Crude ran 83.77 in the dark and gave back every tick, then stopped dead on 82.34. That is August’s heaviest price and this week’s landed on the same number. ES and NQ both walked up to Thursday’s high overnight and both quit shy of it. Chasing an index into a Fed chair speech is somebody else’s trade.
The Tape
ES opened 7716.25 Thursday, ran 7755.75 and closed 7741.25 right on its 7741.75 print with value from 7720.50 to 7745.25. The overnight opened 7733.75, kept a 7727.25 low, built 7734.75 to 7747.50 on a 7740 print and stopped at 7755, just under the high it was chasing. It trades 7755.75, up through that shelf at the open, but the night left its print at 7740 under Thursday’s and the week built its entire value 7661 to 7713, so there is no volume base anywhere near where price is now. Hold 7755 and 7775 August’s print is the next job with 7810 the ceiling above that. Fail back under it and 7747.50 catches, then 7745.25 and 7741.75, with 7734.75 and 7720.50 Thursday’s value low beneath them.
NQ opened 29524.25 Thursday, ran 29704.25 and closed 29692 near the top of the day on a 29575.50 print with value from 29503 to 29630.75. The overnight opened 29635.50, tagged 29707.25 early and slid the rest of the night, building 29595 to 29654.50 on a 29605 print. It sits on 29683.50 last week’s ceiling, back at Thursday’s close and working the overnight high it could not hold in the dark. The print it built on landed just over 29600, now last week’s POC, August’s and July’s, three months on one price, so the night did its business on top of that shelf instead of under it. Clear 29683.50 and the 29708 stack is the only thing left over it; lose 29600 and 29578.25 the low of the night catches, then 29575.50 and 29503 the floor of Thursday’s value.
CL opened 82.52 Thursday, ran 84.26 and closed 83.63 with the print stranded down at 82.70 and value from 82.01 to 83.56. The overnight opened 83.67, made 83.77 early, built 82.79 to 83.32 on an 83.10 print then fell out the bottom of all of it, with the pit doing 82.25 to 82.67 since. It trades 82.65, holding over 82.34, the heaviest price of the week and the heaviest of August on the same tick. It already poked 82.25 under that number and came back, so the shelf is getting tested rather than lost, and what I do not have is anybody defending it with volume yet. Hold 82.34 and 82.70 Thursday’s print is first with 82.79 and 83.10 over the top, and under 82.34 the 82.01 base of Thursday’s value catches, then 81.99 the low, with 81.25 the week’s floor beneath them.
GC opened 4648.20 Thursday, sold to 4616.20 for the lowest trade the week has seen and closed 4662.70 near the top on a 4665 print. The overnight ran 4667.90, dumped to 4623 and bought all of it back, building 4640.30 to 4666.20 on a 4650.10 print. That print landed on the exact tick where this week’s value bottoms out, and two nights running gold has sold into the 4616 to 4623 pocket and had every bit of it bought back, which is a failed breakdown that has now happened twice. Gold trades 4660.10, back inside Thursday’s value and leaning on 4662.70 where August’s value tops out and Thursday closed, so it has repaired the damage without clearing anything yet. Take 4662.70 and 4666.20 with 4667.90 stacked above it is the work, then 4671.20 Thursday’s ceiling, and under 4650.10 the 4640.30 floor catches, then 4638.40 Thursday’s value low and 4623 where it bottomed.
The Calendar
Friday, August 28 (all times CT):
- 8:45 Chicago PMI for August
- 9:00 The Fed chair’s keynote from Jackson Hole
- 9:00 Michigan consumer sentiment final, with the inflation expectations that ride with it
- 9:00 Preliminary annual revision to payrolls
- 11:30 Another policymaker speaks
- 12:00 Weekly rig count
The 9:00 keynote owns the morning. Everything else on that list is filler next to it.
