The Game Plan: Thursday, May 14, 2026
"If you want to make an omlette you've gotta break some eggs."
NQ ripped a fresh print to 29693 overnight, ten handles above yesterday’s high stack, and parked 29550 right on the overnight POC. ES followed to 7496 fresh week high. Crude lost the 100 line again to 99.60 before bouncing 100.13, its fourth weekly swing through that level. Gold whipped a fifty-handle range and parked 4708. Bears keep getting carried out on NQ. Watching sellers fumble any control makes me sick. But as I have been saying since 23k…buy the fucking dip.
What I’m Watching
ES is in price discovery above the entire prior session, sitting 7493 with the Globex high 7496.25 just overhead. Bull-case is 7480 overnight POC holds, the 7484 yesterday high / 7483.50 yesterday VAH / 7483.75 May VAH triple stack now acts as flipped support, and the upside extends through 7496 overnight high into fresh print toward 7539 expected high. Bear-case is 7480 fails, 7475 overnight VAL cracks, and 7469 yesterday POC stacked with 7468 yesterday close caps the slide back into Wednesday’s range, then 7452 week VAH and 7435 week POC catch the deeper test. Below 7435: 7427 prior week VAH, 7420 May POC, 7399 yesterday low, 7282 prev wk VAL, 7160 April POC.
NQ is whether the overnight fresh print holds or rolls like Tuesday’s 29447 probe. Wednesday closed 29476 inside value, Globex ripped to 29693 fresh ATH territory, and price parked 29550 right back on overnight POC. Bull-case is 29550 holds as the line value built around overnight, 29565 yesterday high / yesterday VAH stack reclaims, and the rebuild works through 29627 overnight VAH into 29693 the fresh high retest with 29880 expected ceiling in clean air above. Bear-case is 29550 fails, 29533 overnight VAL cracks, and the slide opens through 29476 yesterday close, 29480 yesterday POC stacked with 29495 week VAH, then 29425 week POC. Past 29425 the staircase runs through 29340 prev week high (now flipped support), 29245 yesterday VAL, 29073 week VAL, 29001 prev week VAH, 28742 week low, 28670 prev week POC, 27880 May POC.
CL is the messiest read on the board for the fourth week running. Yesterday closed 101.36 inside the prior range, Globex flushed below the 100 line to 99.60, ripped back to 102.35, and parked 100.13 right at the line. Bull-case is 100 holds, 100.73 overnight VAL and 100.81 yesterday VAL reclaim, and the staircase opens through 100.96 overnight POC, 101.01 yesterday POC, 101.36 yesterday close into the 101.73 overnight VAH and 102 May POC gate. Above 102 the upside extends to 102.35 overnight high, 102.59 yesterday VAH, 103.67 yesterday high with 104.22 May VAH the structural ceiling. Bear-case is 100 fails, 99.60 overnight low cracks, and the cascade opens through 98 week POC, 97 the magnet level, 96.14 week VAL stacked with 96.13 week low. Below 96: 95.29 May VAL, 95 prior week POC, 90.31 prev wk VAL, 89.70 April POC.
GC is whether 4673 was the give-back floor or just the first leg lower. Yesterday closed 4696 with value parked at the close, Globex ripped 17 handles to 4725.80 then dumped 53 to 4673.20, and price sits 4708 between yesterday’s VAH and overnight POC. Bull-case is 4705 overnight POC holds, 4711 overnight VAH reclaims, 4718 yesterday high tests, and the upside opens through 4725 overnight high into the 4729 week VAH gate. Above 4729 the path runs 4750 today’s cap, 4770 May VAH, 4775 prior week high. Bear-case is 4705 fails, 4696 yesterday close cracks, 4695 overnight VAL stacks with 4688 April VAL just below, and the staircase opens through 4681 yesterday VAL, 4676 yesterday low, 4673 overnight low into 4670 week VAL. Below 4670: 4652 May VAL, 4645 week low, 4584 prev wk VAL.
