A chip company said its sales will be fine as if my GPU acquisitions were any indication… and both indexes spent the night taking back everything this week cost them. NQ ran 29661.75 and stopped cold on 29600. That is last week’s POC and July’s POC on the same number, which is a hell of a place to run out of gas. I lean long while 29504 holds. Crude and gold slept through all of it. Oh and finally, to my Vibe Lounge family in discord..
The Tape
ES opened 7678.75 Wednesday, spent the whole day inside a 7671 to 7705.75 box and closed 7692.25 on a 7690 print with value from 7681.75 to 7696.50. The overnight opened 7722, dipped 7706.75 once, built 7718.25 to 7734.50 on a 7726 print and ran 7741.25 for the high of the week. It trades 7711.75, out the bottom of that value and back inside Wednesday’s range. It took the week’s high, printed there exactly once and has already handed back every bit of the night’s work, so this is a pop that has not stuck. Reclaim 7726, the print it built on, and 7734.50 is the first work, then 7741.25 with 7744 last week’s ceiling stacked over it; give up 7718.25 and the night’s low at 7706.75 opens 7696.50 Wednesday’s ceiling with 7693 August’s value low under it.
NQ opened 29174.50 Wednesday, ran 29368.50 and closed 29297.75 on a 29280 print with value from 29207.75 to 29307. The overnight opened 29499.50 already above Wednesday’s high, built 29504 to 29634.25 on a 29619.75 print and tagged 29661.75, the highest trade the week has seen. It trades 29528.75, under 29600, and that number is last week’s POC and July’s POC printing on the same price. When two separate months leave their heaviest volume on one tick that is not a coincidence, and the night walked straight up to it and quit, but what I do not have is the volume following it because the whole cage got built underneath at 29504. Take 29600 back and 29634.25 is the job with 29661.75 over it; under 29504 the low of the night at 29402.50 opens 29368.50 Wednesday’s high and 29307 its ceiling.
CL opened 80.66 Wednesday, ran 83.30 and gave it all back into an 81.93 close with the print up at 82.24 and value from 81.26 to 82.80. Ugly session. The overnight sold right back to 80.66, the exact Wednesday open, then climbed all night to 82.81 and built 81.44 to 82.43 on an 81.55 print. It trades 82.67, through the week’s 82.34 print, and two nights running crude round-tripped this same range and gave it all back while this one has held onto it, which is the difference between repair and somebody actually wanting the price. Stay over 82.43 and 82.81 is the gate to 82.80 Wednesday’s ceiling and 83.30; drop 82.24 the print and 81.55 is next, then 81.44 and 81.26 where Wednesday’s value began.
GC opened 4685 Wednesday, could not hold any of it and closed 4648.90 near the bottom of a 4638.20 to 4690 day with the print stranded up at 4653.20. Weak close. The overnight ran 4697.70 back into the week’s value, dumped to 4618.90 and rebuilt down low, value 4646.40 to 4685 on a 4650 print. That break took out 4638.20, Wednesday’s low and the lowest the week had traded, and bought every bit of it back before the pit ever saw it, which is a failed breakdown. It trades 4639.70, already under that floor and under 4644.40 where Wednesday’s value began; take 4646.40 back and 4653.20 Wednesday’s print is where it starts, then 4666.50 the week’s value low; stay under and 4638.20 opens the gate to 4618.90.
The Calendar
Thursday, August 27 (all times CT):
- 7:30 Weekly jobless claims and continuing claims, with the advance goods trade balance and the wholesale and retail inventory numbers alongside them
- 9:30 Weekly natural gas storage
- 10:00 Kansas City Fed manufacturing and composite indexes for August
- 10:30 Four and eight week bill auctions
- 12:00 Seven year note auction
- 3:30 Fed balance sheet
The seven year at noon is the only thing on here that reaches the long end, and the symposium out west says nothing until tomorrow.
