Happy CPI Friday. Thursday ended with both indexes under everything and they spent the night taking all of it back, so throw the Thursday read in the garbage. Gold took the week’s low out by a tick and reversed off it, crude printed 104.47 and handed the whole night back before anybody was awake, and all four picked a new direction at 7:30. I lean long ES while 7658.25 holds and under 7644 I have nothing.
The Tape
ES is 7667.5, out the top of the overnight value at 7658.25 and above every price Thursday traded. Thursday closed 7598.50 and the night bought all of it back and then some, which makes two straight sessions where the breakdown was the fake and the reclaim was the trade. What it still has not done is clear 7681, where this week’s value tops out, with the 7683.50 high stacked on it, so the buyers have a rip and a shelf left to prove. Take that pair and 7688.75, where August’s value began, is the next real price, then 7726 September’s ceiling. Lose 7658.25 and 7650 catches, then 7644, September’s POC on last week’s value floor, with 7639.50 the print the night built under it.
NQ is 29438.5, back under 29450 where this week did its business, and still a long way over the overnight value top at 29316.50. The night took 29040.50 out under Thursday’s low, found nobody home, and ran all the way to 29500.25. Value never followed it, still parked at 29108 where the night actually traded, so a slip back under the week’s print this early is the first honest thing this move has done. Take 29450 back and 29500.25 comes first, then the 29520 to 29520.80 pair, last week’s POC on September’s ceiling, with 29598.80 last week’s ceiling behind it. Stay under 29450 and 29316.50 the night’s ceiling catches, then 29275.25 Thursday’s high and 29258.20 where this week’s value begins.
CL is 99.14, back over the 98.56 low Thursday left after this session already took it out at 98.54, which is a hell of a thing for a chart that printed 104.47 six hours ago. The night opened 104.32 and has sold every hour since, handing back all of Thursday’s rip and leaving the 102.76 close stranded overhead. Everything above price is now somebody who bought it higher, and where sellers won once, assume they are still there. Hold 98.56 and 99.20, the print this session built, is the first job back, then 99.57 the week’s ceiling and 100.05 the print Thursday closed under. Lose 98.54 and 97.22, where September’s value tops out, is the only shelf before 92.25 where the week built its volume.
GC is 4429, over Thursday’s 4419.10 high after running 4436.50 on the print and off a 4332.70 low. It took the week’s 4333 low out by a tick and bought the whole thing back in one session, which is the failed new low this chart has owed us since Monday. What sits over price is a month of sellers from 4443 up, and nobody has traded through that yet. Hold 4420.30, last week’s value floor, and 4436.50 is the gate to 4443 where the week and the month printed the same number, then 4450 August’s POC. Lose 4419.10 and 4405.60 catches with 4405 Thursday’s print on it, then 4385.70 where the month’s value begins.
The Calendar
Friday, September 11 (all times CT):
- 7:30 Consumer price index for August, headline and core. Already out.
- 9:00 Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary, with the inflation expectations that ride with it
- 11:00 Monthly crop report
- 12:00 Weekly rig count
- 1:00 Monthly budget statement
The 7:30 number is on the tape and the 9:00 survey is the only thing left that reaches the open.
The Plan
ES:
7658.25 is where the overnight value topped out and ES is trading over it, so that is the number that keeps the long side honest. Above it the work is 7681 with the 7683.50 high stacked on it, this week’s ceiling and the top of the night on the same shelf, and acceptance over that pair opens 7688.75 where August’s value floor sits. Clear those and 7726 the month’s ceiling is all that is left under 7726.50 last week’s and the 7728.50 high this week already printed. Give up 7658.25 and 7650 is the first catch, then 7644 where the month’s POC sits on last week’s value floor, with 7639.50 the night’s print and 7632.75 the month’s value floor under them. Beneath that shelf 7620 Thursday’s high and 7609.75 the floor of the night’s value open the door back to 7598.50, the print Thursday closed on.
NQ:
NQ has to take 29450 back, the price this week did the most business at, and it is trading just under it with the night’s whole value area beneath that. Clear it and 29500.25 the high comes first, then 29520 is the gate, last week’s POC on 29520.80 September’s ceiling, and above that pair 29598.80 last week’s ceiling stacks with 29600 August’s print on the same shelf. Take those and 29704.50 last week’s high and 29716 the week’s ceiling are what stand under 29764.80, the highest trade of the month. Stay under 29450 and 29316.50 the night’s ceiling catches first, then 29275.25 Thursday’s high with 29258.20 the week’s value floor and 29254.80 August’s on the same shelf. Under that pair 29160 Thursday’s print and 29155.50 last week’s value floor open the air back to 29108, where the night actually built its volume.
CL:
Crude is standing on 98.56 to 98.54, the low Thursday left with the low this session printed under it, and that pair is the whole decision. Hold it and the job back is 99.20 the session print, then 99.57 where the week’s value tops out, then 100.05 the print Thursday closed under, and none of it means anything until the 101.50 ceiling this session built comes back. Lose 98.54 and 97.22, September’s ceiling, is the only structure before 92.25 where the week did its business, with 90.88 the week’s value floor and 90.75 September’s print on last week’s under it. That is a lot of nothing between price and the real volume, so a break of the night’s low is air and not a level. The whole move up from 90.87 is still intact above 92.25.
GC:
Gold has 4420.30 under it, last week’s value floor, and 4419.10 Thursday’s high right on it, and that pair is the line between a failed low and a dead bounce. Above price the work is 4436.50, the high it just printed, and clearing it opens 4443 where the week and the month left the same print, with 4450 August’s POC over that. Take 4450 and 4476.10 the week’s ceiling and 4485.10 the month’s are what stand under 4488.80, the week’s high. Lose 4419.10 and 4405.60 catches with 4405 Thursday’s print stacked on it, then 4385.70 where the month’s value begins and 4382.60 Thursday’s value floor under that. Beneath that shelf 4364.70 August’s value floor and 4360, where this session’s value begins, are the last thing over 4332.70, the low it already printed.
The White Van Stuff
Three of the four are trading outside the cage the book drew for them. ES poked through its 7672.83 band top and came back under it, NQ cleared 29380 where the cap and the same-day lid share a price, and gold is pinned to 4425.72, while crude fell through the bottom of its own band and sits under a 99.22 floor. All of it got drawn for a quiet Friday and the 7:30 number rebuilt the map in one print.
ES: ES is over the 7650 pivot with the magnet sitting on the same number, and it traded through 7672.83, the top of the band drawn last night, before coming back under it. 7700 is the same-day lid, with 7675 and 7680 stacked as interest overhead. Price is 7667.5, over the 7650 and under the 7700.
NQ: NQ went through 29380, where the cap and the same-day lid share a price, and the book has nothing over it until 29500 with 29517.21 the band top behind that. 29330 flipped from resistance to support on the way through, and the 29220 pivot and magnet are stacked underneath. Price is 29438.5, over the 29380 and under the 29500.
CL: Crude fell out of 101, the same-day floor, and trades under 99.22, the bottom of the band, with 98 the first interest beneath it. Its pivot sits way down at 93.25 and the magnet under that at 88.50, so from here to the 96 and 95 pair there is nothing the book defends. Price is 99.14, between the 98 and the 100.
GC: Gold is pinned to 4425.72, the band top, with 4415 the first interest beneath it and the 4475 same-day lid a long way above. Its pivot is 4400 and the magnet 4450, which straddles price on a chart that covered that whole distance in one print. Price is 4429, over the 4415 and under the 4450.
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