Happy Summer trading kick-off. June is here and with the indices pinned near the highs and me still leaning long the trend that’s been intact since NQ cleared 30k. Friday’s grind carried straight into the weekend; ES poked a fresh high overnight and NQ stamped one above Friday’s before sliding back into value. The story was crude, it ripped back through 90 on Iran and Strait of Hormuz headlines while gold got dumped as the safety bid came off. We’re starting to reach the point where I never thought old boomer tech companies were going to trade like fucking meme coins, but here we are with IBM 0.00%↑ going full piss missile to the moon. Short this? The president is pumping stocks every other day and you’re trying to short this? For Fucks Sake. DON’T. Wait. Go to a pool. Play Golf. Don’t try to be the first moron to buy puts.
The Tape
ES put in a quiet grind Friday and closed 7595 right on POC with value pinned 7591 to 7605. The weekend tape pushed straight through Friday’s 7611 high and stamped 7620 fresh, value parked tight up at 7609 to 7618 with price sitting 7615 on the POC. It’s above every bit of Friday’s value in clean discovery, nothing but the 7620 overnight high and air overhead. Holding the 7609 overnight VAL keeps the highs in play, losing it drops back into Friday’s 7595 POC and 7577 low.
NQ ran the cleaner trend Friday and closed 30398 on POC after tagging 30536. The weekend tape stamped a fresh high at 30595, cleared Friday’s high, then faded right back to 30459 sitting on the 30455 overnight VAL and 30470 today POC. The 30500 round is the line it keeps pressing and slipping under. Holding 30455 keeps 30536 and the 30595 high in play, losing it fails back into Friday’s 30400 POC and 30349 VAL.
CL got the headline bid back. Friday closed weak at 88 after basing at the 86.35 low, then the weekend tape ripped it through 91 and parked 90.47 well above Friday’s whole value. It sits above today’s 89.90 POC leaning on the 90.59 VAH, back inside last week’s broken zone. Holding 89.90 keeps the bounce working toward 92.47 May VAL and 93.90 last week’s POC, losing it fails to 89.24 overnight VAL and 88.45 overnight low.
GC kept bleeding. Friday faded off the 4627 high to close 4576, then the overnight sold it down to 4518 and it sits 4539 under all of Friday’s value. The 4532 shelf where last week and last month both built their POC is the line right under price. Holding 4525 overnight POC keeps a reclaim of 4554 and 4558 Friday VAL alive, losing 4522 opens 4518 overnight low and the air beneath, with the whole Friday value from 4558 up to 4608 overhead as the wall to climb back through.
The Calendar
- 8:45 AM CT, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)
- 9:00 AM CT, ISM Manufacturing PMI (May), Construction Spending (April)
- 10:30 AM CT, 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auctions
ISM Manufacturing at 9 is the only print that moves the tape today.
The Plan
ES:
7611 is the breakout line, Friday’s high and last week’s high stacked, and ES is holding above it in discovery. Above 7611 the highs stay in play through 7618 overnight VAH, 7620 overnight high then it’s air to 7650 round. If 7609 overnight VAL holds the run keeps going, lose it and ES drops into 7595 Friday POC and last week’s POC, the gate back into value. Below 7595 fails 7591 Friday VAL, 7585 overnight low and 7577 Friday low, then it’s air down to 7536 prev week VAL and 7420 May POC where the real volume sits.
NQ:
30470 today POC is the line NQ is pinned to after stamping a fresh high overnight and fading back. Above it the 30500 round caps first, then 30536 Friday high, 30560 overnight VAH and 30595 overnight high before it’s air to 30700 round. If 30455 overnight VAL holds the highs stay live, lose it and NQ fails into 30400 Friday POC, 30361 overnight low and 30349 Friday VAL. Below 30303 prev week VAH is the gate, and past it the slide runs 30269 Friday low into the 30000 prev week POC and 29954 May VAH where the real shelf sits.
CL:
89.90 today POC is the bid-back pivot after crude ripped through 90 on the weekend tape. Above it the bounce works 90.59 overnight VAH, 91.26 overnight high then 92.47 May VAL, 93.90 last week’s POC and 94.69 last week’s VAH are the reclaim path back into the broken range. If 89.90 holds the bid stays alive, lose it and CL fails 89.24 overnight VAL, 88.68 prev week VAL the gate, then 88.45 overnight low. Below there it’s 87.60 Friday POC and 86.35 Friday low / prev week low, then air down to 85 April POC where crude built its base.
GC:
4532 is the shelf where last week and last month both built their POC, and gold is sitting right on it after losing Friday’s value. Above it the reclaim has to climb 4554 overnight VAH, 4558 Friday VAL, 4575 Friday close, 4593 Friday POC and 4608 Friday VAH before 4627 Friday high / prev week high caps. If 4525 overnight POC holds a bounce can build, lose 4522 overnight VAL and 4518 overnight low and it’s air with nothing recent underneath until 4475 prev week VAL and May VAL stacked, then 4409 prev week low and May low.
The White Van Stuff
Equity vol is dead calm into the month start and the positioning cage is stacked right overhead, both indices pressing the caps that pinned them last week. Crude vol is still screaming after the bounce blew clean through its expected high, the whole upper surface a long way up. Gold’s options surface flipped overhead as price lost the floor, everything that was support now resistance.
ES sits under the 7630 cap with the heavy interest at 7600 holding underneath. The same-day cap and the structural cap both pile up at 7630, so that’s the lid the run has to clear. The 7538 expected low and 7495 magnet are the only pulls below and they’re a long way down.
NQ is pressing right into the 30500 cap with the heavy interest stacked at 30600 just above. The same-day cap at 30300 already broke and flipped to support underneath, the cap-reclaim that carried the breakout. Nothing meaningful catches it until the 30035 expected low if the press fails.
CL vol is still bid hard at 54 and the overnight bounce blew clean through the 90.37 expected high. The 91.75 magnet is the next pull with the 95 same-day cap a long way up and the upper structure stacked toward 105. The 88 put floor flipped to the line underneath after the rip.
GC options are all overhead now, the 4625 same-day cap and 4700 cap stacked above after price lost the floor. It sits right on the 4530 expected low with the 4505 magnet just under it, the last pulls before the 4400 put floor.
New month, fresh book. Trust your prep and trade your levels.
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Thanks Nick