Gm. Not much changed from last night’s weekly prep. So keep it light and tight Today. Crude finally quit falling long enough to build a base over 70 with the war premium fully gone. Light Monday, nobody on the board, the first real session of a new week, and I am not chasing this thing until sellers take 29550 back. In other news me and Stowe bring you another show Tonight at 8 pm CT. VIBECHECK: A mental game hour, live and unscripted.
The Tape
ES spent Friday rejecting its own bounce, opening 7380, tagging 7459, then selling the whole thing back to close 7380 right at the low on a 7422 POC. The overnight gapped up off the Sunday reopen and ran back to 7455, parking value tight between 7423 and 7440 around a 7435 POC, and it sits 7435 now. That puts it back inside Friday’s value but pinned under the 7442 to 7444 shelf where Friday’s value top and the week and month POC all stack, the same wall that capped the bounce. Reclaim 7444 and the upside opens through 7459 Friday’s high toward 7475 last week’s value ceiling. Lose 7408 the Friday and prior-week value floor and 7380 the close gives, then 7360 the shared low with June’s 7307 floor under it.
NQ took the worst close of the week Friday, opening 29362, running 29716, then knifing to 29182 and finishing 29312 near the lows on a 29550 POC. The overnight bought it back, lifting to 29684 just under the wall before settling to 29487 on a 29500 POC. It sits 29487 under Friday’s POC and a long way beneath 29700, the line where last week and the whole month parked their volume and every bounce has died. Reclaim 29700 and 29716 Friday’s high opens the repair toward 29890 the prior week’s value high. Lose 29440 Friday’s value floor and 29392 last week’s floor and 29229 June’s value low is the gate, with 29183 the shared low and 28506 June’s bottom beneath it.
CL put in another down day Friday, ranging 70.56 to 68.55 and closing 69.51 on a 69.25 POC, with that 68.55 low matching the June and prior-week floor. The overnight finally bid it back, lifting off 69.32 to 70.98 and sitting 70.21, above Friday’s whole range and back over the round 70 last week built its volume around. The war premium is fully gone now, and crude is trying to decide if 68.55 was the bottom or just another shelf on the way down. Reclaim 70.98 the overnight high and the air above runs to 73.06 last week’s value high and 73.20 June’s POC. Lose 70 and 69.25 Friday’s POC, then 68.55 the floor June and the prior week keep finding.
GC was the one green close Friday, opening 4059, running 4111, and finishing 4086 in the upper half on a 4100 POC. The overnight handed it right back, fading from 4101 down to 4062 and sitting 4079, back under Friday’s value and the 4100 POC. That is the tell on the screen this morning, gold fading while stocks bounce, the safe-haven bid still nowhere with the rate-hike crowd in control. Reclaim 4082 today’s value edge and 4100 Friday’s POC for a push toward 4107 the top of the prior week’s value and 4111 Friday’s high. Lose 4069 the overnight floor and 4050 Friday’s low and 4049 June’s value floor opens, then 3976 where last week and June share a bottom.
The Calendar
Monday, June 29 (all times CT):
- 9:30 Dallas Fed manufacturing index for June
- 10:30 3-month and 6-month bill auctions
Light board to open the week. The Dallas Fed number is second-tier and the auctions are routine, so nothing with teeth forces the open. The morning trades the levels and last week’s damage, not the data.
The Plan
ES:
ES sits 7435 on the overnight POC, coiled just under the 7442 to 7444 shelf where Friday’s value top and the week and month POC all stack. Reclaim 7444 and 7459 Friday’s high and the overnight high come first, then 7475 last week’s value high, with 7559 June’s value high the bigger target in the air above. Hold 7423 the overnight value floor and the bounce keeps its footing. Below 7408 where Friday’s and the prior week’s value floor stack, 7380 Friday’s close goes, then 7360 the low it shares with last week. Under 7360 there is nothing built until 7307, June’s low where the month did its real business.
NQ:
NQ sits 29487 on the overnight POC, under Friday’s 29550 and a long way below the 29700 wall where last week and the month stacked their volume. Reclaim 29700 and 29716 Friday’s high turns the bounce into a real repair toward 29890 last week’s upper value, then 30547 June’s value ceiling well above. Hold 29440 Friday’s value floor and the dip stays buyable. Below 29392 last week’s floor and 29377 the overnight value low, 29229 June’s value floor is the gate, then 29183 the low Friday shares with last week. Under 29183 the air opens with nothing structural until 28506, June’s bottom where the month’s volume base sits.
CL:
Crude reclaimed the round 70 overnight and trades 70.21, back over the line last week built its volume around with Friday’s whole range beneath it. Through 70.98 the overnight high there is open air up to 73.06 where the prior week’s range topped out and 73.20 June’s POC where the real supply waits. Hold 70 and the base builds from here. Lose 70 and 69.85 the overnight floor, 69.25 Friday’s POC catches the first leg, then 68.55 the floor June and the prior week keep finding. Under 68.55 there is no profile left, just the round numbers down to 67.
GC:
Gold faded back under value overnight and sits 4079 on the overnight POC, under the 4082 value edge and the 4100 Friday POC it lost. Reclaim 4082 and 4100 and the bounce targets 4107 last week’s recovery high, then 4111 Friday’s high, with the air above stranded all the way up to 4365 June’s POC. Hold 4069 the overnight floor to keep a base under it. Lose 4062 the overnight low and 4050 Friday’s low, 4049 June’s value floor opens, then 3981 last week’s lower shelf. Under that 3976 where the prior week and June share a bottom is the last shelf before the slide reopens.
The White Van Stuff
The whole screen is still positioned for the downside it just traded. The put side stays loaded across both indexes and gold gapped back under its floor overnight, the surface tilted defensive even as the chips try to bounce. Crude is the one book pressing up into its cage instead of falling out of it, the expected day a tight 67 to 71 now that the volatility has bled out with the premium.
ES owns the calm book of the four, the expected day barely a percent wide and price sitting just under the 7450 interest shelf. The 7460 same-day cap and the 7475 expected high are the marks a bounce has to clear, the 7400 put floor the first real line beneath.
NQ carries the loud book, the expected day pushing 1.74 percent wide and the volatility still cranked. Price sits on the 29500 pivot with the 29750 same-day cap overhead and the 29900 magnet above it, the 29000 put floor the deep line beneath.
CL is the one trading up into its book, the 71 put floor flipped overhead after the overnight reclaim and the 75 same-day cap the next real wall. The expected day runs a tight 67.44 to 71.02, and price sits 70.21 pressing the top of the band.
GC gapped back under its own floor overnight, the 4100 put floor a line overhead now instead of under price. The 4157 expected high caps a bounce and the 4195 magnet sits well above, the 4035 expected low and the 4000 put floor the marks beneath.
Deep breath, calm mind. Have fun out there.
This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.
I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick