first proof before 7752.50. Lose 7731 and last week’s 7725.25 low catches before Tuesday’s 7722.50 value floor.

NQ is 30593.25, parked between 30586.75 overnight VAL and the 30600 overnight print, a shelf that has to pick a side at 30600. Tuesday could not keep 30725.50 and closed 30617 on a 30615 POC, so the day did its business well above current price. The night ran 30737, then dumped to 30539.75 and left price clinging to the bottom of the value it built. Take 30600 back and buyers run into Tuesday’s 30615 POC, with the 30617 close sitting on it. Give up 30588.25, the September VAH, and 30557.25 catches before the 30539.75 overnight low.

CL is 90.31, sitting on Tuesday’s 90.34 POC after the overnight bought back above its own 89.88 value ceiling, and that is a reclaim with exactly zero room for victory laps. Tuesday ran 91.76, then closed 89.35 near its 89.29 low. The night swept 88.58, and put value back above 89.05 before the rebound. Hold 90.34 and the 90.64 overnight high is the gate, then 90.76 Tuesday open. Lose 90.21, last week’s value floor, and 89.99 catches before the 89.58 September VAL.

GC is 4215.40, holding over 4210 overnight VAL after opening the night above Tuesday’s 4207.20 high, and that is the cleanest location of the four. Tuesday settled 4180.70 under its 4182.60 value floor after failing at 4207.20, then the overnight ignored all of it. Globex traded around 4216.13 VWAP, built its 4227 POC upstairs, and has kept the 4197.60 low away from current price. Hold 4210 and price works into 4227 before the 4234 overnight high. Lose 4210 and Tuesday’s 4207.20 high is the gate to the 4197.60 overnight low.

The Calendar

Wednesday, September 30 (all times CT):

- 7:15 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)

- 7:30 PCE Price index (MoM) (Aug)

- 7:30 Core PCE - Price Index (YoY) (Aug)

- 7:30 GDP Price Index (Q2)

- 7:30 Goods Trade Balance - Prelim (Aug)

- 7:30 PCE Prices (Q2)

- 7:30 Real Personal Consumption (Aug)

- 7:30 Core PCE Prices (QoQ) (Q2)

- 7:30 Real Consumer Spending (Q2)

- 7:30 Personal Spending (MoM) (Aug)

- 7:30 GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

- 7:30 Core PCE - Price Index (MoM) (Aug)

- 7:30 PCE Price index (YoY) (Aug)

- 7:30 Personal Income (MoM) (Aug)

- 8:45 Chicago PMI (Sep)

- 9:00 Dallas Fed PCE (Aug)

- 9:30 EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks (Sep 25)

- 9:30 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (Sep 25)

- 9:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Sep 25)

- 9:30 EIA Refinery Crude Runs (Sep 25)

- 9:30 Crude Oil Imports (Sep 25)

- 9:30 EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (Sep 25)

- 9:30 Crude Oil Inventories (Sep 25)

- 2:25 Fed’s Governor Cook Testifies

- 3:05 Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks

- 5:00 Fed’s Kashkari Speaks

The Plan

ES:

ES is 7733.75, sitting on the 7732.50 Tuesday close with the 7731 POC underneath, and the job is proving this shelf has buyers. Acceptance above 7741.25 overnight VAL puts 7743, the September POC, back in play before 7749.25 prev week VAL. Clear the 7756.50 overnight high and 7757.50 Tuesday open and August’s 7763.25 value floor is the first prior-month paper overhead. Break 7731 and last week’s 7725.25 low catches before 7712.25, where Tuesday and this week both bottomed. Under that shelf the 7691.75 September VAL opens August’s 7610.50 low, then 7575 where September bottomed.

NQ:

NQ is 30593.25, barely over 30586.75, where overnight VAL and the August high land on the same price, and that stack means something with September’s 30588.25 ceiling on top. Take 30600 and the first test is the 30615 Tuesday POC, then the 30625 week POC. Acceptance through 30650 opens last week’s 30658.25 value floor and the 30675.25 overnight VAH. Lose 30588.25 and the 30557.25 Tuesday VAL catches before the 30539.75 overnight low. Below 30504.50 the map thins to 30221.75 August VAH on the 30216.50 prev week low.

CL:

CL is 90.31, balanced between Tuesday’s 90.34 POC and last week’s 90.21 value floor, and the catch is how many ways this narrow spot can make somebody look smart after the fact. Hold 90.34 and the 90.64 overnight high is the gate before the 90.76 Tuesday open. Acceptance above 91.22 brings the 91.76 Tuesday high and 92, the prev week and September POC. Lose 90.21 and the 89.99 Tuesday VAL opens 89.58, September’s value floor. Under the 89.35 Tuesday close, this map has no prior-month paper before the 83.40 August high and 82.35 August VAH.

GC:

GC is 4215.40, holding 4210 overnight VAL over Tuesday’s 4207.20 high, and that is the cleanest shelf on the board even though buyers have not cleared the night’s volume. Hold 4210 and price works into the 4227 overnight POC before the 4234 high. Acceptance there opens 4279.60 prev week VAL, 4320 prev week POC, then 4324.70 September VAL. Above that, 4367.60 prev week VAH and 4380.70 August VAL are the upper paper. Lose 4210 and the overnight low opens the shared POC at 4187, then Tuesday’s close at 4180.70.

The White Van Stuff

The white van parked both index cages right on current price and left everyone arguing over a few ticks like adults. Crude has heavy paper stacked above it, while gold has a clean floor nearby and enough space overhead to make the duct tape nervous. Completely normal market behavior.

ES: ES is under 7750, where today’s pivot and put floor landed on the same number, with 7760 the lid buyers have to clear. The first marks below price are 7725 and 7720, while the band stretches to 7672.50. Price is 7733.75, caught between 7725 and 7750.

NQ: NQ has 30600 sitting just overhead and today’s 30540 pivot underneath, so current price is already inside the smallest useful cage. The floor for the day is 30300 with the 30285.25 band low on it, while 30750 is today’s cap. Price is 30593.25, under 30600 and over 30540.

CL: CL is back over 90, the floor for the day, but still under 90.50, the nearest mark above price. The upside stacks the 91.75 pivot under today’s 92 cap and the 92.06 band high. Price is 90.31, over 90 and under 90.50.

GC: GC is over 4200, where today’s pivot and put floor share one number, with 4220 the first mark overhead. Today’s cap is 4235 and the band high is 4272.90, while 4157.10 leaves real room underneath. Price is 4215.40, over 4200 and under 4220.

Tradingview Enjoyers, its time to grow up and realize your indicators suck, are not based on real volume and tick data, and can be reverse-engineered in an hour. It’s not that deep.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES is 7761.5, nine points off the 7770.75 overnight high and holding over 7751.25 overnight VAH after reclaiming Monday’s 7746.25 close and POC. The night ran 7716 through last week’s low and bought every tick back, a failed breakdown that found buyers early and kept going. Hold 7751.25 and 7763.75 September POC is the first real argument, then 7765.50 Monday VAH and the 7770.75 high. Lose 7751.25 overnight VAH and 7746.25 catches, then 7743.75 the night’s print before value gives way at 7735.25.

NQ is 30677.0, sitting right on the 30675 Monday VAH after clearing 30658.25 prev week VAL overnight, with the 30707 overnight high 30 points up. It took back Monday’s whole value area, so the reclaim is done and the question now is whether it accepts up here. Hold 30675 and 30707 gets tested first, then 30718 Monday open with 30740 prev week POC behind it. Give up 30658.25 and 30638 Monday POC catches, then 30592.75 overnight VAH with 30567.50 Monday close waiting below it.

CL is 91.27, three ticks under 91.30 Monday VAL and sitting on the 91.25 Monday low after the night flushed to 90.80 and bounced. It is out the bottom of Monday’s value with the 92.00 POC shared by September and last week 73 ticks overhead. Reclaim 91.30 and 92.00 becomes the fight, then 92.22 overnight VAL and 92.58 Monday POC put 93.80 prev week VAH back in play. Lose 91.25 and 90.80 overnight low catches before 90.22 September VAL.

GC is 4187.4, six bucks under the 4193.30 overnight high and over the 4180.40 overnight VAH. Monday reached 4203.80, failed to keep the open, and closed down after sellers owned the afternoon. The night built its POC at 4166, walked back through the top of value, and capped out just over here. Clear 4193.30 and Monday’s 4199.70 open comes before the 4203.80 high. Fall back under 4180.40 and 4177.20 catches first, then the whole reclaim is in trouble at 4166.

The Calendar

Tuesday, September 29 (all times CT):

- 8:00 House Price Index (MoM) (Jul)

- 8:00 S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Jul)

- 8:00 S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Jul)

- 9:00 JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)

- 9:00 Consumer Confidence (Sep)

- 9:30 Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Sep)

- 10:00 Fed’s Bowman speech

- 10:30 52-Week Bill Auction

- 11:40 Fed’s Barr Speaks

- 12:00 Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks

- 1:00 Fed’s Williams Speaks

- 2:00 Fed Waller Speaks

- 3:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (Sep 25)

The Plan

ES:

ES is 7761.5, a few points under 7763.75 September POC and holding above Monday’s close after printing 7770.75 overnight, which means the reclaim has legs if it accepts here. Acceptance over 7763.75 opens 7765.50 Monday VAH, then the 7770.75 overnight high with 7771.50 prev week POC stacked right on it. Once that shelf gives, 7786.25 Monday high comes before 7814.75 September VAH. Back under 7751.25 overnight VAH, 7746.25 Monday close meets 7743.75 overnight POC, the first place sellers have to prove the break was real. Below 7735.25 Monday VAL, 7729 overnight VAL then 7725.25 prev week low are the last real catches before 7691.25 September VAL.

NQ:

NQ is 30677.0, a couple of points over 30675 Monday VAH with the prev week VAL and Monday POC already behind it, a reclaim that now has to hold value instead of chase it. Accept over 30675 and 30707 overnight high comes up first, then 30718 Monday open and 30740 prev week POC before 30950 prev week VAH. Give back 30658.25 prev week VAL and 30638 Monday POC catches, then 30592.75 overnight VAH and 30567.50 Monday close before 30507.50 Monday VAL. Under 30507.50, the bottom of the wider map is 30440 overnight POC sitting over 30419 overnight VAL.

CL:

Crude is 91.27, three ticks under 91.30 Monday VAL and a couple over the 91.25 Monday low, so it is hanging off the bottom of Monday’s value after the overnight flush to 90.80. Reclaim 91.30 and the 92 POC shared by September and last week is where the fight starts, then 92.22 overnight VAL and 92.58 Monday POC put 93.80 prev week VAH back in the auction. From there 94.00 overnight POC and 94.14 overnight VAH lead to 94.36 Monday VAH. Lose 91.25 and 90.80 overnight low catches first, then 90.22 September VAL where the month’s value ends. Below that, 89.47 prev week low and 83.42 September low are the distant catches.

GC:

Gold is 4187.4, 70 ticks over 4180.40 overnight VAH and a few dollars under the high of the night, so the reclaim is real but unfinished. Hold the value edge and 4193.30 gives way to 4199.70 Monday open, where sellers already won once. Clear 4203.80 and 4279.60 prev week VAL is the next real shelf, with 4380.70 August VAL above the whole stack. Slip under 4180.40 overnight VAH and 4177.20 Monday VAH catches before 4166 overnight POC. Below 4166, the 4143.10 September low is the last session level before 4079.20 August low.

The White Van Stuff

Both index books have more weight stacked above current price than immediately below it, and NQ is already trading through the first of it while ES sits between its 7755 pivot and 7800. Crude trades under its same-day floor while gold is pressing the upper end of its daily band. Four books, four different arguments, very helpful.

ES: The book puts 7755 at today’s pivot, now just under price, with 7750 and 7745 the next marks below and 7730 the same-day floor underneath, while 7800 is the first thing above. Price is 7761.5, over the 7755 pivot and under the 7800.

