Friday was the rip of the year. ES up 84, NQ up 365, crude down ten bucks on the session. Gold did whatever gold does and tagged along with equities for reasons nobody is going to explain to you. Everybody short going in got their face peeled. It’s Monday morning and the retrace could be here. We moved past OPEX Friday so lets see what we want to do.
ES off 27 from Friday’s close, NQ off 90, crude bouncing three bucks from the weekend low, gold fading. Normal behavior. Not a reversal. I’ve been bullish equities since NQ 23k and nothing about a 27-point Monday AM pullback changes the read. The trade today is patience. Don’t chase the open. Let the first hour pick a side. If 7134 and 26700 hold, we grind higher into value. If they don’t, we fill the gap to 7089 and then 7060, where last week built. Calendar is a nap. Tuesday probably is a better read on direction for the week. Last week was an insane outlier, but let’s still pay attention.
Yesterday’s Sessions
ES opened at 7121.25, ran to 7185.75 at the high, built value 7151.50-7175.50 with POC at 7161.50, and closed at 7161.25 on 1.36M contracts. Value migrated every hour and never came back. POC migrated above Thursday’s entire range. That’s not a backfill, that’s a new neighborhood.
NQ led the whole move. Ran 26692.50 to 26883, value 26756.75-26861.75, POC 26825, closed 26827.25 right on the POC. Volume heavy into the close. Nothing rolled back. Nobody faded the high. Got on at the open or you watched.
CL got the ripped face treatment. Opened 93.18, tried 94, floor fell out. Intraday low 80.56, close 83.85. Nine dollars of damage. Profile never settled anything clean because the range was too violent. The war premium went poof.
GC ripped with equities. Open 4828.60, high 4917.70, low 4826.70, close 4875.50, POC 4900, value 4874.60-4903.50. Buyers defended every pullback. Gold doesn’t usually party with stocks. Friday it did.
The Overnight
ES opened Globex at 7120.50, ran a tight 27-point range 7109.50 to 7136.25, sitting at 7134.50. Session VWAP at 7117.53. Small giveback from Friday. Coiling right below yesterday’s VAL at 7151.50.
NQ opened at 26675.50, made 26741.75, dipped to 26612, sitting at 26734.25. Session VWAP at 26667.69. Giving back about 90 from yesterday’s POC. The tape is not in a rush to retest the breakout.
CL opened Globex at 87.42, pushed 88.44, tested 86.61, sitting at 87.28. That’s a $3.43 bounce off yesterday’s close at 83.85. Dead-cat or the start of a real retest of 90. Too early to tell.
GC opened at 4808.40, made 4835.80, sold to 4797, sitting at 4834.50. Session VWAP at 4808.20. Down 41 from yesterday’s close. Normal post-rip profit take.
The Map
The coil is between 7109.50 and 7151.50. Yesterday’s VAL is the line. Hold above and we retest 7161.50 and the highs. Lose 7117 and the air opens to 7089, then 7060.50 where last week built real volume.
26741.75 is the reclaim. Above it, yesterday’s VAL 26756.75 and POC 26825 are the staircase. Below 26612, there is nothing until 25924.75, and no volume again until 24200. The middle of the chart is empty. Do not get caught in the air.
Crude is between yesterday’s damage and last week’s volume. Above 88.44 and the retest of 90 and 91.30 is live. Below 86.61 and 83.85 becomes the magnet, 80.56 is full invalidation. Not a blind-entry zone. Watch the tape.
Gold is sitting right on week POC at 4825 with session VWAP at 4808. If this holds, yesterday’s VAL 4874.60 is the first reclaim, then POC 4900 and VAH 4903.50. Below 4815 prev week POC, the cascade is 4800.70 and then the overnight low at 4797.
What I’m Watching
ES: Can buyers defend the overnight low at 7109.50 and push value back above yesterday’s VAL 7151.50 in the first hour. Value above 7134 and a take of 7151.50 continues the migration. A quick loss of 7117 at the open is a fade day to 7089.
NQ: The 26612 floor. Lose it and the profile has nothing until 25924.75. Hold it and 26741.75 reclaim puts us back toward 26825. NQ is the leader. If NQ cannot hold, ES will not either.
CL: The bounce from 80.56 to 87. If 87.42 holds and 88.44 breaks, 90.40 is the real test. If 86.61 breaks, 83.85 revisit is live and the soft-oil tailwind for equities turns into a headwind.
GC: Whether 4825 week POC holds. If 4825 breaks and 4815 prev week POC goes, the safety bid is softening.
The White Van Stuff
ES options positioning is still calls-tilted into yesterday’s breakout. Upside ceiling at 7200, today’s cap at 7170. Yesterday closed 7161.25 inside the cap zone. The nearest-below cluster at 7099 lines up with the expected low at 7097. Magnet level way below at 6905.
NQ same-day options are skewed call-heavy, today’s cap at 26650, today’s floor at 26075. 30-day expected range 26509-27142. Yesterday’s close was mid-range. Upside targets at 27271 and 27464 if there is a second leg.
GC options data is thinner than usual this weekend. 30-day expected range 4807 to 4952. Upside ceiling and today’s cap both at 5000. Magnet level at 4695 with today’s floor right above at 4675.
CL Options Levels
For some reason, my script that pulls CL might have broken. Ill get it fixed.
The Calendar
- US 3-Month Bill Auction, 2:30 PM CT
- US 6-Month Bill Auction, 2:30 PM CT
Light day. Nothing on the tape. The real prints start Tuesday.
What Could Go Wrong
Friday was a one-way monster. Monday mornings after a one-way monster often see a retracement back toward VAL or VWAP as the last longs get faded. Nothing about 27 points of ES pullback says reversal yet. A pullback into 7089 prev week VAH would change the read.
NQ is the leader and still above prev week POC. If 26612 breaks and closes the hour below, the breakout structure starts to look extended and the air between 26612 and 25924.75 is real.
Crude bouncing from 80.56 to 87 in a weekend is not the tape saying all clear. It is the tape saying maybe. If 87 fails and 83.85 gets retested before RTH is an hour old, the soft-oil tailwind becomes a headwind.
The Plan
ES: Hold above 7134 and reclaim the overnight high 7136.25. Take yesterday’s VAL 7151.50 and I am looking for a retest of POC 7161.50, then VAH 7175.50, then the high 7185.75. If 7134 breaks with sellers behind it, first stop is session VWAP 7117.53, then yesterday’s low 7117, then overnight low 7109.50, then air to prev week VAH 7089. Below 7089 there is nothing until prev week POC 7060.50.
NQ: Hold above 26734 and push through overnight high 26741.75 sets up a retest of yesterday’s VAL 26756.75, then POC 26825, then the high 26883. If 26734 breaks, first target is 26692.50 yesterday open, then 26675.50 overnight open, then 26667.69 session VWAP, then 26629.50 yesterday low, then 26612 overnight low. Below 26612 there is air to prev week VAL 25924.75, and the tape goes quiet until 24200.
CL: CL is trying to put in a bounce. Hold above 87 and reclaim 88.44 opens prev week VAL 90.40, then prev week POC 91.30 where last week’s volume built. Above 91.30 the air is 93.18 where Friday opened and 94.04 where it failed. Breakdown: below 87 and fail 86.61, revisit is yesterday’s close 83.85, then yesterday’s low 80.56. Below 80.56 there is no reference point.
GC: Hold above 4825 week POC and reclaim 4835.80, retest is yesterday’s VAL 4874.60 and close 4875.50. Push through and POC 4900, VAH 4903.50, high 4917.70 are the upside staircase. Break: below 4825 and fail 4815, cascade is 4800.70, then 4797, then last week’s inventory floor.
Go make some money. Or don’t. Either way, come back tomorrow.
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Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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