ES and NQ rolled to December over the weekend, so every number on your chart is new this morning and the tape gapped straight down through all of it anyway. NQ is where the damage is, out the bottom of last week’s entire range on the headlines about slowing the AI buildout, while ES only gave back last week’s value floor. Crude went the other way and cleared a ceiling it has been under for a week. I lean short NQ while 29352.50 caps it, and I want nothing to do with gold here.
The Tape
ES is 7673 on the December contract, under the 7677 print the night built and under 7699 where last week’s value began. The night opened 7680, ran 7701.25 into that broken value floor, and rolled straight back off it, so the only bounce this tape produced died on the level it lost. Friday’s entire session sits overhead from 7720.75 up, and 7730.25 is Friday’s print and last week’s on the same price, which is the number that actually matters if this thing turns. Take 7682.75 back and 7699 into 7701.25 is the gate, then 7720.75, the base of Friday’s session. Lose 7664.50 and 7661.25 the night’s low catches, then 7650.75, last week’s low, with nothing under it.
NQ is 29164.75 and it is the only one of the four trading under last week’s whole range, which is what the AI headlines were worth. The night opened 29381, never held a single push, and left its value floor at 29119.50 with the 29107.25 low under it. 29352.50 was last week’s floor and it is a ceiling now, so a bounce that stalls into it is sellers reloading where they already won. Take 29308.25 back and 29352.50 is the line that changes the read, with 29405 the night’s high behind it. Lose 29107.25 and the map is empty underneath, because December has not traded down there yet.
CL is 103.89 after running 104.95 in the dark, the first trade this contract has printed over last week’s 104.46 ceiling. The pit has held 103.84 to 104.55 since it opened, which is a market holding a gap rather than giving it back. Everything underneath is Friday’s work from 100.77 down to 100.08 and none of it has been touched since the weekend. Hold 103.54 and 104.46 into 104.55 is the gate, and over 104.95 there is no profile left at all. Lose 103.20 and 102.25 catches, the night’s open and its value floor on one price, then 101.59 the low.
GC is 4308 and it has already been to 4293 since the pit opened, which took out Friday’s low and last week’s on the same trip. Those two sit at 4332.70 and 4333, thirty cents apart, and gold held above them all night before losing the pair in the first ten minutes of the session. That shelf is the reclaim line now, and nothing about this chart gets interesting again until it trades back over it. Take 4327 back and 4330.60 the pit high comes first, then the 4332.70 to 4333 shelf with 4347.50 the session anchor over it. Lose 4293 and there is nothing structural until 4074, where August bottomed.
The Calendar
Monday, September 14 (all times CT):
- 10:30 Three and six month bill auctions
Light day, nothing on the tape that reaches the open. The rate decision Wednesday is the thing that overrides every read this week.
The Plan
ES:
7699 is last week’s value floor and ES lost it over the weekend, which makes it the whole trade on the long side. The night already ran 7701.25 and got rejected there, so a second attempt that stalls in the same place is the short, not the reclaim. Accept over that pair and 7720.75 where Friday bottomed opens 7726 and 7730.25, Friday’s print sitting on last week’s, the one price two different sessions agreed on. Under 7664.50 the read is short and 7661.25 the night’s low is the trigger, with 7650.75 last week’s low the only thing behind it. Below 7650.75 December has no profile at all.
NQ:
NQ has to take 29352.50 back, last week’s floor, before there is a long side to talk about, and it trades well under it. Clear that and 29405 the night’s high is next, then the gap is properly closed at 29626 where Friday bottomed. What argues against pressing it here is that 29119.50 and 29107.25 have already held once in the dark, so the low is not free. Lose 29107.25 and the next real volume this contract has built is 29677.75 in the other direction, which is another way of saying there is nothing below and the trade becomes a momentum trade, not a level trade.
CL:
Crude is the only one of the four with its structure underneath it instead of overhead, and 103.20 is the print the night built its whole value on. Hold that and 104.46 into 104.55 is the gate, last week’s ceiling with this morning’s pit high stacked on it, and over 104.95 the chart is in open air. The honest counter is that the pit has not been able to take 104.55 out in forty minutes of trying, so the buying is holding the gap rather than extending it. Lose 103.20 and 102.25 catches, where the night opened and built its value low, then 101.59 the overnight low. Under that the whole weekend gap fills back to 100.77 and 100.08, Friday’s high and its print.
GC:
Gold lost 4332.70 and 4333, Friday’s low and last week’s on the same shelf, in the first ten minutes the pit was open and has not been back. That pair is the entire reclaim case and 4327 the session print is the first thing in the way of it. Three weeks of selling with no bounce that held anything means the burden is on the buyers, and they have not shown up at a single level yet. Take 4327 and the 4332.70 to 4333 shelf and 4347.50, where the session has done its business, is the first real work, with 4364.70 August’s value floor over it. Lose 4293 and the next price this chart has any volume at is 4074.
The White Van Stuff
Three of the four traded out the bottom of their own books overnight and crude traded out the top of its. NQ is the extreme, under every single mark in its ladder with nothing but the 29000 floor left underneath it, and gold spent the pit hour below the bottom of the range it was supposed to hold all day. ES is sitting on its expected low to the tick, which is the only one of the four where the book and the tape still agree.
ES: ES is under 7675, the nearest mark over price, and sitting right on 7667.58, the bottom of the range the book gives it today. Everything that matters is overhead, with today’s cap at 7820 and the pivot up at 7740. Under price there is 7650 and then nothing until 7500. Price is 7673, on the expected low.
NQ: NQ has traded under every mark in this book, including 29342.65, which was supposed to be the low end of today’s range and is now overhead with everything else. Even 29300, where the book expects the day to turn, is overhead. The only thing underneath is the 29000 floor. Price is 29164.75, under the whole ladder.
CL: Crude cleared 100, the cap this book has carried for weeks, and has not looked at it since. It is pressing 103.93, the top of the range it was given for the day, with 105 the same-day lid over that. What the book called the turn price, 94.75, is a place crude left last week. Price is 103.89, under the 103.93.
GC: Gold is under 4327.11, the low end of the range the book gave it, and sitting on 4300, the floor for the day. Where the book wants this to settle, 4425 and 4450, is where gold traded last week and not since. Under 4300 there is 4280 and 4275 and then a very long way to 3900. Price is 4308, on the 4300 floor.
Leave the gun, take the cannoli.
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