Late start for me this morning. Fresh all-time highs yesterday in both indices and overnight finally gave us a pullback. Crude tried to print a handle with a one on it, ripped to 95.64 on Iran noise, then gave every penny back inside a couple hours. Equities sold off into 7125 and the air got thin, then buyers showed up exactly where they should have. If the overnight fade is already dead, yesterday's POC holds and we take another run at the highs. If it's the start of a real rotation, there's a gap between 7125 and 7085 where nobody lives. We'll see. Sellers let me down trying a few shorts. I have given up on them.
Yesterday’s Sessions
ES opened 7150.25, drove into 7173 by midday, and closed 7170.25. Volume built right at 7157.75 POC with value 7150.25 to 7163. Classic balance day on the highs. Close inside value, no rejection.
NQ opened 26881, ripped to 27093 on the same bid, closed 27079.50. POC built at 26990, value 26944.75 to 27059. Same story as ES. Fresh highs, build at the high, close there.
CL opened 91.42, printed 93.72 high, 90.43 low, closed 92.61. POC at 93 with value 91.69 to 93.64. The week’s range is 85.44 to 93.72 and every upside push into the 93s has been a reject. Right on schedule.
GC opened 4766, high 4779.50, low 4742.10, closed 4759.40. POC 4755, value 4748.80 to 4766.70. Tight rotation on tight volume. Gold keeps doing gold things.
The Overnight
ES traded 7135.25 to 7169.50 in Globex with a push down to 7125.75 before buyers stepped in. Sitting 7157 now, right on yesterday’s POC. We’re exactly where we started if you squint. Value held.
NQ ran 26956 to 27079.75 early, dumped to 26890 on the same tape, and is back at 27037. Also sitting on yesterday’s POC. Inside value.
CL is where the action was. 94.07 open, ripped to 95.64 on the Iran headlines, then absolutely gave it back to 92.30. Sitting 92.79. The 95 handle keeps getting rejected. Different day, same trade.
GC went 4719.60 to 4759.50 to 4700, sits 4756. Nothing to call out. Inside yesterday’s range and on yesterday’s POC.
The Map
ES: current 7157, sitting right on yesterday’s POC after the overnight dip got bought.
7157.75 is the line. Everything built there yesterday and price is sitting right on it this morning. Above 7163 (yesterday VAH and week VAH right on top of each other) the path opens back up to yesterday’s high at 7173 and last week’s high at 7185.75. Lose 7150.25 and the next real shelf is 7125 where week VAL and overnight low stack.
NQ: current 27037, on yesterday’s POC, inside value.
Price at 26990 POC. Above 27059 VAH, the cluster at 27079-27093 is the fresh-ATH zone. Lose 26944 VAL and the line is 26890 overnight low. Below 26890 it thins out fast to 26853 week VAH then 26730 week POC.
CL: current 92.79, back below yesterday’s POC after the 95.64 head-fake and give-back.
The overnight 95.64 print is dead. Yesterday’s POC at 93 is the line price keeps returning to. Above 93.64 VAH we get another shot at 95. Lose 91.69 VAL and the next real support isn’t until 89.70 week POC where the volume actually sits.
GC: current 4756, on the week POC and yesterday’s POC at the same number.
4755 is where yesterday and the week both built. Price is right on it. Between 4742 and 4779 is the rotation zone. Lose 4700 and we test the week low at 4685. No strong lean inside the range. Your bet’s as good as mine on gold today.
What I’m Watching
ES. Two things. Does 7125.25 hold if it gets tested? That’s where week VAL and overnight low stack. Buyers showed up there once overnight. If they show up again, the upside is wide open back to 7163 and 7173. The other: above 7173, does 7185.75 (last week’s high) stop this train? If that breaks with volume, there’s basically no structural resistance until the 0DTE same-day cap around 7200.
