The Tape
ES opened Thursday at 7698, ran to 7720, and sold the rest of the day to close 7665.50, under its own value low at 7678.75 with all of its volume stranded up at the 7703.75 POC. The night opened 7669, dipped to 7661.25, and walked it back to 7704.75. It trades 7698, back inside Thursday’s value, but the overnight built its own volume down at 7668.25 and never brought it up here. Bull case is 7694.50 overnight VAH holds as a floor and 7713.50 August VAL comes back, with 7720 right behind it. Bear case is 7686 week VAL cracks and the ladder runs 7678.75 Thursday VAL, 7668.25 overnight POC, then 7657.75 the low of the week.
NQ closed Thursday at 29307 for a fifth straight red session, in the bottom half of its own value with the day’s business done at 29300. The night opened 29327, put the low in at 29274, and ran the whole thing to 29539.25, clear of Thursday’s 29470.25 high. The part that matters is where the volume went, because the overnight POC printed at 29525 on the way up instead of staying down at the lows, and it trades 29498.25 just under it. Bull case is 29358 overnight VAL holds and the stack at 29536 to 29550 goes, where overnight VAH, last week’s value low and August POC all print together. Bear case is 29358 fails and it runs 29300 Thursday POC, 29289 Thursday VAL, then 29274 where the night bottomed.
CL did nothing Thursday, worked 85.68 to 87.01 and closed 86.60 sitting right on its own POC. The night pushed it to 87.52, a tick under the 87.69 that has capped the whole week, and handed it straight back. It trades 86.72, inside Thursday’s value and inside the overnight’s, with session VWAP at 86.61 underneath it. Bull case is 86.92 overnight VAH goes and 87.01 then 87.52 come back into play, with 87.69 capping it. Bear case is 86.31 Thursday VAL fails and it works 86.07 overnight VAL, 85.79 the low of the night, then 85.08 July VAH.
GC opened Thursday at 4522.20, printed its low in the first hour, and never went back there, closing 4584.90 near the high with value dragged up to 4580. The night kept going, 4565.30 up to 4661.90, which is the most anybody has paid for gold this quarter. It trades 4640.10, above every level Thursday built, inside a fresh value area that runs 4603.60 to 4661.60. Bull case is 4620 overnight POC holds and 4661.90 goes, and above that there is nothing left on the chart. Bear case is 4603.60 loses and it works back to 4597.20 Thursday’s high, 4580 the POC, then 4565.30 the overnight low.
The Calendar
8:45 AM CT. S&P Global flash manufacturing, services and composite PMIs
12:00 PM CT. Baker Hughes rig count
The PMIs land fifteen minutes after the bell, and they are the only thing on this list that gets to reprice the open.
The Plan
ES:
ES has to hold 7694.50, where overnight value ends, for this reclaim to be worth anything. Above it the work is 7704.75 the overnight high, then 7713.50 August VAL, then 7719.50 Thursday VAH with 7720 the high printing on top of it. Take those and 7725.50 week POC is next, with 7743.50 last week’s value low behind it. Below 7694.50 the first thing to lose is 7686 week VAL, then 7678.75 Thursday VAL, then 7668.25 where the night did all of its business, with 7665.50 the close and 7662.25 overnight VAL stacked under it. Lose 7657.75 the week low and there is nothing worth naming until 7611 July VAH and 7546 July POC.
NQ:
NQ is the one that actually did something overnight and 29358 is the line it did it from. Above 29358 the whole thing gets decided in one stack, 29525 overnight POC then 29536 overnight VAH, 29539.25 the overnight high, 29540 last week’s value low and 29550 August POC all printing on top of each other. Clear that pile and 29600 is next with the week POC and July POC on the same number, then 29699.20 week VAH. Below 29358 Thursday’s entire range is underneath, 29300 the POC then 29292.80 August VAL and 29289 Thursday VAL, with 29278.50 week VAL and 29274 the overnight low stacked beneath them. Lose 29202.50 where Thursday’s low and the week low print together and the map is empty until 28448.20 July VAL and 28258.20 the August low.
CL:
Crude is back inside everything it built and 86.92, the top of overnight value, is the trigger. Above 86.92 the first work is 87.01 Thursday’s high, then 87.52 the overnight high, then 87.66 August VAH with 87.69 where the week and the month both topped right on it. Through 87.69 and 88.07 July’s high is the last thing standing before open air. Below 86.92 it works back through 86.60 Thursday POC and 86.53 week VAH, then 86.31 Thursday VAL and 86.07 overnight VAL, with 85.79 the overnight low under those. Lose 85.79 and the ladder is 85.08 July VAH, then 84.38 where week POC and August POC print together, then 83.56 week VAL with 82.02 last week’s VAH beneath it.
GC:
Gold is trading above everything and 4603.60, the low of today’s value, is the only number underneath it that means anything today. Above where it sits, 4646.40 the session high is first, then 4661.60 today’s value high with 4661.70 the week and August high and 4661.90 the overnight high all on the same print. Through 4661.90 there is no structure left, which makes anything up there a discovery move and not a level trade. Below 4603.60 the catch is 4600.70 August VAH, then 4597.20 Thursday’s high, then 4584.90 the close and 4580 the POC, with 4565.30 where the night bottomed under them. Lose 4565.30 and it runs 4545 week POC and 4542.60 Thursday VAL, then 4473.10 last week’s VAH and 4450 where last week’s POC and the August POC print on the same number.
The White Van Stuff
Everything the crowd owns is in commodities right now and almost nothing is left in paper. Oil positioning sits at the very top of its own year with energy right behind it, gold and silver up near theirs, while the S&P, the Nasdaq, small caps and bonds are all parked in the bottom fifth of where they have been for twelve months. That is why the metal keeps running and the index bounces keep stalling at the first shelf they reach.
ES
ES is sitting exactly on the magnet at 7700, which is also today’s pivot, so the whole thing is balanced on one number. The lid is close overhead, 7720 today’s cap then 7725 nearest above, and the band tops out at 7731.90. It trades 7698, a tick under the pivot.
NQ
NQ ran all night and stopped dead on today’s cap at 29500. The magnet at 29370 and today’s pivot at 29240 are both underneath it now, which is the other side of where they sat yesterday morning. It trades 29498.25, right on the lid, with the band running up to 29706.64.
CL
Crude cleared today’s cap at 85 and has stayed above it, so that number works as a floor now instead of a lid. Today’s put floor at 86.50 is right under where it trades and the heaviest interest on the board is up at 88, with 88.70 the band’s high just past it. It trades 86.72, between the 86.50 floor and 87.
GC
Gold is above its structural cap at 4510 and it is not anywhere close to it anymore. It spent the night pushing into the top of the expected band at 4643.18, and the heaviest interest below is 4600 before it thins out down to 4550. It trades 4640.10, at the top of the band with 4650 the first thing above it.
Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.
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