ES printed the highest price it has ever traded yesterday and then spent the entire night between 7820 and 7829.50, which is a strange way to celebrate. Gold sank to 4365.60 in the dark and bought the whole thing back, crude tagged 83.00 and fell out of the bottom of its own overnight value, and the indexes just sat there watching. I lean long ES while 7823.25 holds and I want NQ to keep 30215 under it.
The Tape
ES opened 7793.25 Thursday, ran 7838.50 for the highest print this contract has ever made, and closed 7823.25 right on its 7823 POC with value from 7807 to 7829.25. The overnight opened 7825, kept a 7820 low and a 7829.50 high, and built value 7823.25 to 7827.75 on a 7824.50 print. It trades 7827.75, at the ceiling of that overnight value and under Thursday’s 7829.25 ceiling. Hold 7823.25 and 7829.25 with 7829.50 stacked on it is the first job, then 7838.50 and clean air. Lose 7823.25 and 7820 the low of the night catches, then 7807 where Thursday’s value began with 7794 the week’s ceiling under it.
NQ opened 29910.25 Thursday, ran 30272.75 for the highest trade of the month, and closed 30194.50 under a 30215 POC it could not hold, value 30159.50 to 30259.25. The overnight opened 30210.75, took 30124 out early, then climbed the rest of the night with value 30157.25 to 30238.75 on a 30200 print. It trades 30255, back above the POC it lost and into the high end of Thursday’s value. Hold 30215 and 30259.25 with 30262 the overnight high on top of it come first, then 30272.75 and nothing structural until 30463 July’s high. Lose 30215 and 30200 the overnight print catches, then 30157.25 and 30124 where the night bottomed, with 30076.20 July’s ceiling under them.
CL opened 81.22 Thursday, ran 82.74, and closed 81.27 on an 81.15 POC with value from 80.11 to 81.98. The overnight built the whole thing upstairs, 81.68 to 82.93 on an 82.79 print under a 83.00 high, then fell out of the bottom and printed 80.69. It trades 81.72, sitting at the base of a value area it spent all night building above. Hold 81.68 and 81.98 Thursday’s ceiling and 82.14 the week’s print are the work, then 82.74 and 83.00. Lose 81.68 and 81.46 August’s ceiling catches, then 81.24 the week’s floor and 81.15 the print, with 80.69 and 80.09 Thursday’s low beneath them.
GC opened 4443.30 Thursday, could not hold any of it, and closed 4406.20 under its own 4410.90 value low with the POC stranded at 4413.80. The overnight sold to 4365.60, a tick over the low the week already had in, and bought every bit of it back with value 4367.50 to 4405 on a 4385 print. It trades 4407, back at Thursday’s close and right where the night’s value topped out. Hold 4405 and 4410.90 with 4413.80 the stranded print above it is the first job, then 4419.50 and 4432.30 last week’s ceiling. Lose 4405 and 4385 the overnight POC catches, then 4382 where August and the week both did their business, with 4367.50 and 4365.50 under it.
The Calendar
Friday, August 14 (all times CT):
- 7:30 Retail sales for July, headline, ex autos and the control group, with business inventories alongside
- 8:00 Fed speaker
- 9:00 Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary, with the inflation expectations that ride with it
- 12:00 Weekly rig count
The 7:30 number sets the open and the 9:00 survey gets the back half of the morning.
The Plan
ES:
7823.25 is where the overnight value bottomed and it is stacked on 7823, the print Thursday closed on. Above it 7827.75 the overnight ceiling and 7829.25 where Thursday’s value topped out come first, with 7829.50 the top of the night sitting on that pair. Clear them and 7838.50 is the highest price ES has ever traded and there is nothing structural over it. Lose 7823.25 and 7820 where the night bottomed catches, then 7807 where Thursday’s value began, with 7794 the week’s ceiling and 7785.25 Thursday’s low under them. Those open 7775 the POC August built with 7773.75 the week’s stacked on it, and beneath that shelf 7765.75 last week’s POC and 7749 the week’s value low are what is left.
NQ:
30215 is the POC Thursday stranded at the close and NQ has taken it back trading 30255. Above it 30259.25 Thursday’s ceiling and 30262 where the night topped are the first work, then 30272.75, the highest trade this month has printed. Clear that and there is nothing between it and 30463, the high July made. Lose 30215 and 30200 the overnight print catches, then 30157.25 where the night’s value began with 30159.50 Thursday’s on the same shelf. Under that 30124 the overnight low opens 30076.20 July’s ceiling, then 30015.20 last week’s and 29965.20 August’s, with 29942.50 the week’s ceiling sitting over 29880, the POC this week built.
CL:
81.68 is the floor of the value crude spent all night building above and it trades 81.72, right on it. Hold it and 81.98 Thursday’s ceiling is the gate, then 82.14 the week’s print and 82.74 Thursday’s high with 82.79 the overnight POC on it. Clear those and 82.93 and 83.00 top the overnight range, with 83.92 the week’s ceiling and 84.50 July’s POC over them. Lose 81.68 and 81.46 August’s ceiling catches, then 81.24 the week’s floor and 81.15 the print Thursday left. Under that 80.69 the overnight low and 80.09 Thursday’s low are the gate, and there is nothing structural underneath until 78.73 last week’s ceiling and 76, the POC August and last week both built.
GC:
4405 is where the night’s value topped out and gold trades 4407, a hair over it. Hold it and 4410.90 the value low Thursday closed under is the gate, then 4413.80 the POC it stranded and 4419.50 the high the night made. Clear those and 4432.30 last week’s ceiling, 4441 Thursday’s and 4460.30 its high are what is left under 4463.20, where the week’s value ends. Lose 4405 and 4385 the overnight print catches, then 4382 where both August and this week did their business with 4380.30 the week’s floor on it. Under that 4367.50 and 4365.50, the low of the week, are the gate to 4301 last week’s POC and 4300 August’s floor.
The White Van Stuff
Both index books are as stacked as they have been all month and both cages tightened up overnight, which is most of the reason ES and NQ sat still while the other two did all the traveling. Crude is the one that got through its own lid and stayed over it. Gold’s book is the loosest of the four and its band was wide enough to hold everything the night just did.
ES: ES is over 7820, today’s pivot, with the heaviest interest in the whole book sitting at 7825 where price already is. The same-day lid is 7850 and the structural cap is 7900. Price is 7827.75, through the pivot and under the lid.
NQ: NQ’s same-day floor moved all the way up to 30230, a few ticks under price, and its lid overhead is 30300. That is a narrow cage and price is inside it. Price is 30255, over the floor and under the lid.
CL: Crude cleared 81, its same-day lid, and it has held over it all night. 83.00 is the heaviest mark in the book and the top of the day’s band sits right on it at 83.13, which is exactly where the overnight run stopped. Price is 81.72, over the lid.
GC: Gold’s overnight low at 4365.60 came in just over 4346.71, the bottom of the day’s band, so the entire dump and recovery happened inside the range the book gave it. 4350 is the heaviest mark under price and 4450 is the next one over it. Price is 4407, back over the 4400.
Hold on to your butts.
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