NQ. Same question. Does 26890 hold? Below it the tape thins out to the week’s POC at 26730, and that’s a 150-point air gap. Above 27093 fresh all-time highs are on the menu with the 0DTE cap at 27150 as the next check.
CL. 95.64 is the ceiling until proven otherwise. 91.69 is the line. Between them, chop and fade. Below 91.69 and we test the week’s POC at 89.70 where the actual volume lives. That’s been the magnet all week.
GC. Range trade between 4700 and 4780. Buy the low of that range, sell the high, don’t be a hero in the middle. Or skip and wait for a break either way.
The White Van Stuff
ES. The same-day cap is stacked at 7200, matching the standard call ceiling. Heavy interest below price at 7150 and stacking above at 7175, 7180, 7190. Today’s range is priced 7104 to 7238. The same-day put floor is at 7075 which is almost exactly where the week’s VP gap would land us. If 7125 gives in the cash session, 7075 is where the options data says the floor should show up.
NQ. Same-day cap at 27150 and that’s the next real ceiling above yesterday’s high. Today’s expected range is 26746 to 27419. Same-day put floor at 26700 sits right under the overnight low. If 26890 gives, 26700 is the next real support.
CL. Same-day cap at 94 with today’s magnet at 93. The cap lined up exactly with where price rejected overnight. Today’s range is priced 87.93 to 97.99. Standard floor is way down at 85. Below yesterday’s VAL at 91.69, the same-day put floor at 87.50 is in play.
GC. Same-day cap at 4773 matches the call ceiling almost exactly at 4783. Today’s magnet is 4738. Expected range 4668 to 4804. Same-day put floor sits at 4728, right between yesterday POC and yesterday VAL. Gold is pinned.
The Calendar
Thursday, April 23:
- Jobless Claims, 7:30 AM CT
- Chicago Fed National Activity, 7:30 AM CT
- S&P Global PMI Flash (Manufacturing, Services, Composite), 8:45 AM CT
- EIA Natural Gas Stocks, 9:30 AM CT
- Kansas Fed Composite, 10:00 AM CT
PMI Flash at 8:45 is the one that can move the tape.
What Could Go Wrong
ES loses 7125.25 with sellers behind it. Week VAL and overnight low are stacked there. Below, the tape is empty to 7089 prev week VAH, 7085 week low, then 7060.50 prev week POC where the real volume lives.
NQ fails 26890. Below the overnight low there’s a 150-point air gap to 26853 week VAH and 26730 week POC. If ES and NQ both roll at the same time, that gap fills fast.
CL breaks 90.43 yesterday low. Opens the door to 89.70 where the week’s real volume sits and has been the magnet all week.
The Plan
ES: 7157 sits right on yesterday’s POC. Hold it and upside runs 7163 VAH cluster, 7173 yesterday’s high, 7185.75 prev week high. Lose 7150.25 and the next step is 7140.75 (yesterday low). If 7125.25 gives, it’s air to 7089, 7085, 7060.50.
NQ: 27037 on yesterday’s POC. Hold 26990 and upside is 27059 VAH, 27079 prev day close, 27093 yesterday high, then fresh ATHs. Lose 26944 VAL and 26890 overnight low is the line. Below 26890 there’s a gap to 26853.75 (week VAH), 26730 (week POC), 26597.25 (week VAL).
CL: Hold 92.30 overnight low and the rotation back to 93 POC and 93.64 VAH is on. Above 93.72 and the bulls get another shot at 95. Lose 91.69 VAL and yesterday’s low at 90.43 is next. Below 90.43 the road opens to 89.70 (week POC) and 85.53 (week VAL).
GC: 4756 between yesterday POC 4755 and VAH 4766.70. Hold 4742.10 and the upside is 4759.40, 4766.70, 4779.50. Lose 4742 and it’s 4712.80 (week POC) then 4700 (overnight low). Below 4700 there’s 4685.90.
Trust your prep. Trade your levels. The rest is noise. Likely we continue to chop higher so be safe out there.
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Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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