NQ V-ed off 29034 Wednesday and has not looked back, ES climbed back over the shelf it lost Tuesday, and gold, the chart I buried Tuesday, finally caught its bid overnight. The bounce earns respect now. What it does not earn is a chase, because NQ is walking straight into 29700, the exact price June built its whole floor on and where the sellers have camped all summer. And the tape is not trading the way you would expect: the US hit Iran again overnight, Iran answered at the Gulf, and equities are green into a shooting war while crude spiked and got sold for the tenth straight time.
The Tape
ES put in a repair day Wednesday, opening 7507, flushing to 7469 early, then grinding back all session to close 7526.75 right on its 7527 POC. The overnight held every bit of that, built value 7530 to 7553 around a 7552 POC and ran to 7558 before settling to sit 7546. That puts it back above yesterday’s value and pressed under the 7552 to 7567 band, the overnight POC stacked on last week’s and this week’s volume line. Reclaim that band and 7594, the wall it lost Tuesday, comes back into range. Lose 7527 and the shelf gives to 7500 yesterday’s floor, then 7497 last week’s floor, then 7469 the low that has held twice.
NQ was the engine Wednesday, opening 29202, knifing to 29034, then running the whole session to close 29457 on a 29400 POC, a full V off the lows. The overnight extended it, tagging 29735 and parking value up around a 29620 POC, and it sits 29699 pressed against 29700, where June built its entire floor. Above 29735 the overnight high there is air to 30029 July’s value high, with 30250 last week’s POC and 30356 July’s high stacked past it. Below, 29620 the overnight POC sits on 29619 last week’s value floor, then 29495 the overnight base and 29350 the week’s volume line. Under 29350 it is 29265 June’s value low, then the 29034 double-bottom under everything.
CL spiked to 76.08 Wednesday on the overnight headline and gave the whole thing back to close 74.07, right on its 74 POC, a blowoff and a fade in one session. The overnight did it again in miniature, popping to 75.13, flushing to 72.37, and clawing back to sit 73.95 on the same 74 line. That keeps it pinned to the price everything is deciding at, with 74.60 the overnight ceiling and 75.13 guarding 76.08 the high above. Hold the 73 shelf and the new range builds 73 to 76. Lose 72.37 the overnight low and there is nothing built until 70.47 the week POC and 70, where June parked its volume on the round number.
GC bounced Wednesday, dipping to 4032 and recovering to close 4090, but it stayed capped under 4101 all day. The overnight is where it woke up, ripping from 4073 clean through that lid to 4127 and building value up at a 4115 POC, the safe-haven bid I said had no pulse showing up a day late. It sits 4122, back above its whole recent range and pressing 4125 last week’s value high and 4127 the overnight top. Clear those and 4157 this week’s volume line opens, then 4162 July’s value ceiling and 4192, the double-print high that has capped every push. Lose 4083 yesterday’s POC and the reclaim is a fake, back to 4063 the overnight low and 4041 last week’s POC underneath.
The Calendar
Thursday, July 9 (all times CT):
- 7:30 Initial jobless claims
- 8:00 Fed’s Williams speaks
- 9:00 Existing home sales for June
- 9:30 EIA natural gas storage
- 12:00 30-year bond auction
- 12:30 Fed’s Logan speaks
The Plan
ES:
ES is coiled 7546 under the 7552 to 7567 band, the overnight volume line sitting on last week’s and this week’s POC in one spot. Accept above 7552 and the repair runs 7567 the week POC, 7578 last week’s ceiling, then 7582 July’s value high into 7594, the wall it lost Tuesday, with 7600 and 7602 the week high on top of it. Hold 7530 the overnight value floor and the bounce keeps its base. Lose it and 7527 yesterday’s POC goes, then 7512 July’s value low and 7500 yesterday’s floor, with 7497 last week’s floor the gate. Under 7497 it is air to 7469 the low that held twice, then 7451 June’s value floor.
NQ:
NQ is pressed 29699 into 29700, the June POC and the roof on this two-day bounce. Through 29735 the overnight top there is nothing but air to 30029 July’s value high, then 30250 last week’s POC and 30356 July’s high above that. Hold 29620 the overnight POC, sitting right on 29619 last week’s value floor, and the bounce stays intact. Lose it and 29495 the overnight base gives, then 29350 the week POC is the magnet. Under 29350 it is 29265 June’s value low, then 29034 the double-bottom where the whole move started.
CL:
Crude is digesting the spike right on 74, the yesterday and overnight POC in the same spot. Accept above 74.60 the overnight ceiling and the push runs 75.13 the overnight peak, then 75.29 yesterday’s value high and 76.08 the high, with 78.81 June’s value ceiling the only real structure above that. Hold the 73 shelf, 73.40 yesterday’s value floor over 73.24 the overnight base, and the range holds. Lose 72.37 the overnight low and it is air down to 70.47 the week POC. Then 70, June’s POC on the round number, with 68.56 June’s value low under it.
GC:
Gold took its whole range back overnight and sits 4122, pressed on 4125 last week’s value high and 4127 last night’s high. Clear that pair and 4157 this week’s volume line opens, then 4162 July’s value ceiling and 4192, the double-print high that has been the lid on every rally for two weeks. Hold 4115 the overnight volume line and the reclaim has a base. Lose 4083 yesterday’s POC and the overnight rip was a trap, back to 4063 the overnight low and 4055 yesterday’s value floor. Under that it is 4041 last week’s POC on 4032 the low, the bottom of the whole range.
The White Van Stuff
The books split hard overnight. Equity protection stays cheap even with headlines crossing the wire, the S&P band under a percent while the Nasdaq runs half again as wide with price right under its ceiling. Gold is the mirror of Tuesday: it cleared its ceiling and tagged the top of its expected day, the only chart on the board trading over the line instead of under it.
ES opens just below its whole same-day stack, the 7550 to 7575 shelf of interest overhead with the cap on top of it. The 7525 pivot and the 7500 put floor are the lines underneath, and the expected day runs a tight 7470 to 7587. It sits 7546, pressed under the book.
NQ carries the loud book and it is sitting right on the fight: the cap at 29700 is the exact line price is pressing, the same number as the ceiling on the standard map. The 29460 pivot and the 29000 put floor sit well below, the expected day near a percent and a half wide. It sits 29699, nose against the line.
CL owns the loudest book and the most two-sided one after the round trip. The 75 and 76 caps stack the ceiling, the 72 same-day floor and 70 put floor anchor the bottom, and the expected day is wide at 71 to 76. It sits 73.95, mid-band between a cleared spike and the 75 line.
GC is the standout, the only book trading over its ceiling after clearing 4113 overnight and running to the 4131 expected high. The 4083 pivot and the 4064 floor are under price now, flipped from resistance to support. It sits 4122, stretched to the top of its band.
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