NQ: NQ has 30675 as today’s cap and is trading two points over it, with 30750 the next stop above and 30600 and the 30590 pivot underneath. Price is 30677.0, over the 30675 cap and under the 30750.

CL: Crude is 73 ticks under 92, where the same-day floor sits, with 90.50 the nearest mark below it and 93 carrying today’s pivot above. Price is 91.27, under the 92 floor and over the 90.50.

GC: Gold is pressing the top of its daily band with 4200 as today’s cap and 4204 as the expected high, while 4175 is the nearest mark underneath. Price is 4187.4, over the 4175 and under the 4200.

Wax on, wax off.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES is 7766.75, sitting on 7769, the overnight POC, with 7763.25, the floor of August’s value, right under it and nothing decided in between. The night sold Friday’s 7804.50 close all the way to 7757, so Friday’s entire value from 7779 to 7812.75 is overhead and everybody who bought it is underwater. It is still inside what last week built and a few ticks under 7771.50, last week’s POC, so for now this is a pullback that hasn’t broken anything. Take 7771.50 back and 7778.25 to 7779 is the next shelf, the overnight VAH on Friday’s VAL, with 7803.50, the POC Friday closed on, behind it. Lose 7757 and Friday’s 7752.75 low goes with it into 7749.25, the bottom of last week’s value, then 7711.50 where September did its business.

Read more

The Tape

ES is 7783.25, a tick under 7783.50 where Thursday topped out on the ceiling of September’s value, and back under 7790, the print the night built its whole session around. The night stacked its value from 7769.75 to 7800.25 right on top of Thursday’s, and buyers don’t build a box like that by accident. What it hasn’t done is get through 7800, the same-day lid in the options book, sitting on the 7800.75 overnight high with 7824 over it where this week’s value topped out. That 7824 is the reoffer spot if all of this turns out to be a bounce. Stay under 7783.50 and the next shelf is Thursday’s POC at 7770, with this week’s print stacked on it at 7770.75.

NQ is 30875.75, back under 30888, the print the night built on, and hanging on to 30870, the top of this week’s value, by a few points. The night ran 30999.50, two ticks under the 31000 same-day lid, and got turned back right there. I hate the big round numbers, it’s so dumb, and the market clearly agrees because that’s where somebody sold it. Buyers still built value the whole way up overnight, 30789.75 to 30999.25, so this wasn’t a thin poke through the highs. Under 30870, Thursday’s ceiling is the catch, 30819 up to the 30827.50 high.

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The Tape

ES is 7726.25, back inside last week’s territory after the night sold straight through Wednesday’s 7758.75 low and didn’t stop until 7707.25, right on 7708.75, the POC last week built, with September’s 7711.50 print sitting on top of it. When last week and the whole month leave their volume on the same few points, that’s where somebody defends, and they did. What buyers haven’t done is get back over 7743, where the night built its value before sellers took it lower, and 7743 to 7750 is where sellers already won once, so assume they’re still there. Take 7750 back and 7758.75 to 7763.25, Wednesday’s low with August’s value floor on it, is the line that says Wednesday’s selloff is done. Lose 7718.25, the floor of the night’s value, and 7708.75 to 7711.50 has to hold a second time, because under 7707.25 the map is empty to 7668.25, where last week’s value starts.

NQ is 30448.25, sitting on 30440, the print the night built its session around, after selling from 30813 to 30370 and leaving Wednesday’s whole 30657.25 to 30783.50 value area behind it. It also gave back 30586.75, August’s high, the level this week’s rally ran through on the way to 31065.50, and that’s the one that bugs me. Value built at the bottom of the night, so sellers weren’t just running stops down here, they stayed and did business. Take 30586.75 back and 30657.25, Wednesday’s value floor, is the first real test with 30689.75, the top of overnight value, right behind it. Lose 30370, the night’s low and value floor on the same tick, and there’s nothing until 30221.75, where August’s value topped out.

CL is 93.70, up near the top of an overnight value area that runs all the way from 91.26 to 93.83, and over Wednesday’s 92.18 close. It ran 94.69 in the dark, the highest crude has traded all week, and gave some of it back before Chicago woke up. The volume doesn’t back it up, because the night did its business at 91.55, way under price, so the move up here is running on thin trade. Get through 93.83 and 94.69 comes first, then 95.53, last week’s low and the floor crude fell through to start this week. Lose 92.89, Wednesday’s high, and 92 is where it lands, Wednesday’s POC and September’s on the same number, with 91.55 the night’s print under it.

GC is 4294.20, right back on 4293, the low of last week and September both, after the night broke it, flushed to 4278.30 and bought the whole thing back. Breaking the month’s low and taking it back in one night is a failed breakdown only if it sticks, and gold hasn’t cleared 4301 yet, the floor of the value the night built up at 4323.50. It’s down from 4351.40 Wednesday morning and 4558.50 earlier this month, so I’m not going to pretend one reclaimed low turns that around. Take 4301 back and 4311.50 to 4314.50, Wednesday’s low and value floor, is the shelf it has to chew through before 4320 and 4323.50, the two prints. Lose 4278.30 and the map is blank all the way to 4079.20, August’s low.

The Calendar

Thursday, September 24 (all times CT):

- 7:30 Jobless claims, initial and continuing, with building permits for August

- 9:00 New home sales for August

- 9:30 Nat gas storage

- 10:00 Kansas City Fed manufacturing

- 12:00 7-year note auction

The Plan

ES:

ES has to get back over 7743 and 7750, where the night built its value before sellers took it lower, before there’s a long worth talking about. Over that, 7758.75 to 7763.25 is the real line, Wednesday’s low with August’s value floor on it, and acceptance back inside puts 7771.25, the POC Wednesday closed near, and 7779.25, the night’s high, in play. 7787.75 to 7789, September’s value high on Wednesday’s, is the ceiling after that. Under 7719.75, last week’s high, the night’s 7718.25 value floor and 7715, last week’s value high, are one shelf, then 7708.75 to 7711.50, where last week and September both did their business, already held once at 7707.25. Lose 7707.25 and it’s air to 7668.25 and 7661, where last week’s and September’s value start.

