Friday before Memorial Day and Thursday already did the work. Equities and gold ripped, crude finally got carried out. Overnight the bid stayed in: NQ gap-up cleared 29330 the cap and ES tagged 7500 the round before fading back. Light data day, then a 3-day weekend. Don’t be a hero into the bell. I am hanging with the girls Today and don’t plan on trading. In the 9-5 world that hasnt been laid off, Today usually marks a half-day Friday. So don’t sit at the charts all day.
The Tape
ES put in a P-shape trend up Thursday closing 7465 on POC with value 7425 to 7478, the session that snapped the week back to the highs. Globex gap-up opened above 7486 yest high, tagged 7500 the round and got slapped back, parking 7478 at yest VAH after the fade. Holding 7478 the upside extends 7486 yest high / week high then 7500 round again into 7530 expected high and 7540 prev week high in clean air. Losing 7478 fails 7469 overnight low, 7465 yest POC, 7446 week VAH and 7425 yest VAL then 7408 yest low opens 7391, 7363 prev wk low and 7160 April POC the deeper destination. The 7478 line and 7500 round are the read into the long weekend.
NQ ripped Thursday opening 29217 and running 29553 closing 29445 with POC at 29225 and value 29138 to 29392, a trend up day with the bid all session. Globex gap-up opened above the close at 29592, ran a fresh 29665 high above the cap at 29330, and faded back inside yest value parking 29499 above the 29240 pivot. Holding 29445 the upside extends 29553 yest high / week high, 29570 prev wk VAH and 29665 overnight high into 29782 prev wk high and 29818 expected hi. Losing 29445 fails 29436 overnight low, 29426 prev wk POC, 29392 yest VAH and 29377 week VAH then 29330 the flipped cap and 29240 the pivot open 29127 yest low, 28663 week low / month low and 27622 prev month high.
CL got destroyed Thursday on CLN26 opening 101.09 and dumping to 95.76 closing 97.32 with POC at 98 and value 95.80 to 100.86, the trend down day that finally took 100 off the table. Globex opened 97.34, bid back to 99.43 on the overnight Iran headline, then faded right back to 97.45 at yest POC. Holding 97 reclaimed leads 98 yest POC and 99.43 overnight high then 100 the line and 100.86 yest VAH into 101.54 prev month high, with 102.64 yest high, 102.84 week VAH and 105.21 week high above. Losing 97 fails 96.66 week VAL, 95.80 yest VAL and 95.76 yest low / week low gate 94.50 the pivot then 93.21 prev wk VAL, 92.83 prev wk low and 88.75 the long-term magnet open. 100 is still the line either way.
GC put in a rotation up Thursday opening 4513 and running 4561 closing 4544 with POC at 4510 and value 4489 to 4532, the bid session that took gold back through the 4513 floor retest. Globex opened 4528, ran 4537 and faded back to 4521 parking right on the 4522 April low and 4513 the floor Thursday ate through. Holding 4521 extends 4532 yest VAH, 4544 yest close, 4547 week VAH and 4550 the pivot into 4561 yest high, 4570 today’s cap, 4588 week high and 4596 expected hi. Losing 4521 fails 4517 today VAL, 4510 yest POC, 4508 overnight low and 4500 round then 4489 yest VAL and 4488 yest low open 4467 week low / month low and 4388 April low. Sitting right on the April low into the 3-day weekend.
The Calendar
- 9:00 AM CT, UMich Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan Inflation Expectations Final, CB Leading Index April
- 2:00 PM CT, Fed Waller Speech
- 4:00 PM CT, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
UMich Final at 9 is the only data print before the bell. Waller at 2pm into the close. Then a 3-day weekend.
The Plan
ES:
7478 yest VAH, the line Globex parked at after the 7500 round tag and fade. Holding 7478 we extend to 7486 yest high / week high, then 7500 the round again into 7540 prev week high in clean air. Losing 7478 fails 7469 overnight low, 7465 yest POC / close, 7446 week VAH and 7425 yest VAL then 7408 yest low gates the deeper slide. Past 7408 air opens 7391 prev wk VAL, 7382 week VAL, 7363 prev wk low and 7354 week low to 7327 May VAL with 7160 April POC the destination far below.
NQ:
29445 yest close, where Globex faded back after the gap up and 29665 fresh high overnight. Holding 29445 the upside extends to 29553 yest high / week high, then 29570 prev wk VAH and 29665 overnight high into 29782 prev wk high in clean air. Losing 29445 fails 29436 overnight low, 29426 prev wk POC, 29392 yest VAH and 29377 week VAH then 29240 the pivot / week POC gates the slide. Below 29240 air opens 29225 yest POC, 29138 yest VAL, 29127 yest low into 28954 week VAL, 28663 week low / month low and 27622 prev month high the deeper magnet. The fresh break with new highs overnight is the read.
CL:
98 yest POC, the line Globex built value at after Thursday’s destruction took 100 off the table. Holding 98 we extend to 98.96 overnight VAH, 99.43 overnight high, 100 the round and 100.86 yest VAH into 101.54 prev month high, then 102.64 yest high, 102.84 week VAH and 105.21 week high above. Losing 98 fails 97.80 overnight VAL, 97.16 overnight low then 96.66 week VAL and 95.80 yest VAL gate 95.76 yest low / week low. Past 95.76 the slide continues to 93.21 prev wk VAL, 92.83 prev wk low and 88.75 the long-term magnet where the real volume sits. 100 still owns the trade.
GC:
4521 where Globex parked right on the 4522 April low and 4513 the floor Thursday took back. Holding 4521 extends to 4528 overnight open, 4532 yest VAH, 4537 overnight high then 4544 yest close, 4547 week VAH and 4548 month VAL into 4561 yest high and 4588 week high. Past 4588 the upside reopens 4664 prev wk VAL, 4688 prev wk POC and 4742 prev wk VAH the stack above. Losing 4521 fails 4517 today VAL, 4510 yest POC, 4508 overnight low then 4500 round and 4489 yest VAL gate 4488 yest low. Past 4488 air opens 4484 week VAL, 4467 week low / month low into 4388 April low where the long crowd from prev month POC 4812 finally folds.
The White Van Stuff
The positioning cage repriced overnight as NQ broke clean through the structural cap and ES tagged 7500 round before fading back. Net positioning stays positive on equities with the dealer bid still in equities and gold, and crude vol stays bid hard at IV 75 with the 92 put floor stacked well underneath. The implied bands sit ES ±0.86%, NQ ±1.27%, GC ±1.19%, and CL asymmetric 91.78 to 100.92 because Thursday’s break expanded the downside skew.
ES sits 7478 below 7480 the heavy interest shelf and 7520 today’s cap with 7500 the structural cap stacked. 7415 today’s pivot is the put line and net positioning stays positive into the bell. The 7400 today’s put floor sits as the lower edge.
NQ punched clean through 29330 the cap overnight, the line that capped through prev week. The 29500 and 29510 heavy interest layers stack right at price now as the next positioning shelf above. The 29240 pivot and 29000 put floor sit below.
CL sits 97.45 below 99.50 the overnight magnet and 100 the line, with crude vol bid hard at IV 75. The 92 today’s put floor sits well underneath as the asymmetric downside cap. Today’s cap 103 caps any reclaim attempt.
GC sits 4521 right on the 4513 recovered floor with 4525 the magnet stacked above. 4550 today’s pivot and 4570 today’s cap are the next layer up with 4600 the structural cap and 4596 expected hi as the upper edge. The 4500 today’s put floor sits below with 4488 expected lo right at yest low.
Just do your job. Then go grill.
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