The Calendar
- 9:00 AM CT, Business Inventories (March)
- 9:15 AM CT, Fed Schmid Speech
- 9:30 AM CT, EIA Natural Gas Stocks
- 12:00 PM CT, Fed Bowman + Fed Hammack Speeches
- 4:45 PM CT, Fed Williams Speech
- 6:00 PM CT, Fed Barr Speech
The Plan
7484 yesterday high, the breakout line price already cleared overnight. Above 7484 holds we target 7488 overnight VAH, then 7496 overnight high. Above 7496 the upside reopens into fresh print toward 7539 expected high in clean air. Below 7484 fails and we lose 7480 overnight POC, 7475 overnight VAL, then 7469 yesterday POC stacked with 7468 yesterday close back into Wednesday’s range. Past 7468 the staircase opens through 7452 week VAH, 7435 week POC, 7428 yesterday VAL, 7427 prior week VAH stacked with 7420 May POC. Below 7420 we extend to 7399 yesterday low, 7282 prior week VAL, 7160 April POC.
The Bracket: Trigger 7484 (yesterday high, the breakout line price already cleared overnight). Above 7484 holds the cascade runs 7488 overnight VAH, 7496 overnight high, 7539 expected ceiling. Below 7484 fails through 7480 overnight POC, 7475 overnight VAL, 7469 yesterday POC, 7468 yesterday close, 7452 week VAH, 7435 week POC, 7427 prior week VAH / 7420 May POC stack, then air to 7282 prior week VAL and 7160 April POC. Voided by chop in 7480 to 7500 with no clean break either side.
29550 overnight POC, the line price coiled around overnight after the fresh print rolled back 150. Above 29550 holds we target 29565 yesterday high stacked with yesterday VAH right above, then 29627 overnight VAH, then 29693 the fresh high retest with 29880 expected ceiling in clean air. Below 29550 fails and 29533 overnight VAL cracks, then 29476 yesterday close stacked with 29480 yesterday POC opens the slide. Past 29476 the staircase runs through 29495 week VAH, 29425 week POC, 29340 prev week high (now flipped support), 29245 yesterday VAL, 29073 week VAL, 29001 prev week VAH. Below 29000 the air opens to 28742 week low, 28670 prev week POC, 27880 May POC.
The Bracket: Trigger 29550 (overnight POC, the line price coiled around after the fresh print rolled back). Above 29550 holds the path opens to 29565 yesterday high / VAH stack, 29627 overnight VAH, 29693 fresh high retest, 29880 expected ceiling. Below 29550 fails through 29533 overnight VAL, 29476 yesterday close, 29425 week POC, 29340 prev week high, 29245 yesterday VAL, 29073 week VAL, 29001 prev week VAH, then air to 28670 prev week POC and 27880 May POC. Voided by a fresh-print rejection back inside 29530 to 29580 holding through 10:00.
100, the line crude has tested four weeks running and refuses to settle either side of. Price sits 100.13 right on it after the overnight 99.60 flush. Above 100 holds we target 100.73 overnight VAL stacked with 100.81 yesterday VAL, then 100.96 overnight POC, 101.01 yesterday POC, 101.36 yesterday close, with 101.73 overnight VAH and 102 May POC the gate. Above 102 the upside extends through 102.35 overnight high, 102.59 yesterday VAH, 103.67 yesterday high to 104.22 May VAH the structural ceiling. Below 100 fails and 99.60 overnight low cracks, then 98 week POC, 97 the magnet level, 96.14 week VAL stacked with 96.13 week low. Below 96: 95 prior week POC, 95.29 May VAL, 90.31 prev wk VAL, 89.70 April POC.
The Bracket: Trigger 100 (the line crude has tested four weeks running, today’s pivot). Above 100 holds the cascade runs 100.73 overnight VAL / 100.81 yesterday VAL, 101 round, 101.01 yesterday POC, 101.36 yesterday close, 101.73 overnight VAH, 102 May POC, 102.35 overnight high, 102.59 yesterday VAH, 103.67 yesterday high, 104.22 May VAH. Below 100 fails through 99.60 overnight low, 98 week POC, 97 magnet level, 96.14 week VAL, 95 prior week POC, 95.29 May VAL, then deeper to 90.31 prior week VAL and 89.70 April POC. Voided by another chop session inside 99.80 to 100.50 with no clean acceptance either side of 100.