NQ:

NQ is sitting on 30440, the night’s print, and 30586.75 is the level that matters, August’s high, the one this week’s rally ran through and the night just gave back. A breakout level that gets handed back overnight is a failed breakout until it’s reclaimed, so I’m not trusting the bounce off 30370 on its own. Take it back and 30642.75 to 30657.25, Wednesday’s low and value floor, is the first shelf, with 30689.75, the top of overnight value, sitting right on it. Clear that stack and 30740, Wednesday’s POC, and 30783.50, its value high, are next, with 30813 the night’s high above them. Lose 30370, the night’s low and value floor on one tick, and 30221.75, August’s value high, is the next real volume, with 29938.25 and 29903.75, September’s and last week’s value highs, stacked under it.

CL:

Crude is trading between 92.89, Wednesday’s high, and 93.83, the top of overnight value, and it needs to get through the upper one before the week’s bounce off 89.47 means anything. Through it, 94.69 is the night’s high, and above that 95.53, last week’s low, is where crude fell through to start this week, so that’s where last week’s sellers are waiting. 96.70 to 96.83, September’s value high and last week’s value low, sit right above it. Lose 92.89 and 92.15 to 92.18 is Wednesday’s value high with its close on it, and 92, Wednesday’s POC and September’s on the same number, is the real floor. Under 92 it’s the night’s 91.55 print and 91.12, Wednesday’s value low.

GC:

Gold is at 4294.20, back on 4293, last week’s and September’s low, and still under 4301, the floor of overnight value. One night back over the month’s low doesn’t buy gold much credit after the week it’s had, so the long case starts at 4301 and not a tick lower. Take 4301 back and 4311.50 to 4314.50, Wednesday’s low and value floor, is the first shelf, then 4318.60 to 4320, Wednesday’s close and POC, with the night’s 4323.50 print right above them. Clear those and 4330.20, Wednesday’s value high, opens 4335 to 4337, last week’s POC with the night’s value high on it. Lose 4278.30, the night’s low, and the profile is empty to 4079.20, August’s low.

The White Van Stuff

The overnight took ES and NQ through the bottom of today’s expected range and pushed gold under its floor for the day, and all three bounced right off the line, which is either the book doing its job or the white van boys running everybody’s stops on schedule. Three of the four books put their pivot or heaviest strike on the exact price Wednesday did its business at, 7770 on ES, 30740 on NQ and 92 on crude, so the book and the profile finally agree on something. Gold is the outlier, with its pivot way up at 4350, at the top of Wednesday’s range.

ES:

ES is 7726.25, in the bottom third of a band that runs from 7708.50 to 7837, and the night stopped at 7707.25, the bottom of it almost to the tick. 7700 is the floor for the day and 7735 the nearest interest over price, with 7770, the heaviest strike, and 7790, today’s pivot, stacked on Wednesday’s POC and value high.

NQ:

NQ is under 30600, its floor for the day, so the book already got run over once, and the night’s 30370 low went through 30414.25, the bottom of the band. 30400 is the nearest interest under price and 30300 the put floor, with 30740, today’s pivot, sitting right on Wednesday’s POC.

CL:

Crude is 93.70, over the 93.50 interest and between 92.50, today’s pivot, and the 95 cap, with 95.76 the top of the band. 92 is the floor for the day and the heaviest strike on the same number, and it’s Wednesday’s POC too, so the book and the profile agree on where crude’s floor is.

GC:

Gold broke 4285, today’s put floor, overnight, got to 4278.30 and came back over it, and now sits at 4294.20 right under 4300. 4268.40 is the bottom of the band with 4275 and 4260 the heavy interest around it, and 4350, today’s pivot and heaviest strike, is way up at the top of Wednesday’s range.

See you at 8am CT

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES is 7822, sitting a quarter point under Tuesday’s 7822.25 low after the overnight auction reached 7818.75 and bounced. Tuesday rotated around 7832, but that print and the close are both overhead now, so yesterday’s balance has turned into today’s first reoffer zone. Take back 7826.75 and the climb through 7830 to 7832 can start repairing the break. Hold above that shelf and buyers get another shot at the stacked ceilings around 7839 and 7841.50. Lose 7818.75 and the next real volume does not show up until September’s 7771.50 ceiling.

Read more

The Tape

ES is 7838.5, boxed between the double POC at 7835.75 and August’s 7841.50 print, which is an impressively stupid place to force a trade. Monday was a real trend-up day, running from 7758.25 to 7847.25 and closing at 7833.25 with value parked near the high. The overnight could only reach 7843.75, held a tight cage above 7830, and kept returning to 7835.75. Acceptance over 7841.50 gets another shot at 7843.75 and Monday’s 7847.25 high. Lose the shared print and 7833.25 to 7830 catches first, with the overnight low waiting at 7810.50.

NQ is 30772.25, sitting under the 30780 overnight print and Monday’s 30784.25 close after the night gave back a fresh high. Monday was a runaway trend-up session from 30216.50 to 30862.75, with the 30805 POC confirming buyers did business upstairs instead of poking and leaving. Globex cleared that high to 30916.50, then slid back inside value and under its own VWAP at 30815.48. Reclaim 30784.25 and the reoffer runs through 30805 toward 30862.75. Break 30752.75 and the overnight low is the first test, followed by August’s old high at 30586.75.

CL is 90.43, right on the 90.32 overnight print after trading both sides of Monday’s entire range. Monday sold from 93.76 to 91.19 and left its 92.37 POC near the close, which was ugly before Globex made it uglier. The night ripped to 93.84, puked to 89.16, and built its volume around 90.32. A bounce into 91.19 and 91.48 is where sellers get another chance, while 92.20 is the reclaim that makes the washout matter. Lose 89.17 and September’s value floor is next, then the chart gets very thin below 88.50.

