Got out of bed and hti the garage gym. NQ had already tagged a fresh 27542 print before the cash bell. The Goggins buyers continue to never be exhausted and we’re now five weeks deep into a grind that won’t quit. With the busiest earnings week of the quarter sitting in front of us, its hard to want to do a whole lot this week except watch and wait for the moment. Friday was a 333-point NQ swing that closed right under the high. ES is pinned on Friday’s POC like nothing happened. Crude has vol north of 80 and gold is the only thing rolling lower. Your bet’s as good as mine on which side gives first, but the levels are clean and the Mag7 stack on Wednesday and Thursday after the close decides everything. As we head into the open all eyes are on me for the mythical 27420 guy. Lets have some fun.
Yesterday’s Sessions
ES opened at 7162.50, dropped to 7145.00 in the morning, then ground higher all afternoon to close at 7194.50 right on the POC. Friday range was 55.5 points, value 7167.25 to 7200.25. Friday’s brief called out 7180 to 7189 as the decision area with very little between there and 7212 if it broke. ES ripped through cleanly, tagged 7200.50 prev week high, and closed right under it. The bullish read played out exactly as called.
NQ opened at 27210, faded 80 points to 27130, then ripped 333 points to 27463 and closed near the high at 27434. POC at 27415, value 27250 to 27462. Friday’s brief said the line was 27156 hold for continuation and 26890 lose for squeeze fail. NQ opened above both, dipped well above the 26890 floor, and ripped to fresh ATH territory above the 27093 prior all-time high. Buyer-controlled session, no real pullback held longer than ten minutes after the rip started.
CL opened at 95.92, flushed to 92.68 by midday, bid back to close at 94.77. POC 94.40, value 93.04 to 95.09. Wide range $3.26 day. Friday’s brief said 94.35 was the line and 89.70 week POC was the magnet if 91.69 VAL broke. Price broke 94.35 and 91.69 hard but found bid at 92.68 above the 89.70 line. The flush-and-rip was the read. Bid showed up at the same week-low zone that held twice last week.
GC opened at 4722.30, ran to 4757.20 in the morning, faded the rest of the session and closed 4732.10. POC 4739, value 4727 to 4750. Friday’s brief said reclaim 4725 for upside and lose 4742 with 4680 next. Gold ran above 4725 to 4757.20 (cleared upside one), then faded back through 4742 to 4705.40 low (triggered downside one) without finishing the 4680 cascade. Distributing all session below the prior week POC at 4750 which has been the line all week.
The Overnight
ES opened Globex at 7200.50, traded as low as 7181.50, sitting at 7189.50 right now. Inside Friday’s value, on top of session VWAP at 7191. Overnight POC is 7189 which is right where price is. The market built a tight 20-point box overnight pinned at Friday’s POC. No commitment either direction yet.
NQ opened Globex at 27518.75, tagged 27520.25, faded to 27388, and is back at 27417 now. Globex POC up at 27478. The 27542 high came in the early bell push this morning and got rejected hard. Sitting back inside Friday’s value area. Failed breakout into the cash open is the read until proven otherwise.
CL opened Globex at 95.58, traded as low as 94.59, ripped to 97.10, currently 95.88. Overnight POC 96.20, full session VAH 96.66. Crude is the wakeup move. Overnight range was 2.51 points which is bigger than entire RTH ranges some days last week.
GC opened Globex at 4741.20, traded down to 4713.50, sitting at 4720 now. Overnight POC right where price is. Below Friday’s low of 4705.40 in the overnight by a fraction. Sellers leaning into every push.
The Map
The whole conversation is happening in a 20-point band between yesterday’s POC at 7194.50 and overnight VAL at 7185.25. Above 7200.50 and yesterday’s high opens the air pocket toward 7225 then the ceiling at 7250. Below 7180 and the prior week POC at 7155 starts pulling, with prior week VAL at 7121 below that.
Two layers stacked above price: yesterday’s VAH at 27462 and overnight POC at 27478. Both have to be reclaimed before the 27520 / 27542 high comes back into play. Lose 27388 and the overnight balance fails, opens 27344 and then air back to yesterday’s VAL at 27250.
Crude built value 95.30 to 96.66 overnight. POC at 96.20 is the line. Above 96.20 the 97.10 high comes back. Below 95.30 the overnight low at 94.59 is in play. Below 94.59 there’s air all the way back to yesterday’s low at 92.68.
Below yesterday’s POC, below yesterday’s close, sitting on the overnight POC at 4720. This week POC came in at 4720 and the prior week POC was 4750 so the trend is rolling. Above 4732 and yesterday’s close gets reclaimed. Below 4710 and the air pocket opens back to last week’s low at 4680.
