Payrolls came in hot, 172k against an 80k estimate with unemployment holding 4.3%, and the reaction told the story. The indices rolled over at the close yesterday and continued into the overnight. ES still coiled under the week’s value and NQ still the weak one pinned near its lows, while gold took the hit and got dumped from 4496 back to the 4454 floor. This could be a fun and interesting session. Until I see NQ accepting under 30k plan remains to look for longs for a rotation higher. I went into this week with the bearish tingle, so it time for sellers to nut up and show me some heart.
The Tape
ES repaired most of the chip damage Thursday, closing 7599 on the POC, then the overnight gave it back to 7558 and parked value 7554 to 7569 under the 7561 POC. It barely moved on the print, still below Thursday’s 7566 VAL and the whole week’s value. Reclaim 7566 and the upside opens, lose 7554 and 7545 and the 7541 week low is in play.
NQ recovered to 30485 Thursday, then the overnight bounce rolled over and slid to 30107, slipping under the 30114 overnight value floor. Still the weak one, pinned near the lows under the entire week’s value with the hot print no help. Reclaim 30114 and 30200 to repair, lose the 30042 low and it’s air to 30000.
CL recovered to close 93.17 Thursday, then the overnight whipped, running 93.64 before getting sold to 91.49, now 92.59 under the 93 week POC. It’s rotating the lower half of overnight value, mid-range for the week. Reclaim 93 and it firms toward 93.90, lose 92.38 and 91.49 comes back.
GC put in its first real up day Thursday closing 4508, then the overnight bid to 4496 and got dumped to 4458 when the number hit, failing 4500 again and back on the 4454 floor. The safety bid keeps showing up and getting sold. Hold 4454 and it can base, lose it and there’s air to 4409.
The Calendar
- 7:30 AM CT, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings (May)
- 12:00 PM CT, Baker Hughes Rig Count
- 2:00 PM CT, Consumer Credit (April)
The Plan
ES:
ES is coiling 7558 right under the 7561 overnight POC and 7563 VWAP, back below the entire week’s value and barely moved on the print. Above 7561 the reclaim runs 7566 yest VAL, 7570 overnight VAH, then 7583 week VAL and 7591 overnight high into 7595 prev week POC, with 7600 yest POC and 7611 yest high the cap before the 7632 week high. Hold 7554 overnight VAL to keep the coil two-sided, lose 7545 overnight low into 7541 week low and the next leg runs 7536 prev week VAL. Below there air opens to 7515 prev week low then 7420 May POC. The number ran hot, the 8:30 open is the next test.
NQ:
NQ rolled the overnight bounce back over and sits 30107, slipping under the 30114 overnight value floor and back toward the 30042 low, still the weak one. Above 30114 the repair runs 30166 yest VAL, then 30200 overnight POC and 30228 overnight VAH into 30320 yest POC, with 30466 week VAL and 30590 week POC the lines that flip it back bullish. Lose the 30042 overnight low and it’s air with nothing structural until 30000 prev week POC. Past that the slide runs 29954 May VAH then 29828 prev week VAL where the deeper shelf sits. No reason to step in front until it reclaims 30200 and proves the bounce is real.
CL:
Crude ran the overnight to 93.64 then got sold all the way to 91.49, a two-sided whip that left it 92.59 under the 92.95 overnight POC and the 93 week POC. Above 92.95 the reclaim runs the 93 week POC and 93.17 overnight VAH, then 93.24 yest VAH and 93.90 prev week POC into 94.23 week VAH. Hold 92.38 overnight VAL and the chop stays two-sided, lose it and 91.93 yest low and 91.49 overnight low go, then 91.48 week VAL cracks and it’s air to 88.68 prev week VAL. Below there 86.35 the prev week and May low stacked is where crude based before the run. Baker Hughes at noon is a side note, the open is the swing.
GC:
Gold bid to 4496 overnight then got dumped right back to 4458 on the number, failing the 4500 reclaim again and falling onto the 4454 floor where the week and overnight lows stack. Hold 4454 and a bounce can rebuild toward 4472 overnight VAL, 4488 yest VAL and the 4490 overnight POC, then 4500 week POC and 4521 week VAH into the 4532 shelf it keeps failing. Lose 4454 and there’s nothing under it but air down to 4409 prev week and May low where the deeper volume parked. The safety bid has shown up twice now and gotten sold both times.
The White Van Stuff
The number’s out and it ran hot, so the rate-cut hope that had been propping the metals died and the equity books barely repriced. ES and NQ sit pinned with caps stacked overhead, the expected ranges narrow and the surfaces still leaning slightly positive. Gold flushed back through its whole same-day surface to the floor while crude stayed wide and two-sided.
ES sits under the 7585 magnet with the book stacked into the 7650 cap overhead, the same lid all week. The 7546 expected low held the overnight fade and the number, with the 7575 same-day put floor just above price.
NQ is the heavy one, the whole surface stacked overhead from the 30340 magnet into the 30700 cap. It sits under the 30121 expected low, the line every overnight dip has tested, with the round number just below.
CL band is still wide at 89.65 to 96.43 and price is back near the 92.25 pivot after the two-sided whip. The 93.50 same-day cap is the lid that capped the bounce with the 95 interest and 105 cap a long way up. Jumpy both ways, the way crude’s traded all week.
GC failed the reclaim and flushed back under its same-day surface on the number, the 4471 pivot and 4496 cap now the lid overhead again. The 4419 expected low is the real shelf under price with the 4421 put floor right at it. The book leaned up twice this week and got sold both times.
Trade the reaction at the open, not your bias. Bears…its’s time to show me something.
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