The Game Plan: Thursday, April 9, 2026
Is this "ceasefire" in the room with us?
Yesterday’s Sessions
ES gave back some of Tuesday’s ceasefire rally but held structure. Opened 6824, traded a tight 57-point range (6780-6837), and settled at 6824. Volume built right at 6816, which was Tuesday’s POC. That’s the market saying “this is where we agree for now.” Not a trend day, not a reversal. Just digestion after a 140-point overnight rip.
NQ had a wider session (24927-25250) but the close at 25080 was basically unchanged from the open. POC at 25080 means volume concentrated right where it opened. NQ is still inside the ceasefire gap from Monday night but hasn’t made a decision yet. Above 25250 and the gap is real. Below 24927 and it’s fading.
CL was the most interesting chart yesterday. The overnight crash from 115 to 91 repriced the entire Iran conflict premium in one candle, and RTH built a POC at 95.00 with a range of 92-97. That 92-97 zone is the new range until the dust settles. Crude closed at 96 and is already trading back toward 99 in tonight’s Globex.
GC dropped from 4834 to 4721 during RTH, closing at 4755 with POC at 4807. Gold is still trying to figure out if the ceasefire is good for risk (bearish gold) or good for rate-cut expectations (bullish gold). The 4720-4834 range is the new playground.
The Overnight
ES opened Globex at 6814 and has been chopping in a tight 30-point range (6793-6823). Overnight POC at 6811. Trading right at yesterday’s POC of 6816. This is the kind of overnight that tells you nothing has changed. The market is waiting for data.
NQ opened at 25038 and dipped to 24953 before recovering to 25043. Overnight POC at 25030, sitting below yesterday’s POC of 25080. Slightly softer but not breaking.
CL is the mover tonight. Opened at 96.78 and pushed up to 99.70 before settling at 98.86. Overnight POC at 97.40. Crude is testing the top of the new range already. Headlines still running.
GC opened at 4745 and traded down to 4719 before recovering to 4772. Overnight POC at 4737. Still below yesterday’s value.
The Calendar
Tomorrow (Friday) has CPI. This is a loaded two-day stretch. Honest to god, today is the day the prints drop. Size down into 12:30 and let the data tell you what to do. Don’t front-run PCE.
The Map
ES / NQ
LEVEL PRICE
Overnight high 6823.25
Yesterday high 6836.75
Yesterday POC 6816.00
Overnight POC 6811.00
Overnight VAH 6815.25
Session VWAP 6808.00
Overnight VAL 6798.75
Overnight low 6792.50
Yesterday low 6780.00
Week VAL 6627.50
LEVEL PRICE
Yesterday high 25249.75
Yesterday POC 25080.00
Overnight high 25064.75
Overnight POC 25030.00
Overnight VAH 25041.00
Overnight VAL 24993.50
Yesterday low 24926.75
Overnight low 24952.75
Week VAL 24228.50
ES is compressed between yesterday’s POC at 6816 and overnight low at 6793. That’s a 23-point decision zone. NQ is slightly below yesterday’s POC of 25080, trading around 25030-25040. Both are waiting for PCE.
CL / GC
LEVEL PRICE
Overnight high 99.70
Overnight VAH 98.37
Overnight POC 97.40
Yesterday close 96.09
Overnight VAL 96.50
Overnight low 96.23
Yesterday POC 95.00
Yesterday low 91.84
LEVEL PRICE
Yesterday POC 4806.80
Prev month POC 4620.00
Overnight high 4785.00
Yesterday close 4755.30
Overnight VAH 4754.40
Overnight POC 4737.00
Overnight VAL 4729.80
Overnight low 4718.50
CL is pushing higher overnight, already testing 99.70. The 100 level is the next test. If it gets above 100 and holds, the market is telling you the ceasefire premium isn’t fully out. GC is heavy, building volume at 4737 and struggling to hold 4750.
What I’m Watching
ES: 6816 is the pivot. Above it, we hold yesterday’s value and the digestion continues. Below it, the overnight low at 6793 is the next test. If 6793 breaks, the 6750 area is where the options crowd has interest. No strong lean pre-PCE. Flat until the print.
NQ: 25080 is yesterday’s POC and the over/under. Trading below it at 25040. If PCE comes in soft, 25250 (yesterday’s high) is the first target. 24960 (overnight low area) is first, then 24750 where options interest is heavy.
CL: This is the one to watch today. Already pressing 99. If it breaks 100 and holds, that’s a signal the ceasefire isn’t sticking as well as equities want it to. If it fails at 100 and drops back to 97, the new range (95-100) is confirmed. Don’t be a hero in crude today. It’s still repricing.
GC: Gold is stuck. 4737 overnight POC is the anchor. Above 4750 it has a shot at yesterday’s value. Below 4720 it’s in trouble. Size down in gold until the PCE print.
The White Van Stuff
Options positioning on ES has heavy interest at 6900 on the call side and 6500 on the put side. The expected move for today is roughly 70 points in either direction from 6824 (6753-6895). The 6850 area has the most concentrated options interest. ES is in a positive environment which means the options crowd expects stability, not chaos. Sizing can be normal.
NQ has options interest stacked at 25500 calls and 25020 puts. The same-day put interest sits right at 25020, which lines up almost perfectly with the overnight value area low. If NQ breaks 25020, that’s where it gets interesting.
CL options show heavy interest at 100 calls and 90 puts. The expected daily range is 88-100. That’s a 12-dollar range, which tells you the options crowd is pricing in serious movement. Gold has calls at 5000 (miles away) and puts at 4400 (also miles away). The same-day put interest is at 4700.
VIX at 25.78. Elevated but not panic. Size accordingly.
Crude and Gold
Crude is the trade today. The ceasefire repriced CL from 115 to 91 in one candle. Now it’s crawling back toward 100. The question: is the war premium fully removed at 95, or does the market need to see the ceasefire actually hold for a week before it believes? Tonight’s push to 99.70 suggests some doubt. If crude breaks 100, the ceasefire narrative is losing credibility. If it fails at 100, the 95-100 range becomes the new home. Don’t be a hero. This thing can move 5 dollars in an hour.
Gold is the coin flip. The ceasefire should be bearish gold (risk-on = sell safe havens) but rate-cut expectations should be bullish gold (if the ceasefire eases inflation, the Fed can cut sooner). Those two forces are fighting right now. GC is sitting at 4737 overnight POC, below yesterday’s 4807 POC. The trend from last month’s highs near 5472 is broken. Until gold reclaims 4800, I’m not interested.
What Could Go Wrong
1. ES breaks 6793 (overnight low): opens up a 40-point air pocket to 6750. That’s where the week gets interesting on the downside.
2. NQ loses 24950: below that is the week’s value area low at 24228. Wide gap. The ceasefire rally unwind accelerates.
3. CL breaks 100 and holds: means the Iran premium isn’t out and the equity rally built on “ceasefire” starts to crack.
The Plan
Flat into PCE at 7:30. If ES holds 6800 after the print, look for longs toward 6850. If it breaks 6793, step aside and let it find a buyer.
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