The Tape

ES put in a quiet rotation Wednesday closing 7540 on POC with value 7529 to 7543, the tightest session of the week. Globex tagged 7557 testing the 7570 week high, then sold through yest VAL and yest low into 7505 fresh and bid back to 7521. Sits below yesterday value and below today POC 7530, with 7515 yest low / week low the gate. Holding 7515 reclaims 7529 yest VAL, 7530 today POC and 7540 yest POC then 7543 yest VAH and 7557 overnight high before 7570 week high caps. Losing 7506 fails into air down to 7448 prev week VAH, 7425 prev week POC and 7338 May VAL with 7160 April POC the deeper destination.

NQ ripped Wednesday into 30192 fresh, the same week high from Tuesday, then closed back under the 30000 line at 30047 to fail the breakout. Globex sold from 30136 down to 29763 fresh and sits at 29919 under yest VAL 29938 just over yest low 29877. The 30000 line that broke yesterday is the cap now, with 29938 yest VAL the line to reclaim back into value. Holding 29877 reclaims 29938 yest VAL, 30000 cap, 30050 yest POC then 30065 yest VAH and 30136 today high before 30192 yest high / week high. Losing 29826 week low fails 29748 prev week high to 29377 prev week VAH and 29240 prev week POC + month POC stack with 28663 prev week low / month low underneath.

CL bid back hard from the wreckage. Wednesday RTH ran 91.20 then dumped 88.48 fresh and closed 89.44 the low side, then Globex flipped and ran 92.52 fresh, parking 91.51 just over the 91 today POC. Sits above today value right at the 91.75 magnet, well off the week low and back inside the 89-92 broken zone. Holding 91 extends 91.99 today expected hi, 92.52 overnight high and 92.25 April VAH then the broken 93.90 week POC and 94.69 week VAH are the reclaim path. Losing 91 fails 90.10 today VAL, 89.95 week VAL, 89.11 overnight low then 88.48 yest low / week low gates 87.13 May low and 85 April POC where the real volume sits.

GC fell out of the bottom again overnight with no recent floor underneath. Wednesday RTH ran 4398 to 4463 and bid back to close 4449 the POC, then Globex tagged 4466 fresh before dumping 4363 the fresh low and sitting 4380 now. Sits below the whole month’s value with the prev week low at 4467 overhead, the broken zone runs from 4421 yest VAL up through 4448 yest POC and 4463 yest high. Holding 4368 reclaims 4391 today VAH, 4400 round, 4421 yest VAL through 4448 yest POC up to 4463 yest high then 4467 prev week low / month low and 4488 prev week VAL into 4506 prev week POC + week POC. Losing 4363 today low opens air with nothing recent underneath until 4300 round and 4250 the next shelf, the long crowd from prev month POC 4812 still bleeding out.

The Calendar

- 7:55 AM CT, Fed Williams Speech

- 9:00 AM CT, New Home Sales (April)

- 11:00 AM CT, EIA Crude Oil Inventory (delayed from Wed by Memorial Day)

- 12:00 PM CT, 7-Year Note Auction

- 3:30 PM CT, Fed Balance Sheet

The Plan

ES:

7515 yest low / week low is the gate, where ES sits with overnight already through it once at 7505. Holding 7515 the reclaim works 7529 yest VAL, 7530 today POC and 7540 yest POC then 7543 yest VAH and 7557 overnight high before 7570 week high is the cap. Losing 7506 overnight low fails and it is air down to 7448 prev week VAH, 7425 prev week POC where the real shelf sits. Past 7425 the slide continues to 7369 prev week VAL and 7338 May VAL with 7160 April POC the deeper destination.

NQ:

30000 is the line that flipped, the round NQ broke and lost the same session yesterday before Globex sold into 29763 fresh. Holding 29877 yest low reclaims 29938 yest VAL, 29998 overnight high then 30050 yest POC and 30065 yest VAH before 30000 caps from above and 30192 yest high / week high is the upper destination. Losing 29826 week low fails 29748 prev week high to 29704 month VAH and 29377 prev week VAH into 29240 prev week POC + month POC where the real shelf sits. Past 29240 air opens 28842 prev week VAL and 28663 prev week low / month low with 27400 April POC.

CL:

91 today POC is the coil where CL bid back after Wednesday’s flush took 88.48 fresh and Globex flipped to run 92.52 overnight. Holding 91 extends to 91.51 last, 91.99 today expected hi, 92.52 overnight high and 92.25 April VAH then the broken 93.90 week POC and 94.69 week VAH are the reclaim path, with 95.79 prev week VAL the bigger line to win back. Losing 91 fails 90.10 today VAL, 89.95 week VAL, 89.11 overnight low then 88.48 yest low / week low gates the deeper test. Past 88.48 air opens 87.13 May low and 85 April POC where crude built its base.

GC:

4400 round is the lid where Globex tagged 4466 fresh before falling out of the bottom for the second session in a row. Holding 4368 overnight low reclaims 4391 today VAH, 4400 round, 4421 yest VAL, 4448 yest POC and 4463 yest high then 4467 prev week low / month low and 4488 prev week VAL into 4506 prev week POC + week POC where the real shelf sits. Losing 4363 today low opens air with nothing recent underneath, the slide continues to 4300 round and 4250 the next shelf, with 4522 April low now broken from above as the level the long crowd from prev month POC 4812 was supposed to defend.

The White Van Stuff

The positioning cage repriced overnight as NQ closed back under the cap it cleared yesterday and gold broke every floor in the structure. Same-day put floors flipped overhead on both indices, and gold sits below the implied lo with the whole positioning surface stacked above. Crude vol stays bid hard at 59 with the 89.50 cap-flipped support sitting just under price.

ES sits at 7521 under today’s put floor 7540 with the same-day cap stacked at 7580 stacked with the structural cap. The 7495 magnet sits as the nearby below pull and the 7478 today expected lo is the band edge underneath. Put floor flipped to overhead resistance is the read.

NQ sits right at the 29930 today’s pivot and 29940 magnet stack after closing back under the 30000 cap yesterday. The cap-flipped read is exactly the setup that broke gold overnight. Today’s put floor 29700 sits as the lower edge with 29662 today expected lo just under it.

CL sits 91.51 right at the 91.75 magnet after bidding back through the 89.50 cap that flipped to support underneath. Vol stays bid hard at 59 with the whole upper cage stacked overhead and the 105 structural cap well out of reach. Today expected hi 91.99 is the first line above price.

GC broke every floor in the structure and the whole positioning surface is overhead. The 4427 today’s put floor, 4441 today’s pivot, 4466 structural floor and 4516 today’s cap + magnet stack all flipped to resistance. Downside is thin air below the overnight low.

Don’t get stuck trying to trade a slow tape all day. Look outside.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES put in a quiet rotation Tuesday, 7517 to 7555 with the POC at 7536 and a close at 7539, value barely budging all session. Overnight ground up to 7566 and eased back onto 7544 the developing POC, where price sits now just under the 7570 week high. Holding 7544 keeps the grind pointed at 7556 the VAH and 7566 the overnight high, with 7600 the round in clean air above. Lose 7531 today VAL and 7517 the Tuesday low is the gate, and under that it is a long step down to 7448 prev week VAH and 7425 prev week POC.

NQ is the leader and it broke Tuesday’s high overnight. Tuesday was a trend-up close at 30079 on the 30000 POC, then Globex pushed a fresh high at 30297 and finally cleared the 30000 round that capped the whole prior week. Price sits 30261 holding the breakout, with 30100 the developing POC underneath. Above 30200 the upside is the 30297 overnight high and then air. Below 30000 fails and it is a different tape, 29826 the Tuesday low first then the gap down to 29377 prev week VAH and 29240 prev week POC.

CL held its ground Tuesday between 92.53 and 94.70 on a 93.90 POC and a 93.53 close, then got hit overnight. Globex opened 91.95 and dumped 89.64 fresh before bidding back to 90.62, parking just over the 90.32 developing POC. This is fresh range under everything from last week, with prev week VAL up at 95.79 now a memory. Holding 90.32 the reclaim runs 91.83 the VAH, back through 92.87 week VAL into 93.90 week POC. Losing 89.64 opens 87.13 the May low and 85 the April POC underneath.

GC fell out of the bottom overnight. Tuesday held 4480 to 4532 on a 4506 POC and a 4508 close, then Globex sold it from 4508 down to 4421 fresh, now 4431 sitting below Tuesday’s whole range and below the 4467 prev week low. Price is pinned under the 4440 developing POC at fresh monthly lows. Holding 4421 the reclaim works 4450 the VAH up to 4467 the prev week low into 4506 Tuesday POC. Losing 4421 opens 4400 the round with air underneath.

The Calendar

- 9:00 AM CT, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)

- 9:30 AM CT, Dallas Fed Services Index (May)

- 2:55 PM CT, Fed’s Cook speaks

- 3:30 PM CT, API Crude Oil Stock Change (after the cash close)

The Plan

ES:

7544 is the coil, today’s POC where the overnight grind parked and the tape has been pinned. Above 7544 we work 7556 the VAH into 7566 the overnight high, and a push through 7570 the week high opens 7600 the round in clean air. Below 7544 fails and 7537 the overnight low goes first, then 7531 today VAL and 7517 the Tuesday low where the week bottomed. Lose 7517 and there is air down to 7448 prev week VAH and 7425 prev week POC, the real shelf, with 7338 the May VAL and 7160 the April POC the deeper destinations underneath. Quiet data day, so this is a structure tape until a Fed speaker says something.

NQ:

30000 is the line now, the round that capped the prior week and finally gave way overnight, with Tuesday’s POC stacked right on it. Above 30100 today POC holds and we target 30200 then 30297 the overnight high, and through there it is fresh air. Below 30000 fails and it turns into a different tape, 29826 the Tuesday low first, then the gap down to 29377 prev week VAH and 29240 prev week POC, with 27400 the April POC the deeper destination where the real volume sits. The 30000 hold-or-lose is the whole NQ read into the open. Don’t get cute fading a fresh high without a rejection first.

CL:

90.32 is the developing POC, where the overnight flush found a floor after price fell out of last week’s entire range. Above 90.32 the reclaim runs 91.83 the VAH, up through 92.87 week VAL into 93.90 week POC and Tuesday’s value up top. Below 89.64 the overnight low fails and it opens 87.13 the May low, then 85 the April POC where crude built its base. This is fresh range under everything, the 95 area is in the rearview now. Crude inventory after the close is the next catalyst.

GC:

4440 is the lid gold is pinned under after falling out of the bottom overnight, below the prev week low and below the whole month’s value. Above 4440 the reclaim works 4450 the VAH and 4467 the prev week low and month low together, with 4506 Tuesday POC the bigger line to win back. Below 4421 the overnight low fails and 4400 the round is next with air underneath, gold is at fresh monthly lows with nothing recent below it. The long crowd from up near the April highs is the supply on every bounce.

The White Van Stuff

Positioning up top stays call-heavy and net long into record highs, NQ punching clean through the 30000 line it could not clear all of last week. Crude vol is screaming with the whole expected band collapsing as price falls through the floor of it. Gold lost its floor and flipped negative overnight, which is exactly why the slide kept going once it started.

ES sits 7548 inside the band, well under the 7580 cap with the structural cap stacked at 7600 over it. Net positioning stays positive, nothing forcing a move either way.

NQ cleared the 30000 cap overnight and it flips to the floor underneath, the line that defines the breakout now. Everything above is thin into the expected hi at 30470.

CL sits right at the implied low after the flush, with vol bid hard and the whole cage stacked overhead. The 92 pivot is the first thing to reclaim, the 95.50 cap is well out of reach for now.

GC broke below its floor and the bottom of the expected range together, so the whole structure is overhead now and the downside is thin air. Negative positioning means bounces get sold and breaks get amplified.

Trust your prep. Trade your levels. Go get some vitamin D.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES rotated higher Friday closing 7499.50 with POC at 7494 and value 7488 to 7509, the steady afternoon bid that took the tape from 7469 the open low back to 7516 the high before easing into the long weekend. Globex gap-up opened 7561, ran 7566 fresh and parked 7540 right at the round with today’s POC stacked. Holding 7540 the upside extends 7545 the VAH then 7566 overnight high into 7600 the round. Losing 7540 fails 7532 today VAL, 7525 overnight low and 7516 Friday high gates 7509 Friday VAH and 7499 Friday close into 7494 Friday POC and 7488 Friday VAL. CB Consumer Confidence 9am is the morning override.

NQ ripped Friday closing 29647.25 on POC 29563 with value 29545 to 29655, the bid session that ran 29716 the high off 29438 the morning low. Globex gap-up opened 29962, tagged 29977 fresh just under 30000, and parked 29868 right above the 29818 POC. Holding 29818 the upside extends 29882 the VAH plus 29977 overnight high into 30000 the round. Losing 29818 fails 29791 today VAL, 29744 overnight low, 29716 Friday high gates 29654 Friday VAH and 29647 Friday close into 29563 Friday POC and 29545 Friday VAL. The fresh test of 30000 overnight is the read into the open.

CL rotated lower Friday on CLN26 closing 97.57 with POC at 97.52 and value 96.50 to 98.93 after running 99.44 the high and 95.45 the low. Globex gap-down opened 91.00 from 97.57 Friday close, dumped 90.35 fresh and bid back to 92.85 inside today’s value at 92.60 POC. Below the 95.45 prev week low gate broke entirely overnight and CLN26 parked in fresh range with the 88.75 structural base now the lower destination. Holding 92.85 the upside extends 92.95 the VAH plus 93.63 overnight high then the broken 95.45 line is the level to reclaim. Losing 92.85 fails 92.60 today POC, 91.51 today VAL, 90.35 overnight low opens the deeper test.

GC rotated down Friday closing 4501.40 with POC at 4519.70 and value 4512 to 4536, the failure session off 4537.80 the high into 4489.90 the low. Globex gap-up opened 4571.60, ran 4583.30 fresh, then dumped back to 4503.40 the low and parked 4510 right at today VAL. Holding 4510 the upside extends 4519 Friday POC and 4532 today POC into 4541 today VAH plus 4583 overnight high. Losing 4510 fails 4503 overnight low, 4500 the round and 4489 Friday low gates 4481 prev week VAL and 4467 prev week low. The full overnight reversal back to today VAL is the read.

The Calendar

- 8:00 AM CT, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, FHFA House Price Index (March)

- 9:00 AM CT, CB Consumer Confidence (May)

- 9:30 AM CT, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)

- 10:30 AM CT, 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auctions

- 12:00 PM CT, 2-Year Note Auction

The Plan

ES:

7540 the round where Globex parked at POC after the gap-up from 7499 Friday close. Holding 7540 we target 7545 today VAH then 7566 overnight high into 7600 the round opens fresh structure above. Losing 7540 fails 7532 today VAL, 7525 overnight low and 7516 Friday high gates 7509 Friday VAH and 7499 Friday close. Past 7499 air opens to 7494 Friday POC, 7488 Friday VAL and 7469 Friday low then 7420 prev week POC into 7381 prev week VAL and 7160 April POC the deeper destination. CB Consumer Confidence 9am picks the side.

NQ:

29818 today POC where Globex parked after the gap-up to 29977 fresh just under 30000. Holding 29818 we target 29882 today VAH then 29977 overnight high into 30000 opens fresh structure. Losing 29818 fails 29791 today VAL, 29744 overnight low, 29716 Friday high gates 29654 Friday VAH and 29647 Friday close into 29563 Friday POC. Past 29438 Friday low the cascade opens to 29218 prev week POC, 28663 prev week low / May low and 27400 April POC the deeper destination. Same 9am Consumer Confidence override.

CL:

92.60 today POC where CLN26 parked after the gap-down from 97.57 Friday close took price through the 95.45 prev week low entirely. Holding 92.60 we target 92.85 last, 92.95 today VAH then 93.63 overnight high then the broken 95.45 line is the level to reclaim. Past the 95.45 line the recovery opens 96.50 Friday VAL, 97.52 Friday POC and 97.57 Friday close into 98.62 prev week VAL and 98.93 Friday VAH. Losing 92.60 fails 91.51 today VAL, 90.35 overnight low then 88.75 the structural base zone opens up. Crude is fresh range below all of last week’s structure and the 95 reclaim is the question.

GC:

4510 right at today VAL where Globex came back through after the 4583 fresh high faded to 4503 the low. Holding 4510 we target 4511 today VAL stack with 4519 Friday POC into 4532 today POC, 4537 Friday high and 4541 today VAH then 4583 overnight high reopens the upside. Losing 4510 fails 4503 overnight low, 4500 the round and 4489 Friday low gates 4481 prev week VAL and 4467 prev week low. Past 4467 air opens 4400 the round and 4388 April low the deeper destination where the long crowd from up high finally folds. Same 9am Consumer Confidence override on the dollar move.

The White Van Stuff

Equities ripped, crude got carried out, gold tagged the structural cap and came back, the whole positioning cage repriced overnight. Net positioning stays positive on equities into Consumer Confidence with implied bands ES ±0.89% and NQ ±1.31%, while crude vol stays bid hard at IV 81 against an asymmetric 91.69 to 101.51 band that price already broke from below. Gold sits right at the 4510 same-day cap stack.

ES sits 7540 with the implied band already broken overnight and well over today’s pivot at 7405. Same-day cap 7590 stacks with 7600 the structural cap stacked over it. Net positioning stays positive into the morning data.

NQ punched through 29500 the same-day cap entirely overnight, the line that capped the whole prev week. The 29500 flipped to support sits well underneath as the gate. The 30000 structural cap is the only level left.

CL sits 92.85 inside the lower half of the band after the gap-down took out the 95 gate. The 100 today’s cap is now flipped resistance well overhead and the 88.75 magnet sits as the lower magnet. Vol bid hard at IV 81 into the morning data.

GC sits 4510 right at the 4510 same-day cap stack after the 4583 overnight rip faded back. The 4580 magnet sits as the next layer overhead and 4450 today’s put floor sits as the lower edge. Net positioning is short into the morning data.

Be Safe and have fun.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES put in a P-shape trend up Thursday closing 7465 on POC with value 7425 to 7478, the session that snapped the week back to the highs. Globex gap-up opened above 7486 yest high, tagged 7500 the round and got slapped back, parking 7478 at yest VAH after the fade. Holding 7478 the upside extends 7486 yest high / week high then 7500 round again into 7530 expected high and 7540 prev week high in clean air. Losing 7478 fails 7469 overnight low, 7465 yest POC, 7446 week VAH and 7425 yest VAL then 7408 yest low opens 7391, 7363 prev wk low and 7160 April POC the deeper destination. The 7478 line and 7500 round are the read into the long weekend.

NQ ripped Thursday opening 29217 and running 29553 closing 29445 with POC at 29225 and value 29138 to 29392, a trend up day with the bid all session. Globex gap-up opened above the close at 29592, ran a fresh 29665 high above the cap at 29330, and faded back inside yest value parking 29499 above the 29240 pivot. Holding 29445 the upside extends 29553 yest high / week high, 29570 prev wk VAH and 29665 overnight high into 29782 prev wk high and 29818 expected hi. Losing 29445 fails 29436 overnight low, 29426 prev wk POC, 29392 yest VAH and 29377 week VAH then 29330 the flipped cap and 29240 the pivot open 29127 yest low, 28663 week low / month low and 27622 prev month high.

CL got destroyed Thursday on CLN26 opening 101.09 and dumping to 95.76 closing 97.32 with POC at 98 and value 95.80 to 100.86, the trend down day that finally took 100 off the table. Globex opened 97.34, bid back to 99.43 on the overnight Iran headline, then faded right back to 97.45 at yest POC. Holding 97 reclaimed leads 98 yest POC and 99.43 overnight high then 100 the line and 100.86 yest VAH into 101.54 prev month high, with 102.64 yest high, 102.84 week VAH and 105.21 week high above. Losing 97 fails 96.66 week VAL, 95.80 yest VAL and 95.76 yest low / week low gate 94.50 the pivot then 93.21 prev wk VAL, 92.83 prev wk low and 88.75 the long-term magnet open. 100 is still the line either way.

GC put in a rotation up Thursday opening 4513 and running 4561 closing 4544 with POC at 4510 and value 4489 to 4532, the bid session that took gold back through the 4513 floor retest. Globex opened 4528, ran 4537 and faded back to 4521 parking right on the 4522 April low and 4513 the floor Thursday ate through. Holding 4521 extends 4532 yest VAH, 4544 yest close, 4547 week VAH and 4550 the pivot into 4561 yest high, 4570 today’s cap, 4588 week high and 4596 expected hi. Losing 4521 fails 4517 today VAL, 4510 yest POC, 4508 overnight low and 4500 round then 4489 yest VAL and 4488 yest low open 4467 week low / month low and 4388 April low. Sitting right on the April low into the 3-day weekend.

The Calendar

- 9:00 AM CT, UMich Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan Inflation Expectations Final, CB Leading Index April

- 2:00 PM CT, Fed Waller Speech

- 4:00 PM CT, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

UMich Final at 9 is the only data print before the bell. Waller at 2pm into the close. Then a 3-day weekend.

The Plan

ES:

7478 yest VAH, the line Globex parked at after the 7500 round tag and fade. Holding 7478 we extend to 7486 yest high / week high, then 7500 the round again into 7540 prev week high in clean air. Losing 7478 fails 7469 overnight low, 7465 yest POC / close, 7446 week VAH and 7425 yest VAL then 7408 yest low gates the deeper slide. Past 7408 air opens 7391 prev wk VAL, 7382 week VAL, 7363 prev wk low and 7354 week low to 7327 May VAL with 7160 April POC the destination far below.

NQ:

29445 yest close, where Globex faded back after the gap up and 29665 fresh high overnight. Holding 29445 the upside extends to 29553 yest high / week high, then 29570 prev wk VAH and 29665 overnight high into 29782 prev wk high in clean air. Losing 29445 fails 29436 overnight low, 29426 prev wk POC, 29392 yest VAH and 29377 week VAH then 29240 the pivot / week POC gates the slide. Below 29240 air opens 29225 yest POC, 29138 yest VAL, 29127 yest low into 28954 week VAL, 28663 week low / month low and 27622 prev month high the deeper magnet. The fresh break with new highs overnight is the read.

CL:

98 yest POC, the line Globex built value at after Thursday’s destruction took 100 off the table. Holding 98 we extend to 98.96 overnight VAH, 99.43 overnight high, 100 the round and 100.86 yest VAH into 101.54 prev month high, then 102.64 yest high, 102.84 week VAH and 105.21 week high above. Losing 98 fails 97.80 overnight VAL, 97.16 overnight low then 96.66 week VAL and 95.80 yest VAL gate 95.76 yest low / week low. Past 95.76 the slide continues to 93.21 prev wk VAL, 92.83 prev wk low and 88.75 the long-term magnet where the real volume sits. 100 still owns the trade.

GC:

4521 where Globex parked right on the 4522 April low and 4513 the floor Thursday took back. Holding 4521 extends to 4528 overnight open, 4532 yest VAH, 4537 overnight high then 4544 yest close, 4547 week VAH and 4548 month VAL into 4561 yest high and 4588 week high. Past 4588 the upside reopens 4664 prev wk VAL, 4688 prev wk POC and 4742 prev wk VAH the stack above. Losing 4521 fails 4517 today VAL, 4510 yest POC, 4508 overnight low then 4500 round and 4489 yest VAL gate 4488 yest low. Past 4488 air opens 4484 week VAL, 4467 week low / month low into 4388 April low where the long crowd from prev month POC 4812 finally folds.

