Three days of getting the AI trade torched, and one earnings call after the bell handed it all back. Micron printed numbers that did not leave much room for argument, the chips ripped in the dark, and NQ is trading like Monday through Wednesday never happened. A true hold my beer moment. We’re so fucking back. Gold is still face-down in the dirt, crude is still leaking under 70 toward a deal nobody has signed. Balance at ATHs mixed in with a little summertime sadness. Keep it small. Racoon some points and gtfo.
The Tape
ES opened 7447 Wednesday, tagged 7496 on the morning bounce, then sold the whole session to close 7428 near the 7404 low, value 7426 to 7496 around a 7480 POC. The overnight took the chip relief and dragged it straight back up, rebuilding into that 7480 POC and pressing 7491. It sits 7475, a clean reclaim of where Wednesday’s value topped out, under the 7486 value cap and inside today’s value. Through 7491 the overnight high and 7496 Wednesday’s high, the path opens to 7543 the week and month POC. Lose 7467 the value floor and 7452 the overnight low, 7440 the week floor cracks, with 7426 Wednesday’s value low under it.
NQ did the real damage Wednesday, opening 29711, failing 29907, and cutting to a 29264 low before closing 29515 near the bottom, a hollow profile with the 29703 POC stranded up top. The chip print detonated it overnight, running 30219 and rebuilding the whole upper value into a 30100 POC. It sits 30130, back above Wednesday’s entire range and the 29730 week POC, gapped clean past where the day was supposed to top. Through 30194 the top of the overnight and 30219 the high, the repair points at 30353 last week’s value floor, then 30450 last week’s POC. Lose 30100 the overnight POC and 30020 the week’s value ceiling and 29864 June’s floor catches it, then 29856 the overnight bottom.
CL rolled into its second session on the new front month, fading Wednesday from 71.04 to 69.63 and closing 70.04 on a 70 POC, value pinned 69.94 to 70.49. The overnight kept leaking, carving a fresh 68.9 low under the contract’s short floor before bouncing back to 69.82. It sits 69.82 right on the 69.63 low the new chart keeps defending, the round 70 just overhead and the old pre-roll profile stranded miles above. Reclaim 70 and 70.49 Wednesday’s value high and the rebuild gets a base toward 72 and 73. Lose 69.63 and 68.9 the overnight base, with no profile underneath, just the 68 and 67 round numbers on the fresh contract.
GC got taken apart again Wednesday, opening 4057 and sliding to a 3975.8 low before closing 4004.9 on a 4000 POC, value 3982 to 4030. The overnight gave a soft bounce between 3986 and 4017 and could not do more, the safe-haven crowd still nowhere while the rate-hike crowd runs it. It sits 3994 under the 4000 POC and the whole June value shelf, the one chart on the screen that never got the relief memo. Reclaim 4000 and 4013 the overnight VAH and 4030 Wednesday’s ceiling opens a push toward 4094 June’s floor. Lose 3986 the overnight base, then 3976 where Wednesday, the week, and June all share a low and the air opens under, 3950 the next round number.
The Calendar
- 7:30 AM CT, the May PCE inflation read, the Fed’s preferred gauge, stacked with durable goods, the final first-quarter GDP, and weekly jobless claims
- 9:30 AM CT, weekly natural gas storage
- 10:00 AM CT, Kansas City Fed manufacturing
- 12:00 PM CT, 7-year note auction
- 2:40 PM CT, the Fed’s Williams speaks
The Plan
ES:
ES reclaimed Wednesday’s 7480 POC overnight and sits 7475 pressing the 7486 value top, the bounce trying to prove it has legs. Through 7491 the overnight high and 7496 Wednesday’s high, the upside opens 7543 where the week and June POC stack, then 7558 the week value top sitting on last week’s floor, 7599 the week high, and 7613 last week’s POC where the real volume waits. Hold 7467 the overnight floor and the dip stays a bounce. Below 7467 and 7452 the overnight low fails, 7440 the week floor catches the first leg, then 7426 Wednesday’s value low and 7404 where Wednesday and the week share a low. Under that there is no profile built until 7307 June’s low where the month did its business.
NQ:
NQ clawed back everything it lost overnight and sits 30130 back over Wednesday’s whole range, the chip print turning the worst session of the run into a gap straight back up. Through 30194 the top of the overnight and 30219 the high, the recovery targets 30353 last week’s value floor, then 30450 last week’s POC and 30620 June’s POC stacked above, with 30759 last week’s value ceiling and 30915 the high the prize beyond. Hold 30100 the overnight POC and the gap stays bought. Below it 30020 the week’s value ceiling and 29864 June’s floor fail, 29856 the overnight low goes, then 29730 the week POC and 29515 Wednesday’s close. Under that 29264 the Wednesday and week low is the gate, with 28506 June’s low where the month’s volume base sits beneath it.
CL:
Crude is two sessions into the new front month and trades 69.82, leaning on the 69.63 low the fresh chart keeps defending with the round 70 just above. Reclaim 70 and 70.49 Wednesday’s value high and the rebuild gets a base toward 71, then 72 and 73 where the early volume on the contract starts to cluster. Hold 69.63 and the floor holds. Lose 69.63 and 68.9 the overnight bottom and there is no profile built underneath on the new contract, just the 68 then 67 round numbers below.
GC:
Gold is the holdout, trading 3994 under the 4000 POC and the entire June value shelf with no safe-haven bid showing up. Reclaim 4000 and 4013 the overnight VAH and 4030 Wednesday’s ceiling and the bounce has a case toward 4094 June’s value floor, then 4151 the week’s value high, 4160 last week’s low, and 4250 last week’s POC where the gold crowd lost the most. Hold 3986 the overnight bottom and the base holds together. Lose 3986 and 3976 where Wednesday, the week, and June share a low and the air opens beneath, 3950 the next round number then 3900 under it.
The White Van Stuff
The whole screen is still positioned for the downside it just traded, even with the chips ripping overnight. The put side stays loaded across both indexes, the surface tilted defensive into a tape that already broke and then snapped back. Gold gapped below its own floor again, and crude’s book is a different planet from where the fresh contract actually trades.
ES owns the calm book of the four, the expected day a single percent wide and price sitting just under the 7490 line that should pull it. The 7500 same-day cap and the 7503 expected high are the marks a continuation has to clear, the 7400 interest shelf the first real thing beneath.
NQ carries the loud book, the expected day pushing 1.72 percent wide, and the overnight rip ran it clean past the 30022 top of that range. Price sits right on the 30120 same-day cap with the 30022 expected high flipped underneath, the 29825 magnet beneath that.
CL still owns the loudest surface on the board, the 90 cap and the 79 magnet a universe away from a contract trading under 70. Down at price the 72.27 expected high caps any bounce and the 70 floor sits right overhead, the 68.41 expected low the line just beneath.
GC gapped clean below its own floor again, the 4000 put floor now a line overhead instead of under price. The 4075 expected high caps the bounce, the 4290 magnet a long way up, and the 3942 expected low the next real mark beneath.
The levels are there. The map is drawn. Just read the tape.
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