Thursday closed both indices right at the highs, 7526 on ES and 29686 on NQ. Then Globex unwound the whole move. ES stretched back to 7528 against the prior day high cluster, NQ probed 29734 fresh, and both got carried out the other direction down to 7429 and 29142 with price into the bell sitting 7436 and 29172. Crude finally cleared the 100 line for real on a 105 print. Gold lost every layer of structure overnight down to 4535. Are the sellers finally going to stand and bang with bulls because of what bonds are doing?
The Tape
ES put in a trend day up Thursday closing 7526 at the highs with POC 7525.75 and value 7507.75 to 7532.75. Globex stretched back to 7528 and rolled hard, dumping through yesterday’s whole value area to 7429.75. Currently 7436 right on 7437 overnight POC and 7435 week POC stacked. Bull-case is 7435 holds and the reclaim works back through 7472 week VAH toward 7507 yesterday VAL and the 7525 yesterday POC / 7526 close cluster. Bear-case is 7435 fails through 7429 overnight low into the 7427 prev week VAH / 7420 May POC stack, then air to 7282 prev week VAL and 7160 April POC.
NQ was the lead and the lead reversed. Thursday closed 29686 at the highs with POC 29690 and value 29636 to 29770. Globex pushed 29734 fresh, then rolled all the way through yesterday’s range to 29142.5. Currently 29172 right on 29180 overnight VAL with 29179 week VAL stacked one tick under. Bull-case is the value bottom holds and the reclaim works through 29339 overnight POC into 29476 yesterday VAL then 29686 yesterday POC. Bear-case is 29179 fails into 29001 prev week VAH, then air to 28670 prev week POC and 27880 May POC. Fresh print to fresh dump in one Globex.
CL is the one that actually broke through. Thursday closed 102 at the high with POC 101.02 and value 100.44 to 101.42. Globex ripped through 103, 104, and 105.31 fresh in one sweep, parking 103.88 between 103.64 overnight VAL and 104.5 overnight POC. The 100 line that capped four weekly attempts is officially behind us. Bull-case is 103.64 holds and the upside extends through 105.31 overnight high into air above 106.76 prev week high. Bear-case is 103.64 fails, the 102 May POC stack rolls the rally back inside Thursday, and 100 is the question one more time.
GC was the one that didn’t survive the reversal. Thursday closed 4659.50 at the lows with POC 4688 and value 4672 to 4698. Globex opened 4610 below value, pushed 4670, then puked through every layer of structure to 4535.40. Currently 4544 between 4548 overnight VAL and 4558 overnight POC. The yield reprice killed the trade. Bull-case is 4535 holds and the reclaim works through 4558 overnight POC into 4584 prev week VAL and 4658 yesterday close. Bear-case is 4535 fails through 4522 April low into open air toward 4450 where the April long crowd finally goes underwater.
The Calendar
- 7:30 AM CT, NY Empire State Manufacturing (May)
- 7:30 AM CT, Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization / Manufacturing Production (April)
- 8:15 AM CT, Industrial Production update
- 11:00 AM CT, NOPA Crush Report
- 12:00 PM CT, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
The Plan
7435, the line stacked on overnight POC and week POC where Globex parked after the reversal. Above 7435 holds we target 7465 overnight VAH, then 7470 session VWAP into 7472 week VAH. Above 7472 the rebuild opens up the prior session toward 7507 yesterday VAL then 7525 yesterday POC stacked with 7526 close. Above 7526 we extend to 7528 overnight high, 7532 yesterday VAH, 7540 yesterday high in clean air. Below 7435 fails and we lose 7431 overnight VAL, 7429 overnight low, then 7427 prev week VAH stacked tight with the 7420 May POC / prior-week POC pair is the next gate. Below 7420 the air opens to 7363 week low, 7282 prev week VAL, 7160 April POC. Friday tape into the weekend.
The Bracket: Trigger 7435 (overnight POC / week POC stacked, where Globex parked the reversal). Above 7435 holds the cascade runs 7465 overnight VAH, 7470 session VWAP, 7472 week VAH, 7507 yesterday VAL, 7525 yesterday POC, 7540 yesterday high. Below 7435 fails through 7431 overnight VAL, 7429 overnight low, 7427 prev week VAH / 7420 May POC stack, then air to 7363 week low, 7282 prev week VAL, 7160 April POC. Voided by chop in 7430 to 7445 through the first hour with no clean break either side.
29180, overnight VAL with 29179 week VAL at the identical number where Globex parked the dump. Above 29180 holds we target 29339 overnight POC, 29360 overnight VAH, then 29476 yesterday VAL reopens the upside toward 29636 yesterday VAL and 29686 yesterday POC. Above 29686 the run reopens through 29734 overnight high then 29782 yesterday high in air. Below 29180 fails, 29142 overnight low cracks, then 29001 prev week VAH catches the first leg, with 28742 week low and 28670 prev week POC the staircase below. Below 28670 the air opens to 27880 May POC and 27400 April POC where the multi-month volume sits. Sixteen sessions of green ended in one Globex.
The Bracket: Trigger 29180 (overnight VAL / week VAL stack, the line Globex parked the dump on). Above 29180 holds the cascade runs 29339 overnight POC, 29360 overnight VAH, 29476 yesterday VAL, 29636 second yesterday VAL, 29686 yesterday POC, 29734 overnight high. Below 29180 fails through 29142 overnight low, 29001 prev week VAH, 28742 week low, 28670 prev week POC, then air to 27880 May POC and 27400 April POC. Voided by a rejection of the overnight low and reclaim above 29200 holding through 9:30.
104.5 overnight POC, the new line crude built around after clearing 100. Above 104.5 holds we target 105.28 overnight VAH stacked with 105.31 overnight high, then air reopens above 106.76 prev week high in clean structure. Below 104.5 fails and 104.22 May VAH cracks, then 103.64 overnight VAL into 102 May POC / yesterday close stack rolls the rally back into Thursday’s value. Past 102 the staircase opens through 101.42 yesterday VAH, 101.02 yesterday POC, then 100 the line is the question one more time. Below 100 the unwind opens through 99.52 week VAL stacked with 99.52 prev month VAH, then 95 prev week POC catches the deeper fade. The line finally flipped.
The Bracket: Trigger 104.5 (overnight POC, the new line built after clearing 100). Above 104.5 holds the cascade runs 105.28 overnight VAH, 105.31 overnight high, 106.76 prev week high, open air. Below 104.5 fails through 104.22 May VAH, 103.64 overnight VAL, 102 May POC, 101.02 yesterday POC, 100 the flipped line, 99.52 week VAL / prev month VAH stack, 95 prev week POC. Voided by chop in 103.50 to 104.80 through the rig count print with no clean break either side.
4548, overnight VAL where price is parked after the puke from 4670. Above 4548 holds we target 4558 overnight POC, 4578 overnight VAH, then 4584 prev week VAL gates the rebuild toward 4625 the next structural level. Above 4625 the move runs through 4658 yesterday close, 4672 yesterday VAL, 4688 yesterday POC paired with 4688 April VAL right on the line, then 4698 yesterday VAH puts the rebuild back inside Thursday’s prior value. Below 4548 fails, 4535 overnight low / week low cracks, and the cascade opens through 4522 April low into open air. Past 4522 the 4510 prev week low gives, and unfilled structure runs back toward the 4450 prior swing where the long crowd from the April peak finally goes underwater. Yields up means gold down. Your bet’s as good as mine on the precious from here.
The Bracket: Trigger 4548 (overnight VAL, where price parked after the puke from 4670). Above 4548 holds the cascade runs 4558 overnight POC, 4578 overnight VAH, 4584 prev week VAL, 4658 yesterday close, 4672 yesterday VAL, 4688 yesterday POC / April VAL stack. Below 4548 fails through 4535 overnight low / week low, 4522 April low, 4510 prev week low, then air toward 4450 the prior swing. Voided by chop in 4540 to 4570 holding through the first hour with no clean break either side.
