Another morning, another hot inflation number that we will likely shake off. PPI just printed ugly on the headline with energy doing the damage again, the same split as yesterday’s CPI, and the overnight bounce in the indexes got slapped back down within minutes of the release. With US strikes on Iran in their second day, crude is flip-flopping both ways. CL might be the only chart on my screen that looks like it knows what it’s doing. Seems like we are just going to be widely rangebound this week. I’m all for it, fun week to trade.
The Tape
ES spent Wednesday unloading, opening 7355, tagging 7404.75 early, and selling the rest of the session into a 7276 close on the dead lows. The overnight bounced it to 7338.75, right into the week’s 7332 value floor from below, and the hot number this morning knocked it straight back down. It sits 7300, pressing the 7294.75 overnight low with Wednesday’s 7280.5 value floor right underneath.
NQ ran the same play, a 28853 open, a 29250 morning pop, and a bleed into a 28525.75 close near the low. The overnight clawed back to 28936 and got rejected one point under last week’s 28974 low, then the number sent it back down. It’s sitting 28721 on a double floor where Wednesday’s 28699.75 value base and the 28685.5 overnight low stack.
CL was Wednesday’s strong chart, running 91.83 and settling 90.42 above its 90.00 POC. The overnight drained it all the way to 88.63, then the hot print lit it right back up to 91.48, because energy is the part of these inflation numbers doing the damage. It sits 90.78, back above Wednesday’s POC and pressing the 90.86 prior-week floor.
GC is on day three of the bleed. Wednesday bounced to 4209.7 and sold to a 4106 close, then the overnight snapped the 4105 floor the week had been standing on and the print drove it to 4078.2. It sits 4079 with the 4096 overnight value floor overhead and nothing left on the chart below it.
The Calendar
- 7:30 AM CT, PPI (May) and weekly jobless claims, already printed: headline hot on energy again, core soft, claims a touch higher
- 9:30 AM CT, EIA natural gas storage
- 12:00 PM CT, 30-Year Bond Auction
The Plan
ES:
ES comes out of the number at 7300, under the 7320 Wednesday POC and pressing the 7294.75 overnight low. Reclaim 7320 and the repair runs the 7333 zone where the overnight POC and the week’s value floor sit together, then 7338 where May’s base meets the overnight high, with 7360 Wednesday’s value ceiling and 7379 last week’s low behind it before 7416 week POC and 7420 May POC. Lose 7294.75 and floor at 7280.5 and the 7275 low are the first nets, then 7247 the week low is the last shelf before air down to May’s 7199 base. Two hot prints in two days mean the bounce crowd is on its third strike, so let 7320 prove itself before believing any green.
NQ:
NQ is parked 28721 on the double floor, Wednesday’s 28699.75 value base and the 28685.5 overnight low, after the 28936 bounce got rejected one point under last week’s 28974 low. Hold it and reclaim 28769 overnight value, and the test runs 28823 week value floor, then 28920 where the overnight built its volume and the 28936 high into that 28974 line. Through 28974 the repair gets real, 29110 Wednesday’s POC, 29240 the May POC, then 29450 week POC. Lose 28685.5 and 28493 Wednesday’s low is the gate, then 28337 from May and the 28227 week low are all that’s left underneath. The 28974 fight is the only trade that matters up top.
CL:
Crude is the one with the bid, sitting 90.78 after the round trip from 91.10 down to 88.63 and back. Through 91.48 the overnight high it gets 91.83, Wednesday’s high, then 92.05 and 92.39 the week’s ceiling, with May’s 92.47 shelf and 93.00 last week’s POC the bigger lids. Hold 90.00 Wednesday’s POC and the snapback keeps its base, with 89.60 the value floor under it. Lose 89.60 and 89.43 last week’s low cracks first, then the 88.90 gate where the overnight POC and Wednesday’s low stack, with the week’s 88.14 base and its 85.94 low underneath. Headline tape both directions on this one, so size for the gaps.
GC:
Gold has one job, win back 4096 overnight value, and until it does there’s nothing to argue about. Above it 4105 is the broken floor, Wednesday’s low and the week low together, then 4116 the overnight POC, 4127 Wednesday’s value floor, and the 4133.6 high before the 4156 line where Wednesday’s POC and the week POC sit stacked. The repair lines above that are far, 4209 Wednesday’s high, 4338 last week’s low, 4409 the May low. Below, 4078.2 is the only number left, and under it the chart is blank. Three days of this and every bounce has been a sale, so I’m not interested in being early.
The White Van Stuff
Both index books lean defensive again and their same-day surfaces sit almost entirely overhead after the print, ES’s so twisted its same-day put floor is parked above its same-day cap. Crude carries the only call-side lean on the board, with a heavy lid starting at 94.
ES at 7300 has nothing same-day underneath except stacked interest every 25 handles down to the 7200 put floor. The 7375 cap and magnet, the 7380 flipped floor, and the 7400 pivot are all glued together overhead, one zone that decides any bounce. A book this inverted means the strikes haven’t caught up to the selling yet.
NQ has the loudest level on the board, the 28975 cap and magnet sitting one point above last week’s 28974 low, and the overnight rejected it exactly. The 27930 expected low is the deep line if the 28686 floor goes. Until 28975 clears, the book says sell the bounce.
CL is the only book leaning up, but the lid is real, the 94 cap and magnet stacked with heavy interest at 94.50 and 95. The 93.29 expected high is the stretch past the overnight’s 91.48. Vol here is still the loudest of the four, so the band runs 86.77 to 93.29 and crude’s been using all of it.
GC broke below its book again, the 4125 same-day put floor flipped overhead with the 4174 cap and magnet the far lid. Under price there’s the 4075 shelf, the 4043 expected low, then the book just ends. A lean this one-sided sells bounces until it stops working, and it hasn’t stopped yet.
Two mornings, two hot numbers, same lesson. The levels don’t care whether you believe. Does the market even care about inflation anymore?
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