The White Van Stuff

The positioning cage repriced overnight as NQ broke clean through the structural cap and ES tagged 7500 round before fading back. Net positioning stays positive on equities with the dealer bid still in equities and gold, and crude vol stays bid hard at IV 75 with the 92 put floor stacked well underneath. The implied bands sit ES ±0.86%, NQ ±1.27%, GC ±1.19%, and CL asymmetric 91.78 to 100.92 because Thursday’s break expanded the downside skew.

ES sits 7478 below 7480 the heavy interest shelf and 7520 today’s cap with 7500 the structural cap stacked. 7415 today’s pivot is the put line and net positioning stays positive into the bell. The 7400 today’s put floor sits as the lower edge.

NQ punched clean through 29330 the cap overnight, the line that capped through prev week. The 29500 and 29510 heavy interest layers stack right at price now as the next positioning shelf above. The 29240 pivot and 29000 put floor sit below.

CL sits 97.45 below 99.50 the overnight magnet and 100 the line, with crude vol bid hard at IV 75. The 92 today’s put floor sits well underneath as the asymmetric downside cap. Today’s cap 103 caps any reclaim attempt.

GC sits 4521 right on the 4513 recovered floor with 4525 the magnet stacked above. 4550 today’s pivot and 4570 today’s cap are the next layer up with 4600 the structural cap and 4596 expected hi as the upper edge. The 4500 today’s put floor sits below with 4488 expected lo right at yest low.

Just do your job. Then go grill.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

The Tape

ES closed Wednesday at the high with POC built late at 7451 and value compressed 7417 to 7453, the P-shape trend-up signature. The opening drive was lower, sellers tagged 7376 right at the week low layer, then the bid took over and ran the tape into the bell. Globex opened above the close, tagged 7469 fresh and faded back through 7415 overnight, parking 7427 at the line. Holding 7427 we extend to 7451 close, 7453 VAH and 7458 yest high then 7469 overnight high. Losing it opens 7417 VAL, 7415 overnight low, 7395 yest open and 7391 prev wk VAL gates 7376 yest low, 7363 prev week low and 7354 week low.

NQ closed Wednesday at the high with POC at 29321 and value 29164 to 29379, the same reversal shape as ES. The opening drive printed 29008 right at the prev wk VAL layer, then buyers stepped in and ran the tape clean into the bell. Globex parked above the close, tagged 29464 fresh and faded back through 29192, sitting 29241 under the line. Holding 29241 we extend to 29321 POC, 29379 VAH and 29395 close then 29464 overnight high. Losing it opens 29192 overnight low, 29164 VAL then 29008 yest low and 29005 prev week VAL gates 28781 week VAL, 28742 prev week low and 28663 month low.

CL cracked through 100 Wednesday closing 98.53, POC built at 98 with value 97.15 to 100.24, the trend-down day signature. Sellers pressed from the open at 101.68, the 102 layer that held through the week broke first, then 100 gave on the second test and 97 was the print before the late tape bid showed up. Globex opened 98.84, dumped one more time to 97.25 and bid back through 100, parking 100.67 just under 101.34 overnight high. Holding 100 reclaimed leads 100.24 VAH and 101.34 overnight high. Losing 100 fails 98.84 overnight open, 98 the POC, 97.25 overnight low and 96.94 yest low / week low gates 93.21 last week’s VAL, 92.83 prev week low and the 88.75 long-term magnet.

GC closed Wednesday at the high with POC at 4535 and value 4504 to 4557, the same reversal shape as equities. The opening drive ran lower into 4469 right at the prev week low layer, then the bid took the tape and gold closed on the upper end. Globex bid above the close briefly to 4544, faded to 4503 and parked 4516 inside yest value. Holding 4516 we extend to 4535 POC, 4544 overnight high, 4548 close then 4557 VAH and 4558 yest high. Losing it opens 4504 VAL, 4503 overnight low, 4500 round then 4469 yest low / week low / month low gates 4400 round and 4388 April low.

The Calendar

- 8:45 AM CT, S&P Global PMI Flash

- 9:30 AM CT, EIA Natural Gas Stocks

- 10:30 AM CT, 4-Week and 8-Week Bill Auctions

- 12:00 PM CT, 10-Year TIPS Auction

- 3:30 PM CT, Fed Balance Sheet

The Plan

ES:

7427, where Globex parked at the line after the reversal. Holding 7427 we target 7451 close, 7453 VAH and 7458 yest high then 7469 overnight high opens 7478 prev week VAH and 7540 prev week high as the upside structure. Losing 7427 fails 7417 VAL, 7415 overnight low, 7395 yest open then 7391 prev wk VAL gates 7376 yest low, 7363 prev week low and 7354 week low. Past the week low it’s clean air to 7327 May VAL, 7282 May low and 7160 April POC the deeper magnet. Jobless Claims and Philly Fed 7:30 pick the side.

NQ:

29241, where Globex parked under the line after the reversal. Holding 29241 we target 29321 POC, 29379 VAH and 29395 close then 29464 overnight high opens 29570 prev week VAH and 29782 prev week high. Losing 29241 fails 29218 week VAH, 29192 overnight low, 29164 VAL then 29008 yest low and 29005 prev week VAL gates 28781 week VAL, 28742 prev wk low and 28663 month low. Past the month low air opens to 28524 May VAL, 27622 prev month high and 27400 April POC the deeper destination. Same morning override.

CL:

100.67, the reclaim off 97.25 after Wednesday’s break of 100 took the four-week trade off the table. Holding 100 we target 100.24 yest VAH, 101.34 overnight high then 101.54 prev month high opens 102.82 yest high and 105.21 week high. Losing 100 fails 98.84 overnight open, 98 the POC, 97.25 overnight low and 96.94 yest low / week low gates 93.21 prev wk VAL and 92.83 prev week low. Past 92 it’s air to the 88.75 long-term magnet. The 100 line is the entire trade.

GC:

4516, where Globex parked inside yest value after the reversal. Holding 4516 we target 4535 POC, 4544 overnight high and 4548 close then 4557 VAH and 4558 yest high open 4664 prev week VAL as the upside cap. Losing 4516 fails 4504 VAL, 4503 overnight low, 4500 round then 4469 yest low / week low / month low gates 4388 April low. Past 4388 air opens to the deeper cascade below. The long crowd from prev month POC 4812 is still bleeding out and yields are the trade.

The White Van Stuff

The positioning cage rebuilt overnight as equities pulled back through the implied range lows and crude vol stayed bid hard. Gold’s options structure caps at 4600 with the long crowd from prev month POC still underwater. The inflation-impulse trade unwound through crude one more time.

ES sits just above today’s pivot at 7420. Same-day cap at 7530 with the structural cap at 7500. Heavy positioning piles 7475 to 7480 as the next layer.

NQ sits above today’s pivot at 29210. Same-day cap 29750 with the structural cap at 30000. Today’s put floor 28890 is the band low.

CL sits above today’s pivot at 99. Same-day cap 103 with the structural cap at 105. Asymmetric downside expected band 93.74 to 102.78 with today’s put floor 96.50 well underneath.

GC sits just above today’s pivot at 4505. Same-day cap and structural cap both at 4600 with expected hi at 4592. Today’s put floor 4490 sits underneath as the band edge.

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The Tape

ES traded 7416 to 7354 Tuesday closing 7378 on POC, the 7395 Monday gate gave and 7363 prev week low cracked. Globex bid back to 7416 and 7407 sits above 7391 yest VAH with 7385 today’s pivot stacked. Bull-case is 7385 holds into 7415 today’s cap and 7447 expected hi. Bear-case is 7385 fails and 7363 gates air to the 7327 May VAL stack and 7282 prev week VAL.

NQ got rolled 463 points 29126 to 28663 Tuesday, the 28849 Monday gate failed and 28742 prev week low cracked into a fresh month low at 28663. Globex ripped to 29169 overnight and 29130 sits ABOVE 29110 today’s cap, the line that capped the whole prev week. Bull-case is 29110 holds as flipped support into 29161 and 29250 then 29356 prev day high. Bear-case is 29110 fails back through 28983 yest VAH and 28910 today’s pivot with 28697 the gate to 28663 yest low.

CL closed 104.48 Tuesday at the high after a 2.27 range, the continuation of the multi-session rip from 99. Overnight handed back four handles fast to 100.87 and price sits 101.63 below the 102.25 put floor. Bull-case is 102.25 reclaims and 103.36 the magnet catches into 104.10 yest VAH and 105 the ceiling. Bear-case is 102 stays broken, 100 the line crude defended four weeks breaks, with 99.45 the 1D Min gating 98.94 week low.

GC destroyed Tuesday closing 4487 below 4504 POC after an 84-handle 4551 to 4467 range, the 4520 floor gave and 4513 prev week low cracked. Globex bid back to 4508 and 4500 sits below 4555 today’s pivot. Bull-case is 4500 holds into 4504-4514 then 4555 today’s pivot and 4572 expected hi. Bear-case is 4500 fails through 4485 VAL into 4470 put floor and 4450 standard floor where the April long crowd goes underwater.

The Calendar

- 6:00 AM CT, MBA Mortgage Applications (already cleared)

- 7:00 AM CT, Fed Paulson Speech

- 9:15 AM CT, Fed Barr Speech

- 9:30 AM CT, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

- 10:30 AM CT, 17-Week Bill Auction

- 12:00 PM CT, 20-Year Bond Auction

- 1:00 PM CT, FOMC Minutes

The Plan

ES:

7385, today’s pivot stacked tight with the 7391 prev day VAH and 7372 today POC where Globex came back through after Tuesday’s puke. Above 7385 holds we target 7398 today VAH, 7407 last, then 7415 today’s cap and 7416 overnight high reopen 7425 magnet level into 7447 expected hi with 7500 the structural call ceiling capping the band. Below 7385 fails and 7378 prev day POC / 7372 today POC stack gives, then 7363 prev week low gates air to 7354 yest low / week low, 7350 put floor / standard floor at the same line. Below 7350 the cascade opens 7327 May VAL, 7308 today expected lo, 7282 prev week VAL, and 7160 April POC the deeper magnet.

NQ:

29110, today’s cap and call ceiling stack where Globex broke ABOVE overnight, the line that capped the whole prev week and now sits as flipped support. Above 29110 holds we target 29130 last, 29161 today VAH stacked with 29169 overnight high, then 29250 magnet level into 29312 today expected hi into 29356 prev day high in clean air. Above 29356 the upside reopens 29426 prev week POC and the 29570 prev week VAH. Below 29110 fails back through 28983 prev day VAH, 28910 today’s pivot gives, 28800 prev day POC catches, then 28697 prev day VAL / 28700 the put floor stack gates air to 28663 yest low / month low, 28524 May VAL, 27622 prev month high, 27400 April POC the deeper staircase. The fresh break above call ceiling overnight is the read going in.

CL:

102.25, today’s put floor that already broke and now caps the bounce after the four-handle overnight reversal. Above 102.25 reclaims and 103.11 prev day VAL catches, 103.36 prev day POC stacks, 104.10 prev day VAH and 104.45 today RTH high stub lead into 104.87 yest high then 105 the standard call ceiling. Below 102.25 stays broken and the 100.87 overnight low gives, then 100 the line crude spent four weeks defending breaks, 99.45 the 1D Min and 99.08 prev week VAH stack, with 98.94 week low gating air to 92.83 the wk low and 88.75 the long-term magnet far below. EIA crude 9:30 CT lands right in the middle of this unwind.

GC:

4500, the round level Globex parked at after the puke from 4551 to 4467 tore through prev week structure. Above 4500 holds we target 4504 prev day POC, 4508 overnight high, and 4514 prev day VAH, then 4555 today’s pivot and 4572 today expected hi reopen 4600 the call ceiling. Below 4500 fails through 4485 prev day VAL, 4470 today’s put floor catches the next leg, then 4467 yest low / overnight low stack gives air to 4465 magnet level and 4450 standard floor where the April long crowd finally goes underwater. Past 4450 the cascade opens to 4400 round and the April low at 4388 in clean structure. Yields are the trade and the long crowd from prev month POC 4812 is still bleeding out.

The White Van Stuff

Yields up, dollar firm, oil vol bid hard on the CLN26 reversal, equities and gold rebuilding from below structure. The whole positioning cage flipped sides overnight as crude rolled and the inflation-impulse trade unwound. ES expected ±0.94%, NQ ±1.34%, CL is the wide one with 1D Max 108.85 and 1D Min 99.45 against a 102.25 put floor that already broke.

ES sits 7407 right under 7415 today’s cap and above today’s pivot at 7385. The 7350 put floor stacks with the 7308 today expected lo as the lower band edge.

NQ punched through 29110 today’s cap overnight, the line that capped the whole prev week. The big positioning pile sits above price now after the fresh break. The lower band gate is 28700 today’s put floor stacked with 28697 prev day VAL.

CLN26 sits below 102.25 today’s put floor after the four-handle overnight reversal. Asymmetric downside risk into EIA at 9:30, the 100 line is the question one more time and the 99.45 1D Min sits as the band low.

GC sits 4500 below 4555 today’s pivot after Tuesday’s destruction tore through prev week structure. The 4470 today’s put floor and 4467 yest low stack right at the same line as the floor that needs to hold.

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The Tape

ES put in a rotation Monday closing 7426 in the lower half of an 81-handle range 7454 to 7373, POC 7408 mid-range with value 7395 to 7431. Globex faded 7384 fresh below Monday’s POC, price into the bell sits 7392 right under the 7395 yest VAL / 7388 ON VAL stack. Bull-case is the 7395 line reclaims, 7408 Monday POC catches the rebuild, 7431 yest VAH leads 7440 overnight high and 7454 yest high reopens upside. Bear-case is 7395 stays broken and 7384 overnight low gives, 7373 yest low fails, 7363 prev wk low gates air to 7327 May VAL, 7282 prev wk VAL, 7160 April POC.

NQ got rolled Monday closing 29098 near the lows after a 541-point dump 29356 to 28814, POC 29000 with value 28849 to 29106. Globex extended through 28831 fresh below Monday’s low, price into the bell sits 28854 right at the 28849 prev day VAL gate. Bull-case is 28849 holds, 29000 Monday POC catches first, 29080 magnet stacks into 29106 yest VAH and 29125 overnight high reopen 29356 yest high. Bear-case is 28849 fails through 28831 overnight low, 28814 yest low gives, then air to 28712 expected low, 28742 prev wk low, 28523 May VAL, 27622 prev month high, 27400 April POC the deeper staircase. Sixteen straight up days unwound and Monday extended the bleed.

CL ripped through 100 and never looked back. CLN26 (post-roll, CLM expires Wednesday) traded a 6.85-handle Monday range 102.61 to 109.46 closing 106.15 with POC 107.00, then Globex parked 108.20 into the bell right under 109.46 yest high. Bull-case is 107 Monday POC holds, 108.20 extends through 109.20 overnight high and 109.31 call ceiling, then 110.35 heavy interest opens the 112.43 same-day cap into 113.62 expected high in clean structure. Bear-case is 107 fails, 106.90 overnight low cracks, 106.18 the same-day put floor catches, then 105 call ceiling flipped to support, 104.21 yest VAL gives and air opens to 103.70 expected lo, 101.02 prev wk POC, 99.62 the 1D Min. All CL numbers in this brief are CLN26.

GC rotated tight Monday closing 4562.90 above POC 4545.60 with value 4539 to 4568 inside a 4535 to 4588 range, Globex parked 4544.90 right back under yest POC. Bull-case is 4540 holds, 4545 Monday POC reclaims, 4558 overnight high goes, then 4562 yest close and 4568 yest VAH stack into 4580 magnet and 4588 yest high, then the 4600 cap takes the first leg. Bear-case is 4540 fails, 4528 overnight low cracks, 4520 the same-day floor catches, then 4513 prev wk low / 4510 month low gives and the cascade opens 4500 round and 4497 expected lo to 4450 standard floor where the April long crowd finally goes underwater.

The Calendar

- 8:00 AM CT, Fed Waller Speech

- 9:00 AM CT, Pending Home Sales (March)

- 10:30 AM CT, 6-Week Bill Auction

- 3:30 PM CT, API Crude Oil Stock Change

- 6:00 PM CT, Fed Paulson Speech

- 6:30 PM CT, Fed Venable Speech

The Plan

ES:

7395, the prev day VAL stacked tight with 7388 overnight VAL where the morning is testing. Above 7395 reclaims and we target 7408 prev day POC, 7431 prev day VAH into 7440 overnight high then 7454 prev day high. Above 7454 reopens 7478 prev week VAH and 7493 today expected hi. Below 7395 fails through 7384 overnight low into 7373 prev day low, then 7363 prev week low gates air to 7327 May VAL, 7282 prev week VAL, 7160 April POC.

NQ:

28849, prev day VAL where Globex parked the dump with 28854 last sitting one tick above the line. Above 28849 holds the gate, 29000 prev day POC catches first, 29080 magnet stacks, then 29106 Monday VAH and 29125 overnight high reopen 29356 yest high in the rebuild. Above 29356 we extend to 29426 prev wk POC and 29479 today expected hi. Below 28849 fails and 28831 overnight low gives, 28814 yest low fails, then air to 28712 expected lo and 28742 prev week low, with 28523 May VAL, 27622 prev month high, 27400 April POC the deeper staircase.

CL:

107, Monday’s POC where CLN26 is rotating after the multi-session rip. Above 107 holds and 108.20 last extends through 109.20 overnight high into 109.46 yest high stacked with 109.31 call ceiling. Above 109.46 we open 110.35 the first heavy interest into the 112.43 same-day cap and 113.62 expected high in clean structure. Below 107 fails through 106.90 overnight low into 106.18 the same-day floor catch, then 105 call ceiling flipped to support, 104.21 prev day VAL gives and the air opens to 103.70 today expected lo, 101.02 prev week POC, 99.62 the 1D Min.

GC:

4545, Monday’s POC where overnight parked with 4544 last sitting on the line. Above 4545 reclaims the magnet, 4558 overnight high goes, 4562 prev day close stacks with 4568 prev day VAH into 4580 magnet and 4588 prev day high then the 4600 cap takes the first leg. Below 4540 fails through 4528 overnight low into 4520 put floor 0DTE, then 4513 prev week low / 4510 month low gives and the cascade opens 4500 round and 4497 today expected lo into 4450 standard floor where the April long crowd finally goes underwater. Yields up, dollar firm, gold weak.

The White Van Stuff

Oil finally cleared the cage entirely and equities are paying the bill on the inflation-impulse read. CLN26 ran nine handles in three sessions and the positioning rebuilt above 100 instead of capping it. Equity implied bands shifted lower on the move, gold’s long crowd from April is still bleeding out, and the whole multi-asset cage repriced lower overnight.

ES sits 7392 below 7400 today’s pivot and the 7460 same-day cap. Implied band ±0.92% (7357 to 7493), price already below the implied low after the overnight fade.

NQ parked 28854 well below 29080 today’s pivot / magnet and the 29400 same-day cap. Band ±1.32% (28712 to 29479), price below implied low same as ES.

CLN26 finally cleared the entire weekly cage. 109.31 call ceiling above price as the structural cap, 110.35 first heavy interest leads to 112.43 today’s call cap stacked with 113.62 expected high. Today’s put floor flipped to 106.18 below price after Monday’s clean break above.

GC sits 4544 right at the 4550 today’s pivot stacked with the 4580 magnet one band above. 4600 call ceiling caps both the all-expiry and same-day. Today’s put floor at 4520 lines up with the 4513 prev week low gate.

To my friends and competition today….

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The Tape

ES put in a tight rotation Friday, closing 7432.50 on POC after a 55-handle range 7475.75 to 7420.25. Globex held tight overnight, swinging 7376 to 7433, parking 7420 right back on the Friday VAL line. Bull-case is 7420 holds stacked with month POC, the 7432 Friday POC / week POC / close cluster reclaims, and the upside opens 7455 VAH into 7475 yesterday high then 7478 prev week VAH. Bear-case is 7420 fails, 7400 overnight POC slides into the 7391 prev week VAL / 7385 overnight VAL stack, then 7363 prev week low gates air down to 7282 prev week VAL and 7160 April POC.

NQ ran a wider Friday session, closing 29231 after a 397-point range 29486 to 29089. Globex parked 29220 right under the 29218 Friday VAL. Bull-case is 29218 reclaims, 29274 overnight high goes, and the upside opens 29300 yesterday POC then 29426 prev week POC into 29486 Friday high. Bear-case is 29220 fails, 29139 overnight POC slides into 29089 Friday low, then 29005 prev week VAL stacked with 28990 overnight low opens air to 28742 prev week low and 27622 prev month high. Sixteen straight green days ended in one Globex.

CL rolled to the July contract this weekend. CLM26 (June) goes off the board Wednesday, CLN26 (July) is the new front and sits $4-5 below CLM in the carry. CLN26 closed 101.02 Friday after a tight 4-handle range 97.23 to 101.57. Sunday-night Globex opened 101.74, spiked 104.37, then puked to 98.87 and bid back to 99.07. Bull-case is 99 holds, 100 reclaims, 101.02 Friday close opens 101.57 Friday high then 104.37 the rejected Sunday spike. Bear-case is 99 fails, 98.87 overnight low cracks, 97.23 Friday low gives, then the 96.44 expected low / 96.50 put floor stack opens the deeper test. All CL numbers in this brief are CLN26.

GC finished the prev week destruction Friday, closing 4549.80 on POC 4559 after a 57-handle range 4571 to 4513. Globex parked 4558 right back at the Friday POC. Bull-case is 4558 holds, 4565 Friday VAH reclaims, 4571 Friday high opens 4595 high-vol magnet into 4615 Friday open territory. Bear-case is 4558 fails, 4533 overnight low slides into 4513 Friday low / prev week low stacked, then air to 4500 structural floor and 4450 April put floor. Yields are the trade and the long crowd from prev month POC 4812 is starting to puke.

The Calendar

- 9:00 AM CT, NAHB Housing Market Index (May)

- 10:30 AM CT, 3-Month and 6-Month Treasury Bill Auction

- 3:00 PM CT, TIC Flows (March)

Light data day. Nothing on the morning tape that overrides structure. The print risk lives Tuesday through Friday this week.

The Plan

ES:

7420, stacked on overnight last, month POC, and Friday VAL where Globex parked. Above we target the 7432 yesterday POC / week POC / close cluster into 7475 Friday high. Below opens 7385 overnight VAL stack then 7363 prev week low gates air to 7282 prev week VAL and 7160 April POC. Quiet morning, watch the auctions midday.

NQ:

29220, overnight last sitting just under 29218 Friday VAL. Above reclaims 29218 then opens 29300 Friday POC into 29426 prev week POC and 29486 Friday high. Below 29220 fails through 29139 overnight POC into 29089 Friday low, then the 29005 prev week VAL / 28990 overnight low stack opens air to 28742 prev week low and 27622 prev month high. Sixteen straight up days unwound in one Globex, the digestion is still working through.

CL:

99.07 CLN26 overnight last after the Sunday spike to 104.37 puked back. Above 99 holds we target 100 round, 101.02 Friday close into 101.57 Friday high and 104.37 the rejected Sunday spike. Below 99 fails through 98.87 overnight low, 97.23 Friday low gives, then 96.50 put floor / 96.44 expected low stack opens the deeper test. The Sunday spike was a one-day premium the market sold.

GC:

4558, overnight last right at Friday POC 4559 after the prev week destruction. Above reclaims 4565 / 4571 Friday VAH and Friday high stack, then 4595 high-vol magnet opens 4615 Friday open and the deeper 4664 prev week VAL / 4696 month POC anchors. Below 4558 fails through 4533 overnight low into the 4513 Friday low / prev week low stack, then 4500 structural floor and 4450 April put floor catch the cascade. Prev month POC 4812 sits up in the air, yields are the trade.

The White Van Stuff

Yields up, dollar firm, oil vol bid hard on the Sunday-night spike-and-reject. The whole positioning cage rebuilt this weekend around the new oil shape and the post-Friday equity pullback. Watch the bands more than the levels today, implied ranges are wider than the structural cascade suggests.

ES sits 7420 on the pivot with the cage compressed. Same-day cap 7460 above, same-day floor 7400 below.

NQ parked 29220 right on the 29230 pivot. Same-day magnet 29490 well overhead, same-day floor 29000 sits 220 below as the gate.

CLN26 sits 99.07 mid-band. Vol bid to 72% from 54%, expected range 96.44 to 105.60, asymmetric upside risk into the rolled contract.

GC sits 4558 below the 4595 high-vol magnet and 4600 call ceiling stack. Lower band 4500 lines up with the 4513 prev week low gate.

Play like a champion.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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The Tape

ES put in a trend day up Thursday closing 7526 at the highs with POC 7525.75 and value 7507.75 to 7532.75. Globex stretched back to 7528 and rolled hard, dumping through yesterday’s whole value area to 7429.75. Currently 7436 right on 7437 overnight POC and 7435 week POC stacked. Bull-case is 7435 holds and the reclaim works back through 7472 week VAH toward 7507 yesterday VAL and the 7525 yesterday POC / 7526 close cluster. Bear-case is 7435 fails through 7429 overnight low into the 7427 prev week VAH / 7420 May POC stack, then air to 7282 prev week VAL and 7160 April POC.

NQ was the lead and the lead reversed. Thursday closed 29686 at the highs with POC 29690 and value 29636 to 29770. Globex pushed 29734 fresh, then rolled all the way through yesterday’s range to 29142.5. Currently 29172 right on 29180 overnight VAL with 29179 week VAL stacked one tick under. Bull-case is the value bottom holds and the reclaim works through 29339 overnight POC into 29476 yesterday VAL then 29686 yesterday POC. Bear-case is 29179 fails into 29001 prev week VAH, then air to 28670 prev week POC and 27880 May POC. Fresh print to fresh dump in one Globex.

CL is the one that actually broke through. Thursday closed 102 at the high with POC 101.02 and value 100.44 to 101.42. Globex ripped through 103, 104, and 105.31 fresh in one sweep, parking 103.88 between 103.64 overnight VAL and 104.5 overnight POC. The 100 line that capped four weekly attempts is officially behind us. Bull-case is 103.64 holds and the upside extends through 105.31 overnight high into air above 106.76 prev week high. Bear-case is 103.64 fails, the 102 May POC stack rolls the rally back inside Thursday, and 100 is the question one more time.

GC was the one that didn’t survive the reversal. Thursday closed 4659.50 at the lows with POC 4688 and value 4672 to 4698. Globex opened 4610 below value, pushed 4670, then puked through every layer of structure to 4535.40. Currently 4544 between 4548 overnight VAL and 4558 overnight POC. The yield reprice killed the trade. Bull-case is 4535 holds and the reclaim works through 4558 overnight POC into 4584 prev week VAL and 4658 yesterday close. Bear-case is 4535 fails through 4522 April low into open air toward 4450 where the April long crowd finally goes underwater.

The Calendar

- 7:30 AM CT, NY Empire State Manufacturing (May)

- 7:30 AM CT, Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization / Manufacturing Production (April)

- 8:15 AM CT, Industrial Production update

- 11:00 AM CT, NOPA Crush Report

- 12:00 PM CT, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

The Plan

7435, the line stacked on overnight POC and week POC where Globex parked after the reversal. Above 7435 holds we target 7465 overnight VAH, then 7470 session VWAP into 7472 week VAH. Above 7472 the rebuild opens up the prior session toward 7507 yesterday VAL then 7525 yesterday POC stacked with 7526 close. Above 7526 we extend to 7528 overnight high, 7532 yesterday VAH, 7540 yesterday high in clean air. Below 7435 fails and we lose 7431 overnight VAL, 7429 overnight low, then 7427 prev week VAH stacked tight with the 7420 May POC / prior-week POC pair is the next gate. Below 7420 the air opens to 7363 week low, 7282 prev week VAL, 7160 April POC. Friday tape into the weekend.

The Bracket: Trigger 7435 (overnight POC / week POC stacked, where Globex parked the reversal). Above 7435 holds the cascade runs 7465 overnight VAH, 7470 session VWAP, 7472 week VAH, 7507 yesterday VAL, 7525 yesterday POC, 7540 yesterday high. Below 7435 fails through 7431 overnight VAL, 7429 overnight low, 7427 prev week VAH / 7420 May POC stack, then air to 7363 week low, 7282 prev week VAL, 7160 April POC. Voided by chop in 7430 to 7445 through the first hour with no clean break either side.

29180, overnight VAL with 29179 week VAL at the identical number where Globex parked the dump. Above 29180 holds we target 29339 overnight POC, 29360 overnight VAH, then 29476 yesterday VAL reopens the upside toward 29636 yesterday VAL and 29686 yesterday POC. Above 29686 the run reopens through 29734 overnight high then 29782 yesterday high in air. Below 29180 fails, 29142 overnight low cracks, then 29001 prev week VAH catches the first leg, with 28742 week low and 28670 prev week POC the staircase below. Below 28670 the air opens to 27880 May POC and 27400 April POC where the multi-month volume sits. Sixteen sessions of green ended in one Globex.

The Bracket: Trigger 29180 (overnight VAL / week VAL stack, the line Globex parked the dump on). Above 29180 holds the cascade runs 29339 overnight POC, 29360 overnight VAH, 29476 yesterday VAL, 29636 second yesterday VAL, 29686 yesterday POC, 29734 overnight high. Below 29180 fails through 29142 overnight low, 29001 prev week VAH, 28742 week low, 28670 prev week POC, then air to 27880 May POC and 27400 April POC. Voided by a rejection of the overnight low and reclaim above 29200 holding through 9:30.

104.5 overnight POC, the new line crude built around after clearing 100. Above 104.5 holds we target 105.28 overnight VAH stacked with 105.31 overnight high, then air reopens above 106.76 prev week high in clean structure. Below 104.5 fails and 104.22 May VAH cracks, then 103.64 overnight VAL into 102 May POC / yesterday close stack rolls the rally back into Thursday’s value. Past 102 the staircase opens through 101.42 yesterday VAH, 101.02 yesterday POC, then 100 the line is the question one more time. Below 100 the unwind opens through 99.52 week VAL stacked with 99.52 prev month VAH, then 95 prev week POC catches the deeper fade. The line finally flipped.

The Bracket: Trigger 104.5 (overnight POC, the new line built after clearing 100). Above 104.5 holds the cascade runs 105.28 overnight VAH, 105.31 overnight high, 106.76 prev week high, open air. Below 104.5 fails through 104.22 May VAH, 103.64 overnight VAL, 102 May POC, 101.02 yesterday POC, 100 the flipped line, 99.52 week VAL / prev month VAH stack, 95 prev week POC. Voided by chop in 103.50 to 104.80 through the rig count print with no clean break either side.

4548, overnight VAL where price is parked after the puke from 4670. Above 4548 holds we target 4558 overnight POC, 4578 overnight VAH, then 4584 prev week VAL gates the rebuild toward 4625 the next structural level. Above 4625 the move runs through 4658 yesterday close, 4672 yesterday VAL, 4688 yesterday POC paired with 4688 April VAL right on the line, then 4698 yesterday VAH puts the rebuild back inside Thursday’s prior value. Below 4548 fails, 4535 overnight low / week low cracks, and the cascade opens through 4522 April low into open air. Past 4522 the 4510 prev week low gives, and unfilled structure runs back toward the 4450 prior swing where the long crowd from the April peak finally goes underwater. Yields up means gold down. Your bet’s as good as mine on the precious from here.

The Bracket: Trigger 4548 (overnight VAL, where price parked after the puke from 4670). Above 4548 holds the cascade runs 4558 overnight POC, 4578 overnight VAH, 4584 prev week VAL, 4658 yesterday close, 4672 yesterday VAL, 4688 yesterday POC / April VAL stack. Below 4548 fails through 4535 overnight low / week low, 4522 April low, 4510 prev week low, then air toward 4450 the prior swing. Voided by chop in 4540 to 4570 holding through the first hour with no clean break either side.

The White Van Stuff

The cage rebuilt entirely overnight on the reversal. ES sits 7436 below the 7475 today’s pivot and 7490 same-day floor flipped from above, with daily expected range plus or minus 0.94% (about 70 handles, 7457 to 7594) and current price already outside the implied low. NQ is parked 29172 below the 29300 same-day floor flipped from above and the 29510 intraday flip line now well overhead, daily band plus or minus 1.36% (about 400 points, 29286 to 30089) and current price also below the implied low. Crude tagged 105.31 with the 102.30 same-day cap flipped to support after Thursday’s break above 100, daily band 96.86 to 105.48 with the 100.99 intraday flip line now well below as the new line. Gold settled 4544 below the 4675 same-day floor and 4685 intraday flip line both fully broken in the overnight puke, daily band 4625 to 4745 with current price well below the implied low. Yields up, dollar up, equities and gold getting carried out.

ES is trading 7436 already below the implied low at 7456.92 after the overnight reversal. Above price the 7456 expected low is the first reclaim test, then 7475 today’s pivot stacks with another heavy interest right at the line ahead of the 7490 today’s put floor flipped to resistance. Past 7490 the 7500 (just above) leads into the 7550 all-expiry call ceiling, then 7570 / 7575 heavy interest into the 7594 expected high stack with 7600 same-day cap, 7625, and 7650 heavy interest stair-stepping above. Below price the 7425 heavy interest catches first, then 7400 stacks tight ahead of the 7365 magnet level, then the 7000 structural floor sits in the far air below. Daily band about 70 handles either side. Price below the band on a reversal is the read.

NQ is trading 29172 below the 29286 expected low and the 29300 today’s put floor flipped to resistance after the overnight reversal. Above price the 29250 heavy interest is the first reclaim test, then 29286 expected low / 29300 put floor stack ahead of the 29510 today’s pivot now well overhead. Past 29510 the 29520, 29600, 29750, 29800, 29900 heavy interest cluster cascades into 30000 the structural call ceiling stacked with same-day gamma at the same line, then 30089 expected high before 30100 and 30250 heavy interest top the upper band. Below price the 29100 heavy interest catches first, then the 29000 / 28990 magnet level stack opens the deeper cascade. Daily band about 400 points either side. The whole positioning cage rebuilt below price overnight.

Crude tagged 105.31 with the 102.30 today’s cap fully cleared and flipped to support after Thursday’s break above 100. Above 104.39 nearby above the 105.48 expected high tops the daily band with another heavy cluster at 105.95 right above, then 109.60 all-expiry call ceiling sits in clean structure. Below price the 103.34 heavy interest catches first, then 102.82 today’s cap leads into the 102.30 today’s call cap flipped to support, with 102 heavy interest tucked right under it. Past 102 the 100.99 today’s pivot sits at the flipped 100 area before the 100.21 today’s put floor and 99.17 heavy interest cascade through 98.12, 96.86 expected low, 96.03, then 93.95 magnet level catches the deeper fade. Daily band about 4 handles either side.

Gold is trading 4544 below the 4625 expected low and the 4675 / 4685 today’s put floor + pivot stack both fully broken in the overnight puke. Above price the 4575 / 4580 heavy interest pair catches first, then 4600 heavy interest leads into 4620 heavy interest at the 4625 expected low / standard floor all-expiry line. Past 4625 the 4630 catches before the 4675 today’s put floor flipped to resistance stacks with 4680 / 4685 today’s pivot right on top. Above 4685 the 4700 same-day call cap leads into 4720, 4725, 4745 expected high stack, then 4750 heavy interest leads to the 4800 all-expiry call ceiling far above. Daily band about 60 handles either side. Price well below the band on a yield-driven puke.

Protect yourself at all times.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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What I’m Watching

ES is in price discovery above the entire prior session, sitting 7493 with the Globex high 7496.25 just overhead. Bull-case is 7480 overnight POC holds, the 7484 yesterday high / 7483.50 yesterday VAH / 7483.75 May VAH triple stack now acts as flipped support, and the upside extends through 7496 overnight high into fresh print toward 7539 expected high. Bear-case is 7480 fails, 7475 overnight VAL cracks, and 7469 yesterday POC stacked with 7468 yesterday close caps the slide back into Wednesday’s range, then 7452 week VAH and 7435 week POC catch the deeper test. Below 7435: 7427 prior week VAH, 7420 May POC, 7399 yesterday low, 7282 prev wk VAL, 7160 April POC.

NQ is whether the overnight fresh print holds or rolls like Tuesday’s 29447 probe. Wednesday closed 29476 inside value, Globex ripped to 29693 fresh ATH territory, and price parked 29550 right back on overnight POC. Bull-case is 29550 holds as the line value built around overnight, 29565 yesterday high / yesterday VAH stack reclaims, and the rebuild works through 29627 overnight VAH into 29693 the fresh high retest with 29880 expected ceiling in clean air above. Bear-case is 29550 fails, 29533 overnight VAL cracks, and the slide opens through 29476 yesterday close, 29480 yesterday POC stacked with 29495 week VAH, then 29425 week POC. Past 29425 the staircase runs through 29340 prev week high (now flipped support), 29245 yesterday VAL, 29073 week VAL, 29001 prev week VAH, 28742 week low, 28670 prev week POC, 27880 May POC.

CL is the messiest read on the board for the fourth week running. Yesterday closed 101.36 inside the prior range, Globex flushed below the 100 line to 99.60, ripped back to 102.35, and parked 100.13 right at the line. Bull-case is 100 holds, 100.73 overnight VAL and 100.81 yesterday VAL reclaim, and the staircase opens through 100.96 overnight POC, 101.01 yesterday POC, 101.36 yesterday close into the 101.73 overnight VAH and 102 May POC gate. Above 102 the upside extends to 102.35 overnight high, 102.59 yesterday VAH, 103.67 yesterday high with 104.22 May VAH the structural ceiling. Bear-case is 100 fails, 99.60 overnight low cracks, and the cascade opens through 98 week POC, 97 the magnet level, 96.14 week VAL stacked with 96.13 week low. Below 96: 95.29 May VAL, 95 prior week POC, 90.31 prev wk VAL, 89.70 April POC.

GC is whether 4673 was the give-back floor or just the first leg lower. Yesterday closed 4696 with value parked at the close, Globex ripped 17 handles to 4725.80 then dumped 53 to 4673.20, and price sits 4708 between yesterday’s VAH and overnight POC. Bull-case is 4705 overnight POC holds, 4711 overnight VAH reclaims, 4718 yesterday high tests, and the upside opens through 4725 overnight high into the 4729 week VAH gate. Above 4729 the path runs 4750 today’s cap, 4770 May VAH, 4775 prior week high. Bear-case is 4705 fails, 4696 yesterday close cracks, 4695 overnight VAL stacks with 4688 April VAL just below, and the staircase opens through 4681 yesterday VAL, 4676 yesterday low, 4673 overnight low into 4670 week VAL. Below 4670: 4652 May VAL, 4645 week low, 4584 prev wk VAL.

The Calendar

- 9:00 AM CT, Business Inventories (March)

- 9:15 AM CT, Fed Schmid Speech

- 9:30 AM CT, EIA Natural Gas Stocks

- 12:00 PM CT, Fed Bowman + Fed Hammack Speeches

- 4:45 PM CT, Fed Williams Speech

- 6:00 PM CT, Fed Barr Speech

The Plan

7484 yesterday high, the breakout line price already cleared overnight. Above 7484 holds we target 7488 overnight VAH, then 7496 overnight high. Above 7496 the upside reopens into fresh print toward 7539 expected high in clean air. Below 7484 fails and we lose 7480 overnight POC, 7475 overnight VAL, then 7469 yesterday POC stacked with 7468 yesterday close back into Wednesday’s range. Past 7468 the staircase opens through 7452 week VAH, 7435 week POC, 7428 yesterday VAL, 7427 prior week VAH stacked with 7420 May POC. Below 7420 we extend to 7399 yesterday low, 7282 prior week VAL, 7160 April POC.

The Bracket: Trigger 7484 (yesterday high, the breakout line price already cleared overnight). Above 7484 holds the cascade runs 7488 overnight VAH, 7496 overnight high, 7539 expected ceiling. Below 7484 fails through 7480 overnight POC, 7475 overnight VAL, 7469 yesterday POC, 7468 yesterday close, 7452 week VAH, 7435 week POC, 7427 prior week VAH / 7420 May POC stack, then air to 7282 prior week VAL and 7160 April POC. Voided by chop in 7480 to 7500 with no clean break either side.

29550 overnight POC, the line price coiled around overnight after the fresh print rolled back 150. Above 29550 holds we target 29565 yesterday high stacked with yesterday VAH right above, then 29627 overnight VAH, then 29693 the fresh high retest with 29880 expected ceiling in clean air. Below 29550 fails and 29533 overnight VAL cracks, then 29476 yesterday close stacked with 29480 yesterday POC opens the slide. Past 29476 the staircase runs through 29495 week VAH, 29425 week POC, 29340 prev week high (now flipped support), 29245 yesterday VAL, 29073 week VAL, 29001 prev week VAH. Below 29000 the air opens to 28742 week low, 28670 prev week POC, 27880 May POC.

The Bracket: Trigger 29550 (overnight POC, the line price coiled around after the fresh print rolled back). Above 29550 holds the path opens to 29565 yesterday high / VAH stack, 29627 overnight VAH, 29693 fresh high retest, 29880 expected ceiling. Below 29550 fails through 29533 overnight VAL, 29476 yesterday close, 29425 week POC, 29340 prev week high, 29245 yesterday VAL, 29073 week VAL, 29001 prev week VAH, then air to 28670 prev week POC and 27880 May POC. Voided by a fresh-print rejection back inside 29530 to 29580 holding through 10:00.

100, the line crude has tested four weeks running and refuses to settle either side of. Price sits 100.13 right on it after the overnight 99.60 flush. Above 100 holds we target 100.73 overnight VAL stacked with 100.81 yesterday VAL, then 100.96 overnight POC, 101.01 yesterday POC, 101.36 yesterday close, with 101.73 overnight VAH and 102 May POC the gate. Above 102 the upside extends through 102.35 overnight high, 102.59 yesterday VAH, 103.67 yesterday high to 104.22 May VAH the structural ceiling. Below 100 fails and 99.60 overnight low cracks, then 98 week POC, 97 the magnet level, 96.14 week VAL stacked with 96.13 week low. Below 96: 95 prior week POC, 95.29 May VAL, 90.31 prev wk VAL, 89.70 April POC.

The Bracket: Trigger 100 (the line crude has tested four weeks running, today’s pivot). Above 100 holds the cascade runs 100.73 overnight VAL / 100.81 yesterday VAL, 101 round, 101.01 yesterday POC, 101.36 yesterday close, 101.73 overnight VAH, 102 May POC, 102.35 overnight high, 102.59 yesterday VAH, 103.67 yesterday high, 104.22 May VAH. Below 100 fails through 99.60 overnight low, 98 week POC, 97 magnet level, 96.14 week VAL, 95 prior week POC, 95.29 May VAL, then deeper to 90.31 prior week VAL and 89.70 April POC. Voided by another chop session inside 99.80 to 100.50 with no clean acceptance either side of 100.

4705 overnight POC, the line price keeps coming back to after the 50-handle Globex whip. Above 4705 holds we target 4711 overnight VAH, 4718 yesterday high, 4725 overnight high, then 4729 week VAH the gate. Above 4729 the upside reopens to 4750 today’s cap, 4770 May VAH, 4775 prior week high. Below 4705 fails and 4696 yesterday close stacked with 4696 yesterday POC cracks, then 4695 overnight VAL, 4688 April VAL, 4681 yesterday VAL, 4676 yesterday low, 4673 overnight low open the staircase into 4670 week VAL. Below 4670: 4652 May VAL, 4645 week low, 4584.

The Bracket: Trigger 4705 (overnight POC, the line price keeps coming back to after the 50-handle Globex whip). Above 4705 holds the cascade runs 4711 overnight VAH, 4718 yesterday high, 4725 overnight high, 4729 week VAH, 4750 today’s cap, 4770 May VAH, 4775 prior week high. Below 4705 fails through 4696 yesterday close / POC stack, 4695 overnight VAL, 4688 April VAL, 4681 yesterday VAL, 4676 yesterday low, 4673 overnight low, 4670 week VAL, then air to 4652 May VAL and 4584 the multi-week low. Voided by chop inside 4695 to 4720 with no clean break either side.

The White Van Stuff

The cage expanded again on equities and tightened on the commodities. ES is parked 7493 between the 7475 today’s pivot just below and the 7500 call ceiling at price overhead, daily expected range plus or minus 0.93% (about 70 handles, 7423 to 7539). NQ is sitting 29550 above the 29400 heavy cluster and the 29330 today’s cap that just flipped support, with daily band plus or minus 1.32% (about 400 points, 29078 to 29881). Crude tagged 100.13 on the 100 call ceiling, the line capping four weekly runs in a row, daily band 97.56 to 104.48 with the 97 magnet just below. Gold settled 4708 below the 4720 today’s pivot and 4725 today’s cap with the 4750 0DTE ceiling overhead, daily band 4641 to 4772, the 4685 0DTE pivot caught the overnight dump.

ES is parked 7493 right under the 7500 call ceiling that caps every upside move from here, with the 7525 nearby above and 7539 expected ceiling defining the upper band. Above 7500 the 7525 cluster leads into the 7550, 7575, 7600 heavy interest stair ahead of price discovery. Below price the 7475 today’s pivot is the first reclaim test, then 7460 heavy interest leads to 7450 today’s put floor at the upper edge of yesterday’s range. Past 7450 the 7425 and 7400 heavy interest pair sits ahead of the 7399 expected low capping the lower band. Below 7399 the 7380 cluster catches before 7365 magnet level.

NQ is sitting 29550 above the 29330 today’s cap that capped the breakout overnight, now flipped support from below. Above price the 29600 nearby above leads into 29750 upside target, then 29880 expected ceiling tops the upper band ahead of 29900 heavy interest, 30000 structural call ceiling, and 30250 in price discovery. Below 29330 the 29300 today’s put floor catches first, then 29077 expected low caps the lower band. Past 29000 the 28990 magnet level, 28800 and 28750 heavy interest cluster cascade into 27580 standard floor where the structural anchor lives.

Crude tagged 100.13 on the 100 call ceiling that has capped four weekly runs in a row. Above 100 the 101 upside target leads into 103 heavy interest, then 104.48 expected high before 105 and 105.50 sit overhead. Below 100 the 99 heavy interest catches first, then 98 stacks with the 97 magnet level at the day’s structural anchor. Past 97 the 97.56 expected low caps the lower band, then 96, 95.50, 95 cascade into the 85 standard floor far below. Daily band about three and a half handles on either side.

Gold settled 4708 between the 4725 today’s pivot just overhead and the 4685 0DTE pivot just below. Above price the 4725 stack leads into the 4750 today’s cap, then 4772 expected high tops the upper band with 4775 heavy interest at the same line. Past 4775 the 4800 call ceiling and 4825 heavy interest sit ahead of price discovery. Below price the 4685 0DTE pivot is the first test, then 4680 heavy interest catches before the 4650 pair. Past 4650 the 4641 expected low caps the lower band ahead of the 4625, 4620 cluster cascading into the 4600 and 4450 structural floor below. Daily band about 65 handles on either side.

Go break some eggs.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

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The Tape

ES put in a wide CPI session Tuesday, opening 7414, diving to 7363, then rallying the whole range back to close 7428 right at the highs. Value built at 7426.50 POC inside 7383.25 VAL to 7433.50 VAH, so the print absorbed the move and parked value at the top of the range. Globex pushed to 7454.25 fresh, ticked the week-high cluster, and rolled back to 7422 right at overnight POC 7420. Decision tape just like Monday.

NQ ran the same Tuesday playbook with twice the violence, opening 29213, diving to 28742, then bouncing back to close 29174 mid-range. Value built lower at 28888 POC with VAH 29144.75 and VAL 28806.75, so the dive printed the bulk of the volume. Globex then ripped to 29447 fresh, immediately rolled all the way back to 29055, and bounced to 29245 sitting just under overnight POC 29295. The wick is the tell.

CL continued the move, opening 100.76, holding the 100 line all session, ranging 100.68 to 102.73 and closing 102.38 just under the highs. POC 101.60 with VAH 102.11 built right under the high. Globex pushed to 102.75 fresh, currently 102.54 above all near-term structure. Three weeks of failed pushes above 100 and the line finally flipped.

GC put in the give-back, opening 4712, diving to 4645, then rallying the whole range back to close 4723 right at the highs. POC 4686.90 with VAH 4705.50 built lower, so the value never came along with the close. Globex opened 4707, tagged 4723.10, rolled to 4682, and is sitting 4687 right back at yesterday’s POC. The whole close-rally just got unwound.

What I’m Watching

ES: Tuesday’s wide range absorbed the print, value parked at 7426 POC right at the highs, and Globex pushed fresh to 7454 before rolling back into today’s value. Bull-case is 7420 overnight POC holds, 7428 yesterday close reclaims, and the upside opens through 7432 week POC, 7440 overnight VAH, into 7454 the Globex high stacked with 7454.75 week high and 7454.50 month VAH at the same triple-stack ceiling. Above 7454 the trifecta breaks and the upside reopens toward 7475 nearby cap, then 7495 expected ceiling and the 7500 structural call ceiling. Bear-case is 7420 fails, 7412 overnight VAL and 7410 overnight low crack, and the staircase opens through 7395 week VAL, 7383 yesterday VAL, 7363 yesterday low. Past 7363 the air opens to 7282 prev week VAL and 7160 April POC where the real volume lives. Fed speakers run midday through the close.

NQ is whether the overnight probe was the high or just the first leg. Tuesday opened 29213, dove to 28742, closed 29174, then Globex ripped fresh to 29447 and immediately rolled back to 29055. Bull-case is 29245 holds, 29295 overnight POC reclaims, and the rebuild works through 29343 overnight VAH, 29400 week POC, into 29447 the failed-breakout retest with 29480 week VAH right above. Above 29480 we open 29556 today expected high and the 29600 cluster toward 29750 in clean air. Bear-case is 29295 stays a cap from above, 29245 fails, 29174 yesterday close cracks, 29144 yesterday VAH stays a cap, and the cascade opens through 29086 overnight VAL, 29055 overnight low, 29015 week VAL, 29001 prev week VAH. Past 29000 the staircase runs through 28888 yesterday POC, 28806 yesterday VAL, 28742 the deep print, then open air below to 28670 prev week POC and 27880 May POC where the real volume parked. Probe and reverse on the highs is a real read. Don’t fight the print.

CL is the cleanest read on the board. The 100 line that capped for three weeks finally flipped from above to below, Tuesday closed 102.38, Globex pushed 102.75 fresh, currently 102.54. Bull-case is 102 holds as the May POC, the 102.13 prev week VAH and 102.75 Globex high cluster breaks, and the upside opens to 104.22 May VAH where the multi-week ceiling lives, then 106.36 expected high with 106.76 prev week high as the wider structural test above. Bear-case is 102 fails, 101.95 overnight VAH cracks, 101.60 yesterday POC rejects from above, and the staircase opens through 101.28 yesterday VAL, 100.75 overnight VAL, 100 the flipped line. Lose 100 and the rally unwinds through 98 the week POC, 97 magnet level, then 96.14 week VAL and 95 prev week POC catch the deeper fade. The 9:30 print is the override and inventory is a coin flip after yesterday’s API.

GC is whether 4682 was the give-back floor or the start of a deeper unwind. Tuesday opened 4712, dove to 4645, then rallied the whole way back to close 4723 right at the highs. Globex tagged 4723.10, rolled to 4682, and now sits 4687 below overnight VAL 4695. Bull-case is 4682 holds, 4695 reclaims (overnight VAL stacked with the same-day put floor at this line), and the rebuild works through 4705 the week POC / overnight POC / yesterday VAH cluster, 4719 overnight VAH, into 4723 the yesterday close / Globex high gate, then 4734 overnight high stacked with 4735 week VAH. Bear-case is 4695 holds as resistance, 4688 April VAL cracks, 4682 overnight low fails, then 4670 the magnet level / week VAL stack opens through 4647 May VAL and 4645 yesterday low, with 4618 expected low and 4584 prev week VAL the deeper test. The post-rally give-back is the worry. If equities crack on the print gold catches a bid; if the print confirms cool the long crowd keeps trimming.

The Calendar

- 10:30 AM CT, Fed Collins speech

- 12:00 PM CT, 30-Year Bond Auction

- 12:15 PM CT, Fed Kashkari speech

- 6:00 PM CT, Fed Logan speech

The Plan

7420 overnight POC, the line value parked at across Tuesday’s CPI session. Above 7420 holds we target 7426 yesterday POC and 7428 yesterday close stacked, then 7432 week POC into 7440 overnight VAH. Above 7440 we extend through 7454 the Globex high / week high / month VAH triple stack, with 7475 and 7495 expected ceiling above that. Below 7420 fails and 7412 overnight VAL cracks, then 7395 week VAL stacked with 7394 May POC, then 7383 yesterday VAL and 7363 yesterday low open the deeper test. Past 7363 the air opens to 7282 prev week VAL and 7160 April POC where the real volume sits.

The Bracket: Trigger 7420 (overnight POC, where value parked through Tuesday’s CPI session). Above 7420 holds the cascade runs 7428 yesterday close, 7432 week POC, 7440 overnight VAH, 7454 Globex high, week high, and month VAH stacked on one line, 7495 expected high. Below 7420 fails through 7412 overnight VAL, 7394 May POC / 7395 week VAL, 7383 yesterday VAL, 7363 yesterday low, then air to 7282 prev week VAL. Voided by chop in 7415 to 7430 with no clean break.

29295 overnight POC is the reclaim line and the gate for revisiting the overnight breakout. Above 29295 holds we target 29343 overnight VAH, 29400 week POC, then 29447 the failed-breakout retest stacked with 29480 week VAH and 29556 today expected high above. Below 29295 the line caps the reclaim attempt and 29245 fails, 29174 yesterday close cracks, and the staircase opens through 29086 overnight VAL, 29055 overnight low, 29015 week VAL, 29001 prev week VAH. Past 29000 the staircase opens through 28888 yesterday POC, 28806 yesterday VAL, 28742 yesterday low, then air to 28670 prev week POC and 27400 April POC where the real volume lives. Probe and reverse on the highs is a real read.

The Bracket: Trigger 29295 (overnight POC, the reclaim line and gate to revisit the overnight breakout). Above 29295 holds the path opens to 29343 overnight VAH, 29400 week POC, 29447 failed-breakout retest, 29480 week VAH, 29556 expected high. Below 29295 fails through 29174 yesterday close, 29086 overnight VAL, 29055 overnight low, 29001 prev week VAH, with open air below to 28670 prev week POC and 27400 April POC. Voided by chop in 29240 to 29320 with no clean break.

102 May POC, the line the entire rally either defends or gives back. Above 102 holds we target 102.13 prev week VAH stacked just above, then 102.75 the Globex high / yesterday high cluster, then 104.22 May VAH where the multi-week ceiling lives. Above 104.22 we extend toward 106.36 expected high and 106.76 prev week high. Below 102 fails and 101.28 yesterday VAL, 100.75 overnight VAL crack, then 100 the flipped line is the support test. Lose 100 and the rally unwinds through 98 the week POC, 97 magnet level, then 96.14 week VAL and 95 prev week POC catch the deeper fade. The 9:30 inventory release is the override.

The Bracket: Trigger 102 (May POC, the line the rally either defends or gives back). Above 102 holds the upside runs through 102.13 prev week VAH, 102.75 Globex / yesterday high cluster, 104.22 May VAH, 106.36 expected high, 106.76 prev week high. Below 102 fails through 101.28 yesterday VAL, 100.75 overnight VAL, 100 flipped line, 98 week POC, then deeper to 96.14 week VAL and 95 prev week POC. Voided by chop in 101.80 to 102.30 with no clean break.

4695 overnight VAL is the line price sits just under after the overnight unwind. Above 4695 holds we target 4705 the week POC / overnight POC / yesterday VAH cluster, then 4719 overnight VAH, then 4723 the yesterday close / Globex high gate, with 4734 overnight high stacked at 4735 week VAH right above. Above 4735 the upside reopens to 4754 expected high, 4770 May VAH, 4775 prev week high. Below 4695 holds as resistance, 4688 April VAL cracks, 4682 overnight low fails, then 4670 the magnet level / week VAL stack catches. Past 4670 the air opens through 4647 May VAL, 4645 the previous session low, then 4618 expected low and 4584 prev week VAL where the long crowd from the April peak either defends or starts puking inventory. Your bet’s as good as mine on the precious.

The Bracket: Trigger 4695 (overnight VAL, the line price sits under after the overnight unwind). Above 4695 holds the cascade runs 4705 week POC / overnight POC / yesterday VAH triple stack, 4719 overnight VAH, 4723 yesterday close / Globex high, 4734 overnight high stacked with 4735 week VAH, 4770 May VAH, 4775 prev week high. Below 4695 fails through 4688 April VAL, 4682 overnight low, 4670 week VAL / magnet level, with clean air down to 4647 May VAL, 4645 yesterday low, 4584 prev week VAL. Voided by chop in 4685 to 4705 with no clean break.

The White Van Stuff

The post-CPI cage expanded and the structure shifted under every instrument. ES sits 7422 between the 7400 nearest below and the 7425 today’s pivot just above with daily expected range plus or minus 0.93% (about 69 handles, 7357 to 7495). NQ is the sneaky one. The 29000 structural call ceiling sits well below price after weeks of holding above (positioning still call-dominated, positive territory), with the 29400 same-day cap sitting tight below the 29447 failed-breakout retest line. NQ daily band is plus or minus 1.32% (about 386 points, 28783 to 29556). Crude sits 102.54 above all near-term structure with the 105 today’s cap as the next overhead cluster, daily band 98 to 106.36. Gold dumped below the 4695 same-day put floor and 4700 today’s pivot overnight, both flipped into resistance, with the 4725 today’s cap and 4750 nearest above stacked, daily band 4618 to 4754. Morning catalyst at 7:30 sets the cage.

ES sits 7422 right between the 7425 today’s pivot just above and the 7400 nearest below where positioning anchors price into the open. Above 7422 the 7425 pivot is the first reclaim test, then 7450 today’s cap stacks ahead of the 7475 nearby above. Past 7475 the 7495 expected ceiling lines up with the 7500 call ceiling at the same level, then 7525, 7530, and 7550 heavy interest sit in the upper expected band. Below price the 7400 nearest below catches first, then 7385 magnet level stacks with 7380 today’s put floor (standard floor stacked here). Past 7380 the 7375 nearby below cracks, then 7357 expected low and 7340 heavy interest form the lower band before the deeper cascade. Daily band about 69 handles either side. The print sets the cage.

NQ sits 29245 with the 29250 nearest above stacked right at price after the overnight 29447 probe rolled back. Above 29250 the 29300 nearby above catches first, then 29400 same-day cap (the line that capped the overnight breakout) sits ahead of the 29500 upside target. Past 29500 the 29556 expected high tops the daily band, then 29600 and 29750 heavy interest sit in clean air. Below price the 29110 today’s pivot is the first test, then 29100 heavy interest catches at the 29000 call ceiling (the structural cap that broke weeks ago, now back in range and acting as the flipped support test). Below 29000 the 28990 magnet level, 28900 today’s put floor, and 28850 standard floor stack tight before 28783 expected low opens the deeper cascade. Daily band about 386 points either side. Probe and reverse on the highs is the read.

Crude options got rewritten by the rally. The 100 call ceiling that capped three weeks of pushes flipped to support below price after Tuesday’s close above. CL sits 102.54 above the 102 upside target with the 105 today’s cap and 105.50 heavy interest as the next overhead cluster, then 106.36 expected high tops the daily band before 109 and 110 sit in clean air. Below 102 the 101.50 today’s put floor (standard floor and same-day pivot stacked together) is the line the reclaim sits on, then 101 nearby below and 100 the flipped support catch the deeper fade. Past 100 the 99 nearest below, 98 expected low, and 97 magnet level cascade through to the structural floor below. Daily band plus or minus 4 handles either side.

Gold’s options structure broke down overnight. The 4700 today’s pivot and 4695 same-day put both flipped from support to resistance as price dumped to 4682, sitting 4687 right between them. Above price the 4700 pivot is the first reclaim test, then 4725 today’s cap stacks ahead of the 4750 nearest above and 4754 expected high. Past 4754 the 4775 heavy interest, 4800 call ceiling, and 4820 heavy interest sit in the upper expected band. Below price the 4670 magnet level catches first, then 4650 heavy interest, then the 4625 nearest below / 4620 nearby below pair, then 4618 expected low at the floor. Past 4618 the 4600 heavy interest is the deeper test before the structural cascade. Daily band plus or minus 68 handles either side.

Do your job.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

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The Tape

ES put in a continuation up Monday, opening 7395 and closing 7421 against the 7428 high. Value built between 7412 VAL and 7421.75 VAH with POC at 7420. Globex traded a 22-handle cage at 7402 to 7424 and rolled into the lower edge, sitting 7403 right at today VAL 7402.50. Two sessions of agreement around 7412 to 7420 broke from below. The digestion line just gave.

NQ went straight up Monday, opening 28878 and closing 29339 at the highs with POC 29285. Globex opened 29282, ran one tick higher to 29303, then rolled the entire 182 down to 29121 before bouncing to 29130. Currently 29130 between today VAL 29162 and the Globex low. Sixteen sessions of green and the first real overnight roll of the run.

CL Monday opened 95.35 and closed 94.91 inside Friday’s 93.91 to 96.18 range. POC 95.36, value 95.07 to 96.03. Globex gapped open at 99.04, pulled the move of the night with a rip to 102.05, currently 101.66. Cleared every overhead from prev week’s 95 base through the 100 line, today’s 99 cap, and the 100.22 today VAL stack on the same trip. Crude is doing what crude does.

GC Monday opened 4717 and closed 4733 inside Friday’s value with POC 4734. Globex opened 4722, ran to 4731, then sold 39 to 4692 before settling 4708. Below yesterday VAL 4716 and the today VAL 4695 stack. Inside today’s value but below yesterday’s whole zone. Pre-print grind, no decision yet.

What I’m Watching

ES is the give-back read into CPI. Globex broke the two-session 7412 to 7420 cluster from below and rolled into today VAL 7402.50. Sitting 7403 right on it. The bull-case is 7402 holds, CPI prints in line, and the reclaim works back through 7411 today POC, 7421 yesterday close, 7428 yesterday high cluster. Above 7428 the upside reopens through 7450 week VAH and 7486 today expected top with the 7507 expected ceiling in clean air. The bear-case is 7402 fails on a hot print, 7392 yesterday low cracks, and the staircase opens through 7282 prev week VAL where the real conversation was, down to 7211 prev month VAH and 7160 prev month POC. Don’t fade the print without confirmation.

NQ is whether the roll has legs or 29121 is the bid. Monday closed at the highs, Globex shed 218 to test 29121 and bounced to 29130. Sitting below today VAL 29162 with session VWAP 29275 well above. The bull-case is the reclaim of 29162 today VAL works back into 29220 today POC and the 29303 Globex high cluster, with 29346 today VAH and 29400 week POC gating fresh upside toward 29455 today expected high. The bear-case is 29162 stays a cap from above, 29121 Globex low fails, and the cascade opens through 29001 prev week VAH, then air to 28670 prev week POC and 27880 May POC where the volume parked, eventually 27400 April POC if the trend actually cracks. Sixteen straight green and the first real overnight roll. Mag7 keeps doing the work or the trend pauses here.

CL is the cleanest read on the board. Yesterday closed 94.91 and Globex ripped seven bucks back through 100 to 102.05. Sitting 101.66 right inside today’s value. The bull-case is the reclaim sticks, 100 flips to floor, and the upside opens to 102.13 prev week VAH then 104.24 May VAH where the multi-week ceiling lives, with 106.76 prev week high as the next major test above. The bear-case is 100 fails from above, the rip rolls back into the prev week range, and 99 today VAL, 98 week POC, 96.68 week VAL catch the fade. Below 96 the prev wk POC 95 and yesterday close 94.91 reload the staircase down toward 89.70 prev month POC. Three weeks of $4 to $7 overnight whips and counting. Tomorrow’s EIA is the override on every CL trade. Don’t fade a Globex extreme without a signal.

GC is whether 4692 was the give-back floor or the start of a deeper unwind. Sitting 4708 between today VAL 4695 and yesterday VAL 4716. The bull-case is 4695 holds, the reclaim of 4716 works, and the upside rebuilds back through 4729 session VWAP, 4734 yesterday POC, 4760 yesterday high, with 4775 prev week high as the structural gate above. The bear-case is 4695 fails on a CPI-driven yield rip, 4692 Globex low cracks, and 4688 prev month VAL is the next test. Below 4688 the air opens to 4584 prev week VAL where the long crowd from the April peak either defends or starts puking inventory. If equities crack on a hot print, gold should find a bid. If the print confirms cool, gold stays heavy.

The Calendar

- 7:30 AM CT, CPI / Core CPI (April)

- 10:00 AM CT, Total Household Debt Q1

- 12:00 PM CT, Fed Goolsbee speech

- 1:00 PM CT, Monthly Budget Statement / 10-Year Note Auction

- 3:30 PM CT, API Crude Oil Stock Change

The Plan

7402 today VAL, the line Globex rolled into. Above 7402 holds we target 7411 today POC, then 7417 session VWAP, then 7420 yesterday POC and 7421 close cluster, with 7428 yesterday high as the line above. Above 7428 we extend through 7450 week VAH and the 7486 today expected top in clean air. Below 7402 fails and 7392 yesterday low cracks first, then air opens to 7282 prev week VAL and 7160 April POC where the real volume sits.

The Bracket: Trigger 7402 (today VAL, the line Globex rolled into). Above 7402 holds the cascade runs 7411 today POC, 7420 yesterday POC, 7428 yesterday high, 7450 week VAH, 7486 expected high. Below 7402 fails through 7392 yesterday low, then air to 7282 prev week VAL, 7160 April POC. Voided by chop in 7395 to 7410 through the print with no clean break.

29162 today VAL is the reclaim line. Above 29162 holds we target 29220 today POC, then 29275 session VWAP, then 29303 Globex high. If the Globex high reclaims we go for 29346 today VAH and 29400 week POC stacked just above, with 29455 today expected high gating open air toward 29824 expected ceiling. Below 29162 stays a cap from above and 29121 Globex low fails, the staircase opens through 29001 prev week VAH, 28670 prev week POC, then 27880 May POC where the real volume sits, with 27400 April POC the structural floor below. The first real overnight roll of the run. Don’t fight the print.

The Bracket: Trigger 29162 (today VAL, the reclaim line). Above 29162 holds the cascade runs 29220 today POC, 29303 Globex high, 29346 today VAH, 29400 week POC, 29455 expected high. Below 29162 fails through 29121 Globex low, 29001 prev week VAH, then air to 28670 prev week POC, 27880 May POC, 27400 April POC. Voided by chop in 29130 to 29200 through the print with no clean break.

100 the reclaim line. Above 100 holds we target 101.35 today POC, then 102.05 Globex high stacked with 102.13 prev week VAH, then 102.59 expected ceiling as the structural cap. Above 102.59 the upside opens to 104.24 May VAH where the multi-week ceiling lives, with 106.76 prev week high as the wider cap. Below 100 fails and 99 the round number cracks first, then 98 week POC, then 96.68 week VAL is the staircase. Below 96 the 95 prev week POC and 94.91 yesterday close reload the deeper test toward 89.70 prev month POC. EIA Wednesday is the override.

The Bracket: Trigger 100 (the line Globex reclaimed through, today’s pivot). Above 100 holds the cascade runs 101.35 today POC, 102.05 Globex high, 102.13 prev week VAH, 102.59 expected high, 104.24 May VAH. Below 100 fails through 99 round, 98 week POC, 96.68 week VAL, then deeper to 95 prev week POC, 94.91 yesterday close, 89.70 April POC. Voided by chop in 100 to 102 through API at 3:30 with no clean break.

4695 today VAL is the line. Above 4695 holds we target 4708 current spot, then 4716 yesterday VAL, 4729 session VWAP, then 4734 yesterday POC. Above 4737 yesterday VAH we extend toward 4741 today VAH and the 4760 yesterday high gate. Above 4760 the upside reopens to 4775 prev week high and 4812 April POC where the real overhead volume sits. Below 4695 fails and 4692 Globex low cracks, then 4688 prev month VAL catches the first real downside test. Past 4688 the structural air opens to 4584 prev week VAL where the long crowd holding 153,000 net long either defends or starts puking inventory.

The Bracket: Trigger 4695 (today VAL, the line). Above 4695 holds the cascade runs 4716 yesterday VAL, 4729 VWAP, 4734 yesterday POC, 4760 yesterday high, 4775 prev week high, 4812 April POC. Below 4695 fails through 4692 Globex low, 4688 prev month VAL, then air to 4584 prev week VAL. Voided by chop in 4695 to 4715.

The White Van Stuff

Equities positioning still leans bullish but the cage tightened overnight. ES sits between the 7400 nearest below and the 7475 today’s cap with daily expected range plus or minus 0.95% (about 70 handles, 7366 to 7507). NQ sits below the 29100 same-day floor with daily expected range plus or minus 1.36% (about 400 points, 29023 to 29824). Crude has same-day structure at the 101 reclaim cap stacked with the 100 all-expiry call ceiling, and is sitting at the upper edge of the daily 93.55 to 102.59 expected band. Gold’s daily band sits 4658 to 4798 with current 4708 right under the 4715 same-day pivot and the 4750 today’s magnet above.

