The Game Plan: Thursday, April 16, 2026

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****UPDATE**** I noticed a bug in my tables that were rendering incorrectly. It was lumping RTH and Globex together and throwing off data. Fixed now and accurate****

Ten sessions straight up. ES broke 7000, held it, and closed at new all-time highs. NQ continues to launch so much out of orbit that it would make Artemis II jealous. You keep trying to step in front of a freight train, you’re going to have a bad time. At some point, this has to breathe. If you’ve watched me trade price discovery sessions at new all-time highs, you know it’s not my favorite tape to trade. My plan Today is to be patient and not look to catch a massive move. If you’ve been reading these or watching me on Ninjatrader Live, you know I’ve been bullish since NQ 23,000. Today is not the day I’m calling that top, but I’m also not trying to be the first moron to say it’s time to sell it. It can get even more silly. Trust me.

Yesterday’s Sessions

ES opened at 7014.25 and trended higher all session, closing at 7060.00. Yesterday’s POC landed at 7060.50, value area 7028.00-7064.25. The heavy volume was right at the close. Day type was a trend day up. The profile stacked everything at the top of the range. Value migrated 250 handles from Monday’s open at 6835.

NQ opened at 26023 and trended to 26378 before settling at 26364. Yesterday’s POC at 26200, value area 26035-26260. The POC sitting 164 points below the close means the heaviest volume built in the first half of the session. Value is trailing price higher. That’s what a trend day looks like when the buyers aren’t giving anything back.

CL opened at 91.97, tested 92.93, sold off to 90.40, and closed at 90.99. Yesterday’s POC at 91.30, value area 90.76-92.13. Crude tested the upside and failed. Closed below the open. The Iran talks are back on the table. Every positive headline takes a dollar off. Every escalation puts two back on.

GC opened at 4836, rallied to 4854, then pulled back to close at 4818. Yesterday’s POC at 4844, value area 4821-4845. Gold tried the upside and gave it all back. The POC sitting 26 points above the close means buyers showed up midday and then left.

The Overnight

ES opened Globex at 7071.50 and pushed to 7078.50 before pulling back to 7059 and sitting at 7072. Session POC at 7070, value at 7065-7074. Price is above yesterday’s VAH at 7064. The overnight accepted higher. Session VWAP at 7068.

NQ opened at 26435, pushed to 26488, and is sitting at 26440. Session POC at 26450, value at 26373-26455. NQ made new highs overnight and is building value above yesterday’s RTH high at 26378.

CL opened at 91.75, pushed to 93.00, and is sitting at 92.21. That’s a $2 bounce off yesterday’s 90.40 low. Session POC at 91.60, value at 91.35-92.57. Crude is attempting a recovery.

GC opened at 4855, tested 4861 early, and pulled back to 4840. Session POC at 4845, value at 4836-4852. Gold is back inside yesterday’s value area. Normal rotation.

The Map

ES building volume at 7065-7074 overnight. Yesterday’s POC and the week POC both sitting at 7060-7061. Two sessions of POC agreement. The overnight accepted above yesterday’s VAH at 7064. Below 7060, the next volume is at 7028 (yesterday’s VAL). Below that, 6903 (week VAL) is a long way down.

NQ building value at 26400-26455. Yesterday’s POC at 26200 is 240 points below the overnight. The gap between yesterday’s VAH at 26260 and the overnight low at 26365 is 100 points of air. If NQ loses 26365, there’s nothing until 26260.

CL trying to reclaim yesterday’s VAH at 92.13. If crude holds above 91.30 (yesterday’s POC), the path is 92.13, 93.00 (overnight high), then the gap to 98 (prev week POC). Below 90.76 (yesterday’s VAL), 90.40 is the floor.

GC sitting at session POC 4845, right on yesterday’s POC at 4844. Two sessions of POC agreement at 4844-4845. That’s where gold had a conversation and made a decision.

What I’m Watching

ES: Does 7060 hold as support? That’s yesterday’s POC and the week POC. If ES holds above it and stays above 7064 (yesterday’s VAH), the breakout is still alive. Above 7079 (overnight high) and there’s open space. Below 7060, the next real volume is 7028 (yesterday’s VAL). Below 7028, there’s a low volume gap to 6903 (week VAL).

NQ: Building value at 26400-26450. If NQ holds above 26365 (overnight low) and clears 26488 (overnight high), the 26500 round number is next. Below 26365, the gap to 26260 (yesterday’s VAH) is 100 points of nothing.

