We had PCE this morning. Nothing really happened. Market seems to be sitting in balance. Waiting on the next fake news headline to cause any sort of movement. The plan hasn’t changed. Find areas of structure lower to get long into. There are no serious sellers on this tape. There are no serious people in this market and probably won’t be for a while. So buy the fucking dip where it makes sense. The bear beatings will continue.
The Tape
ES put in a quiet rotation Wednesday closing 7540 on POC with value 7529 to 7543, the tightest session of the week. Globex tagged 7557 testing the 7570 week high, then sold through yest VAL and yest low into 7505 fresh and bid back to 7521. Sits below yesterday value and below today POC 7530, with 7515 yest low / week low the gate. Holding 7515 reclaims 7529 yest VAL, 7530 today POC and 7540 yest POC then 7543 yest VAH and 7557 overnight high before 7570 week high caps. Losing 7506 fails into air down to 7448 prev week VAH, 7425 prev week POC and 7338 May VAL with 7160 April POC the deeper destination.
NQ ripped Wednesday into 30192 fresh, the same week high from Tuesday, then closed back under the 30000 line at 30047 to fail the breakout. Globex sold from 30136 down to 29763 fresh and sits at 29919 under yest VAL 29938 just over yest low 29877. The 30000 line that broke yesterday is the cap now, with 29938 yest VAL the line to reclaim back into value. Holding 29877 reclaims 29938 yest VAL, 30000 cap, 30050 yest POC then 30065 yest VAH and 30136 today high before 30192 yest high / week high. Losing 29826 week low fails 29748 prev week high to 29377 prev week VAH and 29240 prev week POC + month POC stack with 28663 prev week low / month low underneath.
CL bid back hard from the wreckage. Wednesday RTH ran 91.20 then dumped 88.48 fresh and closed 89.44 the low side, then Globex flipped and ran 92.52 fresh, parking 91.51 just over the 91 today POC. Sits above today value right at the 91.75 magnet, well off the week low and back inside the 89-92 broken zone. Holding 91 extends 91.99 today expected hi, 92.52 overnight high and 92.25 April VAH then the broken 93.90 week POC and 94.69 week VAH are the reclaim path. Losing 91 fails 90.10 today VAL, 89.95 week VAL, 89.11 overnight low then 88.48 yest low / week low gates 87.13 May low and 85 April POC where the real volume sits.
GC fell out of the bottom again overnight with no recent floor underneath. Wednesday RTH ran 4398 to 4463 and bid back to close 4449 the POC, then Globex tagged 4466 fresh before dumping 4363 the fresh low and sitting 4380 now. Sits below the whole month’s value with the prev week low at 4467 overhead, the broken zone runs from 4421 yest VAL up through 4448 yest POC and 4463 yest high. Holding 4368 reclaims 4391 today VAH, 4400 round, 4421 yest VAL through 4448 yest POC up to 4463 yest high then 4467 prev week low / month low and 4488 prev week VAL into 4506 prev week POC + week POC. Losing 4363 today low opens air with nothing recent underneath until 4300 round and 4250 the next shelf, the long crowd from prev month POC 4812 still bleeding out.
The Calendar
- 7:55 AM CT, Fed Williams Speech
- 9:00 AM CT, New Home Sales (April)
- 11:00 AM CT, EIA Crude Oil Inventory (delayed from Wed by Memorial Day)
- 12:00 PM CT, 7-Year Note Auction
- 3:30 PM CT, Fed Balance Sheet
The Plan
ES:
7515 yest low / week low is the gate, where ES sits with overnight already through it once at 7505. Holding 7515 the reclaim works 7529 yest VAL, 7530 today POC and 7540 yest POC then 7543 yest VAH and 7557 overnight high before 7570 week high is the cap. Losing 7506 overnight low fails and it is air down to 7448 prev week VAH, 7425 prev week POC where the real shelf sits. Past 7425 the slide continues to 7369 prev week VAL and 7338 May VAL with 7160 April POC the deeper destination.
NQ:
30000 is the line that flipped, the round NQ broke and lost the same session yesterday before Globex sold into 29763 fresh. Holding 29877 yest low reclaims 29938 yest VAL, 29998 overnight high then 30050 yest POC and 30065 yest VAH before 30000 caps from above and 30192 yest high / week high is the upper destination. Losing 29826 week low fails 29748 prev week high to 29704 month VAH and 29377 prev week VAH into 29240 prev week POC + month POC where the real shelf sits. Past 29240 air opens 28842 prev week VAL and 28663 prev week low / month low with 27400 April POC.
CL:
91 today POC is the coil where CL bid back after Wednesday’s flush took 88.48 fresh and Globex flipped to run 92.52 overnight. Holding 91 extends to 91.51 last, 91.99 today expected hi, 92.52 overnight high and 92.25 April VAH then the broken 93.90 week POC and 94.69 week VAH are the reclaim path, with 95.79 prev week VAL the bigger line to win back. Losing 91 fails 90.10 today VAL, 89.95 week VAL, 89.11 overnight low then 88.48 yest low / week low gates the deeper test. Past 88.48 air opens 87.13 May low and 85 April POC where crude built its base.
GC:
4400 round is the lid where Globex tagged 4466 fresh before falling out of the bottom for the second session in a row. Holding 4368 overnight low reclaims 4391 today VAH, 4400 round, 4421 yest VAL, 4448 yest POC and 4463 yest high then 4467 prev week low / month low and 4488 prev week VAL into 4506 prev week POC + week POC where the real shelf sits. Losing 4363 today low opens air with nothing recent underneath, the slide continues to 4300 round and 4250 the next shelf, with 4522 April low now broken from above as the level the long crowd from prev month POC 4812 was supposed to defend.
The White Van Stuff
The positioning cage repriced overnight as NQ closed back under the cap it cleared yesterday and gold broke every floor in the structure. Same-day put floors flipped overhead on both indices, and gold sits below the implied lo with the whole positioning surface stacked above. Crude vol stays bid hard at 59 with the 89.50 cap-flipped support sitting just under price.
ES sits at 7521 under today’s put floor 7540 with the same-day cap stacked at 7580 stacked with the structural cap. The 7495 magnet sits as the nearby below pull and the 7478 today expected lo is the band edge underneath. Put floor flipped to overhead resistance is the read.
NQ sits right at the 29930 today’s pivot and 29940 magnet stack after closing back under the 30000 cap yesterday. The cap-flipped read is exactly the setup that broke gold overnight. Today’s put floor 29700 sits as the lower edge with 29662 today expected lo just under it.
CL sits 91.51 right at the 91.75 magnet after bidding back through the 89.50 cap that flipped to support underneath. Vol stays bid hard at 59 with the whole upper cage stacked overhead and the 105 structural cap well out of reach. Today expected hi 91.99 is the first line above price.
GC broke every floor in the structure and the whole positioning surface is overhead. The 4427 today’s put floor, 4441 today’s pivot, 4466 structural floor and 4516 today’s cap + magnet stack all flipped to resistance. Downside is thin air below the overnight low.
Don’t get stuck trying to trade a slow tape all day. Look outside.
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