Friday was the worst day of the year. The chip names cratered the indices and a hot 172k jobs print spiked yields into rate-hike talk, so everything got sold at once, stocks, bonds, gold, crude. The only thing that caught a bid overnight was crude, ripping back through 95 as Iran and Israel traded missiles again and the Strait of Hormuz supply scare came back, though even that already fizzled. Nice gap down and rip in the indicies. Equities are trying to claw their way back into value above 29420 guy. Be careful out there Today. I’m not rushing into this week, but I have a feeling the bulls aren’t full “schools out for summer” yet. Still a day like Friday is fun to watch. Since 23k I’ve been waiting for a meanful pullback.
The Tape
ES got taken apart Friday, opening 7547 and selling straight to a 7400 close on the lows, giving back the whole prior week’s value as yields jumped and the chip tape bled into everything. The overnight probed lower to 7355 then clawed back, reclaiming the 7422 value floor and the May POC sitting right under it, now pressing the 7454 high. It’s back inside the lower third of Friday’s range with the 7465 POC the next line to win. Hold above 7422 and the repair runs 7465 then the 7524 prior week floor. Lose 7395 and the 7379 Friday and week low is where it breaks, and under it 7355 reopens the air toward 7338 May value.
NQ took the worst of it Friday, the semis cratering it from 30035 down to a 29016 close and gutting the entire week’s value in one session. The overnight undercut even that, flushing to 28822 before a hard bounce back to 29398 that reclaimed the 29240 May POC and the overnight value with it. It’s the weak one that snapped back hardest, now pressing the 29408 high with all of last week’s value still hanging in the air above. Hold the 29240 shelf and the snapback can stretch to 29784 the Friday value high then 29948 last week’s floor. Lose 28975 the Friday low and 28822 comes back, and under that it’s air to 28337 May value.
CL got dumped with everything else Friday into a 90 close, then ripped back hard overnight on the headline tape, running 95.47 before the move fizzled and handed most of it back to 92.26. It’s two-sided and unstable, back under the 93 prior week POC and the 92.47 May value floor after failing to hold the spike. The whole thing reeks of a knee-jerk that’s already cooling. Reclaim 92.47 and the move gets a second life toward 93.44 then 94.50 overnight value. Lose 91.92 the overnight low and Friday’s 90 value comes right back into play.
GC got liquidated Friday, dropping from 4499 to a 4343 close as the rate-hike scare hit the one trade nobody wanted, slicing clean through its whole May range. The overnight kept it heavy, probing 4293 before a bounce back to 4350 that just barely reclaimed the 4338 Friday low. It’s still the orphan, the only asset that didn’t get the bid, sitting below every prior week and month line stacked overhead. Hold above 4338 and it can press 4377 then the 4409 May low that’s now resistance. Lose 4314 and 4293 is the gate, and beneath it there’s nothing but air.
The Calendar
- 10:00 AM CT, NY Fed Survey of Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)
- 10:30 AM CT, 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auctions
The Plan
ES:
ES clawed back the 7422 Friday value floor and the 7420 May POC under it overnight, coiling 7451 right beneath the 7454 high. Above 7454 the repair runs 7465 Friday POC, then 7500 and 7524 the prior week floor, with 7624 prior week POC the far line where last week broke. Hold 7422 and the repair has legs, lose 7416 today POC and 7395 the overnight floor and 7379 the Friday and week low gives way. Below 7379 the 7355 overnight low reopens air down to 7338 May value where the real volume sits. Light data today, so the open is a pure read on whether Friday’s flush found buyers or just paused.
NQ:
NQ snapped back to 29398 out of the overnight flush, reclaiming the 29240 May POC and the overnight value with it, pressing the 29408 high. Above 29408 the move extends to 29784 the Friday value high, then 29948 last week’s floor and 30590 last week’s POC far overhead where the air sits. Hold 29240 and the recovery has room, lose 29060 the overnight base and 28975 the Friday low gives way, then 28822 the overnight low. Below 28822 it’s air to 28337 May value, the deeper shelf. It took the most damage and bounced the hardest, so let it prove 29240 holds before chasing the snapback.
CL:
Crude ran 95.47 overnight on the headline bid then fizzled back to 92.26, sitting under the 92.47 May value floor and the 93 prior week POC it failed to hold. Above 92.47 the second-chance bounce runs 93 then 93.44 the overnight floor and 94.50 the overnight POC, with 96.58 last week’s high and 98 May POC stacked above. Lose 91.92 the overnight low and 91.29 Friday’s value high cracks, then 90.86 last week’s floor and it’s air back to the 90 Friday value the rip came out of. This is a two-sided headline market, so the level it closes the morning on beats the spike. The geopolitical tape can gap it either way, so size for the noise.
GC:
Gold reclaimed the 4338 Friday low off the overnight bounce and sits 4350, the first sign of life after getting dumped through its entire range Friday. Above 4338 it can press 4351 overnight value then 4377 the high, and the real overhead test is 4409 the May low that flipped to resistance, then 4439 last week’s floor and 4500 last week’s POC. Hold 4338 and the recovery builds, lose 4314 the overnight base and 4334 POC and 4293 the overnight low is the gate. Under 4293 there’s no profile left beneath it, just air, because it’s already below everything the last month built. Let it earn back 4409 before anyone calls the bottom in.
The White Van Stuff
Friday’s hot number jammed yields higher and flipped the equity books bearish, so both index surfaces are stacked overhead now with price pinned under the pivots and the put floors knocked above the tape. Crude is the loud one, vol screaming into the mid-50s with the band blown wide as the headline bid spiked and faded. Gold’s whole surface sits overhead and lopsidedly put-heavy, price clawing at the bottom of it with thin air underneath.
ES sits under the 7478 expected high with the 7480 put floor flipped right above it, the first real shelf the bounce has to clear. The 7545 magnet and 7555 pivot are the bigger lid into the 7600 cap that held all last week. Balanced and heavy, the surface wants proof before it lets price back up.
NQ is the heavy one, its surface stacked overhead from the 29400 put floor it’s testing up into the 29700 cap, with vol still screaming after Friday. It clawed back to the line it fell through, so reclaiming 29400 and holding is the tell the snapback is real. Below, the 28700 put floor is the deep line if the bounce fails.
CL vol is the loudest on the board, the expected band alone runs 87 to 94 and price is whipping the middle after the spike and fade. The 93 put floor and 94 pivot are the lid the bounce stalled under, with the 95 cap and the 105 cap a long way up. The 87 expected low is the deep line if the knee-jerk fully unwinds.
GC flushed through its whole same-day surface Friday and is clawing at the bottom of it, the 4350 put floor right at price with the 4424 expected high and 4505 magnet stacked well overhead. The book leans heavily to the put side, which is exactly why every bounce keeps getting sold. The 4305 expected low and 4300 floor are the last lines before the air opens up.
Let the level come to you. No ragerts.
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