Quick one here Today. NQ is the one getting carried out while gold quietly catches every dollar that runs out of tech. I have been short the rallies since this thing lost the highs and the tape finally quit making me look early. Crude is its own separate funeral, third straight week lower now that the war bid has bled out. Something abult this tape has made me not ewant to stay long. So my advice is to stalk it and come back next week. I’m patiently waiting. Get some points and go enjoy your weekend.
The Tape
ES put in a down day Thursday, opening 7485 and closing weak at 7428, below its own 7421 POC. The overnight gapped under that and never got back, parking value between 7365 and 7405 with price now 7381. It sits below Thursday’s whole value area and below 7444, the shelf the week’s sellers keep defending. Bull case is a reclaim of 7405 and the day rotates back toward 7421 and that 7444 wall. Bear case is 7385 fails, 7364 the overnight low gives, and 7307 the June low is the next shelf.
NQ is the broken one, a heavy down day Thursday from a 30153 open to a 29749 close, and the overnight kept selling, cracking clean through Thursday’s 29296 low. Value rebuilt lower between 29216 and 29558, and price is back to 29307 hugging the developing POC. It sits below Thursday’s value, below the week VAL, and a long way under the 29700 stack where Thursday, the week, and the month all parked their POC. Bull case is a reclaim of 29330 and a grind back toward that 29700 wall. Bear case is 29296 gives again and the 29211 overnight low opens the air pocket down to 28506.
CL actually had an up day Thursday, closing 72.03 right at its 72.50 high, then handed all of it back overnight. It sold from 70.40 down to 68.96 and sits 69.79, under the 70.00 week POC and VWAP it had been holding. Value is parked low between 69.13 and 70.38, and crude is back in the floor of its month-long slide. Bull case is reclaiming 70.00 and rotating up toward 71.57 Thursday POC. Bear case is the 69.13 shelf fails and 68.96 last night’s low opens discovery lower.
GC went the other way, an up day Thursday off the 3993 low into a 4041 close, then a clean overnight bid up to 4081. It sits 4070, above Thursday’s 4055 POC and above today’s 4063 VAH, the only one of the four trading above value. Bull case is 4063 holds and the run extends through 4081 toward 4135 week VAH. Bear case is 4055 gives back and 4030, the week POC, is the gate before 3975 the June low.
The Calendar
Friday, June 26 (all times CT):
- 7:30 Goods trade balance and wholesale and retail inventories, advance reads
- 9:00 Michigan consumer sentiment, final, with the inflation expectations baked in
- Late morning Fed’s Williams and Kashkari both speak
- 12:00 Baker Hughes rig count
The Plan
ES:
ES is pinned under 7385, the developing POC that capped the whole overnight, with session VWAP at 7396 just above it. Reclaim 7396 and 7405 today’s VAH and the first real test is 7421 Thursday’s POC, then 7444 week POC where the sellers have lived all week. Push through 7444 and 7479 week VAH opens, with the bigger overhead target up at 7558, last week’s value floor. Lose 7385 with sellers behind it and 7365 developing VAL goes first, then 7364 the overnight low is the line that matters. Below 7364 there is air, nothing structural until 7307, the June low where the month finally built volume.
NQ:
NQ is the one getting carried out, sitting 29307 right on the 29330 developing POC after the overnight cracked through Thursday’s low. Reclaim 29330 and 29375 week VAL is first, then 29470 session VWAP, then the wall at 29700 where Thursday, the week, and the month all stacked their POC. That 29700 is the line that has to break to call this anything but a bounce, and above it 29803 Thursday VAH and the prev-week floor up at 30353 come back into view. Lose 29330 and 29296 Thursday low goes, then 29264 week low, then 29216 where the developing VAL and last night’s low stack is the trapdoor. Below 29211 it is open air down to 28506, the June low and the only place the month built real volume.
CL:
Crude gave back all of Thursday and then some, sitting 69.79 under 70.00, the week POC and session VWAP it lost overnight. Reclaim 70.00 and 70.38 today’s VAH is first, then 70.82 Thursday VAL, then 71.57 Thursday POC where the up day built. Through there 72.50 Thursday’s high and 73.22 week VAH come back, with the real overhead supply not until 75.85, last week’s POC. Lose the 69.13 to 69.46 shelf where developing VAL and week VAL stack, and 68.96 the overnight low guards the next leg. Below 68.96 there is no volume shelf left, just price discovery toward 67 and the next round number down.
GC:
Gold is catching every dollar that runs out of tech, sitting 4070 back above 4055 Thursday POC and 4063 today’s VAH after the overnight bid. Hold 4063 and 4081 the overnight high is first, then open air up to 4135 week VAH, with the real overhead supply not until 4231 and 4250, last week’s value. Lose 4063 and 4055 Thursday POC goes, then the 4030 to 4045 shelf where the week POC, month VAL, and session VWAP all sit is where it decides. Below 4030 the bid is done and 4016 developing VAL opens, then 3993 Thursday low. Under 3993 it is back to 3975, the June low where the whole month bottomed.
The White Van Stuff
The protection is stacked and the floors already broke. The equity put floor that should have held the line sits overhead now on both ES and NQ, the options crowd leaning short into the slide instead of fading it. Crude punched below its expected range floor and gold is pressing its cap, so three of the four are trading outside the band the positioning drew.
ES: ES already lost the floor. The 7400 put floor that should have been the line is sitting overhead now, and the same-day cap is way up at 7515. Heavy interest stacks at 7375 and 7350 below, which is also the expected low for the day.
NQ: Same story one floor lower. The 29500 put floor flipped overhead overnight, and the next real shelf the options crowd is defending is 29000. The day is priced to range 29218 to 30231, and price is already pressed against the bottom near 29218 the expected low.
CL: Crude blew through its own floor. The 71 put floor and 71.75 cap are both overhead now, and price already slipped under 69.91 the expected low. The next real options floor is not until 65.
GC: Gold is the mirror image, pressing up into its cap instead of falling out of its floor. The same-day ceiling is 4090 right overhead, and a push through it puts 4111 the expected high in play. The floor the options draw is 4000, with the expected low just under it at 3983.
Protect yourself at all times. Survive and advance.
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