ES sits 7403 right at the 7400 nearest below where positioning anchors price. Above 7400 the 7425 nearby above is the first test, then 7440 and 7450 heavy interest stack ahead of the 7475 today’s cap. Past 7475 the 7500 structural call ceiling caps the daily band, then 7507 expected ceiling tops the upside before the 7525 and 7550 heavy interest in clean air. Below price the 7370 same-day magnet and 7366 today expected low form the lower band with 7350 today’s put floor right beneath. Past 7350 the 7325, 7300, and the 7220 magnet level cascade through to the 7000 structural floor far below. Daily band about 70 handles either side.

NQ sits 29130 right at the 29100 today’s put floor where positioning anchors price from below. Above price the 29250 nearby above leads into the 29400 heavy interest, then 29500 nearby above sits ahead of the 29600 today’s cap. Past 29600 the 29750 heavy interest and 29824 expected ceiling stack ahead of the 30000 structural call ceiling in clean air above. Below 29100 the 29023 today expected low catches first, then 28975 same-day magnet sits in the 28900 / 28850 lower options band where the standard floor lives. Below 28850 the 27740 magnet level is the deeper structural anchor. Daily band about 400 points either side.

Crude options now have the 100 all-expiry call ceiling and the 101 same-day cap. Both got cleared in Globex with price sitting 101.66 between the 101 cap and the 102.59 expected ceiling. Above 102.59 the 103, 105, and 105.50 heavy interest cluster opens as the air pocket where the prev week supply lives. Below 101 the 100 line flips from above to support (the first reclaim test on any fade), then the 98.50 today’s put floor catches. Past 98 the 94.50 magnet level and 93.55 today expected low cascade into the 92 structural floor. The reclaim of the 100 line is the day’s binary into EIA tomorrow.

Gold’s options structure sits in a tight band between the 4715 today’s pivot (now above price) and the 4750 nearby above. Above 4715 the 4750 nearby above leads into 4775 heavy interest, then 4798 expected ceiling stacks with the 4800 structural call ceiling at the same line. Past 4800 the 4825 and 4850 heavy interest sit in the upper expected band. Below price the 4700 nearest below is the first test, then 4675 nearby below catches before 4658 today expected low. Past 4658 the 4650 heavy interest and 4645 magnet level cascade through 4625, 4600, and eventually the 4450 structural floor. Daily band about 70 handles either side.

Pressure is a privilege. Maybe we get some vol soon before summer. A trader can only hope.

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The Tape

ES put in a trend day up Friday, closing at 7421 right against the 7428 session high. Value built between 7412 VAL and 7421.75 VAH with POC at 7420. The upper third of the range took all the business. Globex opened at 7413, pushed to 7420.75 and is sitting at 7414 right against today’s developing POC at 7412. Inside Friday’s value, no decision yet, the digestion line. Two sessions of agreement at 7412-7420 is the read.

NQ was the leader. Friday opened at 28878 and closed at 29339, with the POC at 29285 setting the floor for any pullback. Globex pushed to 29389 overnight, ticks above Friday’s high, and we’ve leaked back to 29308. Back inside Friday’s value at 29127-29339. Sixteen sessions of green in this name. Hard to fight that.

CL got the face ripped off. Friday closed at 94.91 inside a tight 93.91-96.18 day after a brutal prior week. Week opened at 100.29 (gap up to retest 100) and immediately got walked to 96.59 low. Currently 97.04 right at today’s VAL. Every push above 100 has been sold for three weeks running. Crude is doing what crude does.

GC gave some back. Friday closed at 4733 right at the POC inside a 4710-4760 day. Globex opened at 4679 with a fade and tagged 4655 low before buyers stepped in. Currently 4703 right against today’s POC at 4700. Sitting below Friday’s whole value area at 4716-4738. Digestion not breakdown.

What I’m Watching

ES sits on Friday’s high cluster. The bull-case is acceptance above 7420 reopens the 7486 daily expected top and prices in fresh highs. The bear-case is rejection of the 7420 stack sends us back into Friday’s range body at 7407 today VAL, 7392 Friday low, eventually 7351 1D min. Two consecutive sessions have built POC right around 7412-7420. That’s where the market wants to do business, and the auction either accepts higher or rolls back. Light calendar today means the tape decides at the open. Don’t fight a trend day, don’t chase a rotation day.

NQ is the runaway train this month. Friday tagged 29340 and Globex pushed to 29389 before backing off. The bull-case is acceptance above 29345 today POC and we’re pricing in fresh ATH zone with 29500 Monday cap the first real test and 29716 today’s expected top right behind. The bear-case is 29320 session VWAP breaks and the tape rolls back into Friday’s body, with 29291 today VAL, 29225 today low, 29127 Friday VAL is the staircase. Sixteen sessions of green tells you the trend, the question is when it pauses. Honest to god, this thing has gone vertical and the screen will be there tomorrow.

CL is the cleanest read on the board. The 100 line capped Sunday’s spike again. Third week in a row that’s the rejection ceiling. The bull-case is 98 today POC holds and we work back to 99.10 then take another swing at the 100 line that won’t break. The bear-case is 98 fails, 97.13 today VAL and 96.59 Globex low open up and we’re back testing the 95.36 Friday POC zone. Tuesday API and Wednesday EIA inventory are the catalysts on the horizon. Until then the tape consolidates after the overnight flush.

GC is digesting Friday’s reach toward 4760. The bull-case is 4700 today POC holds and we rebuild back into Friday’s value at 4716-4733. That’s the line that broke and the level price has to reclaim. The bear-case is 4700 fails and 4675 today VAL, 4655 Globex low, the 4652 expected floor cascade open up. That’s a 50 handle slide into the lower 1D band. With no major data drop today gold is a sentiment trade. If equities hold the highs gold drifts. If equities crack gold catches a bid.

The Calendar

Light day. Existing Home Sales for April at 1:00 PM CT (after open, before close, won’t move the tape on its own). Treasury bill auctions after that. No major data drops, no Fed speakers. The tape decides.

The Plan

7412 today POC is the digestion line. Above 7412 we target 7417 today VAH, then 7420 Friday POC and the 7421 close cluster, 7428 Friday high which lines up with 7427 prev week VAH. If that cluster breaks the path opens to 7486 1D max with open air above. Below 7412 fails and 7407 today VAL, 7392 Friday low cap the first slide. Then it’s air to 7282 prev week VAL and 7160 April POC where the real volume sits. Light day, the tape decides at the open.

The Bracket: Trigger 7412 (today POC and Friday VAL, the digestion line). Above 7412 holds the cascade runs 7417 today VAH, 7420 Friday POC, 7428 Friday high, 7427 prev week VAH, 7486 upside expected. Below 7412 fails through 7407 today VAL, 7392 Friday low, then air to 7282 prev week VAL, 7160 April POC. Voided by chop between 7410 and 7418 through midday with no clean break.

29320 session VWAP is the line the tape’s coiling around. Above 29320 holds we target 29345 today POC, 29340 Friday high cluster, 29389 Globex high. If 29389 breaks we go for 29500 session ceiling then 29716 expected ceiling. Below 29320 fails and we target 29291 today VAL, 29285 Friday POC, 29127 Friday VAL is the staircase. Below 29127 there’s air down to 28670 prev week POC and 27400 April POC where the real volume sits. Don’t fight the trend day.

The Bracket: Trigger 29320 (session VWAP, the line the tape’s coiling around). Above 29320 holds the cascade runs 29345 today POC, 29389 Globex high, 29500 session ceiling, 29716 expected ceiling. Below 29320 fails through 29291 today VAL, 29127 Friday VAL, then air to 28670 prev week POC, 27400 April POC. Voided by chop between 29300 and 29360 through the first hour with no acceptance either side.

98 today POC. Above 98 we target 99.10 today VAH, then 100 the rejection cap, 100.19 expected high. If 100 breaks we get the fourth weekly swing at 102.13 prev week VAH where the real cap sits. Below 98 fails and 97.13 today VAL, 96.59 Globex low, 95.36 Friday POC are the staircase. Below 95 there’s air down to 90.31 prev week VAL and 89.70 April POC. EIA Wednesday is the override.

The Bracket: Trigger 98 (today POC, the session anchor after the overnight flush). Above 98 holds the cascade runs 99.10 today VAH, 100 rejection cap, 100.19 expected high, 102.13 prev week VAH. Below 98 fails through 97.13 today VAL, 96.59 Globex low, 95.36 Friday POC, 90.31 prev week VAL, 89.70 April POC. Voided by chop in 97.50-98.50 through Tuesday API.

4700 today POC, the line the Globex bounce held. Above 4700 we target 4705 today VAH, 4716 Friday VAL, 4733 Friday POC magnet, 4760 Friday high. If 4760 breaks we extend to 4775 prev week high then 4812 April POC where the real overhead volume sits. Below 4700 fails and 4684 VWAP, 4675 today VAL, 4655 Globex low are next. Below 4655 the floor opens to 4584 prev week VAL. Your bet’s as good as mine on the precious.

The Bracket: Trigger 4700 (today POC, the line the Globex bounce held). Above 4700 holds the cascade runs 4705 today VAH, 4716 Friday VAL, 4733 Friday POC, 4760 Friday high, 4775 prev week high, 4812 April POC. Below 4700 fails through 4684 VWAP, 4675 today VAL, 4655 Globex low, 4584 prev week VAL. Voided by chop in 4690-4710 with no event on the tape.

The White Van Stuff

Equities positioning is still as bullish as it gets. ES sits below the 7415 session cap with expected range 7351-7486, plus or minus 67 points. NQ is sitting between today’s POC at 29345 and the 29500 Monday cap, expected band 28948-29716, plus or minus 384 points. Crude has same-day structure all stacked at 99 from Friday’s lower close with expected range 90.65-100.19, on either side of 4.77 handles. Gold has same-day levels around 4680-4690 that got run through by Friday’s rally, daily band 4652-4788, a range of 70 handles. Light calendar today means the options levels likely set the cage.

ES is sitting right against the session ceiling at 7415 which converges with Friday’s 7421 close cluster. Heavy options interest stacks at 7425, 7430, 7450 and 7475. That’s the cascade ceiling above price if the digestion line at 7412 holds. The call ceiling at 7400 is below price now and acts as the floor of the call-dominated structure. Below price, heavy interest at 7375, 7350, 7300 and the same-day expected low at 7351 paint a 60-point downside cage before the 7275 put floor comes in. Daily expected range is roughly either side at 67 points on either side. Call this a 1% expected day.

NQ blew through its all-expiry call ceiling at 29000 weeks ago. The upside structure now is the 0DTE ceiling at 29500 with daily expected high at 29716 right behind. Above 29500 the heavy interest stairway runs 29750 then the big 30000 cluster. Below price, the 29300 zone is heavy with options interest and lines up with today’s POC. That’s the magnet. Below 29300 the cage opens up to 28948 session floor, then 28900, 28750. That’s a 600-point downside slide before the 28690 same-day magnet catches. Daily expected range of 768 points tells you the options crowd is pricing in real movement either way.

Crude options structure points to a 4.77-handle cage today. The 99 session cap and 100 call ceiling sit right where Sunday’s Globex spike got rejected. That’s three handles of dense options resistance from current spot. Above 100 there’s air to 103 where the next heavy interest cluster sits. Below price, the same-day floor is 95.50 with the magnet at 94.50 in Friday’s POC zone, and 90.65 1D min is the wider boundary. The daily max basically matches Friday’s high at 100.19, which means the options crowd doesn’t think we re-take 100 today, while the floor structure suggests buyers come in 1-2 handles below current.

Gold’s same-day structure got blown through by Friday’s run. The same-day ceiling, magnet and floor are all sitting 15-25 handles below current price, which means they flip from resistance into support today. The bigger read is the all-expiry call ceiling at 4789 right against the 4788 daily expected high. That’s a 90-handle cage to the upside. Heavy options interest stacks at 4739, 4764, 4814 and 4839 if we break above the call ceiling. Downside, 4664 heavy interest then 4652 expected floor define the daily floor. About 50 handles below current. The options crowd is positioned for chop in this 90-handle band with the bias still slightly upside down given the structure flip.

Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. And sellers continue to fucking get punched in the mouth. Good Luck This Week.

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The Tape

ES Wednesday opened 7331 right at the gap and ground to a fresh 7396 high, closing 7386.75 just under it. POC 7365, VAH 7378, VAL 7327. Globex held the trend in a tight 7389 to 7410 cage with price now 7397 just under the 7400 round. Acceptance, not chop.

NQ Wednesday opened 28389 above the prior session, ranged 28336 to 28725.75 fresh, and closed 28710 right at the highs. POC 28573, VAH 28607, VAL 28411. Globex extended further to 28814.5 fresh, sitting 28729 right at session VWAP. Mag7 doing what Mag7 does.

CL Wednesday opened 95.42 after Tuesday’s spike to 88.66 and back, ranged 94.33 to 97.34, closed 95.37 right on POC 95. VAH 95.83, VAL 94.71. Globex took out every floor in sequence and printed 91.33 fresh low, sitting 91.94. The unwind didn’t take a day off.

GC Wednesday opened 4680 above Tuesday’s value, ranged 4679 to 4729, closed 4703 mid-range. POC 4695, VAH 4711.7, VAL 4688.4. Globex blew through every prior daily high and printed 4763.6 fresh, sitting 4748.7 right at the projected high. Gold doesn’t care.

What I’m Watching

ES is the digestion read. Wednesday opened the gap, ground to fresh top, and Globex coiled tight overnight inside a 22-handle cage. Price sits 7397 right at today POC 7394 with the 7400 cap stacked just above. Bull-case: 7394 holds as the magnet, 7400 cracks, and the upside opens to 7410 Globex high into 7457 today expected high into 7500 next round. Bear-case: 7394 fails, 7388 today VAL cracks, and the staircase opens through 7365 Wednesday POC, 7327 Wednesday VAL, 7300 Month VAH (the cap that broke yesterday), 7287 Week POC stacked with 7280 Month POC.

NQ is whether the new ATH holds from above or 28750 caps the move. Wednesday closed 28710 at the highs and Globex extended to 28814.5 before fading back inside today’s value. Bull-case: 28735 holds, 28750 reclaims, the 28814 Globex high prints again with 29000 ceiling and 29086 expected top above. Bear-case: 28735 fails, today VAL 28666 cracks, 28573 Wednesday POC opens the staircase through 28435 Week VAH. Past 28435 the 28144 Month VAH and 28127 Week POC catches, with 27880 Month POC the deeper test.

CL is whether 93 today POC reclaims or the unwind extends. Wednesday closed 95.37 right on POC and Globex took out every level on the way to 91.33 fresh, sitting 91.94. Bull-case: 93 reclaims and the structure heals through 94.5 magnet, 94.71 Wednesday VAL, 95 Wednesday POC, with 100 round and 102 Week POC stacked above as the multi-week ceiling. Bear-case: 93 stays a cap from above, 91.51 today VAL cracks, 91.33 Globex low fails, 89.70 Prev month POC opens with 85.70 the next structural floor beneath.

GC is whether the rip extends to 4787 or the projected high caps it. Wednesday closed 4703 mid-range and Globex extended to 4763.6 fresh, settling 4748.7 right at the projected ceiling. Bull-case: 4745 holds as the pivot, 4763 Globex high prints again, 4787 call cap breaks, and the upside opens to 4812 (Prev month POC) and 4844 (Prev month VAH), air toward the 4917 cycle peak. Bear-case: 4745 fails, today VAL 4716 cracks, 4695 Wednesday POC opens through 4673 Month VAH, then 4658 Prev week VAH and 4630 Prev week POC catches, with 4570 (Week POC stacked with Month POC) the deeper test.

The White Van Stuff

The white van is up to its eyeballs again. ES is sitting on the 7400 ceiling where the call cap and today’s pin stack on the same line. The ceiling is the level. NQ printed fresh ATH 28814 above the 28750 daily lid and faded back inside, sitting 28729 below the cap. CL is below every options floor from Wednesday with the magnet 94.5 above and 90 today’s put floor as the next floor. GC ripped through the 4737 daily ceiling on the way to 4763, sitting 4748 at the day’s projected high of 4748.75. Daily expected ranges plus or minus 0.91% on ES (67 handles) and 1.29% on NQ (370). Three of four instruments are at or beyond the upper edge of expected, with crude below the lower edge the whole night.

ES is sitting 7397 under the 7400 ceiling where the call cap, today’s pin, and the heavy interest cluster all stack. Above 7400 the 7425 nearby cluster catches first, then 7450 heavy interest stacks ahead of the 7457 today expected high. Past 7457 the 7475 and 7500 heavy interest pair sit in the upper expected range. Below 7397 the 7380 nearby below catches at the upper edge of Wednesday’s value, then 7375 nearest below. Past 7375 the 7350 heavy interest cluster catches, then 7340 daily magnet, then 7322 today expected low at the 7320 floor band. Below 7320 the 7300 and 7290 heavy interest pair opens the deeper cascade. The 7400 line is the day’s binary.

NQ printed 28814.5 fresh in Globex above the 28750 daily lid and faded back inside, sitting 28729 between that line and the 28700 nearby below. Above 28750 the 28800 heavy interest cluster catches first, then 29000 ceiling is the structural cap, then 29086 today expected high tops the daily band. Past 29086 the 29250 / 29300 heavy interest pair sits as the air pocket. Below 28729 the 28700 nearby below stacks with the heavy interest right at price, then 28613 / 28600 cluster catches. Past that 28570 same-day magnet, then 28500 nearest below, then 28400 heavy interest. Below 28400 the 28347 today expected low and 28325 floor cluster opens the structural cliff. The 28750 line is the day’s question. Sustained acceptance above re-prints 28814 and opens 29000.

CL is below every options floor from Wednesday with the magnet 94.5, the same-day magnet 93.75, the 95 heavy interest, and the 96 nearby above all stacked overhead as resistance. Sitting 91.94 between the 92 nearest above and the 90 floor band. Above 91.94 the 92 nearest above catches first, then 93 today’s pivot, then 93.75 daily magnet and 94.5 magnet level form a cluster. Past 94.5 the 95 heavy interest, then 96 nearby above, then the 100 / 100.09 ceiling cluster (call cap, today’s pin, and the daily expected top stacked) caps the entire reclaim cascade. Below price the 90.07 today expected low and 90 floor catches first. Past 90 the 89.5 / 87 / 86 / 85 staircase opens the deeper structural floor where the long crowd from prev-month value lives. Crude has unwound every level it built since the geopolitical bid.

GC is sitting 4748.7 at the day’s projected high with the 4737 daily ceiling already broken from below. The only ceilings above price now are 4762 heavy interest, 4787 call cap, and 4812 air-pocket cap. The rip cleared the entire near-term option ladder in two sessions. Below price the 4737 line (now broken from below) flips to support if the bounce holds, then 4712 heavy interest catches. Past 4712 the 4687 nearest below is the next test, then 4657 same-day magnet stacks today’s put floor and the same-day pivot on the same line. Below 4657 the 4615 today is expected low catches, then 4572 magnet level opens the deeper cascade. Past 4572 the chart is air through to 4438 floor. Gold has run through every overhead in two days.

The Calendar

- 7:30 AM CT, Initial Jobless Claims

- 7:30 AM CT, Nonfarm Productivity Q1 Preliminary

- 7:30 AM CT, Unit Labour Costs Q1 Preliminary

The Plan

7394 today POC. Above 7394 the upside opens to 7400 cap into 7410 Globex high into 7457 expected top. Below 7394 fails and the staircase opens through 7388 today VAL, 7365 Wednesday POC, 7327 Wednesday VAL. Lose 7327 and 7300 Month VAH (the cap that broke yesterday) is back in play, with 7287 Week POC stacked above 7280 Month POC. The whole month’s value lives below 7300 and losing it puts the gap fully back inside April’s range.

28735 today POC. Above 28735 we look for 28750 daily lid into 28814 Globex high into 29086 expected top. Below 28735 fails and the staircase opens through 28666 today VAL, 28573 Wednesday POC, then 28435 Week VAH. Past 28435 the 28144 Month VAH and 28127 Week POC band catches, with 27880 Month POC the structural floor. The breakout cage holds while 28435 holds. Losing it cracks the multi-week trend.

93 today POC, the line price was rejected from. Above 93 reclaims and the structure heals through 94.71 Wednesday VAL, 95 Wednesday POC, 95.83 Wednesday VAH. If 95.83 reclaims, we go for 100 cap and the 102 Week POC band beyond as the multi-week ceiling. Below 93 stays a cap from above and the leak extends through 91.51 today VAL, 91.33 Globex low. Lose 91.33 and 89.70 Prev month POC opens deep, with 85.70 Prev month VAL the next structural floor. Headline tape runs every day.

4745 today POC. Above 4745 the upside opens to 4763 Globex high into 4787 call ceiling. If 4787 breaks we go for 4812 (Prev month POC) and 4844 (Prev month VAH), air toward the 4917 cycle peak above. Below 4745 fails and the cascade opens through 4716 today VAL, 4695 Wednesday POC, 4673 Month VAH. Past 4673 the 4658 Prev week VAH and 4630 Prev week POC catches, with 4570 (Week POC stacked with Month POC) the deeper structural floor.

Don’t get caught watching the paint dry.

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Yesterday’s Sessions

ES Tuesday opened 7267.50, ranged 7264.25 to 7289.50, closed 7288. POC 7280 with VAH 7285.50 and VAL 7273.25. Twenty-five handle range, value glued to the highs, the seller never showed up. Closed within a tick of the day high and 13 below Friday’s record. Tape wanted to leak higher and the only thing keeping it pinned was the calendar. The leak got resolved overnight.

NQ Tuesday opened 27988.50, ranged 27971 to 28188.25, closed 28135.25. POC 28127 with VAH 28153 and VAL 28061. Fresh top at 28188 cleared Monday’s 28006 print and the same-day 28100 cluster on the same trip. Value rebuilt above the 28000 line that capped the rally for two months and held there into the close. Mag7 carrying it. Same story, cleaner print.

CL Tuesday opened 103.22, ranged 101.07 to 103.37, closed 101.78. POC 102.20 with VAH 102.72 and VAL 101.76. Got rejected at the 103 line all session, puked through 102 mid-afternoon, and never recovered. Closed 70 cents off the day low after losing the 102.50 pivot, the 102 cap, and Monday’s 101.53 print on the way down. The give-back was already in motion before the gap showed up. Slow leak before the cliff.

GC Tuesday opened 4572.30, ranged 4563.70 to 4597.60, closed 4570.30. POC 4589 with VAH 4595 and VAL 4576.90. Tested 4597 in the morning, faded the 4600 round, drifted back to the magnet 4570 by the close. Quiet inside-day, nothing decided either way. The long crowd was waiting for either a 4600 break or a 4530 break and got neither. The decision got made for them at midnight.

The Overnight

ES opened Globex 7308.50 above Friday’s old top, ripped to 7366.25 fresh, and faded into 7331. Today’s POC 7309, VAH 7342.25, VAL 7284.75 already established a wide cage. Session VWAP 7328.85 sits within a hair of price. The 7300 ceiling that capped every rally this year cracked on the open and now sits under price as overhead support. The 65-handle Globex range gave back 35 of it before stabilizing. The line that mattered for two months is now a floor.

