NQ punched a fresh all-time high overnight at 27926.5 while ES sold its Globex gap and is sitting only $7 above Friday’s close. Crude cracked below Friday’s 99.30 in Globex, made a fresh swing low at 99.11, then ripped $3 back. Gold gave back the entire Friday afternoon bounce and is leaning on the 4597 low. Six up weeks behind us, Palantir on the tape after the close, NFP Friday. Four different stories running into Monday open. Not sure what we even do this week. But head on a swivel because it may get weird into the new month.
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Yesterday’s Sessions
ES Friday made a fresh record at 7301 then sold to 7255.50 and grinded back to settle 7257.50. POC printed 7273, value built 7265.25 to 7288.25. Inside-day character above the 7300 round number. Sellers were active up there. The 7301 print was the high of the rally and the close was 44 handles below it. That’s not a trend day, that’s an exhaustion print getting tested.
NQ broke to fresh all-time highs at 27917 and held. Closed 27837.25, POC 27880, value 27815 to 27898.75. The Friday low at 27617.75 sat right on April’s old high. Textbook breakout retest. Mag7 carrying the weight. Fifteen of sixteen sessions green now.
CL ranged 99.30 to 103.88 and settled 102.18 with POC 101.93. Friday dumped 3% off the Hormuz spike on ceasefire chatter. The week’s $13 round trip is the story. Anyone who got short crude into the Friday fade got tested overnight.
GC dragged from 4673.20 down to 4597.10 and bounced to 4623. POC 4650, value 4625.30 to 4667.60. The long crowd got their bounce off the week low. Three weeks of distribution still in the rearview, and the April peak at 4917 looks more like a lower-high vs the cycle than a fresh top.
The Overnight
ES opened Globex 7267.75, ran to 7274.50, then sold all the way through Friday’s low and printed 7213.75. That’s a $60 cascade off the highs and 42 handles below Friday’s 7255.50 floor. Buyers showed up at 7213 and reclaimed back into Friday’s value. Currently 7251 with today POC 7249, today VAH 7265, today VAL 7237, session VWAP 7250.40. The market gave both sides a punch and ended up right at unchanged.
NQ opened Globex 27938, extended to a fresh ATH at 27965.75, then collapsed 303 handles to 27662.25 before getting bought back. That’s a wide-range Globex that tested both extremes. The 27662 low sat $40 above the 27622 April high (the breakout retest line) and held. Currently 27850.50 right on today POC, today VAH 27910.50, today VAL 27807.50. Both extremes printed, both got rejected. Decision tape.
CL opened Globex 101.68, ripped to 107.46 (right back to last week’s Hormuz-spike zone), then puked $7 to 100.12. The headline tape lit up again and the same range structure that defined last week is alive into this week. Currently 102.08 with today POC at 100, today VAH 104.53, today VAL 99.71. Session VWAP 103.37 above price. Crude is doing what crude does.
GC opened Globex 4616, made 4624, then sold $89 to 4535. That’s a Friday-low break with conviction (4597.10 lost, 4565.60 magnet broken) and a test of the staircase down. Buyers showed at 4535 and reclaimed to 4580. Today POC 4575, today VAH 4617.70, today VAL 4560.40. The bear-case scenario we mapped Friday is now in motion. The 4522 week low / April low is the next line.
The Map
ES tested both sides overnight. The 7274.50 Globex high tagged Friday’s value zone from above and got rejected. The 7213.75 Globex low broke through Friday’s 7255.50 floor by 42 handles and got bought. Now we’re sitting at 7251 with today POC 7249 and session VWAP 7250.40 stacked at the same level. That’s a coiled tape between the breakout floor reclaim and the prior session’s value. Above 7257.50 (Friday close) and 7265 (today VAH) the trend has a chance to extend. Above 7274.50 the upside opens to 7300 and expected high 7323.74. Below 7237 (today VAL) the 7213.75 Globex low becomes the next test, then we’re trading air toward 7200 / 7192 expected low. The line in the sand is still 7160. Week POC, April POC, the level value spent the most time at all month.
NQ took out the Friday ATH overnight at 27965.75 AND tested 138 handles below the 27800 breakout floor at 27662.25 before getting bought. The 27662 print sat $40 above the 27622 April high (the breakout retest line) and held. Currently 27850 right on today POC, session VWAP 27846.68 right under price. The 27662 to 27965 Globex range gave the bulls and the bears each their look. Both got rejected. Above 27910 (today VAH) the trend re-extends and 27965 becomes the gate, then 28000 (structural call ceiling) and expected high 28172. Below 27807 (today VAL) we re-test the 27662 Globex low, then 27622 (Friday low / April high) is the line where the breakout actually fails. Below 27622 the path opens to 27500 (week POC = April POC = the structural floor).
