Thursday was the worst single day in a month, the worry about how much these companies are spending on AI finally caught up to the whole tech book and dragged everything red at once. My read is simple: a Friday pop off a beating means nothing until the cash session holds it through the eow bell. You really need to see buyers hold and close about that bottom edge of the indices' balance range. If we don’t, it gets slippery below 28400. Crude giving the premium back is the real story on the screen. That being said next week is once again the main event of earnings season when Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon all report and the tech tape gets the test that actually matters..again. Could be the fuel we need to push us out of whatever we are calling this summer tape. Can’t wait to see the token maxxing capex for all of them.
The Tape
ES gave back Thursday’s highs and closed soft, a wide rotation between 7411.75 and 7486.50 that settled 7444 on a 7430 POC down in the lower third. The overnight walked it back, opening 7450.50, running to 7469 over yesterday’s ceiling, then holding a 7433.75 dip, and it sits 7466 now with overnight value stacked 7447.75 to 7466.25. That puts price back above yesterday’s whole range and pinned right under the week’s 7477 floor. Reclaim 7477 and 7507 opens where July bottoms its value, then 7546 the week and month POC where the volume sits. Lose the 7448 overnight base and 7433.75 the overnight bottom guards it, then 7430 the POC and 7411.75, the low yesterday and the week share.