NQ opened Globex 28334.75 (already 200 above Tuesday’s close), ripped to 28634.25 fresh, faded back to 28403. Today POC 28360, today VAH 28512.50, today VAL 28250, session VWAP 28400.99. The 28500 same-day cap broke once but couldn’t hold from above. Sitting at session VWAP between today VAL 28250 and today VAH 28512. The breakout structure built fast and the upper half of the cage is the live test.

CL opened Globex 100.39, traded one tick of acceptance, spiked down to 88.66, then bought back 8 dollars to 96.51 currently. Today POC 101, today VAH 101.45, today VAL 97.27, session VWAP 95.09. The flush printed and got bid back inside five hours. Price now sits between today VAL 97.27 above and the 95 zone where the bounce caught its bid. Everything from 88.66 up to 102 was bought back in one session.

GC opened Globex 4660, dipped to 4655.60, ripped to 4734.60 (above the April top, the May high, and the prior-week 4728 print), faded to 4684. Today’s POC 4712, VAH 4734.60, VAL 4667.80, session VWAP 4678.44. Cleared the Tuesday 4597 high, the 4620 prior daily ceiling, the 4673 cap, and the 4728 prior-week high all on one trip. Price now inside today’s value with POC 4712 just overhead and VWAP 4678 underneath.

The Map

ES gapped 12 above Friday’s record, ripped 65 more, then faded 35 into today VAH 7342. Today’s session built a wide cage with POC 7309 and VAL 7284.75 already in place. The 7300 line that capped every rally this year (also the May VAH) now sits under price as overhead support. Above 7331 the upside opens with today VAH 7342 as the first test. Past 7342 the 7350 nearest above and the 7354 intraday ceiling lead into the 7366 Globex high, and the 7411 stretch top sits in the air pocket above all of it. Below 7331 the 7309 today POC and Globex open form the cushion, and 7300 Friday’s old print is the pivot. Lose 7300 and 7289 Tuesday high goes first, then 7285 Tuesday VAH gates the 7280 cluster where Tuesday POC sits with Month POC. Past that the 7273 Tuesday VAL where the bid showed up is next, then 7269 Week VAH below it. Once 7237 Month VAL cracks we are back inside April’s range and the gap fully fails.

NQ ripped 300 from the 28334 Globex open to print 28634, then settled back to VWAP 28400 after rejecting 28500 from above. Today VAH 28512, today POC 28360, and today VAL 28250 mapped a clean breakout cage above Tuesday’s entire structure. The 28500 cap that held two weeks of grind broke once but failed to hold. Above 28403 the 28500 reclaim is the next test. Past 28500 today VAH 28512 and the 28634 Globex high sit below the 28814 stretch top. Below 28403 the 28360 today POC cushions, then 28250 marks the breakout floor. Lose 28250 and the 28188 Tuesday high (also the Week VAH and the old all-time) is back in play, then the 28127 cluster where Tuesday POC stacks with Week POC catches next. Past that 28061 Tuesday VAL gives way, and the deeper 27925 Month VAH and 27880 Month POC band is where the breakout actively fails.

Crude went thirteen dollars from the 100.39 Globex open to the 88.66 panic print, then bounced 8 dollars in five hours to 96.51 currently. Today POC 101, today VAH 101.45, today VAL 97.27, session VWAP 95.09. The auction rebuilt fast and value is concentrating right under Tuesday’s range from below. The 95 zone is where the bounce caught its bid; price is now testing whether that level holds as the day’s pivot. Above 96.51 the 97.27 today VAL is up first, then 100 round and 101 today POC where Tuesday’s range begins. Past 101 the 101.78 Tuesday close goes first, then 102.20 Tuesday POC stacked with Week POC, then 102.72 Tuesday VAH. Above all of it 105.26 Week VAH (broken) caps the entire reclaim cascade. Below 96.51 the 95.09 session VWAP cushions, then 89.70 prev-month POC and the 88.66 spike print sit as the floor. Lose that print and the chart shows nothing until 85, with prev-month VAL 85.70 right at it.

Gold ripped 178 from the 4556 Globex low to 4734 Globex high, then settled back to 4684 currently. Today POC 4712, today VAH 4734.60, today VAL 4667.80, session VWAP 4678.44. Value built fast in the middle of the gap. Cleared the Tuesday 4597 high, the 4620 prior daily ceiling, the 4673 April cap, and the 4728 prior-week high all on the same move. Above 4684 the 4712 today POC is the next stop, then 4728 prev-week high sits ahead of the 4734 Globex print, and the 4786 standard cap sits above all of it. Below price the 4678 session VWAP cushions, and 4673 April cap is the pivot from above. Lose 4673 and 4667 today VAL cracks first, then 4658 prev-week VAH catches, then 4630 prev-week POC. Past those the 4597 Tuesday high comes back into play, then the 4590 zone where Month POC sits with Week POC, with 4589 Tuesday POC right alongside. Once that band breaks the rip retraces back into April’s value entirely.

What I’m Watching

ES is the all-time-high break held from above. The 7300 line that capped two months of rally cracked on the gap and now sits as overhead support. Sitting 7331 with the 7300 to 7366 band as the day’s read. Bull-side: the gap holds, sellers cannot get the fade below 7300 going, and the upside opens to 7342 today VAH, then 7350 nearest above and the 7366 Globex high stretch toward 7411. Bear-side: the 7300 reclaim fails on a hot ADP print, the gap fills back into Tuesday’s range, and the breakout becomes a one-day overshoot. Past 7366 the upside is air; past 7300 the Tuesday cluster from 7289 down to 7273 is the test. ADP at 7:15 and three Fed speakers stacked through the day pick the side.

NQ is whether the breakout cage holds with 28500 broken-but-not-held. Tuesday closed at the highs after Monday’s 28006 print, tonight extended to 28634. Sitting 28403 with VWAP 28400 right at price. Bull-side: the 28250 floor holds, 28500 reclaims, and 28634 prints again with 28814 above. Bear-side: 28500 reasserts from above, sellers fade the upper half of the cage, and 28250 gives way first, then Tuesday’s old record at 28188, then Tuesday POC at 28127 as the staircase. Mag7 has been the entire move and any large-cap wobble cracks it. Don’t fade the breakout without evidence of failure.

CL is whether the bounce off 88.66 has legs or 95 caps the recovery. Sitting 96.51 after eight dollars of recovery from the panic print. Bull-side: the flush was the bottom, 95 holds as the new pivot, and crude rebuilds toward 100 then 101 over the day. Bear-side: the 95 line becomes resistance from above, sellers fade every reclaim attempt, and 96.51 fails for a re-test of the panic print. EIA crude inventory at 9:30 hits and any meaningful number swings 3 dollars either way. Headline tape stays loud all day. The 95 line is the day’s pivot question.

GC is whether the rip extends or fades into the 4673 cap test. Sitting 4684 right above the 4673 April top. Bull-side: gold holds 4667 today VAL, the 4712 POC pulls price back up, and 4728 then 4734 Globex high prints again with 4786 above. Bear-side: the 4734 was the panic top, the 4673 reclaim fails on a strong ADP print, and the 4620 daily ceiling gives way next, then 4597 Tuesday high comes back into play. If equities keep ripping on the gap, gold’s safety bid gets tested. Watch the dollar reaction at 7:15.

The White Van Stuff

The white van’s day. Three of four instruments redrew their option structure overnight. ES cleared the 7300 ceiling and is sitting above it. NQ punched the 28500 cap but couldn’t hold from above; price now sits between 28500 and the 28250 lower edge. CL got crushed below every option mark and bounced 8 dollars off the spike, sitting 96.51 right under the 97.75 magnet. GC ripped through the 4673 April cap and the 4728 prior-week high, sitting 4684 with 4712 POC just overhead. Daily expected ranges plus or minus 0.92% on ES (67 handles), 1.24% on NQ (350), and 0.5% on GC (~25); CL’s range broke its own calculation overnight. With Globex already covering 65 handles on ES, 300 on NQ, $14 on CL, and $178 on GC, every instrument used most of a day’s range before NY opened. ADP at 7:15 and EIA at 9:30 are the structural events; three Fed speakers fill the gaps.

ES at 7331 with the 7411 stretch top capping the above-price stack. The 7350 nearest above is at price plus 19, then 7354 today’s daily cap (which Globex briefly punched through at 7366) catches first, then 7360 leads into the 7375 and 7400 heavy interest cluster. The 7400 round is the wall above the wall. Below 7331 the 7325 nearby below kicks off the cascade, then 7300 call ceiling reclaim is the structural break level. Past 7300 the 7275 downside target comes up, then 7265 same-day magnet, then 7260 standard floor anchors the band that sits inside Tuesday’s range from above, with 7220 today expected low and 7200 air below that. The 7300 line is the all-time-high break-or-fail question.

NQ at 28403 right between the 28486 daily cap from above and the 28400 same-day cap right at price. The 28500 call ceiling at price plus 97 is already punctured but couldn’t hold above. Past 28500 the 28600 heavy interest catches, then 28700 and 28750 sit below the 28814 stretch top as the structural cap. Below price the 28400 cap is at price minus 3, then 28300 nearby below leads into 28250 downside target. Past 28250 the 28125 same-day magnet catches, then 28000 nearest below cluster opens the breakout floor cascade. Below 28000 the 27950 standard floor and the 27786 today expected low form the cliff.

Crude at 96.51 right under the 97.75 magnet and just above the 95 nearby below. Above price the 100 nearby above is up first, then 102 same-day cap (broken from below) leads into 105 nearest above, then 107.69 today’s daily ceiling (broken from below). Past 107.69 the 108 heavy interest stacks ahead of 109, then 110 call ceiling tops the entire pre-flush option ladder now sitting overhead. Below price the 95 nearby below catches the bounce, then 94 heavy interest sits at the lower options cluster. Past 94 the chart shows nothing until 85 standard floor, with the 88.66 panic print as the spike marker. The 95 line is where today’s pivot lives.

Gold at 4684 with the 4786 call ceiling as the only real ceiling above. Below current the 4637 nearby below catches first, then 4620 today’s daily cap (broken from below), then 4612 downside target. Past 4612 the 4587 nearest below comes up, then 4572 same-day cap (broken), then 4567 magnet, then 4547 same-day magnet, then 4537 same-day floor. The entire pre-rip option ladder now sits deep underneath. Below 4537 the 4517 heavy interest catches, then 4502 and 4497 stack ahead of the 4491 today expected low and the 4437 standard floor structural air gap. The 4673 April cap reclaim is the question; price holds 11 above.

The Calendar

- 8:30 AM CT, Fed Musalem speech

- 9:30 AM CT, EIA Crude Oil Inventory

- 10:30 AM CT, 17-Week Bill Auction

- 12:00 PM CT, Fed Goolsbee speech

- 12:30 PM CT, Fed Hammack speech

What Could Go Wrong

ES gap fails and 7300 reclaim breaks. Sellers come back at the open, the 7331 to 7300 band gets sold, and 7300 cracks for real on a hot ADP print. Past 7300 the 7289 Tuesday high goes, then 7285 Tuesday VAH gates the 7280 zone where Tuesday POC sits with Month POC, then 7273 Tuesday VAL where the bid showed up. Lose 7273 and we are back inside Tuesday’s range, with 7237 Month VAL and 7230 Week POC back in play. The all-time-high overshoot turns into a one-day fakeout and the entire month’s structure resets.

NQ breakout cage cracks at 28250 after the 28500 cap reasserts from above. Past 28500 the 28486 daily cap is the first failed reclaim, then 28400 fails, and 28300 nearby below leads into 28250 today VAL. Lose 28250 and 28200 catches first, then 28188 (Tuesday’s old record and Week VAH) is next, then 28135 Tuesday close, then 28127 Tuesday POC stacked with Week POC opens the deeper cascade and the breakout actively fails. Below 28127 we return to Tuesday’s range and the 28061 Tuesday VAL retests for real.

CL bounce off the panic print fails and 95 caps every reclaim. Past 96.51 the 95.09 session VWAP cushions, then 95 nearby below where the bounce was bought. Below 95 the 94 heavy interest catches, then the spike print sits as the floor. Lose 88.66 and the chart shows nothing until 85 standard floor, with the prev-month 85.7 VAL right at it. Crude has unwound thirty days of geopolitical premium in eight hours and the market is still figuring out where the bottom is.

The Plan

ES: Above 7331 the 7342 today VAH is the first stop, then 7350 nearest above and 7354 daily cap stack ahead of the 7366 Globex high, with the 7411 stretch top above. Hold 7300 (Friday’s old top) keeps the gap alive. Past 7300 the 7289 Tuesday high goes, then 7285 Tuesday VAH gates the 7280 zone where Tuesday POC sits with Month POC, then 7273 Tuesday VAL and 7237 Month VAL below. The 7300 line is the line. ADP picks the side before the bell.

NQ: Above 28403 the 28500 reclaim is the next stop, then 28512 today VAH catches, then 28634 Globex high sits below the 28814 stretch top above. Hold 28250 keeps the breakout structure alive. Lose 28250 and 28200 catches first, then 28188 Tuesday high (Week VAH and old record) is next, then 28135 Tuesday close, then 28127 Tuesday POC stacked with Week POC opens the staircase. Past that 28061 Tuesday VAL and 27950 standard floor sit below. The Mag7 ride hangs in the balance. Don’t fade the gap into the bell without confirmation.

CL: Above 96.51 the 97.27 today VAL is the first stop, then 97.75 magnet, then 100 round, then 101 today POC where Tuesday’s range begins. Past 101 the 101.78 Tuesday close and 102.20 Tuesday POC reclaim cluster comes into play. Hold 95 (the bounce line) keeps the recovery alive. Past 95 the 94 heavy interest catches, then 89.70 prev-month POC, then 88.66 spike print, then the 85 line below. The spike print is the floor; the 95 line is the pivot. EIA at 9:30 is the override on every CL trade today.

GC: Above 4684 the 4712 today POC is the next stop, then 4728 prev-week high sits ahead of the 4734 Globex high, with 4786 call ceiling above. Hold 4673 (April cap reclaim) keeps the rip alive. Past 4673 the 4667 today VAL cracks first, then 4658 prev-week VAH catches, then 4630 prev-week POC. Below 4630 the 4597 Tuesday high comes back into play, then 4590 Month POC tied with Week POC, with 4589 Tuesday POC right alongside. The 4673 read is the read. If equities keep ripping on the gap, gold’s safety bid might fade.

My message to anyone selling this thing?

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I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Yesterday’s Sessions

ES Monday opened 7250.50, ranged 7199.25 to 7271, closed 7231.25. POC printed 7230 with VAH 7240.75 / VAL 7200.25. Inside-day character on a Monday after Friday’s 7300.75 ATH print. Buyers showed up at 7199 right at the April POC and reclaimed the rotation. The close at 7231 right on POC and the lack of trend tell you nothing got resolved. That’s not exhaustion. That’s digestion.

NQ Monday opened 27854.50, ranged 27614.50 to 27940.75, closed 27779.75. POC 27775 with VAH 27861 / VAL 27690. The 27622 April high was the breakout retest line and Globex tested 27614 right at it before the bid showed. Textbook breakout retest. Mag7 carrying the weight. Sixteen of seventeen sessions green now.

CL Monday traded the full $5 round trip from 101.53 to 106.76 and closed 105.29. POC 105.59, value 103.52 to 106.75. Wild range, headline-driven again. Closed near the highs but Globex couldn’t hold and the fade lit up overnight. The 99 to 107 cage that defined last week is still the cage. Crude is doing what crude does.

GC Monday opened 4584.30, dragged to 4510.10, bounced to 4527.60 close. POC 4530, value 4513.50 to 4567.90. Broke the 4522 week low intraday, recovered, closed weak. The long crowd took a real punch and three weeks of distribution are still in the rearview. The April peak at 4917 looks more like a lower-high vs the cycle than a fresh top.

The Overnight

ES opened Globex 7239.75, ran to 7269 (right under Monday’s 7271 high), then dipped to 7235.75 (right at Monday’s VAL) and bounced. Currently 7264.75 with today POC 7255, today VAH 7268.25, today VAL 7239.50, session VWAP 7246.25 stacked underneath. Reclaimed Monday’s value cleanly with no real test of the downside. Inventory says buyers showed up early. That’s the bid acting like the bid.

NQ opened Globex 27827.25, dipped to 27818.25, then ripped to 28006 (fresh ATH on the print) and faded modestly. Currently 27990 right under 28000 with today POC 27931, today VAH 27974.25, today VAL 27874.75 already established. Took out Monday’s 27940.75 high AND the 28000 line on the same move. Both extremes of the Globex range printed and only the upside got rejected, barely. Decision tape just like Monday.

CL opened Globex 104.18, ripped to 105.35 on the early bid, then puked to 102.78 before the small bounce. Currently 103.18 and today POC 104.18, today VAH 104.60, today VAL 103.46. Lost Monday’s POC 105.59 cleanly and lost Monday’s VAH 106.75 even more cleanly. Today VWAP and the today’s cap stack at 103, current price below. The Friday rip is being unwound in real time and last week’s overhead supply at 105 to 107 is now overhead resistance.

GC opened Globex 4543 , low 4540.40, high 4577.30, currently 4572.30. Today POC 4565, today VAH 4568.30, today VAL 4544.70, same-day pivot 4556.10. Bounced clean off Monday’s beating and reclaimed today’s cluster. The bear-case scenario from Friday is on pause but not cancelled. The 4522 week low / April low is still the line.

The Map

ES is coiling between today VAH 7268.25 and Monday’s POC 7230 with POC 7255 and session VWAP 7246.25 stacked inside the band. The Globex tested both ends of Monday’s value (7235 low at the bottom of Monday’s range, 7269 just under Monday’s 7271 high) and finished closer to the top. That’s a quiet rebuild where buyers never got tested. Above 7271 (Monday’s high) the runway opens to 7297 expected top and 7300.75 (Friday’s ATH and the structural cap). Above 7300 the upside is air toward today’s call ceiling. Below 7239 (today VAL) the 7235 Globex low is the first test, then 7230 (Monday’s POC, the line the whole month respects, week POC and month POC at the same level) is where the read changes. Below 7230 the 7225 downside target / 7204 (Monday’s VAL) / 7200 today’s put floor staircase opens with 7175 standard floor below.

NQ is in fresh-ATH mode and the breakout retest at 27622 (April high) already happened in Monday’s Globex. Tonight extended cleanly through Monday’s 27940 high AND the 28000 ceiling on the same move. Currently 27990 right under 28000 , today POC 27931, today VAH 27974.25, today VAL 27874.75 already established as the breakout floor structure. The structure changed in 24 hours. Above 28006 (Globex high / new ATH) the runway opens to 28118 expected top, then 28200 / 28250 / 28400 heavy interest stacks above. Below 27974 today VAH the re-acceptance fails and 27875 today VAL is the next test. Below 27875 the 27818 Globex low and 27775 (Monday’s POC, week POC) is the staircase. Below 27775 the 27690 (Monday’s VAL) and 27622 (April breakout retest line) come back into play. Below 27622 the breakout actually fails.

Crude lost Monday’s POC 105.59 and Monday’s VAH 106.75 in Globex with no real fight. Trading inside today’s value at 103.18, below today VAH 104.60 and below today VAL 103.46 already. Today VAH 104.60 is the cap on any reclaim attempt, then 105 / 105.35 (Globex high) / 105.59 (Monday’s POC) is the cluster, then 106 / 106.75 (Monday’s VAH) / 107 spike zone is where last week’s cage cap sits. Below 102.78 (Globex low) the path opens to 101.53 (Monday’s low) and the 100 today’s pivot zone where 99.99 expected low and 95 downside target stack as the staircase. The 94.50 magnet is where crude lived all month before the geopolitical bid. The Friday rip is being unwound in real time.

Gold caught a bid off Monday’s 4510 low and rebuilt the cage. Today VAH 4568.30 / today POC 4565 / same-day pivot 4556.10 cluster is the magnet zone, with Globex high 4577 just above. Above 4577 the bounce extends with today’s cap 4581 and expected top 4586.70 stacked just above. Above 4594 (Monday’s high) the structural rebuild gets serious and 4610 / 4635 heavy interest opens up. Below 4540 (Globex low) the 4530 (Monday’s POC, week POC, the line the whole month respects) cracks and we re-test 4513 (Monday’s VAL) / 4510 (Monday’s low) / 4522 (week low). The 4522 line is where the long crowd holding 153,000 net long either defends or starts puking inventory. Below 4522 we’re in air.

What I’m Watching

ES is the quiet rebuild. Globex held above Monday’s VAL and rebuilt to the upper end of Monday’s range with no fight. Currently 7264.75 and today POC 7255 and session VWAP 7246.25 underneath, today VAH 7268.25 right above. Either ES extends through Monday’s 7271 high toward 7297 expected top and 7300.75 (Friday’s ATH), or sellers come back at the open and 7235 Globex low cracks for the test of 7230 (the line, the 7230 line). The 7230 line stays the read. ISM Services and JOLTS at 9 AM both fire at the same time. Either one picks the side and don’t fade the data print without confirmation.

NQ is whether the ATH holds from above or 28000 becomes the cap for the week. The bull-case is the breakout retest happened Monday at 27622, held, and tonight printed the follow-through at 28006. The bear-case is 28000 was the structural call ceiling for a reason and the options crowd fights it back from below. Currently 27990 right under 28000. Above 28006 the upside opens to 28118 expected high and the 28200 to 28400 cluster cluster. Below 27974 today VAH the re-acceptance fails and 27875 today VAL / 27818 Globex low / 27775 Monday’s POC and week POC is the staircase, then 27622 April breakout retest line below that. Mag7 has been carrying the move. The catalyst into NVDA later this month is the AI tape.

CL is its own animal again. Lost Monday’s POC and Monday’s VAH cleanly with no fight. Today VAH 104.60 is the cap on any reclaim. Either crude holds 102.78 Globex low and rebuilds toward 104 / 105 cluster, or 102.78 cracks for real and the path opens to 101.53 Monday’s low and the 100 today’s pivot zone where 99.99 expected low and 95 downside target sit. The structural shift from last week’s 99-to-107 cage is happening in real time. Crude has refused to extend through 108 all week and now the 105 zone failed too. EIA Wednesday is the only scheduled event but the headline tape runs every day.

GC is whether 4522 holds. The Friday line at 4597 is broken. The Friday magnet at 4565 was tested and reclaimed in today’s value. Monday’s 4510 low went under the week low and recovered. Currently 4572.30 with the today’s cluster (4565 / 4566 / 4568) stacked underneath. Either gold holds 4540 Globex low and grinds back through Monday’s 4594 high toward today’s cap 4581 and expected high 4586.70, or 4530 (the line) cracks and we re-test 4510 (Monday’s low) and 4522 (week low). The 4522 line is the level where 153,000 net long crowd either defends or starts puking inventory. If equities keep ripping, gold stays heavy. If equities crack on a soft print, gold might find its bid.

The White Van Stuff

ES is trading in the 7240 to 7260 zone where positioning is densest, just above today’s cap 7245. The 7275 nearby above is the first test on extension, then 7290 heavy interest, expected high 7297, and 7300 call ceiling (which equals Friday’s actual ATH 7300.75) stack into a wall at the structural top. The 7235 Globex low we already tested sat between today’s cap 7245 and today’s pivot 7230. Below today’s pivot the 7225 downside target / 7220 magnet level / 7200 put floor / standard floor 7175 below. The 7163.50 expected low and 7150 heavy interest are the structural air pocket.

