Happy sell in May and go away day! Apple beat and ES just printed its first close above 7200 in history. Gold’s getting flushed at the open and crude is still holding the $100s with the Hormuz situation refusing to give. As everyone knows ATH price discovery is my least favorite time to trade. So I will continue to keep it light. I’m continuing to be in the camp of “nothing stops this train.” Gold and Crude may be the better trades currently. Side note: If you didnt know, this Sunday, I will be launching the premiere of SUNDAYTICKS at 8pm CT. Join me, Xyzeee, Stowe, and LeoTheTiger live on Youtube, Kick, and X. We will be giving away a ton of LucidTrading Accounts. Weekly this will be a laid-back, live podcast format mixed with market thoughts, commentary, and some fun. Join us by subscribing to my channel here: SUNDAYTICKS
Yesterday’s Sessions
ES opened 7200 sharp, ground up to 7251.75, and closed 7238. POC printed 7244.50 with VAH 7251.50 / VAL 7187.50. The kind of contained drift higher that means buyers never got tested. First close above 7200 ever and the volume area was tight as hell. That’s not noise.
NQ opened 27489.75, ran to 27622, dipped through the morning to 27163.25, then rebuilt to close 27578.75. POC came in at 27400 with VAH 27456.75 / VAL 27180. The day made a real low and then refused to revisit it. Mag7 holding it up.
CL ranged 103.33 to 106.62, settled 105.22 with POC at 104.94 and VAH 105.45 / VAL 104.05. The week’s been a one-way conversation between $95 and $108 and yesterday was the inside-day version of it. Crude can’t extend up, won’t break down.
GC drifted 4618 to 4659, closed 4630 with POC = close = 4630 and value compressed inside 4622.50 to 4638.30. That’s a market waiting on something. It got an answer overnight.
The Overnight
ES Globex 7258 open, 7260.25 high, 7246.50 low, sitting 7256.25 right now. Holding above yesterday’s VAH with session VWAP at 7253.63 right under price. Above value, above the prior call ceiling, above all of it. The tape is exactly where the bulls would draw it.
NQ Globex opened 27628.25, traded to 27640.75, faded to 27536.25, sitting 27560 now. Inside yesterday’s VA but below the overnight high. Apple beat after-hours got priced in and then sold. NQ is the question mark today.
CL Globex print 105 to 106.65 to 103.95 to 104.31 now. Crude punched above yesterday’s high overnight then got sold $2.70 off the top. That’s a tell.
GC Globex opened 4620.70 (already $10 below close), made a 4628.20 high, then collapsed to 4570 and is sitting 4588.90. Forty dollars of damage overnight. The safety bid is gone.
The Map
Price is sitting right at the top of value with VWAP, POC, VAH, and the overnight high all stacked inside a 12-handle band. That’s a coiled tape. Lose 7244.50 (yesterday POC) and the conversation moves back inside yesterday’s range. The 7160 Week POC is the magnet on a real failure.
NQ is sitting below the Globex high with Mag7 momentum doing the work. The 27500 area was last week’s ceiling and it’s now the floor that has to hold. Lose 27400 (yesterday POC, also Week POC) and 27190 opens up fast.
Crude is below yesterday’s POC with the overnight selling already $2.70 off the high. The 104 area is the line. Below that, 103.33 (yesterday low) is the next ladder rung and last week’s 99.74 VAL is in the conversation. Crude has refused to extend through $108 all week.
Gold gapped down through yesterday’s entire value area overnight and built a fresh POC $50 below yesterday’s. The 4570 overnight low is the line in the sand right now. Lose it and last week’s 4548 VAL is the next stop, then prior month low 4522.
What I’m Watching
ES: Whether the 7250 same-day cap acts as floor instead of ceiling now that we’ve punched through it. Hold above and the 7300 call ceiling and 7308 expected top come into play. Lose 7251 (yesterday VAH and Globex pivot) and we’re back inside yesterday’s value with 7187.50 (yesterday VAL) as the next floor. The whole bull case rides on holding the breakout.
NQ: Whether NQ closes the gap to the 27700 same-day cap or rolls over from here. Above 27622 yesterday high and 27640 Globex high the path to 27700 opens. Below 27500 (yesterday VAH zone) and 27400 (yesterday POC = Week POC) the path to 27190 to 27240 magnet opens up fast. AAPL got bid up after-hours and sold in Globex. That’s a setup that could roll over.
CL: Whether yesterday’s high $106.62 is the cycle top. Crude has refused to extend above $108 even with the headlines. If $104 fails on a real flush, $103.33 yesterday low is the staircase and $99.74 (last week’s VAL) is in play. Watching whether the $100s hold or whether the air pocket below opens up.
GC: Whether 4570 holds as the overnight low or whether the safety bid is genuinely gone. We’re $40 below yesterday’s close already. Above 4630 (yesterday POC = close) we have a chance to repair the damage. Below 4570 the $4548 week VAL and $4522 prior month low are the next stops.
The White Van Stuff
ES: Same-day cap sits at 7250 and we’re trading $6 ABOVE it right now. That’s a market in the middle of a punch through resistance. Today’s pivot is 7170 (below value), today’s put floor 7100. Expected daily top is 7308.64, expected low 7178.86. The structural call ceiling is 7300 with heavy interest stacked at 7320, 7325, 7350, and a far cluster at 7376. Standard put floor sits at 7000. The whole upside cluster from 7250 to 7376 is the next $125 of conversation.
NQ: Same-day cap is 27700 and we’re $140 below it. Today’s pivot 27430 sits right under the action, today’s put floor at 27200. Expected daily top is 27925.61 (the runway above), expected low 27266.39. The structural call ceiling stepped up to 28000 with heavy interest above at 28104 and 28250. Standard floor 25000. Above 27700 the path opens to the 27900s and the upside cluster at 28100 to 28250.
CL: Same-day cap and structural call ceiling are both 110, confluence at the obvious round number that’s been the wall all week. Today’s pivot is 108, today’s put floor 107. Expected high 110.72, expected low 99.42. The all-expiry magnet stepped up to 99.75 (was 94.5 a week ago, market is leaning higher). Heavy interest above at 109, 111, 112, 115. Standard floor 85. The 100 to 110 band is the entire short-term range conversation.
GC: Same-day cap is 4664.94 (above price), today’s pivot 4625.07 right where yesterday’s value built. Today’s put floor sits at 4585.20, basically AT current price. That’s the line that has to hold or things get messier. Expected high 4680.94, expected low 4548.46. Structural call ceiling way up at 4784, structural floor 4435. The magnet level 4630 is also yesterday’s POC. Below today’s put floor the path through 4575, 4560, and 4548 opens fast.
The Calendar
- 8:45 AM CT, S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI Final (April)
- 9:00 AM CT, ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)
- 9:00 AM CT, ISM Manufacturing Employment / New Orders / Prices (April)
- 12:00 PM CT, Baker Hughes Rig Count
ISM at 9 is the only thing on the tape that picks the side today.
What Could Go Wrong
1. ES loses 7244.50 (yesterday POC) and unwinds back through yesterday’s value. 7187.50 (yesterday VAL) becomes the next floor and a real failure puts 7160 (Week POC) in the conversation.
2. NQ loses 27400 (yesterday POC = Week POC) and the path to 27190 opens up. Mag7 strength can hold this; a Mag7 wobble cracks it.
3. CL fails 104 with conviction and 103.33 yesterday low becomes the staircase down. Below that 99 to 100 is the next real floor and the entire week’s range gets revisited from the bottom.
The Plan
ES: Holding above 7250 (today’s same-day cap) keeps the breakout in play with 7300 (structural call ceiling) as the immediate test, then expected high 7308 and the heavy interest cluster at 7320 to 7350. Below 7244.50 (yesterday POC) we’re back inside yesterday’s value, and 7187.50 (yesterday VAL) is the next staircase rung. ISM at 9 will pick the side.
NQ: Above 27622 (yesterday high) and 27640 (Globex high) the same-day cap at 27700 is the gate, then expected top 27926 and the 28000 ceiling. Below 27500 we’re back inside yesterday’s value with 27430 (today’s pivot) as the magnet and 27400 (yesterday POC = Week POC) below that, then 27200 today’s put floor. AAPL got bid up and sold overnight. Don’t be the last one in.
CL: Above 105.50 (today POC) the conversation stays in the upper $100s with 106.62 yesterday high as the cap. Below 104 (and we’re already there) yesterday low 103.33 is in play, then last week’s 99.74 VAL. Crude won’t extend above $108 even with the headlines. That’s a market telling you something.
GC: Above 4630 (yesterday POC = close) the damage gets repaired toward 4659 yesterday high. Below 4570 (overnight low) the path opens to last week’s 4548 VAL and prior month 4522 low. Forty dollars of overnight damage with the safety bid gone is not a buy-the-dip setup until 4570 holds.
Go make some money. Touch Grass. We’ll see you Sunday Night for the show.
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Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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