4705 overnight POC, the line price keeps coming back to after the 50-handle Globex whip. Above 4705 holds we target 4711 overnight VAH, 4718 yesterday high, 4725 overnight high, then 4729 week VAH the gate. Above 4729 the upside reopens to 4750 today’s cap, 4770 May VAH, 4775 prior week high. Below 4705 fails and 4696 yesterday close stacked with 4696 yesterday POC cracks, then 4695 overnight VAL, 4688 April VAL, 4681 yesterday VAL, 4676 yesterday low, 4673 overnight low open the staircase into 4670 week VAL. Below 4670: 4652 May VAL, 4645 week low, 4584.
The Bracket: Trigger 4705 (overnight POC, the line price keeps coming back to after the 50-handle Globex whip). Above 4705 holds the cascade runs 4711 overnight VAH, 4718 yesterday high, 4725 overnight high, 4729 week VAH, 4750 today’s cap, 4770 May VAH, 4775 prior week high. Below 4705 fails through 4696 yesterday close / POC stack, 4695 overnight VAL, 4688 April VAL, 4681 yesterday VAL, 4676 yesterday low, 4673 overnight low, 4670 week VAL, then air to 4652 May VAL and 4584 the multi-week low. Voided by chop inside 4695 to 4720 with no clean break either side.
The White Van Stuff
The cage expanded again on equities and tightened on the commodities. ES is parked 7493 between the 7475 today’s pivot just below and the 7500 call ceiling at price overhead, daily expected range plus or minus 0.93% (about 70 handles, 7423 to 7539). NQ is sitting 29550 above the 29400 heavy cluster and the 29330 today’s cap that just flipped support, with daily band plus or minus 1.32% (about 400 points, 29078 to 29881). Crude tagged 100.13 on the 100 call ceiling, the line capping four weekly runs in a row, daily band 97.56 to 104.48 with the 97 magnet just below. Gold settled 4708 below the 4720 today’s pivot and 4725 today’s cap with the 4750 0DTE ceiling overhead, daily band 4641 to 4772, the 4685 0DTE pivot caught the overnight dump.
ES is parked 7493 right under the 7500 call ceiling that caps every upside move from here, with the 7525 nearby above and 7539 expected ceiling defining the upper band. Above 7500 the 7525 cluster leads into the 7550, 7575, 7600 heavy interest stair ahead of price discovery. Below price the 7475 today’s pivot is the first reclaim test, then 7460 heavy interest leads to 7450 today’s put floor at the upper edge of yesterday’s range. Past 7450 the 7425 and 7400 heavy interest pair sits ahead of the 7399 expected low capping the lower band. Below 7399 the 7380 cluster catches before 7365 magnet level.
NQ is sitting 29550 above the 29330 today’s cap that capped the breakout overnight, now flipped support from below. Above price the 29600 nearby above leads into 29750 upside target, then 29880 expected ceiling tops the upper band ahead of 29900 heavy interest, 30000 structural call ceiling, and 30250 in price discovery. Below 29330 the 29300 today’s put floor catches first, then 29077 expected low caps the lower band. Past 29000 the 28990 magnet level, 28800 and 28750 heavy interest cluster cascade into 27580 standard floor where the structural anchor lives.
Crude tagged 100.13 on the 100 call ceiling that has capped four weekly runs in a row. Above 100 the 101 upside target leads into 103 heavy interest, then 104.48 expected high before 105 and 105.50 sit overhead. Below 100 the 99 heavy interest catches first, then 98 stacks with the 97 magnet level at the day’s structural anchor. Past 97 the 97.56 expected low caps the lower band, then 96, 95.50, 95 cascade into the 85 standard floor far below. Daily band about three and a half handles on either side.
Gold settled 4708 between the 4725 today’s pivot just overhead and the 4685 0DTE pivot just below. Above price the 4725 stack leads into the 4750 today’s cap, then 4772 expected high tops the upper band with 4775 heavy interest at the same line. Past 4775 the 4800 call ceiling and 4825 heavy interest sit ahead of price discovery. Below price the 4685 0DTE pivot is the first test, then 4680 heavy interest catches before the 4650 pair. Past 4650 the 4641 expected low caps the lower band ahead of the 4625, 4620 cluster cascading into the 4600 and 4450 structural floor below. Daily band about 65 handles on either side.
Go break some eggs.
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nailed the high in ES today. I'd like to know how you pull together the options data to identify those levels.