NQ already broke today’s cap 27900 in Globex AND took out the 28000 ceiling on the ATH print. Above 28006 the 28100 nearby above and 28118 expected top stack as the next gate, then heavy interest above above. Below 28000 the 27950 downside target is the first test, then today’s cap 27900 flips into resistance from above for the first time, then 27800 nearby below and today’s pivot 27720 (yesterday’s magnet zone). Magnet level 27620 is the breakout line in plain English . that’s where the structure says the breakout actually fails. Today’s put floor 27500 and 27433 expected low are the structural staircase.

CL is right inside the tight today’s box at 102.50 / 103 with current price 103.18 below the put floor 102.50. The today’s cap 103 is at price and the put floor is 50 cents below. Above 103 the 105 / 109 / 110 / 111 / 112.85 expected top cluster is overhead supply from last week’s spike. Below 102.50 the 100 today’s pivot is the round number break, then expected low 99.99 / 95 below / magnet level 94.50 staircase. The 94.50 magnet is the spot the options crowd thinks crude wants to settle over time and where crude actually lived all month before the geopolitical bid.

GC is trading right under today’s cap 4581 with magnet level 4566 and today’s pivot 4556 underneath. Above 4581 the expected high 4586.70 stacks at the cluster, then 4635 heavy interest above. The all-expiry call ceiling 4785 is way above price and not in play today. Below the magnet 4566 the 4536 nearby below and 4496 downside target are the first tests, then 4486 put floor / 4452 expected low / 4436 standard floor staircase. The 4486 put floor below lines up with the 4500 round number where buyers should defend if 4530 cracks.

The Calendar

- 9:00 AM CT, ISM Services PMI

- 9:00 AM CT, JOLTs Job Openings

- 1:00 PM CT, Fed Bowman speech

- AMD earnings (after the close)

What Could Go Wrong

ES rolls from the quiet Globex rebuild on a hot ISM print and 7239 today VAL cracks for the test of 7235 Globex low and 7230 (the 7230 line, the line). Below 7230 the 7225 downside target / 7204 Monday’s VAL / 7200 put floor and 7175 below as the staircase. The reclaim into Monday’s value flips into a one-day overshoot and the 7160 line we’ve held all month becomes the destination. ISM and JOLTS together provide the catalyst for the move both ways and NFP-week chop sets in.

NQ rolls from the 28006 print on a weak open or a soft earnings reaction and re-tests 28000 from below. Below 27974 today VAH the breakout retest from above fails and 27875 today VAL / 27818 Globex low / 27775 (Monday’s POC) is the staircase. Below 27775 the 27690 Monday’s VAL and 27622 (breakout retest level / structural floor) come back into play. Below 27622 the breakout actually fails and the 27500 put floor zone / 27433 expected low / 27400 (week POC and April POC the structural floor) opens up to a 200-handle air pocket. Mag7 has been carrying the move. A Mag7 wobble cracks it.

Crude’s give-back continues all week and the headline tape stays loud. Either 102.78 Globex low cracks below 102 with sellers behind it and 101.53 Monday’s low / 100 today’s pivot / 99.99 expected low / the 95 zone staircase opens, or the 105 cluster holds again on a ceasefire-headline reversal. Gold’s 4530 line cracks on a continued equity rip and the 153,000 net long crowd starts puking inventory. Below 4530 the Monday’s 4510 low and 4522 week low test for real, and below 4522 we’re in air through 4486 today’s put line to 4452 expected low and 4436 standard floor. The geopolitical premium that built since the 4917 cycle peak fully unwinds.

The Plan

ES: Above 7271 (Monday’s high) the run extends with 7275 nearby above as the first test, then 7290 heavy interest, 7297 expected top, and 7300.75 (Friday’s ATH and structural cap) stack as the wall. Above 7300 the upside is air. Hold 7239 (today VAL) keeps the bid alive and the 7245 today’s cap reclaim plays out. Below 7239 the 7235 Globex low is the next test, then 7230 (the line, month POC) is the level where read changes. Below 7230 the 7225 downside target / 7204 Monday’s VAL / 7200 put floor / standard floor 7175 below. ISM and JOLTS at 9 will pick the side. Don’t fade the print without confirmation.

NQ: Above 28000 (call ceiling) and 28006 (Globex high / new ATH) the breakout extends to 28100 nearby above, 28118 expected top, then the 28200 to 28400 cluster stacks. Above 28250 the upside is open. Hold 27974 (today VAH) for the re-acceptance read, hold 27875 (today VAL) for the breakout structure intact. Below 27875 the slide opens with 27818 Globex low / 27775 (Monday’s POC and week POC) as the floor, then 27690 Monday’s VAL / 27622 (April breakout line) as the staircase. Lose 27622 and the rally has a real problem with 27500 the put floor and 27433 expected low below. AMD is the override on every NQ trade carried into the close.

CL: Above 104.60 (today VAH) the fade fails and 105 / 105.35 (Globex high) / 105.59 (Monday’s POC) is the reclaim test, then 106 / 106.75 (Monday’s VAH) / 107 spike zone where last week’s cage cap sits. Hold 102.78 (Globex low) keeps any cage intact. Below 102.78 the path opens to 101.53 (Monday’s low), then the 100 today’s pivot zone where 99.99 expected low and 95 below stack. Below 100 the 95 downside and 94.50 magnet are the structural air pocket. Headline tape all week, EIA Wednesday is the only scheduled event. Don’t fade a Globex extreme without a real signal.

GC: Above 4577 (Globex high) and 4581 (today’s cap) the bounce extends with 4586.70 expected top, then 4594 (Monday’s high) stacked, then 4610 / 4635 heavy interest above. Hold 4540 (Globex low) keeps the bounce. Below 4540 the 4530 (the 7230 line, the line) is the test, then 4527 Monday’s close / 4513 Monday’s VAL / 4510 Monday’s low / 4522 week low staircase opens. Below 4522 the long crowd holding 153,000 net long starts puking inventory and we’re in air through 4500 / 4486 put floor to 4452 expected low. If equities keep ripping, gold stays heavy. If equities crack, gold might find its bid.

Sellers have no balls. Buy the dip.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

One quick housekeeping note before we go: NinjaTrader just opened registration for the Arena Cup. $250K in cash prizes. Free simulated futures trading competition. Three Tuesday qualifiers (5/19, 5/26, 6/2) with $20K up for grabs each round and 10,000 traders competing per round. No entry fee, sim accounts, just trade. If that sounds like your kind of thing, sign up: bit.ly/4cJFFdW.

Yesterday’s Sessions

ES Friday made a fresh record at 7301 then sold to 7255.50 and grinded back to settle 7257.50. POC printed 7273, value built 7265.25 to 7288.25. Inside-day character above the 7300 round number. Sellers were active up there. The 7301 print was the high of the rally and the close was 44 handles below it. That’s not a trend day, that’s an exhaustion print getting tested.

NQ broke to fresh all-time highs at 27917 and held. Closed 27837.25, POC 27880, value 27815 to 27898.75. The Friday low at 27617.75 sat right on April’s old high. Textbook breakout retest. Mag7 carrying the weight. Fifteen of sixteen sessions green now.

CL ranged 99.30 to 103.88 and settled 102.18 with POC 101.93. Friday dumped 3% off the Hormuz spike on ceasefire chatter. The week’s $13 round trip is the story. Anyone who got short crude into the Friday fade got tested overnight.

GC dragged from 4673.20 down to 4597.10 and bounced to 4623. POC 4650, value 4625.30 to 4667.60. The long crowd got their bounce off the week low. Three weeks of distribution still in the rearview, and the April peak at 4917 looks more like a lower-high vs the cycle than a fresh top.

The Overnight

ES opened Globex 7267.75, ran to 7274.50, then sold all the way through Friday’s low and printed 7213.75. That’s a $60 cascade off the highs and 42 handles below Friday’s 7255.50 floor. Buyers showed up at 7213 and reclaimed back into Friday’s value. Currently 7251 with today POC 7249, today VAH 7265, today VAL 7237, session VWAP 7250.40. The market gave both sides a punch and ended up right at unchanged.

NQ opened Globex 27938, extended to a fresh ATH at 27965.75, then collapsed 303 handles to 27662.25 before getting bought back. That’s a wide-range Globex that tested both extremes. The 27662 low sat $40 above the 27622 April high (the breakout retest line) and held. Currently 27850.50 right on today POC, today VAH 27910.50, today VAL 27807.50. Both extremes printed, both got rejected. Decision tape.

CL opened Globex 101.68, ripped to 107.46 (right back to last week’s Hormuz-spike zone), then puked $7 to 100.12. The headline tape lit up again and the same range structure that defined last week is alive into this week. Currently 102.08 with today POC at 100, today VAH 104.53, today VAL 99.71. Session VWAP 103.37 above price. Crude is doing what crude does.

GC opened Globex 4616, made 4624, then sold $89 to 4535. That’s a Friday-low break with conviction (4597.10 lost, 4565.60 magnet broken) and a test of the staircase down. Buyers showed at 4535 and reclaimed to 4580. Today POC 4575, today VAH 4617.70, today VAL 4560.40. The bear-case scenario we mapped Friday is now in motion. The 4522 week low / April low is the next line.

The Map

ES tested both sides overnight. The 7274.50 Globex high tagged Friday’s value zone from above and got rejected. The 7213.75 Globex low broke through Friday’s 7255.50 floor by 42 handles and got bought. Now we’re sitting at 7251 with today POC 7249 and session VWAP 7250.40 stacked at the same level. That’s a coiled tape between the breakout floor reclaim and the prior session’s value. Above 7257.50 (Friday close) and 7265 (today VAH) the trend has a chance to extend. Above 7274.50 the upside opens to 7300 and expected high 7323.74. Below 7237 (today VAL) the 7213.75 Globex low becomes the next test, then we’re trading air toward 7200 / 7192 expected low. The line in the sand is still 7160. Week POC, April POC, the level value spent the most time at all month.

NQ took out the Friday ATH overnight at 27965.75 AND tested 138 handles below the 27800 breakout floor at 27662.25 before getting bought. The 27662 print sat $40 above the 27622 April high (the breakout retest line) and held. Currently 27850 right on today POC, session VWAP 27846.68 right under price. The 27662 to 27965 Globex range gave the bulls and the bears each their look. Both got rejected. Above 27910 (today VAH) the trend re-extends and 27965 becomes the gate, then 28000 (structural call ceiling) and expected high 28172. Below 27807 (today VAL) we re-test the 27662 Globex low, then 27622 (Friday low / April high) is the line where the breakout actually fails. Below 27622 the path opens to 27500 (week POC = April POC = the structural floor).

Crude had another headline-driven $7 round trip overnight. Globex ripped to 107.46 (right into last week’s Hormuz cluster at 105 to 108) then puked back to 99.11 / 100.12 area, currently 102.08. Today POC 100 is the magnet. Today VAH 104.53 is where buyers gave up, today VAL 99.71 is where sellers gave up. The structural range 95.29 to 108.50 is unchanged and we’re trading the middle. Above 104.53 we head back to 106 / 107.46 spike zone where heavy interest stacks. Below 100 today POC and 99.71 today VAL the path to 95.29 (week low) opens fast and 89.70 (April POC, where crude actually lived all month) is in the conversation. Headline tape runs all week.

Gold lost the line. Friday’s 4597.10 low and the 4565.60 structural magnet both got broken in Globex on the way down to 4535. The bear scenario we mapped is in motion. Currently 4579.90 with today POC 4575, today VAH 4617.70, today VAL 4560.40, session VWAP 4590.12. The bounce off 4535 is sitting inside today’s value. Above 4597 (the broken Friday low) is the first reclaim test, then 4624 (Globex high) and 4644 (Globex open). Above 4673.20 (Friday high) the rebuilding gets serious. Below 4560 today VAL the 4535 Globex low is the next stop, then 4522.20 (week low / April low) is the line. Below 4522 the long crowd that’s been holding 153,000 net long for the geopolitical premium starts puking.

What I’m Watching

ES is the reclaim read. Globex broke Friday’s 7255.50 low and got bought at 7213.75. Now we’re sitting at 7251 with session VWAP and today POC stacked at the same level. Either ES holds 7237 (today VAL) and grinds back through 7257.50 / 7265 / 7274.50 toward 7300, or sellers come back and 7213.75 cracks for real with 7200 / 7192 expected low as the next staircase. The 7160 week POC stays the line. PLTR after the close starts the AI-tape conversation. NFP Friday is the override on the whole week.

NQ is whether 27662 was the real test or there’s a deeper flush. The bull-case is the breakout retest already happened in Globex and held. The bear-case is the bounce off 27662 was a relief and we re-test 27622 (April high / breakout line) into the close. Above 27910 today VAH and the trend resumes toward 27965 ATH, 28000 structural call ceiling, expected high 28172. Below 27807 today VAL and the 27662 Globex low is the next test, then 27622 is the line that says the breakout actually fails. PLTR AMC and AMD Tuesday AMC are the catalyst stack for the rest of the week. Mag7 is doing the work. Mag7 has to keep doing the work.

CL is its own animal again. Two $7 round trips in three sessions. Globex spike to 107.46 got sold immediately. Either the headline tape lights up again and we re-test 105 to 108 cluster, or the failed spike means the geopolitical bid is genuinely thinning and 100 round cracks for real. Today POC at 100 is the magnet. Above 104.53 today VAH and the 105 / 106 / 107.46 cluster comes back into play. Below 99.71 today VAL and the path to 95.29 week low opens, then 89.70 April POC. EIA Wednesday is the only scheduled event but the headline tape runs every day.

GC is whether 4522 holds. The line we identified Friday (4597.10) is broken. The magnet (4565.60) is broken. The 4535 Globex low held the bounce so far. Three weeks of distribution behind us. Either gold holds 4535 and we work back toward 4575 today POC and 4597 broken Friday low for a reclaim attempt, or 4522 (week low / April low) cracks and the long crowd holding 153,000 net long starts puking inventory. Below 4522 we’re in air. If equities rip into the open, gold stays heavy. If equities crack on a soft PLTR / AMD reaction, gold might find a bid.

The White Van Stuff

The white van had a busy night. ES same-day cap and call ceiling stack at 7300 with the 7275 nearby above interest acting as the immediate test. The 7245 to 7260 cluster (the band Friday’s whole session lived in) got its first real test from below at 7213.75 and the options crowd defended it. NQ saw the 27710 ceiling that lost the most positioning on the planet last week act as floor again. The 27662 Globex low sat $40 above the 27622 April high and got bought. Gamma stayed positive on both indices, call-dominated. Daily expected range plus or minus 65 on ES and plus or minus 340 on NQ. With Globex already covering 60 handles on ES and 303 on NQ, both indices have already used most of their daily range. PLTR after the close blows the NQ number up if it surprises either direction.

The 7240 to 7260 zone is where ES is trading right now and it’s the band where positioning is densest. The 7275 nearby above is the first test on a recovery, then 7300 today’s cap (and structural call ceiling, same level), then expected high 7323.74. The 7213.75 Globex low we already tested sat between today’s pivot 7240 and downside target 7200. Below 7200 the 7192.26 expected low and 7170 magnet open up. The standard 7000 floor is way down.

NQ printed the new ATH at 27965.75 above the 27900 heavy interest and just below the 28000 structural call ceiling. The 27800 today’s cap (the level that flipped to floor when NQ broke 27710) was tested and held. Globex low 27662 sat between 27700 and 27650. The 27500 today’s pivot is 350 handles below current price and stacks with expected low 27499. Today’s magnet 27440 just below that, and the structural floor 27400 (week POC / April POC) is the level that says the breakout actually fails.

The Globex spike to 107.46 sat right on the expected high 107.65 and got sold immediately. That’s the line that capped last week’s rally too. The 105 to 108 cluster is overhead supply now from the Hormuz-week build. Below price the 100 today’s put floor is the round number that’s defended every break, and the 96.23 expected low and 95 downside target are the real air pockets. The magnet at 88.25 is where crude lived all month before the geopolitical bid.

Gold cracked the 4585 today’s put floor in Globex and tested the 4535 downside target. The magnet 4565.60 is now broken structure. The bounce from 4535 is sitting inside today’s value. Today’s pivot at 4610 is the recovery test (above today VAH 4617.70). Above 4655 / 4675 / 4685 / 4695 expected high is where the structural rebuild starts. Below 4564 expected low and 4535 downside target the staircase runs to 4436 standard floor. The 4522 week low is where the entire setup gets decided.

The Calendar

- 7:00 AM CT, Total Vehicle Sales (April)

- 9:00 AM CT, Factory Orders (March)

- 11:50 AM CT, Fed Williams speech

- 1:00 PM CT, Senior Loan Officer Survey

- AMC, Palantir (PLTR) earnings

Light tape on the macro side. Williams is the only real Fed mover before the bell. PLTR after the close is the AI-tape tone setter.

What Could Go Wrong

ES fails to reclaim 7257.50 (Friday close) on the open and the 7213.75 Globex low cracks for real with sellers behind it. Below 7213 we’re trading air through 7200 / 7192 expected low to 7170 magnet, with the 7160 week POC / April POC line as the destination. The relief bounce off Globex lows turns into a one-day overshoot and the squeeze fuel that powered six up weeks runs out as NFP-week chop sets in.

NQ rolls from 27850 today POC into a soft PLTR after-hours read or a weak open and re-tests 27662 Globex low with conviction. Below 27622 (Friday low / April high) the breakout actually fails and 27500 today’s pivot / 27499 expected low / 27440 today’s magnet stack into a 200-handle air pocket down to 27400 (week POC / April POC). The breakout that printed Friday gets exposed as a single-day overshoot and the gap back into prior week’s value at 27046 / 27009 enters the conversation. Mag7 has been carrying the move. A Mag7 wobble cracks it.

Crude’s Globex spike-and-puke pattern continues all week and the headline tape stays loud. Either 100 today’s put floor cracks below 99 with sellers behind it and 95.29 / 89.70 (week low / April POC) opens up, or the 108 cap holds again on the next ceasefire-headline reversal. Gold’s 4522 week low cracks on a continued equity rip and the 153,000 net long crowd starts puking inventory. Below 4522 we’re in air through 4500 / 4480 / 4436 standard floor, and the geopolitical premium that built since the 4917 cycle peak fully unwinds.

The Plan

ES: Above 7257.50 (Friday close) and 7265 (today VAH) the reclaim has a chance with 7274.50 (Globex high) as the first test, then 7300 today’s cap and expected high 7323.74. Below 7237 (today VAL) the 7213.75 Globex low becomes the next test, then we’re trading air toward 7200 (downside target) and 7192 expected low, then 7170 (magnet) is where the air pocket opens. PLTR AMC tonight kicks off the AI tape for the week and NFP Friday is the override on every read. Don’t carry max longs into the close without a plan.

NQ: Above 27910 (today VAH) the trend resumes toward 27965 ATH, 28000 structural call ceiling, and expected high 28172. Hold 27807 today VAL keeps the breakout intact. Below 27807 the 27662 Globex low is the next test, then 27622 (Friday low / April high) is the breakout line. Lose 27622 and the rally has a real problem with 27500 / 27440 (today’s magnet) below, then 27400 (week POC / April POC) is the structural floor. AMD Tuesday AMC is the bigger NQ event but PLTR tonight tones the tape. Mag7 is doing the work.

CL: Above 104.53 (today VAH) we head back to 105.50 / 106 / 107.46 cluster where the Hormuz-spike interest stacks. Hold 100 today POC as the magnet keeps the range structure intact. Below 99.71 today VAL and 99.11 the path to 95.29 (week low) opens fast and 89.70 (April POC) is in the conversation. The Globex spike-and-puke is the setup. Headline tape all week, EIA Wednesday is the only scheduled event. Don’t fade a Globex extreme without a real signal.

GC: Above 4597 (broken Friday low) the reclaim attempt has a chance with 4624 (Globex high) and 4644 (Globex open) as the steps, then 4673.20 (Friday high) where the rebuilding gets serious. Hold 4535 (Globex low) keeps a bounce-from-low setup intact. Below 4535 the 4522.20 (week low / April low) line cracks and the long crowd holding 153,000 net long starts puking inventory. Below 4522 we’re in air. If equities keep ripping AND ceasefire holds, gold stays heavy. If equities crack on a soft PLTR or AMD print, gold might find a bid. Honest to god.

Last night was a party. We gave away some goodies. Laughed. Almost broke youtube and we’re doing it again next Sunday. I will figure out the “go live on substack thing”. If you missed it heres the link.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

Yesterday’s Sessions

ES opened 7200 sharp, ground up to 7251.75, and closed 7238. POC printed 7244.50 with VAH 7251.50 / VAL 7187.50. The kind of contained drift higher that means buyers never got tested. First close above 7200 ever and the volume area was tight as hell. That’s not noise.

NQ opened 27489.75, ran to 27622, dipped through the morning to 27163.25, then rebuilt to close 27578.75. POC came in at 27400 with VAH 27456.75 / VAL 27180. The day made a real low and then refused to revisit it. Mag7 holding it up.

CL ranged 103.33 to 106.62, settled 105.22 with POC at 104.94 and VAH 105.45 / VAL 104.05. The week’s been a one-way conversation between $95 and $108 and yesterday was the inside-day version of it. Crude can’t extend up, won’t break down.

GC drifted 4618 to 4659, closed 4630 with POC = close = 4630 and value compressed inside 4622.50 to 4638.30. That’s a market waiting on something. It got an answer overnight.

The Overnight

ES Globex 7258 open, 7260.25 high, 7246.50 low, sitting 7256.25 right now. Holding above yesterday’s VAH with session VWAP at 7253.63 right under price. Above value, above the prior call ceiling, above all of it. The tape is exactly where the bulls would draw it.

NQ Globex opened 27628.25, traded to 27640.75, faded to 27536.25, sitting 27560 now. Inside yesterday’s VA but below the overnight high. Apple beat after-hours got priced in and then sold. NQ is the question mark today.

CL Globex print 105 to 106.65 to 103.95 to 104.31 now. Crude punched above yesterday’s high overnight then got sold $2.70 off the top. That’s a tell.

GC Globex opened 4620.70 (already $10 below close), made a 4628.20 high, then collapsed to 4570 and is sitting 4588.90. Forty dollars of damage overnight. The safety bid is gone.

The Map

Price is sitting right at the top of value with VWAP, POC, VAH, and the overnight high all stacked inside a 12-handle band. That’s a coiled tape. Lose 7244.50 (yesterday POC) and the conversation moves back inside yesterday’s range. The 7160 Week POC is the magnet on a real failure.

NQ is sitting below the Globex high with Mag7 momentum doing the work. The 27500 area was last week’s ceiling and it’s now the floor that has to hold. Lose 27400 (yesterday POC, also Week POC) and 27190 opens up fast.

Crude is below yesterday’s POC with the overnight selling already $2.70 off the high. The 104 area is the line. Below that, 103.33 (yesterday low) is the next ladder rung and last week’s 99.74 VAL is in the conversation. Crude has refused to extend through $108 all week.

Gold gapped down through yesterday’s entire value area overnight and built a fresh POC $50 below yesterday’s. The 4570 overnight low is the line in the sand right now. Lose it and last week’s 4548 VAL is the next stop, then prior month low 4522.

