GM Friends. Rory just won back-to-back Masters. Just when it looked like he was going to drop the ball and give up a 6-stroke lead into Saturday, he found a way to finish. Good Mindset to have this week. Sellers continue to get a few gifts here and there in equities, but continue to be left holding the bag. The gap down from the blockade news is already faltering. Can they finish the drill? Or will the buyers, who never seem to get exhausted, continue the march to a new ATH? My lean is with the buyers.
Friday’s Session
Friday was a parking lot. ES range of 8.50 handles. POC at 6860. Three sessions in a row the market parked at 6854-6863 and said “this is value, fight me.” That’s not rotation. That’s a man who carries boats. 167 handles on Tuesday’s gap, never pulled back, ground higher for three more sessions, accepted at 6860. Who’s gonna carry the longs?
Nobody, apparently. The blockade killed it.
NQ did the same thing. 43-handle range Friday, POC at 25301, closed at 25333 above March’s high. ES hadn’t done that yet. When the Nasdaq reclaims last month and the S&P doesn’t, tech is driving. That divergence mattered going into the weekend. It matters more now.
CL closed at 95.63, below the weekly POC at 98. Then Trump announced a naval blockade of the Strait and crude gapped $8 to 104. If you were short crude over the weekend after last week’s 16% crash.. I’ve been there. It costs more than the money.
GC faded from 4888 into Friday, closed at 4771. I said gold catches a bid on the blockade. It didn’t. Gold dropped to 4626 and bounced to 4737. Sitting on the monthly POC. Classic. The one call I made with confidence is the one that went the other way. I’m still not the best trader out there.
The Overnight
ES is at 6810, down 53 from Friday. Full gap below Friday’s value area. The Globex POC is developing at 6813.50, right at last week’s POC of 6815. The market gapped down to the exact level where last week built the most volume. That’s not random. The profile is a historical record of where participants wanted to transact. They want to transact at 6815. The question is whether that holds at 8:30 or whether Friday’s acceptance was a lie. Globex range 6802-6831. Session VWAP at 6801.
NQ at 25114, down 219. Back inside March’s range (25010-25318). Globex low 25059, right at March’s low. If that holds, we’re still inside March. If it breaks, we’re in April’s value area and 25030 (prev week POC) is the next stop.
CL at 104.13, up $8.50 from Friday. Opened at 104.78, pulled back to 102.96, holding. The developing weekly POC is at 104.10. Crude above last week’s entire value area. One-time-framing higher. Size down.
GC at 4737.80, down $33. Right on the monthly POC at 4735. That level is the line for gold today. Either the monthly profile defends it or it doesn’t.
The Map
ES
March POC 6966.75 | Prev week POC 6815.00
March close 6926.75 | Globex POC 6813.50
March low 6894.00 | Session VWAP 6801.29
Prev week VAH 6887.00 | Globex low 6802.25
Friday close 6863.75 | Prev week VAL 6688.00
Friday POC 6860.00 | April POC 6620.00
The gap opened right on last week’s POC. 6815 is where the week of April 7-11 had the conversation. Responsive buyers showed up overnight (bounce from 6802 to 6831). If they defend 6815 at the RTH open, gap fill toward 6860 is the target. That’s where three sessions said value lives. Above 6860, the prev week VAH at 6887, then March’s range starting at 6894.
If 6802 breaks, there’s nothing until 6688 (prev week VAL). 90 handles of air. Below 6688, the April POC at 6620. That’s the waterfall read from the Huddle and it’s been hitting every step.
NQ
Prev week VAH 25393.00 | March POC 25062.50
Friday close 25333.00 | Globex low 25059.25
Friday POC 25301.00 | Prev week POC 25030.00
Globex high 25194.75 | March low 25009.50
NQ last 25114.50 | Week VAL 24922.00
NQ is inside March’s range. The March POC at 25062 and the Globex low at 25059 are the same zone. If NQ holds there, it’s a dip buy into 25301 (Friday POC, gap fill). If 25059 breaks, the prev week POC at 25030 and March low at 25010 are the cluster. Below 25010, it’s a different month and the staircase from the Huddle takes over: 24909, 24740, 24348, 24150. NQ migrated 880 points last week. It can give that back fast.
CL
Prev week VAH 105.80 | Week POC 104.10
Globex high 104.91 | CL last 104.13
Globex open 104.78 | Globex low 102.96
Month POC 99.00 | Prev week POC 98.00
Friday close 95.63 | Prev week VAL 91.17
CL gapped through everything. 104.10 is the developing weekly POC. Above 105.80 (prev week VAH) the pre-crash range opens up. Below 102.96 (Globex low), the gap starts filling toward 99 (month POC) then 98 (prev week POC). The options market was pricing $11 daily swings before the blockade. Size down.
GC
Prev week POC 4848.00 | Month POC 4735.00
Prev week VAH 4855.30 | GC last 4737.80
Friday POC 4786.40 | Globex low 4725.20
Friday close 4771.00 | Prev week VAL 4704.60
Globex high 4762.50 | Month VAL 4661.90
Monthly POC at 4735 is the line. If gold holds it and builds above 4762, first target is 4771 (Friday close) then 4786 (Friday POC). If 4735 breaks, 4725 (Globex low) then 4705 (prev week VAL). Below 4705, the monthly VAL at 4662.
What I’m Watching
ES gapped to last week’s POC. That’s the setup. If responsive buyers defend 6815 at the open, that’s longs into the gap fill at 6860. Wrong if 6802 breaks. The obvious levels work because everybody sees them. That’s the whole point.
The ES/NQ divergence. NQ was above March’s high going into the weekend. ES wasn’t. Both gapped down. If NQ holds above March’s low and ES can’t hold 6815, trade the stronger one. Don’t fight both directions at once.
Crude is the tell for everything. Again. If CL holds 104 and pushes above 106, the blockade is real and equities have a problem. If CL fades below 103, it’s posturing and equities get relief. CL and ES have been inversely correlated since the Iran situation started. Watch crude to know equities. We’ll see.
The White Van Stuff
The options positioning from Friday is getting repriced. All of it. Here’s where the interest sits.
ES: The heaviest options interest is clustered at 6850 and 6875, with secondary pockets at 6800, 6825, and 6775. Those first two (6850, 6875) were inside Friday’s value area. Now they’re overhead resistance after the gap. The same-day flip level is at 6795, which means below 6795 the options positioning shifts from supportive to accelerating. ES at 6810 is 15 handles above the flip. The ceiling where call sellers are stacked sits at 6900 (same-day and all-exp). Put buyers piled in at 6750 same-day, 6500 all-exp. Expected daily range: 6788-6922. ES at 6810 is near the low end. If this gap extends, the 6775 and 6725 interest levels below are the next options-derived support.
NQ: Heaviest interest at 25300 and 25400, both above the gap. Secondary interest at 25000, 25200, 25100. Same-day flip level at 24975, right at the Globex POC of 24980. NQ at 25114 is above the flip. Below 24975, the positioning turns and 24900, 24875, 24800 are the next interest levels on the way down. Ceiling at 25450 same-day (25500 all-exp). Expected range: 24994-25568.
CL: This is where it gets interesting. The all-exp ceiling is at 100. CL is at 104. Crude is ABOVE the call ceiling. The same-day picture hasn’t repriced the blockade yet: the same-day floor where put buyers showed up is at 105, same-day flip level is at 107, both ABOVE current price. This means the same-day options were still positioned for Friday’s close at 95, not Monday’s gap at 104. When those reprice at the open, the new same-day levels will be completely different. The all-exp interest is clustered at 92, 95, 98. All below. There’s almost no options-derived resistance above 100 because nobody was positioned for crude above the ceiling. Size down.
GC: Heaviest interest at 4750, 4800, 4810. Same-day ceiling at 4850, floor at 4675. Same-day flip at 4790. GC at 4737 is below the flip, which means the same-day positioning is working against gold right now. If gold pushes above 4790, the options dynamic flips supportive. Below 4700 and 4650 are the next interest levels on the downside. Expected range: 4710-4865.
The Calendar
Monday 4/14: Nothing. The gap is the event.
Tuesday 4/15: NFIB at 5am CT. PPI at 7:30am CT. Goolsbee, Barr, Collins speak.
Wednesday 4/16: Empire State 7:30am CT. EIA crude at 9:30am CT. Beige Book 1pm CT.
Thursday 4/17: Claims at 7:30am CT. Philly Fed 7:30am CT. Industrial Production 8:15am CT.
Friday 4/18: Barkin and Waller speak. Baker Hughes.
PPI on Tuesday is the print. The blockade reprices energy. Energy flows into PPI. Hot PPI on top of a blockade is the double-hit scenario nobody wants to see.
What Could Go Wrong
If 6802 breaks and there’s no responsive buying, the next volume is 90 handles away at 6688. Four sessions of acceptance at 6860 become a false balance. Three days of “who’s gonna carry the longs” turns into “apparently nobody.” That’s the gap-and-go scenario.
If CL accelerates above 106 and holds, the energy premium reprices equities deeper. Every dollar higher on crude is a headwind.
If NQ breaks below March’s low at 25010, the “NQ leads” thesis flips. That was the bull case last week. Losing it changes the character.
The Plan
ES: 6815 (last week’s POC) holds = longs into the gap fill at 6860. 6802 breaks = different tape, 6688 next. The options flip level at 6795 is the line in the sand.
NQ: 25060 (March low / Globex low) holds = gap fill toward 25301. Breaks = 25030 then 25010 then the Huddle staircase. The options flip at 24975 lines up with the Globex POC. That’s a confluence worth watching.
CL: 104 is the developing POC. Above 106 the pre-crash range opens. Below 103 the gap fills toward 99. The options market hasn’t repriced the blockade yet. Expect new same-day levels at the open. Size down.
GC: 4735 (monthly POC) is the line. Above 4790 the options positioning flips supportive. Below 4700 and 4675 there’s nothing until 4650.
Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can’t lose.
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Amazing !
Thanks Nick for so much sharing.
Leo G