The Tape
ES opened 7791.75 Wednesday, printed 7794 and spent the session giving it back into a 7769.75 close, leaving a 7773.25 POC and value from 7766.50 to 7776.25. The overnight opened 7770, put its 7764.25 low in early and then built the entire night back up, value 7774.50 to 7787.50 on a 7784.25 print. It trades 7787.25, above everything Wednesday built. Hold 7774.50 and 7787.50 where the overnight value topped out and 7790.25 its high come first, then 7793.50 August’s ceiling and 7794 the high Wednesday made. Lose 7774.50 and 7773.25 Wednesday’s POC catches, then 7766.50 where its value began and 7764.25 where the night bottomed.
NQ opened 29991.25 Wednesday, printed 30001.50, and sold the rest of the day into a 29852.75 close that finished under its own 29859.25 value low with the POC stranded at 29907. The overnight opened 29826, took 29780.50 out underneath it, then spent the night climbing back with value 29831 to 29883.25 on a 29872 print. It trades 29872, back inside the bottom of Wednesday’s value and nowhere near the POC it abandoned. Hold 29831 and 29883.25 the top of the overnight value and 29907 Wednesday’s POC are the work, then 29923.25 its value high with 29924 the high of the night sitting on it. Lose 29831 and 29818.50 Wednesday’s low catches, then 29780.50 the overnight low, with 29750 this week’s POC and 29738.20 its value low under them.
CL opened 83.01 Wednesday, ran 83.47 and closed right back at 83.01 with its POC on the same number and value from 82.80 to 83.26. The overnight opened 82.70 under all of it, tried 83.30 once, then fell out of the bottom, printing 81.08 and building value 81.23 to 82.27 on an 81.55 POC. It trades 81.25, under the 81.46 floor of the week and the only one of the four sitting below a level with real meaning behind it. Hold 81.23 and 81.46 the week’s floor and 81.55 the print are the first job, then 82.27 the overnight ceiling and 82.80 where Wednesday’s value began. Lose 81.08 and there is nothing structural until 80.84 August’s ceiling, then 78.73 last week’s and 77.32 July’s floor.
GC opened 4467.80 Wednesday, ran 4502.40, and closed 4473.90 on a 4490 POC with value from 4471.60 to 4495.20. The overnight took the month out at 4509.10, then reversed the whole way to 4420.30 and rebuilt its value down low, 4425.10 to 4465.90 on a 4460.70 print. It trades 4456.20, under Wednesday’s value entirely and under the 4469.60 ceiling this week built. Hold 4425.10 and 4465.90 the top of the night’s value and 4469.60 the week’s are the work, then 4471.60 where Wednesday’s value starts and 4490 its POC. Lose 4425.10 and 4420.30 the overnight low is the gate to 4382 the POC August built, with 4381.80 its value low underneath.
The Calendar
Thursday, August 13 (all times CT):
- 7:15 Fed speaker
- 7:30 Producer price index for July, headline and core, with weekly jobless claims alongside it. Already out.
- 7:40 Another speaker
- 9:30 Weekly natural gas storage
- 12:00 Thirty year bond auction
The price number is already on the tape and the auction at noon is the only thing left that reaches the long end.
The Plan
ES:
7774.50 is where the overnight built the base of its value and that is the number ES has to keep. Above it 7787.50 the overnight ceiling and 7790.25 its high are the first work, then 7793.50 August’s ceiling and 7794 the high Wednesday printed. Clear that pair and 7798 the week’s high is all that is left under 7819.25 last week’s ceiling and 7820.25, the highest trade of the month. Lose 7774.50 and 7773.25 Wednesday’s POC catches first, then 7766.50 where its value began and 7764.75 the floor of the week sitting on 7764.25, the low of the night. Under that shelf 7756.50 Wednesday’s low is the gate to 7738 the week’s low and 7733 August’s floor, with 7719 last week’s value low opening the air down to 7611 July’s ceiling.
NQ:
29859.25 is the value low Wednesday closed underneath and NQ has taken it back trading 29872. Hold it and 29883.25 the overnight ceiling is the first mark, then 29907 the POC Wednesday stranded and 29923.25 its value high with 29924 the high of the night stacked on it. Clear that cluster and 29933.20 August’s ceiling comes before 30001.50, the print that failed yesterday, with 30015.20 last week’s ceiling above it. Lose 29859.25 and 29831 the overnight value low catches, then 29818.50 Wednesday’s low and 29780.50 where the night bottomed. Under those 29750 this week’s POC and 29738.20 its value low are the gate to 29600 July’s POC and 29520 where last week did its business.
CL:
81.46 is the floor of the week’s value and crude trades 81.25 underneath it, the one chart that gave up a level with meaning behind it overnight. Reclaim 81.46 and 81.55 the overnight print is the gate, then 82.27 its ceiling and 82.40 Wednesday’s low with 82.80 where Wednesday’s value began above them. Clear those and 83.00 the POC and 83.26 its ceiling sit under 83.47, the high Wednesday made, with 84.13 the week’s ceiling over that. Lose 81.23 and 81.08 the low of the night opens 80.84 August’s ceiling, and there is nothing structural under it until 78.73 last week’s. Below that 77.32 July’s floor and 77.07 the low of the week sit right on 76, the POC both August and last week built.
GC:
4469.60 is the ceiling this week built and gold sits 4456.20 under it after running the month’s high overnight and handing all of it back. Reclaim 4469.60 and 4471.60 where Wednesday’s value starts is the gate, then 4490 its POC and 4495.20 its ceiling with 4499.30 August’s above them. Clear those and 4502.40 Wednesday’s high and 4509.10, the highest trade this month has seen, are what is left. Lose 4460.70 the print and 4432.30 last week’s ceiling catches, then 4425.10 the overnight value low and 4420.30 its low. Under that pair 4382 the POC August built sits on 4381.80 its value low, with 4373.90 the low of the week and 4301 last week’s POC beneath them, and nothing structural under that until 4175.30 July’s ceiling.
The White Van Stuff
Positioning on the equity side is about as stacked as it gets, which is why both index cages sat still overnight while the two commodities did all the traveling. The crude book is heavy too and its floor for the day moved up to 82, the one level it has already lost. Gold’s book is the loosest of the four and it has the widest band to prove it.
ES: ES cleared 7770, the pivot for the day, and is working into 7800 where the cap and the same-day lid sit on the same number. 7826.97 is where the band ends above that. Price is 7787.25, through the 7780 and under the cap.
NQ: NQ is back over 29790, the pivot and the magnet on the same number, after losing it yesterday. 29900 is the next mark with 29975 the same-day lid and 30000 the cap behind it. Price is 29872, under the 29900.
CL: Crude lost 82, which was both the same-day floor and the magnet, and it kept going. 81.50 and 81 are the two marks under price now with 80 the next one and 79.98 the bottom of the band sitting right on it. Price is 81.25, between the 81.50 and the 81.
GC: Gold ran 4509.10 overnight, straight through the 4510 cap, and came all the way back inside its band. 4450 is the heaviest mark under price with 4405.14 the bottom of the day’s range beneath it. Price is 4456.20, back between the 4450 and the 4460.
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