The Game Plan: Thursday, June 4, 2026
"He's worried! You cut him! You hurt him! You see? You see? He's not a machine, he's a man!"
First real punch to the long side in a while. The chip names cracked it, Broadcom and CrowdStrike both whiffed on earnings after the bell and the whole semi complex got dumped, so NQ took the elevator down overnight while ES leaked back into last week’s range. Gold finally showed up to the party, it ignored the entire run, catching a safety bid right as everything else got sold. Crude handed back the whole four-leg rip as the Iran headlines cooled. Jobless Claims at 7:30 is the only number and it’s a small one, so last night’s earnings damage is the whole story into the open. As i’ve said for weeks though, there’s no point in trusting sellers yet.
The Tape
ES faded off Wednesday’s 7614 push to close 7572 on the POC, a rotation-down finish that gave back the upper half of the range. The overnight kept leaking, sliding to 7524 before parking value 7533 to 7548 with price back at 7546 on session VWAP. It’s sitting below all of Wednesday’s value and back inside last week’s range, under the 7595 line that capped the prior week. Bull case reclaims 7570 yest VAL and works toward 7586 the week’s value floor. Bear case loses 7536 prev week VAL and 7524 overnight low, and the air opens toward 7515 then 7420.
NQ stamped a fresh 30807 record Wednesday then closed 30635, a distribution finish that left the high hanging. The overnight is where it broke, dumping clean through the week low to 30164 before bouncing to 30283, value gutted down at 30275 to 30543. It’s the one that took the damage, trading below the entire week’s value and pinned right under the 30303 line that held last week. Bull case reclaims 30303 then 30392 VWAP back toward the 30500 shelf. Bear case loses 30275 overnight VAL, then 30164 low, and it’s air to 30000 then 29828 where last week built.
CL held up near the highs Wednesday, closed 96.22 with the POC at 96 like the fourth leg had more in it. The overnight erased it, dumping to 91.91 and giving back the entire run, now 92.83 under all of Wednesday’s value. It’s back below the 93.78 week POC and leaning on the 92.47 line where last month built its value floor. Bull case reclaims 93.66 overnight VAL, then the 93.78 week POC back toward 94.69. Bear case loses 92.47 and 91.91 overnight low, and it’s air to 88.68 prev week VAL.
GC bled again Wednesday into a 4472 close at the lows, still the one asset nobody wanted. The overnight flipped it hard, bidding from 4485 up to 4542 and reclaiming everything in one push, now 4528 and back over all of Wednesday’s value. It’s pressing the 4532 shelf where last week and last month both built their POC, the line it’s failed to hold all run. Bull case clears 4532 and the 4542 overnight high toward 4564 the week high. Bear case loses 4519 week VAH and 4511 overnight VAH back into 4490.
The Calendar
- 6:30 AM CT, Challenger Job Cuts (May)
- 7:30 AM CT, Initial Jobless Claims, Q1 Labor Costs (final), Fed Barkin speaks
- 9:30 AM CT, EIA Natural Gas Storage
- 12:10 PM CT, Fed Daly speaks
The Plan
ES:
ES is coiling 7546 on the session VWAP and the 7544 today POC, back inside last week’s range after losing all of Wednesday’s value. Above 7548 the overnight VAH the reclaim runs 7568 overnight high and 7570 yest VAL, then 7575 yest POC and 7586 the week’s value floor with 7595 prev week POC the cap. Hold 7536 prev week VAL and the bounce stays alive, lose it and 7532 overnight VAL goes, then 7524 overnight low and 7515 prev week low. Below there it’s air down to 7420 May POC where the real volume sits.
NQ:
NQ is the one that broke, pinned 30283 right under the 30303 line that held last week after dumping through the whole week’s value overnight. Above 30303 the reclaim runs 30392 session VWAP and 30500 today POC, then 30536 the week’s value floor and 30575 yest VAL into 30640 week POC. Lose 30275 overnight VAL and it’s straight to 30164 the overnight low, and below there air with nothing structural until 30000 prev week POC. Past that the slide runs 29954 May VAH and 29828 prev week VAL where the deeper shelf sits. No reason to step in front of it until it reclaims 30303 and proves the flush is done.
CL:
Crude gave the whole rip back overnight and sits 92.83 leaning on the 92.47 line where last month built its value floor. Reclaim 93.66 the overnight VAL and 93.78 week POC and the bounce story is alive, then 94.25 VWAP and 94.69 the week VAH into 95.21 yest VAL. Lose 92.47 and 91.91 overnight low goes, then 91.47 week VAL cracks and it’s air down to 88.68 prev week VAL. Below there 86.35 is the prev week and May low stacked, the base crude built before the run. EIA gas at 9:30 is noise for oil, the Iran tape is the real swing factor.
GC:
Gold finally caught the bid and ripped through everything overnight, sitting 4528 right under the 4532 shelf where last week and last month both built their POC. Clear 4532 the reclaim it has chased all run, then 4542 overnight high and air up to 4564 the week high before 4626 prev week VAH. Hold 4519 week VAH and the bid stays in control, lose it and 4511 overnight VAH goes, then 4490 today POC and 4480 week POC. Below 4474 overnight VAL into 4464 week VAL it falls to 4453 the week and yest low stacked, then air to 4409 prev week and prev month low. This is the first real bid gold has had all run, so let it prove 4532 holds before trusting it.
The White Van Stuff
The chip earnings flipped the whole equity book overhead. NQ flushed straight to its expected low for the day and every bit of positioning that was support is now stacked above it, while ES leaked back under its pivot into a wall of interest overhead. Gold did the opposite, ripping clean through its expected high so the only thing left up there is the far cap, and crude’s whole band reset lower as the rip unwound.
ES slipped under the 7575 magnet overnight and the book stacks heavy right overhead into the 7600 cap. The 7513 expected low is the line that held the flush with the 7500 put floor just under it. Balanced and heavy, nothing pulling hard until the morning tape moves it.
NQ is the cleanest example of the flip. It dumped to the 30241 expected low and the entire surface that was support all run is now stacked overhead from the 30630 cap up. There’s almost nothing left below until the round number, which is exactly why the flush ran so clean.
CL band reset down to 92.52 to 99.52 as the rip unwound, and price is sitting right on the 92.52 expected low. The 93.25 pivot is the first thing overhead with the 100 cap a long way up where it stalled twice. The 87 put floor is the deep line if the give-back keeps going.
GC blew clean through the 4495 expected high on the bid, so the whole surface that was overhead is now support underneath and the only real wall left is the 4668 cap way up. The 4475 magnet and 4460 same-day cap flipped to the floor on the rip. First time the book has leaned up for gold all run.
Don’t force a hero trade on the first red open in weeks. Let the level come to you. Otherwise I’m back to a 9-5.
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