Crude had another headline-driven $7 round trip overnight. Globex ripped to 107.46 (right into last week’s Hormuz cluster at 105 to 108) then puked back to 99.11 / 100.12 area, currently 102.08. Today POC 100 is the magnet. Today VAH 104.53 is where buyers gave up, today VAL 99.71 is where sellers gave up. The structural range 95.29 to 108.50 is unchanged and we’re trading the middle. Above 104.53 we head back to 106 / 107.46 spike zone where heavy interest stacks. Below 100 today POC and 99.71 today VAL the path to 95.29 (week low) opens fast and 89.70 (April POC, where crude actually lived all month) is in the conversation. Headline tape runs all week.
Gold lost the line. Friday’s 4597.10 low and the 4565.60 structural magnet both got broken in Globex on the way down to 4535. The bear scenario we mapped is in motion. Currently 4579.90 with today POC 4575, today VAH 4617.70, today VAL 4560.40, session VWAP 4590.12. The bounce off 4535 is sitting inside today’s value. Above 4597 (the broken Friday low) is the first reclaim test, then 4624 (Globex high) and 4644 (Globex open). Above 4673.20 (Friday high) the rebuilding gets serious. Below 4560 today VAL the 4535 Globex low is the next stop, then 4522.20 (week low / April low) is the line. Below 4522 the long crowd that’s been holding 153,000 net long for the geopolitical premium starts puking.
What I’m Watching
ES is the reclaim read. Globex broke Friday’s 7255.50 low and got bought at 7213.75. Now we’re sitting at 7251 with session VWAP and today POC stacked at the same level. Either ES holds 7237 (today VAL) and grinds back through 7257.50 / 7265 / 7274.50 toward 7300, or sellers come back and 7213.75 cracks for real with 7200 / 7192 expected low as the next staircase. The 7160 week POC stays the line. PLTR after the close starts the AI-tape conversation. NFP Friday is the override on the whole week.
NQ is whether 27662 was the real test or there’s a deeper flush. The bull-case is the breakout retest already happened in Globex and held. The bear-case is the bounce off 27662 was a relief and we re-test 27622 (April high / breakout line) into the close. Above 27910 today VAH and the trend resumes toward 27965 ATH, 28000 structural call ceiling, expected high 28172. Below 27807 today VAL and the 27662 Globex low is the next test, then 27622 is the line that says the breakout actually fails. PLTR AMC and AMD Tuesday AMC are the catalyst stack for the rest of the week. Mag7 is doing the work. Mag7 has to keep doing the work.
CL is its own animal again. Two $7 round trips in three sessions. Globex spike to 107.46 got sold immediately. Either the headline tape lights up again and we re-test 105 to 108 cluster, or the failed spike means the geopolitical bid is genuinely thinning and 100 round cracks for real. Today POC at 100 is the magnet. Above 104.53 today VAH and the 105 / 106 / 107.46 cluster comes back into play. Below 99.71 today VAL and the path to 95.29 week low opens, then 89.70 April POC. EIA Wednesday is the only scheduled event but the headline tape runs every day.
GC is whether 4522 holds. The line we identified Friday (4597.10) is broken. The magnet (4565.60) is broken. The 4535 Globex low held the bounce so far. Three weeks of distribution behind us. Either gold holds 4535 and we work back toward 4575 today POC and 4597 broken Friday low for a reclaim attempt, or 4522 (week low / April low) cracks and the long crowd holding 153,000 net long starts puking inventory. Below 4522 we’re in air. If equities rip into the open, gold stays heavy. If equities crack on a soft PLTR / AMD reaction, gold might find a bid.
The White Van Stuff
The white van had a busy night. ES same-day cap and call ceiling stack at 7300 with the 7275 nearby above interest acting as the immediate test. The 7245 to 7260 cluster (the band Friday’s whole session lived in) got its first real test from below at 7213.75 and the options crowd defended it. NQ saw the 27710 ceiling that lost the most positioning on the planet last week act as floor again. The 27662 Globex low sat $40 above the 27622 April high and got bought. Gamma stayed positive on both indices, call-dominated. Daily expected range plus or minus 65 on ES and plus or minus 340 on NQ. With Globex already covering 60 handles on ES and 303 on NQ, both indices have already used most of their daily range. PLTR after the close blows the NQ number up if it surprises either direction.
The 7240 to 7260 zone is where ES is trading right now and it’s the band where positioning is densest. The 7275 nearby above is the first test on a recovery, then 7300 today’s cap (and structural call ceiling, same level), then expected high 7323.74. The 7213.75 Globex low we already tested sat between today’s pivot 7240 and downside target 7200. Below 7200 the 7192.26 expected low and 7170 magnet open up. The standard 7000 floor is way down.
NQ printed the new ATH at 27965.75 above the 27900 heavy interest and just below the 28000 structural call ceiling. The 27800 today’s cap (the level that flipped to floor when NQ broke 27710) was tested and held. Globex low 27662 sat between 27700 and 27650. The 27500 today’s pivot is 350 handles below current price and stacks with expected low 27499. Today’s magnet 27440 just below that, and the structural floor 27400 (week POC / April POC) is the level that says the breakout actually fails.
