Happy Options Expiration Friday Frens. There was a time when I had talked about shorting two companies to 0. One of them was Chipotle (nailed it) my other one that I shouted into the void was Netflix. They guided slow last night, the AI bill came due for the chip names again, and the tech flush got its second day while I slept. This one might have had teeth if it wasn’t opex. My lean is patience. I could see continuation, but I could see the white van people being offsides at the open and trying to pull us back into balance. I’m looking to get in and out early Today and not sit at the desk for whatever shenanigans may come with “the largest options expiration of all time” - which we hear every month it seems.
The Tape
ES finally lost the stack Thursday, an outside day that closed weak, value 7580 to 7613 on a 7601.75 POC with the close at 7577, under the 7590 shelf it defended all week. The overnight made it real, selling from 7575 straight down through last week’s floor at 7532.25 and printing 7491.25 in the 3am hour before the bounce. It sits 7511 now, under the floor it closed on yesterday, with 7532.25 the line it has to take back. Fail there and the cage is 7491.25 the overnight low, then 7468.5 where July and last week both bottomed, with 7440 June’s POC the deep magnet.
NQ did it again Thursday, a second straight trend-down day that opened 29466, never bounced, and closed 29217 on a 29300 POC after tagging 29078.5. The overnight was the ugly part, straight through the 28926 and 28909.8 shelf the week had been standing on, all the way to 28550, a whisker above June’s 28512 low, before buyers finally showed up. It sits 28687 now, below the broken shelf, with the entire July map overhead. Reclaim 28910 and the repair ladder reads 29078.5 yesterday’s low, 29217 the close, then 29300 the POC; stay under it and 28550 and 28512, June’s low, are the only floors left.
CL put in an inside day Thursday, two-sided between 78.57 and 80.87 and closing 79.06 on a 79.00 POC, the first session in four that did not press the top. The overnight told the real story, the 1am flush dragged it to 77.93, through the week’s 78.13 value floor, and the bid swallowed the whole thing, buying it back to 80.32 by breakfast. It sits 80.10, back on top of the week’s 79.60 volume line with the breakout intact. Above 80.94, the ceiling of the week’s profile, and 81.27 the week high there is still nothing built overhead. 80.10 on the line.
GC went looking for the basement Thursday, a trend-down session from a 4033.8 open to a 3973.4 low that closed 3984.8, sitting right on the summer’s floor. The overnight actually cleared the round number this time, running to 4012.2 in the evening, then gave every bit of it back, printing a 3974.1 low before steadying. It sits 3995.5 now, back at yesterday’s 3998 POC, under the number again. The whole summer’s structure is overhead, 4027 July’s value floor, 4035 the week’s POC, and underneath there is only 3973.4 and then 3955.4, June’s low, before the map goes blank.
The Calendar
Friday, July 17 (all times CT):
- 7:30 Housing starts and building permits for June, plus import and export prices
- 8:15 Industrial production and capacity utilization
- 9:00 Michigan consumer sentiment, the preliminary July read
- 12:00 Baker Hughes rig count
The Plan
ES:
ES broke the floor overnight and now has to take it back. 7532.25, last week’s value floor, is the trigger, with price under it at 7511 after the 7491.25 flush low. Reclaim it and the repair climbs 7552.25 June’s value ceiling, then 7577 the week’s value base on yesterday’s close, then 7590 where the week and July stack their POCs, with 7602 yesterday’s POC and 7613 its value ceiling the extension. Stay under 7532.25 and 7491.25 the overnight low is the first gate, then 7468.5, the low July and last week share. Under those it is 7440 June’s POC, then 7365 June’s value floor, with 7292, June’s low, under everything.
NQ:
NQ is the whole story again and the longer map finally matters. The shelf at 28926 and 28909.8 broke in the night and the flush ran to 28550, a whisker over June’s 28512 low, before buyers showed up; it sits 28687 under the broken shelf. Reclaim 28910 and the ladder reads 29078.5 yesterday’s low, then 29252 where yesterday’s value and June’s value bottom together, then 29300 yesterday’s POC and 29341 July’s value base. Above those the magnets get bigger, 29435 the week’s value floor, 29600 July’s POC, and 29700, the price June and this week both crowned as POC. Fail under the shelf and it is 28550, then 28512, and below June’s low the profile has nothing to say.
CL:
Crude passed its stress test overnight and the trigger is still 79.60, the week’s POC, with price back above it at 80.10 after the 1am flush tagged 77.93 and got bought back whole. Above 80.32 the overnight high the press resumes at 80.87 yesterday’s high, then 80.94 the top of weekly value and 81.27 the week high, and through that the profile still offers nothing overhead. Below 79.24, June’s value ceiling sitting on yesterday’s 79.00 POC, the retest map is 78.13 the week’s value base and 77.93 again. Lose those on a second test and the vacuum opens, 77.40 July’s value ceiling, then air to 74.00 July’s POC and 72.00 where last week did its business, with 70.00 June’s POC the deep anchor.
GC:
Gold showed both hands overnight, it cleared the round number to 4012.2 and could not hold it, and it defended the floor again at 3974.1. The trigger is still 3998, yesterday’s POC under the round number, with price at 3995.5 leaning on it. Reclaim the number with acceptance and the staircase reads 4012, then 4027 July’s value floor, 4035 the week’s POC, and 4044 June’s value floor, with 4067 the week’s value ceiling, 4080 July’s POC, and 4094 last week’s floor the proof the whole break repaired. Fail again and the floor gets a third test, 3974.1 the overnight low on 3973.4, the low this week and yesterday share. Accept below those and 3955.4, June’s low, is the last line, with nothing under it.
The White Van Stuff
The overnight did something the whole week of selling had not done: it knocked both equity books out the bottom of their same-day floors, so the puts that were supposed to catch ES and NQ now sit overhead as lids. Gold is in the same spot, trading under its 4000 floor with every level on its book stacked above, while crude is the only chart on the screen still trading on top of its own structure. Protection finally got bid, the S&P band is still under a percent, and the tech book is priced for double that.
ES: ES fell out of its book overnight, through the 7575 pivot and the 7550 floor that held all week, and both of those now sit overhead. The night already ground through the 7525 shelf too, and the expected day runs 7511 to 7645. It sits 7511, on the expected low itself.
NQ: The tech book is the loud one and price is under all of it, including the 29000 same-day floor that gave way on the flush. The heaviest same-day interest below runs 28900 then 28800, both already traded through in the night, with the deep floor at 28500 and the expected day 28719 to 29732. It sits 28687, under the expected low, working the 28700 shelf.
CL: Crude’s book flipped days ago and stayed that way, price trading above its whole same-day structure again with its heaviest interest sitting right overhead at 80.68. The band runs 76.31 to 81.59 and price is working the top half of it, with the structural cap far above at 85.73. It sits 80.10, under the 80.68 shelf, on top of everything else.
GC: Gold is parked in the densest same-day interest on its whole book, the 3975 to 3990 cluster it has been grinding through all night, with the 4000 floor now overhead and every bigger level above that. The staircase up runs the 4025 same-day pivot, the 4048 expected high, and the 4095 magnet into the 4100 cap. It sits 3995.5, pressing the number from below.
Life is a game of inches. Be safe out there. Enjoy the weekend.
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