The White Van Stuff
The cage rebuilt entirely overnight on the reversal. ES sits 7436 below the 7475 today’s pivot and 7490 same-day floor flipped from above, with daily expected range plus or minus 0.94% (about 70 handles, 7457 to 7594) and current price already outside the implied low. NQ is parked 29172 below the 29300 same-day floor flipped from above and the 29510 intraday flip line now well overhead, daily band plus or minus 1.36% (about 400 points, 29286 to 30089) and current price also below the implied low. Crude tagged 105.31 with the 102.30 same-day cap flipped to support after Thursday’s break above 100, daily band 96.86 to 105.48 with the 100.99 intraday flip line now well below as the new line. Gold settled 4544 below the 4675 same-day floor and 4685 intraday flip line both fully broken in the overnight puke, daily band 4625 to 4745 with current price well below the implied low. Yields up, dollar up, equities and gold getting carried out.
ES is trading 7436 already below the implied low at 7456.92 after the overnight reversal. Above price the 7456 expected low is the first reclaim test, then 7475 today’s pivot stacks with another heavy interest right at the line ahead of the 7490 today’s put floor flipped to resistance. Past 7490 the 7500 (just above) leads into the 7550 all-expiry call ceiling, then 7570 / 7575 heavy interest into the 7594 expected high stack with 7600 same-day cap, 7625, and 7650 heavy interest stair-stepping above. Below price the 7425 heavy interest catches first, then 7400 stacks tight ahead of the 7365 magnet level, then the 7000 structural floor sits in the far air below. Daily band about 70 handles either side. Price below the band on a reversal is the read.
NQ is trading 29172 below the 29286 expected low and the 29300 today’s put floor flipped to resistance after the overnight reversal. Above price the 29250 heavy interest is the first reclaim test, then 29286 expected low / 29300 put floor stack ahead of the 29510 today’s pivot now well overhead. Past 29510 the 29520, 29600, 29750, 29800, 29900 heavy interest cluster cascades into 30000 the structural call ceiling stacked with same-day gamma at the same line, then 30089 expected high before 30100 and 30250 heavy interest top the upper band. Below price the 29100 heavy interest catches first, then the 29000 / 28990 magnet level stack opens the deeper cascade. Daily band about 400 points either side. The whole positioning cage rebuilt below price overnight.
Crude tagged 105.31 with the 102.30 today’s cap fully cleared and flipped to support after Thursday’s break above 100. Above 104.39 nearby above the 105.48 expected high tops the daily band with another heavy cluster at 105.95 right above, then 109.60 all-expiry call ceiling sits in clean structure. Below price the 103.34 heavy interest catches first, then 102.82 today’s cap leads into the 102.30 today’s call cap flipped to support, with 102 heavy interest tucked right under it. Past 102 the 100.99 today’s pivot sits at the flipped 100 area before the 100.21 today’s put floor and 99.17 heavy interest cascade through 98.12, 96.86 expected low, 96.03, then 93.95 magnet level catches the deeper fade. Daily band about 4 handles either side.
Gold is trading 4544 below the 4625 expected low and the 4675 / 4685 today’s put floor + pivot stack both fully broken in the overnight puke. Above price the 4575 / 4580 heavy interest pair catches first, then 4600 heavy interest leads into 4620 heavy interest at the 4625 expected low / standard floor all-expiry line. Past 4625 the 4630 catches before the 4675 today’s put floor flipped to resistance stacks with 4680 / 4685 today’s pivot right on top. Above 4685 the 4700 same-day call cap leads into 4720, 4725, 4745 expected high stack, then 4750 heavy interest leads to the 4800 all-expiry call ceiling far above. Daily band about 60 handles either side. Price well below the band on a yield-driven puke.
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