The Game Plan: Friday, April 10, 2026
Mission accomplished? Again?
HAPPY CPI DAY TO THOSE WHO CELEBRATE. Hasnt inflation been defeated since November 2023? Does the Market even care anymore? Do I? Probably not.
The last three sessions have been a slow grind higher off the ceasefire gap, and now the market gets to decide if it believes the move. Crude is still the tell. If oil is fading while equities hold, the ceasefire trade is working. If oil rips back through 100 and equities can’t hold yesterday’s highs, we’ve got a problem. We’ll see.
Yesterday’s Sessions
ES was the cleanest chart all week. Opened 6802, found buyers immediately, and ground up to 6876 before settling at 6862. POC at 6864. Volume built right at the highs of the week. That’s not indecision, that’s acceptance. Three sessions now have built volume above 6800 and each one has held higher. The profile is migrating up.
NQ had a real session for once. Range of 24961-25270 with POC at 25155. The morning dip to 24961 (testing overnight lows one more time) got bought hard and we ripped 300 points to close at 25249. That dip-and-rip character tells you someone is positioned long and defending. The question is whether CPI gives them a reason to stay.
CL tested 102.65 intraday and got rejected back to 99.30 close. POC at 98.00. Crude is still trying to figure out where it lives post-ceasefire. The 95-103 range has been the playground all week. Every push above 100 has failed so far. That matters for equities.
GC had a decent recovery day. Low at 4760, high at 4826, close at 4793 with POC at 4812. Gold is building volume in the 4780-4812 zone after that sharp selloff from the 4850s earlier in the week. Starting to look like a base.
The Overnight
ES opened at 6863 and has been quiet. Range of 6851-6871. Barely 20 points. Overnight POC at 6858, VAH at 6867, VAL at 6857. Sitting right on yesterday’s POC. The market is coiled and waiting for CPI at 7:30.
NQ opened at 25270 and pushed to 25302 before pulling back to 25203 and recovering to 25294. Slightly more range than ES (100 points) but still inside yesterday’s value. Overnight POC at 25247.
CL opened at 98.39 and dipped to 97.00 before recovering to 97.54. Overnight range 97-100. POC at 98.80. Sitting in the middle of the weekly range.
GC opened at 4783 and dipped to 4753 before recovering to 4786. Overnight POC at 4785.
The Calendar
CPI and Core CPI at 7:30 AM CT basically they came in as expected (I was writing this and lost track of time before the print). This is the print that sets the tone for the next two weeks(it probably doesnt matter based on the reaction). Michigan Consumer Sentiment prelim at 9:00 AM CT. Baker Hughes rig count at 12:00 PM CT (crude watchers care).
The Map
ES
Yesterday high 6876.00 | Overnight VAL 6856.50
Overnight high 6871.00 | Overnight low 6850.50
Yesterday POC 6863.75 | Week POC 6815.00
Overnight POC 6858.00 | Yesterday low 6801.50
Overnight VAH 6866.50 | Prev week high 6653.75
NQ
Overnight high 25302.25 | Overnight VAL 25206.00
Yesterday high 25269.75 | Overnight low 25202.75
Yesterday POC 25155.00 | Week POC 25080.00
Overnight POC 25247.00 | Yesterday low 24960.50
Overnight VAH 25272.50 | Prev week high 24348.25
ES is building value at the top of the week’s range. Three sessions stacked above 6800. NQ is extended above its week POC of 25080 by almost 200 points. The gap between current price and the week’s heavy volume (NQ 25080, ES 6815) is where the risk lives.
CL
Overnight high 100.42 | Overnight VAL 97.67
Yesterday high 102.65 | Overnight low 97.00
Yesterday POC 98.00 | Yesterday low 95.25
Overnight POC 98.80 | Week POC 98.00
Overnight VAH 99.22 |
GC
Yesterday high 4826.00 | Overnight VAH 4791.30
Week POC 4812.00 | Overnight VAL 4771.40
Yesterday POC 4812.00 | Yesterday low 4759.60
Overnight high 4795.50 | Overnight low 4752.70
Overnight POC 4785.00 | Prev week high 4821.00
CL week POC and yesterday POC are both at 98. That’s the anchor. GC is building a base in the 4780-4812 zone with week POC and yesterday POC converging at 4812.
What I’m Watching
ES: The profile migration is real. Three sessions building higher. If we hold 6850 (overnight low, also overnight VAL) after CPI and start accepting above 6876 (yesterday’s high and the week’s high), the next targets are 6900 (heavy options interest) then 6930 (top of the expected move). The 6850 level has been tested twice overnight and held both times. If it breaks, the air pocket down to 6815 (week POC) is where you’d expect support. Below that is 6800 where the week’s base was built.
