The Game Plan: Monday, July 20, 2026
"Picture this...We tunnel around the straight of hormuz."
The weekend went kinetic. Fresh strikes and a choked Strait of Hormuz gapped crude up through 85 while I slept; Iraq’s export terminals went dark after a drone hit, and the one chart that is supposed to love a shooting war, gold, got sold under 4000 instead. Equities looked at a supply shock and a widening conflict and decided they would rather trade earnings, with NQ climbing all the way back into Friday’s value overnight and ES leaning on its pivot from below. My lean: respect the crude breakout until it gives me a reason not to, make the indexes prove they can hold the value they just reclaimed before I trust the bounce. We’ve been in this range for 2 months. Leaving it up or down would say something.
The Tape
ES put in a soft-close rotation Friday, value 7502.50 to 7536 on a 7528.75 POC, but it let go into the bell and settled 7496.75, back under the value it built. The overnight bid walked it right back up, a 7482 low to a 7514.75 high before it steadied, and it sits 7513.75 now, inside Friday’s range and leaning on the 7528.75 POC from below. Take that POC back and 7536 the value ceiling is next, with last week’s 7558 floor the bigger prize. Lose 7502.50 the value floor and 7482 the overnight low marks the first gate, then 7473, the low Friday and last week share.
NQ put in a wild two-sided Friday, stabbing down to 28408 before buyers dragged it back to a 28765 close on a 28850 POC, value 28686.50 to 28943. The overnight did all the repair work, grinding from 28709.75 up to 28937.50, and it sits 28932.50 now, right under Friday’s 28943 value ceiling with the entire recovery already banked. Take 28943 and Friday’s 29050.50 high opens, then 29263, last week’s floor above that. Lose 28850 the POC and 28686.50 the value base catches it, then 28512 June’s low and 28408, the line Friday and last week bottomed on.
CL gapped into a different market over the weekend, opening the overnight at 83.76 and running to 85.38, miles above Friday’s 82.16 close and the whole 80.50 to 82.77 range it built. It sits 84.40 now, on top of every level it owns with only the 85 line and clean air above it. The overnight parked value up here at 84.80, so this is acceptance, not a wick. Above 85 there is nothing built until the tape prints it. Below, the retest ladder is 83.76 the overnight open, then 82.77 Friday’s high and 82.10 its POC, with 79.60 last week’s volume line the real backstop.
GC went the other way while the war bid skipped it, opening 4005.60, poking 4011.90, then getting sold to 3986.50, and it sits 3993.50 back under the round number it keeps failing. The metal has now handed back its whole 2026 gain in the exact tape that is supposed to bid it. Reclaim 4000 with conviction and 4011.90 the overnight high, then 4020 Friday’s POC and 4026 its ceiling are the repair. Stay under and 3986.50 the overnight low is the gate, then 3978.90 the prior-week floor, 3962.80 Friday’s low, and 3955.40, June’s low, under everything.
The Calendar
Monday, July 20 (all times CT):
- 9:00 Conference Board Leading Index for June
Light day, nothing on this list turns a book. The week’s real event is Wednesday after the close, when Alphabet and Tesla both report and Intel follows, so the tech tape stays wound until then.
The Plan
ES:
ES has to take back the value it gave up Friday. 7528.75, the POC, is the trigger, with price under it at 7513.75 after the overnight reclaimed most of the range. Clear it with acceptance and the climb reads 7536 Friday’s value ceiling, then 7558 last week’s floor, then 7590 where last week and July stack their POCs, with 7620 the prior-week ceiling and 7632 its high the extension. Fail back under 7502.50 the value floor and 7482 the overnight low is the first gate, then 7473, the low Friday and last week share. Under those it opens 7440 June’s POC, then 7365 June’s value floor, with 7292 June’s low the deep line.
NQ:
NQ already did the hard part overnight and now has to prove the value holds into Wednesday’s reports. 28943, Friday’s value ceiling, is the trigger, with price right under it at 28932.50 after grinding the whole Friday range back. Push through and 29050.50 Friday’s high is first, then 29263 the prior-week floor, with 29600 July’s POC and 29700, the price last week and June both crowned, the bigger magnets above. Fail to hold 28850 the POC and the air pocket reopens, 28747 the overnight base, then 28686.50 Friday’s value floor. Under that it is 28512 June’s low and 28408, where Friday and last week bottomed, with nothing built below.
CL:
Crude is in price discovery and the only question is whether it holds up here. 84.80, where the overnight parked its value, is the trigger, with price on top of it at 84.40 and the 85 line the last thing overhead. Clear 85 and there is nothing built above until price makes it. Lose 84.80 and the retest ladder is 83.76 the overnight open, then 82.77 Friday’s high and 82.10 its POC. Under those the old range reloads, 80.96 last week’s ceiling and 79.60 its volume line, with 77.99 last week’s base and 74.00 July’s POC the deep magnets if the whole weekend gap fills.
GC:
Gold keeps losing the round number and cannot get back over it. 4000 is the trigger, with price under it at 3993.50 after the overnight failed at 4011.90 and got sold. Reclaim the number with acceptance and 4011.90 the overnight high is first, then 4020 Friday’s POC and 4026 where Friday’s ceiling meets July’s value floor, with 4044 June’s value floor and 4064 last week’s ceiling the proof the break repaired. Fail to hold and 3986.50 the overnight low guards the gate, then 3978.90 last week’s floor, then 3962.80 Friday’s low. Accept under those and 3955.40, June’s low, the last line, with the map blank beneath it.
The White Van Stuff
Crude’s positioning is leaning long and price cleared its same-day cap overnight, while both equity books are still tilted toward puts even as price climbed back into their value, so the levels that were lids on Friday are floors again. Gold sits under its 4000 line with every level on its sheet stacked overhead, and the S&P’s implied day is under a percent while the tech book is priced for nearly double it.
ES: ES is back inside its book after Friday knocked it out the bottom, trading 7513.75 under a stack of overhead interest. The 7550 shelf and the 7568 expected high sit first, then the 7575 magnet and the 7580 same-day cap into the far 7800 cap, with the 7470 put floor the line underneath.
NQ: The tech book is the loud one and price climbed back up into it overnight, trading 28932.50 just under the 29000 shelf. Above that the 29080 same-day cap and the 29216 expected high stack up, into the 29500 magnet and the 30000 cap, while the 28500 put floor is the deep line under it all.
CL: Crude’s book is the one leaning long, positioning tilted to calls and price trading above its whole same-day structure after clearing the 83.72 cap overnight. The heaviest interest sits at 84.73 right overhead, then the 85.56 expected high, with the structural cap at 85.74 the real line up. Underneath, the 79.69 same-day floor anchors a wide book that runs 79.42 to 85.56.
GC: Gold is trading under its 4000 floor with the entire book stacked above it, positioning tilted to puts and price at 3993.50. The 4000 line is the first cap now, then the 4025 pivot and the 4070 expected high into the 4095 magnet and the 4100 cap. Below, the 3990 shelf and the 3967 expected low are the same-day floor.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.
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