What I’m Watching

ES: Whether the 7250 same-day cap acts as floor instead of ceiling now that we’ve punched through it. Hold above and the 7300 call ceiling and 7308 expected top come into play. Lose 7251 (yesterday VAH and Globex pivot) and we’re back inside yesterday’s value with 7187.50 (yesterday VAL) as the next floor. The whole bull case rides on holding the breakout.

NQ: Whether NQ closes the gap to the 27700 same-day cap or rolls over from here. Above 27622 yesterday high and 27640 Globex high the path to 27700 opens. Below 27500 (yesterday VAH zone) and 27400 (yesterday POC = Week POC) the path to 27190 to 27240 magnet opens up fast. AAPL got bid up after-hours and sold in Globex. That’s a setup that could roll over.

CL: Whether yesterday’s high $106.62 is the cycle top. Crude has refused to extend above $108 even with the headlines. If $104 fails on a real flush, $103.33 yesterday low is the staircase and $99.74 (last week’s VAL) is in play. Watching whether the $100s hold or whether the air pocket below opens up.

GC: Whether 4570 holds as the overnight low or whether the safety bid is genuinely gone. We’re $40 below yesterday’s close already. Above 4630 (yesterday POC = close) we have a chance to repair the damage. Below 4570 the $4548 week VAL and $4522 prior month low are the next stops.

The White Van Stuff

ES: Same-day cap sits at 7250 and we’re trading $6 ABOVE it right now. That’s a market in the middle of a punch through resistance. Today’s pivot is 7170 (below value), today’s put floor 7100. Expected daily top is 7308.64, expected low 7178.86. The structural call ceiling is 7300 with heavy interest stacked at 7320, 7325, 7350, and a far cluster at 7376. Standard put floor sits at 7000. The whole upside cluster from 7250 to 7376 is the next $125 of conversation.

NQ: Same-day cap is 27700 and we’re $140 below it. Today’s pivot 27430 sits right under the action, today’s put floor at 27200. Expected daily top is 27925.61 (the runway above), expected low 27266.39. The structural call ceiling stepped up to 28000 with heavy interest above at 28104 and 28250. Standard floor 25000. Above 27700 the path opens to the 27900s and the upside cluster at 28100 to 28250.

CL: Same-day cap and structural call ceiling are both 110, confluence at the obvious round number that’s been the wall all week. Today’s pivot is 108, today’s put floor 107. Expected high 110.72, expected low 99.42. The all-expiry magnet stepped up to 99.75 (was 94.5 a week ago, market is leaning higher). Heavy interest above at 109, 111, 112, 115. Standard floor 85. The 100 to 110 band is the entire short-term range conversation.

GC: Same-day cap is 4664.94 (above price), today’s pivot 4625.07 right where yesterday’s value built. Today’s put floor sits at 4585.20, basically AT current price. That’s the line that has to hold or things get messier. Expected high 4680.94, expected low 4548.46. Structural call ceiling way up at 4784, structural floor 4435. The magnet level 4630 is also yesterday’s POC. Below today’s put floor the path through 4575, 4560, and 4548 opens fast.

The Calendar

- 8:45 AM CT, S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI Final (April)

- 9:00 AM CT, ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)

- 9:00 AM CT, ISM Manufacturing Employment / New Orders / Prices (April)

- 12:00 PM CT, Baker Hughes Rig Count

ISM at 9 is the only thing on the tape that picks the side today.

What Could Go Wrong

1. ES loses 7244.50 (yesterday POC) and unwinds back through yesterday’s value. 7187.50 (yesterday VAL) becomes the next floor and a real failure puts 7160 (Week POC) in the conversation.

2. NQ loses 27400 (yesterday POC = Week POC) and the path to 27190 opens up. Mag7 strength can hold this; a Mag7 wobble cracks it.

3. CL fails 104 with conviction and 103.33 yesterday low becomes the staircase down. Below that 99 to 100 is the next real floor and the entire week’s range gets revisited from the bottom.

The Plan

ES: Holding above 7250 (today’s same-day cap) keeps the breakout in play with 7300 (structural call ceiling) as the immediate test, then expected high 7308 and the heavy interest cluster at 7320 to 7350. Below 7244.50 (yesterday POC) we’re back inside yesterday’s value, and 7187.50 (yesterday VAL) is the next staircase rung. ISM at 9 will pick the side.

NQ: Above 27622 (yesterday high) and 27640 (Globex high) the same-day cap at 27700 is the gate, then expected top 27926 and the 28000 ceiling. Below 27500 we’re back inside yesterday’s value with 27430 (today’s pivot) as the magnet and 27400 (yesterday POC = Week POC) below that, then 27200 today’s put floor. AAPL got bid up and sold overnight. Don’t be the last one in.

CL: Above 105.50 (today POC) the conversation stays in the upper $100s with 106.62 yesterday high as the cap. Below 104 (and we’re already there) yesterday low 103.33 is in play, then last week’s 99.74 VAL. Crude won’t extend above $108 even with the headlines. That’s a market telling you something.

GC: Above 4630 (yesterday POC = close) the damage gets repaired toward 4659 yesterday high. Below 4570 (overnight low) the path opens to last week’s 4548 VAL and prior month 4522 low. Forty dollars of overnight damage with the safety bid gone is not a buy-the-dip setup until 4570 holds.

Go make some money. Touch Grass. We’ll see you Sunday Night for the show.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

Yesterday’s Sessions

ES opened 7163.25, ran to 7175.50, dipped to 7137, closed 7170.25 right on POC 7160. Single distribution, value 7149 to 7165.25. Tight 38-handle range, a holding pattern for the Fed. Trader-day done before the data hit.

NQ opened 27206.75, made it to 27339, faded to 27124, closed 27337 on the high. POC 27220, value 27159.75 to 27278.25. Trend day higher, 215-handle range, but every dollar of it built before 1pm. Aspirational into the close, not committed.

CL opened 103.83, ran to 108.50, closed 107.78 high-of-day. POC 106.77. Eighth straight up session and the bid stayed clean into the bell.

GC opened 4578.80, traded 4522.20 to 4580.80, closed 4560.80 mid-range. POC 4560. Trend day lower, weekly low printed at 4522.20. The shape said continuation. The close said no commitment.

The Overnight

ES opened Globex 7145.50, dipped to 7133.75, then ripped to 7208 overnight high. Currently 7207.25 sitting under week high 7211.25. That’s a 74-handle rally off the low and a tag of the week ceiling is the next pin. 156K Globex contracts, double normal flow. Real money, not pre-print drift.

NQ opened Globex 27233.50, dropped to 27185.25, then exploded to 27514 overnight high. Currently 27508.50. Plus 280 from the open. The cloud trio carrying it. Above week VAH 27390 and now testing the 27500 call ceiling stacked with full-session VAH 27619.25 above.

CL went the other direction. Opened Globex 109.84, ripped to 110.31, then dumped to 103.50 low. Currently 104.82. A six-handle round trip in one Globex session. The eight-up streak met an open round number and faded just as fast.

GC opened Globex 4553.70, ran to 4658.80, currently 4641.90. Reclaim of yesterday’s loss in one session and then some. Above session VWAP 4609.90, above yesterday POC. The “gold goes up on the news” trade isn’t dead. Just delayed by a Fed.

The Map

ES (current 7207.25)

ES is camped right at overnight high stacked under week high 7211.25 in an eleven-handle band. The only thing above is open air toward 7250 then the 7300 zone untouched since the rally. Holds the 7195 / 7200 zone and the upside tilts into 7211 then 7250+. Loses with sellers behind it and 7170 session VWAP / yesterday POC is the first real test, then 7157 today VAL is the line that says the relief rally failed.

NQ (current 27508.50)

NQ ripped through week VAH and is testing the today VAH zone with two of the four after-hours prints already digested and AAPL still to come. Holds 27465 today POC and the run extends through 27514 overnight high to 27619.25 today VAH then air. Loses 27465 with the after-hours capping the move and 27379 session VWAP becomes the first stop, then 27295 today VAL.

CL (current 104.82)

Crude built a wide value zone overnight 103.50 to 108.39 with POC at 104.30 right under spot. Six handles below the high. The streak day looks like the local top, 110.31 was a one-print exhaustion. Holds 103.50 today VAL and any bounce probably retests today POC area. Loses it and yesterday’s low 103.05 then 100 round are the next reads.

GC (current 4641.90)

Gold reclaimed the entire weekly drop in one session. Above session VWAP, above yesterday POC, knocking on overnight high 4658.80. Holds the 4609 zone (session VWAP / week VAH stacked) and the next read is 4658 overnight high then 4710 prev wk VAL where last week’s value lived. Loses and 4580 today POC is the first test, then 4551.60 today VAL is the line that says the bounce got faded.

What I’m Watching

ES is the cleanest read. The 7195 to 7211 zone is one band. Today POC, today VAH, overnight high, and week high all clustered. Either it breaks with momentum and the upside opens to 7250 then 7300, or sellers defend that ceiling and the relief rally caps. Core PCE at 7:30 is the gate.

NQ is the one with the most variance. AAPL after the bell decides the carry. If Apple confirms the AI capex narrative, NQ runs into 27619 today VAH and 28000 round becomes plausible. If Apple disappoints or guides cautious, the 27500 call ceiling traps the move and the gap back to 27390 week VAH opens fast. Watching whether 27465 today POC holds as the lower bound today.

CL is its own animal. Crude said something overnight. 110 was rejected hard. Watching whether 105 holds as support after the round trip. Holds and crude is digesting, not breaking. Loses 103.50 today VAL and the eight-day rip starts unwinding back into 100 round. EIA at 9:30 ignites or kills the move.

GC is a question of whether the reclaim holds. Above 4609 session VWAP and the bounce extends into 4658 then 4690. Loses 4580 today POC and the V-rally fades back into the value of yesterday’s flush. Gold has been the headline-trust tell all week. Today’s open answers that question for the rest of the week.

The White Van Stuff

The white van says the relief is mostly priced in now. ES same-day cap and call ceiling stack at 7200, exactly where price is now. NQ same-day cap and call ceiling stack at 27500, exactly where price is right now. Both indices pinned at their call-seller load. Either the post-PCE move breaks the cap or fades. Daily expected range plus or minus 67 on ES and plus or minus 350 on NQ. Apple tonight blows that NQ number up.

ES options levels (current 7207.25)

Nearest above 7225 stacks with the 7220 nearby above just under the upside expected top 7236.77 and the 7250 interest stack. Either price breaks 7220-25 with momentum and the expected top is the next read, or 7200 caps. Today’s pivot 7155 stacks with the magnet 7145 in a tight ten-handle band, and same-day floor 7125 is the line that says the relief read failed.

NQ options levels (current 27508.50)

Spot is sitting on the call ceiling 27500 with heavy interest at 27498.86 confirming. Above and 27600 nearby above sets up the stack 27633 / 27650 / 27674 expected top, with the bigger 27724-27800 cluster overhead. Below 27500 and same-day floor 27275 is 230 handles down with the today’s pivot 27190 stacked just below. AAPL tonight breaks the tie.

CL options levels (current 104.82)

Crude is sitting on today’s pivot 105 right at the round number, with spot 0.18 below. Above 105 the staircase runs 106 upside target / 109 nearby above / 110 call ceiling / 111 nearest above / 112.70 upside expected top. The 115 same-day cap is the spike-scenario line. Below 105 the next interest is 102 then 100 with the downside expected 101.06 between them. Magnet 94.50 is where any unwind would resolve.

GC options levels (current 4641.90)

Gold ran above its own upside expected top 4611.90 and through the same-day cap 4583.56 in one Globex session. That’s an outside-range move to the upside. Above price the only structure is 4653 nearest above then the 4782 call ceiling far overhead. Below, the 4583 same-day cap flips to support if the bounce holds, with the magnet 4563 and today’s pivot 4533 stacked. Same-day floor 4483 is the line that says the bounce was a fade.

The Calendar

- 7:30 AM CT Initial Jobless Claims

- 7:30 AM CT Q1 GDP advance read

- 7:30 AM CT Core PCE Price Index and PCE Price Index

- 9:00 AM CT Pending Home Sales

After the bell: AAPL earnings. Mag7 is half-priced from last night. Apple closes the loop. Core PCE is the override on the morning move.

What Could Go Wrong

ES rejects 7211 week high with sellers behind it on a hot Core PCE and the 7195 / 7200 zone flips to ceiling. Air down to 7170 session VWAP then 7157 today VAL with the door open back to 7125 same-day floor. The relief rally becomes a one-day overshoot.

NQ caps at 27500 call ceiling on a soft AAPL guide and 27465 today POC fails into 27379 session VWAP. Below 27295 today VAL is air through the 27200 zone where yesterday’s profile lived, and the post-Mag7 gap closes back into Tuesday’s value.

Crude can’t reclaim 105 same-day floor and 103 cracks. The eight-day rip becomes a three-day retrace and 100 round opens back up. Gold caps at 4658 overnight high and the bounce that just covered 100 handles in one session decides yesterday’s flush wasn’t done.

The Plan

ES: Hold the 7195 to 7211 zone (today POC stacked under week high) and the upside extends to 7236 expected top then 7250 same-day cap. Lose 7170 session VWAP and 7157 today VAL is the first test, then air through 7125 same-day floor. Core PCE at 7:30 sets the tone. Let the print pass before sizing.

NQ: Above 27514 overnight high with momentum and the cluster 27633 / 27676 / 27724 is the staircase to today VAH 27619 and the upside expected top 27674. Lose 27465 today POC and 27379 session VWAP becomes the first test, then 27295 today VAL with the same-day floor 27275 stacked below. AAPL after the bell is the override. Don’t carry full size into close.

CL: Hold 105 magnet / same-day floor and the digest is normal. Above 108 today VAH and the rip resumes toward 110 then 112.70 expected top. Lose 103.50 today VAL with sellers behind it and 100 round comes back into play fast. EIA at 9:30 is the ignite-or-kill print. Don’t fade an eighth-day reaction without a real signal.

GC: Hold 4609 session VWAP / week VAH and the bounce extends into 4658 overnight high then 4690. Lose 4580 today POC and 4551.60 today VAL is the first test, then 4493 same-day floor where the V-rally would fully fade. The reclaim was violent. The cap on it will be too. Watch 4658 first.

Please for the love of god, lets get a decent two-way tape Today.

If you aint first, you’re last.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.

Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick

Yesterday’s Sessions

ES opened 7172.00, ran to 7183.00, sold off to 7146.00, then ground back to close 7171.50 right on POC. Outside day, single distribution, value 7155.00 to 7174.75. The whole prior session’s range got tested both directions and price rotated back to where it started. About as nothing of a session as it gets going into a Fed.

NQ opened 27161.00, dumped to 27009.50 inside the first two hours, then ground for the rest of the session to close 27169.25. POC 27170.00, VAH 27233.00, VAL 27071.75. Trend day lower with the back half repaired. 240-handle range, buyers showed up at the lows but never got back into prior value. Pre-print posture.

CL opened 99.41, traded value 99.48 to 100.17, closed 99.91. POC 99.90. Quiet tape on the surface. The whole day was waiting for headlines and the headlines hit after the bell.

GC opened 4592.00, ran to 4615.90, fell to 4570.10, closed 4609.60. POC 4610.00, value 4587.80 to 4613.50. Trend day lower with a save into the bell. Honest to God you would not have known from the close that gold was about to give up another fifty handles overnight.

The Overnight

ES opened Globex 7184.75, tagged 7188.50 inside the first hour, then drifted back inside yesterday’s value to print 7168.00 currently. Sitting on yesterday POC with the cluster of week VAL and April POC stacked five handles below. 109K contracts, normal flow. No commitment either way and that’s exactly right for FOMC morning.

NQ opened Globex 27299.25, made it to 27317.25 above yesterday’s high, then faded the rest of the session to 27222.50 mid-range. Same shape as ES, bigger swing. The four-pack tonight is the actual decision tree. This morning is positioning, not conviction.

CL opened 99.58 and ripped. High 104.37, low 99.56, currently 103.93. Eight straight up sessions and the breakout above the 100 round number that capped everything for a week is finally clean. 57K contracts on Globex, double normal flow. Crude is now above last week’s high and pressing the upper expected range.

GC opened 4618.60, tagged 4621.30 as the high inside the first hour, and never came back. Low 4557.40, currently 4557.90 sitting on the overnight low and right on week VAL. Higher rates pricing killed the safety bid even with the geopolitical tape staying ugly. The “gold goes up on the news” trade broke this week.

The Map

ES (current 7168.00)

The line in the sand is yesterday POC at 7171.50 stacked on top of week VAL at 7165 and April POC at 7160. That’s a three-level shelf inside an eleven-handle band. Holds and the door reopens to 7174.75 yesterday VAH then 7188.50 overnight high then the bigger 7200 zone above. Loses with sellers behind it and 7155 yesterday VAL is the first test, then 7146 yesterday low, then nothing structural until prev week VAL at 7121.75.

NQ (current 27222.50)

Yesterday POC 27170 is also the week POC. One line. Holds and the recovery runs through 27233 yesterday VAH, 27317 overnight high, 27363 week VAH, then the 27375 ceiling. Loses and 27071.75 yesterday VAL is the next test. Through 27009 yesterday low / week VAL is a single shelf and below that is air down to April POC 26750 then prev week VAL 26599. Three hundred handles of empty if both legs of the shelf give.

CL (current 103.93)

Crude is above everything in the recent profile. The 100.45 / 100.47 zone (week VAH stacked on yesterday’s high) is the level the rip has to defend on any pullback. Above 104.37 overnight high there’s open air up to 105 then the upper expected range. Below 100 the move unwinds back into last week’s value fast and the headline-risk premium that built up gets paid back.

GC (current 4557.90)

Gold sits right on week VAL at 4558.60 after a fifty-handle dump. That level is the line and there is nothing meaningful below it in the recent profile until March VAL at 4449.90 a hundred handles south. Reclaim 4587.80 yesterday VAL and the wash-out repaired into yesterday POC 4610. Without that, every bounce is a sell into Powell.

What I’m Watching

ES is the cleanest read. The 7160 to 7171 inflection cluster (April POC, week VAL, yesterday POC stacked) either holds through the open and the morning’s range is the floor, or it gives way and 7146 yesterday low is the next test with prev week VAL at 7121 as the only real backstop after that. Watching whether buyers defend the shelf into the open or lean back and let the Fed decide.

NQ is the one that breaks first if anything breaks. 27170 is the line. Above it the upside cascade reopens. Below it 27071 yesterday VAL is the first test, then 27009 yesterday low / week VAL stacked. The four-pack tonight is the actual decision. Whatever happens this morning is positioning. NQ is the most exposed of the four into the close.

CL is its own animal. Eight sessions of grinding up turned into a four-handle breakout overnight. Watching whether the 100.45 / 100.47 level flips to support on a pullback. Holds and the rip stays alive into 105. Loses and the gap closes back into last week’s value. EIA at 9:30 ignites or kills the move.

GC is a question of whether 4558 holds. Below that is air to March VAL at 4449.90. The long crowd that piled in at 4900 last week is now down 350 handles and looking at no real support until 4500. Watching for a reclaim of 4587 to repair, or a flush through 4527 daily expected low to confirm the unwind.

The White Van Stuff

The white van has a story. Yesterday’s close had ES net options exposure dropping 44.65% in one day, NQ dropping 32.41%. Bullish positioning got unwound hard into the FOMC. P/C ratio on ES at 1.14, NQ at 1.28, both leaning put. The expected daily move is plus or minus 67 handles on ES and plus or minus 345 handles on NQ. That is a Fed-only number and the four-pack tonight blows it up.

For names actually printing: Meta is at 76% IV rank, Amazon at 71%. The options market is pricing both for genuinely large earnings moves. Microsoft and Alphabet are quieter on the expected move but have the cleaner setups. Apple is tomorrow. The aggregate post-close move drives NQ overnight more than anything Powell says today.

ES options levels (current 7168.00)

The same-day cap shifted up 120 points yesterday to 7275. The same-day floor at 7135 sits right under spot. Yesterday’s positioning data shows call sellers loaded heavy at 7150 and 7160 (both saw aggressive buying). The pivot 7150 stacks with the magnet 7145 in a tight five-handle band. Below the floor at 7135 there is a gap down to 7103 expected low.

NQ options levels (current 27222.50)

The 27375 call ceiling stacks with the same-day cap. 27335 sits between overnight high and the ceiling as the next continuation stop. Today’s pivot 27090 stacks with the magnet 27040 and the same-day floor 27000 in a tight 90-handle zone. Heavy positioning loaded yesterday at 27100, 27150, 27190 (call buying above current price). The earnings reaction tonight either confirms that load or violently unwinds it.

CL options levels (current 103.93)

Crude is right under the same-day cap at 105 and the upside expected top at 104.88. Either it cracks 105 with EIA momentum or fades. The 110 call ceiling is where the story would have to fully spiral. Below, 101 is the level the breakout has to hold.

GC options levels (current 4557.90)

Gold sits below the same-day floor at 4583. The downside expected at 4527.55 is the next reference. The 4633 same-day cap is where any reclaim has to fight. Above 4653 magnet and the move repairs back into yesterday’s structure.

The Calendar

FOMC and Powell Presser 1pm/1:30pm CT

After the bell: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon. Apple Thursday. Four of the Mag7 in one shot tonight and the options market is pricing Meta and Amazon for genuinely large moves. The press conference at 1:30 sets the tone for whether equities can hold into earnings or cap and fade.

What Could Go Wrong

ES loses 7146 on a hawkish Fed and the entire 7160 to 7171 inflection cluster fails. Air to 7121 prev week VAL then 7079 with nothing recent to lean on. The shelf flips to a roof and you find out fast.

NQ rejects the 27090 to 27170 zone on the press conf and 27000 cracks. Once the same-day floor goes the gap below sits wide open down through April POC 26750, and you carry that read into the four-pack with zero margin.

Crude prints back through 100 on EIA and the eight-session rip becomes an eight-session retrace. Gold catches a bid on inflation easing and the whole risk-on / risk-off pair trade unwinds in one tape.

The Plan

ES: Hold above 7160 to 7171 and the recovery runs 7174.75 yesterday VAH then 7188.50 overnight high then the 7200 call ceiling, with the 7275 same-day cap above that. Lose 7155 yesterday VAL with sellers behind it and 7146 yesterday low is the first real test, then air to 7121 prev week VAL. Don’t be cute into 1pm. Powell decides if the shelf becomes a roof.

NQ: Hold 27170 yesterday POC and the upside reopens through 27233 VAH, 27317 overnight high, 27375 call ceiling. Lose it and 27071.75 yesterday VAL is the next test, then 27009.50 yesterday low / week VAL with the gap below in play down to April POC 26750. Earnings AMC overrides everything. NQ is the most exposed of the four into the close.

CL: Above 103.93 and 104.37 overnight high breaking with momentum, the rip extends toward 105 same-day cap and the 104.88 expected top, with 110 call ceiling as the spiral-scenario line. Lose 102 and the move unwinds fast back into 100.45 week VAH where the breakout has to defend. EIA at 9:30 is the gate. Don’t fade an eighth straight up session without a real signal.

GC: Below 4558.60 stays the read and 4527.55 downside expected is the next stop, with 4500 round and March VAL 4449.90 underneath. Reclaim 4587.80 yesterday VAL and the wash-out repairs toward 4608 today’s pivot then 4633 same-day cap. Powell decides whether higher-for-longer sticks. Don’t be aggressive until after 1pm either way.

This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.

Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.

Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick