The Game Plan: Monday, July 13, 2026
"Sir, the strait is open for normal business hours M-F only"
Fresh strikes overnight and a half-shut Strait of Hormuz sent crude gapping up through everything it built last week. Meanwhile the chip names got sold hard on Samsung’s numbers and dragged NQ down with them, and gold, the one thing that is supposed to love a Middle East headline, just sat there and faded instead. Overnight took out the Trump tweet tape bomb from Friday (hope everyone survived the V-logic event). This week I’d recommend taking it slow. Very much still in balance and looking for a direction.
The Tape
ES put in a trend-up session Friday and closed on the highs, value stacked up top with the point of control at 7623 and the value low at 7596. The overnight faded that strength on the chip selloff, opening at 7607 and grinding down to 7587 where it sits now, right on the shelf where last week and the whole month built the most volume near 7588. Above 7594 and 7596 puts overnight value back on the table toward Friday’s close at 7620. Below 7588 and the next real volume doesn’t show up until 7552 Friday’s low, then 7547 where June did its business. It sits 7590, pinned to the line the month built.
NQ is the one that got hit. Friday closed strong near 30037 with value between 29898 and the 30050 point of control, and the overnight erased all of it on the chip flush, dragging price to 29727 before it steadied. It sits 29765 now, coiling just above that overnight low and well below Friday’s value. Reclaiming 29815 puts it back inside the range it lost with 29900 the July peak the bigger test above. Below 29727 opens 29700 where June built, then 29674 Friday’s low, then air toward 29492.
CL is the mirror image, gapping up hard overnight while everything else bled, clearing Friday’s entire range and parking at 74.15. Friday was a base down around the 71.25 volume shelf, and the overnight tore through 73 and topped at 74.65 before settling into a tight hold above 73.61. As long as it stays above 73.14, Friday’s high that flipped to support, the breakout stays intact with 74.65 and then open air up to 76.08 last week’s high. A slip back under 73.14 fills the gap and puts 72 back in the conversation where last week and the month agree. It sits 74.15, holding the highest prices in weeks.
GC is the odd one out, fading while oil rips on the same headlines that usually put a bid under it. Friday held value up near 4111 and closed at 4116, but the overnight sold it through Friday’s low to 4069 and it sits 4077 now, underneath everything Friday built. Reclaiming 4080 and 4082 gets it back toward the 4090s and last week’s floor at 4097. Losing 4075 and the 4069 overnight low opens air down to 4042 where June found value, then 4032 last week’s low. It sits 4077, below Friday’s entire range.
The Calendar
Light day on the data front. No top-tier prints, so the overnight headlines carry the tape. Two Fed speakers are on the docket, Bowman in the early morning and Waller around 11:30 CT, and either can nudge rates and equities if they say something new. The Treasury budget statement lands at 1:00 PM CT and rarely moves anything. The real override today is the overnight headline tape, not the calendar.
The Plan
ES:
The whole month built its volume at 7588 and that is the line again this morning, last week’s point of control and July’s sitting right on top of where value bottomed overnight. Above 7594, ES gets back 7596 Friday’s value low and 7602 the overnight value high, and reclaiming those opens 7615 the overnight high and 7620 Friday’s close. Through there, 7623 Friday’s volume peak and 7627 Friday’s high are the targets, with 7647 June’s value high the extension. Below 7588 fails and 7587 the overnight low is the first crack. Losing that and 7552 Friday’s low is the gate, then 7547 where June did its business, then 7531 last week’s value low and 7520 July’s value low underneath.
NQ:
NQ has the most repair to do. The line to reclaim is 29815, where value bottomed overnight, and getting back above it puts price inside the range it lost, with 29890 the overnight volume peak and 29898 Friday’s value low stacked just above. Clearing 29900 the July peak is the real tell the flush is done, and through it 30034 the overnight value high, 30037 Friday’s close, and 30050 Friday’s volume peak come back into play. Below, 29727 the overnight low is the shelf, and losing it opens 29700 where June built and 29674 Friday’s low. Under Friday’s low there is air down to 29492 July’s value low, then 29350 last week’s heaviest volume where the real trade sits.
CL:
Crude cleared its whole prior range overnight and the game now is whether it holds the gap. 73.61, the base of the overnight range, is the line, and above it the breakout stays alive with 74.37 the overnight high of value and 74.65 the overnight high the first targets. Through the overnight high there is open air up to 76.08 last week’s high and then 78.81 June’s value high, the levels that come into range if the bid keeps building. Below 73.61 and 73.18 the overnight low, price falls back to 73.14 Friday’s high, the last line before the gap fully fills. Under it, 72 is where last week and the month both built the most volume, then 71.57 Friday’s close and 70 where June did its business.
GC:
Gold has to prove the overnight fade was an overreaction. 4080, the overnight volume peak, is the first reclaim, and above it 4082 July’s value low and Friday’s low, then 4090 the overnight value high and 4097 last week’s floor come back into reach. Getting back to 4103 Friday’s value low and 4111 where July and Friday both peaked would mean the whole down move got repaired. Below, 4075 the overnight base and 4069 the overnight low are the gate, and losing them opens air. That air runs to 4042 where June found value, then 4032 last week’s low and 4026 July’s low underneath.
The White Van Stuff
This isn’t a yields or dollar story, it is a headline story, and the positioning is scrambling to catch up to price. Crude ran clean above its entire options structure overnight so the whole cage now sits underneath spot as support. Equities carry heavier downside interest on the tech side than the broad index, and gold’s protective structure is stacked above a market that keeps sinking away from it.
ES: The equity band is tight, calling for a quiet day if the headlines let it be one. Price is pinned just under the 7600 same-day cap with the bulk of the interest stacked overhead from 7630 up to the 7700 structural cap. The support shelf underneath is thin until 7545 where the bigger magnet sits.
NQ: NQ is where the fear is priced, the band four times wider than the broad index. Price is sitting right on the 29770 magnet that has been pulling it all night, with the same-day cap way up at 30500 and a thick wall of interest from 30000 to 30300 capping any bounce. The downside interest builds from 29500 down to the 29000 floor.
CL: Crude’s band is the loudest on the board and price already blew through the top of it. The entire options cage now sits below spot, from the 73.37 line it cleared down through 72, so that whole shelf flips to support. Overhead there is almost nothing until 75 and the 76 structural cap.
GC: Gold’s structure is stacked above a market that keeps falling away from it. The 4085 magnet and the 4090 same-day cap sit just overhead with a wall of interest from 4150 up, and the expected low near 4051 is the line the fade is pressing toward. Under 4051 the only real interest left is the 4000 floor.
Something new is coming from me and the boys. Stay tuned.
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