GC is 4364.2, holding above Monday’s 4360.30 low and the 4349.50 overnight value floor after the night bought the whole disaster back. Monday was a trend-down session from 4407.80 to 4360.30, with value sliding lower and the 4388 POC abandoned by the close. Globex tried 4414.10 first, failed, then flushed to 4327.60 before crawling back near the middle of its value. Hold 4349.50 and reclaim 4373.70 to 4374.10, and the failed low has a case. Break the overnight value floor and 4335 is the only real shelf before another look at 4327.60.

The Calendar

Tuesday, September 22 (all times CT):

- 9:05 Fed’s Williams Speaks

- 9:20 Fed’s Governor Jefferson Speaks

- 12:00 2-Year Note Auction (Aug)

- 12:00 Fed’s Barkin speech

- 3:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (Sep 18)

The Plan

ES:

ES is 7838.5 under the 7840.75 trigger and pressed against August’s 7841.50 POC, so this little box gets watched until somebody wins it. If buyers build above that print, 7843.75 and Monday’s 7847.25 high come first, then 7886 where August’s value topped. Clear that and the next structural stop is the August high at 7906.25; fail here and the shared 7835.75 POC catches before Monday’s 7833.25 close. Acceptance below 7830 opens the overnight low at 7810.50, then Monday’s value floor at 7793.75. Under there, September’s 7768.75 ceiling sits on August’s 7763.25 floor, and the last shelf is the prior-week high at 7719.75.

NQ:

NQ is 30772.25 under the 30780 trigger and Monday’s 30784.25 close, right where a huge day can either rest or start giving itself back. Take the close and 30805 is the first magnet, followed by Monday’s 30862.75 high and the overnight ceiling at 30873.50. Hold above that ceiling and 30916.50 is the next test; lose 30752.75 instead and the overnight low at 30670 gets the vote. Below it, August’s 30586.75 high leads to Monday’s 30513.75 value floor, then the 30222 open. Break the 30216.50 Monday low and the next volume is way down at September’s 29938.25 ceiling beside the prior-week 29903.75 ceiling.

CL:

Crude is 90.43 right on the 90.32 overnight print, and that location says the giant round trip has solved absolutely nothing. Reclaim the 91.19 Monday low and 91.48 starts its value, with the overnight ceiling at 92.20 above it. Acceptance there brings the 92.37 POC back into play, then Monday’s 93.76 high and last week’s 95.53 low. Lose 89.17 and September’s floor at 88.50 is the trapdoor, with August’s 83.40 high below it. Under that, the staircase runs through 82.35 and the 78.23 print toward the August low at 69.48.

GC:

Gold is 4364.2, holding above the 4360.30 Monday low and over the 4349.50 overnight value floor. Stay above that floor and 4373.70 to 4374.10 is the first shelf, followed by August’s 4380.70 value low. Clear the 4383 overnight print and the 4388 POC is the magnet under Monday’s 4394 ceiling. That ceiling opens the road toward last week’s 4397.90 value high; fail back under 4349.50 and the prior-week 4335 POC catches first. Lose it and the overnight low at 4327.60 is the gate, with last week’s 4293 floor before the August low at 4079.20.

The White Van Stuff

The equity books are stacked closest to price after Monday’s rip, while crude’s map is upside down and gold has the widest room to wander. Nothing here fixes the lack of a read. It does tell us where the weird little white van might be parked when price arrives.

ES: ES is under today’s cap with heavy interest packed above it, while the pivot and put floor sit well below the overnight range. The nearest marks are 7860 overhead and 7830 underneath, so price is squeezed between the lid and the first floor.

NQ: NQ sits between nearby interest at 30750 and 30800, with today’s cap still above at 31000. The expected band leaves plenty of room both ways, but right now the book is pinning price near 30750.

CL: Crude is just over the 90 mark and miles below the 92.75 pivot, while the listed put floor is somehow sitting above price at 92.50. That is either useful tension or the white van getting lost again. The nearest honest bracket around price is 90 to 91.

GC: Gold is under today’s 4370 pivot and the 4375 mark. The 4350 level sits beneath it, with the expected low beside 4325. The book gets interesting only if this bounce can keep its head above 4350.

What will my next project be? You’ll find out soon.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES is 7764.00, wedged between August’s 7763.25 value floor and the overnight ceiling at 7770.25 after clearing everything Friday and last week built. Friday was a rotation day that closed right on its 7712.50 POC, then the overnight auction moved the entire conversation upstairs. Value followed the move and built around 7760, so this was more than one lonely poke above the old highs. Hold the August floor and buyers get another shot at the 7771.25 high, where the profile gets thin in a hurry. Fall back through 7760 and 7758.25, and the next clean structural catch is 7743.75.

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The Tape

ES sits at 7722.25, inside the overnight value area of 7713.75 to 7738.00, just above Thursday’s VAH. The night opened low and ran high to 7739.25 before settling into that cage, while Thursday sold off from 7713.50 to a 7680.50 low before closing back up at 7707.25. Price is currently testing the upper half of the overnight range, with the 7734.25 POC acting as the immediate magnet overhead. Below, the 7713.75 floor holds the line against Thursday’s close. If it loses 7713.75, the path opens to 7708.75, then 7694.25.

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The Tape

ES is back in the 7680s with the night’s volume built at 7686, right on top of 7680, the POC Wednesday gave up on the way to a close under its value. Wednesday printed a 7575 low and closed down near it, and the night dipped to 7617.50 and bought all of that back, so that’s a failed breakdown, and building value up here instead of down by the lows says the buyers aren’t only covering. What it hasn’t done is print over 7690.75, and 7698 to 7699, Wednesday’s value high and high, is Wednesday’s ceiling. Take 7699 and hold it and 7719.75, this week’s high, opens 7742.50, last week’s value high. Lose 7680 and 7662.50, the overnight value low, catches with 7659, September’s value low, under it, and under 7623.25 it’s air to 7575.

NQ is up in the 29500s, the only one of the four trading over Wednesday’s whole range after the night ran through the 29549.75 high and this week’s 29604.50 to print 29614. The night still did its business back down at 29450, next to Wednesday’s 29460 POC and September’s 29449.25. Three POCs stacked together is where this market actually traded, and a push that hasn’t built anything up here is a push until value follows it. Take 29614 back and 29668, the bottom of last week’s value, is the gate with 29742.25, last week’s POC, behind it. Lose 29546.25, Wednesday’s value high, and 29524.75 goes quick, then the 29449.25 to 29460 stack is the real test.

CL is the one that didn’t get bought, still down in the bottom of a night that sold from 102.47 and took out Wednesday’s 100.97 low and this week’s 100.79. The night built its volume right down here, a 100.65 POC with value from 100.38 to 101.61, so the sellers are doing business at the lows instead of running stops and leaving. Under it is the 100 handle with last week’s 100.05 POC sitting on it, the one shelf this whole move hasn’t tested yet. Take 100.97 back and 101.26, Wednesday’s value low, is the gate, then 101.50, where this week and September left the same POC. Lose 100.33 and 100.05 catches, and under 100 the map is thin to 95.70, last week’s value low.

GC is chopping on 4363 to 4365, the overnight value high and Wednesday’s 4364.50 low, after flushing to 4294.50 right on top of 4293, September’s low, and running back to 4379.70. Buyers showing up on the month’s low is a real failed breakdown, but the night built its volume at 4325, way under here, so this bounce is running ahead of any value behind it. Overhead, 4375.40 to 4388.20 stacks September’s, August’s, Wednesday’s and last week’s value lows under Wednesday’s close, and the 4379.70 overnight high already stalled in the middle of that. Take 4388.20 back and 4398.70, Wednesday’s value high, opens 4405, where last week did its business, right on Wednesday’s high. Lose 4363.70 and 4333, last week’s low, catches with 4325, the night’s POC, right under it.

The Calendar

Thursday, September 17 (all times CT):

- 7:30 Jobless claims, plus Philly Fed manufacturing and the whole survey stack that rides with it

- 7:30 Housing starts and building permits for August

- 9:00 Pending home sales and the leading index for August

- 9:30 Nat gas storage

- 10:30 4-week and 8-week bill auctions

- 12:00 10-year TIPS auction

- 3:30 The Fed’s balance sheet

The 7:30 stack is the only one with teeth for all four.

The Plan

ES:

Price is sitting on 7686, the overnight POC, so this is a jump ball until something moves off it. I want to see 7690.75 taken and held before longs make any sense, because 7698 to 7699, Wednesday’s value high and high, is the first thing a push runs into. Take that shelf and 7719.75, this week’s high, opens 7742.50, last week’s VAH, with 7746.75, September’s POC, right behind it. Under 7680, Wednesday’s POC, the read is short and 7662.50, the bottom of the night’s value, catches first, then 7659, September’s value low, on 7653.50, last week’s. Under that pair it’s 7623.25, Wednesday’s value low, and then the profile is empty to 7575.

NQ:

Everything on NQ runs through 29546.25, Wednesday’s value high, because holding over Wednesday’s whole range is the only thing that makes this more than a stop run. Over it, 29614, the overnight high, is the gate, and 29668, last week’s VAL, has 29742.25, where last week built its volume, behind it. The honest problem is volume, the night did its business at 29450 and nothing has built up here yet. Lose 29546.25 and 29524.75, the overnight value high, goes quick, then 29449.25 to 29460 is three POCs stacked together and the real test. Under that stack 29386.75, Wednesday’s open, sits on 29338, the overnight value low, and the map thins out to 29270, Wednesday’s value low.

CL:

Crude is working around 100.65, the POC the night built, and that’s the trigger. The read stays short while it’s under 100.97, Wednesday’s low, because the night sold through that low and built its value down here instead of bouncing off it. Take 100.97 back and 101.26, Wednesday’s value low, is the gate, then 101.50, this week’s and September’s POC on the same print. Clear 101.61, the top of the night’s value, and 102.43 to 102.47, Wednesday’s POC and the overnight high, is the ceiling. Lose 100.33 and 100.05, last week’s POC, is the last thing on the 100 handle, and under 100 the map is thin to 95.70, last week’s VAL.

GC:

The trigger is 4363.70, the overnight VAH, and gold is chopping right on it with Wednesday’s 4364.50 low sitting on top. Holding over that pair keeps the bounce off September’s low alive, but 4375.40 to 4388.20 is four value lows and Wednesday’s close stacked on each other, and the 4379.70 overnight high already stalled in there. Take 4388.20 back and 4398.70, Wednesday’s value high, is next, then 4405, where last week’s POC sits on Wednesday’s high. Lose 4363.70 and 4333, last week’s low, is the first shelf with 4325, the night’s POC, right under it. Under 4293, this week’s and September’s low, the map is blank to 4079.20, August’s low.

The White Van Stuff

The overnight ran ES and NQ right up into the top of what the options priced for today, ES on 7689 and NQ under 29620.25, so the room the book gave the upside is mostly spent before the bell. Crude is already over its band and gold is pinned on the upper edge of its, so all four are trading at the edge of the book instead of the middle of it.

ES: ES is stuck under 7689 to 7690, the top of today’s band with today’s pivot on the same spot, and 7700, the magnet, is right behind them. The nearest floor is 7675, and the band runs down to 7555 with 7600 and 7575 stacked as interest on the way.

NQ: NQ ran through 29500, the cap, overnight and is sitting under 29600, today’s cap, with the top of the band at 29620.25 right over it. Today’s pivot is back at 29460 with 29410, the magnet, under it, so everything the book has is below price.

CL: Crude is already over 100.53, today’s expected high, with 100, today’s cap, and 99.75, today’s pivot, right under it. Above price there’s nothing until 102.50 and 103, and the band runs down to 94.07.

GC: Gold is sitting on 4365.40, today’s expected high, with 4365 on the same number. Today’s pivot at 4400 and the 4390 magnet both sit above where the band ends, and the nearest floor is 4325.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Tape

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The Tape

ES is 7690.25, sitting on 7688.75, the floor of August’s value, after the night ran 7701 and handed back 36 points. Monday’s session was a quiet rotation between 7595 and 7639, and the overnight gap through that range has already been half-filled. The 7695.50 to 7701 shelf, the overnight ceiling and high, is the gate, and 7665, the print the night built on, is the first catch under price. Hold 7688.75 and the map opens to 7721, September’s ceiling, then 7728.50, last week’s high. Lose it and 7675.75, last week’s ceiling, is the first work, then 7665.

NQ is 29438.25, a few points under 29450, the print last week settled on, after running 29495.25 overnight and fading 57 points. Monday was a trend-up day that closed 29162.50 on a 29000 POC, and the overnight has taken that whole range back in one move. The 29460 to 29488 stack, the overnight POC and ceiling, is the wall, and 29350, where the overnight and last week’s value both bottomed, is the floor. Take 29460 and 29495.25 is the gate, then 29510.20, September’s ceiling. Lose 29350 and 29254.80, August’s value floor, is the only shelf before 29231.

CL is 101.67, back under the 101.91 low it made Monday, after the overnight dipped 101.21 and recovered to 103.30 before fading again. Crude has gone from 86 to 104 in six sessions and is now testing the bottom of its own overnight value, which is the first real crack in the move. The 102.27 to 102.89 shelf, the overnight value floor and Monday’s value low, is the line that decides the day. Hold it and 103.30, the overnight print, is the gate, then 103.88, Monday’s POC. Lose 102.27 and 101.21, the overnight low, is the trigger, then 100.05, last week’s POC.

GC is 4314, inside the value it built overnight after Monday’s session sold to 4293.30 and closed 4329.20 on a 4316.60 POC. Gold has been walked down from 4488.80 last week to 4293 in four sessions, and the overnight’s 4301.60 low is the line that holds the whole move together. The 4318.80 to 4324.80 shelf, the overnight value floor and Monday’s ceiling, is the first work. Take it and 4330, where Monday opened and the night printed, is the gate, then 4339.40, Monday’s high. Lose 4304.60 and 4301.60 is the trigger, then 4293.30, Monday’s low, with nothing structural until 4074.

The Calendar

Tuesday, September 15 (all times CT):

- 7:30 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep)

- 12:00 20-Year Bond Auction (Aug)

- 3:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (Sep 11)

The Plan

ES:

ES is on 7688.75, the floor of August’s value, and the decision is whether the overnight gap holds or fills. Take 7695.50, the overnight ceiling, and 7701, the high, is the first work, then 7721, September’s ceiling, and 7728.50, last week’s high, with 7775, the POC August built, above them. Clear that and 7798.75, August’s ceiling, opens 7838.50, the month’s high. Lose 7688.75 and 7675.75, last week’s ceiling, catches first, then 7665, the overnight print, and 7660.50, the floor of the night’s value. Under that pair 7645, the overnight low, is the last shelf before 7644, September’s POC, and 7639, Monday’s high, with 7632.50, Monday’s close, under it.

NQ:

NQ is under 29450, the print last week settled on, and the gap up has already been half-filled. Take 29460, the overnight POC, and 29488, the overnight ceiling, is the first work, then 29495.25, the high, and 29510.20, September’s ceiling, with 29600, the POC August built, above them. Clear that and 29646, last week’s ceiling, opens 29764.80, the high, then 29931.50, August’s ceiling. Lose 29350, where the overnight and last week’s value both bottomed, and 29254.80, August’s value floor, catches, then 29231, the overnight low, and 29208.50, Monday’s high. Under that pair 29162.50, Monday’s close, is the last shelf before 29150, September’s POC, and 29090, Monday’s ceiling.

CL:

Crude is testing the bottom of its own overnight value at 102.27 after a six-session rip from 86 to 104, and this is the first real crack in the move. Hold 102.27 and 102.89, Monday’s value low, is the first work, then 103.30, the overnight print, and 103.72, the overnight ceiling, with 103.88, Monday’s POC, above them. Clear that and 104.21, Monday’s open and the overnight high, is the gate, then 104.46, Monday’s ceiling and last week’s high, with 104.95, September’s high, over it. Lose 102.27 and 101.21, the overnight low, is the trigger, then 100.05, last week’s POC, and 99.82, September’s ceiling. Under that pair 94.50, last week’s value floor, is the last shelf before 90.87, last week’s low.

GC:

Gold is inside the value it built overnight, a few dollars over 4318.80, after four straight sessions of selling from 4488.80 to 4293.30. Take 4318.80 and 4324.80, Monday’s ceiling, is the first work, then 4330, where Monday opened and the night printed, and 4333, last week’s low, with 4339.40, Monday’s high, above them. Clear that and 4353, the overnight ceiling, is the gate, then 4358.20, the high, with 4369.20, September’s value floor, over it. Lose 4304.60, Monday’s value floor, and 4301.60, the overnight low, is the trigger, then 4293.30, Monday’s low. Under that pair the map is blank to 4074, August’s low.

The White Van Stuff

Both index books have their floors right under the overnight lows, ES at 7625 and NQ at 29250, so the gap-up fade ran into real interest and stopped. Crude’s book is the tightest of the four, with the floor for the day at 100 and the pivot at 102.25, both inside the range it’s been trading. Gold’s book has nothing close to price except the 4300 and 4325 marks it’s sitting between.

ES: ES is under 7700, the nearest interest over price, and over 7675, the nearest under it, with 7715 the pivot and 7750 the magnet stacked above. 7800 is the same-day lid and 7500 the floor for the day. Price is 7690.25, between the 7675 and the 7700.

NQ: NQ is under 29475, the pivot and magnet stacked, and over 29400, the nearest interest under price, with 29500 the cap and 29600 the same-day lid above. 29000 is the put floor and 29134.75 the bottom of the band. Price is 29438.25, under the 29475 and over the 29400.

CL: Crude is under 102, the nearest interest over price, and over 101.50, the nearest under it, with 102.25 the pivot and 103 the same-day lid above. 100 is the put floor and cap and 98.14 the bottom of the band. Price is 101.67, between the 101.50 and the 102.