NQ: 25250 area is yesterday’s high and roughly where overnight has been hovering. Above it with acceptance, targets are 25300, 25400, then 25500 (heavy options interest). Below 25200 (overnight low and overnight VAL), first stop is 25080-25155 where the week’s volume is heavy. Below 25080 there’s a real air pocket to 24960 (yesterday’s low) and then the whole ceasefire gap opens up to 24350 (prev week high). NQ is the one that moves fastest if CPI is hot.
CL: 98 is the anchor. The week POC and yesterday POC are the same number. Above 100 with a hold and the ceasefire premium isn’t out. Below 97 (overnight low) and we’re heading back to 95 where the excess low from earlier this week lives. The 95-100 range is confirmed until one side breaks with volume behind it.
GC: Building a base at 4785 overnight POC with yesterday POC and week POC both at 4812. Above 4812 and gold is reclaiming the week’s value. First target would be 4826 (yesterday’s high) then 4850 where we sold off hard earlier in the week. Below 4753 (overnight low) the base breaks and 4720 (this week’s absolute low) is next. Below that is prev week POC at 4620.
The White Van Stuff
ES options interest is concentrated at 6900 calls and 6500 puts. Wide collar. Expected daily range is 6796-6930, so the top of that range lines up almost exactly with the call interest. Same-day put interest at 6775. If CPI drives us below 6800, that 6775 level is where things accelerate.(it didnt)
NQ has options at 25500 calls and 24000 puts. The same-day levels are tighter: 25250 calls, 24750 puts. That same-day call level at 25250 is right where we’re trading. A breakout above it would trigger covering.
CL options: 100 calls and 90 puts. Expected move 92-104. GC: 5000 calls and 4400 puts. Expected move 4737-4899.
VIX at 21.04, down from 25.78 earlier this week. Volatility is compressing. Size normal.
Crude and Gold
Crude has been the barometer all week. Every push above 100 has failed. If CPI comes in soft and the ceasefire narrative holds, crude should drift back toward 95 and equities run. If CPI is hot and the Iran situation escalates again, crude breaks 100 and equities have a problem. The 98 POC is the line. CL and ES have been inversely correlated all week. Watch crude to know equities.
Gold is trying to build a base after the sharp selloff from 4850. The 4785-4812 zone has two sessions of volume now. If this base holds and gold reclaims 4812, the 4850 area is the first real test. If the base breaks below 4753, there’s nothing until 4720, then 4620 (prev week POC). Gold is the second derivative of the ceasefire trade: if rates expectations shift on CPI, gold moves first.
What Could Go Wrong
1. NQ loses 25080 (week POC): that’s 200+ points below current price and the gap between here and there is mostly air. If CPI triggers a flush, 25080 is the line between “pullback” and “the ceasefire move is unwinding.”
2. ES can’t hold 6850: the overnight low that’s held twice. If it breaks on CPI, 6815 (week POC) is first, then 6800. Below 6800 the whole week’s structure is suspect.
3. CL breaks 100 and holds: if crude gets above 100 and stays there, the equity rally is on borrowed time. Watch the crude chart before making any ES/NQ decisions.
The Plan
ES: 6850 is the floor. Two overnight tests, both held. If buyers show up again after CPI and we build above yesterday’s high at 6876, the profile is migrating up and targets are 6900 then 6930. If 6850 breaks with sellers behind it, first stop is 6815 where the week POC sits, then 6800 where the real volume base was built. Below 6800 the week falls apart.
NQ: 25200 overnight low is the near-term line. Hold it and build above 25250, targets are 25300, 25400, 25500 step by step. Lose 25200 and the first real volume is at 25080-25155. Below 25080 there’s an air pocket all the way to 24960 (yesterday’s low). Below that the ceasefire gap opens to 24350. The further NQ is from 25080, the bigger the snap-back risk.
CL: 98 is the anchor, same number for a week now. Above 100 with a hold, the ceasefire premium isn’t out and equities should notice. Below 97 we’re heading to 95 where the week’s excess low lives. Don’t be a hero in either direction until one side breaks with volume.
GC: 4785 overnight POC is the near-term anchor. Above 4812 (week POC + yesterday POC) gold is reclaiming value, targets 4826 then 4850. Below 4753 the base breaks, air to 4720, then 4620 where prev week POC sits. The CPI print matters most here because gold trades rate expectations directly.
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