What I’m Watching
ES. Does Friday’s POC at 7194.50 hold as the floor of today’s balance? If buyers defend 7185 to 7194 in the first hour and we trade back above 7200.50, the path of least resistance opens up toward 7225 then the ceiling at 7250. If 7180 fails clean with sellers behind it, the prior week POC at 7155 is the magnet and price hasn’t visited there in days.
NQ. Two failed pushes above 27500 already including this morning’s 27542 RTH tag. Watching whether buyers can absorb at the overnight POC at 27478 or whether the 27462 Friday VAH gets reclaimed and held. If we lose 27388 and can’t recover, the 27250 Friday VAL is the next pin. The streak is the streak. NQ is up roughly 4400 points off the late-March low at 23,024. Be ready for the fade once Mag7 prints land.
CL. Wide range overnight, sitting on the POC. Watching whether 95.30 holds for a continuation push toward 97 or whether sellers reclaim 95.30 and target the overnight low. The April monthly VAH is 95.24, basically right under price. Above the monthly VAH staying held is a vibe shift. With vol north of 80, expect intraday wicks both ways.
GC. Watching whether 4710 to 4720 holds as a lower-high above last week’s low at 4680, or whether the rollover continues and the prior week low becomes the next destination. Gold has been giving back the safety bid two sessions in a row.
The White Van Stuff
ES options story. The same-day cap is up at 7225 with the call ceiling stacked at 7250. Today’s pivot sits down at 7130. Heavy interest is layered at 7200, 7190, 7180, 7175, 7150. Expected high 7264, expected low 7125.50. Vol 15.4% which is compressed. The options market is pricing a calm session inside Friday’s range with the cap pinned at 7225.
NQ options story. The line in the sand above is the call ceiling at 27700, both standard and same-day. That’s why NQ failed at 27542 this morning. Heavy interest cluster at 27500 is the first wall, 27700 is the second. Today’s pivot is way down at 26790. Below us, heavy interest at 27250 then 27050. Expected high 27790.50, expected low 27079.50. Vol 20.4% with expected daily move 1.3%. Sized for a 350-point day either way.
CL options story. The cap is 100, both standard and same-day. The pivot is up at 97 which is right where overnight high tagged. Heavy interest cluster around 90 below and 95 right under price. Expected high 99.52, expected low 89.28. Vol 86 which tells you crude is the most-feared product on the board right now. The options market is pricing real moves both ways.
GC options story. The standard call ceiling is up at 4982 but the same-day cap sits right above current at 4783. Today’s pivot is 4773. Heavy interest stacked at 4733 above and 4683 / 4688 below. Expected high 4790.20, expected low 4658.60. Vol 22.
The Calendar
Light data day. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 9:30 AM CT is the only print that matters. Treasury bill auctions at 10:30 AM CT and note auctions at 12:00 PM CT round out the schedule. VZ and DPZ before the bell on the earnings side, both small enough to skip. The week is the story. META, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN all print Wednesday after the close. AAPL Thursday after the close. CVX and XOM before the bell Friday. That’s a Mag7 stack into Friday’s monthly close. Today is the calm before.
What Could Go Wrong
NQ loses 27388 with sellers behind it and the overnight balance fails. Air pocket back to Friday VAL at 27250 and below that Friday’s low at 27130.
ES can’t reclaim 7194.50 and 7180 fails. The 7155 prior week POC becomes the magnet, then air to 7121 prior week VAL.
CL fails the 95.30 today VAL on volume. Below 94.59 it opens back to the Friday low at 92.68 and that level held three times last week.
The Plan
ES: Above the 7194.50 Friday POC and reclaim of 7200.50 Friday high, look for continuation toward the 7225 same-day cap then the 7250 ceiling. Below 7180 and the 7155 prior week POC pulls. Don’t be a hero on the first push if buyers can’t hold 7185 to 7194 cleanly. Mag7 prints Wednesday and Thursday will move this either direction so risk light into it.
NQ: Above the 27478 overnight POC and reclaim of 27498 Today VAH, the 27542 morning high and 27700 ceiling come back into play. Below 27388 and the 27344 today low fails, 27250 Friday VAL is in play. The streak ends eventually. The 27700 ceiling is the line where any breakout has to fight. Don’t be short into the Wednesday and Thursday Mag7 stack.
CL: Above 96.20 today POC and the 97 same-day pivot opens the 99.52 expected high and the 100 cap. Below 95.30 today VAL and 94.59 overnight low is a quick trip back to the 92.68 Friday low. Vol at 86 means real intraday moves both ways. Size accordingly.
GC: Above the 4732 Friday close and the 4739 Friday POC reclaim, gold gets back into Friday’s value and the 4750 prior week POC is the test. Below 4710 today VAL and 4705 Friday low, the 4680 prior week low is the next stop. Gold has been distributing two sessions in a row. The trend is currently down until 4750 takes back.
It ain’t over till it’s over. Believe.
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Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.
Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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