NVDA earnings came and went and the only ones who seemed to win might be the options premium guys. Wednesday flipped the script in equities and gold. ES and NQ opened lower, swept the day's low, then bid back and closed at the highs. Gold ran a wide range and closed near the top. Crude kept cracking, opened below Tuesday's close, lost 100 and finished near 98. Overnight bid CL back above 100 and pulled equities off the highs.
The Tape
ES closed Wednesday at the high with POC built late at 7451 and value compressed 7417 to 7453, the P-shape trend-up signature. The opening drive was lower, sellers tagged 7376 right at the week low layer, then the bid took over and ran the tape into the bell. Globex opened above the close, tagged 7469 fresh and faded back through 7415 overnight, parking 7427 at the line. Holding 7427 we extend to 7451 close, 7453 VAH and 7458 yest high then 7469 overnight high. Losing it opens 7417 VAL, 7415 overnight low, 7395 yest open and 7391 prev wk VAL gates 7376 yest low, 7363 prev week low and 7354 week low.
NQ closed Wednesday at the high with POC at 29321 and value 29164 to 29379, the same reversal shape as ES. The opening drive printed 29008 right at the prev wk VAL layer, then buyers stepped in and ran the tape clean into the bell. Globex parked above the close, tagged 29464 fresh and faded back through 29192, sitting 29241 under the line. Holding 29241 we extend to 29321 POC, 29379 VAH and 29395 close then 29464 overnight high. Losing it opens 29192 overnight low, 29164 VAL then 29008 yest low and 29005 prev week VAL gates 28781 week VAL, 28742 prev week low and 28663 month low.
CL cracked through 100 Wednesday closing 98.53, POC built at 98 with value 97.15 to 100.24, the trend-down day signature. Sellers pressed from the open at 101.68, the 102 layer that held through the week broke first, then 100 gave on the second test and 97 was the print before the late tape bid showed up. Globex opened 98.84, dumped one more time to 97.25 and bid back through 100, parking 100.67 just under 101.34 overnight high. Holding 100 reclaimed leads 100.24 VAH and 101.34 overnight high. Losing 100 fails 98.84 overnight open, 98 the POC, 97.25 overnight low and 96.94 yest low / week low gates 93.21 last week’s VAL, 92.83 prev week low and the 88.75 long-term magnet.
GC closed Wednesday at the high with POC at 4535 and value 4504 to 4557, the same reversal shape as equities. The opening drive ran lower into 4469 right at the prev week low layer, then the bid took the tape and gold closed on the upper end. Globex bid above the close briefly to 4544, faded to 4503 and parked 4516 inside yest value. Holding 4516 we extend to 4535 POC, 4544 overnight high, 4548 close then 4557 VAH and 4558 yest high. Losing it opens 4504 VAL, 4503 overnight low, 4500 round then 4469 yest low / week low / month low gates 4400 round and 4388 April low.
The Calendar
- 8:45 AM CT, S&P Global PMI Flash
- 9:30 AM CT, EIA Natural Gas Stocks
- 10:30 AM CT, 4-Week and 8-Week Bill Auctions
- 12:00 PM CT, 10-Year TIPS Auction
- 3:30 PM CT, Fed Balance Sheet
The Plan
ES:
7427, where Globex parked at the line after the reversal. Holding 7427 we target 7451 close, 7453 VAH and 7458 yest high then 7469 overnight high opens 7478 prev week VAH and 7540 prev week high as the upside structure. Losing 7427 fails 7417 VAL, 7415 overnight low, 7395 yest open then 7391 prev wk VAL gates 7376 yest low, 7363 prev week low and 7354 week low. Past the week low it’s clean air to 7327 May VAL, 7282 May low and 7160 April POC the deeper magnet. Jobless Claims and Philly Fed 7:30 pick the side.
NQ:
29241, where Globex parked under the line after the reversal. Holding 29241 we target 29321 POC, 29379 VAH and 29395 close then 29464 overnight high opens 29570 prev week VAH and 29782 prev week high. Losing 29241 fails 29218 week VAH, 29192 overnight low, 29164 VAL then 29008 yest low and 29005 prev week VAL gates 28781 week VAL, 28742 prev wk low and 28663 month low. Past the month low air opens to 28524 May VAL, 27622 prev month high and 27400 April POC the deeper destination. Same morning override.
CL:
100.67, the reclaim off 97.25 after Wednesday’s break of 100 took the four-week trade off the table. Holding 100 we target 100.24 yest VAH, 101.34 overnight high then 101.54 prev month high opens 102.82 yest high and 105.21 week high. Losing 100 fails 98.84 overnight open, 98 the POC, 97.25 overnight low and 96.94 yest low / week low gates 93.21 prev wk VAL and 92.83 prev week low. Past 92 it’s air to the 88.75 long-term magnet. The 100 line is the entire trade.
GC:
4516, where Globex parked inside yest value after the reversal. Holding 4516 we target 4535 POC, 4544 overnight high and 4548 close then 4557 VAH and 4558 yest high open 4664 prev week VAL as the upside cap. Losing 4516 fails 4504 VAL, 4503 overnight low, 4500 round then 4469 yest low / week low / month low gates 4388 April low. Past 4388 air opens to the deeper cascade below. The long crowd from prev month POC 4812 is still bleeding out and yields are the trade.
The White Van Stuff
The positioning cage rebuilt overnight as equities pulled back through the implied range lows and crude vol stayed bid hard. Gold’s options structure caps at 4600 with the long crowd from prev month POC still underwater. The inflation-impulse trade unwound through crude one more time.
ES sits just above today’s pivot at 7420. Same-day cap at 7530 with the structural cap at 7500. Heavy positioning piles 7475 to 7480 as the next layer.
NQ sits above today’s pivot at 29210. Same-day cap 29750 with the structural cap at 30000. Today’s put floor 28890 is the band low.
CL sits above today’s pivot at 99. Same-day cap 103 with the structural cap at 105. Asymmetric downside expected band 93.74 to 102.78 with today’s put floor 96.50 well underneath.
GC sits just above today’s pivot at 4505. Same-day cap and structural cap both at 4600 with expected hi at 4592. Today’s put floor 4490 sits underneath as the band edge.
Sometimes you eat the bear. Sometimes the bear eats you.
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