GM Friends. Twelve sessions up on NQ. Twelve. ES printed a fresh all-time high overnight at 7095.5 and is parked right under the call ceiling at 7100. Today is monthly OPEX. Crude got hauled out behind the woodshed AGAIN, gapped from a 93.15 close down to 87 overnight, no clean catalyst on the wires beyond more Iran ceasefire risk premium getting unwound. But OPEX day with equities at All Time Highs is exactly the kind of setup where the buyers either put their money where their mouth is and rip us through 7100, or this thing pins and fades back into yesterday’s value. I plan to do nothing in Today’s session.
When traveling, there’s nothing worse than being patted down in a TSA line while managing a trade moving against you because you moved your stop. If you’ve had a good week, this probably isn’t the day to be a hero.
Yesterday’s Sessions
ES opened at 7071.50, traded a clean 43-point range, made the high at 7089.25 in the afternoon, and closed at 7076.50 right on POC. Yesterday’s POC at 7077.75, value area 7060.50-7079.75. The close right on POC tells you who won. P-shape acceptance into the highs. Value migrated up another 30 handles from Wednesday.
NQ opened at 26439, ranged 287 points, made a high at 26562.75, and closed mid-value at 26484.25. Yesterday’s POC at 26480, value area 26379-26521. Closed inside value, no clean lean from the profile alone. The high at 26562 is the line, and we have not cleared it overnight.
CL opened at 92.20, tested 91.88 early, ripped to 93.93, and closed at 93.15. Yesterday’s POC at 93.41, value area 92.62-93.91. Looked like crude was stabilizing and starting to rebuild the risk premium. Then the overnight happened.
GC opened at 4839.80, pushed to 4846.20, sold off to 4792.10, and closed at 4814.50. Yesterday’s POC at 4814.30, value area 4805.50-4827.80. Sellers showed up at the highs and walked it back into value. The close right on POC means the conversation ended in the middle.
The Overnight
ES opened Globex at 7079.50, pushed to a new all-time high at 7095.50, balanced 7075-7095 most of the night, and is sitting at 7091.50. 49,778 Globex contracts. Above yesterday’s VAH at 7079.75. Above yesterday’s POC. The overnight accepted higher and is parked under the 7100 call cap.
NQ opened at 26463.25, made a high at 26547, dipped to 26440, and is sitting at 26521.50. Session VWAP at 26484. Coiled right at yesterday’s VAH at 26521. Has NOT cleared yesterday’s high at 26562. NQ is stuck under the call cap at 26500 right where it sits.
CL opened Globex at 89.57, that’s a $3.58 gap down from yesterday’s 93.15 close. Pushed up to 90.34 early, then collapsed to 87.02, sitting at 87.97 now. The chart looks like a guy who jumped off a roof. No clean catalyst on the wires beyond the ceasefire risk premium continuing to unwind.
GC opened at 4823.70, pushed to 4827.20, sold off to 4800.00, and is sitting at 4805. Right on yesterday’s VAL at 4805.50 and the same-day options floor at 4800. Normal pullback so far. The 4800 line is the test.
The Map
ES is parked above yesterday’s VAH at 7079.75 and below the call ceiling at 7100. The overnight built value at 7079-7087. Two sessions of POC agreement at 7077-7079. that’s where the conversation is happening. Below 7077, yesterday’s close at 7076.50 and yesterday’s VAL at 7060.50 are the next two shelves. Lose 7060 (also the week POC, two-source line) and there’s air to 7046 (yesterday’s low).
NQ is coiled at yesterday’s VAH and the same-day call cap at 26500, with yesterday’s high at 26562 sitting just above as the next resistance. Yesterday’s POC and the week POC are both at 26480. double POC agreement, that’s the line on the downside. Lose 26480 and the next shelf is 26379 (yesterday’s VAL), then 26275 (yesterday’s low). The overnight low at 26440 is already below where price sits, so the upside-or-fade is pretty cleanly defined.
CL has built a brand new value area overnight that doesn’t touch yesterday’s. Yesterday was 91-94. Today is 87-90. That’s a structural break, not a wick. Yesterday’s value is now the upside resistance gap. The overnight low at 87.02 is the floor. Below that, week low is 84.70. there’s nothing in between except air.
GC is sitting on yesterday’s VAL at 4805.50 and the same-day options floor at 4800. The overnight rotated 4800-4827, mostly inside yesterday’s value. This is normal pullback action. The 4800 line is what tells you whether buyers step in here or whether this turns into a real flush. Below 4800, the magnet level at 4790 is the next stop, and below that 4735 is a long way down.
What I’m Watching
ES: Does 7077 hold as the floor? That’s yesterday’s POC and basically also yesterday’s close. Above 7095 (overnight high) and there’s open space to the upside expected range top at 7141. Right above is the call cap at 7100. A clean break of 7100 with sellers covering can accelerate. Below 7077, yesterday’s VAL at 7060 is the first real shelf. Below 7060, 7046 is yesterday’s low and below that you fall into a gap. I want to see the first 30 minutes of RTH before adding longs at the cap.