GC: Gold’s book has the pivot at 4400 and the put floor at 4350, both a long way over price, with the 4300 and 4325 marks the only things close. 4475 is the same-day lid and 4275.50 the bottom of the band. Price is 4314, between the 4300 and the 4325.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Tape

ES is 7673 on the December contract, under the 7677 print the night built and under 7699 where last week’s value began. The night opened 7680, ran 7701.25 into that broken value floor, and rolled straight back off it, so the only bounce this tape produced died on the level it lost. Friday’s entire session sits overhead from 7720.75 up, and 7730.25 is Friday’s print and last week’s on the same price, which is the number that actually matters if this thing turns. Take 7682.75 back and 7699 into 7701.25 is the gate, then 7720.75, the base of Friday’s session. Lose 7664.50 and 7661.25 the night’s low catches, then 7650.75, last week’s low, with nothing under it.

NQ is 29164.75 and it is the only one of the four trading under last week’s whole range, which is what the AI headlines were worth. The night opened 29381, never held a single push, and left its value floor at 29119.50 with the 29107.25 low under it. 29352.50 was last week’s floor and it is a ceiling now, so a bounce that stalls into it is sellers reloading where they already won. Take 29308.25 back and 29352.50 is the line that changes the read, with 29405 the night’s high behind it. Lose 29107.25 and the map is empty underneath, because December has not traded down there yet.

CL is 103.89 after running 104.95 in the dark, the first trade this contract has printed over last week’s 104.46 ceiling. The pit has held 103.84 to 104.55 since it opened, which is a market holding a gap rather than giving it back. Everything underneath is Friday’s work from 100.77 down to 100.08 and none of it has been touched since the weekend. Hold 103.54 and 104.46 into 104.55 is the gate, and over 104.95 there is no profile left at all. Lose 103.20 and 102.25 catches, the night’s open and its value floor on one price, then 101.59 the low.

GC is 4308 and it has already been to 4293 since the pit opened, which took out Friday’s low and last week’s on the same trip. Those two sit at 4332.70 and 4333, thirty cents apart, and gold held above them all night before losing the pair in the first ten minutes of the session. That shelf is the reclaim line now, and nothing about this chart gets interesting again until it trades back over it. Take 4327 back and 4330.60 the pit high comes first, then the 4332.70 to 4333 shelf with 4347.50 the session anchor over it. Lose 4293 and there is nothing structural until 4074, where August bottomed.

The Calendar

Monday, September 14 (all times CT):

- 10:30 Three and six month bill auctions

Light day, nothing on the tape that reaches the open. The rate decision Wednesday is the thing that overrides every read this week.

The Plan

ES:

7699 is last week’s value floor and ES lost it over the weekend, which makes it the whole trade on the long side. The night already ran 7701.25 and got rejected there, so a second attempt that stalls in the same place is the short, not the reclaim. Accept over that pair and 7720.75 where Friday bottomed opens 7726 and 7730.25, Friday’s print sitting on last week’s, the one price two different sessions agreed on. Under 7664.50 the read is short and 7661.25 the night’s low is the trigger, with 7650.75 last week’s low the only thing behind it. Below 7650.75 December has no profile at all.

NQ:

NQ has to take 29352.50 back, last week’s floor, before there is a long side to talk about, and it trades well under it. Clear that and 29405 the night’s high is next, then the gap is properly closed at 29626 where Friday bottomed. What argues against pressing it here is that 29119.50 and 29107.25 have already held once in the dark, so the low is not free. Lose 29107.25 and the next real volume this contract has built is 29677.75 in the other direction, which is another way of saying there is nothing below and the trade becomes a momentum trade, not a level trade.

CL:

Crude is the only one of the four with its structure underneath it instead of overhead, and 103.20 is the print the night built its whole value on. Hold that and 104.46 into 104.55 is the gate, last week’s ceiling with this morning’s pit high stacked on it, and over 104.95 the chart is in open air. The honest counter is that the pit has not been able to take 104.55 out in forty minutes of trying, so the buying is holding the gap rather than extending it. Lose 103.20 and 102.25 catches, where the night opened and built its value low, then 101.59 the overnight low. Under that the whole weekend gap fills back to 100.77 and 100.08, Friday’s high and its print.

GC:

Gold lost 4332.70 and 4333, Friday’s low and last week’s on the same shelf, in the first ten minutes the pit was open and has not been back. That pair is the entire reclaim case and 4327 the session print is the first thing in the way of it. Three weeks of selling with no bounce that held anything means the burden is on the buyers, and they have not shown up at a single level yet. Take 4327 and the 4332.70 to 4333 shelf and 4347.50, where the session has done its business, is the first real work, with 4364.70 August’s value floor over it. Lose 4293 and the next price this chart has any volume at is 4074.

The White Van Stuff

Three of the four traded out the bottom of their own books overnight and crude traded out the top of its. NQ is the extreme, under every single mark in its ladder with nothing but the 29000 floor left underneath it, and gold spent the pit hour below the bottom of the range it was supposed to hold all day. ES is sitting on its expected low to the tick, which is the only one of the four where the book and the tape still agree.

ES: ES is under 7675, the nearest mark over price, and sitting right on 7667.58, the bottom of the range the book gives it today. Everything that matters is overhead, with today’s cap at 7820 and the pivot up at 7740. Under price there is 7650 and then nothing until 7500. Price is 7673, on the expected low.

NQ: NQ has traded under every mark in this book, including 29342.65, which was supposed to be the low end of today’s range and is now overhead with everything else. Even 29300, where the book expects the day to turn, is overhead. The only thing underneath is the 29000 floor. Price is 29164.75, under the whole ladder.

CL: Crude cleared 100, the cap this book has carried for weeks, and has not looked at it since. It is pressing 103.93, the top of the range it was given for the day, with 105 the same-day lid over that. What the book called the turn price, 94.75, is a place crude left last week. Price is 103.89, under the 103.93.

GC: Gold is under 4327.11, the low end of the range the book gave it, and sitting on 4300, the floor for the day. Where the book wants this to settle, 4425 and 4450, is where gold traded last week and not since. Under 4300 there is 4280 and 4275 and then a very long way to 3900. Price is 4308, on the 4300 floor.

Leave the gun, take the cannoli.

If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick