The Game Plan: Monday, May 11, 2026
"the bear beating will continue until you stop talking about the bubble."
GM and Happy Monday. Last night we had episode 02 of SUNDAYTICKS. Production getting better. Still some kinks but we will get things going before we launch the Weekday Replay show. How are we feeling about this week. As I said last night on the show, the rally is starting to give me that bearish tingle. I am just not ready to try to short this pig just yet. Head on a swivel, though, because it’s getting a little silly. Doesn’t mean it can’t get even more stupid, though.
The Tape
ES put in a trend day up Friday, closing at 7421 right against the 7428 session high. Value built between 7412 VAL and 7421.75 VAH with POC at 7420. The upper third of the range took all the business. Globex opened at 7413, pushed to 7420.75 and is sitting at 7414 right against today’s developing POC at 7412. Inside Friday’s value, no decision yet, the digestion line. Two sessions of agreement at 7412-7420 is the read.
NQ was the leader. Friday opened at 28878 and closed at 29339, with the POC at 29285 setting the floor for any pullback. Globex pushed to 29389 overnight, ticks above Friday’s high, and we’ve leaked back to 29308. Back inside Friday’s value at 29127-29339. Sixteen sessions of green in this name. Hard to fight that.
CL got the face ripped off. Friday closed at 94.91 inside a tight 93.91-96.18 day after a brutal prior week. Week opened at 100.29 (gap up to retest 100) and immediately got walked to 96.59 low. Currently 97.04 right at today’s VAL. Every push above 100 has been sold for three weeks running. Crude is doing what crude does.
GC gave some back. Friday closed at 4733 right at the POC inside a 4710-4760 day. Globex opened at 4679 with a fade and tagged 4655 low before buyers stepped in. Currently 4703 right against today’s POC at 4700. Sitting below Friday’s whole value area at 4716-4738. Digestion not breakdown.
What I’m Watching
ES sits on Friday’s high cluster. The bull-case is acceptance above 7420 reopens the 7486 daily expected top and prices in fresh highs. The bear-case is rejection of the 7420 stack sends us back into Friday’s range body at 7407 today VAL, 7392 Friday low, eventually 7351 1D min. Two consecutive sessions have built POC right around 7412-7420. That’s where the market wants to do business, and the auction either accepts higher or rolls back. Light calendar today means the tape decides at the open. Don’t fight a trend day, don’t chase a rotation day.
NQ is the runaway train this month. Friday tagged 29340 and Globex pushed to 29389 before backing off. The bull-case is acceptance above 29345 today POC and we’re pricing in fresh ATH zone with 29500 Monday cap the first real test and 29716 today’s expected top right behind. The bear-case is 29320 session VWAP breaks and the tape rolls back into Friday’s body, with 29291 today VAL, 29225 today low, 29127 Friday VAL is the staircase. Sixteen sessions of green tells you the trend, the question is when it pauses. Honest to god, this thing has gone vertical and the screen will be there tomorrow.
CL is the cleanest read on the board. The 100 line capped Sunday’s spike again. Third week in a row that’s the rejection ceiling. The bull-case is 98 today POC holds and we work back to 99.10 then take another swing at the 100 line that won’t break. The bear-case is 98 fails, 97.13 today VAL and 96.59 Globex low open up and we’re back testing the 95.36 Friday POC zone. Tuesday API and Wednesday EIA inventory are the catalysts on the horizon. Until then the tape consolidates after the overnight flush.
GC is digesting Friday’s reach toward 4760. The bull-case is 4700 today POC holds and we rebuild back into Friday’s value at 4716-4733. That’s the line that broke and the level price has to reclaim. The bear-case is 4700 fails and 4675 today VAL, 4655 Globex low, the 4652 expected floor cascade open up. That’s a 50 handle slide into the lower 1D band. With no major data drop today gold is a sentiment trade. If equities hold the highs gold drifts. If equities crack gold catches a bid.
The Calendar
Light day. Existing Home Sales for April at 1:00 PM CT (after open, before close, won’t move the tape on its own). Treasury bill auctions after that. No major data drops, no Fed speakers. The tape decides.
The Plan
7412 today POC is the digestion line. Above 7412 we target 7417 today VAH, then 7420 Friday POC and the 7421 close cluster, 7428 Friday high which lines up with 7427 prev week VAH. If that cluster breaks the path opens to 7486 1D max with open air above. Below 7412 fails and 7407 today VAL, 7392 Friday low cap the first slide. Then it’s air to 7282 prev week VAL and 7160 April POC where the real volume sits. Light day, the tape decides at the open.
The Bracket: Trigger 7412 (today POC and Friday VAL, the digestion line). Above 7412 holds the cascade runs 7417 today VAH, 7420 Friday POC, 7428 Friday high, 7427 prev week VAH, 7486 upside expected. Below 7412 fails through 7407 today VAL, 7392 Friday low, then air to 7282 prev week VAL, 7160 April POC. Voided by chop between 7410 and 7418 through midday with no clean break.
29320 session VWAP is the line the tape’s coiling around. Above 29320 holds we target 29345 today POC, 29340 Friday high cluster, 29389 Globex high. If 29389 breaks we go for 29500 session ceiling then 29716 expected ceiling. Below 29320 fails and we target 29291 today VAL, 29285 Friday POC, 29127 Friday VAL is the staircase. Below 29127 there’s air down to 28670 prev week POC and 27400 April POC where the real volume sits. Don’t fight the trend day.