The Plan
ES:
ES is up through 7755, the shelf the night stopped on, and through Thursday’s 7755.75 sitting on it, two runs at one price in two sessions and it took both at the open. What it does not have is anything underneath, because the week built its value 7661 to 7713 and the night left its print down at 7740. Hold 7755 and 7775 is the print August built with 7810 its ceiling above that, then 7824.50 last week’s high and 7838.50 the highest August has traded. Fail back under 7755 and 7747.50 the top of the night’s value catches it first, then 7745.25 Thursday’s ceiling with 7744 last week’s stacked on it and 7741.75 the print. Those open 7734.75 and 7720.50 where Thursday’s value bottoms, then 7713 the week’s ceiling and 7690 the week’s print with August’s value low on it.
NQ:
29600 is the number, and it is three months of heaviest volume on one price now that August has settled its print there alongside last week and July. NQ built the whole night just over that shelf on 29605, which is the first constructive thing it has done at this level all week. Above, 29654.50 caps the overnight and 29683.50 last week’s ceiling is the next job, then the 29708 stack where the week high, the overnight high and Thursday’s all land on one shelf, with 29931.50 August’s ceiling in clean air over it. Lose 29600 and 29595 goes with it, then 29578.25 the overnight low and 29575.50 Thursday’s print. Under those 29503 the bottom of Thursday’s value opens 29455.20 the week’s ceiling, then 29424.25 the low and 29292.20 where last week’s value began.
CL:
Crude is holding just over 82.34, and that tick is the fulcrum because this week’s heaviest price and August’s heaviest landed on it together. That agreement is why the 82.25 poke this morning got bought back instead of extended. Hold it and 82.70 Thursday’s print is first with 82.79 the floor of the night’s value over it, then 83.10 the print itself and 83.32 its ceiling, with 83.56 Thursday’s and 83.77 the overnight high above them. Clear all of that and 84.36 where last week’s value began is the real gate, then 85.03 the week’s ceiling. Lose 82.34 and 82.01 Thursday’s value low catches with 81.99 the low right under it, then air to 81.25 the week’s floor, 80 July’s print and 79.85 where August’s value begins.
GC:
4650.10 is where the night left its print and it is the exact tick this week’s value bottoms on, which makes it the line. Gold has defended the 4616 to 4623 pocket two nights running and bought back everything both times, and that is a failed breakdown twice over. Above, 4662.70 is the double where August’s value tops out and Thursday closed, then 4666.20 and 4667.90 the high of the night, with 4671.20 Thursday’s ceiling over them. Clear those and 4690.40 last week’s high and 4695 the week’s print are the work, then 4713 and 4755. Lose 4650.10 and 4640.30 catches, then 4638.40 where Thursday’s value bottoms and 4623, with 4616.20 the low of the week under it and 4614.30 where last week’s value topped out below that.
The White Van Stuff
Both index books rebuilt higher overnight and both parked their same-day lids over price, which is the opposite of where they sat midweek. Crude’s book tightened right on top of where price is trading and gold’s structural marks are stranded so far under the market they stopped meaning anything a month ago. Equity vol is the quietest of the four by a mile.
ES: ES took out 7750 at the open and the ladder above it stacks tight, 7760 and 7780 with the same-day lid at 7775 buried in the middle of them. The floor this book gives it today is 7700, a long way under anywhere anybody is trading. Price is 7755.75, over the 7750.
NQ: NQ has three separate marks landing on 29620 today, the pivot, the standing floor and the same-day floor, all on one price and all sitting under the market. Above it the nearest thing is 29700, then the same-day lid at 29800 and the top of the day’s band at 29950.83. Price is 29693.25, under the 29700.
CL: Crude’s band runs 81.32 to 85.76 and price is down in the bottom quarter of it after the overnight rolled over. The 84.00 same-day lid never came into play and the pivot underneath sits at 81.25. Price is 82.65, under the 83.00.
GC: Gold’s structural cap is 4510 and price left it behind weeks ago, so this book has nothing real overhead until 4800. Today’s pivot is 4650, and price is holding over it.
Great, kid. Don’t get cocky.
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