CL: The bounce from 90.40 to 93.00 overnight is telling. If crude holds above 91.30 and reclaims 92.13, the recovery trade is on. Claims and industrial production already hit. Iran headlines override everything.

GC: Double POC agreement at 4844-4845. Gold needs to pick a direction. Above 4852 (session VAH) and the 4870 (week VAH) is the target. Below 4836 (session VAL), 4821 (yesterday’s VAL) is the first pullback, then 4766 (week VAL).

The White Van Stuff

The options positioning on equities keeps repricing higher. The call ceiling at 7100 ES is the new cluster where sellers are stacked. The old ceiling at 7000 got broken and the interest that was sitting there is either rolling higher or getting covered. Heavy interest at 7050, 7075, and 7125 on the upside. The 7020 area is the same-day cap. The 6950 area is the same-day downside floor.

NQ: The call ceiling at 26000 is 400 points below current price. That positioning is dead. Expected range 26049-26682. Same-day cap at 26050, same-day floor at 25970. The top interest cluster is at 26500 with additional clusters at 26300 and 26250 above. NQ has run through the options structure and is trading in open space.

CL: Expected range 86.78-95.80. That’s a 9-point range. The 30-day volatility is near 78%. The options ceiling is at 89.50 which is below current price at 92.76. The options data is repricing crude structurally lower. The floor at 90 lines up with where the session is building value. Heavy interest clusters at 95, 94.50, and 92 on the upside. 88 and 85 on the downside.

GC: Expected range 4747-4900. Same-day cap at 4900, same-day floor at 4800. Interest clusters at 4885, 4865, and 4850 above current price. Below, 4750 and 4725 are the downside targets. If gold pushes above 4900, the 5000 call ceiling matters.

The Calendar

- Jobless Claims, 7:30 AM CT

- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (April), 7:30 AM CT

- Continuing Jobless Claims, 7:30 AM CT

- Industrial Production (March), 8:15 AM CT

- Capacity Utilization (March), 8:15 AM CT

Baker Hughes rig count tomorrow. Claims and Philly Fed at 7:30 set the tone. Industrial production at 8:15 could affect the crude demand read.

Crude and Gold

CL bounced $3.50 off the 89.23 settlement low to trade 92.76 overnight. That’s the biggest overnight bounce since the crash started. Two sessions of POC at 91. If the shelf holds, the recovery targets are 92.32 (yesterday’s VAH), 93.30 (Tuesday’s high), then 96-98 where the old value sat. If 90.52 breaks, the 89.72 week VAL and 87 (Tuesday’s crash low) are exposed. Iran talks are the catalyst both ways. Every headline about “restarting negotiations” puts a floor under crude. Every escalation pulls it out.

GC is finding value at 4844-4845 with triple POC agreement. Yesterday pushed to 4860 and pulled back. The week high at 4895 is the upside target. If gold holds above 4840, the path is 4856, 4877 (week VAH), 4895. Below 4814, the month POC at 4735 is a long way down. Gold and equities are both up. When that divergence resolves, something has to give.

What Could Go Wrong

ES 7055 breaks. Ten sessions straight up, no real pullback. If the overnight low breaks with sellers behind it, there’s air to 7005 (week POC). Below 7005, 6967 (March POC) and 6900 (week VAL). Price is sitting at the monthly VWAP +2 standard deviation band. Extended moves snap back hard.

NQ 26390 breaks. The low volume node at 26460 means there’s not much support between 26390 and 26340 (yesterday’s open). Below 26340, the gap to 25995 (week POC) is 345 points of air.

CL loses the 91 shelf. Two sessions of POC here and the overnight bounced. If 90.52 breaks, the week VAL at 89.72 and the crash low at 86.96 are the targets. The options data is already pricing crude at 89.50. If price agrees, it goes fast.

The Plan

ES: If ES holds 7055 and builds above 7078, targets are 7100, 7125. If 7055 breaks, it’s 7005, 6967, 6900. The monthly VWAP +2 band at 7073 is the line.

NQ: If NQ holds 26390 and clears 26488, targets are 26500, 26682. If 26390 fails, 26340, 25995.

CL: If CL holds 91 and reclaims 92.32, path is 93.30, 96, 98. If 90.52 breaks, 89.72, 86.96. Iran headlines decide.

GC: If GC holds 4840 and clears 4856, targets are 4877, 4895, 4900. If 4840 breaks, 4814, 4735.

Just have fun out there. Trade what’s in front of you.

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Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.

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