My Sunday lean was it was decision time for the spoos. It decided at least for now to just bounce off the bottom of the balance with a classic Globex open gap up and slowly drift back down. The US and Iran quietly quit shooting at each other, crude is handing the whole run back, and the indexes gapped clean over Friday’s wreckage like the last two weeks never happened. I don’t trust a Sunday night gap in front of a week this loaded. Make the open prove it, and keep crude on the big screen, because it is still the one driving and moving. FOMC week and I miss Daddy Powell.
The Tape
ES went nowhere Friday, a rotation between 7431.25 and 7496.75 that settled 7448 on a 7442 POC, parked on top of June’s 7440 shelf. The overnight gapped it to 7490, built value around the 7496 print where Friday topped, and stretched to 7524.75 before settling in, and it sits 7513 now, above Friday’s whole range and above the 7507 line where July bottoms its value. The gap lives or dies at the 7496 stack, Friday’s high and the overnight POC sitting together. Hold it and 7546, the POC last week and July share, is the magnet overhead. Back under 7496 and the fill runs at Friday’s value, 7470.25 first, then 7442.
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