Friday’s eod move is still in our hearts and minds. Is this the last-ditch effort in the rally? Are the bond traders the smartest guys in the room? Friday's reversal still has price holding the weekend hostage and the pre-market kinda forgot about it. ES rolled off 7528, NQ unwound sixteen straight green days in one Globex, gold lost an entire structural layer, and crude finally cleared 100. Then the contract rolled. CLM26 (June) goes off Wednesday, CLN26 (July) is the new front, and the Sunday-night spike-and-puke ran 101 to 104 to 99 in one session. Equities sit under Friday's close, gold feels around for a floor, oil hands you a new contract to figure out. Let’s see how it shakes out. We finally had a SUNDAYTICKS go off without a hitch. I appreciate everyone who hangs out on their Sunday evening. Even though the chat was still yelling at me for codes half the time.
The Tape
ES put in a tight rotation Friday, closing 7432.50 on POC after a 55-handle range 7475.75 to 7420.25. Globex held tight overnight, swinging 7376 to 7433, parking 7420 right back on the Friday VAL line. Bull-case is 7420 holds stacked with month POC, the 7432 Friday POC / week POC / close cluster reclaims, and the upside opens 7455 VAH into 7475 yesterday high then 7478 prev week VAH. Bear-case is 7420 fails, 7400 overnight POC slides into the 7391 prev week VAL / 7385 overnight VAL stack, then 7363 prev week low gates air down to 7282 prev week VAL and 7160 April POC.
NQ ran a wider Friday session, closing 29231 after a 397-point range 29486 to 29089. Globex parked 29220 right under the 29218 Friday VAL. Bull-case is 29218 reclaims, 29274 overnight high goes, and the upside opens 29300 yesterday POC then 29426 prev week POC into 29486 Friday high. Bear-case is 29220 fails, 29139 overnight POC slides into 29089 Friday low, then 29005 prev week VAL stacked with 28990 overnight low opens air to 28742 prev week low and 27622 prev month high. Sixteen straight green days ended in one Globex.
CL rolled to the July contract this weekend. CLM26 (June) goes off the board Wednesday, CLN26 (July) is the new front and sits $4-5 below CLM in the carry. CLN26 closed 101.02 Friday after a tight 4-handle range 97.23 to 101.57. Sunday-night Globex opened 101.74, spiked 104.37, then puked to 98.87 and bid back to 99.07. Bull-case is 99 holds, 100 reclaims, 101.02 Friday close opens 101.57 Friday high then 104.37 the rejected Sunday spike. Bear-case is 99 fails, 98.87 overnight low cracks, 97.23 Friday low gives, then the 96.44 expected low / 96.50 put floor stack opens the deeper test. All CL numbers in this brief are CLN26.
GC finished the prev week destruction Friday, closing 4549.80 on POC 4559 after a 57-handle range 4571 to 4513. Globex parked 4558 right back at the Friday POC. Bull-case is 4558 holds, 4565 Friday VAH reclaims, 4571 Friday high opens 4595 high-vol magnet into 4615 Friday open territory. Bear-case is 4558 fails, 4533 overnight low slides into 4513 Friday low / prev week low stacked, then air to 4500 structural floor and 4450 April put floor. Yields are the trade and the long crowd from prev month POC 4812 is starting to puke.
The Calendar
- 9:00 AM CT, NAHB Housing Market Index (May)
- 10:30 AM CT, 3-Month and 6-Month Treasury Bill Auction
- 3:00 PM CT, TIC Flows (March)
Light data day. Nothing on the morning tape that overrides structure. The print risk lives Tuesday through Friday this week.
The Plan
ES:
7420, stacked on overnight last, month POC, and Friday VAL where Globex parked. Above we target the 7432 yesterday POC / week POC / close cluster into 7475 Friday high. Below opens 7385 overnight VAL stack then 7363 prev week low gates air to 7282 prev week VAL and 7160 April POC. Quiet morning, watch the auctions midday.
NQ:
29220, overnight last sitting just under 29218 Friday VAL. Above reclaims 29218 then opens 29300 Friday POC into 29426 prev week POC and 29486 Friday high. Below 29220 fails through 29139 overnight POC into 29089 Friday low, then the 29005 prev week VAL / 28990 overnight low stack opens air to 28742 prev week low and 27622 prev month high. Sixteen straight up days unwound in one Globex, the digestion is still working through.
CL:
99.07 CLN26 overnight last after the Sunday spike to 104.37 puked back. Above 99 holds we target 100 round, 101.02 Friday close into 101.57 Friday high and 104.37 the rejected Sunday spike. Below 99 fails through 98.87 overnight low, 97.23 Friday low gives, then 96.50 put floor / 96.44 expected low stack opens the deeper test. The Sunday spike was a one-day premium the market sold.
GC:
4558, overnight last right at Friday POC 4559 after the prev week destruction. Above reclaims 4565 / 4571 Friday VAH and Friday high stack, then 4595 high-vol magnet opens 4615 Friday open and the deeper 4664 prev week VAL / 4696 month POC anchors. Below 4558 fails through 4533 overnight low into the 4513 Friday low / prev week low stack, then 4500 structural floor and 4450 April put floor catch the cascade. Prev month POC 4812 sits up in the air, yields are the trade.
The White Van Stuff
Yields up, dollar firm, oil vol bid hard on the Sunday-night spike-and-reject. The whole positioning cage rebuilt this weekend around the new oil shape and the post-Friday equity pullback. Watch the bands more than the levels today, implied ranges are wider than the structural cascade suggests.
ES sits 7420 on the pivot with the cage compressed. Same-day cap 7460 above, same-day floor 7400 below.
NQ parked 29220 right on the 29230 pivot. Same-day magnet 29490 well overhead, same-day floor 29000 sits 220 below as the gate.
CLN26 sits 99.07 mid-band. Vol bid to 72% from 54%, expected range 96.44 to 105.60, asymmetric upside risk into the rolled contract.
GC sits 4558 below the 4595 high-vol magnet and 4600 call ceiling stack. Lower band 4500 lines up with the 4513 prev week low gate.
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