Monitoring The Situation: Rare Overnight Update

Wild overnight. Iran/USA ceasefire headline hit and the whole tape re-priced. I dont want to say we are so back, but maybe.

Equities ripped through every level on the map. Crude crashed because the war premium is gone. Gold caught a different bid because a ceasefire gives the Fed cover to cut. Three different mechanisms, all moving at the same time.

Quick reference for tomorrow’s open with the levels that actually matter from the bigger picture. Full brief in the morning.

Where We Sit (19:38 CT Tuesday)

              Last       Δ from RTH close
ES            6794.25    +139.50 (+2.1%)
NQ            25030.50   +666.25 (+2.7%)
CL              97.02     -15.22 (-13.6%)
GC            4848.90    +121.60 (+2.6%)

ES: areas to watch

Prev month VAL    6964.50   Last spot prev month built
Prev month low    6894.00   Floor of last month’s range
Globex high       6818.75   Tonight’s top so far
This week POC     6629.00   Where this week built before tonight (now well below)
Prev week high    6653.75   The break level from last week

This whole rip is happening BELOW where ES traded a month ago. To call this “WE ARE SO FUCKING BACK” we’d need another 100 handles to even retest the prev month VAL at 6964. The next real overhead spot is 6818 (tonight’s high) and after that it’s air until 6894. Below us, the line for whether the gap holds is 6720 (Globex VAL) and then 6700.

NQ: areas to watch

Prev month POC    25062.50  Last month’s heaviest spot
Prev month VAH    25063.75  Top of last month’s value
Globex high       25091.25  Tonight’s top
Prev month low    25009.50  Floor of last month’s range
Prev month VAL    25058.50  Bottom of last month’s value
This week POC     24350     Where this week built before tonight

NQ tagged 25091 overnight which is the first touch into the previous month’s range in a month. That whole 25009 to 25317 area is where NQ used to live. If the bid is real, that’s the next zone. The line on a pullback is 25000 (Globex VAL area, plus the round number, plus the prev month low). Lose 25000 and 24800 (Session VWAP) is the next test.

The Read

Equities and gold both ripped, crude crashed, all on the same headline. That’s a coherent ceasefire trade. The risk now is not “where does it go” but “where does the first pullback find buyers.” Headline gaps usually get bought on the first dip if the catalyst is durable. The lines that matter for whether this is real:

- ES: 6720 holds = real. 6720 breaks = the gap is fading.

- NQ: 25000 holds = real. Lose it and the gap is filling.

- Crude: 92-100 range until the dust settles. Don’t be a hero.

- Gold: Above 4740 the trend is intact.

THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER

Nick