Happy peace talks going well SpaceXaipo day. What a weird time, man. A peace deal with Iran could be signed as soon as Sunday, the planned strikes got called off, and crude erased weeks of supply panic in two sessions while the indexes ripped and gold, the chart nobody had circled for a bounce, printed the V of the year. The biggest IPO in history starts trading today too, because this Friday apparently needed more plot. I highly doubt we get anything close to last Fridays shinanigans but rollover next week, so things might get a little weird.
he Tape
ES finally got its reversal Thursday, opening 7308, flushing to 7263 in the first hour, then trending the rest of the session to close 7394.5 near the highs, a P-shape with the 7298 POC parked at the bottom and value running 7263 to 7366. The overnight gapped it higher and ran 7451.25 before stalling, building value 7391 to 7431 around a 7410 POC. It sits 7431 now, on top of the 7416 week POC and 7420 May POC stack that rejected it twice on the way down, holding above the 7414 overnight VWAP. Through 7451 the path runs 7476 week value ceiling, 7491 the week high, then the 7525 shelf where last week’s floor and May’s ceiling stack. Lose 7410 and the gap opens, 7391 value floor, 7375 the overnight low, then 7366 Thursday’s value ceiling.
NQ ran the reversal with the most violence, holding 28577.5 early and trending the entire session to a 29457.75 close, leaving a hollow P-shape with the 28600 POC stranded at the dead lows. The overnight extended it, dipping once to 29260 and running 29675, with value parked 29460 to 29625 around 29551. It sits 29568, above the week’s 29417 value ceiling and above Thursday’s entire range. Through 29675 there’s 29848 the week high, then the 29950 wall where last week’s value floor and May’s ceiling sit on the same shelf. Lose 29460 and 29417 is the first test, then 29260 and 29184 Thursday’s value ceiling, with nothing thick again until 28974.
CL spent Thursday getting dismantled, tagging 91.49 early then trending down all session to close 86.53, with value 85.85 to 90.05 and the 87.50 POC left overhead. The overnight finished the job, snapping the 86.35 May low and flushing to 83.20, prices last seen in March, before the bounce back to 85. Overnight value built 83.35 to 85.80 around a 83.92 POC and price sits 85.05, pinned to the top of it and dead on the overnight VWAP. Reclaim 85.85 Thursday’s value floor and the repair runs 86.40 the overnight high, then 87.50 and 87.91 the week’s value floor. Fail there and it rotates back to 83.92, then 83.20, and below that the chart is blank.
GC V-bottomed hard Thursday, flushing to 4072.8 in the opening hour then ripping the whole session to close 4229.9 on the highs, the 4172 POC mid-range with value 4096 to 4197. The overnight held every bit of it, basing 4191.1 to 4249.6 with value 4195.5 to 4238 around a 4199 POC. It sits 4226, above Thursday’s whole value area with three days of wreckage still stacked far overhead. Through 4249.6 the recovery runs 4297 the week’s value ceiling, then 4338 last week’s low and 4409 the May low, the lines that actually un-break this chart. Lose 4191 and the gate is 4172 where Thursday’s POC and the week’s POC share a price, then 4096 and the 4073 low underneath.
The Calendar
- 9:00 AM CT, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary (June), with the inflation expectations reads
- 12:00 PM CT, Baker Hughes rig count
- SpaceX begins trading today, the largest IPO ever priced
The Plan
ES:
ES gapped above Thursday’s close and is sitting 7431 on the 7416 week POC and 7420 May POC stack, the same shelf that turned it away twice on the way down. Above 7451 the overnight high, the targets are 7476 week VAH, 7491 the week high, then the 7525 to 7529 shelf where last week’s floor meets May’s ceiling, with 7624 last week’s POC the far line. If 7416 holds, dips into 7410 overnight POC and 7391 value floor are for buying against the gap. Lose 7391 and the gap fill is on, 7375 the overnight low, then 7366 Thursday’s value ceiling, with 7338 May’s floor, 7321 week VAL, and the 7298 POC underneath.
NQ:
NQ is the leader and it’s not close, holding 29568, above the week’s 29417 value ceiling, after the overnight extended Thursday’s rip to 29675. Above 29675 the path is 29848, the week high, then the only line that matters up here, the 29950 wall where last week’s floor sits on May’s ceiling, and acceptance through it opens the air toward 30590 last week’s POC. Hold 29460 overnight value and dips stay for buying. Lose it and 29417 is the first test, then 29260 the overnight low and 29184 from Thursday, with nothing but thin bars below that until 28974 and the 28600 POC at the bottom.
CL:
Crude is broken and bouncing, parked 85.05 on the top of overnight value after snapping the May low. First test overhead is 85.85, Thursday’s value floor sitting right on the overnight value ceiling, and reclaiming it puts 86.40 the overnight high in play as the gate. Through that, the repair runs 87.50 Thursday’s POC, 87.91 week VAL, then 90.05 with the 90.86 to 91.30 zone far above. Fail at 85.85 and the bounce is a rental, 83.92 catches first, then 83.20, and below that there’s no profile until prices nobody has on their charts anymore. A signature this weekend kills what’s left of the supply premium, no signature reverses this whole flush on a headline, so size like the gap risk is real.
GC:
Gold’s V is real until 4191 says otherwise. Holding above the 4199 overnight POC keeps the bounce in control, and through 4249.6 the recovery targets 4297 week VAH, then 4338 last week’s low, with the 4409 May low the line that turns a bounce into a trend change. Lose 4191 and the gate is 4172, Thursday’s POC sitting on the week’s POC. Below that the V unwinds fast, 4096 Thursday’s value floor, then the 4073 low with nothing under it. Thursday proved a real buyer showed up at the lows, but one session doesn’t repair a month of damage, so I’d rather buy 4250 breaking than guess at 4191 holding.
The White Van Stuff
One headline repriced all four books overnight. The index surfaces now sit mostly below price with their caps far overhead, crude’s book got run through top to bottom and price is camped on its last floor, and gold blew through every same-day line it had, leaving nothing overhead until the mid 4300s. When positioning moves this fast in one direction, the levels that flipped are more honest than the ones that held.
ES got its overnight top called to the tick, price stalled at 7451.25 against the 7450 same-day cap. Most of the same-day surface sits under price now, with the 7390 magnet and 7380 pivot the zone any dip gets judged at. The 7481 expected high is the only line between here and the 7500s.
NQ‘s book is a 30000 story, the cap, the same-day cap, and the expected high all parked on or just past the round number. Under price, the 29200 same-day pivot and the 28900 magnet mark where the breakout read dies. Between here and the lid it’s just the 29600 to 29850 interest ladder, thin enough that the pull toward the number is real.
CL broke through its entire same-day surface on the way down and is resting on the 85 put floor, the last line the book has drawn. The 86 same-day floor flipped overhead into first resistance, with the 87.75 pivot and the 89 same-day cap behind it. Below 85 there’s the 84.58 expected low and then the book runs out at 82.
GC‘s surface never caught up to the V, the entire same-day book sits below price. The 4180 expected high, the 4125 same-day cap, even the 4100 same-day floor, all of it is support now if anything tests down there. The first real lid is the 4345 magnet, then the 4400 cap, which is a lot of open road overhead.
Take the clean trade, get flat, and let the Sunday gap be somebody else’s problem. The screen will be there Monday. I plan to keep it light and tight and go outside.
I wonder if this will be the perfect meme for the average retail investor YOLOing their 401k into SpaceX. Time will tell.
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