NQ: 26562 is the line. Above with conviction and the upside expected range top at 26800 opens up. NQ at the call cap on OPEX day is the trade either way. If 26500 holds and we break 26562, that’s a real continuation signal. If the cap holds and we lose 26480 (the double POC), there’s a 100-point gap to 26379. Below that, 26275 is yesterday’s low.
CL: 87. Thats my LIS Today. The overnight built a brand new value area below yesterday. If 87.02 holds, the bounce target is back to the gap at 88-90, then yesterday’s value at 92-93. If 87 breaks with sellers behind it, there’s air down to 85 and then 84.70 (week low). I am NOT catching this falling knife. Wait for stabilization. Wait for the first hour to print a low and hold it.
GC: 4800 is the line. Hold here and we get back to 4815-4827 (yesterday’s value). Lose 4800 and the magnet at 4790 is the first stop, then 4735 below. Gold has been the “Iran ceasefire is going to fail” trade and if crude is signaling the ceasefire is actually holding (this morning’s crash), gold has a problem.
The White Van Stuff
The options positioning on equities has the call ceiling at 7100 ES, exactly above where we sit. The same-day cap is also 7100, so the standard cap and the same-day cap are stacked. That’s a double layer of sellers right above. Same-day put floor at 7040, downside floor at 7013. Heavy interest clusters at 7100, 7040, and the magnet level at 6905 (way below). Upside expected range top at 7141.
NQ: Same-day call cap at 26500, exactly where we sit. Standard call ceiling also 26500. Stacked. Same-day put floor at 26325. Upside expected top 26802. Heavy interest cluster at 26500 and 26325. Below those, the magnet level at 25290 is way below current price. Basically, a dead structure.
CL: Today’s MQ futures key levels file errored, so this is yesterday’s pull. Standard call ceiling 103.86 (way above), standard floor 88.28 (we are below it). Same-day cap 93.47 (already crushed), same-day floor 96.59 (also through). When the same-day floor sits well above the current price, the structure has broken and the options data is repricing crude lower. Heavy interest clusters at 95, 94.50, 91.40 above and 87, 89, 88.80 below. The 87 cluster aligns with the overnight low.
GC: Same-day call cap at 4850. Same-day put floor at 4800 (sitting right on it). Standard ceiling 5000 (way above), standard floor 4400 (way below). Magnet at 4790, just below the current price. Heavy interest clusters at 4850, 4880, and 4790. The 4800 floor is the test. If it gives, the magnet at 4790 takes over.
CL Options Levels (yesterday’s pull - probably wont update in-time for this post)
The Calendar
- Fed Barkin speech, 3:15 PM CT
- Fed Waller speech, 5:00 PM CT
What Could Go Wrong
ES rejects 7100. The call cap is the call cap for a reason. If the cap holds and we lose 7077 with sellers behind it, there’s a quick path back to 7060 (week POC + yesterday VAL stacked), then 7046 (yesterday’s low). Twelve sessions up. No real pullback. Extended moves snap back hard.
NQ rejects 26500. Same setup as ES but more extended. NQ has run 12 straight up. The longest streak since 2009. Eventually, it ends. If 26500 caps and we lose 26480 (double POC), the gap to 26379 is 100 points. Below 26379, 26275 (yesterday’s low) is the next real volume.
CL bounces hard. If a Hormuz headline hits and crude rips back to 90 in 10 minutes, equities feel it. Crude has been the tell-all week. The ceasefire-is-failing trade is what put a bid under gold and a chill into equities all month. If oil signals the ceasefire is back in trouble, that flow flips.
Headline risk on Iran. The whole macro is hostage to a single news flash. Trump says something. Iran says something. Hormuz changes status. Whatever it is, it moves the tape in 60 seconds.
The Plan
ES: If ES holds 7077 (yesterday’s POC) and breaks 7095 (overnight high + week VAH stacked), there’s open space above into price discovery. If 7077 breaks, it’s 7060 (week POC + yesterday’s VAL stacked), then 7046 (yesterday’s low), then a gap to 6940 (week VAL). The double POC at 7077-7079 is the line.
NQ: If NQ holds 26480 (yesterday’s POC + week POC stacked) and clears 26562 (yesterday’s high), it’s open space above. If 26480 breaks, 26379 (yesterday’s VAL), then 26275 (yesterday’s low), then a gap to 25734 (week VAL).
CL: If CL holds 87.02 (overnight low) and reclaims the gap into 90 (today’s session VAH), the recovery target is back into yesterday’s value at 92.62-93.91 with yesterday’s POC at 93.41 as the magnet. If 87 breaks, 84.70 (week low) is the next real volume.
GC: If GC holds 4800 (overnight low + yesterday’s VAL stacked) and clears 4827 (yesterday’s VAH + overnight high stacked), targets are 4864 (week VAH), 4895 (week high). If 4800 breaks, 4786 (week VAL) is the next shelf, then 4735.
No trades for me Today. Goodluck. Trade Safe. See you all Sunday Night for The Huddle. I am off to Miami to hang with Ninjatrader.
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Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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