The Tape
ES put in the repair day Wednesday, grinding from a 7589 open to a 7614 close on a 7613 POC with value 7600 to 7619, buying that held into the bell. The overnight opened 7622 and tagged 7632, then the chip flush dragged it to 7580.50 before it climbed back. It sits 7596, right on yesterday’s value floor at 7600, with the week’s POC at 7590 and July’s at 7588 stacked just underneath. Hold that stack and the reclaim runs 7613 the POC, 7619 the value top, then 7626 yesterday’s high. Lose 7580.50 the overnight low and it opens 7571 yesterday’s low, 7568 the week value floor, then 7542 July’s floor.
NQ ran to 30040 early Wednesday and got sold the rest of the session, closing 29695 on a 29600 POC with value 29409 to 29805, a giant two-sided day that settled nothing. The overnight settled it, flushing from 29797 through yesterday’s 29397 low all the way to 29361. It sits 29456, out the bottom of yesterday’s value and below everything that matters. Reclaim 29409 the value floor and the repair runs 29527 the overnight value low, 29600 the POC, then 29700 where June, July, and this week all stacked their volume. Stay below it and 29361 gives to 29350 last week’s POC and 29303 the week low, with air to 29234 under that.
CL kept grinding Wednesday, ranging 78.19 to 80.68 and closing 80.22 on a 79.85 POC, the third straight session it refused to give the breakout back. The overnight dipped to 78.91 and got bought straight back to 80.73. It sits 80.34, pressing 80.96 the week high with nothing built overhead if that goes. Below 79.85 the POC and 79.24 the value floor, 78.19 yesterday’s low is the last session shelf before 77.50 the week’s value base. Under that the gap runs long, 73.75 July’s POC and 72 where last week did its business.
GC tried to bounce Wednesday, closing 4067 on a 4036 POC after defending 4033 all session, and the overnight took the attempt apart. It broke 4000 in the night and printed 3977. It sits 3997, under yesterday’s 4026 value floor, under the week’s 4034 base, under July’s 4040, sitting almost on top of 3975, the June low. Reclaim 4000 and then 4014 the overnight value floor, 4026, and 4036 the POC to call this a trap. Accept below 3977 and June’s floor at 3975 is the last line on the summer’s map.
The Calendar
Thursday, July 16 (all times CT):
- 7:30 Retail Sales for June, jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed survey, all landed before the open
- 9:00 NAHB homebuilder sentiment and business inventories
- 9:30 Natural gas inventories
- 11:30 Fed’s Logan
- 6:00 pm Fed’s Jefferson, well after the close
The morning batch is already on the tape. Logan at 11:30 is the only voice left that can move it during the session.
The Plan
ES:
The whole read is the stack: 7590 the week’s POC, 7588 July’s POC, and 7586 last week’s POC all parked within a few ticks, right under yesterday’s 7600 value floor where price is sitting. Hold 7588 and the day is a repair job, first through 7606 the session VWAP, then 7613 yesterday’s POC and 7619 the value top. Clear those and 7626 yesterday’s high and 7632 the overnight high are the range, with 7647 June’s value top the extension in clean air. Lose the stack and 7580.50 the flush low goes first, then 7571 yesterday’s low and 7568 the week’s value floor. Under that it is 7542 July’s value base, then 7530 last week’s floor, with 7451 June’s value low the deep anchor.
NQ:
NQ is the broken one and 29409, yesterday’s value floor, is the whole morning. Below it the tape is in price discovery down: 29361 where the night bottomed first, then 29350 last week’s POC and 29303 the week low. Accept under those and there is air to 29234 last week’s value floor, then 29034 where last week and the month both bottomed. Reclaim 29409 and the repair gets going, 29527 the overnight value floor, 29600 yesterday’s POC, then the big one at 29700 where June, July, and this week all built their heaviest volume. Above 29700 the flush is dead and 29805 yesterday’s value top and 30040 yesterday’s high come back onto the map.
CL:
Crude’s game has not changed in three sessions: hold the base, press the top. 79.85 yesterday’s POC is the trigger with 79.24 the value floor right under it, and above them the tape keeps pressing 80.68 yesterday’s high, 80.73 the overnight high, and 80.96 the week high. Through the week high there is nothing on the profile, clean air with the next structure from June’s spike zone far above. Below 79.24 the base cracks and 78.91 the overnight low goes first, then 78.19 yesterday’s low. Lose that and 77.50 the week’s value floor is the last shelf before the vacuum, 73.75 July’s POC and 72 last week’s POC the levels the gap fills to, with 70 June’s POC underneath.
GC:
Gold broke the number everyone was watching and now has to answer for it. 4000 is the trigger, and below it the map is short: 3983 July’s low, 3977 last night’s print, 3975 June’s low, three floors within a handful of ticks that are the difference between a flush and a breakdown. Accept below 3975 and the profile has nothing to offer underneath, price discovery in territory the year has not traded. Reclaim 4000 and the repair runs 4014 the overnight value floor, then 4026 yesterday’s value base, then 4036 yesterday’s POC. Above that 4064 yesterday’s value top and 4072 the overnight high put the fade back in its cage, with 4080 last week’s value floor the level that says the whole break failed.
The White Van Stuff
The fear rebuilt overnight in exactly one place, tech. NQ’s book is priced for a day more than twice as wide as the broad index with its downside structure suddenly live, while crude sits on top of a flipped cage with the loudest vol on the board, and gold just fell out the bottom of its own floor with the entire structure stacked overhead.
ES: The broad book stayed calm through the flush, priced for a tight session with price sitting just under the 7600 same-day pivot. The interest is stacked overhead from 7625 to the 7700 cap, and the floor for the day sits at 7575 with the bigger shelf at 7550. It sits 7596, under the pivot, over the 7580 shelf.
NQ: The tech book carries the day’s real risk, the band wide and the downside now in play. Price sits under the 29625 same-day pivot with the cap at 29800 overhead, and the floor structure runs 29500 down to 29300 with the deep floor at 28500. It sits 29456, under the pivot, over the 29300 shelf.
CL: Crude’s positioning finally caught up to price and put a lid right where it trades, the 81 cap sitting on top of the tape with vol still the loudest of the four. The floor structure is stacked at 78 with the old magnet way down at 72, and the expected day runs 76.48 to 82.72. It sits 80.34, right under the 81 cap.
GC: Gold is trading under its own floor, the 4000 line that was supposed to hold the book up now sitting overhead. Everything is stacked above it, the 4050 same-day pivot, the 4075 magnet, the 4085 same-day cap, a full staircase of interest price has to climb back through. It sits 3997, under the floor, pressing the 3998 expected low.
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