The Fed finally said the quiet part out loud, and for one afternoon, the bears got paid. Its over now as we are so back once again. Warsh’s first meeting left rates alone but the dot plot flipped to where a hike is on the table and a cut is a 2027 problem, and the indexes sold the whole thing into the close. ES and NQ both went out on the lows, gold got hauled behind the woodshed from 4403 down to a 4254 close. Then the screen rewrote itself overnight. Somebody decided Intel and Apple building chips together is the only story that matters, the semis ripped, and the indexes clawed the entire drop right back. Guess we are just going to forget about Apple also saying they're raising prices due to the rise in commodity prices. Gold is the one chart that never got the second memo.
The Tape
ES opened 7595 Wednesday, tagged 7604, then sold the decision all afternoon down to 7472 and closed 7492 on the lows, value 7535 to 7599 around a 7586 POC. The overnight bought every bit of it back, basing 7530 to 7568 and dragging price to 7558 on the 7555 session POC, back under the 7572 week value floor it lost on the way down. Reclaim 7572 and yesterday’s 7586 POC and the repair runs 7613 the week POC then 7636 the week’s ceiling. Lose 7540 the session floor and 7530 the overnight low and 7492 reopens, then 7472 where yesterday and the week share a low. It sits 7558, a full round trip back to value.
NQ took the worst of it, opening 30526, failing 30545, and sliding to 29923 before closing 29994 near the lows, a hollow session with the 30450 POC stranded up top. The semis dragged it straight back overnight, running 30500 and reclaiming that 30450 POC where it sits 30485 now. Through 30500 the overnight high and 30510 yesterday’s value top, the path opens 30737 the week’s value ceiling and 30820 June’s, with 30915 the week high above. Lose 30400 the session POC and 30335 the floor and 30266 yesterday’s value low catches it, then 30139 last week’s high, 30065 the week and month floor, into 29524 last week’s volume shelf. It sits 30485, back above the line it lost.
CL poked 80 on the Wednesday spike, couldn’t hold it, and closed 75.99 with value 76.18 to 77.54 around a 76.61 POC. The overnight kept leaning, carving a fresh 74.13 low on the peace optimism before settling 75.2, under everything it built and under the 76 week POC. The real volume does not show up again until 80.25 the week’s value top, then the pre-crash shelf at 87.38 last week’s floor and 91.30 the prior-week POC miles overhead. Reclaim 75.62 the session top and 76.18 yesterday’s value low and a repair starts, otherwise lose 74.77 the session floor and 74.13 the overnight bottom and price is into the 73s where almost nothing has traded. It sits 75.2, pinned at the lows.
GC is the wreck of the group, spiking to 4403 Wednesday before the projections flipped it and gold collapsed to 4237, closing 4254 with the 4250 POC built on the way down. The overnight gave a dead-cat push toward 4345 and got sold again, printing a fresh 4257 low and sitting 4269 now, below the 4335 session POC and the 4335 week value floor. Reclaim 4285 the session value low and 4335 and the bounce has a case toward 4361 the week POC and 4364 yesterday’s value top. Lose 4257 the overnight low, with 4254 yesterday’s close and 4237 the session and week low cracks, opening air to 4175 where last week’s volume sits, then 4073 the value base under it. It sits 4269, below every line that mattered.
The Calendar
- 7:30 AM CT, weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed factory read
- 9:00 AM CT, the Leading Index
- 9:30 AM CT, weekly natural gas storage
- 12:00 PM CT, the oil rig count
The Plan
ES:
ES round-tripped the decision and sits 7558 right back on the 7555 session POC, a hair under the 7572 week value floor it lost in the selloff. Reclaim 7572 and yesterday’s 7586 POC and the repair runs 7599 yesterday’s value top, 7613 the week and month POC stacked together, then 7636 the week’s ceiling and 7647 June’s, with 7649 the week high and 7693 the month high the air above that. Hold 7540 the session floor and the dip stays a bounce. Below 7540 fails and 7530 the overnight low goes, then 7492 yesterday’s close and 7472 where yesterday and the week share a low. Under that it opens to 7499 last week’s POC and 7420 last week’s value floor where the prior leg did its work.
NQ:
NQ reclaimed the 30450 Wednesday POC overnight on the back of the chip trade and sits 30485 with the bounce intact as long as it holds there. Through 30500 the overnight high and 30510 Wednesday’s value top, the recovery targets 30695 May’s POC, 30737 the week’s upper value, and 30820 June’s, with 30915 the week high and 31100 the month high the prize above. Hold 30450 and dips stay buyable against the session base. Below 30400 the session POC and 30335 the floor fails, 30266 Wednesday’s value low catches the first leg, then 30139 last week’s high and 30065 where the week and month value bottom out. Under that the air runs to 29524 last week’s high-volume shelf.
CL:
Crude is trading 75.2 under everything, with the 75.62 session top and the 76 week POC the first two lines it has to win back. Reclaim them and 76.18 Wednesday’s value low and the repair argument starts, but the next real volume is stranded way up at 80.25 the week’s upper edge, then 87.38 last week’s floor and 91.30 last week’s POC where the pre-crash shelf sits. Hold 74.77 the session floor and the slide pauses. Lose 74.77 and 74.13 the overnight bottom and there is no profile underneath, just the 73 and 72 round numbers price has not touched in months. Below 72 the next built volume does not arrive until 70 round.
GC:
Gold is the one that broke, trading 4269 with value gone above it, the 4285 session low and the 4335 week floor both lost on the way down. Reclaim 4285 and 4335 the session POC and the bounce has a target at 4361 the week POC, 4364 Wednesday’s value top, then 4388 the week’s high edge and 4403 where Wednesday and the week share a high. Hold 4257 the overnight base and the range holds together. Lose 4257 and 4254 Wednesday’s close and 4237 the session and week low cracks, opening air to 4175 the prior-week volume pocket. Under that it runs to 4103 June’s value floor and 4073 last week’s value base.
The White Van Stuff
The hawkish projections reset every book on the screen. The index surfaces stayed tight and balanced even through the round trip, both sitting right at the top of their expected day with the real caps a long way overhead. Crude’s book is still the loudest by a mile, run below its floor again, while gold spent the night falling clean out the bottom of its own expected range.
ES has a calm, balanced book, the expected day only nine-tenths of a percent wide and price sitting right on the 7564 top of it. The 7545 magnet is the line directly under price, the 7800 cap a different planet overhead, and yesterday’s same-day floor at 7490 now sits below price after the bounce.
NQ‘s book leans heavier on the put side than the index above it, but price still ran to the 30466 top of its expected day overnight. The 30750 same-day cap and the 31000 cap are the lines a breakout aims at, while the 30225 magnet and the 30200 same-day floor stack just beneath price.
CL still owns the loudest book on the board, the magnet parked way up at 83.6 and the cap a different universe at 101. Down at price the lines that matter are the 75.77 same-day floor it just lost overhead and the 74.41 expected low beneath, with 72.74 the last real interest under that.
GC spent the night falling clean out the bottom of its expected day, price 4269 now under both the 4306 expected low and the 4328 magnet that should have caught it. The 4228 same-day floor is the next real line beneath, with the caps stacked overhead at 4383 and 4422.
Trust your prep. Trade your levels. The rest is noise. Don’t come on our stream and complain.
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