The Game Plan: Monday, June 15, 2026
"There was a UFC Fight on the White House Lawn and you're bearish?"
Happy Rollover/Opex Week. My least favorite week to trade. Mainly because it’s a bit messy with volume split on both contracts. No I am not having the back adjust vs non back adjust contracts debate again. You know who’s wrong. The Iran deal that was supposed to maybe land by Sunday actually got done, the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and the whole board repriced over the weekend the way it always seems to right when you want it to wait for Monday. Crude gave back what was left of its war premium and is trading an 80 handle, prices it hadn’t printed in months. Note: This is the last daily plan that will showcase numbers for the June contracts in ES/NQ. Lets have a good week.
The Tape
ES closed Friday at 7433 on a 7434 POC with value 7408 to 7443, the kind of coiled session that shows up when everyone knows the weekend holds the answer. The gap did the talking, lifting it into a tight 7518 to 7537 overnight range and parking it on a shelf that means something, last week’s 7524 value floor sitting right on May’s 7529 ceiling. Above 7537 the overnight top, the path opens to 7611 May’s high and then 7624 where last week did its heaviest business. Lose 7508 overnight value and the gap starts filling, 7461 Friday’s high, 7443 the value ceiling, then 7434 the POC back toward the 7408 floor. It sits 7528, pinned to the confluence it gapped into.
NQ led the whole thing again, closing Friday 29650 on a 29660 POC after building value 29501 to 29742. The overnight extended the rip and never gave it back, basing 30204 to 30324 and sitting 30276 in air above everything Friday built. Through 30324 the only real structure left is up at 30536 May’s high and the 30590 last-week POC, the magnet this leg is pointed at. Lose 30204 and the unwind runs 30040 overnight value, 29954 May’s ceiling, then 29760 Friday’s high and the 29660 POC. It sits 30276, holding the top of its overnight base.
CL spent Friday bleeding to an 84.30 close and the weekend finished the job, snapping clean through the whole Friday range and the 82.38 line that was the floor, down to an 80 handle nobody had circled. The overnight built value 79.70 to 81.12 and it sits 80.45, camped on the 80 line with three weeks of higher value stranded overhead. Reclaim 81.12, the top of the overnight, and the first repair is 84.13 Friday’s low, the bottom of the gap. Below 79.70 there is no profile, just air and round numbers, because price hasn’t traded down here in months. It sits 80.45, pinned to 80 with every prior shelf overhead.
GC is the chart that refused to read the room, closing Friday 4232 on a 4218 POC and then ripping the weekend gap straight up through its whole value area to 4359. The overnight based 4321 to 4369 and it sits 4359, clean above Friday’s range with the next real structure up at 4439 the prior-week value base and 4500 its peak-volume line. Above 4369, the overnight peak, 4409 May’s low is the first gate into that prior-week shelf. Lose 4321 the overnight low and 4324 today’s value floor and the gap back to 4257 Friday’s high opens up, then 4239 and the 4218 POC. It sits 4359, holding the top of the overnight.
The Calendar
- 7:30 AM CT, Empire State Manufacturing (June), the first regional read on the month
- 8:15 AM CT, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (May)
- 9:00 AM CT, NAHB Housing Market Index (June)
Light board, all of it second-tier, and none of it moves a tape that just repriced on a weekend headline. The catalyst already happened. Markets are closed Friday for the holiday, so it’s a four-day week and the back half is mostly position management.
The Plan
ES:
ES gapped into the 7525 to 7529 confluence and is holding it, last week’s value floor stacked on May’s ceiling, the same shelf the Friday brief had circled as the line above. Above 7537 the overnight high we target 7611 May’s high, then 7624 last week’s POC where the volume from the prior leg lives, with 7632 last week’s high behind it. Hold 7508 overnight value and dips into the 7518 base are for buying against the gap. Below 7508 fails and the gap fill is on, 7461 Friday’s high first, then 7443 the value ceiling and 7434 the POC, with 7408 Friday’s floor and 7385 May’s value floor the deeper nets.
NQ:
NQ is the cleanest gap on the board, sitting 30276 in air above everything Friday built. Above 30324 the overnight high we target 30536 May’s high, then 30590 last week’s POC and 30751 last week’s value ceiling where the prior leg topped. Hold 30204 the overnight low and the breakout stays intact. Below 30204 fails and 30040 overnight value catches first, then 29954 May’s ceiling, 29760 Friday’s high and the 29660 POC, with 29501 Friday’s floor under it. Thin air built fast unwinds just as fast, so 30204 is the line between a real breakout and a Sunday-night fakeout.
CL:
Crude is in free fall and there’s no profile to argue with, parked 80.45 on the 80 line after the weekend snapped every floor it had. Reclaim 81.12 where the overnight topped and the only repair left is 84.13 Friday’s low, the bottom of the gap, then 84.16 the value base and 84.90 Friday’s POC. Hold under 81 and the path of least resistance stays down, 79.70 the overnight low first, then air, because the chart is blank beneath here until the round numbers catch it. Every prior shelf, 87.38 the week’s value floor, 90.86 last week’s, 92.47 May’s, sits overhead now as resistance, which tells you how far this fell.
GC:
Gold reclaimed a month of damage in one gap, the move carrying it clean over the whole Friday range and back into the prior week’s wreckage at 4359. Above 4369 the overnight high, 4409 May’s low is the first gate, then 4439 last week’s value base and 4500 the prior-week POC, the lines that turn this gap into a real trend change. Hold 4321 the overnight low and the 4324 value base, and the gap stays defended. Below 4324 fails and the fill opens, 4257 Friday’s high first, then 4239 the value ceiling and the 4218 POC, with 4206 Friday’s floor underneath. One gap doesn’t undo a month of selling, so I’d rather buy 4369 breaking than guess at 4321 holding into the cash open.
The White Van Stuff
One headline reset every options book overnight. The index surfaces that were leaning defensive on Friday now sit mostly below price with their caps overhead, crude’s book got run straight through the bottom, and gold blew past its same-day lid into open road.
ES pushed right up to its 7550 cap overnight and is pressing it, with the 7500 to 7525 interest cluster that capped it on the way down now flipped to support underneath. The 7375 magnet and the 7300 put floor are a long way down if this gap ever fails. The book has no real argument above 7550 until the round number.
NQ blew clean through the 30000 lid that was its cap, its same-day cap, and its expected high all stacked on the round number, and it’s now in the open air above. 30000 flips to the pivot, the line that decides whether the breakout holds. The next interest overhead is the 30200 to 30500 ladder, thin enough that the pull higher is real.
CL ran through its entire surface on the way down and is resting under all of it, with the 83 same-day floor and the 85 put floor both flipped overhead into resistance. The only line near price is the 80 interest it’s sitting on, and below that the book runs out. Vol here is the loudest on the board by a mile, so the band is enormous and crude will use all of it.
GC pushed above its same-day lid and is pressing the 4400 cap, with the 4340 to 4350 cluster, the old ceiling, flipped underneath as the first support. There’s open road from here to 4400 and then nothing on the book above it. The 4200 floor is a different planet now.
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