Gm. The weekend did nothing for the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, so crude ran from Friday’s 92.24 close to 96.54 overnight and gold fell straight through the 4279.50 September low to 4172.70. Oil up and gold down on the same headline is the rate-hike trade, and it showed up before the coffee did. The indexes gave back all of Friday and then just stood there. I don’t have a strong read on ES or NQ, so it’s reaction spots only, light and tight Today. Just pretend bonds don't exist. They will matter when they matter.
The Tape
ES is 7766.75, sitting on 7769, the overnight POC, with 7763.25, the floor of August’s value, right under it and nothing decided in between. The night sold Friday’s 7804.50 close all the way to 7757, so Friday’s entire value from 7779 to 7812.75 is overhead and everybody who bought it is underwater. It is still inside what last week built and a few ticks under 7771.50, last week’s POC, so for now this is a pullback that hasn’t broken anything. Take 7771.50 back and 7778.25 to 7779 is the next shelf, the overnight VAH on Friday’s VAL, with 7803.50, the POC Friday closed on, behind it. Lose 7757 and Friday’s 7752.75 low goes with it into 7749.25, the bottom of last week’s value, then 7711.50 where September did its business.
