Gm and happy Friday. Gold went on a tear while you were sleeping. It ran from 4159.70 to 4233.70 and built a whole value area over anything Thursday traded, so the metal crowd gets to start the weekend early. ES poked over Thursday’s 7850 high and got shoved right back under it. NQ bought back most of Thursday afternoon’s flush, and crude ran Thursday’s low out and took it right back. For me ES lives or dies at 7836.75, and NQ has to get through 31250, where Thursday’s sellers set up shop.
The Tape
ES is 7841.75, inside the value the night built from 7836.75 to 7851 and a few points under the 7847.25 print, so the whole overnight auction happened above everything Thursday called value. The night ran Thursday’s 7850 high and couldn’t keep it, which leaves September’s high, Thursday’s high and the night’s top all piled into one five-point lid. Value moving up a full shelf is the buyers’ argument, a rejected high sitting right on top of it is the sellers’, and nobody has settled that yet. Hold 7836.75 and the 7847.25 print opens the lid, with 7879, October’s ceiling, the next real volume through it. Lose 7836.75 and 7827.25, Thursday’s open on Thursday’s ceiling, catches, with 7824, where this week and the month both did their volume, right under it.
NQ is 31190, sitting on the night’s 31193 print after buying back most of Thursday’s slide to 30792. Thursday did its business at 31235 before the sellers took it apart, and that print sits on the 31234.25 open with 31250, the week and October POC, right over it. Until NQ trades through that shelf the overnight rally is a rebound inside Thursday’s damage, and I’d want to see it hold up there before I believe it. Take 31250 and the night’s 31266.50 high comes next, with 31369.75, Thursday’s top, the only thing over it that matters. Lose 31073, the floor of the night’s value with September’s high a few ticks under it, and the next shelf is the night’s low on Thursday’s value floor at 30953 to 30949.25.
CL is 91.24, over the overnight value from 90.34 to 91.01 and a hair under last week’s 91.44 print. The night ran Thursday’s 90.25 low out to 90.01, found nobody home, and bought every bit of it back, which is a failed breakdown until somebody proves otherwise. Thursday sold from the open all day, and every price it sold from is still overhead, so this bounce has a lot of tired sellers to walk through. Hold 91.01 and clear 91.44, and 92.04, October’s ceiling with September’s print on it, is the next stop. Lose 91.01 and Thursday’s 90.92 POC catches first, then the low the night already bought back at 90.01.
GC is 4206, in the bottom half of the overnight’s value, 4195.80 to 4223.70, every tick of it above Thursday’s 4170.70 high. That is a full migration, Thursday’s entire session left behind in the dark, with 4218.80 the price the night agreed on sitting over the market. The one thing it has not done is hold the top, it tagged 4233.70 and has been leaking back toward the floor of its own value ever since. Hold 4195.80 and 4218.80 comes back first, then 4259, last week’s high and the month’s, is the ceiling. Lose the shelf where last week’s 4190 print meets the night’s floor and it is thin down to 4170.70, where Thursday topped out.
The Calendar
Friday, October 9 (all times CT):
- 9:00 Michigan Consumer Expectations - Prelim (Oct)
- 9:00 Michigan Current Conditions - Prelim (Oct)
- 9:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim (Oct)
- 9:00 Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations - Prelim (Oct)
- 9:00 Michigan Inflation Expectations - Prelim (Oct)
- 12:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
- 2:30 CFTC Crude Oil Speculative Net Positions
- 2:30 CFTC Nasdaq 100 Speculative Net Positions
The Plan
ES:
The whole read is 7836.75, the floor of the overnight’s value, all of it over Thursday’s. Hold it and the 7847.25 print is the first work, then the lid where September’s high, Thursday’s and the night’s top all live, and it takes acceptance through 7853.75 to get anything done up there. That opens 7879, October’s ceiling, and 7897.50, the month’s high. Lose 7836.75 and ES is back inside Thursday’s day, with 7827.25 to 7824 the first shelf, Thursday’s open and ceiling on the month’s print. Under that, 7808 is the one that matters, Thursday’s POC on September’s ceiling, and the last stop is 7783.50, Thursday’s value floor with last week’s 7782 ceiling under it.
NQ:
NQ is sitting on the night’s 31193 print with the shelf Thursday’s sellers built right over its head. 31234.25 to 31250 is Thursday’s open and POC with the month’s print stacked on them, and NQ needs acceptance over 31250 before a long has anything to stand on. Through it, the night’s high and last week’s sit at 31266.50 and 31282.50, and the bigger target is 31369.75, where Thursday topped out. Lose 31073 and September’s 31065.50 high under it, and NQ is back in Thursday’s afternoon with 30949.25, Thursday’s value floor, the first catch. Under that, 30840 is last week’s ceiling, and below it Thursday’s flush stopped at 30792.
CL:
Crude is over the night’s value and under last week’s 91.44 print, and that print is the trigger. Clear it and 91.76, the night’s high, is the first test, then 92 to 92.04, September’s POC on October’s ceiling. Thursday’s 92.30 ceiling and 92.42 open sit right over that pair, where Thursday’s whole selloff started, and 93.01, last week’s ceiling, is as far as the card goes. Lose 91.01, the night’s value ceiling, and 90.92 Thursday’s POC goes, then 90.58, the night’s print. Under 90.34 the last floor is 90.20, last week’s value low, with the 90.01 low the night bought back sitting under it.
GC:
Gold’s decision is 4195.80, the bottom of the value it built over the top of Thursday. Hold it and 4207.50 to 4218.80 comes back, the high of this week’s day sessions and the night’s print, then 4233.70, the night’s high. 4259, last week’s high, is the ceiling, and over it 4318, the floor of September’s value, is a long way up. Lose 4195.80 and the 4194.30 to 4190 shelf goes with it, October’s ceiling on last week’s print, and below that the night only passed through on the way up. That leaves 4174.40, this week’s value ceiling, and 4170.70, Thursday’s high, then 4165, October’s POC.
The White Van Stuff
The index books put the day’s lids right on top of where price is parked, ES on Thursday’s high and NQ on the shelf Thursday’s sellers built, so the book and the profile agree on where the work is. Gold’s book says the night already spent most of the day’s room before anybody woke up, and crude is sitting in the middle of its band with nothing leaning on it either way.
ES: The same-day lid is 7850, on Thursday’s high to the point, so both maps put the ceiling in the same spot. 7860 is the next mark over it and the day’s band ends at 7885.50, with 7840 the closest mark under price and 7830 the pivot under that.
NQ: NQ is parked just under 31200, the nearest interest overhead, with the 31250 heavy mark and the 31300 same-day lid stacked over Thursday’s shelf. Today’s pivot is 31100 and the floor the book gives it for the day is 30900.
CL: Crude is under 91.50, today’s pivot, and over 90.50, the nearest interest beneath it, close to dead center of the day’s band. 93 is the same-day lid and 89.50 the day’s floor.
GC: Gold is already over 4200, the same-day lid, and a few dollars under 4211.50, the top of the day’s band. 4220 is the nearest mark over price and 4195 the nearest one under it.
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