The Plan
ES:
7718.25 is the floor the night built its whole cage on and ES has already given it up. Reclaim 7726, the print the night built on, and 7734.50 the ceiling of that value is the first work, then 7741.25 where the week topped out with 7744 last week’s value ceiling stacked right over it. Clear that shelf and 7775 the POC August built is the next thing with real volume behind it, with 7818 August’s ceiling over that. The honest problem is that all of it happened while nobody was awake and 7741.25 printed exactly once, so nothing up there has been ratified. Give up 7718.25 and 7706.75 catches, then 7696.50 Wednesday’s ceiling and 7693 August’s value low, with 7690 the print and 7681.75 where its value began under them, and 7657.75 last week’s low and 7611 July’s ceiling beneath that.
NQ:
29600 is one price carrying two timeframes, last week’s POC and July’s POC on the same number, and NQ has already been up to it and come off. Take it back and 29634.25, the ceiling the session built, is the job, then 29661.75, the highest the week has traded. Clear that and 29683.50 last week’s value ceiling is all that stands under 29931.50. Buying it here is buying a shelf the night already tried and failed to hold, with the entire cage built underneath at 29504, so the volume is below price and not through it. Under 29504 the low of the night at 29402.50 opens 29368.50 Wednesday’s high and 29307 its ceiling, with 29292.20 last week’s value low, 29280 the print and 29219.20 the base August left beneath them.
CL:
82.34 is the print the week built itself around and crude has cleared it, running 82.81 for a fresh overnight high. Hold 82.43 the night’s ceiling and 82.80 Wednesday’s is the gate, then 83.30 the high it made. Above those, 84.37 the week’s ceiling and 84.36 last week’s value low are the same shelf, with 86.16 August’s ceiling over it. Two nights running crude has made the identical round trip and settled back near where it started, so I want somebody to actually accept a price before I trust the repair. Drop 82.24 Wednesday’s print and 81.55 catches, then 81.44 and 81.26 where Wednesday’s value began, with 80.80 last week’s low sitting on 80, the POC July left.
GC:
4646.40 is the floor of the value the night rebuilt and gold has already lost it, trading 4639.70 with 4638.20 Wednesday’s low right underneath. Hold 4646.40 and 4653.20 Wednesday’s print is where it starts, then 4666.50 where the week’s value begins and 4685 the night’s ceiling. Clear those and 4690.40 last week’s high with Wednesday’s 4690 stacked on it is the gate to 4695 the week’s print and 4721.20 its ceiling. The break under 4638.20 failed and got bought, which is the bull case, but the week’s entire value still sits above price and every push at it since Monday has been sold. Break 4646.40 and 4644.40 goes, then 4638.20 is the gate to 4618.90 with 4614.30 last week’s ceiling under it, and nothing structural beneath that until 4545 the POC last week built.
The White Van Stuff
Both index books rebuilt overnight on the back of one earnings number and the same-day lids ended up underneath price on both of them. Crude’s book is the tightest of the four, and gold’s structural marks are stranded so far below the market they may as well not be there. The equity cage moved up a floor while the two commodities kept theirs exactly where it was.
ES: ES cleared 7720 in the night and has come all the way back through it, which makes that number the whole fight this morning. The lid this book gives it today is 7750 and the pivot is 7695, so price is between them with nothing close on either side. Price is 7711.75, under the 7720.
NQ: NQ is over 29500, the same-day lid, after spending all of Wednesday underneath it. The heaviest mark in this book is 29600, the same number the structure read lands on, and price has already been turned away there once. Price is 29528.75, over the lid and under the 29600.
CL: Crude took 82.25 back overnight, the pivot in this book, and has kept going. 83.00 is the lid for the day and 81.00 the floor, and price is working the top half of that cage. Price is 82.67, under the 83.00.
GC: Gold’s structural marks are stranded a long way under the market, the cap at 4510 and the magnet at 4340, so only the same-day levels are doing any work today. 4675 is the pivot and gold sits well under it, with 4650 the heaviest mark in the book now overhead. Price is 4639.70, under the 4650.
Cheers. and remember..
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