Nothing like working out and having all the new all-time high triggers going off on your phone during pre-market. Yesterday was a 474-point round trip on NQ that cooked both sides. Wide range, failed high, closed back near the lows. Then the overnight picked up the pen and ran it another 340 points higher before the bell. I’ve been bullish since NQ 23k and I’m still bullish here, but we’re in the part of the tape where everybody is long the same thing. Respect that. Also, respect that we’re sitting at all-time highs on NQ/ES probably heading into the weekend. Every time you think sellers are going to take the ball back, they get an enema from the bulls.
Yesterday’s Sessions
ES opened 7152.25, ripped to 7181.5, flushed to 7079.25, then clawed back to close 7142.0. POC built at 7166 with value 7131-7180.5. 102-point range and messy. Both sides had the trade and both sides got stopped out.
NQ opened 27014.25 and made the day’s high at 27156 early, then flushed 475 points to 26681.25 before buyers showed up. Closed 26926 right on top of POC 26925. Value 26816.25-27065.75. Same story as ES, louder.
CL opened 93.22 and ripped to 98.40 before settling back to 96.40. POC 96.60, VAH 98.39, VAL 94.35. A 5.44 range in crude which is absurd but also what you signed up for.
GC opened 4748.70, never caught a meaningful bid, trended lower into the close at 4712.80. POC 4750, VAH 4758.2, VAL 4725.1. Gold cannot get out of its own way.
The Overnight
ES is 7174.25 after a 7144.5-7189.5 Globex. Inside yesterday’s value, above yesterday POC. Quiet compared to NQ.
NQ is 27292.5 after ripping from 27054.5 to 27363.75 overnight. Above yesterday’s high, above yesterday’s VAH, into fresh territory. This is the move. ES is tagging along without the same enthusiasm.
CL Globex chopped 96.01 to 97.85 to 93.63, currently 94.48. Settled just below yesterday VAL. Soft read.
GC Globex ran 4689.60 to 4733.90, currently 4723.60. Trying to reclaim yesterday’s value area and hasn’t yet.
The Map
Price sits between yesterday POC and yesterday VAH, trying to push. The decision area is 7180-7189: yesterday VAH + yesterday high + overnight high stacked. Acceptance above and there’s very little between here and 7212. Rejection and the cascade back through 7151 and 7137 is wide open.
NQ is already above every level from yesterday. The defensible support on the way back down is 27156 flipping to support, and below that 27065. Below 26925 is where the overnight squeeze fails.
The 96-96.60 band is the magnet. Reclaim it and 97-98 is back in play. Fail and 93.18 is where the week’s volume shows up. Below that, no man’s land until the high 80s.
Gold is stuck just below yesterday VAL. Reclaim line is 4725-4733 and above that 4750 is the anchor. Lose the overnight low 4681 and 4680 is next, then the floor opens.
What I’m Watching
ES. Does the 7180-7189 ceiling reject, or does NQ drag ES through. Acceptance above 7189 and ES joins the all-time-high party. Failed push and fade through 7166 is the warning, 7137 is the line.
NQ. Does 27156 hold as support. If yes, continuation toward 27363 and beyond. If no, back inside yesterday’s range and the overnight squeeze gets undone.
CL. Does 94.35 hold. Yesterday VAL is the line between rotation back to 96 and a break to 93.18.
GC. Does 4725 get reclaimed. Without it, another push to 4680 and the long crowd gets more uncomfortable.
The White Van Stuff
ES. Options data is painting the most bullish setup of the month. Call ceiling at 7200 doubles as today’s cap. Upside expected top 7212. Heavy interest stacks at 7210, 7216, and 7260 above the cap, which is where covering accelerates. Magnet today is 7125, downside floor 7074.59 (right at yesterday’s low). Standard floor 7000.
NQ. Same Very High Bullish setup, volatility is low. Call ceiling 27000 and upside expected top 27274.9. Price is already above both. Very heavy interest cluster at 27287 sits right on top of current price. Above that, interest thins to 27400 and 27583. Same-day pivot 26810, same-day floor 26800, standard floor all the way down at 25000.
CL. Crude is pinned on the same-day cap. Call ceiling 94, same-day floor 94.5, current 94.48. Literal pin. Magnet 89.25, standard floor 85, upside expected top 101.15. Squeeze through 94.5 and interest stacks at 95, 97, 98. Fail and the floor at 89.25 is where the options data says it wants to live.
GC. Less directional. Call ceiling 4982, standard floor 4633. Today’s cap 4753, today’s pivot 4733. Price just below the pivot. Reclaim it and gold is back at its anchor. Fail and you’re into the heavy downside interest stack at 4688, 4673, 4658, 4653 all clustered within a few dollars.
The Calendar
- 9:00 AM CT: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (April)
- 4:00 PM CT: Baker Hughes Rig Count
Light day. Only Michigan can move equities, and it’s a final revision so the surprise factor is small.
What Could Go Wrong
- NQ fails 27156 on any pullback. The overnight squeeze gets undone fast and late longs get trapped.
- ES rejects at 7180-7189 again and rolls back through 7166. Yesterday POC flips to supply and 7079 becomes magnetic.
- CL loses 93.63 with volume. No structural support until 89.25 and crude has been following through on breaks all month.
The Plan
ES: The trade is the reaction at 7180-7189. Acceptance above and the upside is 7212 first, then air. Inside yesterday’s value (7131-7180.5) it’s rotation and sloppy. Lose 7166 and the cascade runs 7151, 7142, 7137, 7131, 7122.5, and yesterday low at 7079.25 is the real line.
NQ: Above 27156 the plan is continuation. Overnight high 27363 is the first target, above that it’s price discovery. Back inside yesterday’s range and below 27065 is a warning. Below 26925 the overnight squeeze is dead and the cascade runs 26816, 26730, 26681, 26599.
CL: The line is 94.35. Hold it and the rotation back through 96.40 and 96.68 is in play, 97-98 the upper band. Lose 93.63 with volume and the cascade runs week VAH 93.18, then week POC 89.70. Below that you’re trading the summer lows.
GC: The reclaim is 4725.1. Get back above yesterday VAL and the next stop is 4750. Fail and the downside is yesterday close 4712.80, today POC 4700, week VAL 4695.40, overnight low 4681.60, yesterday low 4680. Below 4680 the bid disappears.
Deep breath. Calm mind. Go have fun out there. Remember, sellers have small hands.
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