The Bracket: Trigger 29320 (session VWAP, the line the tape’s coiling around). Above 29320 holds the cascade runs 29345 today POC, 29389 Globex high, 29500 session ceiling, 29716 expected ceiling. Below 29320 fails through 29291 today VAL, 29127 Friday VAL, then air to 28670 prev week POC, 27400 April POC. Voided by chop between 29300 and 29360 through the first hour with no acceptance either side.
98 today POC. Above 98 we target 99.10 today VAH, then 100 the rejection cap, 100.19 expected high. If 100 breaks we get the fourth weekly swing at 102.13 prev week VAH where the real cap sits. Below 98 fails and 97.13 today VAL, 96.59 Globex low, 95.36 Friday POC are the staircase. Below 95 there’s air down to 90.31 prev week VAL and 89.70 April POC. EIA Wednesday is the override.
The Bracket: Trigger 98 (today POC, the session anchor after the overnight flush). Above 98 holds the cascade runs 99.10 today VAH, 100 rejection cap, 100.19 expected high, 102.13 prev week VAH. Below 98 fails through 97.13 today VAL, 96.59 Globex low, 95.36 Friday POC, 90.31 prev week VAL, 89.70 April POC. Voided by chop in 97.50-98.50 through Tuesday API.
4700 today POC, the line the Globex bounce held. Above 4700 we target 4705 today VAH, 4716 Friday VAL, 4733 Friday POC magnet, 4760 Friday high. If 4760 breaks we extend to 4775 prev week high then 4812 April POC where the real overhead volume sits. Below 4700 fails and 4684 VWAP, 4675 today VAL, 4655 Globex low are next. Below 4655 the floor opens to 4584 prev week VAL. Your bet’s as good as mine on the precious.
The Bracket: Trigger 4700 (today POC, the line the Globex bounce held). Above 4700 holds the cascade runs 4705 today VAH, 4716 Friday VAL, 4733 Friday POC, 4760 Friday high, 4775 prev week high, 4812 April POC. Below 4700 fails through 4684 VWAP, 4675 today VAL, 4655 Globex low, 4584 prev week VAL. Voided by chop in 4690-4710 with no event on the tape.
The White Van Stuff
Equities positioning is still as bullish as it gets. ES sits below the 7415 session cap with expected range 7351-7486, plus or minus 67 points. NQ is sitting between today’s POC at 29345 and the 29500 Monday cap, expected band 28948-29716, plus or minus 384 points. Crude has same-day structure all stacked at 99 from Friday’s lower close with expected range 90.65-100.19, on either side of 4.77 handles. Gold has same-day levels around 4680-4690 that got run through by Friday’s rally, daily band 4652-4788, a range of 70 handles. Light calendar today means the options levels likely set the cage.
ES is sitting right against the session ceiling at 7415 which converges with Friday’s 7421 close cluster. Heavy options interest stacks at 7425, 7430, 7450 and 7475. That’s the cascade ceiling above price if the digestion line at 7412 holds. The call ceiling at 7400 is below price now and acts as the floor of the call-dominated structure. Below price, heavy interest at 7375, 7350, 7300 and the same-day expected low at 7351 paint a 60-point downside cage before the 7275 put floor comes in. Daily expected range is roughly either side at 67 points on either side. Call this a 1% expected day.
NQ blew through its all-expiry call ceiling at 29000 weeks ago. The upside structure now is the 0DTE ceiling at 29500 with daily expected high at 29716 right behind. Above 29500 the heavy interest stairway runs 29750 then the big 30000 cluster. Below price, the 29300 zone is heavy with options interest and lines up with today’s POC. That’s the magnet. Below 29300 the cage opens up to 28948 session floor, then 28900, 28750. That’s a 600-point downside slide before the 28690 same-day magnet catches. Daily expected range of 768 points tells you the options crowd is pricing in real movement either way.
Crude options structure points to a 4.77-handle cage today. The 99 session cap and 100 call ceiling sit right where Sunday’s Globex spike got rejected. That’s three handles of dense options resistance from current spot. Above 100 there’s air to 103 where the next heavy interest cluster sits. Below price, the same-day floor is 95.50 with the magnet at 94.50 in Friday’s POC zone, and 90.65 1D min is the wider boundary. The daily max basically matches Friday’s high at 100.19, which means the options crowd doesn’t think we re-take 100 today, while the floor structure suggests buyers come in 1-2 handles below current.
Gold’s same-day structure got blown through by Friday’s run. The same-day ceiling, magnet and floor are all sitting 15-25 handles below current price, which means they flip from resistance into support today. The bigger read is the all-expiry call ceiling at 4789 right against the 4788 daily expected high. That’s a 90-handle cage to the upside. Heavy options interest stacks at 4739, 4764, 4814 and 4839 if we break above the call ceiling. Downside, 4664 heavy interest then 4652 expected floor define the daily floor. About 50 handles below current. The options crowd is positioned for chop in this 90-handle band with the bias still slightly upside down given the structure flip.
Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. And sellers continue to fucking get punched in the mouth. Good Luck This Week.
This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.
I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick