The peace talks dropped a roadmap-to-a-deal headline over the weekend, crude took it as permission to keep bleeding, and gold finally quit falling long enough to bounce off the 4150 floor it dug Friday. The indexes did the boring thing while the grills were going, NQ grinding back toward the highs like last week’s hawkish Fed scare already got filed under nothing-happened. Light board, nobody on it but Waller at 8, and this is the first real session in four days. Could be the quietest start to the week in recent memory. Maybe too quiet.
The Tape
ES spent Friday’s holiday session in a paper-thin range, closing 7556 and telling you the long weekend really started Thursday. The overnight dipped to 7513 on the Sunday reopen, bought it all back, and parked 7562 right on the 7563 session POC, back inside last week’s 7558 value shelf. Through 7577 the overnight high the repair opens 7613 where the week and month POC stack, then 7636 the ceiling and 7649 last week’s high. Lose 7539 the overnight value base and 7513 the low and 7472 last week’s bottom comes back into play. It sits 7562, dead on the overnight POC.
NQ led all weekend, taking the overnight up to 30828 and sitting 30748, well above Friday’s thin holiday range and last week’s 30450 volume shelf. The Sunday tape rebuilt the entire upper value area, the tell that last week’s flush was positioning and not a top. Through 30828 the overnight top the path reopens to 30915 last week’s high, then the 31100 June high where the records sit. Lose 30671 Friday’s POC and 30610 the overnight POC and 30450 the week and month stack is the line, then 30353 last week’s floor. It sits 30748, pressing the session high.
CL keeps leaking as the talks make progress, slipping to 76.5 under Friday’s 76.63 value low and leaning on the 76.0 line last week built its volume around. Friday’s holiday session held a tight 76 to 77.66 and settled 77.54, and the overnight gave that right back. The whole pre-deal chart is stranded overhead, with no real shelf until 80.15 last week’s value ceiling. Reclaim 76.63 and 77.54 and a repair starts, otherwise, lose 76.0 and 73.60 last week’s low and the floor gives. It sits 76.5, pinned under value with nothing built below.
GC is the one that finally bounced, running from a 4151 overnight low back to 4238 and sitting 4222 just under the 4225 line value built around. Friday closed 4172 near the lows of a brutal three-week slide, and the Sunday tape bought the whole thing back overnight. It is still under last week’s broken structure, with 4231 the value base and 4250 the POC the gold crowd lost on the way down. Reclaim 4225 and 4233 and the bounce targets 4250, otherwise lose 4201 the overnight floor and 4172 Friday’s close and 4160 reopens. It sits 4222, an oversold bounce into the first real wall.
The Calendar
- 8:00 AM CT, Fed’s Waller speaks
- 10:30 AM CT, 3-month and 6-month bill auctions
The Plan
ES:
ES dipped to 7513 on the Sunday reopen, bought it back, and sits 7562 right on the 7563 overnight POC, holding above Friday’s thin close. Through 7577 the overnight high the repair runs 7613 where the week and month POC stack together, then 7636 the week’s ceiling, 7649 last week’s high, and 7693 June’s high in the clear air above. Hold 7539 the overnight value shelf and the dip stays a bounce. Below 7539 fails and 7513 the overnight low is the gate, then 7472 last week’s bottom where the selloff stopped. Under that it is open to 7307 June’s floor where the month’s real volume sits.
NQ:
NQ is the leader, running to 30828 overnight and sitting 30748, above the 30711 overnight value top and Friday’s holiday range. Through 30828 the overnight top the path reopens to 30915 last week’s high, then 30831 June’s value ceiling and the 31100 June high where the records live. Hold 30711 and dips stay buyable against the overnight value. Below 30671 Friday’s POC and 30610 the overnight POC fails, 30450 the week and month POC stack is the trapdoor, then 30353 last week’s floor. Under that the air runs to 29923 last week’s low where the volume shelf sits.
CL:
Crude keeps bleeding premium as the talks make progress, slipping to 76.5 under Friday’s 76.63 value low and leaning on the 76.0 line last week built its volume around. Reclaim 76.63 and 77.54 Friday’s high and close and the repair argument starts, but the next real shelf is stranded way up at 80.15 last week’s value ceiling, then 86.66 and 91.30 where June’s volume sits overhead. Hold 76.0 and the slide pauses. Lose 76.0 and 73.60 last week’s low and the base gives way. Under it there is almost no profile, just the 73 and 72 round numbers price has not visited in a long time.
GC:
Gold finally caught a bounce, running from a 4151 overnight low up to 4238 and sitting 4222 just under the 4225 line value built around overnight. Reclaim 4225 and 4233 where the overnight ceiling and last week’s lower value stack, and the bounce has a case toward 4250 last week’s POC, then 4365 June’s POC well above. Hold 4201 the overnight floor and the bounce keeps its footing. Lose 4201 and 4172 Friday’s close and 4160 where Friday and last week share a low is the line. Under that it reopens 4151 the overnight low and air to 4120 June’s value base where the month’s volume sits.
The White Van Stuff
The index books are about as calm as they get, both expected days tight and positioning leaning bullish under a couple of caps a long way overhead. Gold’s book sits balanced with price pinned between a near floor and the caps it lost last week.
ES has the calmest book on the screen, the expected day under a percent wide and the 7700 cap a different planet overhead. The 7545 magnet is the near-shelf under price, with the put floor parked way down at 7400. It sits 7562, mid-cage with room up to the 7625 expected top.
NQ‘s book reads the same, bullish and roomy, with the 31000 same-day cap and the 32000 cap the lines a breakout aims at. The 30490 magnet and the 30425 put floor stack just under price. It sits 30748, mid-cage with the caps overhead.
CL still owns the loudest book on the board, the cap stranded way up at 100 and the magnet at 81.55, both a different universe from where price trades. The only marks near price are the 76.75 interest just overhead and the 75 area beneath, and below the expected low the book thins to nothing. It sits 76.5, mid-band with the whole surface tilted toward where crude used to be.
GC has a balanced book, the 4382 cap the line that capped last week and the 4287 expected top the nearer wall. The 4258 pivot and 4233 interest sit just overhead, with the put floor down at 4183 the next real line beneath. It sits 4222, leaning on the bounce into a stack of overhead interest.
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