The Globex spike to 107.46 sat right on the expected high 107.65 and got sold immediately. That’s the line that capped last week’s rally too. The 105 to 108 cluster is overhead supply now from the Hormuz-week build. Below price the 100 today’s put floor is the round number that’s defended every break, and the 96.23 expected low and 95 downside target are the real air pockets. The magnet at 88.25 is where crude lived all month before the geopolitical bid.
Gold cracked the 4585 today’s put floor in Globex and tested the 4535 downside target. The magnet 4565.60 is now broken structure. The bounce from 4535 is sitting inside today’s value. Today’s pivot at 4610 is the recovery test (above today VAH 4617.70). Above 4655 / 4675 / 4685 / 4695 expected high is where the structural rebuild starts. Below 4564 expected low and 4535 downside target the staircase runs to 4436 standard floor. The 4522 week low is where the entire setup gets decided.
The Calendar
- 7:00 AM CT, Total Vehicle Sales (April)
- 9:00 AM CT, Factory Orders (March)
- 11:50 AM CT, Fed Williams speech
- 1:00 PM CT, Senior Loan Officer Survey
- AMC, Palantir (PLTR) earnings
Light tape on the macro side. Williams is the only real Fed mover before the bell. PLTR after the close is the AI-tape tone setter.
What Could Go Wrong
ES fails to reclaim 7257.50 (Friday close) on the open and the 7213.75 Globex low cracks for real with sellers behind it. Below 7213 we’re trading air through 7200 / 7192 expected low to 7170 magnet, with the 7160 week POC / April POC line as the destination. The relief bounce off Globex lows turns into a one-day overshoot and the squeeze fuel that powered six up weeks runs out as NFP-week chop sets in.
NQ rolls from 27850 today POC into a soft PLTR after-hours read or a weak open and re-tests 27662 Globex low with conviction. Below 27622 (Friday low / April high) the breakout actually fails and 27500 today’s pivot / 27499 expected low / 27440 today’s magnet stack into a 200-handle air pocket down to 27400 (week POC / April POC). The breakout that printed Friday gets exposed as a single-day overshoot and the gap back into prior week’s value at 27046 / 27009 enters the conversation. Mag7 has been carrying the move. A Mag7 wobble cracks it.
Crude’s Globex spike-and-puke pattern continues all week and the headline tape stays loud. Either 100 today’s put floor cracks below 99 with sellers behind it and 95.29 / 89.70 (week low / April POC) opens up, or the 108 cap holds again on the next ceasefire-headline reversal. Gold’s 4522 week low cracks on a continued equity rip and the 153,000 net long crowd starts puking inventory. Below 4522 we’re in air through 4500 / 4480 / 4436 standard floor, and the geopolitical premium that built since the 4917 cycle peak fully unwinds.
The Plan
ES: Above 7257.50 (Friday close) and 7265 (today VAH) the reclaim has a chance with 7274.50 (Globex high) as the first test, then 7300 today’s cap and expected high 7323.74. Below 7237 (today VAL) the 7213.75 Globex low becomes the next test, then we’re trading air toward 7200 (downside target) and 7192 expected low, then 7170 (magnet) is where the air pocket opens. PLTR AMC tonight kicks off the AI tape for the week and NFP Friday is the override on every read. Don’t carry max longs into the close without a plan.
NQ: Above 27910 (today VAH) the trend resumes toward 27965 ATH, 28000 structural call ceiling, and expected high 28172. Hold 27807 today VAL keeps the breakout intact. Below 27807 the 27662 Globex low is the next test, then 27622 (Friday low / April high) is the breakout line. Lose 27622 and the rally has a real problem with 27500 / 27440 (today’s magnet) below, then 27400 (week POC / April POC) is the structural floor. AMD Tuesday AMC is the bigger NQ event but PLTR tonight tones the tape. Mag7 is doing the work.
CL: Above 104.53 (today VAH) we head back to 105.50 / 106 / 107.46 cluster where the Hormuz-spike interest stacks. Hold 100 today POC as the magnet keeps the range structure intact. Below 99.71 today VAL and 99.11 the path to 95.29 (week low) opens fast and 89.70 (April POC) is in the conversation. The Globex spike-and-puke is the setup. Headline tape all week, EIA Wednesday is the only scheduled event. Don’t fade a Globex extreme without a real signal.
GC: Above 4597 (broken Friday low) the reclaim attempt has a chance with 4624 (Globex high) and 4644 (Globex open) as the steps, then 4673.20 (Friday high) where the rebuilding gets serious. Hold 4535 (Globex low) keeps a bounce-from-low setup intact. Below 4535 the 4522.20 (week low / April low) line cracks and the long crowd holding 153,000 net long starts puking inventory. Below 4522 we’re in air. If equities keep ripping AND ceasefire holds, gold stays heavy. If equities crack on a soft PLTR or AMD print, gold might find a bid. Honest to god.
Last night was a party. We gave away some goodies. Laughed. Almost broke youtube and we’re doing it again next Sunday. I will figure out the “go live on substack thing”. If you missed it heres the link.
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